Typhoon Tip

Yes sir! .... Unfortunately ... I have arguments against the NAM ... no one wants to hear them and it usually just inspires some form of capped rage so I'll just not go into it this time. But, I could see that getting damped out before that model succeeds a coup de etat - leave it at that pending a any other guidance seeing things this way.

I've actually noticed this too, but only in the last five years. I wasn't frankly paying attention to that mid and/or extended range behavior prior to 2009 though. I seemed to recall thinking all models were mutable beyond D4 back in that era but I'll take your word for it. My question is... I wonder if that's endemic to North American mid-latitudes, or if that's a global bias in the model? It does seem to want to curl systems poleward almost as fast as it generates them beyond D4 or 4.5 or so. I recall some systems back in 2010 (I think it was...) that were modeled by the Euro to cut toward Lake Superior really fast, yet we end up with those front wall snow thumps with lows smearing out under blocking the model apparently missed in Ontario ...triple point and so forth.

And you should... SSW != -NAO.... It doesn't even = -AO ... There's a lot of people in the game that write well ( ) ... and have learned a bit about this or that, and how a lot of the indices correlate ...without out really understanding the nature of the correlations. That's the nice way of putting it Charlatanism can be an accident too ... from intelligent, well-intended individuals that may just have gotten ahead of the learning curve before garnering the necessary wisdom to put it in the right perspectives. First of all (not for you per se, but the general reader) ... a primer on the NAO and AO. 1 ... the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) shares domain space with the AO (Arctic Oscillation). That means the AO and NAO can and do part company within their respective EOF ( the mathematical model that determines their phase states...) results. 2 ... Particularly in the case of the NAO... transient mid-latitude phenomenon passing through the domain can modulate that index regardless of any SSW leading/forcing... Such that the NAO's correlation with the SSW is comparatively less than the AO. The AO may be suffering a very positive phase state... while a height ridge rolls through the NAO... and the two will thus have a more weakly negative correlation. And vice versa... Much of the time, because of their shared domain space they will tend to move together... which is why they have a longer term positive correlation coefficient... But not always tsk tsk. You may as well extend this conceptually into the EPO as well, because the same disconnect vs connection is present between the AO and it too. 3 ... The AO's correlation with the SSW is not 1::1 ... Warm events are often observed firing off at altitude high up in the stratosphere .... yet, do not ultimately go on to correlate with any apparent AO response. The critical pattern of behavior, "down-welling" (or moving warm anomaly down in altitude) needs to occur and interact with the tropopausal sigma level ... which, 4 ... That takes times... some 20 days when averaging the apparent propagating SSW (downwellers) against historic AO indexes. This statement was rendered by yours truly and I was annoyed how few really wrapped their minds around it, or even paid attention. When the warm anomaly first surged in last month ... I mean... like 7 or 10 days later and I'm reading about how the models were beginning to detect it's forcing... WRONG. ... Pattern of course failed ... and that led to some discrediting of SSW, falsely, in some, but also just forgetfulness by others. Fact of the matter is, the AO descent we are seeing now is probably if not likely more related to that influence ... But, as all these points in total should imply ... even if the AO does tank for a couple of weeks immediately going forward, that really doesn't mean the NAO has to do anything. The EPO could go negative ... We could observe a block over in no-man's land of N. Eurasia... etc etc.

Forget it, Bro' The local yolks are inconsolable on this day, and cannot be held intellectually or emotionally responsible at this time...

I hope that happens for your impudence -

You know ...that's funny ... right for whatever reason - no one is ever wholly right for the right reason, either. Unless anyone human brain knows all the quanta of momentum of all particles in reality ... there's always an element of chance that either works out for, or against, a veracious effort. But that reality probably doesn't resonate in here I'm guessing -

I think Boston is 1.5" so far ... which is probably miss-leading to civility because I don't believe anyone actually lives on the Tarmac at Logan ... But, I've had 16" on the season here at my pad in Ayer - ... curious what others have had. This is not my least snowy (to date) winter... since living here over the last 9 years. That honor goes to 2011-2012 ... We had 10" from the Halloween grid-debacle bomb ...and it literally did not snow again at this location (imby) until light snow in late February that year. So, as bad as it is and/or has been (...and don't get me wrong, it has not been good for winter enthusiasts... ) I wonder if there is something particular about this year that is making it "seem" worse?

Actually... this run did a pretty drastic mass-field continuity change in the nearer term, too - Notice the deep core cold in that plume at 850... it doesn't really come south anymore ... or if it does, it is comparatively very brief over prior runs. It almost looks like it shunts straight east through Ontario on this run between 48 and 72 hours... sparing much incursion at all south of the border. That's gonna be funny for Chicagoans who've been warned to prepare for cryo-doom if that's real [Edit...oh never mind.. .haha, I got my days mixed up for this post - duh]

I suggest if the Euro's right with that complete Rosby reversal, that early in the year ... we may want to watch the NAO domain in the prognostics deeper in February ... Frankly though, I suspect the Euro is overdone - how vastly so remains to be seen...But I could see that just being reduced to a transient warm sector that ...maybe has an extra day (okay) and a Lakes cutter. I realize there are those that live and die by the EPS and so forth but still... as someone that has a lot of experience using the GEFs teleconnectors, I do not believe they will be as far off as would be necessary for May 10th to occur on Ground Hog Day

Don't read in too deep ... I'm making light of a shit winter (to date ) with commiserating dark humor... . If we got to March 8 and it's been the same the whole way, I'll post about the storm because it is interesting meteorologically... I would covet not wanting it tho. But ... wanting vs being in reality ...it's an interesting dilemma for many users in here - haha

So, that's been growing as a signal for three days now? Yup... This is the most alarming ...well, soothing, depending upon one's preference, since the signal was more in a zygote form back whence. By the way, this is a dead match ...albeit clown range (that's certainly true and not diminished) for a Phase 5-6 MJO. ... This may just be one of those MJO's where the general circulation theme from the marine sub-continent all the way around .. is in an agreeable wave space and so it is positive interference (constructive) on the pattern roll out of the cold wave. Last year we suffered ...well, enjoyed .... depending upon one's preference, an extraordinary week of warm weather in February. That warm mass helped ignite a late season NAO. I watched as that pattern collapsed ... It seems to displace/terminate into higher latitudes over NE Atlantic and a big height node response erupted, and retrograded across the N. Atlantic the following week. That ruined spring ... making much of March cold and dreary... Not sure, what happened last April? probably more poop - that month is a piece of shit at least excuse for stench most years but anyway... Hell, why not... let's have a Rosby roll-out and a big slosh warm up before a deeper February crash happens...

Ha, nice try ... .. there is no chance your sermon about 'off to the races' late had any intent whatsoever to rescue you're own torment. oooh k I'm just yankin' chains...

Is this your best a-game "cheer up folks there's still time" pep rally ? perhaps... Not that anyone asked for me opinion but who the hell cares if it snows in March. It's like a 90 year old with Alzheimer's winning the lottery. Buuut, I've come to realize that for the members that regular here ... if it snowed in July it would take this particular crew about 10 minutes to gin up a 50 page thread ...the content in which reads as though there is no other reality outside the width of the PC or iPhone delivery system. Jesus... 14 days... 14 days and the perennial solar nadir is over. If we make it that far and the dearth is unrelenting, my personal druthers flip really quick. Not sayin' it now, but should we arrive upon Feb 10 in the same plight ... I'll be musing to self how 'this f'n winter can't get over fast enough' - the count down to that internal monologue is on... Of course, we're doomed just for saying that - understood...

what were you investing hope for ?

Some snow in the Boston metro area - I'm assuming 'metro' is what you're after? Once past January we get into the seasonal SST nadir in the Harbor and GOM regions... and with CAD (cold air damming) nosing down, ... warm contamination from the nearby ocean becomes less factored. That's A B... the standard metric, the 850 mb isotherm, is agreed upon by the more dependable guidance types (and the associated synoptic reasoning) to align somewhere S of the city... while the best forcing for QPF is passing through. There is some wiggle room with these considerations ... barely. But, that's the way it looks to me now, and I'd think a burst of light to moderate snow by < 4" is the more plausible result, barring any such wiggle. Keeping in mind, we have 4 solid days from 00z guidance last night ...so this isn't the Dead Sea scrolls.

So I regarding mid week ... I didn't like the 00z complexion from the guidance. The 18z EPS mean (yesterday) may have been the max. The 00z and 06Z marked the end of the secondary identity "improvement" trend, and the fact that we are now < 5 days being asked of the Euro cluster ...that's not a very good sign. We quickly hockey stick (favorably) that particular cluster's performance curve - code for wrong direction for storm enthusiasts. I'm willing to concede to a seasonal trend for disappointment here. I try to maintain an objective vigil, and believe so that I still am by nodding to the fact that the least plausible outcome has succeeded, relative to all intents and indicators ... pretty much the entire way this season, and that there is a certain wisdom in being aware of that. This winter has simply been vastly more proficient at pointing out the virtuosity of keeping one's expectations stabled. And for that 'panache' ... my own horses are not leaving the barn on this one. I was willing to air optimism through that 18z run but ... actually, 'tell ya the truth I saw the 108 hour operational GFS last night, and it was that that ironically turned me off.. And so I did, all access points to any Meteorological data, and choose to instead zombie out in front of the tube. It occurred to me just what the EPS (and some trends in the operational version, too) were attempting to do up through and including 18z... The flow is just too compressed and they were physically clawing to overcome that - metaphorically speaking. one, the trough/closed arctic SPV is carving south a bit too far west of climatology. That can be overcome ... (one of the reasons I was entertaining the notion). Systems sometimes do end up more tilted in the vertical. That happens when there is a 'hydrostatic disruption to the normal cyclone model' between mechanical forcing position(s) in space and time over top lower level resistance. Some variant of this latter is what you were hoping for, and those prior Euro runs may have (faux) offered hope. two, prior to any of that ... the mid level wind velocities in the ambient hemisphere are negating individual S/Ws. Their mechanical forcing get reduced, and this plight includes the wind maxes associated with the SPV itself. This is not an absolute limitation.. it's more like a toll on cyclogenesis. Storms form in that sort of mealstrom but...they tend to be weaker and/or very fast moving. Really.... you want these undulating flow constructs, but with less isohypsotic gradient while still having cold thickness availability. S/W comes along with a 100 kt max, and more of that wind is thus mechanically forcing... When the wind is already 50 or 70 knots or more... the 100 kt S/W has an effective d(v) of only 50 ... So, 50. 100. Which one has the bigger storm? Anyway, it's not a huge loss ... this really is pretty explainable ...well enough in advance, why this is probablistically slated to be less meaningful. This is a good situation to assume less and be pleasantly surprised. Having said all that... I agree with the not in time idea ... and that some kind of wintry QPF is still warranted. There ... now that I've dared align expectations toward low end impact... the entire SPV is going to move bodily under LI and wipe SNE off the map

The annihilation of the GFS is not justified leave it at that. But when you said 55 originally I thought you were talking like three or four days ahead I was splitting the difference from the early middle range

What are you focusing on?

Yeah you read my mind… That's what I was really after is wondering how the trend was going.

For how little it's worth the Nam looks very aggressive with the N/stream depth on this run I mean it really looks like it wants to bring that over Chicago which should be farther south if that were the case

I don't think the system emerging off the southeast coast should really be the focus… Although wonders never cease it's really about the secondary/Miller "beer" proposal by the EPS and op euro

Is that a tick east or just more intense ... not that it matters

"Close range"? 5 days chief. Somebody's expectations are a little bit high

Im not sure I agree with your reputation of the GFS. When it was forecasting that 55 rain the euro was forecasting 20 inches of snow… What happens? Something in between. Grantedthe GFS is not as good as the euro model but it's not as bad as you guys are making it out to be. Sounds like people so desperate for the emotional high of a snowstorm in the models and not seeing one that they're just scapegoating.

I wasn't even considering that first low egress SE as part of that thing anyway - but who knows... time to morph this thing -