Typhoon Tip

The subtle slowing in the NAM I mentioned a while ago could really just be 'giga' perturbation and not really be indicative of trend. Just thought I'd clarify that. It could.. but the the only reason I brought it up was because it was endemic to the one model/interesting... 'Fact that I have not seen an 18z cycle from any other source that backs that noise, in fact... the opposite is more true, doesn't help the NAM's case. That said, the only thing the NAM may have going for it is that it's resolution in the boundary layer may have a better idea on where the front lies down. It's slightly south axis could certainly be atoned for seeing that resistance in the lower thickness intervals. But, perhaps comparing to other meso models might help there ?

This NAM solution is interesting in that it appears to be slowing the entire deep tropospheric synoptic evolution by some 6 hours ..but crucially enough to blossom that baroclinic leafing in NYS to central NE more prodigiously.. It's also causing subtly more deepening along and S of LI, which may be inducing a bit more ageo. flow/mixing into the Rt 2 region... with an bit more QPF flashing over to snow out there in time. But that level of detail aside, ( and it is the NAM of course! ), the overall complexion of that is bit more meaningful I would think than some of these immediate prior solutions.

I've been tussling with the hypothesis that a +PNA is not enough in and among itself.. I've noticed this tendency over the recent two decades ... getting more coherent with each passing cold season, where without the -EPO, you shut off and flip violently above normal. We've entered a one-or-the-other as a longer termed, multi-seasonal tendency. We seem to be entering, or are in, a new paradigm, ..most likely associated with the dreaded eye-roller climate change, where it's all or nothing. We have to have the ridge tapping the arctic air mass and delivering en masse/loading, or the expanded HC reasserts its self, and we have a rather extreme continental roll-out of cold replaced with above normals - that behavior, overall, is becoming more common place in cold seasons. That said ...we have been blessed at mid latitudes of the continent, in that the Pacific Basin bulge ( and this goes back to primitive climate model predictions from the late 1980s-'90s ) is unrelenting, do to the [ theorized ] SST anomalies that are relatively above normal, regardless of specific PDO state. That bulge is turning the flow NW in Canada, .. more frequencies of -EPOs to ironically cloak the fact that without said EPO ...you're flipping the other way. In other words, +PNA's with less arctic tapping are warmer patterns than they were 50 years ago. Sorry folks ..you gotta start modulating this shit into your ideas about your winter outlooks or they're meaningless, particularly when there are papers explaining the HC expansion and the empirically storm track repositioning and changes to the larger scale circulation eddies because of it. But I digress... In any case, you can see it on the D10 Euro. The EPO has [ perhaps only temporarily ] abated, and the entire domain S of ~ the 50th parallel across the continent, goes above normal at 850 mb pretty quickly, despite the western mid latitude +PNA attributing to +PNAP look. Later on in the cold season a +PNA alone would be more capable of substantively maintaining a cold source but ... this early, with limited snow pack/cryosphere over Canada, "home grown" cold air masses are a struggle. By the way .. I'm not sure I buy it the EPO is going away per the Euro's extended, just using that as an example of how mid latitudes have more trouble than decades ago with 'cold in the bank.' We got to more and more so be in a reloading constancy ...which also unfortunately means a higher compression/N/stram dominant pattern and velocity saturation ...introducing other headaches.

It’s happened before in November

You know ..the more I look at this thing for next Tuesday, it's a redux of the same shit we just went through - just a more amplified version of the same damn thing. Mm. Maybe we're just in a pattern ... things tend to repeat when in a pattern.

Up...there goes the futility record -

meh...

OH I'm sorry ... I don't/didn't mean to come off as "factoid" on that. That's speculation based upon some other avenues that are, however clad...so, call it synthesizing a possible explanation/and/or supposition that when the base-line R-wave lengths are smaller, the EPO tends to dump west. Moreover, since we are not statistically in the longer R-wave time of year ( yet ) .. that's why I used the term scaffolding That said, I'm not even sure that ridge being too far west in this situation is really caused by that. It may just be the rub that it's a "west-based +PNA"

Yeeeup .... Kind of hard to release 3 billion years of geological carbon stows ...back into the reactive chemistry environment in as little as 300 years, and expect all that volatility to go on without consequence... huh? F idiots But oh, wait! When the IR ( Industrial Revolution ) took place, the first thing anyone thought was, "..We're going to make a fortune off this profligate exploitation.." and that's a human failing. The next species that climbs out of the primordial ranks to take over the planet might have some built in checks-and-balances that we never seemed to evolve when our ingenuity outpaced the natural order of ecological limitation on provisions .. Those that always dictated species' populations and their inherent vitality and health and numbers. When we added to our share, these other systems subtracted from theirs. It's all just arithmetic - 8 billion people ( no wonder ) requires a mass extinction of these other species, THEN. That probably really is more than just symbolically what is happening to this world. The earth doesn't care what species it is... but all species can't exceed 20 billion ( say ). So if we occupy 8 billion of that space, something else has to wither away.. I like that, it's a great premise of sci-fiction, probably because like all really good sci-fi, it has plausibility based in fact.

huh... No, completely illogical read on your part. The statement has 0 to do with weather numb nut -

There may also be a seasonal aspect to this.. We are still technically not into the longer wave length R-wave time of the year, such that these EPO vicissitudes may not be taking place in the best "scaffolding" ... That said, I really am strongly confident in my observation that this trough has corrected toward a shallower meridian depth coming east of the Rockies, comparing the runs from two days ago. This may be correction owing to the fact that the ridge is further west - which full circle ...may be related to the -EPO happening in a subtly less than ideal R-wave construct... Lotta of chicken and egg and complexity there.. But in the end, the trough plumbs to about Nebraska and suddenly stops in the Euro and just starts moving E... that's the ball-game if that happens. Next! Maybe it'll correct but I really believe it starts with that ridge bumping E some. If so, we start to see that trough carve deeper toward the TV and there we go.

Anyone who's abandoning this thread should not be allowed back in when the 12z guidance reverses the trend -

MJO progs are still favorable mid month ... Man, it's almost like the peregrinations of modeling efforts and tweaking over the years have wended us into a situation, almost purely as an "emergent process of a complex system"; in this case the models have emerged this skill of engineering reasons to cancel deeper cyclones. Seriously, according to CPC the MJO in both the GFS/Euro clusters, rockets through phase 6 in just two days; then, while strengthening modestly they slow the propagation down passing moderately thru phases 7/8 ... That's a cold seasonal correlation for the NP-Lakes/OV and NE regions... What's interesting is that the operational Euro and GFS are really doing everything in their physical power to flip the script to a warmer look as near as D10, seemingly fighting it.. There's really no reason in the tele's to do that, not sure why they are... interesting.

I think you and Scott ( I think it was .. ) kinda nailed it three days ago, when you were discussing the particulars with the ridge in the west. From what I've just seen of the overnight guidance, this is simplified: the ridge is too far west. Because of that, as the trough amplifies it's only going to be able to gain so much meridional depth coming east of the Rockies ( to satisfy the total L/W spacing). So it bottoms out early and the flow is stretched west-east. Which I'm not saying it will go on to verify that way; this is an eval of what the models have morphed over the last two days. But if the ridge in the west were say, 10 deg longitude ( or so ) east, the trough gets conserved in the N/S, and then you get feed-backs .. Like increased leading confluence and arming high pressure over eastern Canada ...enhancing baroclinicity ... bottom of the trough ignites low that comes up underneath and yadda yadda yadda. It's just a weird nuance in this amplitude - which who knows... It may very well go on into the history books that way. It's too bad for storm enthusiasts, because this is a rare time that the flow over the Gulf looks compressible enough to me. We'll get a +3 SD ridge over the Dakotas in two weeks, with a 50 v-max diving SE over ORD, ...whith 588 heights over Atlantic Georgia - you think this is pisser, wait 'till you see the toaster bath that causes. But, the teleconnectors can't elucidate that type of particular idiosyncrasy - all they can do is signal interesting time periods and then it is hoped such details remain better behaved. Because the truth is, the west-east biased version of the +PNA/-EPO isn't physically impossible, within the confines of an otherwise tele-based promising correction event - which is pure statistics. In a way, it's really no different than a west or east -based NAO: both are negative( positive) but they have most discerned different impacts on eastern Canada/NE U.S. As far as the Lakes cutter... I'm not even seeing that much frankly in some of these guidance'. Some of them are instantiating the low over the eastern Lakes on the polar boundary - not sure that's same thing but... heh. I mean it's not like the low cut threw anywhere doing that.

I expanded on that... I do that often... write something and then hammer it with afterthoughts -sorry

Not to be snarky but I don't agree that population is the problem in among its self. This may seem totally obvious because, well .. .it is, but, it's what the population does that is the problem - not the population. There is an important distinction. I'm sure those involved in any such debate are aware.. And perhaps there is a 'built in' assumption, one that is cynical where they're musing back and forth within the predilection that humanity is incapable of a non-profligate exploitation way of existence. I could buy that ... I almost like that - almost. Greed first! Evidence certainly seems to suggest so. To that, I have friends directly keyed into the circuit of Boston area university scientists, and they all agree ... the problem is more clearly a sociological one, more so than a geo-physical one. Change attitudes... and the latter takes care of its self. It's still just the population doing it. If there were 8 billion people on this planet all living green - no problem. That can change? But, people need to get burned to believe in the fire. That's the biggest problem with this ... the specter of climate change moves at a pace below the threshold of human senses. People can't feel, see, taste or touch or hear it; though we are seeing that beginning to change with striking video. Still, it's not in people's back yards enough. 'Soon as people feel the nausea, they'll stop sipping the cool-aide that it's okay to profligate - hell, begin to realize that the way we've done this thing since the Industrial Revolution is even profligate in the first place. Generations have now lived and died, tucked inside the IR years since that great Human evolutionary turn begin to usurp Human societies... and their culture knows no other way.

that's your K.U. event ... That gets ejected east, down comes the N stream... jump in the sack along the M/A and the party's on -

We gotta be careful tho .. .Will and Scott's concerns about the western ridge are certainly valid. It's actually the speed/isohypses counts that's [ probably ] stretching the total L/W space length so much, and just enough to do anything at all.... I think that is why the GFS isn't more consolidated with a plumb gorging out into the MS valley ...is because the wave spacing is stressed. You end up with pearled lows and an active baroclinic axis that's missing the mid level triggers, because said triggers are stretched. wow, what a cluster f!

Some other methods are flagging a stormy look ... particularly D4 to 12. Probably just ancillary indicators falling into line/emerging into the previous signal for mid month. But the MJO is accelerating through 6, spending really only 2 and half days there, and appears to slow down in both the Euro/GFS clusters as it cuts through 7 -->8 ... which OND is cold temp correlation moving from the NP thru the Lakes and into the east as it goes. It think there's some potential that the models have backed off the depth of that trough next week and may should not have - we'll see where this goes, but there also a recurving west Pac TC ... hard to say which came first, but the WPO favors that behavior and may send additional goodies down stream.

Yehah... we have to remember, we're still in an overall circulation regime that represents "good problems" to have. One thing I'm also thinking about is just how fast the flow is trying to circumvallate that trough, and even the D6-7 thing can be - obviously - misguiding because of that additional stress in the models. interesting.

I also I try to stay clear of the psycho-babble bullshit these days but still, I think there was a hang-up between "seeing the season's first snow" - versus maybe winning the lottery and having that go well above climo ? It's seems if folks kept the former expectation as the primary motivation for following and engaging in the hobby ..etc, that may make it less bitter that we're ...looking at whatever this present thing is. I dunno - seems that way...

I joked ... and of course got zero likes ( muah haha ), forecasting the dreaded apocalyptic "nosnowmegettin' " winter - does anyone have the plumbs to forecast that? I mean, take out the 2012 Halloween storm that was a pretty frickin' close to an an apocalyptically bad winter, and should show that if we can get that close - it's kind of like deep field astronomy and this S.E.T.I stuff. The old argument, if it can happen once in a cosmos that for all intents and purposes is so vast that to attempt to conceive of it in any finite terms pretty much escapes all effective meaning and therefore ...doesn't exist, that means that it probably happened more than once. I submit that in a GW/cc world, one that's already put up a year like that one, it's just a matter of time. That person that makes that call and is is proven right? I got a hunch they go down in history as the the most buried unsung genius ever - haha

I have a hypothesis growing ... one existentially based/anecdotal, but hey, ideas gotta start somewhere. Basically, we've already lost winters to global warming along the 45th parallel/ E of ORD. Zomb! Firstly, that doesn't mean it can't snow - don't panic just yet. Though such a future is unavoidable some years to decades in the future, for now it just means that the averages are already now breaching a base-line that is too warm to support cryo months. Most run-ins with cold and concomitant snows are going to be more pattern specific...thus, ephemeral in nature. We have to remember, there are no neat and tidy boundaries in the atmosphere. Climate zones are moving N; we know this is true as it is being empirically shown, and, these emergence' fit climate models - both primitive and more recently sophisticated. Be that as it may that does not mean it won't snow and get brutally cold, if perhaps spanning ever shorter duration(s) south of the perceived climate transition "boundaries" - virtual in nature...etc, etc. That all said, my hypothesis is that a climate transition virtual boundary has already shifted north of the Mid Atlantic and New England regions from central latitudes and S. Part of that is formulated by the personal observation that more and more ... we seem to not get cryo-supportive events/air masses S of the 45th parallel across the conus and locally, *unless* there is an antecedent -EPO. It seems to be we are whittling away other teleconnectors that were always capable of doing it. The negative North Atlantic Oscillations seem less effectual in delivering cold - though they are rarefied in recent decade as a separate matter. The PNA can be positive, yet we're throwing up raining coastal storm types along the eastern seaboard, and also...as papers are publishing recently, the mean storm tracks are observed(ing) migrating N; these +PNA's are delivering more "Lakes Cutter" type tracks. Also a warmer trajectory for the TV-eastern OV/NE regions. The East Pacific Oscillation domain space is very high in latitude, up over the Alaskan sector and adjacent lower Beaufort sea and N Pac/ NW Territories of Canada, and in fact, ...overlaps the Arctic Oscillation domain space. When that field is negative ( i.e., blocking heights and or directive cold loading into N/A), it is sort of like "the last of the cold delivery teleconnectors" to go. The larger scale geological/geographical circumstance in the way N/A is situated and immediately relays off the Pacific, "encourages" the EPO to bulge, and tap cold - if we look at the last 240 months of NASA averages, we see a relative cool offset over N/A for this reason. With the PNA and NAO seemingly reducing efficacy, the EPO has become much more the primary effective cold loading Canada and point south over the continent. The PNA and NAO, both seemed to to be less proficient in doing so within their own index correlations. These ladder indices share much more domain space with mid latitudes - particularly true in the PNA. The NAO is similar to the EPO, but ...the western limb of NAO's domain space is over a region of Canada that has been experiencing elevating temperatures even in winter months - so in the means..there's plausibility for research there, that perhaps the -NAOs are not as effective as they used to be at delivering cold to 40 N ( ORD-BOS). I have noticed that we are either partial/below normal temperature distribution/anomalies therein, with -EPOs, or... we seem to go right back to a new rest state that features vastly above normal temperatures. It's like one or the other, with less "normal" days in between. Normal days in climate ...they are almost as rare as any given departure, because they are just numbers that precipitate out of arithmetic means... But, the scatter plots are showing greater departures/extremes - and that is more like the new normal. If we took the EPO's out entirely? I think we have 60 to 70 F winters.

I never really watched the show. I was probably too young to care in the early part of the decade and didn't come into my own until Star Trek TNG sort of flipped the script on the singular stud model of sitcom television. Your "Mag PI" and "Night-Rider," resonant echoes of a 1980s patriarchal dominant line-toeing conservatism ( thankfully!) started extinguishing. Shows like TNG with all their aliens and different cultural tolerance built into theme, yet still with hierarchical command structure, played homage to both cultural modes, but was a reflection of the changing times.. What the hell am I babbling about ? Oh, I was into shows in the 1990s when I wasn't drunk at college. That was usually TNG reruns by then, "Simpsons" ... and "Family Guy" eventually. And "Frazier" loved that show. In fact, I don't think I ever regulared television other than Science Channel and PBS/Nova type stuff, since Frazier concluded. Oh, sports - okay.. I like the Patriots and Red Sox, Celtics and Bruins, but that's a different thing. Never dug on the stud shows though - both too young, and even if I were older, judging who I am, I'd-a been rooting for the villain to kick the stud's ass!

Well.. I read that ( bold ) and cringe, too. Firstly, I didn't say that it 'shit the bed' necessarily? I don't wanna be couched in that sort of admonishment/castigation thing. But, as to the bold, it's still better than it used to be. I think others have discussed this, and why, recently already, so no sense in drubbing the topic back up. Let's just cool-headed say, yeah...the GFS seems to have the better idea on this one and leave it at that. We don't have to oversell the Euro's perceived bad performance, or we're just as guilty as the oversell of the model we are evaluating. I would still take the Euro over the GFS as a gambler, even in the D4-6 window, but this was a particularly tough call for all guidance really. We are in a screaming fast pattern ( wind more so than wave spacing...).