Typhoon Tip

That's a pretty potent wind signal in the Thursday overnight into Fri morning ...

lol echoing my frustration

heh...I typed freeport but i actually had bangor-ish in mind... but yeah it's all probably a tick or two lat/lon too soon by those other guys. who knows.

GGEM doubled down on the Freeport Maine blizzard of April 2020

I'm willing to argue that these phases are concomitantly being suppressed this last winter by the HC expansion that is getting more pervasive with every passing season of accelerating climate change. As the seasonal height compression is relaxing, it's merely exposing opportunity for these flow structures to emerge. I actually personally anticipated this a month ago and posted that we'd head into a blocky spring - It's causing unusually fast, balanced tropospheric mid and upper level winds and propagating wave space speeds there in, and it's not allowing those meridional resonances to get feed-back established such flow structures such that they can persist for any length of time - they just get blasted and ablated away. The MJO at times this recent winter was incoherent, yet the pattern et al resembled a historically powerful phase 5 MJO much of the time for a reason ...separate from the MJO ( as logic therein dictates...); it's most like the cold normal hemisphere of winter in excessive compression against the expansion of the HC, which is garnering lots of scientific attention and is papered at this point.

34" total here... pretty sure that's 3/5ths of normal (~)... That's going by snow alone

The operational versions of every model are holding out on cold to the bitter end. The GFS is particularly atrociously either negligent of the seasonal forcing of oh ... a trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion ton perpetual fusion bomb eye-balling the hemisphere, or, it's going to succeed in a once in a 500 year cold pattern on top of a back-ground uncompensated GW signal... Hmm, which way should we go - I'm inclined to think that the it's just negligently constructed around solar fluxing. It does this at this time of year, every f year... It starts out D2 through 5 with some semblance of in situ pattern awareness ( though mishandles it for other reasons..), then, slides right back into January. Go back the last 100 cycles of this model and look at any D10 ... it's more like a mild pattern in January at best, otherwise, just absurd. The GGEM and Euro, however, are also cold relative to the CPC teleconnectors, too. That said, obviously these models don't give a ratz azz what the GEFs curves do; they are not part of the GFS' family genetics. I don't know what the Euro or GGEM fields look like based upon their own ensembles ... but the EPS general appeals tend to rarely stray very far from the operational at the scales of pattern management, so.. they probably kill summer and never snow too I think the operational GFS is useless most late Marches into first halves of Aprils, more so than the usual head-scratching as to why that useless p.o.s. shit model is given its portion of carbon footprint to run at any time of the year beyond D4. Going back several years, I distinctly recall it over and over and over, flooding lower Canada with mid January thickness in it's D7 to 12 ranges as a plaguing model bias during most springs.

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

Exactly like I said ... coming in gradually less amplified and/or up the St L. Seaway just like exactly no other system portrayed in the Euro has ever failed to do in 30 months... Thanks for playing along with the lost con-game of the year. All this trough does? ... spring arresting cold ...nothing else. heh, it's like the models have been churning run out of the Pandemic's basement -

Nah it’s most likely that Euro runs over doing that amplitude just like it’s never not done re anything in that time range for the past 30 months

I’m jealous. There’s nothing else going on in this godforsaken shitty mess of a world we live in and the weather can’t be any worse than rain at 37 fn deg it’s got me run down and wishing I could just see a snowstorm in April. I’m not gonna lie ... if it’s a big event any April I’ll take it to the bank. But at this point snow might be interesting diversion

because 1070 mb highs happen all the time

Does look like Sandy in an homage - Those individual members are 'perturbed' which just means they have variant physical equations ...but that means the convective processes are handled slight different, creating different system-internal thermal handling ... This was evidenced as warm secluded already, so it meandering over a tepid SST G-string out there ...it may be taking on 'faux' profiles due to version-based thermal surplus... If/when it did take on 'real' ST characteristics probably requires analysis after the fact.

Looks like the 12z NAM is cooling the 800 mb to SFC thermal profile in the last 18 hours of this retrograde event enough to offer 'chutes/paws for the Worcester Co and probably Middlesex ...west of I-95.. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 BOS 36013955313 -2208 120428 45040000 ... Those "00" are 0C at 800 and 900 mb from right to left... Cold rain at Logan, wet sn inland? 42013966315 -1210 160325 44030000 48010944320 -1613 190320 44020197 54002923624 -0912 200415 44029998

This thing tomorrow night ... I thought it just a 'spoke' of vorticity orbiting around a west Atlantic/-NAO spring cut-off climo, but it's more than that. This is a 'hook and latter' Nor'easter. The low is retrograding west and places the region inside its envelope - this isn't a mere spoke rotating around.

GFS has done this every years since about 2005 ... It fails to negotiate its way out of winter into seasonal change. Way back whence ... circa 1993, I remember there used to be winter algorithms and summer algorithms in the models - then it was the 'MRF'. I'm pretty sure.. I thought over the evolution that was no longer the case...but, the GFS did this last year and year before, and the year before that ...etc.., where it gets beyond day 10 and the whole fields goes back to Jan 15 at this time of year. Interesting -

Saturday then opens up spectacular ...could be a first top 10er day of the year. 850's +2 C SE of a Rut-Con line... with PGF focusing a subtle d-slope look, and RH flooring/open sky .. it could snow Friday morning at least in the air, and have that be 66 F the next afternoon in that look... I don't actually care as much suffering April shitz weather if it's going to modulate mercy the next day like that - fine!

wow, this 12z Euro run is very darn near close to an isothermal Friday morning ...about +.25 C at 850 with that low retrograding to near the BM... interesting -

Classic gaining sun-angle mid spring scenario where the MOS may nail it but the backyards bust 1 to 3 clicks warmer... Love these faux-warm afternoons for the alternative they offer comparing the drab misery of yesterday's ilk. So it's 50 here at multiple home stations within a mile or two of mi casa. And the wind is negligible ...so when you find a 'sun nook' it's really a stolen gem compared to what the overall week's appeal looked like at any modeling point before this day for this time period.

Ohgh....no comparison! Compared to yesterday and the day before? my god - I'll take 47 and full sun post the Equinox over that layering between rectal-plaque and Satan's colon walls weather we were given yesterday. That was our world-ending salvation...

Wouldn't shock me if locales like Blue Hill observatory ...or up along the slopes of the eastern ORH hills recoup a few hours of cat paws or even some mangled 'chutes during the first 6 or so hours of that (50-56 hours) in a NAM thermal handling. Actually all models indicate that interval as warm advection from the NE ... a bit counter-intuitive but that is actually not that atypical for a deeply core-wrapped west Atlantic cyclones that are pinned under a west based -NAO ridge in the spring. This used to happen more frequently in the 1990s. So we get some pingers and white globule rain drops for a while, and then it's cold mist and light rain horror show for another 12 hours after that, and then we're done as the whole structure rotates SE and away... And notice the 500 mb thickness tapestry matures some 6 to 10 dm prior to after that spoke pivots through? That's a warm front/symbolically Saturday could be a fantastic day and probably starts the transition into an extended period of probably the best 850 mb thermal layout of the spring so far..though obviously nuances/sensible surface weather to be determined. The Euro looked like it was attempting to paint a couple gems 7, ...10

agreed! very much echoed this a couple weeks ago when it was obviously destined that way

which is inversely proportionate to stating, ' we will always understand Kevin's illogic'

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based... That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease. The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there. But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S. It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script. We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs. Kind of reminiscent there. Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals. Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it. Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres. So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start.