Typhoon Tip

actually... they're all more than less showing that acceleration through 7 ...

Nice! the ECMWF product suite is actually rather impressive with the MJO ... more so than the GEFs ( http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml ).. I'll tell ya... one sort of weird way of looking at this, with the wave weaker (corrected) by the GEFs passing through the 6th quadrature that means it inherently spends less time there. Less = less momentum/forcing exerted ... The GEFs even do you favor by accelerating the actual wave propagation speed, showing almost the entire Phase 7 relay and subsequent residence as limited to just a day and half's worth of time! It's like 2.5 days to go from mid/late 6 clear to early 8. It's weak there after though as we can see... not sure what that decay curl thing is about...It doesn't seem to be real though. The last 10 days of MJO nightly guidance keeps moving that curl out in time, while extending points along the curve deeper into more favorable quadratures ...so I'm willing to hunch that the GEFs will eventually come around to a more Euro like solution. Which has gotten pretty good actually. I just (damn damn damn) can't see the WPO and NP-EPO numbers ...I don't have any ancillary sources that are free for cheep douches such as my self to rely upon. But, if indeed the Pacific arc is in or is entering a less discordant wave space(s) ..these total MJO's may add to a +PNA ... So yea... reiterating recent conjecture but these recent prognosis are more in support of winter enthusiast agenda at the point.

Wow... the 06z paralegal run of the GFS was really close to a titanic solutions but just misses ...but soo close. AT 200+ hours... heights across the Gulf of Mexico/Flo and Bahamas have finally relaxed beneath 582 DM...despite the anticyclonic character of the flow curvature (216). The winds in the mid levels are 30 kts or less, and the spacing in the isotachs is rather large. These observation flag the region as compressible ... should a wave try to amplify into that region do to the transitive influence of upstream ridging in the Pac NW, the resulting compression won't hyper rate the geostrophic wind... I set up not commonly found in years actually. That means that S/Ws are conserved into a deeper latitudes. That's all code for this: At that/those times...we see a kind of open super S/W - scaled bag of vorticity gunk sagging through the mid-west. See how close that is? Here's the thing: If/should those western heights bounce back behind bag of gunk, with greater northward curved penetration, that bag of goop would probably phase into a main cohesive S/W dive that would avail of said relaxed flow in the SE, and you'd correct that toward more lower latitude Miller B or Miller A/B in general... But that's when the story really gets intriguing... That midwest trough entices a goodly mass of the western SPV circumvallate to startd descending in... You have to correct these things in your imagination... If the former amplified as said, that means this latter N/stream arrival does so on a steeper trajectory and then things get real dice ...taking step wise correction into something much much bigger. There are two layers to that: the first being... we could through up western heights more and subsequently/consequentially carve out more and end up with party anyway, but, then ... Oy...alas, all this work for paranormal run ... I just like the tenor evolving anyway. There's definitely a window in all guidance packages for amplitude over N/A for mid month.. which obviously .. that's no revelation at this point.

I haven't gone back very many pages ... there's an uptick in user participation/ apparent fervor, so it becomes less clear what conversation snip belongs to what trail of crumbs... But, there is a hidden trend in the last several cycles of the the operational GFS. Someone has surely noticed... For better or worse ... the model is splitting the N/stream into more and more coherently separate wave spaces. .. Rapidly progressing the ~100 hour focus out to sea, the 06z solution is another step more toward identifying new S/W ... diving in as an impressive flat wave, and generating it's own cyclogenesis ...technically would be (thus) unrelated entirely. That's a very complex scenario there... I could see that evolving into even a Norlun situation... With the lead escaping east, ...say, instead of the new cyclogen back west, the inv trough intensifies as the N/stream mechanics continuously feeding through.. Or, the two separate yet more, and there is virtual blind N/stream late bloomer deal. The Euro model 'almost' hints at having issues figuring this out too ...as I suspect the lead southern wave is creating a negative interference for it's N/stream solution. Fascinating.

I just ... I dunno doc ... I get the feeling like I'm not supposed to forget about her. I know it's not rational and whatever - but no one understands how symbolic reality its self seems to be; like everywhere I look there is something there that reminds me of her in a very specific way...

Good to know... Been asking this question but didn't seem anyone knew ... Is that true over sees products reliant upon western hemisphere ? Yeah, that's an interesting point about spin back into operation... heh, if that ever happens.

Yeah we mentioned that a couple days ago ... sort of the under radar aspect means, the EPS was wrong yesterday ...if it is right today. And if the EPS is right today ...that means the GEFs wins this debate. sort of ... maybe not exactly all fields but those that tend to eschew the GEFs really shouldn't - straw man argument

ahahaha... The irreconcilable differences between reason and funk ... match made in hell - Yeah... more than less agree.. .but, I also think part of the sensi schtick going on is that if that fails to be the grandeur in specter of peoples dystopian dreams at this point ...heh... Thing is, a modest turn around with more normal wintry threats would also fit inside the greater-scaled envelope/paradigm shift, too.

Omg am I glad you said that! Jesus ... I mean I've been wanting to for days but ...it seems this group (if perhaps justifiably so...) is approaching inconsolable... I was thinking exactly the same thing that even a modulation off that EPS would probably be bigger than people think... Although that may be a little different but still ...it's also landing on climo like you said. then... don't look now but SSW may enter yet... and... MJO aside, the climo of weak warm ENSO tends to favor after Jan 10 too... There's a lot of convergent indicators going on here, but they may not be showing in the physical presentation (or may...haven't cleaved open an ICON solution just yet...) but it seems it's hard to convey this shit when there's a dearth of focus on an actual chart.

I think we all know that the operational version tends to run a little happy amid amplification fields... perhaps owing to it's native charm. ...I mean, D5 to 10... Once inside there different

yeah i updated that statement

EPS across the conus really just looks like it mimics the operational version xcept at the very end of course

Unless the ECM gets it's base data/purchase from the CDC division - then it may actually be the other way around. How's that for hope -

I actually did float an idea similar to that about a week ago but I was mainly just asking 'if' that would ever be the case.

would anyone have a clue why CPC stopped updating their stratosphere-troposphere monitoring web page three days ago? they were in operation for all the other days of this gov appropriations thing so not sure that's why here. It's kind of annoying - Oh, duh - never mind. Maybe cuz it's January you dumb asshole Mm, yeah..that doesn't seem to be it either though. Seems their off -

Yeah so this run has a lot of mechanical power along the 45th to 50th parallels, with a bit of an unusually "left alone" underneath look in the southern regions. Euro with warm 850s ubiquitous S...while neutral-negative undulating within a progressive pattern along the Can/U.S. border. But I like the D5 --> 6 staying open at least...and then if/when there's closure the associated surface cyclone(s) remain weakly cohesive. This runs seems to nuder the ability to generate a deep surface system ...probably owing to the fact that the flow is really not very compressible S /SE ...keeping any surface reflection from maximizing via curvature feed backs. How about the raging sou'easta late in the frames? huh - yeah... just zactly what is deserved -

He was talking about January ... I mean... most of what's driving the tenor in here on "!Jan 3rd!" is the impatience of addiction - ask the Methadone clinic patient to just wait 10 minutes for their next dose and see how well that goes ...

Which is utopia compared to 1995

Why is that a melt down? Taking culpability isn't a melt down ... it's responsibility -

you could actually suspect so just by looking how it modulated the flow across the conus -

We've been talking about the MJO as a "constructive" or "destructive" interference on the planetary atmospheric system for years now... I'm assuming we're just making conversation at this point. In any case, personally I'm hypothesizing that the Euro's low amplitude resolution heading deeper into phase 7 may have something to do with just that... The eastern transition to the western hemisphere doesn't really support that wave space ... at least through week 1/10 days... After that, we'll see if that phase 8 sticks. One thing I have noticed over the years is that the Euro MJO does have more "stability" in its outlooks. It seems to maintain continuity better but I haven't dug around for any specific verification/comparisons in the matter either. Also, just so's folks might approach an understanding .. positive and negative interference is not absolute. Saying either does not preclude anything. If the Pacific wants to be in a AA phase, and the Indian Ocean farts out a wave, it may initially be suppressed some ... impetus on some. And vice versa of course. As Scott or whomever that was mentioned, ...it adds momentum, or ...robs it away... wave interference is offset. Sometimes when the wave seems to crash inward into that inner detection boundary region it's really just the surrounding medium doing a proficient dampening.

Sweet rhetoric there ...buut, heh. Unless one acquires some sort of paranormal foresight or super - prescience ... or whatever we wanna call it, we are only as good as the technology. It is those that provide a basis, the canvas and the paints upon which one illustrates their visions - visions inherently guided by some amalgamation between the imagination together with objective logic. Some have too much of either ... While no one can foresee fractals. You know it's funny... We're born blind to the ways of the Universe... Somewhere along the way, at varying rates, we reflect our shimmering gallery ... As we grow older, while others revel for the beauty of our opus, we grow silent in our covet: the greatest lessen learned in life is only known at the very end - all that wisdom teaches us we know nothing at all. That's why very old people just sort of smile off to the side telling tails about roller-coaster rides... while the follies of ego and tragic comedies of pride play out before them. It's not that they are mentally compromised ... though there may be some of that... It's mainly because they already know

anyway... hey, it snowed a few gossamer flakes this morning... Phew, ... that was close! Just dodged futility huh? I think that D5-6 event has some merit as ... heh, actually existing. That's been one thing that no one's really even noticed ...that I'm aware, is that the models have a lot of feature-failure going on during the span of this total ass violation pattern. I'd like to see any system at all at this point, one that could possibly be winter profiled, actually take place. In a Universe theoretically constructed entirely from bits of quantum uncertainty principles ... it seems to be violating the uncertain aspect of that. It's not suppose to be this certainly horrible. No comment on what that existence will entail, except: The first being ... the EPS' racing the high seaward can't happen or despite whatever initial conditions there are in the lower troposphere ...they will reverse and rain... That said, the mean is still committing reasonably well for 144 hours, to a secondary PP SE of CC. ...that's, "pressure pattern southeast of cape code" That means among other governing factors, there is some boundary layer cold resistance/viscosity going on... Yup, it could be 34 light rain density, sure... Secondly ...Despite all that the individual GEF members (about half to two thirds strong) indicating a more robustly stalled anticyclone over eastern Ontario. The variance at mid lvls(500 mb) is actually pretty tame for a 120 to 170 hours in general. And indeed, the pretty graphical blended synoptic evolution shows that high remaining anchored. If that were true, it's surface evolution is DEFINITELY too far N with the frontal position - not arguable. FACT, one that I've proven a hundred times with a hundred successes. It's physically impossible for the model to know precisely where the surface frontal slope is given present day technology and Ekman mechanics.. but that's an eye-glosser. I don't know what the specific model biases are regarding that specific handling with surface pressure over eastern Ontario ...beyond the autopilot assumption that the EPS is better so we can't consider any other scenario... But, in that situation next week, more or less high pressure exertion in the lower troposphere appears to onus much of the system complexion. The other aspect is that the overall heights are still not hugely supporting trough amplitude like the operational Euro..It did back off slightly compared to previous, but still is on the potent side. The heights over the deep south and se are anomalously rich prior to this thing being ejected east ... the flow exhibiting higher velocities.. That presence a canvas neggie sort of interference pattern so I could see a "slight" amp bias of the Euro needing a spatula there

We are definitely reduxing February 2015 now specifically because you said that - as in personally ... Yup, it's like that scene in the Greek mythology where some hubris challenges Aphrodite's beauty... pissing off Zeus, who then looks the other way while Hades dooms civilization to the perils of The Crackin' ... Scott so arrogantly decried winter is over that now... having to base our world perception on logic and reason, we have no choice but to pretend that he did not just unleash the winter Crackin ... Nice goin' buckwheat

I still think this February is more conducive to 2015 that 2015 was ... heh