Typhoon Tip

heh ..would it have helped if I caboosed that the missive with the prepositional phrase, " ...in February" ?

http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/present.htm

Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it.

Not to be a prig but based on what ... outmoded climate norms? Good luck.. When the CC isn't just changing it is by all present observation 'accelerating' in doing so,.. oops The gist of your point is clad though - I get it

Not sure about 'preview' per se ...but, when the whole hemispheric eye-balled integral results in solidly above normal heights, that becomes a hemispheric problem

Yeah... 41 F with mist and light rain unrelenting is chilly

Mah... it's stimulation withdrawal syndrome ( or is it 'withdraw' ?) The more dystopian entertainment people get, anything less makes them feel 'empty' because acclimation means they're not being accelerated to the same sense of urgency - which they use that drama to replace real values systemically missing from their lives ( as an add-on (btw) ). Even in the histrionic din of upped dramatic storm frequency ...there's going to be periods of relative offset quiescence ..and folks are just going to have to get the shakes we guess.

What's wrong with this picture ..

Funny how folks get engaged in this, what really amounts to a veritable support-group therapy/ social media outlet, then...act surprised when people are less than entirely analytic about stuff. I've really begun to question the lucidity of > 50 % usership that regulars here. These are individuals that have tendency for attachment disorder ( feel empty otherwise..), and use what is actually ultimately going to be unfulfilling and non-dependable for emotional release ( by way of channeling through the less likely to succeed weather drama ) - prophetic failure, folks. Just to replay tapes - transference. Hint, when J. Q. poster says statements like this ( random made up example to make a point ): "I don't care anymore. I'm tuned out and have accepted this isn't our year. Sure, I wouldn't mind the big event to bring it back to life but ...blah blah blah .." that is called 'bargaining.' If that person really believed the first part of this sentiment, they would not write the 2nd part in bold. So it is disingenuous and eye-rolling. Simple truth is, folks should not channel joy fulfillment through 'modeling cinema' - ...much less, whether the day weather is x y or z. It's ludicrous. It's a support circuit for those who have mood deficiency based upon SAD or -SAD or climate derivatives, and that's just not a analytic engagement. And no I am not immune to this - I'm in here too.. But I will absolutely never lie to my self.. My biggest fear in reality and life, is not knowing what either is, and that starts when one cannot reflect upon how they fit into either. So yeah...I've succumb to this crap too.

The perennial solar min ends today ... so it begins Kevin's favorite time of the year when sunny days warm the interior of cars almost immediately more noticeable. And if there were a snow pack the eat back factor kicks into higher gear. For me this is more symbolic of the beginning of transition season .. tho obviously seldom does the winter give up without a fight .. and some years that protracts deep into March. You just have to accept inevitability on a dwindlng hope curve of ever lower probability. Probability is never 0% ... in 100 years you get 1977, May. In 1,000 yrs (say) perhaps you'll even get one in June. 20 yrs for post St Patty's Day Aprils etc... - so people wisely or stupidly set their expectations accordingly.. Those are virtuals to make the point. And the given year's tenor certainly plays into human woe-is-me factor too

There's not much room for that sort of 'spooky action at a distance,' poetic reward for this journey if the flow doesn't relax, tho. If it doesn't the probability becomes quite remote

those eastern Canadian cold delivery scenarios have been over charted all season -not surprising.The others will probably back off some too in lieu of progressive characteristic of the flow correcting matters, leaving the region with pedestrian nape nip and some hurried walks across parking lot type cold.

it'll end up the st lawrence seaway

yeah... forced GW mapped up under boreal winter height hemispheres 'ill tend to do that

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Yeah, climate change is a hoax... it's amazing how that 150 years of empirical evidence has been faked. I don't understand why humanity can't just accept the dark society's gag reels of landing on the moon, dinosaurs, and climate change - yet they keep getting sucked into the conspiracy to fake science. Unreal -

We just went through it... it's ending in 5 days.. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html It's just me but I have personal terminology I use to categorize these things and this was what I call a 'flat EPO' cold loading .. It's basically just a low amplitude EPO that almost behaves more like one at times when not a more discerned ridge up over Alaska. It came on sneaky because of that, and there are -20 850 mb plumes circulating through southern Canada in the models now a couple days down wind -

It is ... that's precisely right. +AO -70 C at 500 mb in 1900 is a +AO -50 C at 500 mb in 2020+Climate change... Folks ( not you per se but in general ) need to realize that the poles warm the most because they have the greatest cold to shed. It's just a matter of numerology in the upper vs lower limit of Terran atmospheric thermodynamics. Those regions that are very cold, will warm more than those regions that are already hot. It's really not complicated; that means the the poles warm the most in global warming. etc.. By the way, I read a report that some station in Antarctica put up a 65 the other day. ... speak of the devil. Granted it's summer down there, but I believe that's a historic number.

May not be what folks want around here in terms of what that could mean to us in our pattern and storms and all that stuff true but… It’s not a bad thing for the Arctic region because positive AO all winter means they are developing better pack ice

Why not it was already 70 in January… Is there any doubt that can be done in February when there’s that much more sun/solar flux… Particularly since going back last five years and three of those years either February or March had temperatures in the 80s… Almost seems like it’s relatively doable anyway

I'll fire up the thread ...

Euro's got it... or, something like it... Problem is, the flow is so fast that models seem to be spraying buck-shot. It's hard to know if these guidance' are referring to the same system in that time range. The Euro's got two small and one middling shearing out mess to manage out there from D's 4 thru 10. And the GGEM has been vacillating on that too -

Anyone wanna start a snarky sarcastic storm thread for the D7 gig out of smite ?

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

Thought y'all might find this interesting... https://phys.org/news/2019-12-el-nio-event-year.html