Typhoon Tip

is anyone verifying high wind warnings ? oh I see overnight

um yeah ? ...

Hello Kevin, Unfortunately, the more formulative explanation requires one has had comprehensive and most importantly, learned exposure to a rather vast array of geophysical backgrounds - from academia to the frontiers of environmental observation and research. Firstly, this is not simply a matter of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The NAO can ephemerally increase the overall mid tropospheric wind velocities ( usually more over regions of the continent east of your longitude..). However, those periods tend not to last more than 7 to 10 days in most extreme cases. It may also recur after a relaxed intersession, when less height compression mid level winds are observed, and then as the index renews its descent, flow speeds again ... etc. That whole phenomenon is different than what is happening globally at mid latitude. First, one needs to understand why the flow can be fast or slow. When you see a shorter distance between the geopotential lines on a standard 500 mb level chart, that means there are faster wind speeds taking place. When the gaps widen...the opposite is true. In the case of the NAO above, heights usually lower over eastern Ontario, as they do, this introduces more lines ( which is a reflection of increasing gradient ) to the chart between that region and the mid Atlantic latitudes. Increasing the lines/gradient --> increasing the wind flow. When height rise over eastern Ontario, naturally the opposite occurs. What you are asking has an answer that not found in that paragraph. It's a global distinction having to do with warming the tropical band that encircles the global, and then having it begin to expand width. As it does, heigths at mid latitudes either have to rise with it, or, increase in gradient. In the N.H. Summer ( same in theirs..) this is not as noticeable. In fact, at times this tropical/sub-tropical band ( known as the 'Hadley Cell') will even blend with the gener R-wave layout and it's amorphous - you might think of summer as having lighter winds. Then, the ensuing autumn begins to see the heights lower up N first of course, and as that expands south this 'ballooned' HC is not reducing as it used to, decades ago, because of the resident nature of the whole warming atmosphere. That is creating the onset of the surplus gradient at mid latitudes. Hopefully from this you can get some idea why this is happening - difference with the NAO. "What we need to see take place" is cool the whole HC -

Amazing what it takes now to get normal cold-seasonal related events to happen, and happen when they are supposed to. I submit we may achieve that this year, with a -2 SD pattern. I have a rude awakening message for folks... if it were not for these EPO explosions we've been dappling along the time lines of recent decades, winters would already be hugely stressed. But they are offsetting in a peculiar way. It's either +10 at all times, or -20 ... but fewer COL times that happen to situated normalcy. ..not exactly ..just making the point...

mm... beware 2015 tho -

Ok, let me ask you something ... what happens if we apply a subtle correction to atone for the Euro bias? Thing is, it would not take much to get the flow down stream N of the Lakes into a confluence with that arm of polar high extending east of the initial -EPO load. Beyond D6 .. I dunno man that's dangerous look for the whole U..S actually. Lots of possibilities there.. I mean I get it it's hard maybe to see outside that box but the model was too far west with this pattern change; how could we forget. We said the Euro could be too deep in the SW several times. Well.. One thing I will note..the flow is fast - let's not forget that. Embedded impulse works ( not that anyone said otherwise ) are liable to be an open wave bottle rocket variety.

I wish we lived in a universe that was really like that... everything in reality had parts well formed and other parts were weird. Course, that would be completely normal -

Yup, solid points The otherwise knee jerk defensive shtick gets a bit tedious -

that's because those right side lines go off the top edge ... i.e., but clearly you studied it for awhile to tried and use your mind, so I say we are making progress.

At least through the first 10 days ... I'm not seeing a huge difference there actually - timing perhaps. But the 850 thermal/ll PP/mid levels appear within acceptable differences.

yeah unfortunately, that look D8-10 can't do much. It's paralyzingly too compressed

I dropped this hypothesis over the summer ... With the HC expansion stuff, early cold snaps can be intuitively fitting ... because that would tend parlay into NE Pac index responses. Heights in that region, however subtle, average higher, lends to this... Question is, does it last. The base pattern for winter may not even yet occurred - though I suspect it does in this case for other topic... This conceptually might begin to atone for the abhorrent increase in snow occurrence in October since 2000 in general. Interesting.

um .. yeah? that was both long predicated and has been in the report attributes

why... they said the climate science is settled... what do you think that means Look your a either a troll, simply put ( and not even a rankably clever one) or are just not even mentally capable of this discussion so best of luck

Well... that's all I need to hear

An important logical flaw in "the climate doesn't cause " arguments is that it seems the denier is too myopic and linear-dimensional in their cause-and-effect grasping. Perhaps it's a mental capacity ... Or a moral one. "Climate" does not maintain an operational presence in the daily dynamical interactivity that takes place in the environment. There is a population ballast that cannot seem to make the next leap of reasoning. Climate used to simply be 100 day, 100 temps, sum(t)/n-terms = the temperature climate across that hundred days. But here's the rub ... that number doesn't tell you anything about the 'character' of your data, whether those temperatures are trending up, or down .. the nature of the extremes ( anomalies) etc. What climate is now, is a description of those tendencies - and it is patently clear this latter aspect is untenable either by personal choice, or personal limitation is said ballast. Because not only is it rising, that rise is no longer linear.. It's curved upward. IF the frequency of big anomalies in a system is also increasing, and, that increase naturally connotes thus the probability of those events are also, and MATCHES what is presently happening ( yet exceeds) it must therefore be statistical significant. By and large - and this can be at times the writing of the scientist, sure - when one mentions the term climate in deference to wild fires, flood food or famine ...tornadoes, hurricanes, blizzards and so forth... they are not saying the climate "caused" the event, they are saying: You are in a climate that favors these things happening - more over ... a NEW one ( ding ding: what do we call that, class!?)

Let me ask you something, when a given set of statistic that looks sorta like this ... what do you see?

Speculatively ? Yes. Certitude mm ...certainty is a difficult word for scientists. I think last year had some legit bad luck - if you will. We can get a lot of nickle and dime events out of fast flows in an overall speed rich environment, but the storm track last year averaged ever so slightly too far NW - which unfortunately is prescribed in the EXC model.. But, it can slip back SE all of 200 miles and still satisfy both worlds.

ah yup.. This is particularly true in autumns and springs at that location. Keep in mind ... Denver is referred to as the "mile high city" .. by and large having elevations ranging between 5,100 and 5,700 feet.. That's like most of the way up Mt Washington if it helps put it in perspective. Warmth at that elevation(s) is gossamer particularly in autumn and spring. It can be wiped out immediately.. Just over that elevation ...say 7,500 feet it's cold regardless, in July. So, any kind of turbulent mixing that moves into that region is going to crumble the air closer to the free air lapse right at height

That D7 Euro reminds me of a slightly scaled up version ( size ) of the Dec 2005 event, only over the Lakes. That's gotta have stinger for ORD!

Lol ... it's like, "who's with me!" yeah...as I seemed to have started this sub-stream, I just wanna clarify ... the word "tendency" was used liberally for a reason in that. In 1989, we had a cryo-November and then putrid Jan and Feb ... I just see it over the long haul, there are more examples where success/failure tendencies during spring(autumn) will parlay into the ensuing summer(winter). Seems is bit different than reality at times tho - it may be that the mind just recalls... I dunno

We do once in while... granted, it's been awhile, but 1989 we had the sea level variation on that. I remember full sun, 11 F with trees bending in the wind in November that year.

I'm not sure where you're going with the angular momentum stuff but I tend to agree regarding the ENSO A weak forcing potential by a weak warm(cool) ENSO gets lost inside an HC that is enormous. That blocks the former's ability to modulate.