Typhoon Tip

It can be more extreme ... I mean we all know this that are weather dorks, but in the Plains you can get some rather uniquely physically stressing soundings, with 19 F within 2,000 foot of the ground, and 44 F melting above the BL, where there is yet overrunning convective elements in the sub-mid levels producing lightning and thunder fall rates. It does happen ...rarely. I've not seen it first hand, but have seen live video of orange flash, thunder boom, and raining hard enough that the air appeared foggy at relatively short distances with a temperature of 19 F. Heavy or not, you're efficient - just a matter of whether that efficiency and rate of phase change competes with fall rate... Obviously, it's never 1::1 - it can't be... hydrometeoroids splash on contact too..

Speaking of making a call and not mentioning ... The NAM's tripling Logan's QPF in the FOUS grid comparing the 06z is classic behavior in short terms whenever you see PHL/LGA on that product with bigger numbers. Not always... I'm sure the famed PD storms of last century that move bombs due east of the mid Atlantic, and cirrus milked the Boston skies didn't do that, no. But, balancing in the synoptic evolution ..prior -6z run did not make sense having PHL/LGA be nearly an inch of QPF while Logan was paltry, because the trajectory of the former was an ascent in latitude. Whenever I see that, I count on the 24 hour lead to go robust - ..here we are, boom. .75 in snow with IP contam

I was up at UML in 1990s. We had forecast games - and folks cared! There was a national one, and many university students and faculty engaged in it. I'm not sure how it was maintained and networked. It was yet quite early in the Internet era but ... I think it was still done via nonetheless. The local in-Lab game was fun and probably even a bit too stressful for our own goods, considering the curriculum of more science-based Met programs and all those rigorous course works. Lord knows, that was enough (thank god for grading exams on bell-curves!). Still...the diversion had it's need. Do you know that our Senior year required deriving the Navier-Stokes equation, long hand, before allowing our escape with a degree? Start with a baser thermodynamic and a baser fluid mechanics equation, and by the time they are fully integrated... one line becomes almost 7 pages long. Which is why I formulated a mortgage-paying career in software engineering, and only hobby weather, instead ...And also science-fiction writing, ...etc. But point being, I realized along the way that actually working under a heading of Meteorologist is just a label. You still 'know' how it works, and know how to forecast for having your experiences... Labels don't change who you are - the rest is just a form of immaturity and requiring the adulation of others ... if not some petty celebrity for a moment. Once one really connects with what all that means ...they can read the charts, figure for a bomb in 18 days, nail it... and no one ever knows they made that insight, because they didn't care to mention it. Their truth gone forever. And they could not be more okay with that, as there really is no loss in the first place. 'Sides... life really doesn't matter - oh, there are certainly things that matter to you, of course. Once you get to middle age, an awareness gets harder to deny. Accolades seem to fade beneath the universal shadow cast by the reality: everything in reality is merely a human construct - including one's opus'. All value systems and perceptions of self, or ego... even art, all of it. Meaningless. These are aspects that disappear...vanquished when the last point of light fades from awareness and the "soul" ( only for lack of better word) disperses to oblivion at the end. Not trying to be depressing here... "really" more like 'releasing' ... peace. Once one really and truly connects with how meaningless they are, it's very liberating - it's like being in a walking talking DMT zone. Not to be confused with caring for your wife, or your kids, your siblings and best friends... giving a shit about community, and not wanting wars. Because...that'd be weird of course. We can appreciate splendor. It's knowing that you are traversing a tapestry of reality - which is just another form of art.

Mm... but saying there's only 45 days of winter remaining on December 15 or 16 of any given year is so egregiously asinine it immediately molts all credibility of the person that makes the statement/sentiment. Personally, I don't care about the troll tactic - I don't actually take very much of who said what and why in here very seriously, and tend to ignore most of it because of it's intrinsically vapidity, and transparent cackling of the hoi polloi. However, it looks odd for you personally, Wiz', to defend that person - at all - when you're posts are nut-to-butt right up against one another. Just sayn' ... now you must know how defenders of Trump must feel. That sort of 'embarrassing timing' has been a regular folly of his Presidential tragic comedy.

Reputations die hard

09 and 2010? two years in row neared 40 in interior SNE somewhere around them

suppose the GFS is more right about the general synoptic evolution here... could it just be too jacked with QPF?

Did anyone else notice the Euro's weird little fella out there in that D7/8 coastal cyclone ? ...Like a convective feedback micro-cane

Nah...that's complete continuity -related bullshit on that GFS obviously... but go for it !

Lol, I know ... baffling to the scientific community why that is, as the variables in the geo-physical equations that govern all events and outcomes of the atmosphere remain utterly elusive -

Kidding aside... I'm only joking like that because I have noticed a tendency to be "dealt reverses" ...almost like with uncanny timing in doing so too... weird. Just when consensi is achieve - up ending has not exactly been at a premium... a verification phenomenon that has been more common spanning really a year at this point. Not sure if its an interpretation thing, or the models really demonstrating enhanced variability... probably some of both. I remember the year after 1995-1996, expectations for modeling performance was culturally threw the roof. That winter the models were routinely nailing ... D10 storms with aplomb and polish. I mean it was ridiculous ... Then, after the thaw, the pattern reloads and the models were even better... That's never happened since. Years passing ...never a season with such success. Some very good, sure. Maybe the last 18 months is just not a good time for tech - I've seen more teleconnector modality breakdowns than normal too. Interesting.

Or wouldn't it be funny if the Euro held serve... was tossed, but nailed it ... such that everything else turns out wrong. Muah hahahaha It'd be like, "Perfect! my plan to yo-yo hopes and dreams only to cause people pain and anguish while only thinking they are getting to their hopes and dreams, is complete"

LOL tru

Than that means the Euro was wrong ...if it does... and, wrong inside of day-4, too. Don't forget that ... oh, y'all will, and recede back to NAM and GFS popularity bashing LOL Anyway, Lord of The Flies model evaluation kidding aside ... it is interesting if these blended NAM/GFS are closer to verifying than any Euro inside of day 4.

It's interesting as an aside ... the GFS members have been theming that 22nd period of time for over a week's worth of cycles, in various complexions among the members along the way. Not consistent at the detail level, no but give 'em a break. It's 300+ hours out. Plus, the fact that 2/3rds * thus the majority* carry the trough appeal on pretty much every run ( in the mean), I think they've earned the right to vary their individual solutions within a common theme. One thing that sticks out for me is the Hadley Cell is beaten down ... perhaps only temporarily, but that's a big factor in getting to and ( eventual ) phased solution, ...should more phasing be in the cards. Otherwise, we're prooobably not going get this one done with N/Stream alone given the progressive nature of the flow between the 45th and 65th latitudes around our side of the hemisphere ( that's A ) ...but the other aspect is that the NAO - I believe - isn't "really" negative in that time frame? I'm starting to strongly suspect it's just weighted down by a much more obvious negative Arctic Oscillation overlapping - have to remember that the AO and the NAO share domain space, and thus, can skew the other's true static characteristic. Nooormally they run along similar out in time, but just not always. Anyway, that doesn't mean that an intermediate midriff Canadian S/W can't time an ally-'oop with the TV and do the subsuming thing. The trick is, the heights in the deep S/SE need to relax for the TV S/W's identity to remain in tact. Otherwise, ..the fast flow that results from the compression will absorb the S/Stream short wave and that's bad. The other option is that the flow indeed relaxes in the S, and the N/Stream just gets out of the way entirely...and the S/Stream wave just turns into a Miller A deal... Few plausibilities on the table...

Nice ... Euro squares off against the NAM GFS is in NAM's corner more so than not. I mean ...I just accept the run-to-run vicissitudes of the NAM as built in, and once accounting for those as a given aspect ...it's performing remarkably consistent within that framework - haha. But, the Euro being pancakes with no butter and syrup mashed comparing to either of those former two solutions ( or their blend) is an interesting quandary now passing into the outer edge of shorter range. I suspect this 12z ( in particular ) may see either camp adjust - could also be they are all wrong and reality finds a verification straight compromised in between. Have to remember ..these are fact"similes," not fact"exactitude" of the atmosphere. It is then up to the analytics and experience of the forecaster to pick and choose, and, ..pick and choose particular aspects too. That's another thing. One can pick overall storm morphology from one tool ... and reserve the right to pick the ptype layout from the other ( for example), even though the other could be quite obviously wrong about the storm morphology. That's a whole 'nother flavor of headache that comes along with this business. That all said...this system is almost sub-pedestrian looking. Unlikely to go much beyond - maybe it'll amp up in these closing cycles ...or go away entirely. I almost hope that happens just for the Schadenfreude of it. Come to think about it.. .it's a been quite awhile since we've suffered the ignominy of a true whiff - talkin' wipe the board sunny skies whiff. It may not be possible for that scale-and degree of f-up by the models this day age, so maybe if judging the modern day tech and carrying conceit about where we are with things should go by the lowest common denominator for success? That's really what the state of the art is: just slightly above the sunny whiff. Kidding there ... a little.

Defensive dismissal

I saw that too, Nick... and was also wondering, 'why stop there' Still talking enough time for that to keep digging - that's be almost understandable given how things have been working out - heh.

Scott's right ...the CONUS is mild to at times warm both in trends since October ( really ) and in the models, depending on model type and cycle ... amplitude therein. Except ...here. The problem with that... not dependable, and probably... sustainability is in question. You C.H. the flow some how and the whole thing flops warm really quick. Just look at that warm rainers we're getting in a month that's -3 to -5 at all climo sites, while also boasting some 150% of Dec snow norms when it's just the ides of the month - it's like, how could it be raining in with those two empirical metrics!! Yet here we are... It's because it's all "fragile" and not really based on a N/A pattern that is dependable. Thus... IFFY deal with it. Frankly, we need a bona fide -EPO with at least time-staggered +PNA pulses to sustain cold on a big enough scale that there is fiddling/wobble room. We had that ... for 10 days, and got a big event out of it... couched in a cold pattern. The evidence is there... the pattern changed we've been scraping by as winter enthusiasts ever since ...

That modest but important +PP N of Maine is the whole thing... I'm not seeing any warm intrusion making much N of the southern sections when we see that - it really never happens. Particularly when we have some cryospheric feedbacks up that way by then. Folks should realize, this thing is a blizzard for much of eastern Ontario and then we have that fresh high cresting around western Maine and White Mountains two days later... I think we're seeing a pretty strong CAD expression nosing down from that set up and if the Euro frontal tapestry plays out during that sort of correction we probably have an snow-ice-snow evolution - Not major - but light to middling

Come to think about it... that'd be a funny awesome SNL car commercial.. The Fujiwara ...and have it just like spinning out of control down a highway -

Ha haaa

and it's more pervasive than that, too.. all of Massivetwoshits north of the Pike is 33 to 35 with DPs < 32 this hour, and enough home stations with NW and N wind to suggest at least an interval of drain is underway. Saturate this llv and I suspect we're 31.8 icing -

Yeah...we seem to be draining here .... Temp settled back to 33 and the dp is back under 30. Given the wind is already ageo ... probably a good idea they've got wwa up - it only takes .01 of glaze to fuji wara a vehicle down a highway..

Yee haw! nothin' like frozen Earth over-topping along rivers