Typhoon Tip

I did ...and I admitted that and spoke at length about it yesterday what's the point ? Your response is out of line relative to what I was talking about - clearly you got other agenda ... because you're not even responding to the facets I was tongue-in-cheeking about. Look, I don't care about your thread and your reputation? That kind of celebrity policing you've always engaged in is pretty laughable and at times tedious and a bore

Ha ha! perfect ... and perfectly predicable.

Can't wait 'till the after glow of this thing wears off and this thread unpins and fades - don't you ever just get tired of a storm? I have to admit, sometimes I encounter this phenomenon ( personally ) even before the first flakes start falling...when from inception and conceptualization in the tele's, to materialization throughout the modeling and internet fights that may very well precipitate out of that with greater QPF than the storm actually even goes on to do itself, ...to finally having whatever it turns out actually take place ... By the time we get there, the whole of thing may be as much as two weeks in some cases - particularly in some rare times when the over-arcing physical prominence is so foreboding in the atmosphere, ...the attributes are picked up exceptionally early. I'm just done after two weeks haha. Like, sometimes truth be told ..I'm off to looking at the models three days before the storm, ...for something...anything afterward other than the f'ing storm at hand because it's become so ad nauseam. This thing started entering that phase of 'jesus - enough is enough already' about three two days ago

Heh... it depends on what scale and persnickety focus one wants to beady-eyed obsess over with an electron tunneling microscope because every f'ing low there ever was on the surface of the planet has at some point along the Norwegian model cycling ... ephemerally supported some for or another of a meso-micro to meso or meso-beta scaled secondary or tertiary tendency to spin independently... That's not the same thing compared to what I saw in the models, with tropical f'um cyclones in orbit around that thing. Let's be fair... some people want some people to be wrong more so than they really care about the science of the thing. But...such is life and times in the shenanigans of the razor sharp cutting intellectual and objectively fair analysis of the social-mediasphere so what does one expect -

I'm fed up with NGRID ... they got this region of society by the ballz and know it, and act like it... The instant you are 30 seconds late on a bill their harangue kicks in like your dollars keeps the gears of society lit up ... with dire warnings of service interruption... but if you over pay you don't hear a goddamn thing. A petty greed tact that I might be willing to overlook if they wouldn't randomly turn off the power and/or just fail to maintain the grid in general so often. It's complete monopolistic lording and squeezing pennies and they don't do shit but distribute - badly at that. Government? Ps fk man...they're complicit probably.. Anyway, I found this and thought some might find it interesting.. This was the GFS ensembles from - I think - 12z four days ago... I had cut this out for this thread so it's probably in here many pages ago anyway, but I thought was cool to see how far E the mean was ...some 500 km of where it ended up or more. I recall this was the closest pass the mean made at the time/run too. So probably comparable to time interval this error even ballooned some.. Let's try and keep this in mind when a blizzard bomb is scheduled to just miss a month from now

This particular chart looks like a repro of the PNAP base-line pattern. ( perennial north-american pattern ). It's basically just a mass-balanced product, reflecting the winds' bowing over the terrain of the west and then coupled attempting in the east - So perhaps the ECM "series" ( not sure how this is derived ) just happens to mimic that - that'd be amazing. Otherwise, "if" it's just averaging a blizzard ensemble looks than it becomes less than meaningfully predictive to me. But again ...how is this product derived ? Funny, with ensembles there's that rub - one of them may be exactly right. Also, is there a polar stereographic depiction from the Euro seasonal?

This graph inspires some speculative ideas ... Like, seeing the present curve cross the 2012, per date, means we are setting a time-relative record... so that much is more empirical. I still think it interesting... how it's a under-the-radar achievement. Don and I discussed this a month or so ago, how that behavior in its self is probably just as important as the actual bottom of the curve. But the other more speculative wonder is whether the onsetting solar minimum, together with black-body feed-backs, could have something to do with that nadir falling shy of 2012. The present heavily advertised 'super minimum' was not yet that far along in 2012, so this year's total insolation might be some critical fraction less than 2012 ... less implying less melt now. Again... speculation .. but, melt temperature for sea-ice is a discrete temperature ... It's not like oh, it's 3 warmer but it doesn't feel like a melt day.. heh. At the point of seasonal loss, that temperature is being influenced very delicately by outside influence, wither it is quantum sufficient in energy to flip phases - and not all those influence may be Terrestrial in origin. There are other factors that are more important, though ( probably ). Like days with cloud cover/increased albedo not allowing as much solar energy reaching the darkening sea/ice interface... Or just the vagaries of the wind and weather patterns happened to chance 2012 with more delivery long-wave radiation air masses to/at high latitudes... or this, or that ... and on and so on. I guess at the end the day, it really comes down to the fact that although that gap looks pretty coherent there in that graph, we're really talking about almost imperceptible variations from the orbital polar stereographic view.

I did clearly state yesterday that would be the case ... re the coastal concern. Steve... I have lived withing surf-sound of the sea-shore ( say that 10 times fast ) before... I am climate savvy in both worlds, and have written well-received descriptive prosaic works that compare/contrast the culture and setting disparities between the two. But, that is the problem.. one is only as good as their last work in our culture, and since I'm disgruntled and full of snark shit these days... that's all that people read and remember now hahaha But seriously, the 'weird' thing Will mentions cannot be underscored enough. It's something about this I mentioned a couple three days ago ... how unilaterally the model(s) was/were indicating a truck load of mid level kinematics ...unbalanced by virtually zippo low level thickness gradient across the region. It was extreme in that idiosyncrasy .. to have that much mechanical power disking over top of an incipid surface layout. It may be counter intuitive ...but when it's cold in ALB but warm in ACK ..that horizontal difference means there is stronger frontogenic tendency between... certainly an elevated frontal slope escaping sky-ward with a steeply inclined upward slope; whereby, as DPVA and associated Q-G forcing moves along that sloped boundary ( 2005 Dec ), the inflow jets/restoring motion is thus forced upright very proficiently adding to and exacerbating the UVM.. That draws the deepening potential closer to the surface ... Sorry for that - it's for the general reader...But the point is, this system was missing the critical component layout ... Man, if there was cold air available to this sucker it REALLY would have been wound up like a top! Probably would have been 964 mb over ISP, with 850 -700 mb UVM so extreme that concomitant height falls would have drawn the total tropospheric depth SE toward that location and then we really would have had some unbelievable momentum issues and something historically profiling overall... This basically maxed out what mid levels can do in the absence of surface parameterization - What I was really wrong about was the translation speed of this system. I think it is probably more a testament to its compensating mechanical power? It was enough so to quasi cut it off from the flow at least transiently, and thus resist the ambient faster flow over all. I kinda sorta mist that and figured the faster stuff would 'foist' this up toward down East Maine and NS more so than its stall point turned out to be, which was closer to southern NH. Interest.. But I am highly confident a weaker mechanized system would have carried about NE This turned out pretty close to what I visualized. It was pedestrian for 80some % of the region or more, but relative extremeness relegated to shore zones - which may or may not be usefully compared to other events in the past that struck those regions.

Ah I dunno ... maybe because there are zero, 1::1 cause of/and effect relationships in a three dimensional fluid medium that is physically influenced by uncountable factors? Thus, one that is by definition interspersed by moments of spontaneity borne of fractals --> giving rise at times to faux emerging comparable events, at other times ... seemingly well behaved ? You know, chaos theory - That would be my first guess. Also, these larger planet-scaled observed(ing) changes that are becoming ever more coherent, may also not be a readily observable at all times in the past - when in a changing frequency, that immediately infers that whatever is one is looking for would/might be harder when peering backward along that slope. Also, it is not, "how do you explain" ? This isn't just me making supposition ( just in case ). I'm actually thrilled that these concerns I began voicing ten years ago, are now being papered and peer reviewed and noted at/among agencies, unaffiliated to me, out there in the greater ambit of those that actually matter. It shows I was ahead of the game and formulated cogent ideas on the direction of the climate, a long while ago. Heh. It kind of reminds me of that scene on the dock in "Jaws" 1975. Dr. Hooper was trying to explain over the din of the yoke's that they probably did not actually catch the man-eating Carcharias Carcharodon of their exulted hootin' and hollerin.' He's suddenly finds himself in a scenario where he has to back slowly away from their vitriol as he mutters, "... And it's not something I wanna lose my life over..." Threatening folks with reduction of winter will get one thrown into a harbor .. I'm being tongue-in-cheek there of course.. but it does seem to piss people off... I mean I don't even think it is directed at me, personally. See... we run our own brand of climate denial in here ( I've noticed). Depending upon the chosen contexts we are open to engage in the suggestion of it, and may even willingly speak in dire terms ... Until dimming the prospects of winter is detected in distant orbit. Look out. As tho to accept that means accepting it may dwindle snow/and/or winter-related drama and allure in general ... I got news for us all. It will. It's a matter of time. Oh the usual defensive mantra immediate precipitates "..yeah, but not in our life-time," or that cherry picked study that convincingly sounds like its all a 100 years off. Whatever. That may be true - sort of. But it's sorta not, too. Because the expanded Hadley Cell stuff, and quickening flow rates, all of that.. is not just me? It has been noted by NCEP, and is also empirical too ...and is a way in which CC is changing things within our lifetime. Hello - Fearing sounding like a hypocrite... I do personally think that we can get punishingly "good" winters for an interim ... as well, "bad" winters, both occurring in their own rites. And that mid latitudes losing winters thru CC is an unknown numbers of years off, if not decade(s).. But, the impetus there is who knows when synergistic thresholds - or those that are kind of forced to happen in jolts do to competing forcing coming into constructive interference and so forth .. - may "snap" a region or greater into new paradigms. Or if it just gradually sneaks up and suddenly Boston puts up it's first 0" snow year and everyone cobbles together this brilliant master work explaining - of course - why it could have happened anyway, that in reality is a bargaining ploy. We are already seeing winters be affected/effected though.

Mm ...sounds like some storm-interpretive 'over-selling' going on in here, too... The most exciting aspect about this, relative to our "storm climatology," is that it happened at all. The run up to this thing was uniquely prepping the locals for histrionics because it's like the first 90 F day in June ? It seems reDICulously hot? Same affect. It came upon the region during an otherwise dearth of activity, a time in which folks had gotten a bit stirred by withdrawal symptoms ( kidding there...) But either way, a tad anxious for anything at all to happen - Look, we've had big rain and/or wind events in storms of lore and past. Plenty that exceeded this thing's impact and how many of them can one name ? Damage is too sporadic and within expectations for an average New England blow. I'll let all the final reports wonder in before making a final assessment but this event is not that memorable to me, not between northern and central Mass. Also - imho - the low pressure descended to 973 mb over SW NH is a record: that is more a function of 'first time' in that location - and has to be a spatial anomaly more than anything else.. because there are many 970 mb lows in CT/RI and eastern MA in the records... Because of that spatial idiosyncrasy, that doesn't really reflect any enormity of the cyclone its self - so using that to justify this as something more I don't believe is entirely, objectively fair. I'll be fair and say it was more than completely uninspired, insipid and dull - which is the formal-esque definition of pedestrian.. but heh.. not by much when comparing it to everything I've ever experienced between Chicago and Maine.

Told ya

watch for Opal

Yeah ...thunder

Interesting how the Euro has the low over southern VT at 12z tomorrow ..

it's a good question. I'm not personally aware of any specific tech that's developed the specifically progs that kind of phenomenon, but there are recognizable attributes/synoptics that portend. Typically, neggie tilt with extreme VV peeling NW around a deep mid level height fall ...which, heh, seems similar to this don't it - But, they don't all do it.. And, the isollabaric wind acceleration in this may be potent and could mimic that/and/or make it difficult to separate the two. Edmond Fitzgerald 1975 bomb over Lake superior and more recently, the 2005 Dec even that strafed the south coast ...are both very good examples of stratospheric entrainment

there's a signal CB with it's anvil rocketing due east

Nice ribbon on radar associated with the front .. W. PA/W. VA

This may calve off a chunk of my street cred for advancing this, but that ICON solution looks the best to me right now for just the general overview. I mean.. if not including the tedious, electron tunneling microscopy for the purpose of 'carpet surfing' crack nuggets of excitement that we do with these wind-product this and QPF special studies that.. Just the general. The surface pressure and QPF layouts, when looking at the 500H evolution and balancing in the conceptual layout of the general mass-fields involved, appear on point. The secondary detonation/zygote takes place between 18 and 00z over NE VA and then gets sucked up the coastal Plain, then ends up passing over western LI into CT is highly acceptable to me with almost no boundary layer resistance to "tilt" the vortex - I mentioned this earlier about the low moving quicker than normal toward Q-G forcing collocation. I also like the model not falling for the tempting convection potential arcing seaward over the Gulf Stream that the NAM and even the Euro has been fiddling around with using to the change the orbit of Jupiter. It has a triple point - sort of - reflection out there as this thing is cutting toward NH and that's probably closer to reality in my mind. You know... there's an upshot here. This is a great preseason game for ginning up and dusting off the assessment/diagnostic acumen for later on.

Just curious other's opinions ... is that similar to 1993-1994? I remember that season's core cold months as crushingly +NAO much of the time... Well, I'm not sure if it was "crushing" in terms of magnitude, or if it was circumstantially unusual placement of anomalies?? But either way, the result was that the vortex over NE Canada/D. Straight seemed to grow so magnificently that it backed SW and engulfed the Lakes-OV and NE regions, and we "suffered"/"rejoiced" ( depending on one's preference) for it from roughly Christmas through early February. Modified polar-arctic air mass was only interrupted by overrunning events. It wasn't a bad scenario to be in ... It created interesting consequences. For one, OES became an actual seasonal total factor along the coast/shore zones... I think SW suburbs of Boston actually went upper 90's totals and Logan did fantastic that year. I think we were 70s to 80s in totals out my way in Acton/Middlesex Co. Anyway, the idea there is that confluence was a near permanent fixture from the N. Lakes over Ontario, where the vortex'es SW arc was seemingly perpetually impinging upon the sub-polar jet arriving from the MS Valley...It tended to shear out systems but not before vestigial overrunning shredded IP/snow events. It was a 4-8" blitz criege that lasted about 8 weeks. Seemed every 3 days... 5.3" I'm pretty sure Jerry and Steve have reminisced that season in abundance. Heh. Also, what's the skill on these various sources/seasonal outlooks? Like, is Euro better than Ukment better than GONAPS better than Cantmodelanian better than GoFurSelf ...? I don't have a lot of faith in those types of things. I personally still feel that this year will be more EPO ( AO/NAO ) controlled for temperature distribution, and that when modulation occurs back warmer those episodes might be rather impressive, if ephemeral, because of the Hadley Cell invasion into the mid latitudes stuff. In other words, gradient is the new life but let's not go where there be dragons

As was advertised, discussed at length ...all week, limited surface to 800 mb thickness gradients ( laterally ) through New England and nearby coastal waters ( i.e., weak surface frontal structures ) means any surface low will quickly move toward a collocation with the better Q-G forcing at mid levels. There's a lack of antecedent cold air in place. That's why we are seeing these more recent models runs hint more toward gobbling up the secondary low they ( particularly the Euro) develop between PHL and NYC, and then more cohesively focusing a track through CT. This then goes on to a nadir somewhere between there and coastal Maine or thereabouts, end 24 hours, at which point this is already filling... There may be smaller gyres extending SE of that overall structural migration, and I feel reasonably confident that some of these guidance types have been hyper focused on those satellite features - probably based in no small part on the foresaid homogenized lower thickness layout out.. The next physics in the basket defaults to convection based upon those model's specific "Klein and Frisk" sequencing or whatever in the hell it's called that makes them bad for extratropical management... Anyway, this synoptic evolution is not without impacts. The extent is up for grabs. There's a lot of mid level dynamics with this thing as we're all aware...and when we start fiddling with those scenarios ... strange things happen sometimes. I could see a couple of bands of thunderstorms east of the low, arcing up from eastern CT/across much of Mass with an ESE wind underneath and someone over SE Mass getting an EOF spinner out of this... It's not likely, no..but there are possibilities in the fray of this thing that are > than we may think. Also, if a LLJ/inflow core gets into the 925 mb level, neutral buoyancy or even somewhat unstable SST to air along the shore might transfer some of that down - but that's less having to do with surface pg.. For me in particular, I still suggest that the strongest wind impact may be felt in the back side across much of the region. I don't believe based on recent Euro trends ( a very dependable guidance source inside of 3 day leads ) that a stinger is likely to occur, but.. in the spirit of fairness, the low appears to go through some particular mid level VV saturation somewhere between HFD to PWM; folding could be problem S of the Pike for time... But, without that .. this event's back side has very good momentum transfer in CAA kinematics. The other thing about this that isn't necessarily very easy to see, is that model consensus overall has pressure falling "AS" the low moves in. It seems the d(pressure) is taking place at a similar rapidity to the motion of the storm itself. That's an offset where storms motion compensating the restoring forcing, so the wind response may end up less on the front side than the individual pressure contoured charts would readily suggest. This may be less so on the coast, and more pronounced inland. I've seen this hundreds of times. Squeezed contours with fast cloud motion and trees are barely moving insland, while there's power outages in Plymouth. But, ...then the low moves past, and all the deep pressure tries to fill from two overlapping sources: Low moving away = delta(pressure rise) and the isollabric vector looks impressive in this to me; cold mid levels coming into the underbelly of this with temps in the 40s and 50s is an unstably lapse rate scenario. For all this, I would not be surprised if the strongest winds are not on the front side. Creek flooder too -

Is anybody have access to the cyclones phase diagrams on this guy?

As I was just discussing with Wiz' ... I'm thinking more along the lines of elevated convection with sporadic lightning ... I wasn't going "damaging" adjectives my self.

I'm not talking about crispy CB's rollin' out under the tropopause next to clear air side sun on a hot late afternoon... I'm talking sheet lightning and occasional thunder... and heavier convective elements contained (with regional LI's nearing 0 there's instability off the deck) and those extreme height falls while the lower thickness are still supporting 50 F, there's possibility for mixing vertically from that alone - I'd think for the tree-leaner mongering folks might be interested in that sort of thing...

It's funny ..when I know I'm making a more profound insightful weather post, I get 0 "likes" but when I say anything like "big wind" or "snow" even accidentally ... I get three likes and two thankyou yanks. Again...why isn't anyone mentioning thunderstorms in this thing?

Traditionalism speaking but ... it's been awhile since we've had a sold cold rain, autumn spin up - like...years actually. When I was growing up in the region through the ..eh hm, latter part of last century, there was always a wind swept cold rain nor'easter somewhere along the ides of autumn. They were like the season's bar mitzvah - afterward the season is accountable for its own action, haha. But..sort of the unofficial kick off ceremonial rite of passage .. Or how about a shot across the bow storm. And they were always in October, too. I've thought of this month as being remarkably ... unremarkable. Like a prototypical October - to me it seems fitting symbolically anyway, that we're setting this up.