Typhoon Tip

The perennial solar min ends today ... so it begins Kevin's favorite time of the year when sunny days warm the interior of cars almost immediately more noticeable. And if there were a snow pack the eat back factor kicks into higher gear. For me this is more symbolic of the beginning of transition season .. tho obviously seldom does the winter give up without a fight .. and some years that protracts deep into March. You just have to accept inevitability on a dwindlng hope curve of ever lower probability. Probability is never 0% ... in 100 years you get 1977, May. In 1,000 yrs (say) perhaps you'll even get one in June. 20 yrs for post St Patty's Day Aprils etc... - so people wisely or stupidly set their expectations accordingly.. Those are virtuals to make the point. And the given year's tenor certainly plays into human woe-is-me factor too

There's not much room for that sort of 'spooky action at a distance,' poetic reward for this journey if the flow doesn't relax, tho. If it doesn't the probability becomes quite remote

those eastern Canadian cold delivery scenarios have been over charted all season -not surprising.The others will probably back off some too in lieu of progressive characteristic of the flow correcting matters, leaving the region with pedestrian nape nip and some hurried walks across parking lot type cold.

.35" rain padded so far

it'll end up the st lawrence seaway

yeah... forced GW mapped up under boreal winter height hemispheres 'ill tend to do that

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Yeah, climate change is a hoax... it's amazing how that 150 years of empirical evidence has been faked. I don't understand why humanity can't just accept the dark society's gag reels of landing on the moon, dinosaurs, and climate change - yet they keep getting sucked into the conspiracy to fake science. Unreal -

We just went through it... it's ending in 5 days.. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/forecast.html It's just me but I have personal terminology I use to categorize these things and this was what I call a 'flat EPO' cold loading .. It's basically just a low amplitude EPO that almost behaves more like one at times when not a more discerned ridge up over Alaska. It came on sneaky because of that, and there are -20 850 mb plumes circulating through southern Canada in the models now a couple days down wind -

It is ... that's precisely right. +AO -70 C at 500 mb in 1900 is a +AO -50 C at 500 mb in 2020+Climate change... Folks ( not you per se but in general ) need to realize that the poles warm the most because they have the greatest cold to shed. It's just a matter of numerology in the upper vs lower limit of Terran atmospheric thermodynamics. Those regions that are very cold, will warm more than those regions that are already hot. It's really not complicated; that means the the poles warm the most in global warming. etc.. By the way, I read a report that some station in Antarctica put up a 65 the other day. ... speak of the devil. Granted it's summer down there, but I believe that's a historic number.

May not be what folks want around here in terms of what that could mean to us in our pattern and storms and all that stuff true but… It’s not a bad thing for the Arctic region because positive AO all winter means they are developing better pack ice

Why not it was already 70 in January… Is there any doubt that can be done in February when there’s that much more sun/solar flux… Particularly since going back last five years and three of those years either February or March had temperatures in the 80s… Almost seems like it’s relatively doable anyway

I'll fire up the thread ...

the other thing...I'm noticing in the models that as this thing lifts into the lower Maritimes it's actually losing it's cyclonic identity and is absorbing into the broader circulation up there ... This sort of seems as though this thing was purely driven by a hydrostatic balancing from that huge wind max going by the region, as the baroclinics in the lower troposphere weren't terribly well sloped. Imagine if there was -

Never seen such a large synoptic system en masse up haul ass the hell outta here so fast in the 35 years I've been sentient of Meteorological process... Just wow. It's ending in Maine! ..or will be in just an hour...

yeah.. we've been discussing that look all week. I'm n. Middlesex co here in Mass and we still have very little wind, but racing strata streets from the NNW. Probably start hearing turbines pretty quick here I imagine.

wind back around to the NNW and the sky races...still light at the surface though.. I figure we'll get an iso burst here any time ...

Looking at sat, this is sort of mock or faux eye

almost calm here

yeah right... sun comes out to a burst of snow...weird.. Also, GFS nailed the low track. As far as I can tell... it moved right down Rt 2

Yeah ...kinda hard not to when the wind max driving the system is like a buck 80 - ha

Yeah... I looked out the window and it was snowing here in Ayer out of nowhere... but I wasn't exactly paying attention to the progress of this thing, either. The sun is also out while that was happening, making for a bizarre impression.

Euro's got it... or, something like it... Problem is, the flow is so fast that models seem to be spraying buck-shot. It's hard to know if these guidance' are referring to the same system in that time range. The Euro's got two small and one middling shearing out mess to manage out there from D's 4 thru 10. And the GGEM has been vacillating on that too -

Really would be hard-pressed to concoct a deeper violation of sore butts ... We got 32.1 F in thunderstorm density rain this last hour - just no lightning. This, in a location that was at more than one or two times over the past several days at least in the chance envelope for a decent winter storm. Heh, guess what ...it IS a winter storm - hahaha

Arrived in Ayer