Typhoon Tip

This mid and extended range doesn't scream historic warmth to me for anyone living N of roughly the Del Marva latitudes... not that anyone asked - There's too much confluence modeled to swing through southern Canada and the correction vector should be toward increasing sfc PP along the 50th parallel up there underneath...which means the obvious down to 40 N. If for some reason we can tip toe through the next 4 to 10 days without getting a +PP in southern Ontario... we'd still need a well-mixed dry adiabatic atmosphere on long fetched continental flow, and so far, the warm sectors that - I feel - are over done because of the first point, are dirty anyway.

Again, ... you guys, we were talking about the speeding up of the flow stuff. You guys are exposing your fears and insecurities deviating that into snow so far..just a little here. ha. I couldn't give a shit less about snow. I'm worried about the evidences of CC in HC expansion and objectively attempting to speculate what it means for the future. Like I said, increasing heat increased PWAT in Earth's geo-physical interplay, so provided there is sufficient cold, ... duh -

anyway ... at some point the the increased PWAT probably would mean more rain vs snow, here... but that's who knows how long off. The conversation I was having with Dryslot wasn't snow specific - we were talking around the fast flow stuff. The stuff about snow is recent and another aspect. Theoretically ...expanding the HC into winter months should speed up the flow and it's being noted... That's an open shut case. And, is a climate change implication that Steve hates ... wah wah waah

I never said you were - I said Steve parenthetically

I think it has ...it's helping to snow more hahaha... Probably talking past one another. I just got back trying to catch up -

The wave length are unusually long - that is because of the fast flow... I don't have personal wants where this things take place... but the 960 low, typically is farther west in a "normal " r-wave distribution. I'm not going to argue what is correct. You guys just don't like the climate implication - that is what is not liked here

SNE doesn't mean shit.... You have to take hemisphere's apart in quadrature. Firstly.. come on Secondly, the climate models and theoretical physics state we increase PWAT potential in a warming atmosphere such that when sufficiently cold enough, more snow "in the last 15 years" absolutely fits that both science and the narrative ( Steve ) ...

I honestly have my doubts... I think we're in sort of uncharted CC waters here... The CC stuff and the expanded Hadley Cell is a pan-systemic, Earth-based problem... it's not a matter of reshuffling the rosby numbers and orienations and so forth. Even if the latter rouletts its way into a better configuration, does it merely situated over the top of and compress the heights? It's not like 1990 anymore. We have to contend with ... This is quick/snap search on the web to serve as primer, but there is a Climate report that links to hundreds of scientifically vetted/apprv paper material that goes into it deeper. but, https://www.climatesignals.org/climate-signals/hadley-cell-expansion means winter be f'ed if one than integrates conceptually into actual Meteorological consequences. This expansion didn't start this year...it's been growing in coherency ...particularly since the mega NINO of the late 1990s...It's almost like that even was a Terran-wide climate threshold point and by subtle geometries, we never really ever settled back/recovered to the previous dynamics. We are in fact, going up still ever since, and this year ? This is the worse I have consequentially observed the speeding up aspect, yet. Why would anyone wonder why the big Nino from 3-5 years ago didn't register as obviously in the global circuitry - it's because it's getting f'n burried in already an atmospheric surplus of latent heat in the tropics, so it's not triggering an atmospheric response. yet, those folks out there keep planning on winters doing a-b-c, because of x-y-z ENSO. ...it's interestingly debatable... There are no absolutes - some bigger by proportion anomaly can off-set. But, that by definition is rarefied so - Anyway, suppositional, but if we deal with this shit the rest of the way, I wouldn't be surprised. even if we get lucky ( anyway ) and get clocked once or twice and smugly use that to rationalize things as still being fine ... still doesn't change the reality of what's happening.

yeah .. right .. agreed. No matter how we dress it up and uber hyper drill into the texture of the thing... like I snarked to Brian an hour ago, the flow is simply too fast for phasing. I mean what you describe is really alleviated if the ridge in the west pops higher in latitude... But it can't, because the whole fuggin' hemisphere is moving a ludicrous speeds in the first place - one thing limits the next thing --> ultimately limits that

It happens with striking correlation coefficients - ... the first post is almost 1::1 guaranteed to be, 'x model looks better on this run' amazing...

mm, I feel pretty good about doing that now. Although the Euro took a bit of a hit on that last event it trying to drill 6-10" across SNE last week, that sort of error at < D5 is rarer for that model. I'm willing to cut it a break one or two bad calls along the way, when in general it's longer termed performance seldom displays that sort of wrongness. That, and, the S/W mechanics are relaying over land into the denser physically realized sounding domain so that should supply some additional credence - thought admittedly...it would have to be admitting to no drugs ..haha. kidding

This is kind of like 'threading the needle,' if perhaps in more of a holistic way. We're used to that metaphor where needles are thin, so...the margin of error is spread over a smaller latitude. From 84 or so + hours out we are hoping the dart targets us ( or not depending on what one wants) Even tho Wednesday's deal may end up a bigger spatial event by dimensions and so forth, we are still in effect .... narrowing probability for actually getting this to happen in time. So, in this case ...that's our needle.

Too detailed a perspective - though probably correct nonetheless. Just say the flow is too fast and the waves can't phase. That should 'bout do it -

That, right there ...is the tedious egregious nature of this engagement lol. Watching the formulation of rationalization ( denial of truth ) by spinning things up down, left right ..whatever, that is the delusional process unfolding. That's what drive me to distraction... It's like 20" of snow is about to strike the megalopolis from DC to Maine, and someone says, "So, we get through a few inches of snow, and then it's spring - I can deal with that. It's not so bad" or whatever they need to polish them minds from having to accept - Shut it! stop -

The fast flows go both ways as far as limitations and corrections, though. Just because there is a warm, underpinning height anomaly stretching from Hawaii to Spain ...eh hm, doesn't mean there has to be warm air at mid latitudes, particularly when the velocities everywhere are such that commercial airlines are handed out record breaking West to East land-air-speed records like Pez candies. What was the recent one 801 mph. Jesus... one could take off JFK at 5:30 am and make the 8:50 meeting in London Ridges don't tend to be very amplified in the spatial orientation in rasp atmospheres, either. Troughs are forced to shallow out because the fast flow absorbs mechanical power and saps the wave strength. Ridges can't balloon in latitude as prodigiously, either, because the x-y coordinate wind stream mitigates storm --> latent heat release reduces, and the ridges stay flat. I mean that's the ultra watered down description. The models seem to have to keep correcting for either of these scenarios pretty routinely ... That's why we've seen what... four different times when the models were attempting these pig warm bubbles over eastern N/A since mid Novie, yet we've verified all of them as 55 F mist. It sucks...and a kick in the winter-nuts for snow enthusiasts, true...but I don't care about that. I'm talking about the behavior of modeling versus verfication. They've tended to be not more than, or last longer than 24 hours. Maybe this time will be different - mm I doubt it ( which means it will and the first 83 F day in Logan ever in January is about to take place..). Anywho... I think much in the same way the troughs are minoring out and their storms ... weakening and trending east relative to mid range modeling tempos, as mid ranges near ridges will tend to pancake and we'll end up with briefer warm intrusions.

Hypocrisy run amok ... NAM anything for "synoptic corrections" - hopefully, that's not what's really happening. Now...undoubtedly, here comes the disingenuous torrent about how it's really about " no we're just doing x-y-z" nice. But what drives that willingness to compromise one's standards ( if not common sense and reason ) to such a scale and degree of inadvisability? Even if there some truth of the tongue-'n'-cheek claim for why the NAM posts, it's like comedy - there's always a percentile of truth in there. Scott said, " I hope it comes back west and rains..." Out of some form of Schadenfreude meets with vindication on some level or another? I can relate. Sometimes my own hypocrisy has to save me. Because in moments of that resent, I find myself hoping the technology infrastructure fails altogether. That way those seeking the joy/void filling thing by way of this "accident of technology, glue-sniffing modeled high" ( which was never the intent of this technology ... ) are forced into rehab ... That would be entertaining! Just knowing they wonder dazed through life trying to figure out how to reintegrate a reality that is more profound than the ephemeral fleeting of psychotropic thumb flips on a portable phone screen. Ha ha ha-ha ha. Ah well...be that as must. Then I realize, wait a minute - then I can't look at that weather charts either in such an advent of technology loss. Moreover, impugn society on social-media. I'm always amused when reading "blogs" anyway that chastise modernism - people taking shits and complaining about other people's stink. Hypocrisy has served to lubricate society ever since the industrial revolution has put Humanity in a situation where they have to surmise morality on a dime and make quick decisions. Usually, their conflicted interests.. Hell, I guess we all use this shit for different reasons. And this is a hell - it's beautifully dark, and alluring, like the temptations therein. You start out, some hapless soul. You're deprived on some level. So, you find a drug that eases the anxiety of your life - but like drugs, it's false. It's escape. It's not the real pathway to salvation. Oh geez! That sounds like the intro to a marketing wrap, a manipulation by religious sermonizing to show one the way ...No! I find any organized religion or doctrine that imposes some systemic belief system on one's spirit as one of these most putrid achievements of mankind outside the execution of the a-bomb. But, though I am subjectively comparing ... it does seem there is something of a bit of value to the hell comparison... Hell is at the end of a road paved faux intentions. And drug escape, whether charts or heroine, it's all the same. And, Satan exacts his interest on that spiritual loan, when the stimulation is taken away, and the withdraw challenges the very endurance of man. Yup...I'm having girl troubles again A lot of posts over the last five pages that I've wasted another 20 minutes of my life scanning ... describing this tendency for the mid week thing to miss east, in turns of phrase and cadence that - I'm sorry - exposes your frustration. It doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to read into that... But, Will and I warned everyone four days ago, that the system mid week was either going to, or was very likely to, suffer the same physical stressing and minoring out as the previous. The underlying scaffold of the flow's construct, nothing's changed. You've just wasted too many of your woken hours spanning the last four days...trying to fight planetary physical prominence with your will - how's that workin' for you? Lol.

Weird ...you'd think a warm winter with no snow would be more your speed - ... mercurial I guess

I've mentioned this recently too but I've also noticed ...this doesn't seem to be a factor as much as it used to in the past. Hard to say why, though sophisticating in assimilation techniques is ( duh ) most likely available. But also, I've noticed a very subtle tendency to over assimilate S/W's if anything in recent several seasons. It's almost like biasing decimals on the stronger side as a normalization/standard-deviation correction factor - no one's going to notice a over-cast' storm quite as much as the unders

Oh, right ..heh, I didn't honestly look at the previous chart... I just arrogantly dismissed it as a piece of shit at 991 in a punch bowl. But in fairness, you shed 19 mb in 12 that's technically a bombogenesis

GGEM's 991 mb ENE of Boston Light ... tough characterizing that as a nuke to me but to each his own - I guess in a dearth of activity, we start desensitizing and lesser gems start to dazzle

It's actually a lot better here in the interior at 34 F and not even cat paws...

That's the wave space bottle-rocketing through the N-Pac that's contributory mid week... I mean just looking at that and how it fits into that surrounding tapestry, determinism is a daunting dream - good luck.

Heh... "still time for this to go to shit" reminds me of that joke ... Some dude dies and goes to hell. He gets confronted by Satan who says, "We're not infinitely uncivilized in our ruination as recompense for deeds of soiled souls .. we at least give you the choice of what where and how you'll spend eternity .. Shall we begin the selection tour?" The dude sees all these people standing around naked .. feet submerged in the shit of their smuggest enemies, to a depth somewhere between knee and ankle high. Huh? What's more, they are all holding saucers with donuts and coffee? Wtf. Mind you, he'd just seen hundred of parallel dimensions and universes, where the reality is unspeakably transcending any putrescence known ... So, although bad, the ignominy of enemy's shit at least gets donuts and coffee - fuggit. Next thing he knows, he too is naked standing in the shit of his smuggest enemies. A saucer with a cup of coffee and donut in hand, a voice booms through the ether ... and it says, "Okay everyone - breaks over. Back to the push-ups!"

It probably comes south and attenuates as it does... 4-6" where this one fails, that succeeds or something. I just have a tough time believing bombogen feed-backs but again, like I and apparently Will have been cautioning, ...these short-comings can be overcome, it's just a matter of whether the rarefied anomaly gets injected into the flow that is capable of doing it...

OKay...have seen it. Yeah, I'm not too put off by that solution actually. It appears to be a compromised result of the fast flow and conservation of mechanics just at a paint-brushed perspective. Note, the mechanics are situated on this run's initializaiton over the region between Alaska and Hawaii, during an era with a falling PNA... This latter large scale circulation character change makes it complex at best how/what is being handled in that vicinity ...which obviously will bear upon what gets ejected screaming with beady eyed rage through the west ... jesus