Typhoon Tip

wah-how... those indie versions of the GEFs are lewd - cover your children's eyes

Good find! ...even looks similar too - I'm/we're not saying that's an analog per se but... this thing seems like it could product a wave and then a lingering inv trough sort of set up ... "if" the total wave spacing turns flatter like it should... The other possibility is that the total synoptic r-wave configuration is in the process of changing "as" this thing unfolds, ... separate headache if that were ever to happen -

I wonder if ever it has happened where there's a lead wave with a nice 6-8" low end warning snow that fades into choking Norlun ... Such that it looks like one single 30" juggernaut but was in fact two disparate things going on: a wave moves off the snow lightens for several hours and then the lag trough/convergence with llv neg eq p-v goes nuts.

I'll say one thing.. the pattern in the Euro nearing D10 does take on more +PNAP look ... It almost looks like the model is trying to fight it though - ...obviously that's an affectation but it's a poorly constructive western heights look that has a lot of weird holes punched in it... Like it's all N-stream and there's a concurrent breakdown of much forcing at all below the 40th parallel. weird.

still don't like the look of that... At D4 you can clearly see a preponderant positive anomaly well anchored in the lower level Rosby layout from Hawaii all the way around to Bermuda, and the Euro tries to amplify a trough over top. I suppose stranger things have happened. Again... I think keeping a potent wave as a flat wave type of evolution is warranted but ... this game is at times about juggling anomalies too -

That's actually worse than the previous day's posting... That 'mop ended' splaying of different graphical curves ... granted, they are all neggie but the spread means instability. The previous run had said unstable look but this is actually even more frayed and on balance, looks slightly less negative in the mean. That said, the signal is still there. It's definitely a tendency to descent in general... It may and in fact probably will be that said splaying will begin to coalesce around an agreed curvilinear structure out there in time ... Then, if the "GEFs" signal is wrong, ...gee, they all go down together .. .ha. Or not ... The problem with 'spread' is that they could all correct unilaterally high - it doesn't seem likely .. being at the business end of an SSW but I'm getting precariously close to throwing hands because there really is an incredibly bad correlation breakdown as though the anomaly inmates are completely controlling the asylum over the last couple of years... It's been plaguing... it's a bit of abstraction, but I've definitely noticed that relative to all indicators, the results have been negative or distracting. That may just be a gestalt we're going through . Will and I were wondering back in November if this would be one of those years where we end up colder relative to all signals ... it seems that's taken place with Dec still only putting up click and half positive departures... yet, amid that bias, it rains twice as much above the 40th latitudes - There's another definition for gestalt of that nature: Kosmic Dildo. ...no need to really go out of the way in creative prose to impress what that means ... must people intuitively know. joking but we'll see...

I guess a reasonable correction for this stuff might be just to keep the wave open ... If it needs to be potent it can be. I've seen flat-wave vmaxes with some 45 units, and 120 kts in the wind barbs ... Those are cool systems ... NJ Model bombs typically come open wave potency ... 1987 November

06z GFS does, however, show a more multi-dimensional negative interference evolution between the OV/MA/...SE regions... It tries to do the old western end of SPV snip-off subsume phase, but in an unusually narrow corridor of latitude ...like only 15 deg worth... Of course it fails ...and the southerly component is mechanically forced to speed right by it...

Funny ... I didn't think the nuances of those runs ( GFS mainly...) made them all that great. I've noticed this about the GFS operational guidance in the past..though. When the 500 mb geopotential/vorticity evolutions look bad, the surface evolution looks surprising favorable... Then, we see some "improvements" at 500 mb and the storm ends up the St Lawrence seaway with a labored pallid commitment to secondary and kitchen sink ptyped. re 168 - 192: The irony is that the 500 mb may not be as favorable as it first appeals. The Euro and the GFS's 00z operational depictions look remarkably similar for D7 to 8 - that in itself is good. But one such nuance about the flow, however, is that the heights in the SE look too high to allow that evolution to verify. Strains believability that it would take 18 hours to close off a circulation over New England with heights over Miami nearing 590 and 50 kts of geostrophic wind blasting over through the TV. It's almost like these models tend to fail some when it comes to factoring the super-synoptic to regular synoptic scaled interference schemes. Because that SE ridge is still there ...and it's being compressed, which means the wind field speeds up ...such that anything like a local S/W wind max that tries to ride either through, or over the top, is not likely to conserve enough mechanics to close off - in fact, ...the opposite, and lose some/shear ...tending to remain open wave structured. Yet the models do this in the mid and extended range a lot... interesting Edit ... hm... the balance wind is really 35 kt ~ prior to the S/W feed from the west so.. borderline.

Oh, I suggest so ... I mean, I won't speak/claim to the magnitudes... but the gist of the circulation morphology fits.

I know huh.. again, I'm curious what the umbrella appeal of the EPS is ... whether there is a broader systemic change afoot or if that is all just a transient mode while this bomb spins down. I'm tentatively thinking it is ... because we have all the other arguments in play but ... heh. Remember how we used to call anything with Euro genetics as "dr no" -

Oh, sorry Nick.. I thought you were NS ... NF though ... Yeah if taking the Euro verbatim that low collocates, huh - but man, just to the west, that is an insane CCB also apparently enhanced by pure pressure gradient ...

wow ... I can't wait - ...the EPS might be interesting. although mm the oper. may leap on that by a bit.. I bet the oper. shows the pattern flux and then the EPS sort of needs more to swing momentum

it's got the rudimentary SPV near 60/90 with down stream rather abrupt onset NAO block ... that's clearly PV stressing causing that - no question This is coalescing around the idea of a more abrupt "detection" usurping the previous dynamic. ... fun words for more a sudden onset pattern change (perhaps..) I mean no promises... It's an idea -

That Euro is a whip run folks! hells yes it is -

Euro's out to hour 168 at the free sites and I'm liking the height falls NE of Hawaii

Seein' as Will mentioned the NAM model ( ..yeah, it's his fault..) the GGEM flips cat paws over to a light to moderate burst of snow thursday morning. funny also - it got really close to flipping NW zones over to a burst overnight Saturday with that now defunct system right after. Hints at N-stream injection - What's interesting about that ... looking now at the 12z Euro for that matter... boy, both models wind that into a house-sucker bomb for the NS.. Nick would enjoy 80 km routine wind gust in suffocating cryo dust in that solution. It's just not "in" our backyards people ... but the storm its self just rubbed us the wrong way by lucking it 300 mile down stream. Kind of goes with the +1 over none December so heh -

Yup that's what I mean by 'there it is' It's definitely early ... but, ironically we were just talkin' 'bout that earlier, how things my change rather soon. we'll see...

oh the cold is comin' ... in so much as it will... It's really a 50s to 30s version because of the baser canvased above normal pattern ... as opposed to perhaps where this would more typically be 40 to 20.

... in the meantime, let's give the warm/fair weather enthusiasts their props - Today is one insane d-sloper dandy. Absolutely stunning out there ... This is a typical post the lead side chill scoured out by cyclone mechanics. The backside CAA is lagged ...which is then augmented further by kadabatic warming flow. When it clears like this with full sun ...even in the solar nadir time of years this can overperform and really polish gem afternoons.

There it is...

Yeah... it's certainly related ... you've just echoed some of my own sentiments above. The AO could flip negative but ... if the Pacific is out of sync relative to ideal for us... then our vortex member post the split may be comparatively weak.... Eurasia goes syrup cold. But ...just the same, it's not fixed ... It could start out that way...then break favorably during the total duration of block tendency.. Just sort of means we have to wait our turn. If folks care to look .... there is a new warm intrusion showing up in the GEFs product in the 1 to 10 hPa sigma levels ... out around D9. Some of those GEFs members have been indicating more easterly anomalies persisting along and N of the 60th parallel in the PV - they may be onto something? If so, it would likely indicate Wave 2 breaks and so forth with a migratory SPVs post any alignment of initial split features. In other words, where ever the first nodal vortexes find a home may be transient.

The downward propagation is/was a question no one was evading, and in fact ... some of us even hammered that requirement for the AO correlations to the point of cephalic pressure... Much of what is in discussion is predicated on that being the case - But just to be clear, the "NAM" IS the Arctic Oscillation ... and it doesn't lead the SSW/downwelling phenomenon ... In present context, it is a result - you seem to have it backward. The "-NAM" is a scalar measurement, a RESULT of that coupling taking place... So...fyi general reader: there is no predictive bases for saying that won't happen because it happens to be positive as we type.

Yup... basically paraphrasing my New Year's morning gift to all - a popsycle headache It could simply be a matter of detection - In a sense the GEFs system "might" be adept at doing that, if perhaps more readily? It's a question - not a statement of fact. ... But, given the philosophy behind the "Global Forecast System" - it may be a mere coincidence of naming convention but that 'sounds' like an attempt at a whole-scale integral. The Euro is in fact (duh) a "Global" numerical model system too, just that obviously we cannot be certain what real scaffold of their model fields is from here.

Fwiw - the CPC AO recently updated this morning and indicates most members falling > 0 SD by the end of week 1 ... continuing to descend into week 2 ... Not sure what that source is for that graphic, but it might be related to that bifurcating structure there... One aspect I'd like to bring to folks' attention ... a descending AO is good on paper ... not so much in practice if there are other factors interfering. Namely ... should the general circulation structures over this side of the Hemisphere align in favorable or unfavorable constructs for actually delivering cold over the N/A continent. We've seen -AOs in the past ... concomitant blocking into middle latitudes happen to situate favorable for Eurasia ... When those took place, -45 F headlines out of Moscow are seen during 45 F mornings over here. That happened in 2007 ... S of the 55th parallel over North America was basking in hatred with 59 F high temperatures in Tower Minnesota and fully thawed Earth from the lower Manitoba plains to northern Maine through December... The AO crashed in the first week of January, but it really took until almost the 20th of the month before the roulette wheel wound around and set up a pattern conducive to deliver cold here. It did ...and February saved that winter with a couple of decent events toward/for winter enthusiasts. The point of this is, the AO is half of it... we need to have the relay as well. Which is why one should be worried about the Pacific ... I am still not abundantly certain whether that west-north-northeast Pacific are going to be entering a favorable AA, or unfavorable AB phase (the former correlates with -NP/-EPO). The primary cold loading pattern over N/A comes from variations of that ... Typically, I would just rely upon the CDC 'public' products with their WPO and EPO but ... with the appropriations breakdown and the CDC being shut down for business... I don't know of any ancillary sources to find those indexes. If the WPO is positive leading the MJO --> phase 7-8-1-2 ...the MJO's ability to modulate the pattern could remain in a destructive wave interference throughout that migration ... and vice versa. I've noticed that the absurdly powerful GEFs MJO mean has been weakening in the last couple ...few days. About five days ago, CPC really soared that curve (as we all know..) to the edge of the WH diagram space. As of this morning, it looks more sensibly strong if not pedestrian in magnitude...as well, the end data points are picking up sites into phase 7. The fact that curve is weakening prior to the wave actually progressing that far ... indicates that the Pacific "might" indeed already be less in sync/breaking down. The operational guidance versions haven't changed. They don't look or even hint as of the overnight runs ... of really sniffing much of this out. I'm not sure if the following comment has much operational merit but ... I wonder if this may materialize in a more coherent pattern change all at once ...quick fashion. We'll be living our lives in silent frustration and than all of sudden we're looking at monitors and portable devices and it simply can't be true ... Then of course we have wade through all the defensive posturing by those who in reality only suppress their own giddiness. So the short version? (... haha, made you read)... Despite the less than savory tenor of the operational runs, the GEFs -based teleconnectors flag changes for the winter enthusiasm. Again, EPS notwithstanding...