Typhoon Tip

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Will's fire hose into eastern mass appears like it's either trying to get going, or ...is just a weak version of one. But those are some impressive embedded echoes over interior SE zones and as the snow line is collapsing as we speak, that might get 'flashy' in there. That present band over southern NH actually looks OES ish

That's really neat looking on Rad and Sat this hour east of the Jersey coast. There's thunder there... and the expansion/cooling cloud shield over top immediately assumes a cylone curl, as though there is a tight internal cyclonic nucleus imploding there. Which, that's may be confirmed in surface/buoy PP obs.... Or, it could be more mid level - hard to say. But that's cool... Meanwhile, fire hose in NYS -

Presently there are heavy showers with thunder looking pixels popping off E of Jersey - hint hint...

I don't know who's said what or what was posted recently among too many pages ... but man, that 00z GFS surface evolution was a face smack for storm enthusiasts. How often does one see a 975 mb low stall collocated on top of Nantucket Island for like 9 to 12 hours, and have almost nothing put down on Earth to show for it, NW of the CC Canal ? Answer - it's like impossible. Yet, the GFS has no compunctions in attempting to sell that rarefied and particularly special kind of butt banging - But, in more rational terms ... I wonder if this first wave escaping seaward is taking too much moisture/baroclinic parameters with it relative to the GFS evolution. Seems a viable reason. In that paradigm, this thing is dynamically challenged do to our greed on the first wave - haha. So not so rational but that's funny... There is a reason we typically don't get "two" snow storms inside of 30 hours. I've seen it happen ... 1996 did that in December - or darn close. But this is no analog even remotely to that circumstance back whence, and what we do have is middling mid/U/A vestigial vortex moving along a favorable climate track ... with seemingly less left over from last night's 'wringing out' to work with... Such that QPF is challenged ? I almost wonder if there is a deformation band or two around that NW arc, possibly as far NW as mid western NH, but it's like transparent CB's in the summer. ...I mean, in deference to the GFS model run. Haven't seen any other guidance. The NAM is is a teaser -

Less consolidation with the first pulse/cyclone developing after a couple runs trying to move toward more... It appears it's reverted back to this one now eventually stripping away the baroclinic instability seaward and starving the mid and upper level mechanics once they arrive. May not be real - wonder if the 18z gets the full compliment of grid input, too.

2" in Ayer; uniform tiny aggregate snow at 1/2 mi vis. 28/27

That stuff on rad moving through CT this hour is either bright banding or someone is going to get walloped by a short duration stacking event.. That almost reminds me of the rad image the hour before the 0 visibility Dec 23, 1997 spread up over Worcester and Middlesex Co.

I would be leery of an ageo whiplash/flash if you are liquid now, yeah... I suspect if this consolidation trend continues though, this thing will transition into more a CCB and y'all down that way might get end gamed by that some -

Amazing so early in the year that the Euro gets us thru D7 protecting the ground snow after the fact, too... wow -

not really related to this storm but Wednesday looks WINDEXy during the day

Haha lol... Just gibbin ya shit... But seriously, I'm not sure that wind-up CCB stuff for early Tuesday will get that far back west. I mean it could - but right now it's not being modeled to do so. You should do fine prior to that tho.

Oh god ... now we gotta bring the dreaded B word into the fray

mm hm

Well... I feel vindicated... Consolidation is clearly happening on this Euro run folks. There's less two events, and more one event with perhaps a lull - if that? - as Will mentioned... And, the climo argument of ORH to SE NH is hugely demonstrative in this run as falling into line. Now...it won't happen -

Guys... these charts rarely verify - just wanna re-ignite the realization

Exactly - superb analysis.

Climo has best snow ORH - interior SE NH

are we still looking at two rounds ... or is this trying to consolidate -

Yeah, it does, doesn't it -

Yes to the first question ... sort of yes to the second ... As the season progresses the ocean cools off considerably at our latitude. Low 50s now may be 40 or even upper 30s at seasonal SST minimum ...usually late March or thereabouts. In fact, an ocean influence can even help a spring nor-easter find it's way down to wet snow, where contrasting to early season it is a detriment in that regard. However, this situation has other meteorological, along with what are termed "local studies" factors to consider. We get "coastal fronts" at times; this is a candidate for such a feature. The warm ocean ( relatively warmer...) air doesn't penetrate west of those boundaries, and there can be impressive temperature variations across just a few short miles on either side. Boston Common might be 44 F and misting/sheet rains and it's parachutes at 33 in Cambridge, and powdered snow up on Arlighton Heights... and even 50 F out at Logan Airport. We have a cold air mass entrenched across the area, and a high pressure banked into eastern Canada/Ontaria. This latter feature perpetually feeds cold into the coastal plain and that flow banks off the warm ocean air and the coastal frontal evolves... Cambridge is right on the fence... Coastal fronts can be aligned right over you... Sometimes west ... and other times, suppressed down toward SE zones.

You know what... we might actually be looking at a short window correction west after all... We've seen this countless times in the past. I mentioned this in that diatribe's ending thoughts, but the speculation is that this unusually large circulation size and fast mid and upper level wind speeds might be over -sensitively generating a lead wave too much in the guidance. Might be seeing that phasing out... The GFS still strips tho - but, we'll see how much that looks that way 18z and 00z ... etc..

So, naturally ... if this lead/#1 detonation is less effectively stripping the baroclinicity eastward, than a 2nd low could certainly evolve back closer to the coast.. Boy the 12z NAM narrowly misses Eastern Mass with choking snow. I know I'm convinced the more I look at this that I'm right about this tho. This lead gawking snow and early low sequencing is actually a detriment to what could be a better performance - in total. I mean, as modeled.... it's going to to be interesting to see what happens of all this. nice.. On Dec 2 ... fuggin early folks.

Yeah perhaps ... but, I should also be clear: what I mean is, "if" we end up with an initial/#1 coherently separate event, any 2nd one might end up E. I don't even know if these won't exactly consolidate - it's just a distraction/possibility to that needs to be considered is all ...

I haven't looked at that particular guidance as of late... not this morning either, so I'm not sure why that is there with that "bite" out of the QPF look. It doesn't make a lot of "spacial" reasoning sense, not when combining all guidance that I have seen, together with climatology and experience with coastals and closing mid level circulations off actually S of CT ... The 700 mb level has an axis S of both CT/RI so it's interesting that the NAM has had so much warm intrusion going on -... particularly considering the high in eastern Canada; not appreciably massive, no...but, 1020 and holding is certanly enough to continue to ageo the interior right down the CT valleys and probably up through the 850 mb either way, the whole duration to me. That's the conceptual 50,000 foot perspective from my chair on this.