Typhoon Tip

18z GFS is hedging back toward more compression/wave damping ... The whole run appears sped up with wind velocities and bit more gradient saturated then the last two cycles. ... I mean, unfortunately, that's part of the possibilities over next weekend. I mentioned it earlier, so it's good to get an example of this out of the way early - and hope it really does stay 'out of the way' ... but I'm leery of this PV up N acting too weighty and squeezing the flow ... One thing I do want to point out is that the 582 dm isotach is S of Florida and the wind velocities are ~ 30 kts. Although there is a fast flow in some GFS runs overall... should the western ridge pop better there could be deeper dive back east with less absorption/adding back to storm potential. Any such system would be moving right along..

Yup ... mentioned this earlier myself. I'm actually still in that mode of reflection for now. Having cross-guidance support for that spatial-temporality is definitely the more immovable aspect. The details and individual model runs? That's just either eye-candy at one end, or venting-fights at the other...

Just because I'm bored with nothing to do until game time... I'd like to see some of those 'massive' individual members...

It's amazing how proficiently the post-modern era of Internet western society is at exposing an underlying lapse in the critical thinking ability of the general population. It's always been this way that lay-folks tend to believe ... but having the hoi-polloi have access to information does provide for an explosion of colorful renditions of reality ... which then go on to become ethotic, whether true or not. Gee - wonder why 'fake news' ever found a target.

Mm... looking a little closer... that's actually a huge broad sleet band... good for 1.5" total of rattling ... but there would still likely be a band that's perhaps 20 miles wide of pellets and accretion mixed. It would be warning ice either way...

We mentioned be leery of ice profiling ... as though deliberately to emphasize the point, that para run of the GFS with 24 hours straight of severe icing - that would be probably 2+" of accretion in a band somewhere ... Basically, N. Worcester Co/'08 spread out over a much larger area

Euro run doesn't look right beyond D4.5 .... 86 that

Purely for the conjecture of it ... nah... Keep it - Admittedly, the problem is an IMBY one for me... Metro-west of Boston out throughout the 495 region of eastern SNE didn't really get that big of a deal out of that "history" maker. It was ...15" total in Acton - if we use snow as a kind of standard metric for the, "dude ...inCREdible" scaling, that's not overly impressive. I suspect much of adjacent eastern Massachusetts, CT/RI ... also had < 18". If we wanna consider other aspects... no one around my township or adjacent ones lost power. The wind was advertised to topple lose chimneys and airborne stray cats and I don't recall even seeing small branch litter anywhere. I'm not sure what produced the biggest bluster: the storm, or the media frenzy in the 7 days leading up to it. Instead, it was proven more histrionic. Don't get me wrong... I say this with some tongue-in-cheek... who would ever pass on 15" ... But, I'd like a storm advertised like that to actually be historic here The most interesting aspect about that storm for me was the 13" nearing the Gulf geographies, as well as the derecho like wind blast/squall that slammed through Florida.

Heh - you beat me by a single post yeah... it's a period of important amplitude I suspect... It's waaay out there. But just about every member of the GEFs carries either an event or a trough flex ... indicative of favorability in the overall numerical guidance coverage. Usually important eras show up at extended leads because their presence ...however emergent, are either already detectable ...or the domain in question is exceptionally prone to something evolving given time - either way... The "already detectable" variety is usually < D10 however.. So, we'll see... The EPS is in the throws of a pattern that's not antithetical too... This could all mean anything -

Jokes aside ... it's been popping up occasionally ... and there's enough ensemble member suggestion for the next bit of amplitude to watch around the 24th/25th ... while would be the 41st anniversary to a very close approximation ironically.. In any case, I am actually more intrigued for that time range for a purer formatted "snow" chance ... where and when exactly TBD -

huh ... you don't have to tell you're kidding ... I get it... I'm douche, your a douche... everywhere a db old mcfarmer had a cow, e-i e-i- oh.

Can someone other than me begin the perfunctory flogging Kevin's head with, 'not an actual forecast but conjecture of possibilities' ? I fantasize outfitting Kevin with doggy buzz collar ...and every time he get's ready to type one of his hyperbolic knee-jerk fantasy interpretations of what others are talking about.. BZZZZT! ... Then, when he's been zapped several times... he actually posts something lucid and intellectually accountable/responsible and fair, he get's a bj ... Wonder how long he'd take to behave in a risk-reward vs punishment corrigibility effort like that ...interesting.

Here's a ... each model has a different variation on that time frame ... But in this case, ... not just because of the time range; the wave spacial-temporal spacing from the Pacific to the Atlantic is in above average agreement for 144 thru 192 hours - no question! That's a huge difference for me. Comparative to the last six or so weeks, over a time-span that featured anomalous amounts of discordant negative interference, at all scales and considerations, intuitively that suggest an improvement in collective performance is in store. They could unilaterally fail...sure. But in synoptic 101, the synoptition seeks consensus. Above all, first and foremost, the crippling ennui has ended for the right reasons this time. Some of that righteousness is conceptualized by the fact that the hemispheric circulation medium, particularly over our quadrature, has finally passed through enough morphology ... ( and probably will continue to evolve - hopefully ... "phasing" with winter weather enthusiasts mental wave signatures ) that trend factors less. Looks like I am going to be wrong about the pattern flipping all at once in the models, though. I was thinking last month ...when all this was a merely embryonic amid the panoply of long-lead tools, that once the physical detection entered the framework of the models they'd hedge for a bit... then perhaps demonstratively collapse into the new paradigm... Yeah, at one or two points along the way, whole-scale changes did seem to hedge. But, that "all at once-ness" either did not happen, or perhaps this, now, is some sort of less than obvious variant. Nevertheless, I feel confident at this point moving forward that it is more difficult to dismiss events out-of-hand. I like the strung out nature of that wave space, in general, regarding D6-10 entity handling. The variance in details...? That's actually entirely acceptable among the guidance sourcing - but is more of the typical variety innate to the state of the art of the tech, rather than the intelligent sadist design of the previous dynamic. Now that we're in a hiatus of kosmik dildo floggings ... perhaps we can get down to business. Heh..funny. Anyway, the parallel GFS looked like a grid concerning ice storm to me, by the way. That's a motif y'all may not want to dismiss in the probability envelope for that general three day period. The strung out nature of the wave mechanics makes sense do to the compression in the field. Personally.. I like it when consensus is above average, but, said consensus actually fits the limitations(advantages) native to the super-synoptic evolution. In this case... a cohesive singular wave phenomenon propagating through the flow, is not warranted. The acceleration of the balanced geostrophic wind values as S/Ws enter roughly 100 W does not physically allow for the formulation of events. Rather, wave mechanical momentum conserves along a shearing axis... The advantage to winter enthusiasm... is that a protracted event may set up. It could also quasi- ANA ... at one end... to perhaps a 30 hour mix ending as a middling coastal ... or even an ice storm, are all circumstantially favored through that period. Now, ...this could certainly change. This is an early outlook that balances in observations of limitations(advantages) where applicable. Should the gradient surplus look abate a little... other possibilities enter the fray. Should it even increase... that, too. But, the fact that models and their ensemble clusters appear all the same page for that general time frame, is interesting to me first and foremost for this new pattern look.

Ha! ...wtf... I didn't say nothin'

Ha Ha Ha

I'm a lesbian trapped in a man's body ... Oh! wait ...what poll is this?

Pedestrian down our way just yet...

Ray's 1978 redux is on this GFS cycle... Cleveland style! that's almost a dead ringer... Well, 500 mb it is anyway... That surface evolution leaves a lot to be desired with that much subsumed bomb potential in the mid troposphere.

Interesting... just like that ... compressibility is present over Florida ... Figures the south stream stays in tact for it alright ... right out in to the open Atlantic east of the Carolina's ... This rendition of screwing us over decides to liimit the western ridge such that N stream won't collapse in and phase.

Agree on the Patriots... I realize I'm contributing to a derailment wreck ... but, relying on intangibles to beat the Chargers (even) is heh... good luck. Because the Pats are not mathematically beating that team the day after tomorrow... I tell you what... of the teams remaining,... should the Chargers win I'm backing them... Of all of them, they have been the less offensive over the years.

Thanks for posting this ... You know, I really wish that magenta vortex over/N James bay was over Japan/Kamchatka ...and that blue-ness over there was over James Bay. That would be plenty cold that way. We don't need to carve our the Challenger Deep trench in the atmosphere ... and the balance geostrophic medium is thus not hugely sloped from the subtropical America to cP regions... But your right... the very best solutions for (I think) the type of storms folks want in here is more sluggish down S of 40th parallel, with a steeper thermodynamic gradient in the ambient 850... Through a nuke impulse through that? BOOM

Seriously this time ... (not trolling I promise...) but is the gradient still rife with lots of curved parallel lines - ahahaha I just can't get off my soap box on that

Influenced? okay ...no problem... "mostly due to the MJO.." Mm... I don't like that.. I think if anything the Pacific should have gotten better from a phase 8 present and the fact that it didn't improve .... that markedly, is a flag of less than mostly. That's all -

See ...that's where y'all lose me. I disagree Or, let me put it this way ... someone convince me otherwise. The MJO has been fighting to penetrate a phase 8 wave the whole way, and the fact that it is terminating directly at the COD is also another signature of wave interference there. The MJO's latent heat fluxing is not as effectively entering the mid latitude due suppression damping from negative interference. Which means it's ability to do any modulation is also hindered by super-synoptic negative. Frankly... if the WPO is positive for other reasons...good luck getting the wave to modulate as much out of the marine continent. You're statement that I've bold implies the MJO controls the pattern ... It's a pattern enhancer - be it positive or negative... But maybe that's what you meant?

Funny thing is... I remember a lot of bad winter calls in autumn. Ha, one case in point, The Farmer's Almanac. anyway, not including that one. But then this idea started convincingly abasing those calls given time...