Typhoon Tip

This rendition of the operational GFS features a couple of headaches... 1 ... the N/stream is still pretty much a no show. Prior to any would-be commingling of a bodily fluids for giving birth to a cyclone .. .the western Canadian handling is different. The prior pristine bomb destinies really began with a ridge modulation in the short side of the mid range up there in those previous runs.. such that they constructed the means to send an important piece of N/stream to dive S ... But ever since then, these models won't commit to those important events up north. Starting to smack as though it was just a sprayed solution to begin with that lucked out in timing with a southern streams. we'll see. 2 ... meanwhile, the southern stream is also different now... It's being smeared into a couple of wave spaces... It's like taking the main SW ejecta and bifurcating ... smearing the first piece off S of the Del Marva and leaving some semblance of wave space back over the TV region... From these two launch points, I could rightfully write ten different plausibilities, all of which could not be discounted ...but would happen to range from partly sunny to history ...

OH.. you know what - ur right. ... I don't know why but I keep mistaking that year's sorted disappointment with the terrible umpiring of 1998, which was an other Series debacle with the Yankees. That's the one where the 2nd basemen missed the tag that would have ended some pivotal inning that seemed to magically typify the whole Series... Both years ended with similar distaste and luck seeming to favor the rich - oy. But 2003 was the year where Grady Little and Pedro's ego teamed up in a particularly pernicious way - anyway, fixed it.

Atmospheric cancer... Never seen such systemic conflict - amazing. That's why the MJO is "unfurling" through 8 as opposed to probing the curve forward. It's because the wave is encountering fluid resistance the whole time; the surrounding hemisphere is fighting the wave as it attempts to tunnel through the negative interference. The AO is trying to be held aloft in spite of the SSW's quantifiable and real suppressive influence above the 60th parallel... Man, if and if-when the MJO gets back around to the evil side, and the SSW wanes ... that's when we see the true and ignomatic destruction of the late winter warm ENSO correlation and the 80s in February... Everyone's at a loss... Don't think that will happen... but, the deviant in me would love to see it actually. ha! I just hope we don't go through a spring like last year... Man, the snow in March was okay ...but I knew it wasn't going to parlay well and it seemed we to deal with miserable gloom mist a lot, late in the year.

We actually don't... Yesterday's various asshole solutions by the GGEM and GFS were approaching perfection - never a good expectation for D6+ So ... perhaps it all stands to basic philosophical reason that we awaken today approaching imperfection. Having said that, it certainly all gives the allusion that you need all if to get it done - but that's not so even relative to this pattern. These 24-hour tenor changes are just spectrally opposing, but also negate any in-between ways. There are guidance solutions out there that show light to middling events... but the specter of a fuller phase solution, for the time being, has set sail. I'm actually still cautiously optimistic that some sort of wave with snow will pass through between the 12th and 15th of the month... The biggest hurdle for me, is whether the gradient compression comes back. If that does than even our light to middling chances start dwindling. The reason why is because ... not only are yesterday's asshole models back-stabbing the doe eyed believers by abandoning the N/stream ... the southern component, which could conceivably get something done on its own, would then be susceptible to negative interference/damping should the lower velocity/relaxation prove to be a false hope. The Euro would be blamable if that's true, by the way...

So we are mid way through Phase 8 on the old WH ... At which point in time does this expectation on the pattern actually begin to show? Some would argue it already is... The EPS and the GEFs are seemingly in some sort of tentative accord on a steeped regime for the 11+ "fantasy league" .. Daz was speculating that the Euro was mid way through sensing a new solution ... last night when speaking in context for how any such modulation may effect the 13/15th event(s). I liked that rhetorical description at the time - although I don't know if there is any operational empirical basis for expecting models to get hung between two paradigms .. I almost liken it to "if you don't know the answer, pick C". I just didn't take that to mean that it would keep being non-committal on the next run. It's still looking sort of in limbo there... Continuity is grossly under performed over multiple sectors... So, if there is a movement toward the new solution... it makes me wonder if the 00z run simply stalled for a cycle. I frankly wouldn't pick the Euro run for the mid range any more than the suspected brain dented data formated GFS... while the atmosphere engineers the least wanted realization along the way.

dude...don't post words the require people to google racy meanings at the office... j/k

One thing I'm also noticing as the extended is coming into the middle range is that the "relaxed" appeal of the flow we've been discussing seems to be creeping back the other way.

Yeah...it's a good approach ... let's begin by asking that/these questions: I'd say no ... not materialistically ... However, with the extended being as you observe, 'excitable in the tenor,' ... there's probably a tendency to look and assess for them with a bit more focus.

Gotta play the douche card and at least ask ... (haha) ...at what point do we connect with the apparent sequence of never getting one of those inside of D7 ?

It is boring ... grant you that. As far as that 13/14th thing, I hearken back to my thoughts/first impressions yesterday morning when first seeing the GFS' eye-popper on the BM ... that its synoptic evolution was dubious at the time. I'm pretty sure others echoed that sentiment so I wasn't/not alone. It was fine "within it's own construct" but the super-synopsis wasn't evolving ...or if it was, it was doing so covertly, and it wasn't very clear how or why the GFS was identifying the N/stream the way it was ... blah blah if one wants to go back and read ...it's like page 85 ( ). .. Then, the GGEM threw a seemingly deliberate lie-bone to keep us prick-teased along ... ? Sorry, as unreliable as that model may be, the fact of the matter is, it still uses the physical system of equations to propagate atmospheric phenomenon out in time, so less concision doesn't matter for present philosophy - it's the fact that it had it that should be of interest. If your too stupid to wrap your head around why that is all important and instead feel inclined to chide, I can't help you. It's difficult to feel confident in any call at this time. The irrational school is winning, and the "Stockholm" psychology has long taken its toll. Therein, there's virtually no one that believes based on the unrelenting exception-less abuses ...that we could possibly be preordained to any other reality than a gutted winter. But, objective observer says, ...well wait: last check ... the hemisphere is edging into a pattern change. So the models - yes ...even the Euro - as history shows every time, are prone to increased error. That's because the forcing from different scales is in flux and...well, that's where I just lost the average reader. Sufficed it is to say, they could all be missing the N/stream. Which I still feel the handling above the 40th parallel from S of Alaska clear to NF is why, which is right smack in the region where said pattern change would tend to mean greatest stochastic returns. There's something to be said for the 2003 ALCS ... Imagine Game 7. The Red Sox have just taken a 5-2 lead on the Yankees, in Yankee Stadium, with Pedro Martinez on the Mound. That's the idea of the 8th quadrature MJO pulse correlation with a +PNA and -A0 ... augmented by some SSW prequel logic. But that setting doesn't say anything for why or how everyone in and outside of Baseball knew, that there was no way in hell that Pedro was coming out of that game with a W. Powerless to stop it ... we watched, as Grady Little's meat-headed rah rah Gamma male cowering beneath the specter of Pedro's ego tragically annulled infamy. In the 8th when he was clearly off his velocity and control after 120 pitch count ... what happens? Well, the Red Sox lost 7-5 of course ...or something like that... and then of course that horrible stench of inevitability went on ahead and rotted the rest of the Series and blithely the 'Sox season ended there. But then I think about 2004 ... being 0-3 in the same damn Series against the same damn Yankees ... Could there be more abysmal aroma? ... Makes the paragraph above feel like a b-j by comparison... Yet we all no what happened. I guess the moral of this, which no one has likely even read this far ... is not to get caught up in the trend-weeds. I think if folks just really learned to live and breath and intrinsically accept at all scales of reality, from Plank time scales to eternity and back, that there will always be utterly unpredictable disappointment levied ... like some great taxation for the privilege of existential sentience ... it wouldn't allow such conditionalizing guide one's outlook.

Gfs still has a light snow event off the vistigial southern steam. The main difference I can tell is the northern stream handling. It's backed off the amplitude of the northern stream substantially so there's less diving in lakes to do the subsume capture scenario-that's really the only difference because the southern stream is actually been quite consistent last several cycles. Can somebody vet that the GFS data of formatting claim?

Huh... you're kidding right - holy shit

Yup... he's saying there's a distinct probability that it's wise to really get one's hopes very high for 1978 to be a p.o.s. by comparison. may have to evacuate the Cape -

There's such a lottery with these patterns... The pattern it's self could last 1, 2 ... 4, ... 6 weeks, whatever, but not produce or produce proficiently. But the pattern is far more certain than the individual chapters in the total story of the pattern. One if chapter 1 is the big redux of our dreams... with four weeks of pattern yet to endure. That's a cogent way to adjust one's seasonal snow fall expectations considerable upwards...

Of course...

behind but the Euro changed dramatically out west beyond D6 anyway... compared to priors - 'nough so to question handling everywhere...

Sure did ... Just the same .. we talk about the MJO but for me (anywho) it's always just an augmenter - not a pattern drive. I'm only tacitly concerned when it enters three during a -WPO for example. In those circumstances it could just get squashed and the N. Pac dominates either way. Or...it's entering 8 robustly with a -WPO? Look out -

2 would be good ... 3? not so much... The composites suggest two is serviceable but 3 gets bad really really fast.

god...if ever a day we could get that GGEM 168 hour solution parked on ACK ... oh wait -

Rock-on brotha ... Much more conducive to conserving mechanical strength --> cyclogenesis fertility. That's one... but, it allows the whole bag of tricks to get deeper in latitude, too.

I've noticed this over the last several days actually... That 'curl' of the curve and concomitant data poinst turning inwards keeps unfolding. It's interesting why it may be doing that? There have been times where the ends of the curve is splayed with mop ended members and a mean that ends in free space ... but this hole "fight" has been a tooth puller trying to get that curve to "admit" to phase 8... being kichy there but you know what I mean

This 12z GGEM run looks like ~ three of the 00z GEF members... Not bad percentage ... 33% for D6/7

Yeah ...so seeing this 12z GFS... it's variant in the stream phasing - as other's are noting - which underscores the points about having to have been perfect about those delicate facets of both amplitude and timing interactions from a lengthy D6 perch when considering that pricey 00z solution. It may be that we contend with a frets and starts of big Kahoona storms that disappear and come back in other guidances over the next two days... I think the 96 hour lead is a decent broadly acceptable "begin to take seriously" sort of benchmark but...even then, we have to remember that Boxing Day short term corrections (no analog but conceptually...) can still take place too...

Alright ... looks like I'm not getting outta that one... Yeah, 2007 V-Day storm was annoying. But the "melt" wasn't entirely weather related... putting the record straight. It was a dark, comical metaphoric comparison - as Ray duly noted - over how phasing got f'ed up... And okay - so Jack Daniels was not stopping me from getting into the bar fight.

This! word... And, even though I stand by my reasoning tact this morning ... at the time we did not have this advantage of support - if in fact we are getting it... Looks like it, huh. interesting....