Typhoon Tip

heh a- haha... yeah. Courier and Ive'er ftw

Mm... it's possible that thing continues to degrade into something similar to what just happened with another post frontal scenario - ... Perhaps instead of temporally being right on the heels, it's just taking another 24 to 36 hours to ripple up the boundary. Maybe quasi wave/ANA mash up

Actually ...far worse are the "experienced" enthusiasts of the social mediasphere

OH yeah -hahaha. I forgot to look at the ensemble means, et al - I figured on the way to work ...just had that feeling for some reason, you know? And yup! anyway... maybe the ensemble means will lend some sanity to the mayhem of this continuity shit that has me scratching head.

All in all... now through xmass still appears to be a velocity saturated maelstrom of teleconnector lost events that are hard to track, and probably favor icing scenarios. That doesn't mean it won't snow That doesn't mean there won't be bombs It just means - for me - adjust expecations along the other end of the probability spectrum. Fast flows also put determinism at a premium, anyway, ..perhaps the overnight particularly annoying flavor of continuity shift ( heh ) is just that playing out. What's the tally on Euro "bring it backs" ?? Like, the GFS used to always notoriously lose events then bring them back. Does the Euro do this too - I don't even know.

Man ... what a pattern blow-up attempt by the models overnight. There was about an ~ 25% continuity failure in the operational Euro from 12z yesterday; at the time, I thought was still within the noise expectation considering D 6, but that's now about 80% break-down comparing the previous 'total' ..what does that come out too at 4 cycles a day... oh, 20 cycles of persistence. Jesus, 20 cycles of moderate snow persistent implications could not survive the pass into the outer temporal edge of the medium range. Interesting. The GFS is still playing around with that thing.. it's flatter with it. It's hard to tell what is triggering it's lower tropospheric wave featuring, tho. It has an open wave with an impressive wind max doing a 500 mb version of a Lakes cut, but...it's got a surface wave suppressed S by the highly sloped/BL cold resistance, where the mean polar boundary so far displaced to the S, that it's not abundantly clear that the Lake cutting S/W could even be responsible for it's surface wave! Weird. There is a lot of excited mid and upper air velocities in the flow around the western OV/TV and up through NY and over us through the period, so, ...it's plausible if not possible we're looking at two separate entity drivers altogether. The Lakes thing isn't responsible and is too far removed...and the OV to NE wave we see for next Tuesday is in fact merely a WAA wave that is getting some hydrostatic kick-back by those faster wind fields... I guess I'm spit ballin' a little, trying to figure out how we can get that Tuesday deal ( or more precisely, the GFS ) to be right over the Euro... I did mentioned yesterday that the Euro has had seemingly more difficulty maintaining features and events ... passing them from the D7 into mid range, comparing the GFS at times - not all the time. It's interesting that it goes the other way, too - irony.

Thank you very much ... I realize y'all are talking about something else entirely .. But, this concentrated bastion of weather-related, social media "enthusiasts," it seems at times have no idea how enabled they are. Posting perception that are grown from those faux soils, and thus and ripe for rude awakenings. This weird cold node-ing that's been going on around this region of the world, has been doing so frankly since 2001 ... I've pointed this out on several occasions over the years, but more so than less gave up. I guess it's either too uninteresting, or, delusion penetrating ( I like the latter) but this climate from the Lakes to NE and SE Canada, has been a cold nucleus targeting western Maine... Somewhat tongue-in-cheek..but, but carries an element of truth. Some how, some way, the planetary circulation et al has has been persistently off-setting this region, such that we've been warmer than normal, but less so comparing the rest of the planets on-going concern. ...At times, down right significantly below, as well. Those Dec-so-far CONUS blow torch with a purple dipole over NE fits right in with that ( now ) multi-decadal motif. So persistently is that motif that I've long begun to wonder if it, in itself, is a permanent GW fixture until the Hadley Cell finally engulfs our latitude too ...and that draws out an entirely new paradigm when that happens ..in how many decades -

Not that anyone is considering otherwise, but: Euro: subtle continuity shift in both amplitude of cyclogen, track...and also, mid level trough morphologies.. .however, much of that - to me - seems to fall inside of the 'noise' definition envelope, particularly ( duh ) this far out at D6. These variations don't seem too distracting. I'll tell you, the D5 table setting is pretty damn text-book, with a semblance of a 50/50 low waiting until the last minute to turn off the cold faucet, then the trough cuts in underneath to retrograde the next tropospheric deepener SW ...which concomitantly is often the coastl/Nor'easters we've come to identify as K.U.ies.. But this Euro run actually does the opposite of what it typically does going from D5 to 6 ... it gets, LESS amplified crossing that temporal boundary. That's unusual in itself -

yeah that GGEMer has very few peers in the -what-one-want's as a winter enthusiast, department.. heh. That's like 18 straight hours of moderate wind-whipped shattering aggregates and cob-webbing off roof eaves in that solution. Hot cocoa storm. Probably 12 to 18" solid 50 miles either side of a line from NE PA to EWR to HFD to BED... It even has an interesting IP band near Willamic to Logan-esque line...but mmm given the antecedent synoptic players and their specifics, GGEM's BL warm bias is quite likely in play there. That's probably more snow farther S in that total ordeal. THAT event proooobably doesn't suffer the same fate as the bigger snow from last week, where immediately ensuing there is some fantastic snow bobbling monster. I agree on the Euro whomever mentioned... as I was saying, it's demoed good continuity thus far so it's interesting if that does so again.

"...The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event...." equals "... major ice.." ?? lol

GFS: In general these days I am not as willing to discount it, in lieu of Euro, out of hand ... Seems that was more doable as a tact, oh... five years ago. But, for whatever reason ( and I'm sure this in no way shape or form shows up in any empirical verification scoring just to because some god of douche thinks it is entertaining to start social media vitriol ! ), it at times does better in the D6-9 time range ... beating out the Euro with sniffed trends. It'll put up a single run sometimes that nails the thing .. Problem is, it summarily has trouble with conviction. It starts going, 'yeah but what if..' usually right around the temporal seam of the mid turning page into short range. Only to come back when it's 12 hours out and nail it again! It's probably why the Euro scores better? Now that I think about that; by shear weight of its consistency, alone. Suppose it is consistently wrong 30% of the time, but the GFS is 100% right on just three cycles out of 10, but is otherwise 40% frustrating... I may be just remembering those early runs that were 100% But I'm digressing... I just wanted to say, if the GFS does verify and quasi- cuts that middling low west through Buffalo, it's definitely going to be wrong about the amount of cold boundary layer erosion over interior S and C NE regions it's selling. There is a "scooter" high - is that right? - up N of Maine, retreating N, not E... and slow enough N to impart ageostrophic drain and ice (most likely) almost down to the S. Coast. That will never never never never never erode out as liberally as the GFS, given those antecedent synoptic parameters and their subsequent evolution...not by experience .. not by climate. The model is unwittingly signaling a short duration icing event. 'Sides, the ptype products indicate ice does fight some, so it's most likely a llv resolution thing. ECM: It's been more consistently E of the GFS comparing the last several cycles. And, as a testament to the consistency mentioned above...it's also had good run to run continuity. I actually like this run better than the GFS, despite the reality that once in a while it detects early ideas quicker, based upon climate of storm tracks alone. The next in succession tends to be more E of the predecessor. Not always... Times of intense retrograde atmospheres, those present exceptions. But this is that... The system this weekend is also east of this last one ... just doesn't have any cold air. In fact, the models are starting to commit more so to coastal low.. Unrelated to next week: I'm noticing a deep range GFS and ensemble member tendency therein, to stall lows around NE and have them resume a motion anomalously ESE into the Atlantic. I've noticed in the past, that can at times presage a -NAO eruption. It's almost like there is a scaffold in the physics et al that supports the NAO, but the the models have yet to 'fill it in' and build one in the form of blocking. Even the Euro ..D 8-10...has a tendency to pearl SPV's from the NW of Canada to the mid Maritimes SW of the D. Straight, yet... seems interestingly too low with the geopotential medium over the D. Straight its self/Greenland. Those regions seem prone to collect some atmospheric depth.. So, may be something to watch for.

I'm at 20" ...

Turned out a solid performer for Ayer and vicinity... I route down 190 ( mid state..) typically for commute, and it was pretty uniform coverage by look alone - but obviously I did not pull over and measure along the way.. heh. I measured 4" exactly at 6 am when I left. Nothing falling by then. Must of been a healthy burst because it was still raining ...though with 'fat' drops by street lamp, as of 11 pm when it was 37 F. Should have stuck it out ... it probably flipped like 5 minutes after I hit the sack. I love those closer moments when it goes over. It's a stenciling job .. static clinger - Ansel Adams to Courier&Ives, they'd be jealous! Bravo to anyone that stuck to their guns on this. I certainly wavered late. I was concerned about the S/W being "lost" in the screaming flow and not having enough to induce lift back over the front, but last night's rad trends ...even by 8 pm made it clear that we were lagging anyway. It's early in post-mortem but probably it was just those statically fast velocities in general .. .perhaps not needing the acceleration. Or, there was also more acceleration than was readily observable in the guidance...Either way. Cheers.

Ive been trying to hit the ice potential harder the last couple few days... This is a good pattern on deck for that. Couple cyro- dystopic horror story GFS runs for TX but I figure those for getting smeared more out in the flow and ending up being more progressive cyclic stormers up the northern TV/OV to NE in time... time will tell - mix/snow/ice/ and yes...cold rain

18z NAM has bunch, huh

Meh... the Euro erroneously bullies that southern JB vortex/N/stream S into that whole set up like fist rape .. That southern stream ( or quasi southern stream ) D7 probably stays more coherently separate ...if the model verifies up to that day right in the first place. I do at least 'appreciate' the model sloping the southern aspects of the trough back toward the west though, because the SE height compression would do that so is acceptable. But man ... get a load of that - 30C 850 mb plume of air it has wobbling around southern Canada for days..

I mean to say 7 into 8, btw

funny you mention... there's definitely an STJ vibe -

D8 Euro is a bomb regardless of what the D7 has... That D7 chart can only do one thing, NJ Model nuke

NF's gettin' like 32" of snow in 10 hours out of that 120 hr Euro ...jesus christ. Probably a narrow band of paint peeling sleet along the warm front transition ... the kind where it's jagged balls stuck together than driven along by 50 mph gusts... They should create a warning criteria for bullet sleeting -

starting to sniff like despite all that's transpired across this 'hoping journey' ... the original insights and experience may prevail. waste of time

yeah...GGEM's likely not right because ...well, it's the GGEM ... but I rather like the idea of enhanced icing-type events during the period in question. The GFS later on for Dallas/N. TX and so forth ... notwithstanding and likely extreme too, but we have vestiges of a fast flow/STJ with confluence in Canada and 'scooter' highs being modeled outright anyway, let alone the rec ... Just seems clocking an icer or two are just as plausible to me.

I like the 4" of acceted ice the GFS has for Dallas metro at the end-a next week ... 2.5 days of moderate to heavy rain into 26 F

It's the vast majority of need... You have to DIFFFERENTIATE ... Sorry to yell...just trying to get that point in to people. If the flow is fast, and a S/W moves into that region ...the net approaches 0... as you do, you get less responses everywhere... until you are at 0, where shit nadda nothing takes place. Everything in the atmosphere happens because of differential process. period. There's nothing else driving this stuff. Keep in mind, also, this is the science - how it pertains to this particular set up is a separate discrete analysis. I'm just pointing this stuff out as possible explanation for the models backing off. Because from what I am seeing actually depicted from the various sources.. the S/W is getting lost in the flow up there.

Starting to see why the models are backing off a bit as we get closer .. The problem is that the wind velocity at mid levels ahead of the western OV [ apparent ] short wave are not actually differentiating with respect to S/W enough because of that antecedent velocity surplus... S/W 'disappears' in streams that are already fast and that's it.. game over ( in relative amounts that is..). Anyway, I've tried to explain this a thousand times and it doesn't seem to be very well-received - probably ignored because it's bad news whenever the topic needs to come up... But, when the flow is very fast, S/W's get absorbed.. .and when they get absorbed, they don't have mechanical ability to trigger restoring jet structures... which in this case, is the post frontal up-glide -- destablization and breakout of lag QPF... etc... Go find the S/W over the western OV and notice the wind swell ahead of it are already modeled over 110 kts everywhere! I've been discussing at length across recent years ... that velocity surplussing in the atmosphere is a detriment in some cases because it is, in a 2ndary sense of it, a destructive wave interference in the relationship between large scale base-state synoptics, when then placing S/W spaces into said field that is already screaming. The large scale 'cancels' out the power of the smaller scales... There is only so much mechanical energy available to the atmosphere, which we know to be true. The Earth only rotates so fast and the density of the atmosphere is a constant... such that PV=NRT combined with the Corriolis in the equations of atmospheric motions can only result in so much .. .Well, if the large scale already expresses all that strength, the S/W are screwed - one way to think of it. So, this OV S/W is having trouble in the models inducing the upglide over the west side of the front.