Typhoon Tip

You think that's long - you're an example of what it means.

The last couple of runs of the NAM look rather icy to me in the low levels. This is a rare set up...getting a coastal low to spit possible glazing into the tree canopies and car tops. Others brought this up, but it really makes you wonder about the 1926 ( 29?) coastal storm that was pretty much a thrashing Nor'easter of ZR.. It was no joke ZR, too... Not this 31.8 F lose half to to drippy gelling rates... And, the rain was perfectly ratio'ed in fall rates relative to refreezing, such that - guessing from anecdotal accounts - 90+% efficiency accretion took place spanning like two and half days. 28 F light to moderate ZR like always ... Man... I loathe ice-storms. I really don't envy any location suffering their wrath. I don't find them strangely amusing or "fun" when they clip the power. I find them to be a pain in the ass and strangely "un"amusing and unfun. To each his own... BUT, in the spirit of my own humanity and thus, hypocrisy, something like that might just be absurd enough to make one wonder what that looks like as a first hand account. This thing doesn't have any chance of being like that... no. But, it does show that even though icing in coastal storms tends to be narrower/limited to bands along transition zones, there are some circumstances where this differs.

Not to derail/digress too deeply ...we should keep this brief, but - it's not a knock on anyone in here. It's a phenomenon endemic to increasingly psychotropic societies, and the advent of all these hyper-stimulating com technologies - we're literally living through an evolutionary experiment by subsuming societies ( above tribal bucket and lever ilks ) with these stimulation. You get this in any social-media platform. Think about rats in a maze. Lab techs poke and prod and do shit to them, then take notes on clipboards. Haha. It's a metaphor. Anyway, at no point spanning human history ...talking pre and post paleolithic right up through the advent of fire and wheels ... did Humans evolve through what they are since the Industrial Revolution. Down around Va Beach, there's a radio station ... hilarious, but every Tuesday at 3 pm, they have a three hour rush-hour program called, "Facebook Fights" - oh man... deliciously tedious and hysterically petty. It's pretty fantastic anthropology ... but, again, it's more suited to OT.

I think it's a curiosity and point of interest that there is a "pendulum" at all ... Does this shit like ...fill some void for people? And suppose that is true, is it a numbers game, where millions of people having access so it's like we're "filtering" over the crucible of time and burning away all other users ...leaving this purified group of people that have the same void and so merely can related to one another ? Probably, in some - at least - partial sense that is true. Buut that kind of insight - for some reason - incenses and gets people pissy so... whatever.

Well... ur not far off. I've been discussing this at length in various threads around the weather -related social media, that the Hadley Cell ( semi permanent global feature the girdles the globe to approximately 30 N and S of Equator in previous decades prior to 2000 ) has been notably and empirically expanding, and is causing storm tracks to shit N ( among other aspects ..) This is papered and peer reviewed assessment work - it's not just me conjecturing from a relative position of weather education and speculation arts - which admittedly, I'm talented in that capacity. Hahaha. Seriously, part of the Hadely Cell expansion is that it's boundary with the mid latitudes is not readily identifiable.. as in, aligning along some particular isohypses. It's determined fluid mechanically and thermodynamic from location to location. One possible clue is that the flow inside the Hadley tends to take on more easterly component. But overall, the boundaries are blurred and are nebulous... It's one of those deals where one would have difficulty making determination from within, but looking at the hemisphere as a whole lends more insights. It's causing gradient and middle tropospheric winds to be anomalously sloped and fast, respectively of those two metrics. It's causing embedded event morphologies.. such as shearing and cyclonic translation speeds. Unclear whether those effect precipitation totals ( and none of that pertains specifically to ptype in winters in case, either ). Knowing what all that means... the "warm blobs" in the Pacific are - quite intuitively - a partial result of HC expansion into the lower middle latitudes, as this would impose greater moments of lowering SS stressing and "pooling" would be seem concomitant. In fairness, that's intuitive - I have a raft of papers/links .. it may be stated in one of those. It also may be evidentiary in how/why ENSO's forcing on the atmosphere is becoming less coherent, year to year. Last winter ... NCEP noted that it took almost until mid February before the atmosphere demonstrated that it was really coupled(ing) up with the ENSO and actually reflecting that the ENSO was influencing. That's pretty much spring beneath the 35th parallel for the N.H already. This left very little time for ENSO to mean much to more mid latitude winter, and it probably ultimately didn't. ( yet, folks are cobbling together all these expectations of modestly warm ENSO now mmm good luck, we'll see). Going back further, the historically warm EL Nino from several years back, was also notably less demonstratively impacting known focus regions around the World,... relative to what previous moderate to strong warm ENSO events appeared causally link-able in priors. ...etc...

I've mentioned this several times ... since last spring actually, how we've been dealing with odd ( at times eerie ) tendency for the models to establish hardened trends .. even seemingly footed in global indicators thus offering credence, only to be dealt reverses, with frustrating frequency. Personally I think it's a model artifact of Global Warming; the changing circulation perhaps exposes that these models have 'performance norms' that break down in different eddy circumstances previously unknown, because these broader scaled scaffolds were stable comparing previous decades and now they are in flux. But that's of course speculative... Point is, we are still dealing with that in my estimation. I keep seeing this happening, more so than I remember in the 1990 to 2005-10 era, where model "pattern error" ( sort of a different metric to event level detail ) might be increasing. Again speculative... The Euro EPS flip flopping like that smacks of this though.

Keep in mind ... PDO means Pacific "Decade" Oscillation. These vicissitudes in the SST layouts will come and go, usually per local time scaled sea-surface stressing events. But they are as that suggest, ephemeral. They offer the jagged ups and down along the longer time-scaled curves, the typical behavior of any of these statistical inference efforts in nature. By conceptual understanding of what that means, there can be transient spans that may not represent the actual PDO. Right now the longer, 'weightier' curve shows that the index has been positive since the year 2015 or so, as I'm sure someone's pointed out .. Some of the months spanning 2018.. mm, the index is not exactly overbearingly positive, with many monthly values within mere decimals of 0, with a couple of blips in there where the index fell minutely negative ( < 0 ). I'm having difficulty finding the exact numbers for 2019 ( to date ), but multiple sources match one another and indicate the curve is sloping presently toward neutral ( 0 ), whether it is actually there yet. In any case, PDO correlation against present and -though-to-be correlated patterns, would need to be tested at relative PDO strengths. In most scientific statistics, by definition, when a curve approaches 0, that usually infer "N/S" ( no skill ) which mean equal probabilities.

Not that anyone does or should care at this particular moment… But the new Nam tries to whiff the whole area except for Maine

It ultimately doesn’t matter of course… It’s just highly unusual for somebody that young - frustrating and boundlessly sad

Yes I recall meeting him at one. do we know what took his life? it’s always arresting when mortality rings the forum’s doorbell

Uh, "yes even" You'd be a sociopath if you altered peoples genetic construct without complete transparency and mutual concurrence ... I mean, this is silly at this point.

I wouldn't trust those products from the GFS model... Certainly highly suspect, as it has genetic linear for having bad planetary boundary layer ( lowest level ) thermal handling in multiple types of air masses. Plus, it's grid isn't really the best resolution for picking up low level cold layers on top of the former issues with confidence; neither lends to trusting it.

Holy hell ... there's some ...shall we say, eccentric contributions over in that climate forum.

Wow ...so ur kinda sorta out there, huh Not me... no one f's with my DNA thank you. I think you'll find that is the consistent position among most human beings whom are proposition with the idea of having their innate sense of wonder chromosomely castrated. Yeeeah just sayn'

The problem with this discussion for me ( considering you both care and asked for what I think.. heh ) is that you're all wrong... Every one of yaz - It's not +PNA this or -NAO that ... or +EPO this or that... Those are scalar values that don't mean shit. ( I know y'all know this but it doesn't hurt to remind - ) It's the modulation of those indexes that matters, because when they are in modality ...that means there is mass changing in domain spaces = correction and restoring. That's your event(s). This is how it works, at all scales and dimensions. We just use +PNA and NAO and AO because they are planetary in scale/dimension so they are more identifiable/forcing as far as necessity for said correction/restoring event(s). Truth be told, you could teleconnect cool air over a sun-warming ( mode change at the surface) bubble as likely to cause a cumulus cloud and nail the prediction based off that micro teleconnector. By the way ... -EPO is bad for us on its own. There needs to be that lag correlation with the negative phase states of the EPO ...where the block collapses ( usually within a 3 to 5 day period), and as it does it descends in latitude and relays into a +PNAP orientation with western N/A ridge and concomitant eastern trough evolution - again...that sets into motion a restoration event and usually given the -EPO relay into + PNAP it's going to be a cold oriented system. -EPOs that don't relay don't do as much for us because the natural R-wave count/spatial layout usually rolls up ridging along the eastern Seaboard. But... through it all, guess what is consistent? The NON-consistency of the modes ... That is a description above of a changing hemispheric quadrature. Static indices in general are not good. Once a +PNA is in place and non modulating... well, just look at the 12z Euro. It has a shallow amplitude +PNA that is unchanging and so the D4 looks like it was mapped on D10 ... BOOOORRRRRINNNnnng

What part of the snow expectations in SNE require your image be interpreted as a failure in the first place ? good luck their zippy lol No, you got ur facts turned around. That's an epic success. J/k, I get the troll effort -

I don't believe that assumption logically follows ... ( bold ) If one employs technologies that do not profligate resource consumption, than there's no problem - that's just math. The paradox you mentioned is an economics theorem; not sure I see the logic of why that means we should not supplant fossil fuels with green/renewable energy sourcing, when the latter drops the "exhaust" of humanity below the thresholds that adversely affects/effects the vitality and eventual gestalt of the total environment. The theorem defaults to non-detrimental. That's what this is all about - can the background absorb without forcing - The complete "commune" vision of Humanity has zero plausibility and/or logistically managed reality to it. There's too much power for ingenuity and wonder for advancing discovery as part of our evolutionary gift to withstand these motivations, which requires capacity that far exceeds the bucket and lever society paradigm. What I'm saying is... tech is part of our evolution as the true tool manipulator species - you can't remove that any more than you can ask someone to ... remove a hand or a foot. You can't do it. The solution is harmony - it's just that right now... we generate more din and discord, when we gear resource acquisition straight into the machinery greed-based economics. That much I agree with in principle/over-tones to some of what you imply.

See .... ? Snow88 and Greg love each other -

Really ? I didn't see that - I counted 4.5 S/W's all doing the same damn thing. Skipping off the southern heights like rocks off a pond ... skirting through the Maritimes as smeared out wind shifts for us.

Yet...this air mass rolls right on out and we bobble-headingly saucer eye at how despite it's present cold magnitude it could so blithely and wrongly become 32.5 upon the ensuing rain and wind ... Nice -ooh rah for the cold

He asked me as well... Did you help the guy ?

Yeah, preaching to the choir for me ... I don't think this winter is going to be very dictated/forced by ENSO ... I think the multi-decadal polarward index, which is in descent and I believe flipped negative, probably is more evidenced at more times than not, as being weighty in influence/proxy on the flow constructs. More N/stream ..buuuuuuut, there's that expanded HC stuff that is presently papered/scienced and gathering recognition to contend with. Namely, that GW shit ain't going away, and the expanded tropical/sub-tropical belt into the lower Ferrel Cell latitudes, and the concomitant speeding up the flow/gradient saturation stuff... We'll just have to cross those bridges as the they come. I'm not sure what the means to be honest. I don't think it means "no" or even lower snow... I suspect - intuitively - it more effects the style of delivery. Maybe fast events ...shearing and WAA events.. "nickle and dime" accounting... Icers? ...things of that nature, but perhaps doing okay in the aggregate. Bombs are still possible but the days of cutting them off and Fuki Wara S of ISP may be absent. .... OR, yup - we have to be open to the possibility that the flow speed/gradient might mitigate, too. A matter of amounts in that case. Anyway, the cold early Novie and the statistical relationship you bring up, strikes me as consistent with those years that had more -EPO (NAO) type tendencies.

Oh that. I forgot. Right. No. I didn't get involved in anything he was working on - you mean James from Cape Cod? Nah, my thing began years ago... I put it down for along while. Few years actually. Then suffered a bout of " professional ostracizing, " ( heh ) and used the year off to really focus and finish it up. So it is what it is... But as far as James, I vaguely do recall now him asking me but nothing ever came of it.

Those numbers are harder to get to then their scalar values might immediately suggest, too ( I know you know that...just sayn' ) Makes me wonder how we could also not have any snow - hahaha. Man, that's beautiful - I mean, considering that November is a seasonally deep enough month that minus f'n 6 anything in temps should be kissed more kindly with the former.

Huh... not sure what you mean?