Typhoon Tip

Well.. in any case, the correction assumption from four or five days ago toward a more flat wave amplitude with less curved flow seems to have been the right call given all modeling at this time. If we recall ... back whence the Euro was attempting to quasi close along ~ Long Island ... To me in my mind this has always been about whether we could instead get a narrow open wave amplitude enough to late blow up and clip on exit ... Still in the game believe it or not.. The mechanics are coming into the blah blah out west more so on the 00z. Probably pointless to mention but will anyway...the NAM is slightly more amped ... I think if we can get the 534 dm isotach S of LI we'll have a better shot at things.

Yeah... again, it smacks as assimilation vs physical materialization of input causing that variance... I don't see another source. The problem in a governing sense is that that situation mid week is highly sensitive to subtle errors ...errors that ultimately have to come from the initialization data, because the Physical equations that guide the outcomes don't change themselves. It's gotta be that wave mechanics situated over the lower GOA ... it's nearing the west coast. Ha...I'm smiling at the moment because it's really true - when one is starving they focus so intently on the crumbs of salvation. If we were in one of those patterns where we're getting snow with least excuse imagined ...we wouldn't even be having this discussion about Tuesday. Anyway, yeah Scott... in that same vein...I've long since cast asunder any expectations and even that 20 minutes of snow two mornings ago had it's place for me. It's awesome when one gives up - losing expectation will set you free!

Ha ha! ... riiight. Yeah that changes the landscape a little, huh. Up there we got other things to consider - it's kind of low-grade Mountain Meteorological consideration at all times, but enough so to matter. Sorry I don't have immediate familiarization of where other's hale from... even if it is written in their avatar region. That's because I'm an asshole...

I mentioned this earlier .. but, I don't think it likely ...particularly in the American cluster as an afterthought, the mid week would improve through the daylight hours of runs. Hopefully I'm wrong... I hate to see people frustrated ... it would be nice to give them a nice deliciously modeled dystopic bomb at all times... but, here in reality I'm wondering what's being sampled over the Pac south of Alaska.

Sure... For me, if we came away Thursday morning with a 6" snow pack outta those two days ... I believe at this particular juncture and assortment of leading indicators, that would be a pretty substantial over-achievement. We'll see... The thing is, there's an upside here - and as much as it may be hard to wrap one's mind around is that upshot probability is not zero. Poignant to say at this time... because when we've been in the dog house for weeks, it's hard to remember that things can indeed break right, when peering so long through the tainted lens of frustration. But that upside is that yes... it's not impossible, because there is a kind of "conceptual spread" that does not limit the totality of the mid week from being more. It's one of those deals... I mean, I think back to some really extraordinary positive busts. My Meteorological testicles dropped in the 1990s ...that was the golden era of having hopes and dreams shattered by a proclivity in guidance to be overly conservative ... while looking out the window at 15" of head scratching Godly dandruff. So, my hunches and suspicious and so forth are still rooted in those experiences... I always consider if there are upsides. It seems off the top of my head there are less positive busts since 2000 ... But there are still some whoppers too... 2005 December .. phew, man, I personally nailed that actually ... (amazing, as I so rarely do) There was considerable consternation as little as the day before over what would take place... The only thing I missed on that was the Trop fold/110 mph wind event over the Cape. But I pegged the 12"+ in metrowest, and even the sunset with that compact nature of that. What I'm trying to get at there is there are both modeling, and conceptual understanding, both, parlaying toward less unknown surprises that are of the "good" variety. It's kind of an unfortunate lost charm about the uncertainty of weather forecasting ... Gosh forbid we may one day lose the positive bust altogether... you can win either way.

It depends what we mean by that total? as in "IN" total...or which part? There are two plausible considerations through that period. I'm not criticizing I'm squaring things: ...So the IB could swath a 1-3" ... maybe 2-4", then end as cold matting mist and freezing drizzle depending... Then there's a "lull" if we want to call it that... And it would be possible that even without a trailing wave like Will was just describing ...enough ribbon of 500 mb wind velocities keep ripping past to the south to organize an inverted trough and some blossoming snow/Norlun- like I suppose. A situation such as that could actually snow more prodigiously than that warm advection front end of that time frame ... if ironically, and be poorly modeled to do so at that. The other is that the relay off the Pac re-enters a subtly increasing amplitude variance and then said inverted trough gets closed off; i.e., more from an an NJ model or exit bloomer. I don't see the 4-8" though, without one of those two "part II" assists however.

The operational versions across the panoply of them did regress toward the previous dynamic and/or toward crap in general a little bit though.. For three ...maybe four cycles, there was a trend to see the Tuesday/Wed system favor the trailing wave mechanics more ... but that particular facet is really gone back to almost nothing. The flow is very fast everywhere still just yet. Not just the wind velocities in the middle troposphere, but the wave spaces them selves are propagating at a bit of an anomaly. That which entangles and trundles across the U.S. and southern Canada for said time frame is still just S of the GOA ... I'm reasonably certain by geographic circumstance that must be entirely assimilated there. I am wondering if some potency, however subtle may have been lost, has taken place as those mechanics started moving through that data sparse region. Here's the thing ... the lead warm advection IB light snow to cold rain/zr would weaken further "if" that trailing potency continued to evolve... but seeing as it's gone the weakened way, that may be why the former appears more robust in recent frames. It's like relaying error back and forth... Anyway, should the total wave space favor the backside again, that would cause some neggie interference to roll out ahead and help nuder the lead IB. Still could be a situation in flux. The relay into the denser more materialized sounding grid really only begins tonight at 00z... So, it may be a slow day in here... Then, tonight's run show no improvement (of course...) which means the previous solutions may have been 'over' assimilated - something caused that very coherent trend, and something is causing it to leave. The EPS at Tropical TB (as I am sure everyone has seen) actually looks less favorable for winter enthusiasm over the conus. Now, that product leaves everything to be desired at the scope/scale of the hemisphere ... But as far as D10/end of run, it was pretty squarely out of phase with GEFs and GEPs over Buffalo. Now...that's not saying anything for the 11+ range up over the Alaskan sector...understood. The AO prog at CPC is still increasingly converged among the different ensemble curves...as well, ~ -1 SD entering the second week. Meanwhile, the MJO is still showing some strengthening tendencies in Phase 8 ... so despite (also) the operational runs looking a little less impressive in PNAP in general beyond Tue ... that may be growing pains. I don't see where the forcing can really come from to throw the models off.. .but the D8-10 Euro looks more like "losing" a sense of direction in the general cinema, rather than actually returning to what we have now. So... annoying overnight but not lost to enthusiasts would be my call for now.

Missing from the D10 deal is the inject of n/stream ... Not to be greedy. Anyway, immediately the focus is on the D10 thing with all this caution stuff we all should already be well aware .. It's pretty clear those saying that are coaching/counciling themselves out of their own anguish... Defensive posturing as we will... The pattern does support amplitude in that time range for a compendium of reasons we've already outline, and ... taken FWIW, the Tuesday event (or non event) is on the table and should be the focus first.

PF where is NNE to-date snow totals ?

Yeah salient advice... It's both dicey actually, obviously more so on the latter. But the Tuesday thing... that western ridge bulging suddenly east toward lower Manatoba looks dubious... If that feature were to correct back just a bit west... than that pattern slowing down starts sooner and the Tuesday event shapes up.

Not likely ...considering that solution rain bombs 'im ... actually, we'd now be getting ready for a steady diet of why that's going to happen just like that, but colder ...citing a multifarious assortment of physical causes borrowed from that brand new never heard of before branch of theoretical atmospheric physics. Just kidding James -

...sort of ... The MJO doesn't cause a storm? ... I mean, not that you are saying so, but, this sort of dead panned reply to a specific storm potential sounds like it anyway, as discussed amply ... the MJO is an augmenter. It can contribute and help bolster a pattern where/when storms would be conducive... but that's no where close to doing it on its own.

Ha! just go with John. Typhoon Tip is a big storm of historic significance. I can think of worse social media aliases if it's any help. Although ...I have been called "tampon tip" before by those that hate me for whatever reason they can conjure that sates their will to do so... Which I actually give a lot of credit to for styling? Sometimes Sophomoric shenanigans can impulse a chortle. I mean, we used to call this poor coke-bottle spectacled girl "Hubble" in high school... I can just imagine some hapless Vietnamese kids named Tip being called tampon... Heh, kids. Um yeah I do ...remember those statements. I don't recall whether that was in an ongoing conversation, or if it was in one of those morning arm-chair quarter backing weather diatribes that I compose because I am actually attempting to physical cause discomfort in the heads of my readers... Just kidding, I think Will and I were discussing that possibility. That it may hold out and then collapse toward the new paradigm. It could be that? sure... We need more time. I'd like to see some consistency,...as well as multi- sourced agreement. I don't get to see the EPS ... what happened with that last night?

Yeah...ha... watch us get plenty stormy alright - wah wah waaah.

Wow ... dude!!!!!!! hey I spoke about that ... the parafubar model of the GFS was tantalizing close to a subsume/1978 deal but just missed the players by two seconds in the revolving door. This is really... amazing as a trend and YES... the flow sort of organically relaxed in the S, allows the western heights --> downstream trough carving to get down there... It's soooo awesome to feel this vindication in the models - I've been trying to explain this for years but my own articulation is anyway, that's going to extrapolate favorably there

Ding ding... Perhaps the ridge and the gradient are one in the same... but, that velocity saturation in the rest wind between S/W is like snake venom in the punch bowl man

I'm actually surprised the Euro came this far in this particular run cycle... I mean some, sure... But 120 to 132 hours E of Chicago longitude is tantamount to not yet in the Euro's wheelhouse... One thing I've noticed about the Euro is that it's stubborn in the latter middle range and if it changes it usually waits until 108 hours. This ...sort of beats that ...maybe the emerging signal is louder in the background numerical physics... possible - sure. I wonder if tonight's run ...well, 1 am ... rolls in more ominous. Then, we deal with two days of back off... melt-downs... bi-polar swings on every run ...before they all come back on Monday with a blizzard. kidding of course.

To simplify ... it comes down to more cohesion with the later mechanics, amplifying a long a narrower corridor of latitude.

And ...granted, I'm a maverick as you know over the years, and I put it all out there and don't really give a ratz ass where the chips fall... I'm not casting any illusions over what it ultimately means to be a contributing member of this social media haha. As such... I don't have problem with it. I don't have any compunctions about discussing where things "could go" based upon possible corrections - if the corrections can't happen, I won't bring them up ...personally, I think that is a skill sorely need by more in operational but that's 'sides the point. What's catching your eye may not even be finished... I think the Euro may even need a day but ...the 12z solution may be interesting anyway. The broadly ill-scoped surface low pressure of the 00z run struck me as a person leaving the canvas unfinished because they got a late memo on where the paint should be applied -

Not to toot my own horn but ... yeah, it seems to be tapping into that idea where the last four cycles of the GFS is presently trending ... I don't think the original interest for the time frame is really where the focus should be at this point... Yeah, there'll be an IB associated with that waa...but that's also attenuating, possibly in lieu of this latter amplitude. There's time... situation's in flux -

Yup... next to go is the communications infrastructure appropriations funding ... which means, restricting all internet traffic to only critical health, safety, and economics data - which unfortunately means that all social media platforms, while still operational, will be islands in a disconnected sea of domain spaces. That's code for no more hours of devotion to this and forcing everyone to engage in something similar to a life -

Boy ...there's really time to evolve that into something more... I almost suggest if the modeling stops focusing on the lead impulse and the IB burst thing as sweeper, and starts putting more emphasis on that/those trailing mechanics ... that region from the MA/NE should watch that. At 120 hours (...yeah, like "day five" hello -) there is tendency to quasi close the 500 mb surface over NE ...central new England axis point... It sort of slowly melon balls it's way down another 15 or so DM over the ensuing 12 to 18 hours, while an impressive momentum fluxes into the southwest part of the trough. It's 120 kts at 500 mb in the negative slope of the total L/W space!! That's hard to do... There's a lot there feeding into the bottom of that trough and at 120+ hours, there's time to modulate that toward some form of more purer N/stream and/or NJ model ordeal.

yeah and NWS is allover it ... " Sunday... Blustery NW winds behind a departing storm system, there is the threat of gusts exceeding 45 mph requiring wind related headlines."

I'm sure this will be met with a resounding 86 appeal... and perhaps justifiably so... but it's comical how different the 84 hour NAM is wrt to the eastern Ontario/western Quebec high pressure compared to the other global models. Heh... I think in a twist ... the operationAl Euro agreeing with the GFS re that pressure pattern layout on the giggedy side of the Euro's wheel-house that would have to be a neat trick by the NAM.

There's a bit a high wind signal in the synoptic evolution of the pressure pattern changes over Sunday's daylight hours. We see a curved flow extending west from the escaping coastal system, which sort of retards some momentum at first, but ...nearing 18z, ...that bulge/lag goes away ...replaced by a compressed pressure gradient as illustrated. Dam burst ... That combined with CAA destablization and diurnal heating also adding a vertical component ...the "momentum mixing" thing enhances that further. Almost like a smear isollabaric acceleration... albeit ill-defined but there could be some mighty turbine roars going over the tree canopies around 2 to 3pm Sunday. I wonder what the wind products at NWS look like -