Typhoon Tip

Euro cut back on the 850 penetration in latitude, as well as time duration, and I suspect that trend continues. ... This next Lakes cutter is probable ( still ) but the deeper extended ( whether it happens or not exactly like that, notwithstanding...) really more than anything else underscores the previous -EPO or -EPO-like reload idea. Which typically promotes a brief period of ridging and warm intrusion up the eastern seaboard as per climatology as we know. Scott is over stating that effect to be funny troll but he knows what I am saying is true, and unless things turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities ... that period of time is more likely destined to be a transient/lower duration and quite possibly a lower amplitude scenario. Now that I've declared this... things will go ahead and 'turn out differently in the larger hemispheric modes/modalities' just to spite this idea .. but cross that bridge - Regarding the Lakes cutter ... I still would not be surprised if the warm up ends up being more of a triple point mister with more transient heat pinched S of NYC. I've seen this EPO slosh back mass field two-step scenario too often to know that the warm side of it is often too amplified in most guidance types when peering at it from D5+ but ... meh...we'll see -

Boy the models really nailed that western foist of the surface low toward the Maine coast. You can really get a sense of that happening as we type, both sat and rad looping. I don't think this is going to end very fast in eastern Mass and coastal SE NH given that low needs to move along it's typical curved trajectory ...Fuji Wara style around the mid level vortex. It will probably start weakening, and that may dwindle off the intensity but until that low pivots S of and finally starts slipping E ..we're probably going to be rotating globules of light to moderate snow bursts like this.

I'm curious how everyone did/averaged E of I-495, where last night there was resent if not vitriol regarding the snow total forecasts seemingly not matching the "illusion" of now-cast at the time. I must admit, I too was a little surprised to see a solid new 6" on my wipe board this morning here in Ayer, and I suspect they snowed yet more say Willmington/Essex Co ?? So, those late snow totals forecasts nailed it if so -

the banded nature/shred rad fest that took place yesterday with that moisture starved conveyor is "technically" not part of "round 2" ...just sayn' Some of you did quite well from that interim snow during the afternoon and evening yesterday, along Rt 2 and curving SW in pockets in CT. But round 2 was more so the reconsolidating curved CCB head over the east overnight and this morning. Not that any of that matters... snow is snow -

6" new since ~ 4pm last afternoon in Ayer. 4" of which fell after 11 pm last evening. Which brings the event or dual event total to 14" .. but of course it's more likely 10" out on the yard level with the usual settling and so forth. Presently flurries with occasional light snow bursts. Vis isn't terrible. We appear to be on the western edge of this as everyone red eyed and awake is certainly aware.

Also ... may be hard toVisualize at this time but don’t be surprised if the 2 to 2 1/2 day warm up ends up 18 hours of misting triple point

This offers explanation...

No ... not necessarily... Just that it's within the realm of possibilities so folks should be aware that if this pivots a tick more and spares everyone the ignominy of a good time, don't be shocked or emotive. Tall order from this crew but - It's entirely possible that both those models are just responding to convective sequencing/feedback, and since this situation is sort of got no room to f around with it's not helping confidence either way. Euro's actually pretty good as an arbiter in this sort of situ - probably just go with that models and let the chips fall as they may at this point. Or, nowcast too

I mentioned yesterday that if this didn't consolidate better we might have to deal with a farther east 2nd system - Then of course what happens, the models summarily try to consolidate ... but, the lull today sort of precludes that as being successful and now on top of the 2nd system, the east - typical bs making people jump through hoops

snow blowing off roofs a bit ....

Just hoping it doesn't turn out to be one of those one storm now, one storm in March winters -

temps slipping back along Rt 2... 33/32 this morning and now 31/29... Snow/water beads on car are dry and solid respectively after being perfect snow man blue earlier

Or intelligence to read anything else

Nice effort but you'll get more replies and sense of it actually being read if you include the 'snowcane' drug ... So like all that, then say ... " ....means x-y-z snow for a-b-c location" Suddenly your analysis is brilliant!

I'd say on balance the operational GFS was cold actually ... It just has a two day stint of an active storm track NW of the region that everyone's focused upon like there's nothing else but the end of the world because of it - oh the humanity. Actually, in some ways that looks like the ice storm in 1998 ... but who cares at our latitude, right - But beyond that, a week or so from tomorrow, we cascade on a steady diet of low amplitude -EPO cold loaded air masses. Just not a lot of specific entertainment modeled during that era... but, we used to have a saying back in my college lab days up there at UML... 'First it gets warm; then it gets cold; BOOM' ... well, the Euro too, both got the warm whip back to cold, ... maybe we just have to wait for the other ? The PNA is progged to remain elevated over at CPC, though the AO/NAO arc leaves a lot to be desired, granted... But, I haven't seen the EPO progs lately ...so the above surmise is just based upon what the operational run's general circulation vibes. If we have +PNA under a pulsing low amp -EPO, that's still an interesting pattern.

This goes along with the expansion ( Globally) of the Hadley Cell into the lower Ferrel latitudes... Among the charming symptoms: shifting mean storm tracks farther N of previous century(s) observation, is recently noted; speeding up the tropospheric deep layer wind velocities. This may be decadally ephemeral .. lasting while the polar regions are still sufficiently differentiable relative to the subtropics in winters, such that surplus latent heat stows in the lower latitudes cause increasing slope/ geopotential gradients everywhere in the ambient means. When/if the polar regions continue to warm, this particular effect may wane into a circumstance unknown. North America tending to run cooler ( though still warmer than normal at times ... ) relative to the other continental areas of the planet, due to it's unique geographical circumstance in the total Pacific-North American loading pattern - which Pac heat --> tendency for increased NE Pacific ridging ...which concomitantly supplies an enhanced tendency for western/central Canadian deep layer circulation response and NW/N conveyor(s). And... the MJO. It is just going to behave in concert and form, in it's own way, relative to the HC forcing/changes, just as well... This is not discussing how any of GW and the MJO effects say, Australia, or Indonesia or the Eurasian regions or anywhere else... Africa and Mediterranean climates ..etc. It's just mentioning that there are noteworthy and observable ongoing changes in the N/A circulation tendencies.

Will's fire hose into eastern mass appears like it's either trying to get going, or ...is just a weak version of one. But those are some impressive embedded echoes over interior SE zones and as the snow line is collapsing as we speak, that might get 'flashy' in there. That present band over southern NH actually looks OES ish

That's really neat looking on Rad and Sat this hour east of the Jersey coast. There's thunder there... and the expansion/cooling cloud shield over top immediately assumes a cylone curl, as though there is a tight internal cyclonic nucleus imploding there. Which, that's may be confirmed in surface/buoy PP obs.... Or, it could be more mid level - hard to say. But that's cool... Meanwhile, fire hose in NYS -

Presently there are heavy showers with thunder looking pixels popping off E of Jersey - hint hint...

I don't know who's said what or what was posted recently among too many pages ... but man, that 00z GFS surface evolution was a face smack for storm enthusiasts. How often does one see a 975 mb low stall collocated on top of Nantucket Island for like 9 to 12 hours, and have almost nothing put down on Earth to show for it, NW of the CC Canal ? Answer - it's like impossible. Yet, the GFS has no compunctions in attempting to sell that rarefied and particularly special kind of butt banging - But, in more rational terms ... I wonder if this first wave escaping seaward is taking too much moisture/baroclinic parameters with it relative to the GFS evolution. Seems a viable reason. In that paradigm, this thing is dynamically challenged do to our greed on the first wave - haha. So not so rational but that's funny... There is a reason we typically don't get "two" snow storms inside of 30 hours. I've seen it happen ... 1996 did that in December - or darn close. But this is no analog even remotely to that circumstance back whence, and what we do have is middling mid/U/A vestigial vortex moving along a favorable climate track ... with seemingly less left over from last night's 'wringing out' to work with... Such that QPF is challenged ? I almost wonder if there is a deformation band or two around that NW arc, possibly as far NW as mid western NH, but it's like transparent CB's in the summer. ...I mean, in deference to the GFS model run. Haven't seen any other guidance. The NAM is is a teaser -

Less consolidation with the first pulse/cyclone developing after a couple runs trying to move toward more... It appears it's reverted back to this one now eventually stripping away the baroclinic instability seaward and starving the mid and upper level mechanics once they arrive. May not be real - wonder if the 18z gets the full compliment of grid input, too.

2" in Ayer; uniform tiny aggregate snow at 1/2 mi vis. 28/27

That stuff on rad moving through CT this hour is either bright banding or someone is going to get walloped by a short duration stacking event.. That almost reminds me of the rad image the hour before the 0 visibility Dec 23, 1997 spread up over Worcester and Middlesex Co.

I would be leery of an ageo whiplash/flash if you are liquid now, yeah... I suspect if this consolidation trend continues though, this thing will transition into more a CCB and y'all down that way might get end gamed by that some -

Amazing so early in the year that the Euro gets us thru D7 protecting the ground snow after the fact, too... wow -