Typhoon Tip

It's not ideal. Elaborated enough. Didn't say it was bad.

Not ideal ..

does anyone know what the state of the stratosphere is ?

in any case... it's nice to see a different look at least. I do like the epo-ness of it... I just don't like the gradient in southern Canada. it's too extreme. so we'll see how things iron out in coming days.

So long as it doesn't end up gradient saturated... sure.

Maybe ...maybe not...metaphorically speaking of course. Thing is, there's so much exotic potential that you gotta scratch your head over whether the atmosphere can really pull off never exhausting it by continuously creating negative interference at all scales/dimensions like it's doing. That's really what that is.. Huge extremes of thermodynamic gradients and the embedded wave spaces won't allow anything to tap into it...

anyway, so it a bad run... In fact, I'm reasonably confident that 00z will show a whole-scale different look - maaaybe an exception that stays some semblance with the EPO ridge up there. Otherwise, ...I've never seen such a mess ... There's like NO pattern here. It's really pretty amazing to see the model attempt nebular spaghetti with such gradients. It's achieving this giant intensely undulatory mess yet... too compact to generate cyclones. It basically like igniting a gas chamber but keeping it capped so dense it won't explode. interesting..

Well there's that. But wait for what? I wasn't commenting on anything other than this run itself.. It's a shit run. K? nothing else was implied

Ha! ....riight... nah, just being realistic. That's not a good pattern for much. I suppose one could argue that getting cold loaded into and above the 40th parallel over N/A is better than not having that... But, the flow is too fast all fields... It's basically what I wrote about in the daily diatribe ... -EPO/-PNA ... It can be both good or bad... this version is bad. Sorry -

not impressed... That's a shit compressed cold hell ... You got what you wanted - congrats!

heh... five day's worth of runs... now two cycles total illustrating a pattern that correlates with indicators - okay

God I f'n hope so ...

This is probably the worst ever at verifying anything beyond D6 in the models. This is vastly beyond the usual uncertainty and failure to do so at those sort of time ranges. The worst I've witnessed in the 25 years I've been privy to weather technology... Not sure I'm seeing any reason why that should suddenly improve. In the meantime... I'm hoping the -30 C 850 MB plume over western Ontario at 216 hours comes squarely over the Great Lakes - just to see what happens.

who doesn't need a 69 ... that's a no-brainer

I know what ur sayn' .. but, just to be fair: ... some pattern changes seem and ultimately prove less incoherent/obscured by offsetting probabilities... It's the same phenomenon for predicting the super-synoptic scaled forcing as when in the operational sense, there are some D8 bombs, depending on the governing behavior of things, that are perhaps a little more dependable.

Yeah... the -EPO and not necessarily but likely concurrent -AO/-NAO ...all that up north and blocking nodes is "probably" related to stratospheric shenanigans over the last month. In some respect...we could almost surmise the SSW ...particularly it's down-welling, thus, ability to modulate from that source, as potentially "saving" winter. But, I also wholeheartedly agree that a -EPO/-PNA look may in its self be transitory. In fact, I happen to know that -EPO --> +PNA is the normal migration/loading vector for the mid latitudes, because first the ridge node blossoms ivo the Alaskan sector ...west, north...east biased as it may, then it collapses south in time usually absorbed into the PNA domain space and observable as a temporary upward modality ... sometimes even heralding a more permanent look. ...subesequent to all that, a big storm over Nashville Tennessee...etc etc... Blah blah the point being... the -EPO/-PNA may not be entirely stable... and some semblance of transitory nature is entirely acceptable if not expected.

Mm ..mixed emotions ... like, why add to a thread pushing 122 pages? Someone maybe should start a new one ... might need three of these bad boys to cover January this year, but those of us who work and steal time to peak and be involved can't really do so effectively with that much content. Or not... oh well ... it's kind of a pure social thing these days anyway so it is what it is I guess - Be that as it may... I'm both optimistic (for winter enthusiasts) and pessimistic for the modulating pattern out there mid range and beyond.. In one respect, I was displeased with the PNA flat lining ...which it has. It's barely over neutral and anti-correlating to the MJO ... right out to the end of week two at CPC. That in its self does not bother me - like I've hammered many times, the MJO doesn't make the pattern ... Based upon it's momentum it can enhance or detract from it, but the pattern foundation isn't created by MJO's.. The EPS may or may not agree with the GEFs PNA index created at CPC. But, because the operational Euro just refuses to really create a +PNAP look across the mid latitudes of N/A (the amplified variation of the Perennial North American Pattern), I tend wonder if an EPS-based PNA might also look rather tame right now. Either way, I strongly suggest whatever it is about the hemispheric maelstrom that is f'ing that up the operational model's +PNAP part of a +PNA ... it is the same physical causes for damping MJO forcing - just a confident hunch. SO, now that I've succeeded in giving anyone brave enough to have read this far a major popsicle headache ... my deed is done. Have a nice day! Heh, in simpler terms... I think the pattern change is coming but I don't believe we've gotten ...or are going to get it right. What construct that will take on? We've been sort of looking for some text-book signatures in the ensemble packages ...and at times, those show .. a little. But I'm starting to suspect we are not losing the hemispheric hostility toward right side WH diagram syncing and so forth, and perhaps we shouldn't really be looking there unless as focused. I'm wondering if we may be heading more toward a -EPO/-PNA split structure, with cold loading into 55 N and a parade of undercutting Pac S/W ... Now, should all that take place, ... it can either be optimistic or pessimistic. We run just about equal chances of suppression with N stream incursions...as we do phased scenarios. Neither tendency can be really predicted for now... But I'm (happy to be forced to change my mind if need be...) leaning away from this consternation leading to a full latitude integrated +PNA/+PNAP look where it's one big ridge wall from California to Alaska, and a -3 SD SPC wobbling around James Bay like in 2014-2015. 2014-2015 was an extreme scenario where the N stream became so dominant, that suppressed the flow so deeply in latitude that it left a weaker gradient amid a gelid domain from the Lakes to New England...such that low moisture very very high ratio snow events could take place in a ...sort of protected blue. But that's a digression... If we want big storms in a split flow, you don't want the N stream to situated from lower Manitoba to eastern Ontario...with 7 isotachs around the rim of the SPV

The ICON was not N ... It was more spread out and faster...giving that illusion. The 12z was more compact and deeper, and slower by almost two clicks. If anything the 12z passed 30 or so miles closer to Cape Cod at closest pass. One aspect that is different, however, is there's bit more N-stream trying to get involved over NE in this run of that particular model.

He's gonna come back and eat our lunch ... promoted to cheif douche at NSSL or something and post these elaborate discussions that are so elegant and humbling as to make Scott weep in self-loathing and doubt - ... He doesn't have time for that shit anymore.

What was the tenor in here like back in 2012 ? I really don't recall ... I wonder if I was even logged in that much that year. I'm pretty sure that year was worse than this... We couldn't even get frost at dawns for like 10 day spates where it crept to 50-55 F during afternoons .. a few times, in late Jan and February... I remember that specifically playing disk golf in 50 F weather with cargo shorts, dusty dry ground light winds and tepid warm mocking sun. You guys must 'ave been truly apoplectic -

Seein' as your new and all ... a primer: "we" ...as in the collective regulars, are thinking with very little objective Meteorological reasoning, because it is unwanted while angry, if even capable during an inconsolable time. Expect a steady diet of puerile one liner commiseration japes -

Meh... livin' in SNE has it's charms too - Living over here is a challenge every year to see how long the snow will last, or how severe the pattern will get. Believe me, if you lived 300 miles NW of the St Lawrence seaway out in the open wind scarped tundra of -10 F on a warm day Canada, you'd get sick of it too... If not? you live in the wrong place and complaining about it is tantamount to crazy: bangin' your head at the same complaint thinking you'll get a different result. ...and believe me...there's far too much of that to be comfortably associated at times.

I would venture a guess with confidence that the 00z run will look entirely different ... but much more so than the usual expectation pattern/feature drift in those D6-10 range days.

Notice how the flow is no longer relaxed... ? nice ...let's get some for more compression everywhere and moosh the N stream down like a geriatric elephant's ass