Typhoon Tip

Well .. obviously. But it’s an educated guess, One based upon classic meteorological principles combined with empirical trend analysis - the latter of which spans two decades now; and as such, both converging on a very possible predominating winter characteristic It’s hilarious… People seem to ignore and/or want to battle this concept yet the instant the hemisphere tries to cool off from the north south what’s the first thing that happens? we get a storm developing moving at ludicrous speed amid a cosmic jet - right out of the gates right out of the gates. Nice

I’m sure you do. fast flows are physically prohibitive of blocking. Unfortunately resumes aside that principal exist regardless of whether we want to believe it or not Navier-Stokes for the “wind” Ha!

It’s called fluid mechanics ... Aspects certain folk had to learn all proper like y’all

That’s kind of a problem - it’s hard to develop blocking with an antecedent fast flow

Heh. not sure it’s a good idea to allow one’s self to be wrangled into day 5 precision impact calls ... I’m inclined to think less impact given these unilateral model scenarios of the system moving at like 70 miles an hour bulk velocity… It’s a zygote circulation south of Long Island and it’s deepening as it’s passing ... at an impressive rate yes, but it’s borderline whether it’s in time to really impact southern New England. I’d say the greatest impact is the upper coast of Maine up to Nova Scotia and so forth given the present modeling tenor Heights are too high from Texas well prior being ejected out of the West, out along the gulf coast/Florida/adjacent southwest Atlantic basin. This whole amplitude is kind of like a rock skipping off a pond - spatial metaphor

Yeah...I don't think this thing has time to do much impact... Seriously hulling ass! It's deepening rate is impressive but it scoots from ACK to east of D.E.M in like 5 hours - ... by the time the cyclostrophic field turns around proper-like, it's already been sunny and over with.. And by the way, get used to speed contamination ...

It's all tedious really ... I mean, not to dissuade others from keeping track. But, this level of detail seeking ... ( not to mention if they are veracious - we are always finding out that a clad data set is found to be flawed, passe' ) it's all stuff that seems more appropriate to those stationed out upon a slab of faux Terra Firma, just slightly too big to actually be defined as a mere ice-floe, with portable sat-dishes and a battery, jerry-rigged to send current in AC to a lap-top. They're scrambling to get one last empirical data set entered before their scheduled hilo's arrive and whisks them away before the the PV's cryo hell engulfs the setting. These kind particulars will resonate to those walking sectors of society - and of course are important for discrete sciences back in labs and University desks and white-boards and what have you. We in here, we're internet junkies finding free publications of their findings, to repackage surrounding our own hypothesis - okay, but for what? Here's a thought: There's a tendency toward a microcosm of what goes on out there, just colored differently when we play a hedging game with decimals, in here. The reality is that we are obsessing over serrated elevated points and dips along a curve that's descending clearly to hell - no matter how we cut it up and look at it. The fact that we do, strikes me as a kind of bargaining tact. It's same shit that is happening out there is society overall. How? Those that are finally coming out of the auto-pilot, knee-jerk denial stat and are accepting that there is a problem, there is a tendency to fall-back rely upon this invented notion, that it is somehow "unclear that Human's are the cause," .. Um, no. That's bargaining. It's just taking on a different form/color. I don't want to say the word appropriate, because that sounds stilted, and almost toeing the line, and not questioning authority and ...well, for better or worse, I'm too maverick at the core to do that, either. However, keeping it 100,000 mile perspectives, is the appropriate conclusion nonetheless. Because, delineating lost ice as less than 2012 given the reality, absolutely should not allay the concerns, certainly not the gravitas ( that is real ) of the problem of a climate change that is highly probably caused by anthropogenic forcing ... Not even by decimal amounts of fear for that matter. I don't wanna be out of line? I just would hope there is not a "bargaining" thing going on here, where one might even be less aware they're doing it. It's where if 2019's data is less than 2012 that somehow, in some deeper way enters a plausible justification for "phew, that was close" - I mean... close to what? Irrelevant ... It's not stopping an inevitability to 'make sure' 2019 is decimals less. ha ha. Ultimately it doesn't matter... Fact of the matter is, for all the work that's being published to this site's social media depot, I could not locate one general populate out among the provincials to the bourgeoisie, in a random sampling, that [most likely] even knows it exists. Ha ha. It's kind of funny - doing endlessly, something, that makes no difference. Hm. Kinda flirts with the old insanity definition, huh. But, we engage in this shit because we are hobbyists, and well.. concomitantly we have an interests. And that's fine, too -

Heh. That was in deference to the thing later in the week

Coastal storm is pedestrian ... The bigger eye -pop there is the mammoth Rosby roll-out and the sweeping chinook warm up across everywhere and including Michigan to Maine and points south, D7 -10 Which btw, that look and the U.S. ensembles all did an about face on the previous tele signaled and explain why tele -reliance in transition season is at times just as back-stabbing as the operational runs. We'll see if this has legs ...or if we head right back. I'm not totally sure I buy it? That Hagibis is a large influx - I'm just wondering if this expanded H-cell business might absorb that too. Just think, we keep this up and maybe no teleconnectors will be worth a shit at any time of the year

Can you imagine the ballz on this guy ... That bucket's gotta be some kind of prorated to get those boulders that high. No amount of money -

Mm... missing the point as usual I see. Cooking cutting SNE for misery while everyone else basks in relative utopia is not the same thing as autumn typology. We are getting screwed period. Enjoy -

That is really cool .. Look at the arc in the central/eastern Atlantic.. .That is the aftermath/turbulent mixing result of Lorenzo ...

Mm ... I'd argue that's the new paradigm actually.. .regardless of ENSO. There is evidence of expanded Hadley cell over the extra-seasonal time spans and it's increasing said gradient regardless - I'm sure it's possible it won't be that way ALL the time, but.. the balance of the rest state is one featuring enhanced subtropical to Ferral latitude isohypsotic slope. Which again... folks may very well observe ENSO as less coupled to the atmosphere in present eras moving foward because of that, for SD events that fall below a certain magnitude. I keep pointing this out... but, few seem to acknowledge it before resuming the same mantra and reliance. But last year ... it took until mid to late February ( as NCEP noted ) for the atmosphere to demonstrate any response/coupling to the state of the NINO fields. It's one of the reasons so may forecasts busted from the private/novice sector - because those linear reliance' are all f'ed up now; the correlations don't work as well, when they are related to the previous 100 years, when the last 20 years of which are hockey-sticking. This isn't just superficially plausible jargon - it's physically sound and being noted by agencies. But, if we want to just blink twice like robots stuck in 'does not compute' feed-back loop and fall right back into that +5/-5 ENSO stuff... okay. It's just that after all, this season outlook stuff is speculative - it's nice for the sake of cogency in my mind if folks actually begin to acknowledge this possibility. Even if we want to say, I am not including for now but it is possible - something. I think there is nothing wrong with forecasting SSTs mimicking a weak warm signal, while the atmosphere behaves like a La Nada? ... I guess we'll let the chips fall where they may... But, that means that other factors ( like the EPO/AO/NAO arc) may be more representative. It's fascinating stuff -

1993-1994 was like that... It was either a +NAO of such extraordinary magnitude, or... perhaps one that was like a "west-based +NAO", either way, we ended up with NW flow bone rattling cold, in between lots of systems entering confluence ending up shredded overrunning affairs. I guess in this sense,... the NAO can giveth in multiple ways huh

It's almost like it achieving an April affect from difference means... Although, I've seen that kind of whirl on satellite in April last two weeks before... perpetually jamming atlantic vomit up against the western geographic wall, so does it really matter whether it's subtropical this or cut-off that? not really... How many times do we see a subtropical entity at 40 N moving SW in mid October ? That, right there, ...is an example of an expanded Hadely Cell... I mean that's just wrong ha

days and days of submerged solar energy pretty much everywhere SW-W-NW of SNE, while we rack up phony cold biases... I don't like it frankly. This blows. We could be 65 to 70 with tepid autumn sun kissing Kevin's napes with the perfect amount of soothing warmth ... Yet, anywhere east of the Berks? Bum cursed - it's just unrelentingly brutal. This is what D6 since it was sunny and anything approaching mild... ?

Any question as to whether SNE is really is a marine climate ?

It's the behavioral difference that tell the character of the field imho - These statistical comparisons and variance as elaborated upon, they are very useful as gateways into a deeper realm of "arctic-introspection" - it is only there where the 'gestalt' reveals what is really going on... The fact you elucidated above - to me - is a fine expose on a way in which the arctic is shrinking/in crisis, both faster and worse than mere numbers suggest. Because when the edges start receding earlier springs, and the recuperation is being delayed - and allowing further melting while in wait - in autumns, let's consider: It really is a matter of time before the instraseasonal melting factors of 2012 will in greater proportion, recur/redux ( I would argue they did not this year; we are just further alone in the assault crisis on the arctic domain so we may be converging on a similar look in that sense). But when the former does - while there retarded recuperation and earlier erosion dates taking place - that's a synergistic acceleration effect, right there - and it would not be necessarily something suggested by these linear statistical comparison very well. As well, tell the real story. Not you per se/personally .. .but "people" in general don't get that synergy, or 'more than the sum of identifiable/constituent parts' is an emergent property of complex systems. They are not allows evidence-able. But when they are, they can have striking presentations. It just offers another layer in the communication issue/denier political diplomacy headache, in that getting folks around to admitting a problem ( be that by force or not...) is one thing; try then explaining that, 'oh, by the way, this is going to be far worse'

I've actually noticed a "dumbing down" of the general skill from the human side of operational weather as the state of the art of the field has become ever more reliant upon automations and/or point-and-click conveniences avail in general. Just one in the myriad of ways that we are living in an expose of how technology effects Human society. It's a fantastic subject for digress and it is taking every molecule in my body not to go off into a patently unreadable diatribe ( haha) as only I seem capable of creating... But, sufficed it is to say, we seem to be passing through an evolutionary turn - it's a great sociological experiment along an evolutionary inevitability we've arrived upon as a species so powerful in our ability to alter the environment with the extremeness that we do. We'll leave it at that... In the mean time, ... I distinctly recall reading AFDs both at the local and at the continental/more regional scalesj as recently as the 1990s, that were far in a way more intellectually guiding? They just sounded smarter. The biggest difference I can detect between now and then is the technology servicing the disparate eras. Now, part of that could be just our own evolution as individual reader/consumers of the information. We do get more sophisticated until 80 years of age - when the other direction kicks in. Maybe stem-cell research will have an answer for that one day. But, mm. I don't have a photographic memory, but I have a very good one when it comes to having read and/or seen things in the past. I can compare in mind's eye pieces written from NCEP in their Extended range discussions, that were truly instrospective and insightful back in the day .. they were almost more speculative in fascinating ways. These days, there seems to be a cow-tied tendency to regurgitate what was just seen on a model prog/synoptic chart. Yeah...we know, "SCHRIPEL." We just saw that too. It gets so much so that I don't read read them anymore. I've noticed the same thing with TPC... They don't hash out risk areas anymore, unless some ensemble systemic-based output does first. I don't think it is necessarily bad? Despite the overtones here.. Because, otherwise, why invent the technology. Eventually, we have to use it. I guess there's plenty of room for interpretation there, in that reliance needs to be gauged - obviously relative to the skill of the tech being employed. So perhaps 'over-reliance' is the simple conclusion here.

Not to be fussy but is it a really an analog? I mean, ...yeah, this probably does have some cyclonic phase stressing that's more hybrid that purely baroclinic - sure... I buy that. But, that 1991 thing had a full bird cane engulfed in side of it. This does not have that, that which goosed 1991 toward the warm phase diagram area. I guess it's a bit of a philosophical thing. I mean, it "looks" similar -sure. hugely so ha. But is it physically the same?

What do you/we think is the next step tho - This isn't going to end well for traditionalist, I'm afraid. As machine intelligentsia gains 'skill' that inexorably leads to a future that doesn't requiring human staffing. I mean I don't mean to lecture - obviously you know this. But I often muse of this issue and you're reminding me of it. It may be hard to project a vision of what that will mean, but it is not beyond the realm of possible to automate all of this shit. Like, everything, and actually do it without the cost of Human error too, which for better or worse, appears to be the goal ( intended or not ). True, the technological ambit is not there yet, but its coming ... If we really wanna get Sci-Fi futuristic there, which I'm sure this isn't being read beyond this point in this shimmering modern era of virtuosity to the written form... just wait until the "weather modification net" comes on-line. Ho -ho man. That'd be a sad sad day. Part of my own fascination with the weather has always been the mystery of what is in store. It's taken me to middle age here, after enough epiphanies over time as to why in the hell I am so obsessed with where the models are going - and seeing that relay into the actual - that's is satisfying curiosity. We all do this, in our own inimitable ways. But at the heart of it all, it's really motivated from the same seeds. It's the intrigue, and the entertainment of it is the satisfaction of that wonder. I suspect much of which is rooted into that evolutionary aspect of Humanity that sets our species apart, and that is that we have exceptionally evolved sense of curiosity. When one wakes up from a cat nap on a warm humid summer afternoon because a clap of thunder cut into their fugue, what's the first thing that passes through their mind: It's a raging curiosity to see where that is coming from - at the heart of this nutty compulsion it's just curiosity. The weather modification net destroys that outlet that taps into the primal sort of drive about discovery and seeing the world around us. They'll use some exotic frontiers of electromagnetic spectra to enforce quantum momentum of all particulate barionic matter that amasses the atmosphere, such that there is no uncertainty - i.e., weather controls. Yep. No more storms anywhere where it can adversely physically impact a society. They'll have them spin thousands of KM's removed over horizons, while regularly watering the land and replenishing general hydro between 2:45 and 4 am, precisely, every night. Course, there'll always be a nitwit that tries to sue for getting wet despite the schedule. By day, always sun, with puffy picturesque cu placed with the deliberation of an artist's brush upon the skyward canvas, instructed in its x-y-z coordinate with precisely calculated mass and ultimately, utter irrelevancy to anything that resembles waking up to a clap of thunder on a warm humid summer afternoon. Every day, day in ...day out. For ever. The ultimate in mordancy conveyed via the splendor of a technologically enabling utopia. Until such time as the 'net fails, and then a more fractal -guided previous dynamic would resume. That would be the storm... people trying to sabotage the system, because in the absence of the weather's chaos, they cannot make sense of it all.

the 'swaying sky scrapers' makes it! hahaha ... oy I don't know what that is from, but it sounds like a numbed version of a p-wave event off and asteroid impact scenario.

Not for me ... I was down on this all along... case 1 NAM is routinely too far W and NW with cyclonic influence in the west Atlantic. Not sure if that is true everywhere...it may be something unique to the oceanic-continental interfacing that exerts intense baroclinic compression in that vicinity that sometimes entices the physical processing of the model to overdo it at times. case 2 I'm not sure that is entirely untrue for all guidance frankly - if perhaps just more vividly coherently biased in the NAM than those others. Several significant cases where W-NW arcs were too extreme in models ... NWS bit hard on a Euro lie just a few recent years ago ( for example ) when that model was backing in a whopper CCB shield with 20+" of champagne snow in 55 mph wind gust clear to NE NJ and they had all of NYC in a high-end headline blizzard warning ... which busted with equal failure in the other direction. This stems back too... The big event in March 2001 that pivot into a C-NE and effectively jilted everyone ~ south ..that thing was originally slated to be an MA/NE juggernaut and that all but failed in most areas outside of central and N NE ... case 3 I mentioned two or three days ago that the isentropic surfaces on the Euro did not look that impressive ( anyway... before even considering the biases ) which made me wonder where the QPF was really coming from.. .Yeah, we could have argued for oreographic enhancing but 2 " ? heh... that's what I was seeing on some media coverage and I wasn't honestly a big fan of bigger numbers. I am actually singularly impressed that a cyclone of this satellite presentation and verification even got this far, considering the antecedent loading/kinematics were so weak. It seems this low was really almost born out of planetary torque balancing more so than a typical 'slug' of wind/max associated vorticity advection in the deep layer. Default in other words, ... big high moves E of Ontario over 2 to 3 languid days and all of the basic S of NS is in an E trade scenario probably just ends up twisting in on its self. Not sure that has the same mechanical forcing to drive a heavy rain shield W though. Some of this part is speculation... admittedly. Overall, it didn't sit well with me and I said so. This system really was an epic waste of time and coverage. It really had 0 redeeming value to it... All it did was ruin the sensible weather for three days, while simultaneously busting forecasts.

That two to three days should be watched actually - I mean legitimately so, not just the typical model-physical fractal bomb of the infamous D8 eye-candy, either. That's pretty well signaled as temporally concurrent with the PNA teleconnector doing an about face and at least for a short duration ...soaring upward along a 3 or more standard deviation correction. That usually signals something of a western ridge-eastern trough couplet with more amplitude than less to put it nicely. Also, the MJO has been hung up and trundling around in the Phase 8-1-2 of the Wheeler chart in the models and their ensembles from both the GFS and Euro clusters for some time and that also is constructively interfering.. If that were not enough .. Hagibis is in the process of reminding Japan that she sticks out in the middle of TC cross-hairs like a white-supremist lost in circa 1987 Compton ... and just as that metaphor suggests, its' corpse will be completing absorption into the westerlies during the run up to those dates... I think that may be more a forcing that shows up afterward, as it will like take some time to transmit that signal's wave dynamics into the gestalt of the larger circulation over the N-NE Pac into N/A than just a week from now. Still, I suggest the recurving in and of its self is an indication of the underlying canvas for a -WPO tendency which sets the stage really... Kind of fascinating to see these evolutions show up in the operational. I mentioned to a couple few days ago that I though the 20th onward had a shot at being strikingly cooler than normal with storm threats... I don't see any compunctions in moving that up a little with the on-going suppressive tendencies of the AO we've enjoyed for so long. If that reverses suddenly ...okay. But just like the last positive ensemble mean, the index had to correct less on top of timing and then went back negative - I can see that doing that again... We'll see on that. The GFS ensemble all carry some form of amplitude through the flow D7-10. For general weather enthusiasts its a system to watch. It's too early to consider p-type from this range, or climate notwithstanding.