Typhoon Tip

That's the way to run those... Not to get into it but personally? I'm not a fan ... The specter of it has it's place, but the novelty pales compared to no power. It's just not worth it...really. Keep it spectral please -

This looks like a candidate for a pulse of cold about 1/3 or 1/2 of the way thru the event's total time table .. give or take. Without that, it'd be a cold rain with some pings that ends as wet snow, modulated for N-S thru region(s). However, what the American models are hinting, the foreign models appear more discerned, and that's that a pulse of colder air arrives and changes that illustration. If/when that happens, ice. And of course, precise timing, and precise magnitude of any such arrival dictates the amounts therein. Nothing new per climate... we've seen this countless times in the past. At some point ... a wave of cold comes in from the NNE/NE from interior Maine and there's a bit of a 925 mb level modest jet of air that probably isn't modeled with the best coherency as such but happens nonetheless... And it drills this into southern NH and eventually ...this cuts in underneath the Easterlies on-going that are on the N side of the warm front. Which by the way...ain't goin' no where The mid and upper level synoptic forcing that is the cause for elevated surface pressure pattern around the NE arc of the total cyclonic aspect, is fully integrated. That boundary approaches central Jersey and it's game over. Whatever flow of air from the south that attempts to incur upon that surface ridging is going do one of two things: go over it; flow around it. It doesn't matter exactly what the temperature is in the air mass on the polarward side of the front in this case, though cold air does add viscosity and some resistance alone. More specifically, the Euro ( and somewhat in the GGEM) we see the high pressure contouring sliding a bit more SE in eastern Ontario than the American cluster - that's an important distinction out there around 84 hours ... Personally I feel in this situation and considering climo, the American models are suspect in this case. But not every set up like this does that "tuck" routine ...and, if that were not enough, we've seen tucking succeed, and drill the temps back from 38F to 32.1 at times too. There's an opportunity for now-casting here ... This is an extremely stretched Miller B ...it's just so vastly so, that some would argue it isn't at all - also arguing because they have a narrow conception of these event types based upon idealized paradigms, and forget that those rules are meaningless ( really ..) in the atmosphere.. but I digress.. However, anytime we find antecedent +PP exerting BL resistance down the eastern side of the App's cordillera, which we do..., and you have a deep layer troposphere trough being squeezed more E of the Lakes as opposed to rotating up into Canada, ... which we do, we'll find a secondary. We do get the secondary to develop out of this mess, but it is paltry and weak because the - as said - the mechanics as stretched ... We could even call it a 'hybrid swfe/ Miller B too..

Perfect analysis! I was mentioning that to Will or Ray earlier about that "pixie growth" ...almost a secondary nucleation band under the deeper UVM aloft. Shit I've seen 1/4 mi vis in shards/shard clumps while in IP/ZR ... and what's weird is the dust dry? With ZR embedded... mess is what it is. The accreting ice kind of takes on a grayish hue to it... If it's mostly IP, that can be wicked as it pack/settles very dense at time of fall...so if you get anywhere close to 3" of that, it cretes

700 is more important for chilling down the growth region of the ambient sounding. I've seen it sleet from 8,000 feet before with a +4 wedge near Everest

12z Euro remains essentially unchanged in the general synoptic handling of the event in question... If there are detail differences they are noise most likely as the governing players are not really instructing enough demonstrative differences over the last run to assume a different surface evolution. Looks like a very tall sleet column between the Pike and Rt 2 ...with a band of some bad icing in the southern some-odd band of that... I also caution that cold will always wedge farther south than even the most "enthusiastic" hotdog vision too ... So, "IF" the present appeal works out.... ( thank god for the rest of us !) Kevin likely loses power ...

Not to be a dick and toot horns or nothin' but ... I mentioned two days ago in this thread .. somewhere, that climo alone was not in favor of the GFS solutions, then. The other aspect is that this system is actually more than merely a trough/closed broad Lakes vortex - it's really in totality a REX or quasi-REX structure with attendant blocking up higher over JB - this sort of 'closed system' is mutually reinforcing... That alone, this wasn't ever going to be about a low cutter - This is in total behaving like a -NAO west based, but technically...it's neither a west based NAO or east based/+PNAP... But just a straight up anomaly. The GFS - I don't intuit - is the right guy for handling that. For one, the model has a mid range progressivity bias that is pretty clear to those of us that are familiar with modeling behavior... and REX in general is not really conducive to pancaking/fast flow... so it's anomaly relative to the flow, too - neither of which the GFS is really cut for... Also, the more that Lakes vortex attempts to move N of our latitude, only increasing the tucking/+PP air mass potential over Ontario, so it really is almost physically impossible to warm sector given the present modeled synopsis, geography/topography and planetary circumstances et al... I agree with Ray or whomever it was that said this looks more icy to me. That was apparent back then too, hasn't changed... Altho...phoo...that's one helluva tuck in the 00z Euro. That may actually get the cold layer so damn deep that we have those micro needles and plate production happening in a roaring sleet/ZR column. Total mess... "gray ice storm" more so than clear.

Heh, reminds me identically of this Miller-A bomb that the horrible beyond belief GFS modeled, too ...

Climo alone argues the GFS is too light with it's pressures over central and eastern Canada for -1 or -2 SD trough rollin' over ORD like that... just sayn'. Looks more like ice storm for the time being ...

Doesn't work that way .. It's not like, A --> so B happens, in the greater maelstrom of the planetary atmospheric mechanics ... It's more like, A --> so B prime might yield a skip over C, so that D can gives rise to E-F-G ... but if, and only if, B ( not prime but initial condition) allowed its differential .... such that .... Nth enigma might parlay into a trough over eastern N/A if about 10 other things line up such that all that can happen. I think there's a equation for that ...

Hopefully after we’ve lost all our snow pack and just suffered two model busted bomb whiffs with 0 results… after they carried 960 ACK lows for four days first and pulled the plug on dday then that happens five days later, earliest spring in history breaks.

Has there ever been a K.U. type storm like on the Eve of Dec 31 ? There's been others spattered around the country in their own right ... but, a real low latitude Miller B bomb that crawls along the coast -

The only thing the Euro 'shows' is that it takes whatever's left over at day 6.5 and dumps it into too amplitude ...

1995's November into depths of December Holiday season was vastly superior to this, by comparison. The issue isn't 'snow on the ground' - though all subjective opinions into a blend, divided by n-complaints .. certainly snow on the grounds plays a role in how this year's, and others, are Holiday-grace judged. However, only plays a part. It's not enough. To content post as though otherwise snow on the ground is it, that's bargaining or something. We are 'suffering' too many interceding intervals of 'threat' to said snow pack, and have also verified too many of these Miller A rainers. Also, times when synoptically ( like Xmas week, although the blocking in Canada may tamp that down..) the whole-scale wants to cold roll-out back into a continental warmth. These taint this away from the better graded Holiday season Currier&Ives appeal. That's fair. I'd give this a C ... C+ in an instant of forgiving bi-polar elation... but, since this is a kitchy play-in to the insanity missive anyway ( ) I will add that if Xmas ends up bare ground, with mere glacial remnant snow packs concreting the edges of streets and parking lots, this sucker goes D- in a real f'n hurry. It's on "thin ice" I would pose the subjective argument that it doesn't even have to snow that often in the given judgement. If our region can avoid the Miller A rainers, avoid the Rosby roll-out warm assaults and say ... only snows twice with enough cold for protection, that's a solid B or even B+ grade improvement right there. A's are just rare here...too rare.. but, 1995-'96 was an A+ and is - for me - the apex metric against which all butt-soreness is either redeemed, or cast into the much bigger garbage heap of history seasons.

He always did that ... Bruce did. Soon as he said it I was like , yup ... there it is. Backlasher! the old lull before the reenergizes call. Around the time he finally realized things don’t really work out like that he retired.

You know what that strikes me as ...? heh, seein' as everyone's askin' me - But, we've got the benefit of latitudes at all times, and sometimes, ...can rely upon that as sort of 'built-in' correction vector during uglier times - which I don't think any objective observer would deny, if one is a winter enthusiast, the mid and extended range is otherwise a sore to the eyes... Anyway, rhymes aside... I'm just sayin', sneaking fronts and scooter highs and so forth...Those don't really 'fit' a teleconnector mode, per se. And can happen just as benefits for our being as far N as we are. This is really true for the NP-Lakes-N. OV and N. Mid Atlantic in addition to our area, but it seems out of all these mentioned, we have more chances to 'sneak' and save once in a while.

The NAO is fickle ... duh. I mean, we know this. And, even I was proponent for the "possibility" that more -NAO like constructs might evolve out in time, .. oh, about two or two.5 weeks ago .. thereabouts. Simply because there was a gesture then, lurking in the extended range ensembles, for cyclone trajectories to begin a more E bias of the CC lat/lon - as opposed to the other route, which curves them up into the D. Straight as transient black holes... But, that behavior in the models has not manifest its self further, since. In fact, it's gone. So as experimental as that was at the time, it was noted that there was no actual blocking being modeled in association with the suppressed cyclone traffic? Rather, it was the suppressed track alone that gave sort of an impression that a -NAO, and the supposition floated was maybe that meant one was kind of buried in the din of the background physics, and that one might emerge with more of the typical, total attributes given time... etc.. Neither has taken place. Yet, the CPC's forecast for the NAO has it neutral-negative entering week 2, with mop ended disagreement among the members. Not exactly selling confidence in the idea of -NAO. I guess in total, I'm not seeing much -NAO ...at least coming from the GEF's related products. The EPS obviously carries along it's own outrage, but I haven't seen it's fist waving. Just looking at the free sources that are out there, that can be used as "spacial extrapolators" .. unless the NAO is very westerly biased, it's hard to image ( at least thru day 10 ) being able to fit a -NAO anywhere west of 50W at high latitudes given the evolution of the wave-lengths. Excluding the possibility that the EPS has a -NAO of -2 SD pulsing perfectly not too far west to suppress the flow and speed things up and destroy all hope... I think think there is nothing to look forward to, and that people will conjure reasons to offset that despair as the main social-media thematic arc over the next ...however long it takes. Some of those alternative points of 'election' will come true - rolling dice sometimes pays off too. Most of it won't though.. But, this is by virtue a changeable engagement; that much is certain. And so with that certainly, there will definitely at some point be something ( finally) look forward to again as far as fun cinema - the game afoot is patience. Personal perspective: The NAO is far less helpful to us than most people can even begin to conceptualize, given to the intense imprinting they went through when they were coming of Meteorological age in the mid 1980s through the 1990s, when that particular teleconnector was popularized, and the boon era of mass-media weather coverage then really galvanized it too deeply the collective gestalt to ever have any hope to reality wrt to what that index means. It was like the latest and greatest diet pill - too bad those svelte users now have heart-valve trouble. No, the cold loading pattern in North American continental pattern is the NE Pac... If that happens first, then a west based -NAO block sets up as a large systemic 'relay', that can enhance cold transport into Lakes/OV/NE... But NAO's in and of themselves are a suppression storm track indication, and when the NAO is statically negative, that's not good for snow enthusiast because it compresses the flow and speeds it up too much for cyclogenesis physics. Cold? sure... You want pulsed -EPO's with pulsed +PNAs, first... then, the NAO can help or hurt, in equal measure in either direction, provided it is not 'getting in the way' and also, depending on particulars of it's integrated modulation/permutation type. None of which can really even be remotely assessed when the former is in abeyance by the hemisphere for whatever reason ... and what there is of it is a PNAP that is wildly undulating in both directions. Meanwhile, any NAO? has almost no confidence for even happening in real time and space to begin with. I will tell ya though... I have seen this sort of flat-lined hopeless, vitriol troll-inducing sort of circumstance set up several times since 2012, and most of them don't last. I mean logically you can almost assume it can't... because the pattern is really all over the place. Look at the D10 Euro... Obviously that particular time interval is never going to 'be right' on that model or any for that matter. No. But, that ending setup with those huge undulatory wave structures west to east across the whole hemisphere is really an homage to chaos taking over.

First it gets warm then it gets cold BOOM

Just making an observation: This ensuing 'warm up' and its governing patterning, particularly on the heels of a -3 to -5 persistence that spanned a month, are both a nice homage to this Hadley Cell expansion, as well as the notion that when the -EPO faucet shuts off, the rest state is wildly in the other direction. Middle latitudes of our continent can boast some of the most extreme variations over relatively shorter 'intra-seasonal' time-scales than any other regions of the world that are of similar distance from the Equator ( outside of local spatial regions that succumb to unique smaller scale forcing). This was true 1,000,000 years ago ... 100,000 years ago, 10,000 years, 1,000 years... 500 ...250 ...and today. It's always been that way. The reason for that is because of our geological relationship with the atmosphere at very large scales, promotes the southward displacement of cold air masses from higher latitudes. When that occurs, their termination is usually forced deep into old Mexico and even Florida in extreme outbreaks. You won't find that air mass in Hong Kong for a reason, even though they are only ~ 5 deg of latitude different, comparing those two geographic regions. It's because there is large scale topographical interference pattern of the land mass working in 'synergy' with the large scale circulation of the atmosphere over North America. Metaphorically, the continental shape is like a 'funnel' ... some 1/4 or perhaps 1/2 of the seasonal patterning will result NE trade flow out of the Ferrel Cell in eastern Canada, while there is NW conveyor setting up in the NW Territories of Canada, and that air has no where else to go but south like no where else on the planet. In 2019, the extremes are made that much more extreme I have noticed since the year 2000, that when the -EPO turns off... and the Hadley Cell resumes it's polarward anomaly, the turn arounds are rather handsome. This period is nice homage to this ...and is, among so many other more subtle ways, an example of GW playing a roll in actual, empirical climate change. Note, this is not a forecast in any way, shape or form, regarding the warm up its self. This is just an observation of what it looks like, how it has been modeled as of late...and what that interpretation could mean is far as flipping an impressive -4 ( what it takes to maintain that depth in verification, notwithstanding ..) to perhaps a period equal if not more so in the other direction. It seems we are taking the normal tendency for enhanced continental-atmospheric feedback/harmonics, and making that even more extreme, due to the background increased hemispheric gradient of present era Earth. I find it fascinating... if perhaps unnoticed. If I were ask? I'm inclined to suggest a significant cold wave threatens the nation nearing the first week of January... Perhaps starting west as they usually do across the continent, and spreading east, with reinforcing cold loading while that happens. It's very early speculation ... but the GEFs EPO mean is dropping beyond D10 and there is some -40 C 850 mb air being generated by many guidance types over the western Beaufort Sea/over toward N of Russia, and these are initially independent large scale observations, ..where any subsequent tendency to displace that mass would be a rather harsh reminder... So we'll see where all that goes, but just like the large star is dead 10 hours before it's outer limbs registers the shock wave of supernova, a time in which to an outside observer, the star continues to shine totally normal ... the warm up has no idea its already a corpse too.

Ah. Miss read. Heh

I thought I was getting better at doing that come on Jesus I know I toned this way down. I think what it really is is people are just spoiled and Don’t have to think. And I’m not a graphics dispenser.

Anyway I don’t frankly think the euro is right i meant GFS

I almost wonder if it’s cold over in Eurasia during that model time… That happened back I think it was late in the 2006 in the early winter all the cold air dumped over there and we got the sun and obscenely warm January ...then it finally turned in February we got like a late winter

This ultimately makes money by allowing people in and making mouse clicks .. If it’s moderated and deterred that’s a big cut into the profit potential? Don’t know but when this place started swimming in banner ads it got really suspiciously relaxed in the moderatorship and it seems to add up.

good call! Really nailed it ... how did you ever know that would be the result.

Paltry lift through a marginal 850 layer, falling into a surface cold layer. Better UVM it'd be all snow everywhere. But as is, you get shredded rad pedestrian gunk. Next - ....looks like N/NE did okay ?