Typhoon Tip

mm..nah, doesn't look like that kind of deal - ha ... I said dream, not 'wet dream'

That Euro run was Kevin's dream ... That looks like 2 or 3" of snow followed by .42" accretion on the massif ...followed by a possible 1-3" burst as heights fall and secondary probably fires off

This would be fun solution if this rendition were closer to reality mid week ...

But like I said earlier... the models have been oscillating between cabin fever boring and then more storminess, every other runs as of late...

Still has zippo southern stream for the 22nd ... That's been this models ( Euro's ) achille's heel for that latter gig, and that the GFS has been maintaining a S/stream wave identity and the Euro never has seen it once. Fascinating -

Aw-oh ...that's nice. The Euro came back a bit more robust... Looks like this solution ( Tues->) offers start as snow, then ice/rain, ends as snow exit sort of scenario -

Imho, a lot of these modeling peregrinations we've been observing are because of the fast flow. At really no time during the last three to five days of modeling the heights from old Mexico ...over the GOM latitudes, to regions over the SW Atlantic Basin, have heights really rendered to total normalcy. They are neutral to above, sometimes very much so depending on model species and cycle therein. That is presenting a problem for mechanical wave-spaces that attempt to propagate E through the field at middle latitudes. The "fanning" effect that people are seeing with vorticity getting pulverized between the ~ eastern Lakes to Texas is a direct result of high antecedent heights resisting, and concomitant higher that average geostrophic wind velocities result over the eastern/SE U.S.; this than absorbing said wave mechanics. I warned folks ...well, beginning 7 years ago... ha, that this kind of thing may be increasingly more observed as the Hadley Cell latitudes encroach into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes... In 50 years, there may only be two cells that define the hemispheric circulation engine: Hadley and Polar...with just a screaming wind banded max separating them at most times. Anyway, back on present Earth... The Solstice 'event' that's been popping up among the various GFS members appears to take place when the N/Stream backs off some... thus, lowering compression, relaxes the wind fields ...and in that time range, S/W and beta-scaled L/W have more mechanical presence in the flow and are those more able to engineer storminess. Those members have been taking advantage. But, they could still all be wrong, too. oy - But it's not just about wave absorption and shearing. It's also about timing ... adding that into the fray only complicates things further.

Heh... right. Just scanning NWS/Norton's climate site... Worcester's setting at -4.5 F departure temperature for the month ( so far ), with 23.1" of snow. Considering the latter, snowfall ( the focus of most users malcontent ...), when inducting the usage of this site, " https://www.weather-us.com/en/massachusetts-usa/worcester-climate#snowfall " ( which I admittedly I have not vetted) Decembers in Worcester average 14.4" If there's truth to these empirical values... ORH are presently sitting at over 160% of average at nearly -5 F, to date ( and it's only just the 13th mind us) ...and this winter sucks? Nah... what sucks is the lives of those judging things that way. I mean, the Earth's atmosphere can only do so much to bring people joy ( ) ... Otherwise, if one has no other pathways to pass-times that are enriching, there's a problem

Well... so far my seasonal prediction is panning out perfectly... Hadley Cell won't yield, and we are flip flopping madly between extremes...

For the convective nuts ... the 12z NAM has regional Lifted Indexes down to -1 .. 0 from NYC to BOS and southeast. T1 at Logan to 15 C with 500H thickness to 563 dm suggests warm sector intrusion perhaps along that line. Hell, S wind to 30 knots too - almost wonder if there's rotation in there... That's a wild-like complexion either way. Even in the interior, where I suspect that gets some resistance and is forced aloft by some...there may be lightning flashes and crackles with shallow inversion and warm frontal success off the deck.

Heh,... 'specially if it's loud from a miscalculated leaner, right when the pastor is about to quote the book of Jobe ... " ...And he said to man, 'Behold, the fear riiiiiiiiiIIII PH, of the Lord ... ah, hem"

You can bun me all you want, Ray ( lol ) but it's true... that harmonic thing does seem to take place from time to time, and as so many of us in here are really here to get that 'drug', it's the only hope they got that their pusher isn't pinched and will show up for the next fix more sooner than later.

I have a tepid suspicion the 12z guidance suite, across the board, offers more cinema and features for hopes and dream realization . heh. This happened 24 hours ago .. The previous 00z run was concrete for blood, drop dead douchy looking. Then, the 12z yesterday brought a lot back to rejoice. Now, the 00z suite more than less goes back to that previous cycle's vibe. Having this 12z cycle come in more like yesterday's 12z, off-set dynamic and far more entertaining overall appeal is A, ...not likely to happen because I'm merely mentioning it ... and B, understandable because of 'sloshing'? It's a "Science Fiction" process in the atmosphere that I noticed years ago, where the models seem to do just what the suggests. En masse, move in a given direction, then, yo-yo back... yo-yo forward, yo-yo back. I see it more frequently in the summer monitoring heat wave evolution - a phenomenon that is highly coveted by the ensemble of users in this particular social mediasphere, of course... But, you'll get this big ridge expression and heat dome on one look, then the next cycle pan-cakes all ridges...only to bring them back. It almost gives an impression of like 'tides' in the models - which would be interesting as they are not actually real, but virtual representations and so forth. They don't always do this... but there some kind of synchronizing phenomenon there where they tend to harmonically express the same error in a given direction - that may be all it is... Chancy harmonics. who knows... But 00z shit, 12z hope, 00z shit... maybe 12z hope?

Interesting ensemble battle wrt that Solstice era event out there. There were enough 00z members of the GFS cluster that were still signaling a system in the east to not to give up on that, despite the 00z overall complexion to not do anything at least excuse imagined ( jesus ). Yet, the EPS mean is very flat and uninspired in that D8-9-10 range, even suggestive of a flat roll-out ridge through the NP/Lakes longitudes getting ready to furnace eastern N/A ( most likely .. ). I mean that's the impression I get from this image's extrapolation below .. an extrapolation based in no small part on the 'animation' of the two days leading. It just looks like it was programmed to ruin Christmas: Obviously the mean/average can be misleading somewhat, if there are particular stand-out awesome versions contained whose voices are being dinned out by the loudness of the majority asshole runs. I mean, that's how Democracies of humanity work too - why the hell not. In fairness, the mean of the GFS is not hugely different in principle comparing this image above, for the same time ... the stellar deterministically dependable D 10 10 10 .. It's actually just presenting more curvature amplitude variation on the same them. My guess is there's like one...maaybe two bombs in the total EPS din, and the rest are empty. So perhaps the EPS will go ahead and modulate its way on over to the GFS, which will also modulate on over to the cryospheric dystopian horror cinema that seems to give people an odd elation high ( fascinating goal ..). Like I said yesterday... or at least intimated, I'm not ready to subsume the GFS anything in lieu of the Euro, for the extended, because my personal experiences with the Euro is that it is not infallible in that time range - anyway...yeah... I get it. But, it is enough so that the GFS/mean therein is just as plausible. No... the Euro owns < 5.5 ... and probably more like 4.5 day leads. Otherwise, it's pop-corn and coke movie time.

Well... one thing is for sure... these wave saturated progressive flows certainly keeps one their toes.

Not sure I see how we're going to get a low to really go west personally .. I may be in the minority on that - dunno. But, the flow seems progressive and with the hidden trend to neutralize and possibly even dip the NAO ...that starts stressing a Lakes position. interesting...

Funny...the difference between the late range Euro and the GFS, other than some timing ... is that the Euro has zero southern stream impulse of any identifiable kind leading up ...

By the way... this may be under-the-radar ( if perhaps also overstating the threat...) but that just on the surface (pun intended..), the Euro's looks like a pretty decent isollabric wind potential Sunday morning. Low is deepening madly as it passes directly over head, and then move rapidly into NNE. That wind is likely to be almost normal to the isobars and really rushing into the back/underside of the cyclostrophic region if that does that.

It's like the model is trying to put the cold there ...BEFORE the -EPO .. .ha

now look at the 00z ...which had, zero PNA (00z + 12z)/2 = totally useless

Significant?... probably varies, relative to the operator of the vehicle that's pirouetting down the highway before ending up in a heap of twinkling red and blue Christmas celebration amid the center median ...while throngs of backed up demography rubber neck by gawking. .01" of icing outta do the trick -

The GFS camp's been trying to dump that into the midriff Canadian shield for days but you know ... cold air mass loading is very iffy in guidance in general. Even if that storm or some saner version of it transpires... I have difficulty believing -33 F at this latitude in 2019. Can it happen.. perhaps. But it'd be like a -7 SD 500 year thing

Partial subsume phase from D8+ is pure buck-shot guess-work... That said, I agree that "something" has been popping up in the ensembles of the GFS for a few days. I actually posted about that Solstice 'hint' last week - don't care to go look for it.

Yeah... this should be the focus -

just be careful not to stall at what one wants and be vigil of the notion ... these could just be snap shots along a transitioning collapse toward a destination that is feared. heh... seriously tho -