Typhoon Tip

I realize this doesn't seem to resonate too well in this particular, internet social-media community but... I believe the warmer overall Terran atmosphere is possibly disrupting the correlations. I have noticed an ...albeit ostensible failure between event/phenomenon quotas that are more typically ensuing during/because of various ENSO states over the last ten years. That may not seem to be a large enough data set to really get one's knickers in a bunch. It's only tens years. But, let us not focus on that "ten year" time span; that is a ten years that happens to have a huge, packed set of expectation that did not appear to materialize, or if so ... did so in pallid fashion. Something is causing weaker responses ... And honestly that can be vetted further. I'm more at tacitly aware. The tenor of mass-media over those ten years may simply be not able to make money off that so being an enterprise they headline elsewhere... But, just the same, my attention is devoted, my nose into science sites and sources, regularly, that are referencing papered/reviewed works over the years, as well. See ... it goes like: those correlations are based upon results during different gradient-balancing(ed)-years. I've explained this in the past... I'm not sure folks really get what that means, ...But, a 30-year oceanic-atmospheric coupled data set are first, fixed scalar results (ENSO), back whence. The problem is ... then being used during a changing system - in physical terms "accelerating", i.e., not a system that is producing those scalars. While not a red flag necessarily ... certainly that should tilt up an eyebrow. Maybe these "modoki" this and uncharacteristic La Nina thats are just a demonstration of that "gap growing" disconnect. Most climate scientists, models, and the empirical data that supports the entire panoply of environmental monitoring ...all of it signal the climate change is indeed a d(accelerating) phenomenon. In other words, not just changing but speeding up in that change. I've said this before ...I'll say it again ... gradient gradient gradient. It's everything. It's a rudimentary principle requirement of reality its self ... Without it, Nature stops on a dime. Everything in the Universe ceases to exist ... if there are no gradients. One's very heart beat is based upon chemo-guided electrical gradients, where potential builds, the gate opens, physically expressed by the heart beat... Gate closes... potential builds up... and you'd better hope it rinses and repeats or its adios muchacho. And that includes where the wind blows ... The SSTs of the Pac NINO districts may not mean the same thing to this era's atmosphere, compared to 1918 gradients... or even the middle part of last century when the cause-and-effect oceanic-atmospheric coupling and expectation matrices were established. Because we are changing the gradients in the total integral of the system. To say otherwise to me is tantamount to changing the relationships between people and then expecting them to relate in the same way - paradox. In a way, it's almost a comic of follies ... All the pouring over data set of ENSO this and that spanning years ...balanced against all a dizzying array of multifarious, esoteric this and that... when before even attempting that crucible in the first place ... the ENSO part of it may in fact be losing relevancy. "losing" doesn't mean "lost" either... so -

Right. Right. Because they say what's been already ubiquitously known its oh my god time.

Well.. heh, my comparing (just to be clear) wasn't to establish analogs - it was purely core to establish ranking of abysmal Decembers. Yeah...I don't know what serves as analog ... I guess 2014 might by mass fields? I dunno - Will or Ray are pretty good sources for season to season comparatives?

I was tryin to quantize this against other douch Decs of lore (as Kevin likes to say...) while hammerin away on the peleton on the gym... Was 1994 a normal temp Dec - I think that was above normal if memory serves. In any case, ...re the 'so farness' of this winter... If we get to Feb 1 like 1995, talk to me - 1993 may have actually been above normal for the first half, then of course it got cold and the party started about 3 days after xmass to fame-out the rest of the way. I remember some soft 10th thru 5th placed ass wrecker abysmal Decs in 1980s. Thing is, I think we may have actually had more over performing Novies that decade... Interesting. I wonder if this is comparable to a 1980s Dec. 2014 (as I've heard others site) I don't like that one so much. I remember lots of mild days in cargo shorts that year... It reminded more of that Dec back in 2006 but nothing compares to the ass-end of a buffalo 2006, I know. It wasn't just mild. It was ballz humid, with sweating surfaces of side roads that year. All in all, I think if we placed all Dec ever ... 300 of 'em, and looked at them all fairly ... probably more disappoint than appoint (haha) but you know what mean. That's just my hunch. Even living in Michigan for the first 15 years of my life I can count on one hand white Christmas'. 'Course...lived most of my life in NE at this point - not sure what Decs have been like back there since. It's a bottom dweller winter thus far... but there are worse years - hard to imagine, I know.

Trust me... I'm way aware of the coupling mechanics between the troposphere and stratosphere ... I started posting that material over at Eastern back in '04/'05. I get that... The destablization concurrence of the tropical band? It doesn't directly causally link to SSW - that's what I was after. It does suggest some factor that both are plugged into ... I think you may be on to something looking at the QBO ... But we'd have to start in the 30 mb level where the QBO modes initialize. I find it very intriguing that both the QBO, and the SSW ... both are downward propagating phenomenon. I wonder if there is a temperature component to the QBO phases.

Egh... that egress through the deep south with that late range operational Euro ...the only way that happens is if that SE ridge bodily decays and/or exits in tandem. Otherwise, no bueno - destined to correct toward less. As far as today goes... pretty sure the models showed a cool boundary layer suggestion. Ptype ice algorithms lingering as far S of southern NH combined unimpressive WCB wind velocity were smoking guns for retarding the surface realization of warm air. Same likely result takes place on the next system... which was originally slated to be a low end snow event by the GFS and it's parallelogram ... Since, it's more like demoing the stuck butt-bang pattern. It's a lousy winter folks.. .That's just ..it. It's bad winter, to date. If one wants to spin/rationalize that reality as somehow being otherwise by discussing where they think we are heading, that's a different discussion though. We had a fluke in November - awesome! A bunch of useless cold... but cold doesn't really factor into whether a winter is "fun" so to speak - 'least for me anywho. Unless it's something truly ludicrous ...like walking from P-Town to Logan on a slabbed ocean. 'Magine that ... heh, I get this picture of dudes leaping as the one they left bobs a little. If we want to hide in the laurels of one way back whence Novie fluke while turning the page some five or six weeks later into January ... I guess that's subjective. But even including that? The total grade to date really ...even in a subjective sense can't be higher than a D+. We'll see what January brings... until such time, bottom dweller winter

Not to pin anyone's ears back in this discussion... is that published. I'm just curious, how/what is/are that physically connective tissues - if you will. Obviously, ...goes without notice that the arctic domain is opposite the equitorial band. That tends to stretch the direct model's credibility some but ... who am I to say. Perhaps there's some larger integral that concurrently favors both ... so they are not causally linked, per se, but are given 'boosts' at the same time. ...heh, I like that... I mean, on the surface. ...certainly seems plausible do to the eerily coincident timing of this sudden onset warm intrusion in the usual SSW-candidate sigma levels over the arctic domain and the modeled acceleration of the MJO... Okay... But... SSW years (looking back over the 40 year's worth) tend to fire off beginning now anyway - do they all have concomitant MJOs' going nuts? I'm not sure it wasn't just a coincidence. It'd be cool if it was more directly instructive though... Know what it almost reminds me of... well, does, otherwise I wouldn't of thunk it. But, if you take a conditionally chilled medium of water ...say at 37 F (2.5 C) and suspend it in ice for a few moments...then, just slightly ting the side of the glass beaker, the suspended liquid medium flashes to ice. It's really pretty cool looking. Going the other direction ... different physics mind you, but, take a boiling cup of water... run out into field five miles outside Tower Minnesota (...but ya gotta be naked for this to work) while it's -40 F ... and throw said boiling contents into the air... Half instantly freezes and half falls shimmering to the ground while the other looks like the anvil on a thunderhead kiting away as a semi-translucent airborne snowball. The impetus there is neither... It's to draw examples pertaining to capped conditional saturation forces being suddenly set into restorative balancing, in general ... Here's a hypothesis: Ozone residence in the polar stratospheric vortex may be unable to absorb heat due to being at a delicate equilibrium with a PV=NRT ...But some kind of gravity wave... perhaps produced by the MJO its self ... very subtle propagates through the medium is that "ting" that allows the cascade uptake of thermal energy ... the PV flashes warm. I dunno...just spit ballin'

Heh... annywho, stupid government shut-down. CDC isn't even on line 'cause of it. I'd like to see their numbers. The CPC is, however ... wow, zippo reflection out to the end of week 2 regarding any exertion by SSW on the polarward mixing depths ....That's the theoretical course work toward pancaking the vortex into blocking nodes. In fact, quite the mocking contrary ... having the index showing a 10 days positive spike enough to try and melt the ice cap in winter. Sarcasm aside... it may stand to reason. No sooner did the American cluster start sniffing out SSW shenanigans did the plethora of Tweets fire off counting their dream chicks of winter grandeur before any eggs were in the nest. I tried to the tease out a semblance of this event being a down-ward welling plume, using that 10 to 30 mb overlay ... it's still in play, but... we still haven't absolutely determined if this will be a real downward propagating event - which over and over again, is the correlation for lag/subsequent -AO. ...Non of which would happen until the mid January --> ...It may be that the current troposphere is currently in wait of said exertion... and the index collapses in some future extended range - in fact ...that's my hunch. Before that happens, as of last check the CDC had a favorable look... five days ago Who knows now... But the CPC's PNA is positive throughout the next two weeks, more so than less... That, despite the MJO showing that ludicrously high Phase 6 arc - although it may have relaxed slightly. So more uncertainty, because what all that means is that the MJO and the PNA progs are out of sync/correlation ... at least as far as the CPC. ECM' don't show any kind of the same evolution of the MJO but they haven't updated... anyway it's tough to use these ancillary means to back into an impression of PNA et al when they are conflicting. The impetus being ... who knows if we can change the pattern before hand.

boy ... you guys are easily trolled these days. Sensi!

My last tune in was page 61 ...so, as I type I have no idea what has been written/posted since in this or the ensuing January discussion ... but, the 00z GGEM was an absolute comedy of personal attacks on the winter weather enthusiasts of this sub-forum No question... that one specific model run was fall-off-chair hilariously mean. It has a full latitude warm pulse followed by an M/A snow storm that cirrus' SNE...followed by a full latitude warm pulse. Got ...'magine the vitriol? priceless

Prolly can't happen.

Helluva chinooky on this last couple o GFS runs.

You know ...it's true and it's interesting, that disparate recent ten year's of climo being a convenient argument. mm. But ...one can really see it elsewhere. Aside, the rest of the planet is empirically warmer - seein' as we're tacitly dancing 'round the music of gw in present context. But things are different... not a statement as to the ominous nature of it... but for those of us that obsess in model topography and morphism over the last ... pretty much 20 years of our lives, it's just in the way the models handle the atmosphere. Some-thing is different. It may even stand to a separate approach of reason, too. I've presented this in the past ... NASA released, per month, a state of the climo address ... in which (as I'm sure you know), contains a colorized mercator layout of the entire planet, red for warm blue for cool regions. For the vast majority of the months going back 120's worth ... there is a bias in the red side... except, here. I'd estimate that while we may well have averaged above normal in our own rites, as their data show the majority of times somewhere in the vicinity of eastern N/A there has been a meandering offset cool region. Not always... but > 50%. Speculative ...but it wouldn't shock me if we're sort of blessed locally in that we're proximal to what global mechanisms are favoring this region as "not as" warm if not cooler at times.

Ha ha! zactly... I stopped shy of venturing there in that verbose rendition... The memory has an interesting way of interfering with objectivity ... It seems, mental data parts company from empirical -based data at times. Particularly, in those that assign a 'personal' value to matters. But... yeah, I agree we are 'changing the mean' - as I put it before. How much... how that may express (or not) relative to circumstance and so forth ... meh, too murky of a subject matter.

Depends on what one means when they draw from the due philosophy. The issue I have with it is that I, ...and I suspect many others, hear/read the word due and it sounds like "just deserts," or something. Like sort of poetic justice ... I hate that. For what? I didn't draft up that 44" December, and I'm sure there are just as many folks out there, not of our ilk, who suffered mightily as much as many in here rejoiced - and on and so on... As though the weather (and model cinema haha) has this built in penance scheme, working to punish and reward based upon whether one liked a thunderstorm or something. Wow, that's one helluva persecution complex, huh. ...And so it gets into a quagmire of nonsense in a real hurry. I suppose I just wish there was another way of expressing that ... Like, just say, "...Since we've observed three big Decembers out of the last five years, the longer term average suggests that a correction to the numbers has to happen, or else, the system is changing" ... with certain impetus to that ending facet. Something like that, perhaps word-smithed down into a quicker turn of phrase. And note, that is different than that other fallacious logic called the law of averages, which I also can't stand; it seems to tacitly assume the failure of randomness in lieu of the averages themselves, somehow dictating the future. When we say "...we are due.." heh - that sounds a goodly bit like that's what we are doing - even though I suspect you were talking about the following: Purely based upon distribution theory ... the events of course happen when they do, period. Particularly one that is heavily guided by fractals ... randomness "usually" still falls inside a scope whose boundaries are blurred by a spattering of increasingly rarefying SD events, indifferently. Time will iron things outs around two Natural orders: the first being the mean; the 2nd being the changing mean - which doesn't typically happen so fast that one cannot rely on the former altogether... That is save for some truly ginormous pan-system jolt... asteroid or MEI 9 volcanism...etc.., in which case, the discussion is moot. That said, that "reliance" is really what you mean... I get it. If one observes three huge Decembers spanning back-to-back years, it is at least wise to consider not achieving a fourth huge December in that series without introducing countering result (or more..) first. By the way, 2015 winter was 350% above normal snowfall at some sites... Since the winters since have not been compensating/below average to atone for all that surplus, ...if we go by the due mentality...we probably should never see another flake until 2021

Hard to say but that may be on the shallow side of 'when' the paradigm shift occurs... where I suspect two weeks is on the deeper end of that... Perhaps D10 thereabouts. It's almost like the Euro has more MJO forcing in it's genetics (if you will...) The GFS and GEFs for that matter, now ...GGEM included, have taken to consistently carving out eastern heights and lowering the Caribbean thermal dome more prodigiously by D10. The Euro fights this ...which is a bit more correlative for a uber Phase 6 MJO ... But here's the real irony... the Euro's MJO is comparatively weak or non-existent in Phase 6! Weird...it's like the Euro's operational behavior is a better match for the GEFs MJO and vice versa. How's that for a mire of confusion - I think in the end it all red flags a pattern change. ...to what, time will tell.. Again, to re-iterate. None of this is really associated with any SSW (AO) stuff... This appears to be a pattern alteration prior to any AO pancake event. Which is not even clear whether that's going to be the case in mind mind. Ironically (again) the AO in the CPC is actually rising in the mean in the extended. As well, I checked the strat/trop monitoring sources that give the GEFs modeling for the sigma levels up there; there's really no conclusive evidence that the warm node presently emerging is or will ultimately be of the down-ward propagating phenomenon. But's that all an aside...

not to be a dink, but are you reading these posts? like, taking them in? I'm asking because this statement of yours seems almost amusing given the tenor of this last two pages, in which Will himself has just mused the lost virtuosity in discussing pattern changes in lieu of obsessing about snow. In other words, you made his point! I would be willing to guess that ...roughtly half that two hundred pages is grab-assy internet frolic as usual, which can and does constitute pain and anguish by those that 'just want snow' but, ...that leaves a considerable contribution by those that are engaging in "pattern discussion"

That "easier access," right right ... And it's ease for multiple reasons. Folks getting to consume those sources more readily at a couple index probes and thumb slide or two... But also, really are benefiting from graphics that have dumb-down and spelled it all out. Your in your 30's now... I'm not sure when you came of Met age...but, me being in my 40's I remember when all there was was black and white DIFAX charts... About my Sophomore year in college...the internet and graphics-related software really took off and overnight... the landscapes of consumable weather-related products - it was like opening a door into a new interpretive universe of reality. Suddenly...it's true: wrenches and pliars and hammers became fascinating to look at. It's funny ...because I don't think that was the intent of the technology - it seems like the entertainment and subsequent 'joy' dependency emerged as sort of a result of giving all these numerical models their three-dimensional corporeality.

It's fascinating how that... in turn triggers defensive attempts to abase by laughter and chiding ...because laughers and chiders know inside, the truth is a representation of them.

Sorry dude ! hahaha... two phenomenon: what will said - new one, model entertainment as a codependency source ... that codependency is much like a drug (seriously...) because there are 'joy' and 'elation' sensations provided by these virtual stories and cinema of the models.

I think that's possible... in fact, "...but it's probably just..." was the internal monologue this morning. As I'm sure you are aware, there is a whopper (as of yesterday ...) signal in the late mid and extended range American cluster for a paradigm shift. This (for others...) precedes and is not consequentially related to the side-car discussion in the last couple of weeks re the SSW and any eventual -AO. That's a separate, albeit 'winter encouraging' matter. Anyway, said shift features a robust 2 to 2.5 total SD recovery in the positive direction by the PNA, true at both the CDC and CPC agencies. And it's reasonably well continuity-footed. Meanwhile, having the EPO flirt with neutrality is not a bad complexion (though CPC doesn't appear to calculate the latter? ...which is annoying) for winter enthusiasts. The NAO is showing it's usual stochastic bop around but it too is also been more neutral with intervals of neggie curvature out there in time. I like it that both the low lvl wind flux calculation is on the same page with the middle tropospheric height anomalies. There disparate methods will move more together than not for obvious theoretical reasons... however, the continuity spanning several night's worth of computations with neither playing catch-up (which does happen from time to time) is suggestive of a well anchored pattern. I mentioned this to Don in his thread out there in the Gen. W. D. late last night recovering from an 'nog buzz ...that it's interesting how the ECM' cluster seems to be more reflective of the MJO forcing, if not empirically ...by complexion of the fact that it cannot seem to find another look than pummeling lower heights through western N/A and maintaining the SE ridge at least excuse imaginable. Which segues into your yo-yo ... The model (operational that is...) did start bending the total layout of it's curved lines (hahaha) a little more suggestive of said paradigm shift in that previous run...But, last night, it went right back home to mommy MJO. The GGEM ...it went much more aggressively in favor of the GEFs/GFS's fyi - ... Either way, the MJO is moving quickly... The free-sites have the GEFs version of it strengthening in Phase 6 (while again... somehow limiting it's influence), which is a bad correlation for winter geese over eastern middle latitudes, granted ... but it's haulin' ass and 'ill be entering a Phase that IS a good correlation in just ten or so days. I wonder if the Euro cluster sort of collapses (if we will) when that extrapolation comes into their range? I wonder what those Weekly sources are doing now - Not intending to preach to the quire here ... just sayn'

Agree in principle ... but, I think there is a new kid in the "neurosis" neighborhood ... and he (or she...heh) goes by the name of 'model codependency'. It's been a fascinating evolutionary ... sort of, 'anthropological' journey over the many years. What your saying is certainly true. As someone who has been in varying involvement since the early days of ... oh, gees "Wright Weather"? ( Wow) ... then, Eastern... ultimately, this social media outlet/community, I've been able to witness the transmutation of contributor styles and agendas, looking back over the last ten to fifteen years. I can say with objective confidence, when Wright was in its hay-day, the contributorship was more generically weather fixated... But, there was a tendency/bias toward winter. As Eastern got more popular and hijacked user-ship away from Wright et al ... eventually the crucible of time purified mostly just winter obsession ... with a few folks of pan-dimensional interests - but honestly, I noticed these latter types would not stick around. The most logical explanation for the attrition of that sector ... the best I can guess is/was that the daily grind of was like pushing their content and subject matter to the outside like a centrifuge hyper-focusing winter at a hot core of enthusiasts... So perhaps they lost interest and moved on. As American was speciated from that environment ... lifting the ballast of its original user-base from that pool, concomitantly that means it's already pretty strongly tended toward what you are describing ... however, I propose a new phenomenon: I call it 'model codependency' but ...what that is intended to mean is best described by saying: 'for some returning users.... a lot of them, the desire to encounter model presentations of drama supersedes the event its self'. A fact that came to coherence for me when observing a clear and registerable difference in 8" events that were modeled 7 days ahead of time, successfully, versus those that reared up and 'little crittered' with little headway/warning for which the user core could marinade in the imagination and wonder of what might be in a dystopian model cinema. And here's the way that works - probably - ... the 'feeling' excited about a dramatic 'modeled' event, simply becomes a phenomenon-relationship that is not part of reality. Sorry for what that implies... but it simply is true. It's a closed system - user sees model bomb, get excited (which is technically a dopamine response by the way...), and thus, need to see the next model run to get back to that high. All the while this distraction of their lives (which ...of course they do not see or deem as being such...), ...it can be taking place without ever having looked out the window! Anyway, while I agree with your sentiments entirely (snow enthusiasts filter what they read...), I sense a separate sort of phenomenon has evolved over the years in the general public access to modeling tools. And, it's not just endemic to the users of this social media, either... Evening news' have taking to elaborate graphical cinema ...tapping into the natural tendency of the average viewer's imagination and excitement to 'hook' them into watching the next showing, by putting up GFS vs the ECMWF virtual storms. All that excitement of impending "cautiously harmless" dystopian entertainment is really a pretty heavy intent by the users whether they realize that pattern of behavior or not. Just another charm of the e-zombie world we've created for ourselves.

It's interesting how the EC is more so than the American cluster, representational (perhaps) of that theoretical forcing. Its almost like the GEFs fights

12z Euro also sends a coherent chinook plume ESE outta the eastern slopes of the Canadian cordillera ... Prolly won't mean much to us as it gets deflected and ultimately absorbed into the ongoing continental warm departures already going on in the Mississippi Valley to M Atlantic and points south. But I do find it interesting because that behavior was favored/part of the total expectation when we started this thread and it's kind of cool to see that materialize -whether it verifies or not, not withstanding

Just FYI ... general reader A critical correlation metric between these stratospheric warm intrusion events and the AO relates to whether they are downward propagating. Currently the GEFs cluster suggests so, but the verification may demo more in the way of that specific behavior over the next ten days. If so ... the lag is two to three weeks from first onset. ... which is now; a historic inference lands a would be PV morphology in the ides of Jan. Also as others have noted… Negative AOs do not always distribute cold in the middle latitudes evenly, should this all lead inexorably to -AO; it may favor one side of the hemisphere My present hypothesis is that with the modest warm ENSO correlation favoring (perhaps) positive PNA back end Winters that may actually parlay/prone Rosby positioning ... establishing a cold conveyor over the Canadian Shield if those two statistical behaviors play out according to their majority historical precedence.