Typhoon Tip

Yeah but then the GFS starts engineering nor-easters ... It's got a nor'easter out of a 500 mb impulse it has driving straight south along the eastern seaboard - I mean, how does it do that lol. Is it on purpose? I'd say there's chance that's all faux -reasons for thread stalkers to pounce on optimism pending more support -

Whatever one wants to call it ... I'm in Scott's camp - the pattern's changed. When it does scale back after tomorrow, when/if/or BDs and/or 'flies in the ointment' etc .. we're not talking about flurries and packing pellet virga exploded CU's ...it's just pleasant. In other words, we escape the madness - and today btw sucks donkey balls. I hate these -10 to -15 day-high douche days of wind and pancake. go f it'self. I don't know what it is... I almost care less about the sun and more about the temp not being a big lubed up rape-dong at this time of year. It's just sapping of will - ugh Warm frontal two-step may throw clouds and showers around off-and-on as regardless of all..boundary perhaps sets up and oscillates prior to that bigger ridge ( if it happens...) later next week but have to take that day-by-day

The 00z Euro was pretty darn hot from the western Ohio Valley to the mid Atlantic in that day 8-9-10 range. Of all synoptic metrics in the atmosphere, warm air is the most fragile. Day 4 of the Euro features a weak S/W ular formed bend in the isohypses up over Idaho ? It then takes that feature east across the NP ...Lake --> through day 7. Then, typical for this model at that time range and trajectory, somewhere it finds the mechanical wherewithal to deepen it substantially. That suspicious spontaneity then conveniently engineers a cool back 850 mb plume timed through New England. I don't argue 'a feature'/S/W moving through; I question the Euro's amplitude - seeing as it appears borrowed.. It's not a huge deal though... In fact, the cool back is more like a 'dent back.' In old school Met parlance we referred to that as a "pacific" cold source but it's really a misnomer, as all that means is any cool source that doesn't have a delivery from higher to lower latitude. And then we'll see if that heat in the farther extended is for real/where. I see this all the time .. particularly in springs that are butt banged. When the pattern finally relents, there's a kind of slosh back climate correction ...where a ridge balloons and rattles some SW ejected plateau heat for a couple days. The big dome back three years ago in early July was that. And then the rest of the summer couldn't get hot to save it's ass. Oh, it was sack-sticker humid but but heat and tall ridges were muted. I wonder if this is just predictable climo ...where we'll get a week of dome and then settle back into a NW trajectory drought summer with big heat after big heat ejection shunted S to Virginia ... Then, this deepens in October, snows in November... before Global warming/HC expansion mechanics on a hemispheric scale then f's up all seasonal forecasts for next winter with speed shearing and unrelenting gradient...rinse repeat for the next 20 years...

Heh...day is long though... National rad scope is worse than satellite which shows a lot of skylights opening up W-S and will be brightening across the area over the next hour(s) with enough time to offer some destabilizing that said ...the day was always more of a tongue-in-cheeker' anyway. It's a passtime while we wait for spring or spring/summer hybrid to flash in week's end. Going through a doorway into another realm and don't look back. And all this bargaining and negotiating within an unrelenting, no reason to do it but it is anywy faux winter pattern that's seemingly metaphysically connected to the Pandemic will all be going bye-bye. I bet the Pandemic starts seeing the sought after May drop off then too

Nah... that's just the seasonality of a warmer, somewhat theta-e richer air mass reflected in the sounding; that will look generically like that until October 3rd when we start heading on back the other way. You know it's funny - half kidding here ... but there's some truth to it - I look at soundings over Kansas, OK....IA and wonder why that whole region of the country doesn't just spontaneously detonate into a massive mushroom cloud as though an asteroid impacted on any given day in early June... Nadda. just streets of harmless CU sitting blithely over 6,000 SB CAPE...

Whether some in here realize this or not ... they covet that and hope it happens ...anything to not have warm sun and the general joy and mirth sensation summer brings to the majority - lol... you can include me in that group circa November 1 to March 15 ... I'm actually thinking the 'stretched' L/W appeal and the flatter total wave spacing may help stump that potential some. A lot of BD mechanics requires a sharpening in S/W's as they are leaving that ~ 50/70 region, such that backside NVA curls with more strength ...piling the air up causing the +PP discontinuity and then that air "fills in" the gap on the eastern side of the cordillera...etc..etc... Then doing so over cold Labrador waters and eegh! Anyway, the flatter deep layer limits ( a little ...) of that backside NVA curl, which then transmits less mass to the lower levels and the BDs end up with a less momentum. Not a total mitigation no but we'll see

yeah, getting some sort of evaporational cooling and hammer currents from this line of showers as it fans up throw... interesting

we just went through a weird 2 minute event here when this line of showers passed over head... White noise stripping flowering trees and sending rain drops sideways. Suspiciously inverted sounding as it was decidedly colder gusts. Almost no wind now...

That is hilarious .... across decades of Meteorological experience I've never heard the words 'dewpoint', '40s', and 'contribute' actually attempted in the same sentence when speaking in deference to convection - what a f'up state of climate we must be in

Actually... the more I look at that EPS evolution D6 to 10 there is multi-faceted warm-season entertainment chances, ranging from late tornado season potential in the plains, to a heat expulsion. Usually you don't get both those... When bigger heat/EML's get boated out of the southwest, they are associated with CIN so wide-spread strafing super cellular rake events get suppressed, and what tends instead is toward those giant 80DBZ cannonball-sized hailer, isolated carbuncles on radar that look like they must be drilling for oil but are all 10 mile gated meso with overshooting domes to 70K ... MCS running around ridge rims too... Anyway, if a bigger tor event happens from the lognitudinal wave progression from D6/7 to 10, then it's more likely we have pedestrian early season warmth spreading up ahead... We could have early DP transport despite our green-up being somewhat belated -interesting.. But, here's the thing, the players are in favorable stage-block assignments for putting on an early heat show. At D5-7, there is a lead roll-out ridge that should see the ambient boundary displaced up near the St Lawrence (~) with shallow BDs a potential ..granted, but... Those are not incursion cold/deep trough migrations as the longitudinal flow tendency is ( as noted yesterday ...) instructed by a neutralizing NAO so the flow wants to lift in latitude along the eastern seaboard. But what all this evolution does ... is it sets the stage for if/when a heat expulsion from the SW gets ejected, it would then be naked to swath up in the circulation, and that's just what the D8-9-10 of the Euro operational/EPS mean is attempting to do... So, a big heat departure into the OV/Lower Lakes to NE actually has total roots in the predecessor ridge-roll out setting the stage, and then the second ridge roll-out has captured EML/850 mb super charged air then lidded and running up in the continental conveyor ... Little bit of synoptic anatomy lesson on SW heat releases

mm hm ... Weather aficionados falter in their craft if they do not consider the bumps and perturbations running along the interface between these flat/zonal flow ridge amplitudes, and the still vestigial tendency to buckle over Ontario. ... powdered "invisible-to-the-models" backdoor front, just add picnics - No one asked but ... this week was still just about transitioning away from that bombastic cold pattern into a more traditional transition season/climate expression for mid May ... (some extended hints now for more heat) Also .. CC seems to mandate most days are +1.6 to +3 departure, which only get corrected more modestly positive by a raining day that insidiously skews the peril or the world, making the total months only seem more modestly doom-saying. Heh. Oh, the world is so preoccupied by the immediate "Great Cootie Meme of 2020," humanity has forgotten the real extinction signal: the Earth cannot support this species, either way and countless will die. ... enjoy your morning coffees grown and shipped, heated and enjoyed by means and method of profligate expenditure attributed carbon footprinting - The 00z Euro and the EPS mean for that matter, both set stage and begin executing a Sonoran heat release toward the end of the run. Noormaly ...day 10 is nothing more than sip-o-joe morning entertainment.. Buuut, that cluster nailed this presumptive pattern change this week ...timing and amplitude, and actually ..morphology of the super-synopsis from Hawaii to southern Greenland for that matter, going back to when it was day 10, too... So, it may be that it just sees things during present era so... hm - A climo correction flip into heat was hinted on the previous run, too and it's merely more discerned here. Doesn't take a poet to see 90's before the end of the month when balanced against where we've been

In terms of sensible weather variation yours up there ( typical for quasi-mountain Met) stands to be most extreme with the changes likely to succeed this week. In fact, Friday's Euro warm punch is deep in the troposphere .. that's 800 mb boundary-pausal look there so you'll be creepin the 60 isotherms pretty high up those slopes should that prevail as is synoptically modeled - if at day 5 usual caveat applies.

Ooh... just got to see D9 and 10 ... Yeah, the euro is as guilty with ridges as it is with troughs in that time range, so ...taken for how little that's worth - that does have a climo corrector look to it speak of the devil. It'll be interesting as that sort of flip has precedence ... Something tells me May doesn't end -12 to -16 some how some way. This week's seasonal progression/flip was actually nailed by the Euro at D10 and I've been vigilantly paying attention and it hasn't deviated...now the other guidance is on it...and, the GEFs NAO go positive heading toward next weekend and so pulling the exit latitude of the westerlies up the eastern U.S. isn't a bad fit. Heh...call me a dork, but I'm always fascinating by the 'day' the season seems to take it's biggest single leap - you can do this in November too sometimes... neat.

Mmm ... those of us of the warm season enthusiast ilk have three more days of it - you did say 'one of the last days' ...but one of the last four days is less spun and more precise. Anyway, there is still a remarkably well agreed up transition this week where we effectively cut right to summer. Thursday's the silver bullet day... 12z Euro put eclat on it too... really dramatic transition across 30 hour ... ~ Wed 18z to Friday 21Z ... sun depending. Not sure what the cloud products look like - haven't looked that close, but 12z Friday downs +14C at 850 mb, in a jolt warm fropa ... I saw that back in 2010.. We were having a some trouble in early May that year ( though nothing like this ) and a "nose" structure warm boundary intrusion came around the top side of a burgeoning ridge ...that much being quite similar to what this Euro run is also doing.. and it punch in with a 24 hour temp change of 64 to 84 -90 across a day-high to day-high interval. Not saying that 'exactly' is taking place Thur into Friday, but that secondary warm intrusion early Friday really looks quite similar and that could see mid day temp absolutely maximizing the 850 and maybe even taller, too. But before that... that change 18z Wed to Thursday 21Z is nothing to shake a stick at, either. There's a bit of an amorphously defined warm advance that takes place Thursday over the arc of the southeast retreating high. In fact, that day could be greater diurnal changes across single 12-hour period in quite some time. That synopsis should decouple in the last of it, cellar temps in the 30s/near freezing dawn; 850mb recover to ~ +6C by late afternoon on a freshening well mixed west wind... Could be 70-75

Of course there’s another ‘sensible’ angle on that. -19 daylight hours may have nights -1 ... affectedly robbing the observer of their commiserate achievement. Lol

Yup.... every year there are days in the climate that end up -19 ...

I'm not sure I buy the Florida to SE U.S. coastal hybrid low idea ... I seem to recall the GFS did this last spring too, and they were false much of the time. Autumn as well..

Palpably different sensible weather flashes in mid week... At seasonality, perhaps even add a couple/few tickets. A few days ago I commented that it is not unprecedented to see a 'climate correction' occur within a temporal stones throw of a departure, whether it achieves that by amplitude in similar time span ... or in the aggregate - this appears it may be slated for the latter. Hang in there ... it's almost over. 120 hour...well actually 108 now, and the 850 mb thermal layout is really washing away. Most guidance agree that a warm front/diffused warm frontal passage takes place Wednesday night and Thursday may be 20 F warmer than Wed by 5 or 6 pm. Credit the Euro... ( so far, we'll see ) but it picked this up at the edge of D10, five days ago, ..and it's held serve. now the GFS is even showing the seasonal flip - late as it is in every case and reality...jesus. It's amazing getting this version of the GFS to even admit to ridging and the 18z really signals ...makes me wonder if this may actually get more impressive ensuing model cycles. This was a hemispheric fold synopsis off the Pacific warm eddy ... whenever we get a -EPO to super impose over the tendency, that's a constructive wave interference and it went absolutely bonkers.

sarcasm aside I actually like this description - seriously

Lol... I mean like "3000" ? That's a commune - The stuff about the Internet destabilizing status quo's is true though - separate matter

Yeah I still think this is turning more blase because of the speed of the flow is too great - This thing is seriously just rocketing along ... it's developing a low, but it's impacting far D.E.M. and/or western NS up that way because it's translation speed is faster than the development rate - and it has to be... because the jet structures are being compromised in the cyclone model. So, with the storm sped up it also tends to be more middling in intensity. You can have fast moving bombs ...sure, but in May, when we're trying to do it all with the singular metric of very deep 500 MB heights, you need to really maximize the UVM to tap into that instability... DPVA is getting blunted by the fact that the flow has velocity surplus before the jet(max) of the S/W arrives at any point along the fluid medium of its trajectory. Partial derivatives for the win!

Coincidence ... most likely. But perhaps there is some commiseration value in noting the propensity for tenderizing butts - lol.. Seriously, we're talking something like a -5 or so standard deviation, middle troposphere anomaly, possibly in two waves... early Saturday and again early Tuesday - though the latter is obviously negotiable. Anyway, -5 standard deviations in January? mmm... that's a whole difference ball-game, and is not the same thing as what this is. Now, obviously there is some climate-relativity there... Like, the sun is modulating the current one from the bottom up and that's skewing the potential of what this thing may/might have done... Also, at the nadir of winter, or the max of summer for that matter, pushing extremes can't really get as dramatic as the transition seasons because they are comparing a deep(tall) column already...etc..etc.. But, removing these factors: this is different and more extreme than anything that set up this recent winter.

Yeah... I have a thought - next is stock-piling weapons. When's the movement formalized for seceding? That bold is a somewhat unnerving in a way. It's a bit of an homage to a real sociological problem that is emerging because of internet technologies, et al. What is happening to humanity because of the last 20 to 30 years... it is focusing local ethos into 'cultural schisms' Seriously, it is a real phenomenon that is/has begun tearing at the fabric of societal identities everywhere. It's tsunamis of information exposure is causing fear, and then reclusive tendencies back into realms of familiarization because the average person can't really process the immense complexity and Globular abstractions of the 'whole planetary' din. And then these 'cultural islets' that formulate become tribal; made up of 3000 peeps that tend to fold in fringe ideologies over time, but close the door on the general voice's ability to instruct the common point of view that by proximity extends too far outside the internal's registry... they become dangerous given time. Not all, but a few... You guys ready to secede yet - ... haha

Looks to me like it’s still cyclogenetic ...it’s just that it’s moving too quick to get its act together in time - it moves from roughly Logan Airport to far down is Maine in six hours that’s unusually fast motion. It’s really you need less height gradient with the same thickness gradient ..and then you would have a slower moving storm capable of doing dynamics and all that jazz It’s possible for storm translation to outpace the kinematic response in the atmosphere - guess what we’ve been dealing with it all year

This 0Z nam solution has thickness is 515 dam over Logan at 48 hours… I have never seen that that deep in the month of May ever. That’s got to be some kind of a historic record for that particular metric –