Typhoon Tip

This is ...uh, heh, probably unnoticed but the 12z NAM has LI's down into the -2 range with a pretty significant warm push into the region Sunday. Almost wonder if thunderstorms enter the picture. why not ... nothin' else goin on. may as well hear some rice-crispies from the sky.

that "warm" air is razor gossamer thin - almost like the fake warmth you get in the climbing solar days of March. Obviously ...solar ain't part of the equation at this time of year. ...but, the thicknesses are low, and any radar that has ptype built in is over to blue most places save the south coast. Much of it probably isn't reaching the ground. Scott mentioned this like ... four days ago I think it was.

Heh... as is, not liking that deep vortex over Ontario squatting over top those Gulf/OM heights though. You know, ..this almost smacks like we are just getting too cold above the 50th parallel, too early... Meanwhile, the southern latitudes really aren't seasonally yielding ...much. But that just creates gradient saturation -

The 120 hour to me looks like a prelude to a NJ modeler but just needs a little bit more in terms of jet mechanics... Which overall is a different look entirely compared to prior cycles. The earlier runs had more southern isotach curvature/wind maxing in the TV region at 120+ but this solution seems to have finally, entirely committed to abandoning that - which may very well have been trended since yesterday ... But now, we have this weakly negative tilting deal up around Chi-town with some cyclonic surface response, albeit weakly so... end upon SE of CC a day later. Interesting to see that wave space just sort of swap out like that over the last day. As Nick and I were discussing yesterday (and still appears to be the case...) there may actually be more large --> small scale support for something in the D8-12 range. There is a less than obvious if still suggested mass-field restoration look there.. As other's also note, that's usually when/where things tend to happen, at those modulation intervals. blah blah.. seems like playing this tape for 10 years now but luckily for us, these physical properties of our world take billions of years to break down, huh ...

Sorta true for the GEFs spread, too.. Interestingly the GEFs spread has been slowly inching west over the last six cycles, but...weakening the system as it comes. It may be data sparseness ...

Essentially... it appears there is 0 consensus for next week. So, does that mean 0 storm? or, does that mean overt pessimism is automatically right - It's a really, really touch call there...

and (phew!) the GEPs ensemble mean is spread back west compared to the 00z run ... for the 5th..

Just throwin' 'nother solution into the fray... the always correct with no cause for doubt 'ICON'ic p.o.s. model has a low end warning even for the 5th...

Meh... any warm up out there is about as likely as any storm before it - But, what do we mean by warm up - there's that question too. That D10 Euro is a 9 to 12 hour skimmed warm sector in that evolution.

well, yeah ... surge, but that's a separate matter to my wise-azzing. I was ribbing about the air itself.

yup, leaning that way myself. There's a subtle index-related mass field correction signal in that 10th of Dec range. It's not hugely obvious - like a massive PNA phase reversal from neggie to posie...but, should the antecedent -EPO lay down the cold across the Canadian sheild, then the flow relax underneath...that is quasi to a similar thing. sort of complex to describe. But it is also speculative... I think if the 5th has legs at all it's going to haulin' arse anyway.

Ahhh.. not sure. Too early to tell... the AO tanked a couple weeks to 10 day ago ..or at least, started too. At least for this side of the hemisphere, the subsequent southward migration of the mean westerlies(core) means "pressing" south and into the tropics, which of course are still loaded with summer hang-over. It could be endemic to the season, or just endemic to this first run in with -AO. Unknown - I'm not sure about 'why' 2016-2017 couldn't shake the Neptune shenanigans. I recall that happening much of the time last year, too, until late February and the -NAO era began.. Presently the NAO is rising and will spread neutral positive before the weekend's over... and go patently so next week... But, we do have a falling EPO and cold load deeper in the mid range - at a conceptual basis ...rising NAO means rising heights in the Middle Atlantic /NE regions, but with the EPO falling ... that complicates the picture. If the couple decent in heights out west tucks ... in Ebonics, we be f'ed! ...If the heights and cold spread east... we end up with fast flow because it "compresses" against the opposing +NAO.

Not to be a douche ...but, not much more than any guidance saying yes or not to that event/time range - All these guidance types have been taking turns. Nick was just saying that wave spacing is an issue and he's right. I commented on that myself a while ago - the flow is festooned with S/W's, any one of which could get the job done but when the flow is fast and their hunched together (for lack of simple way to say it) they don't have time to engineer the gig ...

The hyperbolic commentary is cute in that ... how does wind "funnel" across "open ocean" - nice. But yeah, almost scary lookin' ... cold deathly N. Atlantic November witch water engulfing the land...

Yup ...in short, exactly. A slightly longer version...Will touched on this earlier but there is a lot of negative wave interference in the D 3.5 to D8 time range. It could certainly play out that way... however, just note (for the general reader) these impulses are currently being sampled outside of the physical sounding grid - Sat and other extrapolation/interpretive methods are very good but they don't tell the truth necessarily; a fact we sometimes see play out when events "get lost" only to come back. Sampling is a bit of a separate issue...the wave spacing could be handled better with better sampling (perhaps.) .

yup... llv slosh back as the initial warm advection momentum renders off to the E... pulling rotted polar right back down... Question is, ...is it 41, 37, 32.1, or 31 type air. Pick one but ...yeah, could/probably would be the 37-41 during 'tuck' after maybe having ticked 43 ... blah blah welcome home. As the whole baggage lifts out though we may return flow Monday and be rather balmy comparatively prior to deeper CAA. Agreed... good day for football and drape closing on Sunday for SNE but there is time of course...just speculative.

Brian country may want to consider a > negligible icing scenario between 65 and 80 hours. And I'm not sure how far S in CNE that may extend too, as even in the higher resolution models, if an ageo. trajectory kicks in and has a llv cold sourcing that will tend to terminate premature (latitude) in the models for any valley regions/and/or E of the ridge lines.

Dude - you can't penetrate that mind with logic ... Oh, it has the capacity, but is deviantly on a PR campaign since circa 2004

James ... there are glaring differences between these two ... just to help you out. I sense that you may be identifying just the locations of (+) and (-) nodes in your comparison, and then leaping to passionate conclusions (heh, so to speak..). If so, that approach is not seeing crucial aspects with the interstitial relationships/limitations in between those nodes. It's alright. Folks don't come along with that knowledge necessarily built into their filters, so don't take this as chiding. First and for most, ...the flow is too fast in the lower panel. Look over Old Mexico to Bermuda: when you see that entire axis is in a 'laminar' construct ....with lots of isotachs smashed together and smooth, that means the flow is highly compressed. Compression = high velocity. You don't want that ... A January 2005 redux would intrinsically require a slower field, which if you look at the geopotential height gradient tapestry of that top panel, the flow is much slower ... key: outside of individual wave/spaces/impulses identifiable in the flow, the winds are lighter. That aspect is important for both slowing systems down .. giving them time and space to maximize. Another way to think of it: the total torque budget of the system is conserved at the S/W scale...and not borrowed by torque already used up in L/Ws ... screaming along like Jovian wind bands - mind you...I'm speaking in hyperbolic terms there, but just to help visualize the point. Secondly, the individual wave spacing/morphology is not even in the same ilk really, even if the flow of the lower panel were slackened off... Wrt to the targeted impulse in your comparison, I'm assuming to be the fast open-wave structure over the lower Ohio Valley area, vs the compact(er) mechanics diving through Wisconsin of the top. It "might" be that the structure of the S/W is different partially due to the compression differences ... but, open wave mechanics in a progressive field isn't really in the same ball-park of cyclogenesis type --> evolution. Point being ... you can have open waves in weaker overall gradients and vice versa. There is a bit of mastery in knowing/learning to recognize which wave structures are 'heading' toward a negative/closure, but.. the baseline requirement is not having over say... 80 kts of wind outside of S/W spaces. Having pointed that out... yes, you can have powerful flat waves in high velocity saturation that create fast moving robust storm ... They snow prodigiously along < 500 mile wide corridors... Essentially, Dec 2005, or November 1987 are variants of that...But those are not analogs for Jan 2005. Another aspect/difference, which is more systemic in nature: Notice that 'hook' low you see just west of California? Commonly referred in met parlance as an "outside" slider (yes there are 'inside' sliders, but both function similarly), that feature is a positively feed-back to the compression E of the 100th latitude(s). It's existence in space and time ... by exhausting latent heat down stream of it circulation, that is helping to rise heights from Texas throughout the Gulf/Florida and adjacent SW Atlantic Basin. The flow down there can have elevated heights anyway, but the hook look is only adding to that circumstance. There may be other limiting factors, but these in total make analog ratio between those two charts, very far from 1

I'm just down the road a piece along Rt poop and haven't seen a flake... It's definitely raw'er 'n' holy hell though.

It's an active pattern... I'll give y'all that. "robust storm" ? Mmm, depends on what one thinks of as robust. 3-6" .... 4-8" okay. Gradient saturation isn't good - oh, it's sweet on paper to see all those lines on the charts, But when you see that the ambient geostrophic wind speed is concomitantly blowing at ludicrous speeds where you have the line densities ...And with too much balanced wind speed like that, S/W's tend to be fast movers ... limiting embedded cyclogenesis - albeit that doesn't mean none. Thing is, ...that is all true, but doesn't mean your backyard can't lollypop its way to 12+ is a meso band with CG .. .I just mean your not getting hornet sings on the chart. And the big dawg numbers are rarefied.

I've read that ...somewhere. Mm. might 'ave been via Extended range forecast discussion outta NCEP a few weeks back. I did find the 12z interestingly flat with that wave. Ironically, it tends to over amp troughs (and ridges for that matter) in mid ranges, so that east facet, as well as this one in question... sort of fly in the face of it.

yup...that 'bout sums it up for me. the EPO in the GEFs, I'm not sure how it compares to present EPS mean - Scott's been mentioning that it hasn't looked so good overall, but I'm not sure whether he was considering the EPO domain space and won't type words in his hand, but, I have personally noted that the GEFs seems to do very well with the EPO domain/index. That could certainly just be coincidental to the last five or so years, but they've predicted some of the NP-Lakes -...NE and southern Canada cold shots with very good lag - But even if the EPO's magnitude is not handled perfectly? I don't think that really matters for determinism. The index has had a neggie sag for like four to six days and it's getting more coherent. Enough so to question warm signals. I like the idea you implied there ...re the EPO sort of bullying into the 'relaxation'/warm up's wave space and sort of gumming that up. That's huge in the offset department.

Sorry if the self-quotation comes off in bad taste but, the new EPO numbers were just updated on CDC's site from overnight, and they did exactly what this statement above surmised/implied they might... The previous night's computation had this signal neutralizing closer to Dec 7 ...now we see it arrive extended to 10...AND, depthier. To re-iterate the 00z Euro's operational notion of pooling continental syrup in Canada is still out there, as a plausible cross-guidance lurking signal... Curious what the 12z looks like - EPS for that matter. At this point, at least in so far as the GEFs are concerned, I have a problems with any warm assumption with this look below.

Yet another in a panoply of examples of how Human activities (if it is indeed because of Human activities... but saneness knows the truth...) is OUTPACING the background capacity of the planetary, both bio to geologic processes and back, ability to compensate. Hence the poking of the sleeping monster metaphor. Not that you don't get that but... waking that demon up is when these surpluses begin instructing a new paradigm - that is probably the greatest gamble in Human history as to what the paradigm will include. Personal rant: I mean it's like... denying Human kind as causal, forget that layer of the problem for a moment. How exactly is that a reason not to act? That's the whopper logical flaw in the denier side of that argument that the scientist and/or activists fail miserably to point out. The truth is, they don't want to act, first. Not healthy skepticism - what's going on now, by and large, is a ruse of the latter. The simple truth is denier's have a faux luxury of GW being invisible to their every day life, such that is easy to choose not admitting to the crisis, over the despair of the reality. Obviously, because they have special interest (...usually economically...) that are ultimately going to be adversely effected if they do. It's not complicated - so they and lobbyist and basically self-centered ilk ...they ferret any plausible deniability ...which protects those interests, because they do not see/sense any imminent consequence. It's not just an empirical crisis - it's a sociological/psychological one! I have close friends in the doctoral circuits of higher education, in atmospheric sciences, and in social sciences, and THAT is the daunting fear they discuss at their meetings. And it leads to one inexorable conclusion: there has to be a holocaust before people admit to the problem. In a lot of ways...it is really akin to suspension of disbelieve --> living in illusory bubble is being enabled, by the lack of sensible impact in everyday life.