Typhoon Tip

Fwiw - the CPC AO recently updated this morning and indicates most members falling > 0 SD by the end of week 1 ... continuing to descend into week 2 ... Not sure what that source is for that graphic, but it might be related to that bifurcating structure there... One aspect I'd like to bring to folks' attention ... a descending AO is good on paper ... not so much in practice if there are other factors interfering. Namely ... should the general circulation structures over this side of the Hemisphere align in favorable or unfavorable constructs for actually delivering cold over the N/A continent. We've seen -AOs in the past ... concomitant blocking into middle latitudes happen to situate favorable for Eurasia ... When those took place, -45 F headlines out of Moscow are seen during 45 F mornings over here. That happened in 2007 ... S of the 55th parallel over North America was basking in hatred with 59 F high temperatures in Tower Minnesota and fully thawed Earth from the lower Manitoba plains to northern Maine through December... The AO crashed in the first week of January, but it really took until almost the 20th of the month before the roulette wheel wound around and set up a pattern conducive to deliver cold here. It did ...and February saved that winter with a couple of decent events toward/for winter enthusiasts. The point of this is, the AO is half of it... we need to have the relay as well. Which is why one should be worried about the Pacific ... I am still not abundantly certain whether that west-north-northeast Pacific are going to be entering a favorable AA, or unfavorable AB phase (the former correlates with -NP/-EPO). The primary cold loading pattern over N/A comes from variations of that ... Typically, I would just rely upon the CDC 'public' products with their WPO and EPO but ... with the appropriations breakdown and the CDC being shut down for business... I don't know of any ancillary sources to find those indexes. If the WPO is positive leading the MJO --> phase 7-8-1-2 ...the MJO's ability to modulate the pattern could remain in a destructive wave interference throughout that migration ... and vice versa. I've noticed that the absurdly powerful GEFs MJO mean has been weakening in the last couple ...few days. About five days ago, CPC really soared that curve (as we all know..) to the edge of the WH diagram space. As of this morning, it looks more sensibly strong if not pedestrian in magnitude...as well, the end data points are picking up sites into phase 7. The fact that curve is weakening prior to the wave actually progressing that far ... indicates that the Pacific "might" indeed already be less in sync/breaking down. The operational guidance versions haven't changed. They don't look or even hint as of the overnight runs ... of really sniffing much of this out. I'm not sure if the following comment has much operational merit but ... I wonder if this may materialize in a more coherent pattern change all at once ...quick fashion. We'll be living our lives in silent frustration and than all of sudden we're looking at monitors and portable devices and it simply can't be true ... Then of course we have wade through all the defensive posturing by those who in reality only suppress their own giddiness. So the short version? (... haha, made you read)... Despite the less than savory tenor of the operational runs, the GEFs -based teleconnectors flag changes for the winter enthusiasm. Again, EPS notwithstanding...

Yup...I get that impression vicariously.. heh. But even in the GEFs based products it's only partially illustrated - that may be all that is needed. I don't know but the PV signature has been vacillating between a three-nodal split and a two from what I've been observing fwiw

Is that wrong though ... using straight GEFs? The warming intrusion has verified... I don't speak for EPS but I know the GEFs ferreted that out a long while before it happened, stuck with it through verification. I guess we can now count on the EPS and forget giving credit where credit is due? My experience in the past with these spliting pv events is that they are not well handled and can lead/precipitated rather abrupt whole-scale pattern changes ... really quick analogous to crossing a threshold ... It may in fact be when the plume begins interacting with tropopause just as a guess... In any case, it's even possible the split is underdone. We don't know... I don't think - correct me if I'm wrong - that the EPS is masterful and handling this sort total evolution either.

For those that get to see those ... is that a hemispheric rendition... like polar stereo ... if so, geopotental heights? I'm wonder if there's any semblance at all of a -AO We're probably about 10 more days from the typical down-welling SSW correlation on the AO... which (hypothetically) could be just far enough away that the tropospheric modeling isn't feeling that exertion just yet. ... I mean, it's a pretty prominent signal ... to have 0 signature is almost dubious

Yeah.... but under the radar ...that year alone is the hallmark key-stone identifier of what it meant to live and breath that awful decade. Almost like if that one month right there had not been a spate of seemingly impossibly horrendously bad circumstances not stopping once.... that decade might have got a D- Symbolically ...paying for 1978 with a 12 year prison term that at least had work-furlough ... if it ever was "decent" That's what the decade was like. That might have been the first time I ever connected with the cold-rain-cold-rain irony, come to think of it... I remember Christmas that year... A storm system was moving N up the coast and hugged the inside route, and Harv was on T.V., and I recall his words, "... I realize there are those of us that would like to see some white out of this storm system but it really is not in the card..." Solid frozen mud and dirt with rain water flowing off the tops of lawns... I very vividly recall that December as doing that frequently...

haha! I was thinking the exact same thing - like he knew before he was born to be pissed about those years. funny - 'mother f'ers!'

Omg ... looking at Scott's Intellicast radar at that arm of precipitation ...and it just starts raining. On the seam of December and January...it just starts raining. This is a rain-cold-rain-cold-rain pattern at the physical limits of how sore a butt can really be. It really was cold enough to snow, then, not cold enough when it's raining, period. No contention in the matter. thing of beauty - Commiseration aside... just looking at this Euro run... man, we're still just in that same pattern we warned about back on the 15th of December when we started that part II thread. Although, in that ... contained disclaimers that cold anomaly relative to all could still transpire. This is not transpiring either... Natural tendency to do this... my self included. We all kind of more or less collectively engineered reasons to either evade the reality of the hemispheric circumstance ... certainly rushing it by. As Scott or Ray or whomever might certainly attest... it may have been a fool's errand to think much could offset the plight of the beleaguered winter warrior of this body of social media skulkers. I mean, I was sort of ... thinking just one such anomaly might happen with that thing at 120 hours ... but seeing it flip back to a warmer scenario is probably perfunctory in this pattern. It's still SE ridgy ... and is right out to the end of the Euro now D10 ... although there is some honest semblance there for relaxing.

yeah ... I know. One of the benefits of a classical education in this useless compendium of scientific rearing. ... is that you get a pretty clear and coherent understanding when a granular freebie product's 0C line means "0 C" heh. I mean... you don't really need an education per se...it's a bit of tongue in cheek there. The impetus is just having synoptic weather chart experience... If there is a fresh polar high N of Maine, a 0C line in the same position sans such a feature, one will parlay more favorably than the other -

it's not a bad 'index finger' approach but ... "0C line" and the 850 sigma level is typically 1350 meters high... In this situation, that 1300 and change may as well be 1,000 miles .. One thing that occurs to me looking at all the model ... there are westerly surface wind anomalies extending across the entire Canadian shield below the the 55th parallel. That is a circumstance seldom seen prior to New England snow falls. That was true actually during those model runs two days ago that toyed and tempted the weary beleaguered ... Then, we get this hiccup run that flattens the system down to nothing, only to have it come back as a rainer... It almost seems like the writing was on the wall that a correction toward a p.o.s. was coming.

Keep in mind... you can "crash temps SE to the coast as the low" winds up .... and have that still mean rain.

Mm, I'm curious what that entails ... moving average is made to be in error, if the movement is taking place along a non-constant rate of change. Acceleration is noted in the system... too. But, heh...we're probably ultimately talking about decimals too .. I think they need 3 months - so if indeed it's that high than I was incorrect with my original assertion up there that it's not technically there. Below is from CPC's resent pp fwiw -

I'm not sure I agree with that physical causality between the SSW and the MJO that isotherm is referencing... There is a statistical correlation that suggest so but my own research and reading on the matter suggests there is disparate causes. The MJO phases in late 7 through early 2 correlate with a -AO ... true. But that correlation does not appear so much to be caused by the intrusion of warm in the stratosphere and/or then inciting it to plume downward toward a critical interaction space with the tropopausal depths. The 7/8/1/2 MJO phases correlate to favorable mid latitude cyclogenesis patterns ... those then enhance the easterly anomaly in the 50 to 65th parallel band of the hemisphere. That "mimicks" -AO. ... and in fact, reflects as a descension as provided by the EOFs. However, raising surface pressure consequentially do to blocking and confluence modularity will also enhance said easterly anomalies in that band, and that can happen at times when the MJO is other phases. There could be partial but ... I think it's risky to site that as total in why x-y-z.

"standard"? nah...no predilection exists over here in my mind. I was just using/reporting what they're indicating but if we need to disagree with them...sure. If I had my own buoy network tied into WAN sampling NOI and SOI and thermalcline depth/Kelvin wave distribution ...I'd be better prepared to formulate a discussion. I definitely agree with your sentiment in bold though... I covet my own hypothesis which... admittedly, one's supposition doesn't necessitate a collective adherence - haha... But, I'm not entirely certain these ENSO states are being normalized for climate change along the way. If they are...that's great! If not ...that's comparing against a system of observations gathered middle last century; I might have a problem with the Law of constancy in physics in doing so.

Based on recent model performance ... which frankly is under ancillary scrutiny ... that system is justifiably a pure physical-fractal processing enhanced delusion. We only need 4.5 days then anything even so much as a sentence is warranted in my mind. Blind darts

Right, so they get their data circuitry the exact same way ... got it. If that's the case... fine. Like I said, worth asking.

what? "weeks" ... There's a fundamental logical flaw in your statement: time That curve has not looked that way 'for weeks' because 'weeks' ago ...the curve existed when there was no shut-down. As an aside ... I have read that when there is data sparse-related grid failures the flop the ingest over to the most recent progs for those grid points... So that does offer a little bit of 'crawl along' decay.

I think Chris is the one to ask... Again, I'm speculating Please don't read in and/or take what I'm asking as statements of fact - This is a 'partial government shutdown' ...one in which all evidences availing... IS closing CDC for business. I'm just thinking/wondering outside the box if that may have bearing -

We have to remember ...the Euro org is a private firm... What's in their contract? Does it have a clause for "not held responsible to systemic failure do to processes of a foreign sovereignty charged with overseeing data source" ? or what? They have an arrangement and dimes to donuts, its in sophisticated document for legalese purposes - none of these wrenches, and hammers and vice grips in the tool-box that we've strangely morphed into sexual gratification tools (heh) just engender in a vacuum. I'll say one thing... if it turns out that the initialization and supply to these outside agencies is a non-issue...? that means that these progs from the GFS vs the ECM could signal just about anything and are those not useful to determinism. Great...every dimension of reality in which we look at this thing, turns the turd turdier

I'm starting to wonder what we can trust in general ... pending some sort of clarity on how the gov shut-down may (or may) be effecting (ultimately) these products... I don't think anyone's even considered that - it may be nothing... okay. But, I noticed the CDC's entire operation is lights off mice scurrying under desks down for business ... I'm wondering how far Trump's demonic intent to cripple civility if he doesn't get to make him and his Russian business rich, extends...

I'm really curious why there is such a huge disparity between the present MJO prognosis coming from the American cluster when looking at the ECMWF... Could that have anything to do with the gov shut-down? Like...I don't know what the organisational relationship is between the ECMWF and NCEP ...I'm pretty sure they get much of their western Hemisphere data from the Americans... If that is directed/channeled through CDC ... are they experiencing an outage of their inputs ?? I dunno - not a statement here. Just an inquiry. Chris? Something has to be driving the differential, but the difference in the strength and overall mechanical presentation is passing over a 'pattern correlative' thresholds so it's useful to ask in general. These sources do tend to vary some...but this difference here is suspicious looking,

I'm surprised Phase 1 is down that low... interesting. 7--> 8 ... 2 fits... That 1 may be noisy butt bangin - hahahaha Know what we should do/suggest to the site overseers ... if there is such an apparatus - We should create a link that posts some rudimentary reviewed data of this ilk... Call it, it "primer" (soft 'i') ...such that newbies and greeners and less than ideally prepped enthusiasts can at least be exposed to these things ... Instead of just sitting around and waiting for the drama of the dystropian model series to somehow put substance into their otherwise barren, vapid, tortured empty lives. haha, ... seriously though... 'Sorry, I'm being a douche this morning... anyway, It could be evolving, too... updated from time to time with cutting edge. Even nest some links in the JS/HTML that go to AMS publications... AMS glossary... Public-accessible repositories that have paraphrased articles from peer reviewal

Yeah... and pointing out the obvious ...that's a three month mean compared to a single month. Plus...we'd have to vet their data sourcing... Are they going to tell us that they "might" or "could" be using just two January points versus 1300 for all three months? No - ...least, I don't see that in any disclaimers and so forth. I have read at CDC, however, that their cross-correlations table is subject to oddities in the numbers ...and also, that the correlations may breakdown "...when in quadrature..." ... Which is amazing, that they would use the word quadrature in publication to any resource that is available to this particular state of society we bump shoulders in... j/k, ... but what that means is similar to what I was just describing to East' there about the west vs east based NAO...etc...etc.. But pertinent to discussion here, if CDC admits to less than ideal linear relationships in the numbers/numerologies .. heh. But... like I was also just describing to East' ... I think the MJO's exact influence has a reasonable enough pattern-related relevance to expand definitions anyway

It like holding a tuna sandwich out to the brink of starvation, but pulling it back for the sick evil joy of torment... Yeah, no .. There are MJO progs more appealing than that. That's one of a few scenarios being offered by the panoply. Sobering reality here: any of which could not only be proven veracious ... but end up proving the more dominate pattern correlation. Boy, ...it would be nice if they all were blasting into Phase 7, huh. This is a social media that is open to the public, ...with relaxed contribution screening practices by nature of what it is. Folks that happen by this internet and use it for an actual source? Heh, it's tantamount to using pre-regulation era Facebook for 'cutting edge' political insights/news to formulate a decision on voting intentions prior to a huge election. Truth be told, I've seen probably twenty MJO reposts while skulking around these subforums during down time over the last couple weeks, and your's may in fact be just the 2nd time one was posted that happens to be antithetic to this "pattern improving" motif smoldering amid the embers of a torched December - figuratively speaking... Otherwise, the vast majority of them featured the "good" WH curves. All the while, I have my own MJO tenets I covet. Like ... I don't believe the MJO is really a pattern driver. I believe it is a pattern augmenter. In fact, I don't believe I am even alone in that. There was huge popularity over the index that took off in the 1990s. I know... I lived that era. Those days months and years featured (probably) the greatest era of general model and insight improvements, which necessarily meant a ubiquitous awakening to the usefulness of, along with continued sophistication of teleconnectors. Folks started bandying clever turns of phrase to really put themselves on the map, both intra-office and internet venues. Including, NCEP's discussions ... to evening Mets on television exchaning back-end emails in the general ambit community. But, those same discussion circuits today? They don't always contain the same assumption spectrum. Whether the NAO or EPO or MJO or WPO ... AO .... astrology...they're used more cautiously .. in quadrature, too (that means, in smaller segments )..and conditionally. Which is really how they should be. Hell, even we in here began distinguishing between NAOs as being 'west' or 'east' based... Really, the comedy of that folly is the question of where does that end - what scales? Like is there NAO NW based... versus NAO SW ...SE ...NE ...N based?? All of which could have its own coherent storm complexion tendency, if one were anal about the data discretely enough... along the eastern seaboard (or not...). Same holds true for the all these other indices. In fact, in a quantum aware technological future... perhaps ever Plank-value of inertia in the domain is known, and there would need be a teleconnection for each moment of those momenta ...huh. wow But as far as the MJO goes... I began noticing over the last twenty years, that not all Phase 8-1-2 MJOs seems to deliver the same magic. I've seen blizzards on the east coast in Phase 4 ...albeit rare. It probably is not a huge breakthrough of reason and logic to assess these teleconnectors (in general) as not being holy grails. There are no neat and tidy 1::1 correlations in the atmosphere - duh. Even NCEP can be quoted as having said that the MJO is in either a constructive or destructive wave interference with the surrounding medium... If it's positive, the Phase 8 will "help" the on-going tendency to raise heights in western N/A... And vice versa. Basically from all this... It's sort of dubious and or risky to "rely" on the MJO in the first place. Truth be told, the PNA has been averaging positive at CPC this last 10 days. Yet, we are soaring in a strong antithetic motion in space and time with the MJO. That is actually technically a destructive MJO interference era ... I don't see how the logic is disputable ...unless we change all the correlations. This whole pattern we are observing (and suffering) ... could very well just be the residue of that battle. But it does engender a valid question... If there is (suppose) a baseline tendency for positive PNA ... should the MJO move into a Phase 7 ... 8-1/2 .. suddenly the interference pattern becomes constructive ... and the pattern collapses accordingly. Whether folks are precisely accurate for they perceive all this stuff or not .. .the consensus more than less approaches that idea, presently. If all that were not enough ... we're still in the throws of assessing the SSW stuff... oy

Good question ... yeah, statistically, I think January 15 to 25th is more than less the climate nadir in temperatures... If January verification proves everything's a red-herring, inference alone suggests it should get more difficult after that. Heh, it's one of those questions that's reasonable at the same time, asked in frustration. So we can't automatically blame the asking on the frustration -hahaha. 2015 has it's use ...more so than filling up pattern threads with nostalgia ... having not much to do with actual patterns ... It shows the obvious that deep cold and high impact winter can feed all the way into March. I remember that early spring ...how it was 19 F at noon a week before the Equinox and I was amazed how it kept locking in the cold despite, by then, for all rites being well outside that ~ 90 day perennial solar min. Back in a blizzard in 1984 (1982?) ... Logan was in the teens with blowing snow in the first week of April. Nah...I there's more than handful of cold Febs in the data, more than enough to feel confident in having chances - getting to materialize? 'Whole 'nother paranoia.

Really ... phase 6 I guess you could get warm profiled events.. But, more commonly.. we find that where there is clouds and precipitation, cooler anomalies take place - just a matter of degree ( n'yuk n'yuk) The composites found here, http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/ ... use "DJF" ...as we can see, clearly show phase 6 as perhaps the warmer of all ... That fact alone can be used to back us into an assumption. Namely, that phase 6 should be consistent with lower storm frequency - in other words, not pretty good. I suppose though that El Nino's are relatively rare compared to the longer termed rest state of the data ... otherwise, we'd always be in El Nino - duh. So, yes it is possible that being in an El Nino may alter the results of that inference. Or asking in a 'nother e-zombie watered down way: ... bad for storms unless its phase 6 in El Nino? Therein ... we don't even know what this El Nino really is at this point... All we have is this Modoki-ness and a prediction... technically, we are not "in" an El Nino if logic were any use. Here is CPC's (fwiw) most recent update published back on December 10 ... " ENSO-neutral conditions are present.* Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are above average across most of the Pacific Ocean. The patterns of convection and winds are mostly near average over the tropical Pacific. El Niño is expected to form and continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2018-19 (~90% chance) and through spring (~60% chance). " I'm not a poet laureate but that doesn't "sound" impressively in El Nino at this time. So, I don't think we can really assess phase 6 above in either context.