Typhoon Tip

...pretty soon, NHC will get this recommendation and then finally the rest of the world will know -

Here we are all the way out at D15 in the GFS and finally ... clear indications of seasonal change in the model

Interesting... seems via the tenor in here - we've gone from speculation of a week or two earlier nadir to a late one?

Warm hemisphere on our side ... with an idiosyncratic cold node over us - enabling as usual... It's not autumn in my mind until that shit stops and one of these GFS la-la range patterns actually succeeds for the better... SO just imho - I'm sure other's basking in 37 F radiational "luck" are just fine believing the seasons have changed profoundly and incontrovertibly and that is fine too - Agreed on the freeze necessity, though. I'm good with the gardeners having to pack it in this late. We've been in gravy mode for a couple of weeks as it is, with straggler tomatoes or whatever bonus.. Was ambling down the aisles of my in-laws big garden in 75 F Pandora utopia weather the other day, and rows of tomatoes albeit midriff blighted, the crowns were still yellow flowers amid some late ripeners... and I have to admit, seems tomatoes turning red in mid September are sweeter than those that do so in mid July. They've been jarring and had a good year. Peppers did extremely well, too. Plus some more exotics. Good year all around and no losses in moving on... I'm not a epidemiologist by any stretch, but it seems to me ... kill the mosquitoes, kill the spread of this EEE. It's a nasty one, with 1/3 mortality rate and even higher rates of permanent neurological damage. If you get that, it's dicey whether you end up a tongue-biter or not. And as far as I've read/heard/seen it's entirely spread intravenously ...by mosquito syringe. As a digression into 'holism' ... I have a Gaia hypothesis that mosquitoes were invented by evolution as a population control mechanism. It seems to fit all dimensions of biota-management ( if you will..). Think about it. Humans over populate by profligate means of environmental exploitation --> warm sultry world that is conducive to ( mosquitoes + migratory pathogenic invasion)/2 = a shit storm of die off potential. Or, even in well-behaved static population numbers ... just the baser Malaria and EEE, and who knows what else ... keep numbers down. Problem with humidity is that ... ha! Humidity - how's that for a Freudian slip... problem with Humanity is that we've out-foxed these natural "checks-and-balances" and are no longer proxy-over by forces of ecology and other limiting factors. But our ingenuity comes with a price, as there is no way in the Universe to give to one system, without taking from another. And well... here we are facing declines in more ways, both directly and indirectly, from the others, those in which we are still inextricably reliant upon - catch-22 in a way. Synergistic breakdowns are looming, too. Anyway... slow morning here at the office. Sorry for the soap- box but ...whats new from me

I bet if the wind were to be offshore, given that thermal plumb? it would expose that 'autumnal vibe' as bootlegged. it's mild at 900 mb 13C? mm, this is just an idiosyncrasy of this oddball fold-over look at H500 we've had pretty much all year, and it's favoring high pressures from the N to slope the lower sounding intervals unuually far left/upright. I mean I'd like to see an actual +PNAP pan American look before crediting autumn arrival - I'm almost wondering if the AMO is partly to blame for why troughs won't exit in a timely fashion. Look at the Euro at 24 hours... trough in the Maritimes, but 48 hours the axis of that trough has progressed half way to England yet the heights won't rise over NE ... The following annotations are a gross repro for that, which has also been a repeating pattern of behavior for months frankly.. ( blue line is a "virtual" trajectory/emergent property of anticyclonic rotation of major features ) This recurring theme over several months morphs/slopes the trough backward W, while higher heights end up lobing NW, so we get this undercut look - like there is some sort of emergent property for anti-cyclonic curl going on at very large scales. This behavior has been happening and verifying all summer. It's kepts our above normals out of head-lines - which ...admittedly, no one would complain ha. Buut, just the same, it's hiding the NE U.S. and Maritimes from being "as warm" as they could.

Not sure how to parse out sarcasm from sincerity over the past bit of posting so no offense intended, but holy shit was that a warm Euro run.

No wonder Trump rose to power - holy f

This is one of those years where the CV season goose poops 10 pellets down stream at the Americas and none do shit on the EC... Yet, we'll get a hurricane at all next year, and it'll go from Cape Hatteras to ACK and we'll get PRE'ed, and weather the wind of all these assholier-than-thou posters telling us that isn't a bad average so we're the jerks for want -

Perhaps ... but "futility" has a curve too - It's not like it's impossible...just a matter of when said possibility begins to improve enough to stick one's toes in the chance - heh...I've seen enough fun Novembers to know that Hallow's Eve needs to get behind to be ankle deep in the curve depth... Waste deep is December 1, but if you're not holding your breath submerged in chances by early February - meh F grade. No winter then 1888 redux, F+!D Not sure how GW mutilates all that tongue-in-cheek... It's existentially anecdotal, which took place and was formulated before the recent hockey-stick years kicked in.

Sure ... here - geez

I love it boring right now... And, I also disagree with 80s in September. In fact, I want 80s through Halloween night, and then ... -10 C at 850 the morning of November 1, followed by the high likeliness of ever seeing 8+" of snow every three days until mid February. The reason for that tOtally realistic desire is because of the pure insanity in real futility of wanting snow before November 1. Firstly, it won't stick around ...out side of some 1/10,000 year return rate season, which probably requires some sorta Krakaleftnut volcano or something... Otherwise, secondly ... for some reason, when it snows in October ...that hasn't parlayed well into ensuing seasons for me. It may psychobablogical in the sense that 2" on October 10 makes an average snow winter unacceptably mundane - yes...I'm willing to admit to conditioning. Here comes all the statistical proof that it doesn't mean blah blah blah if snows in October... f you. I'm talking anecdotal existentialism here. So, may as well get long bike rides and outdoor fun/late golf and outdoor hoops and women clad in me-too, until there's a chance at better staying power.

For all my protestations and hand-waving, I love my winter weather phenomenon types. I can tell you, no one else who shares in that perspective did very well during those years Will mentioned..

Yeah. All that, so long as it's a front loaded winter. In fact, and I realize I only win the hearts of detractors by saying the following, I hope it's 80 to 100 F from February 10th onward through next summer, but, only after having suffered a winter so extreme and severe between Halloween and that date, that even Kevin folds it in and has to abandon the social-media engagement of the weather forumverse for shear sanity. 'Course, that would require a sense of 'lost sanity' in that particular individual to begin with, which as an apparent lost cause .. that's another story. OH we have our dreams...

Sounds like "entitlement" ... or a form of it. When/if x-y-z happens once or twice, folks marvel. If it happens all the time, they become accustomed and part of that customization is of course the "expectation" - and hell halth no fury like ones expectations unfulfilled. It kind of reminds me of that Larson that depicts the two tattered ragged distressed wonderers that happen upon a single palm tree hangin' over a brackish oasis while the blazin' sun's beaming mercilessly overhead ... obvious a buck-ten degrees, and the one turns head toward the other and says, " What ... no cups?" haha. People are like that. Whether it's about the neurotic abstraction of this attraction/dopamine for experiencing whatever weather, to economics, regardless of subject/aspect at hand, when folks get accustomed, it's a built in demand. It's a digression but I suspect it's an actual evolutionary advantage. I mean if we think about it, when a community gets used to certain inputs into the system, and thus have adapted, that familiarization lessens uncertainty at a survival level; and since self-preservation is a baser instinct that all possess, I bet that self-righteous sort of 'annoyance' is really kind of rooted in that phenomenon. No one is going to stop and ask what is and is not unfair about getting glut all the time and having to suffer watching someone get a slice of pie once in a while. Haha. it's actually kind of humorous, that someone could be like pissed off that they don't get to lord it over others when they can't -

No argument ... Firstly, as a primer, the arctic is very sensitive when nearing melt states; input therms mean much more to threshold periods than they do during deeply descended seasonality. This year the arctic domain space has been near, or at that threshold ( as has that also been a predicament becoming more common over the last decade, plausibly longer), where in lock step the Arctic Oscillation teleconnector become a reasonably well correlated/indicator for melt rates. -AO is a warm signal above the 60th parallel; where the N. Hemisphere has yet to begin its seasonal cascade, that becomes problematic ( newly so..) at onset of this new/re-asserting -AO mode.

No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like? ...It looks like this: I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that - Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation... I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop

Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

I am .. this blows! It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha J/k... Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor. Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ? ... ancillary hobbies folks.

I would suggest that it is actually the evidences that are the real trigger-points for that modality - not the science alone. I realize you never said or insinuated otherwise in your statement - I'm strictly speaking to the "straw-man" in the room, and my concern that people do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through the corporeal senses... Being told this or that, via science, is not enough. It's mere to them ...They need to be burned, and seeing whales wash-up on beaches with barbie doll components blocking their digestive tracks, fair-weather high tides swallowing island nations, and suffering heat waves a degree she of biblical apocalypses, are just ( unfortunately .. .) what are necessary to get this message successfully into minds. And those evidences ..an entire raft of which are not mentioned here, but are televised, pale in severity the future holds at current profligate pace of Humanity. Life as we know it is going to change ... or has to. Certain convenience delivery has one of two options: change; unable to change. Change may come via technologies... biodegradable plastics... sustainable green energy sources... etc..etc... and these technologies have been around for decades, unexplored or shelved, btw. But it's a race... enters the unable to change and ...well, that ends any discussion of any kind, everywhere - time will tell.

This air mass arrival has morphed into one helluva backdoor front for VA and the Carolinas....

There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region. Nothing... We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario. Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though. In fact, the opposite. In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...) JB? ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ...

This Euro run is great .... wow. above normal warmth and completely devoid of any drama for the next 10 billion years - It's just perfect for these dystopian-dopamine junkies, huh

Looks like we've entered the phase of development where the zygote TC spits out meso-vortices... Meanwhile, hi res vis imagery looks animate what appears to be a mid-level curl beginning to more observerably fold cyclonically inward about 60 or so naut miles ENE of the midriff Bahama archipelago - The models will likely play the blind initialization game in the initializations; until they're nailing down something more of an entity in that matrix ...any and all behavior obviously comes along with a caveat emptor. IT does bring up an interesting question for these early stages of development with these things... The tropical physical model of TC's is one heavily coupled to the sea/llvs ... but, it does some times seem as though the mid levels have a role in where the low lvl centers get "picked" hm

There was no "party" to begin with. I remember when I was 14 years old... the weather forecaster would mention a snow storm or tornado along the way of their broadcast, through a din of qualifiers signifying remoteness ... But I didn't often hear much less register those qualifiers in my auditory sensory processors in my shimmering sophistication as an observer back then... The next days always dawned jilted - Going forward... a would-be Humberto (?) is a good candidate for a looper. I realize no model is really doing that, but, I could see this thing being reasonably well-handled over these next three days ...then it starts moving ENE away...only to get abandoned by the trough as it flattens over the top of the west-Atl Basin STR. It then moves ESE then S ... talking some 8 days out... the models having shown poor ability to adjust/correct toward such a behavior for the obvious reasons. Speculation...