Typhoon Tip

Sometimes ... the flow relaxes a bit with fresh cold still in place, and then the S/Ws embedded ( not too dissimilar to this chart you provided actually ..) can go on to generate slower moving deeper events because less of their own mechanics are getting absorbed by compression/velocity...yadda yadda. I was dancing around with the same idea on the 00z run, too.. That one sort of has 'the look' of one lead deep zipper, then a follow-up slower evolving deal.

Yeah, the bigger signal still looms for mid month ... Hard to say if that's this Euro solution as an early albeit gross detection of that potential.

Well, in any case, it's p-type distribution looks unbalanced to me given the general synoptic appeal ( 12z run ); it's extending the liquid too far N into bl resistance in interior zones down here... But, admittedly, some of that is based upon experience with flat waves running underneath nascent ( relatively new ...) polar air masses, as expecting hygroscopic feedback. However it is we get there... imho if the QPF layout took place, my hunch is the rain/snow line is compressed farther south. 'Course, getting the run to verify the other features is entirely a different task -

nah... The grounds too warm people -

Too bad this thing can't slow down 6 hours... Both the GGEM and Euro stem-wound this thing in a real hurry as it runs up east of Boston Light .

Oh is that case now... Yeah take your word for it - I just remember discussion over the years related to that model over doing warmth on cold sides of cyclones. Perhaps that's different now.

You can pretty half those numbers with these snow products

If you factor for the GGEM's robust warm lower troposphere bias that's probably more snow than folks think in that solution... but still rain for the southern half of CT/RI .. it's a more of compressing p-type transition axis

84 hour NAM is blossoming a baroclinic leaf along a shallow corridor OV-NE ... ( heh, it's somethin' ) not for not, it came in noticeable more amped 72+ hours through the western Lakes.

it's a tedious nerdiness but I'm always curious when that first pond edge ice forms ...None as of this morning leaving town at dawn, but that was our third morning 25 to 28 F, so despite climbing to the upper 40s or lower 50s by day, with the low sun angles and the longer nights ... I could see us start rimming the ponds soon.

If there is one, keep in mind that there is a coherent time-lag in the statistical correlation. Any subsequent forcing on the Arctic Oscillation lags by as much as 20 to 30 days. Few know this, or, demonstrate very readily via turns of phrase and deliveries of prose where they've beautifully ( otherwise ) fused the sudden stratospheric warming sciences into their speculative, and I'm like " ...you do realize the effects of SSW are outside your forecast range, right?." There is a particularity that needs to be observed, else ... whatever is being observed is more likely to fail coherent forcing on the AO outside of coincident index numerology. The warm plume has to propagate downward in time ( i.e., 'downwelling' ). In every case of SSW graphical layout back to 1979, this downward motion appears to 'spiral' away from a central axial point that begins near the axis of PV rotation, at a very high beginning SIGMA level - typically between 5 and 30 hPa. As it descends, it will first appear to weaken, before the next node comes in warmer, then fades slightly ... then warmer, each node gaining x-coordinate distance upon each emergence. That growth in the x-coordinate is a representation of gaining distance from the axis of rotation. Notice the ending node is almost faded/indistinquishable in anomaly relative to the surrounding features of the ambient field ( nearing 150 hPa SIGMA) there bottom right along the nodal curve. That is tropopausal mechanical absorption/ increasing stabilization and suppression of the depths ensues, and that weakens the PV ... "pancaking" and blocking in the mid and upper troposphere ignites. This entire translation of events, as you can see took ~ from Jan 15th to the end of February ... and we can see in this case a very clear and coherent AO correlation taking place: 2013 -0.610 -1.007 -3.185 0.322 0.494 0.549 -0.011 0.154 -0.461 0.263 2.029 1.475 ... Bold is March. SSW don't really value-add like the popular mantra of the day has it in their mind(s) and bandy about. If one did take place in the last week of this month... We may be hearing about an AO response some time after Christmas.. which is fine. But, I also offer that this particular year we may not have much trouble with AO being negative, so it could be lost in the din of a -AO complexion hemisphere anyway.

The signal at mid month is legit. The Euro run itself obviously is not - not yet anyway. But, the fact that there is something situated out there in that particular spacial-temporal range is what's paramount there, and could very well be the initial distantly distorted vision in models. A few individual GFS members are enhancing the N flow/loading into mid latitudes along with a deep nadir in the heights nearing mid month, but from this range that can mean everything from a dry albeit deep cold wave ...to perhaps including a pattern entry event. The concepts/previous discussion are still in play. Overnight AO wow!

There's a much louder signal nearing the 15th of the month coming out of the American cluster for some form of larger scale index-related instability/correction event across the mid latitude of the continent... The PNA is heading into a mode reversal, while the on-going -EPO resists change ( and is in fact is anchor through the WPO! ), is an implication for a highly sloped western Canadia flow nearing the mid month time frame - This is the ensemble derived teleconnectors. The operational guidance may or may not reflect that at this time or a given run. Be that as it may this is a multi agency, multiple run signal. CDC is in fact a screaming winter signal for North America and has been been since mid last week landing on the ides of the month; this last evenings was the most spectacular, with/when wpo-epo arc are in sync signals a whopper AB phase of the Pac circulation, which is a very high correlation to/for deep layer N conveyor and cold loading into N. America. The CPC rendition of the PNA is not quite as robust ...however, shows a tightly clustered mean rising from -2 SD to neutral - certainly qualifies a mode change in the positive direction. I'd suggest be looking out for something a bit more than a needle threader ... I even see signs that the local HC is "deflated" a bit then with ambient heights receded by 4 to 6 dm from the western Gulf to Bermuda after the 10th in some ensemble... that's a table set in my estimating for back off the larger toward smaller scale mechanical interference by way of reducing some of the velocity surplus. Time will tell on that... It's an exciting November folks. We haven't seen one of these in a while... No guarantee that we will get our cinema, no, but... we have 'good problems' as storm enthusiasts for the time being.

Total smear out is certainly still possible ...

I have a question for folks .. heh. Suppose the GGEM goes on and verifies even say 80th percentile ... we do realize, it had this almost identical solution like two days ago when nothing..not even tea-leafs it. And summarily the chortles and castigation "defensively" turned thread pages ... Shouldn't that mean that the GGEM gets the credit for first sniffing this out? God that'd be so delicious; please make that happen so that we can have it do the same thing five days before xmass and everyone has to think about this one -

Again... there was some sneaky mechanics embedded in that 00z GGEM solution that was blooming some impressive QPF in CT-RI-SE Ma despite the primarily ANA characteristic synoptic evolution. You could tell, it wouldn't take much for this model to torque things up a bit. It's like symbolically this type of solution was in there but being capped before -

Yeah, I don't have access to any numbers either.

than what's the purpose of saying in the first place! don't bother -

Not to be a douche but ... is this street cred, or empirical scoring based. I'm not expecting much more than the formal in any social media platform regardless of creed, race concept or folly to be blunt; but no one should take that personally either. But, we hear this mantra about model a, b, and c, and I've frankly, just accept it cause 'every thinks it' - I hate that. I've found there are a few certain scenarios where any one of them might do particularly well ... and auto-86ing based on rep is kind of playground bullying in a way. ha

I'm inclined to think it could be decent - For me personally, I felt an early loaded winter was possible - more so than background probabilities, year-to-year. When seeing the last month play out where the vagaries of all have wended us into a colder than normal pattern in general, that lends; it seems it might be deeper rooted, and thus more than a mere ephemeral pattern look. That could certainly still happen, and we Indian Summer out there beyond week 2...but I suspect the mode of the hemisphere supports this ( again ) such that it might be less likely; but even if that were to occur, we'd probably be looking at down the barrel of a reloaded pattern circa those extendeds. Of course, what does early loaded really mean... I think of it as sustaining enough BN to get a snow pack ... Heh, as an aside, we could be in a pattern that 20 years ago would do the trick, but it's harder to offset the big CC monster these present years relative to the same looks from say ... 1995 ... So perhaps the definition of an early loaded winter needs to shift a little to be fair. Ha.. meaningless metric but interesting anyway.

There is very little scientific or predictive insight likely to be gained from such considerations - almost none. Last year has zero bearing on this next two weeks.

Yeah..that's exactly where I was going with the previous, " As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered "... blah blah... Well, it's progress. Hey, did you apply/test your algorithm during that WCB wind event the other day? I was curious how that thing would work in a better mixed quasi barotropic air mass -

This is true ... I mean, not that I was questioning you or anything, just offering that I read the PDF prior to the release and that was clearly stated, that - perhaps beyond the one metric you mentioned - the model was supposed to at least 'not be worse' - which obviously means breaking even. It's interesting operational philosophy there in that ... why? I suspect it's 'platform' -related? As in, they do have improved versions but somehow need that one incrementally layered. Spit-ballin' there.

Upstate NY-VT/N NH 18" on that 00z ICON ...wow. 06z was tamer and well... if one is a SNE enthusiast, that might be your better run

Yeah, I believe you and I discussed this a bit over a month ago regarding the "thermal residence/memory" - this year seemed to smack of some of that if you recall, in that there was a late 'time-relative' occurrence of the 2019 numbers slipping lower than 2012 post the annual nadir. It's always nice when we see other sources corroborating our own observations.