Typhoon Tip

You know what that strikes me as ...? heh, seein' as everyone's askin' me - But, we've got the benefit of latitudes at all times, and sometimes, ...can rely upon that as sort of 'built-in' correction vector during uglier times - which I don't think any objective observer would deny, if one is a winter enthusiast, the mid and extended range is otherwise a sore to the eyes... Anyway, rhymes aside... I'm just sayin', sneaking fronts and scooter highs and so forth...Those don't really 'fit' a teleconnector mode, per se. And can happen just as benefits for our being as far N as we are. This is really true for the NP-Lakes-N. OV and N. Mid Atlantic in addition to our area, but it seems out of all these mentioned, we have more chances to 'sneak' and save once in a while.

The NAO is fickle ... duh. I mean, we know this. And, even I was proponent for the "possibility" that more -NAO like constructs might evolve out in time, .. oh, about two or two.5 weeks ago .. thereabouts. Simply because there was a gesture then, lurking in the extended range ensembles, for cyclone trajectories to begin a more E bias of the CC lat/lon - as opposed to the other route, which curves them up into the D. Straight as transient black holes... But, that behavior in the models has not manifest its self further, since. In fact, it's gone. So as experimental as that was at the time, it was noted that there was no actual blocking being modeled in association with the suppressed cyclone traffic? Rather, it was the suppressed track alone that gave sort of an impression that a -NAO, and the supposition floated was maybe that meant one was kind of buried in the din of the background physics, and that one might emerge with more of the typical, total attributes given time... etc.. Neither has taken place. Yet, the CPC's forecast for the NAO has it neutral-negative entering week 2, with mop ended disagreement among the members. Not exactly selling confidence in the idea of -NAO. I guess in total, I'm not seeing much -NAO ...at least coming from the GEF's related products. The EPS obviously carries along it's own outrage, but I haven't seen it's fist waving. Just looking at the free sources that are out there, that can be used as "spacial extrapolators" .. unless the NAO is very westerly biased, it's hard to image ( at least thru day 10 ) being able to fit a -NAO anywhere west of 50W at high latitudes given the evolution of the wave-lengths. Excluding the possibility that the EPS has a -NAO of -2 SD pulsing perfectly not too far west to suppress the flow and speed things up and destroy all hope... I think think there is nothing to look forward to, and that people will conjure reasons to offset that despair as the main social-media thematic arc over the next ...however long it takes. Some of those alternative points of 'election' will come true - rolling dice sometimes pays off too. Most of it won't though.. But, this is by virtue a changeable engagement; that much is certain. And so with that certainly, there will definitely at some point be something ( finally) look forward to again as far as fun cinema - the game afoot is patience. Personal perspective: The NAO is far less helpful to us than most people can even begin to conceptualize, given to the intense imprinting they went through when they were coming of Meteorological age in the mid 1980s through the 1990s, when that particular teleconnector was popularized, and the boon era of mass-media weather coverage then really galvanized it too deeply the collective gestalt to ever have any hope to reality wrt to what that index means. It was like the latest and greatest diet pill - too bad those svelte users now have heart-valve trouble. No, the cold loading pattern in North American continental pattern is the NE Pac... If that happens first, then a west based -NAO block sets up as a large systemic 'relay', that can enhance cold transport into Lakes/OV/NE... But NAO's in and of themselves are a suppression storm track indication, and when the NAO is statically negative, that's not good for snow enthusiast because it compresses the flow and speeds it up too much for cyclogenesis physics. Cold? sure... You want pulsed -EPO's with pulsed +PNAs, first... then, the NAO can help or hurt, in equal measure in either direction, provided it is not 'getting in the way' and also, depending on particulars of it's integrated modulation/permutation type. None of which can really even be remotely assessed when the former is in abeyance by the hemisphere for whatever reason ... and what there is of it is a PNAP that is wildly undulating in both directions. Meanwhile, any NAO? has almost no confidence for even happening in real time and space to begin with. I will tell ya though... I have seen this sort of flat-lined hopeless, vitriol troll-inducing sort of circumstance set up several times since 2012, and most of them don't last. I mean logically you can almost assume it can't... because the pattern is really all over the place. Look at the D10 Euro... Obviously that particular time interval is never going to 'be right' on that model or any for that matter. No. But, that ending setup with those huge undulatory wave structures west to east across the whole hemisphere is really an homage to chaos taking over.

First it gets warm then it gets cold BOOM

Just making an observation: This ensuing 'warm up' and its governing patterning, particularly on the heels of a -3 to -5 persistence that spanned a month, are both a nice homage to this Hadley Cell expansion, as well as the notion that when the -EPO faucet shuts off, the rest state is wildly in the other direction. Middle latitudes of our continent can boast some of the most extreme variations over relatively shorter 'intra-seasonal' time-scales than any other regions of the world that are of similar distance from the Equator ( outside of local spatial regions that succumb to unique smaller scale forcing). This was true 1,000,000 years ago ... 100,000 years ago, 10,000 years, 1,000 years... 500 ...250 ...and today. It's always been that way. The reason for that is because of our geological relationship with the atmosphere at very large scales, promotes the southward displacement of cold air masses from higher latitudes. When that occurs, their termination is usually forced deep into old Mexico and even Florida in extreme outbreaks. You won't find that air mass in Hong Kong for a reason, even though they are only ~ 5 deg of latitude different, comparing those two geographic regions. It's because there is large scale topographical interference pattern of the land mass working in 'synergy' with the large scale circulation of the atmosphere over North America. Metaphorically, the continental shape is like a 'funnel' ... some 1/4 or perhaps 1/2 of the seasonal patterning will result NE trade flow out of the Ferrel Cell in eastern Canada, while there is NW conveyor setting up in the NW Territories of Canada, and that air has no where else to go but south like no where else on the planet. In 2019, the extremes are made that much more extreme I have noticed since the year 2000, that when the -EPO turns off... and the Hadley Cell resumes it's polarward anomaly, the turn arounds are rather handsome. This period is nice homage to this ...and is, among so many other more subtle ways, an example of GW playing a roll in actual, empirical climate change. Note, this is not a forecast in any way, shape or form, regarding the warm up its self. This is just an observation of what it looks like, how it has been modeled as of late...and what that interpretation could mean is far as flipping an impressive -4 ( what it takes to maintain that depth in verification, notwithstanding ..) to perhaps a period equal if not more so in the other direction. It seems we are taking the normal tendency for enhanced continental-atmospheric feedback/harmonics, and making that even more extreme, due to the background increased hemispheric gradient of present era Earth. I find it fascinating... if perhaps unnoticed. If I were ask? I'm inclined to suggest a significant cold wave threatens the nation nearing the first week of January... Perhaps starting west as they usually do across the continent, and spreading east, with reinforcing cold loading while that happens. It's very early speculation ... but the GEFs EPO mean is dropping beyond D10 and there is some -40 C 850 mb air being generated by many guidance types over the western Beaufort Sea/over toward N of Russia, and these are initially independent large scale observations, ..where any subsequent tendency to displace that mass would be a rather harsh reminder... So we'll see where all that goes, but just like the large star is dead 10 hours before it's outer limbs registers the shock wave of supernova, a time in which to an outside observer, the star continues to shine totally normal ... the warm up has no idea its already a corpse too.

Ah. Miss read. Heh

I thought I was getting better at doing that come on Jesus I know I toned this way down. I think what it really is is people are just spoiled and Don’t have to think. And I’m not a graphics dispenser.

Anyway I don’t frankly think the euro is right i meant GFS

I almost wonder if it’s cold over in Eurasia during that model time… That happened back I think it was late in the 2006 in the early winter all the cold air dumped over there and we got the sun and obscenely warm January ...then it finally turned in February we got like a late winter

This ultimately makes money by allowing people in and making mouse clicks .. If it’s moderated and deterred that’s a big cut into the profit potential? Don’t know but when this place started swimming in banner ads it got really suspiciously relaxed in the moderatorship and it seems to add up.

good call! Really nailed it ... how did you ever know that would be the result.

Paltry lift through a marginal 850 layer, falling into a surface cold layer. Better UVM it'd be all snow everywhere. But as is, you get shredded rad pedestrian gunk. Next - ....looks like N/NE did okay ?

Funny tho - ... while the 'startling epiphany' not to trust the models and invest emotionally into a storm that is on D9 charts is certainly wise, take a look at the mid range 120 hour operational GFS panel off this 12z, and compare it to the 324 hour panel ... That's virtually an identical synoptic circumstance comparing those snap shots. So, despite the sage-like advice, it's only counts when there is a storm on the charts in the D9 range... Because you know balls to wallz your getting screwed at 120 AND 324 hours when that's being depicted that way!

Fwiw and future reference... The tea-leafs on that were in the stalwart WPO's positive ... That' index tends to relay into the EPO rather effectively, such that unless that positive/negative coupled in the first panel was preceded by the WPO's falling index - which it was not in this case - be leery of any negative EPO. This time that tendency put up the faux omen, but has many times in the past as well. If the WPO descends first or in tandem, that's a better indicator for an EPO crash.

FOUS grid has big numbers at LGA and Logan ...too. Over an inch at LGA in a zr bomb ...but nearly an inch at Logan with one interval of a tall sleet column.

Worst than this impact implication? ...This was posted by someone, and it "precipitated" ( puns are free at this store ...) the consideration that he GFS was more consistently aggressive at the time. It may be a matter of opinion, but the Euro got more aggressive than the GFS had to step down. The percentage of correction on this particular interval doesn't appear in the Euro's favor. I dunno -

Agree with this much ... In fact, hard pressed [ most likely ... ] finding scenario where the GFS' lowest 200 mb of troposphere are handled very well because it's just apparent ...they've got a problem with the thermodynamics in the planetary boundary layer when it comes to that model. Re the other...you have a run there that makes the appeal of the Euro better - and is, in situ... But, three days ago, the GFS went through 7 or so cycles that were stolid consistent, and more akin to present consensus; when the Euro was paltry for total impact with consistency troubles during that same span. I have a very clear recollection of these, and there is a post I made back then in direct homage to that, which went unsung or really acknowledged..Now, on the eve of this thing, the Euro gets credit - k'

Heh...I don't know about that Will. My "perspective" went from no impact or minimal by the Euro, to something much more... GFS may have had a bias or two, but the percentage correction indicts the Euro on this one. sorry - will agree to disagree with anyone on this. The Euro was worse.

a few lucid members mentioned this at other times over the last five days... more than a half the members, didn't seem to acknowledge typical with popularity schemes and crowd mechanics -

lol ...when in boring holiday meeting at work ... i don't wanna talk about that in this thread, either -

Yeah..right, secondary effect ... I mean the falling particle mass - 'how much is frozen' Impact prevent total... it has to. I'd love to read the paper your refer

I think it is interesting that originally way last week we were speculating this was an icier potential and pattern for those, then, ...here we are. This appears poised to be the main concern with this. Despite any model selling since..

It can be more extreme ... I mean we all know this that are weather dorks, but in the Plains you can get some rather uniquely physically stressing soundings, with 19 F within 2,000 foot of the ground, and 44 F melting above the BL, where there is yet overrunning convective elements in the sub-mid levels producing lightning and thunder fall rates. It does happen ...rarely. I've not seen it first hand, but have seen live video of orange flash, thunder boom, and raining hard enough that the air appeared foggy at relatively short distances with a temperature of 19 F. Heavy or not, you're efficient - just a matter of whether that efficiency and rate of phase change competes with fall rate... Obviously, it's never 1::1 - it can't be... hydrometeoroids splash on contact too..

Speaking of making a call and not mentioning ... The NAM's tripling Logan's QPF in the FOUS grid comparing the 06z is classic behavior in short terms whenever you see PHL/LGA on that product with bigger numbers. Not always... I'm sure the famed PD storms of last century that move bombs due east of the mid Atlantic, and cirrus milked the Boston skies didn't do that, no. But, balancing in the synoptic evolution ..prior -6z run did not make sense having PHL/LGA be nearly an inch of QPF while Logan was paltry, because the trajectory of the former was an ascent in latitude. Whenever I see that, I count on the 24 hour lead to go robust - ..here we are, boom. .75 in snow with IP contam

I was up at UML in 1990s. We had forecast games - and folks cared! There was a national one, and many university students and faculty engaged in it. I'm not sure how it was maintained and networked. It was yet quite early in the Internet era but ... I think it was still done via nonetheless. The local in-Lab game was fun and probably even a bit too stressful for our own goods, considering the curriculum of more science-based Met programs and all those rigorous course works. Lord knows, that was enough (thank god for grading exams on bell-curves!). Still...the diversion had it's need. Do you know that our Senior year required deriving the Navier-Stokes equation, long hand, before allowing our escape with a degree? Start with a baser thermodynamic and a baser fluid mechanics equation, and by the time they are fully integrated... one line becomes almost 7 pages long. Which is why I formulated a mortgage-paying career in software engineering, and only hobby weather, instead ...And also science-fiction writing, ...etc. But point being, I realized along the way that actually working under a heading of Meteorologist is just a label. You still 'know' how it works, and know how to forecast for having your experiences... Labels don't change who you are - the rest is just a form of immaturity and requiring the adulation of others ... if not some petty celebrity for a moment. Once one really connects with what all that means ...they can read the charts, figure for a bomb in 18 days, nail it... and no one ever knows they made that insight, because they didn't care to mention it. Their truth gone forever. And they could not be more okay with that, as there really is no loss in the first place. 'Sides... life really doesn't matter - oh, there are certainly things that matter to you, of course. Once you get to middle age, an awareness gets harder to deny. Accolades seem to fade beneath the universal shadow cast by the reality: everything in reality is merely a human construct - including one's opus'. All value systems and perceptions of self, or ego... even art, all of it. Meaningless. These are aspects that disappear...vanquished when the last point of light fades from awareness and the "soul" ( only for lack of better word) disperses to oblivion at the end. Not trying to be depressing here... "really" more like 'releasing' ... peace. Once one really and truly connects with how meaningless they are, it's very liberating - it's like being in a walking talking DMT zone. Not to be confused with caring for your wife, or your kids, your siblings and best friends... giving a shit about community, and not wanting wars. Because...that'd be weird of course. We can appreciate splendor. It's knowing that you are traversing a tapestry of reality - which is just another form of art.