Typhoon Tip

Guys ...go check out the 18z GFS from 190 hour and cycle thru those charts going onward. That's about as fantastic a synoptic cinema about a Blue Norther in Oklahoma and Texas as you'll ever see ... And by the way, that 200 hour seasonal switch is hugely signaled in this particular run's totality... I don't know, that -EPO seems to mean business. There's now an inside slider cold anomaly situated into the Pac NW as near as 90 hours and an upslope snow event way ahead of schedule. good call there either Will or Scott or whomever that was - not sure who but there's been talk about snow levels coming down out that way. It's buyable at this point - ...I should be clear... by seasonal switch I'm just saying more discerned evac of continental thickness and resetting the dial downward.

Oh it's in there ... folks are seasoned return users who've mastered the art of bargaining - it's just as annoying

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown. It is ... disconcerting. I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events. Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs. I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.

Yeah, totally! And that's a fine example of this facet. But it's not always cut-and-dry, either. It's 100 for three days in the first half of some July, ...then, it's 55 for three days in early August ... having long forgotten the former inferno. It's smeared, and often happens in the aggregate, such that making up for climate happens over time. Other times the corrections are right on top of one another. The GFS is sorta been buckin' for the latter over recent runs. We'll see. Climate numbers don't seem to very much year to year - notwithstanding the GW crap for a moment. But in the stable regime, if it's -10 for a week straight in January ... ahh, gotta go with a earth softener warm up in February say 50/50 of times... Part of the problem is that Devil's proclamation in there, "... in a stable regime.." We are not in a stable regime. I don't think -necessarily - that has to mean that the "make up for losses and gains" tendency stops happening. But, that the make ups get more skewed and perhaps mottled by freak events that are happening for the instability itself... Code for, it's complicated.

In any case... that's a really defining range imho. I've been noticing this across the last several day of GFS, and it seems also to be in the Euro now that the time is into it's edge ranges ...where there some sort of hemispheric house-cleansing of 564+ dm thickness along the 40th parallel. We're not exactly rolling warm air masses anywhere close to 570 and backside high pressure/warm sectors are down a lever mark or two after that ~ range. If there was any geriatric life left to this summer as to whether it's back is actually finally broke or not, I'd say that's pretty convincing.

No one asked this so consider it a straw-man discussion point. But I see this soo many times... We get some freak anomaly and usually within temporal shouting distance, there is some sort of anomaly that's occurring that's offering up enough ballast in the other direction to at least get back closer to balancing climo We may actually see the apex - relative to climatology - of this overall warmer than normal pattern in about a week. And look what the GFS attempts to do two to three days later. This happens in reality though; and of course since the models should be a facsimile of reality ( it is hoped .. ), we often see this in the models too. Really close to freakishly warm for two days prior to this panel above... and it would almost take sub 540 dm thickness to compensate so why the hell not-

You're top question is a loaded one... Empirical Orthogonal Functions ( principle component analysis in statistics ) post using diagonal cross-sectional analsysis are used to create a polynomial expression: Example (X+1)(X+1) ... or, (x+1)2 such that Y = x2 + 2x + 1 Now that y'all have a popcycle headache my work is complete...muah haha. Environmental problem solving does not end up with such easily determinable roots, however.. Solving for X requires other techniques ...usually Quadratic/"completion of the square"... blah blah I mean I'm paraphrasing through this.. .You should look up EOF derivatives and learn about them... It's how all Teleconnectors are daily derived. What's paramount is what CDC vs CPC do in their particular methods differently, though still are both EOF reliant. CDC uses the lower level wind flux anomalies at their grid points. The CPC uses the mid level ( H500 ) geopotential heights at there's. When you ask the question: "You know what I'm curious about...if the loading pattern for the AO is defined by 1000mb SLP why are 500 height anomaly/height fields used to characterize the sign/strength of the AO?" there really isn't much difference. You didn't ask for the difference between CDC and CPC ...but I thought I'd take you through that so you'd understand that the mid level geopotential deviations (CPC) drive the surface wind anomalies - those two are inextricably linked via mass-conservation kinematics. So, saying the loading the pattern of the AO ( typically the 1000 mb wind flux anomalies ) is actually also an inference of the -AO (blocking at high latitudes) causing the lower level fluxes to take place. So yeah ... 500 mb height anomalies at CPC are used/available to the public ( not even sure if the CDC calculates the AO actually ..huh interesting ) but if the AO is negative, cold loading into and below the 60th parallel is increasing. As an aside, it's why the EPO and NAO are important ... because those indices may say something about where a -AO is setting up conveyors. You sort of hit at this a bit in our longer second paragraph and I like that approach. It's not enough to just assume (-)(+) AO will lead to x-y-z...

'Course ...no sooner do I post that missive and this ...

Yeah I'm really impressed by the gradient being set up by the models. I know Scott's also mentioned this, as did I several days ago when the Euro started putting up 24 C 850 mb slope between Montreal and Boston back whence... Here is the synoptic overview for the D9.5 (only used to elucidate the gradient..) This example circumstance is more akin to an early April wave event - yet even more extreme in a sense because we're not likely to find 576 DAM thickness in warm sectors that far N in mid spring. Still, this is unusual for autumn - I think it may just be a consequence of the erstwhile -AO preponderant summer lingering into early Autumn, in that we are setting the continent up for cold loading earlier; meanwhile, we have a bloated Hadley cell latitude height bias all over the world. These two are increasing the ambient gradient potential, quite plausibly these types of layouts we see below are a result of that enhanced polarity around the 50th to 60th latitude band where the twain shall meet. I suspect this could continue just based upon the unrelenting -AO total bias. There are times when that index has alleviated toward neutral SD (standard deviation), even going positive. But over the longer term the modeled positive ventures of the curves out in time seems to get correct down, while the nadirs do just fine to verify either as is, or even lower. That's a 2ndary correction? A non-obvious subtle trend that needs to be taken into consideration for the transition season, overall, as that darn AO has often thrown seasonal outlooks for a loop. Even NCEP has admitted - or begun to do so ...- as of about ten years ago, that regions from the NP-Lakes to NE are prone to non-ENSO related modulation of their temperature biases - code for, 'we can't predict the peregrinations of the AO out in time with any dependency, and when it is negative, it can and often does usurp the ENSO forcing' In fact, this latter facet still doesn't really resonate very well in the outlooks that come from the social-media's sphere of environmental science enthusiasts/pass-time professionals that play around with that sort of thing on-line ( hint hint, like in here ) ... Be that as it may, I suspect we have chances for huge temperature variations across baroclinic cycling, throughout middle latitudes ...and a hurried flow tendency ( also concomitant with enhanced mid-latitude gradient circumstantially in the mean ) helping to roll out cold into warm episodes quickly. Probably through Christmas or so... after which the seasonal nadir starts to show up and we finally decompress the Hadley cell hang-over swollen headache.

Sometimes the GFS just looks less than 'organic' in it's attempts to flip seasons ... it's like it's forcing - heh...

.... Do you think that's getting better in the decades to come ?

From what ? ... I realize that's a figure of speech - er, probably. But I'd just assune it stay 88 with Tors and Canes until the day after Halloween .... I mean, seein' as that's totally possible -

Will ...that's a prelude to a ice storm - heh...

Not to be a wise-ass but no ... that warm ridge is the bigger of the two anomalies - we have to integrate between the curves and it doesn't take A --> B to see that the regions inside the warm anomaly occupy the greatest surface area at that depth; which concomitantly means it is taller in heights over a larger volume compared to the same departure/distinction coupled regions out west.

Fortunately for the world ... there is no logical correlation whatsoever - even in a politicized climate debate, which in its self is absurd to begin with .. - where Nazi-ism has any iota of relationship in the mathematical justification vs denial of the greater climate debate/truth... That entire exchange (abv) could not be more patently absurd, and is entirely contrived nonsense. come on man... is anyone in here modestly intelligent -

I'm interesting in the next 10 days to 2-weeks for historical precedence and climatology - which we won't be able to compare until after the fact.. But I'd like to see a ranking against other 20th to 10th relays in the past... it's probably a tedious study as climate numbers tend to be bundled by months. Need a date-to-date reanalysis ... I think NCEP does provide a web interfacing for linear numbers look ups. The other aspect/hypothesis I'm toying with is that the preponderant -AO is helping to mask what might be a historic Hadley cell intrusion into mid latitudes. That's important, because we've had some heights that should have put up lots and lots of high 90s this summer but other than some middling heat here and there, it's been an 89er. The way that works is, the AO is suppressing the ambient polar jet S of normal ... not hugely so, but just enough. Plus ( for summer standards ) that means more gradient than normal along the 45th and 50th parallels ..also a subtlety by say an ishypses or two, but that's enough for the following: As ridge/trough couplets then roll along that axis in southern Canada, the confluence intervals are engineering unusually strong surface high pressure regions that are occasionally ( in models ..) wedging in quite far underneath those higher than normal heights. This, between 35 and 50 N... That means easterly llv wind anomalies/factoring. Continental heat plumes are adulterated and/or failing to get dumped into those ridge scaffolds that would/could otherwise support hotter thickness/diurnal temperatures. So what we are getting is modestly above normal out of heights that look like they'd support an inferno. This is also compounding further by the fact that the lower Maritime trough is a near permanent fixture ...and that the models occasionally fill and that faux warms the mid/ext ranges. The Euro's been doing this every other run for like five days re that particular synoptic concern. But, it adds to reasons why we are disproportionately cool relative to heights over all... Last night's 00z run walls off the bigger numbers due to that trough shunt - though the EPS was less. Basically, it's been a historically hot heights summer ( maybe ...conjecture ) in this paradigm, but is not represented in the dailies. Fascinating what lengths Gaia will go to hide GW from one of the chief constituent society's most guilty of causing it - I call this this a "cleaning cycle" on the global oven. Gaia wants to get rid of Humanity, so ... keeps us thinking it's cooler than it is, while using us to turn up the heat - ...how devious. Ha! just kidding...

We need a freeze ... bad https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/22/health/connecticut-eee-death/index.html

Doesn't matter ... . 'cuz Moneypitmike FAILED failed failed failed to hit 80 at the pit ...topped at ( only phew, thank god) 79 with a "*"

Be on the look out for undercutting ridge wedgies ... heh seriously though - with the preponderant -AO and the westerlies loping ridge/trough couplets along southern tier of Canada, we are occasionally seeing "cheating" high pressure cutting underneath with easterlies ... Heights can be 590 ... it wouldn't matter, we'd end up 55 F with upslope goop up there, and drizzle coming into eastern New England. Somethin off-setting like that anywho - That D6-15 has been steadfastly ridged in the EPS but the operational is every other run with llv interference synoptics like that so I'm a bit weary. Also in that it's been a summer long trend with the -AO summer. Plus, are we really filling the Maritime trough this time ?

I bet the mid tropospheric heights comparison to last September would be interesting ... Can't confirm this from here, but wondering if this presently modeled scenario is warmer - in other words, totality of the tropospheric circumstance is hotter this time, but idiosyncrasies in lower level pressure structures mask it the other way around? ...'course, that might be more meaningful "if" the EPS/oper. version blend verifies so we'll see.

It's amazing how broke summer's back looks between D6 and 10 on this Euro run, huh - Heh... but that gradient at the end of the run is interestingly looking...

Yeah it’s been remarkable how steadfast the EPS has been on that warm signal… And now seeing it shift a little bit east like that is only upping the stakes

Not sure I understand the process/reason for down-spinning the significance of this warm air... Be that as it must be, maybe y'all won't have to wait too long. GFS oper. with the first implied snow in New England - obviously this is not happening per se, but it's crossing a model precedence/first of the season in doing so..

Wiz' is fascinated with spiders ... Seems he's posted the old "what kind of creepy spider is this" a few times

Autumn 2006 incoming?