Typhoon Tip

yeah i routinely get that backward ...wrt to the direction there. but i'm not sure i know what you mean by 'warm ensos behaving in similar manner' ... ?

not to be contrarian buuut... I thought climo on warm ENSOs was for early cold/snow turn outs fading toward early springs... But, I don't know where Feb lands in that plan (exactly) ...it's a fence month. Seasons lag...it's the only reason why Novie's aren't on whole snowier than they are, and why Febbies aren't bloomin. the latter is getting more solar than the former. anyway, ...the warm ENSO isn't it kind of paltry? . .. i also have a separate hypothesis related to it's scale/degree of anomaly being less meaningful in a GW where/when the surrounding medium is also warm(ing)... that skews the total thermal source/sink relationship and quite intuitively, a warm(cool) ENSO event in a warm(cool) earth should reflect differently... plus... again, i don't think enough homage is necessarily applied to the AO - not Ray's outlook per se...just in the general ambit of the efforts for seasonal 'casting.

deeper layers in coastals don't really promote alot of icing 'cept for rare scenarios. you get more of an isothermal structure below the growth area of the sounding ...which is why it tends to focus into snow to 'chutes to big cold rain drops along tighter axis... Also, with the high retreating east, there's likely to be some penetration west of contamination/CF... I wonder if we can correct the high to a slower depart? heh... don't get greedy -

there's even some semblance of a surface capture there between 60 and 72 hours. Low depiction stalls and retros slightly.

Bit of a competing signal betwixt the EPS and American cluster as we move through the last ten days of the month. As of yesterday (and it's really been trending longer than that as we know...) the American -based indexes are impressive in the AO and NAO... In fact, the Pacific isn't too bad (if you like cold) either as it's WPO/EPO are both neutral negative; which combined with a strong -AO, ... that lop-over in respective domain spaces on whole is a cooler signal for mid latitudes over North America. The EPS looks more zonal over mid latitudes admittedly ...but I have not seen a hemispheric layout from that mean. The operational Euro has a strong ...albeit slightly east based -NAO ridge up there in the N Atl... while the operational GFS has been plotting all over kingdom come but has it... Regardless of source... live by the NAO die by the NAO ...That index has more episodes of turn-coat than it does successfully achieving whatever is modeled, positive or negative. So we'll see. But the AO signal is coherent in the blend. I suspect the WPO/EPO negative tendencies combined with the AO ...those are pretty dominating loading pattern indicators so ... the NAO is an interesting after-thought.

I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up a bit more nukey in structure... perhaps even in now-cast time leads... Could see it all shrinking toward a centroid over performing low. Not many folks acknowledged my sentiments on this things structure, yesterday, so if repeating...sorry. But it bears some semblance to the mid level evolution of Dec 2005 ... Subtleties (duh) will drive the ultimate outcome and given to the rarity of the 2005 event and the notoriety of stinger wind phenomenon on the Cape and so forth...entirely different headliner content. However, there are some general similarities ... with nascent polar high in the vicinity/BL forcing over land butting up against the Oceanic boundary layer... while strong mid lvl wind max careens overhead. Just like back then... the resolution of this sort of 'hyper' gradient saturation event is key ...and it's meso-like requirement. That said, the experimental GFS that folks bandy about ... it shows a distinct attempt at picking up on those sub-synoptic scale influences... as it drills 1000 mb low to ~ 988 mb in 12 hours passing from southern NJ to just SE of CC... a proficient deepening that I believe is a result of very upright oriented UVM along that thickness gradient described above. In other words, this is trickier I suspect than folks even realize. Otherwise, I don't have problem going cold profiles say White Plains NY to Beford Mass axis... Climo of 1.5 S of LI should raise flags too. Marginal when/with a "correction vector" favoring dynamic obliteration of fragile warm thickness ...at night no less... If this whole ordeal gets weaker in these immediate ensuing model cycles, and/or somehow finds a mid level trajectory W of Boston than we'll talk ...other wise, this is likely to a cold solution. Folks, keep in mind...the GFS has a notorious warm boundary layer/contamination issue... probably related to improficiency with diabatic processsing ... This was quite commonly noted last winter ...and to some degree in the summer with dry BL promoting T1 temperatures of 116 F at Framingham in early July... Unless there's been some upgrades it's worth it to question that. It feeds back... if it's too warm, it lowers BL resistance ...low cuts in tighter...total profile ends up wetter and probably weaker too.

Frontogen is gonna be sick if that mid level translates like that... wow - I mean, if ur marginal in your thicknessess and that passes under your latitude ... that's bore a hole in lower troposphere.

heh, wrong thread - meant that for that countdown one. there's a palpable tenor in that thread about getting this winter going and ...well, it's already going. it's just not doing right here in new england - hence the extension of imby stuff... that's all.

You know ... this isn't a knock intended toward anyone but, there's levels of imby-ism... We see the edge of our universe as terminating somewhere around 90 W ...inside of which we're waiting on winter as though that realm within defines the progress of matters. But that's the outer "yard" ... Reality is it's been snowing at times for over a week out there in the midriff lat/lons... Winter's ahead of schedule by a goodly margin over this 'sector' of the hemispheric scope. We just have been edged on the warm converyor side of the trough just yet -

I'm a little intrigued... mainly because as that deep layer vortex opens up in the western TV area ...it transforms into vaguely negative tilted wave with vestigial ...albeit potent vorticity maximum. The wind pips are haulin' major azz there...some 110 to 120 knots at 500 mb. I mean, ...that sort of mechanical forcing riding over the interface between the near coastal waters and the land is like giving three points automatically to the home team. Plus, the low level thickness packing is probably too amorphous compared to reality with that polar high exceeding 1035 cresting through NNE like that. That plays a role... and important one. The 900 to 700 mb frontal slopes (elevated) can end up particularly steeply sloped and as the wind max than unzips over head, the UVM is then less sloped and more upright oriented in free space. That makes diabatic heat release a bit more proficient... destablizing the column further and causing more lift --> deeper surface pressure and well... 2005 Dec taught that lessen rather nicely. We may not know the exact or precise physicality of these important variables until nearer terms. Not trying to over state this events potential.. but, you have a strong, mid troposphere wind max passing 1.5 or so latitude S of LI with a relatively fresh boundary layer's dome-wall situated nearby just to the N - that usually doesn't end well.

For strictly snow -focused winter enthusiasts ... hate to say but the previous two cycles were better by a little.

Hmm ... perhaps a little intriguing as an analog. I wonder if that is > 50% ...all mass-fields considering. There are differences ... such as that +PNA -typology closed vortex off California in the right image ... not existing in the left. But, the open/potent wave moving up and over lingering west-Atlantic subtropical ridge, with at least latent ridge projection situated at similar longitudes (otherwise) out west, are in total bearing some resemblance back to Dec 9, 2005 This is 96 hrs lead in the oper. GFS on the left, off the 06z cycle. The 00z bore some similarities as well, but the vort trajectory was slightly farther west. Just something to mull over...

No one asked but ... that's going to depend on the rate of intensification of that fast moving low pressure. The interaction with the northern stream as the system is moving through New England ...that is a phasing scenario - the timing of which is typically problematic. How long it takes to coalescence whereby the system then is mechanically forced into a wild deepening rate ... it could take few hours longer .. effectively sparing the region. Or, it could happen a few hours faster too... sure. The 00z operational Euro was 'just in time' to get rapid deepening underway, which triggers the restorative wind/acceleration into the region ... (more NE). However, that was also a delayed trend compared to previous run. I only cite the Euro because folks seem to lean on that model more-so than than say the GGEM. Anyway, the situation should be monitored (duh) but more so than usual, the models et all have been plotting an unusual feature with that eventual phased deep layer bomb up there. The Euro in particular appears to actually model a 'sting jet' phenomenon N of Maine. That's afterward and not in time, however ... the fact that it's there is sort of suggestive of the system having potential.

It's interesting to see two storms that looks virtually identical three or four days apart like that. I mean surface ... aloft, major features contributing, the mechanics all looks like the same system-weird

thanks! . ...yeah, I know/knew where you were coming from .. I was just saying "caveat emptor" (buyer beware...). Just limits on optimism.. I suppose folks are tired of the long summer and the endless murk that's taken up persistent description of these mid autumn days (weeks it seems!), that even snow grains would be an appreciated change of venue at this point ... It's been pretty relentlessly uninteresting, huh

'bounce back latitude' .... It just means that the rest state of the atmosphere is not very conducive to getting those trough depths into sufficiently lower latitudes. ... The difference between the depth of any long wavy trough over top compared to that of the ambient 582+ domain to the south, creates too much wind. The 582 may look like it is in central Florida, but that's illusory if one doesn't know that if the flow stops pressing the trough down from the top, the rest state is actually aligning at a higher latitude. Thing is .. we do need gradient. Gradient is what drives everything. When there's gradient, the atmosphere does what it can to neutralize ... it's what generates weather. However, too much gradient and that produces too much wind speed. But it's hard to describe this stuff without using a lot of pricey words ... The problem from that point on is that any S/W (short wave) is thus no longer "differentiating" against the ambient fast sped up flow. Cyclogenesis mechanics weaken midway thru too much gradient. The reason why gets a little techy talky.... Short waves contain an average of about 75 to 140 kts ...weak to strong, in the middle troposphere. As the wave space propagates through the flow.. this nested wind max is concomitant... Now, imagine a short wave say ...110 kts ...about in the middle of that range. It's wind max is situated within the wave space of the total short wave trough. Now ...imagine this wave is sitting in a gradient rich environment where the wind is already moving along at 70 kts. The trough's mechanic power is reduced to 40 kts ... Contrasting, if you place that same short wave in a less compacted, looser geopotential medium the surrounding winds may only be 30 kts. Now you have a 90 kts of mechanical power. 40 90 which one usually has the bigger storm? ... But, be careful - these are not absolutes. It's really about balancing take-aways and add ins. There can be a 'shear' type of high velocity set up, but other parameters can be very large to offset the detriment and then there may be a fast moving bomb. Or, the other parameters may be weak, but ...the mechanic aspects are very powerful, and the storm ends up moderate with decent impact. There's a symphony of idiosyncrasies in the white noise of the wind. In a general sense ... if you see 500 mb heights > 582 over MIA, and winds over southern GA are over 50 kts prior to a S/W crossing the border up near the Dakotas .. that's a larger --> shorter scaled interference pattern.

folk are still on DST

Too much gradient ... The N/stream is bulling in but we're lingering with 582 dm heights from new Mexico to the lower M/A in the bounce-back latitudes. What that means is that as the trough comes down ...the heights compress in spatial distance between the lines... and when you get a lot of them, that's a gradient saturation = high balance wind flow outside of the short waves in the flow. That in turn doesn't work out too well for the short waves. Just something to keep in mind - too much gradient can be a detriment to storm strength; you'll get them but they tend to be weaker and/or very fast movers. So "favorable set up" has some caveats in that look..

why not... other than the rain anomaly ...seems pretty normal to me ... We've been dealing with the one outstanding metric, rain - beyond that I don't see anything in the hemisphere too terribly interesting or out of season. why not cultivate a good ole fashioned Indian Summer -

I did ...but it looks as though 'Tidbits updated his timestamps but the actual model content did not - ... not for certain but it's dubious.

That weak southern stream Miller A this next Friday is perhaps a little interesting to the winter enthusiasts. It is 'low probability' for occurrence - I repeat, low probability. Though it is 5.5 days away and not really in the operational GFS' wheelhouse (if that particular model actually has a wheelhouse), it's been in every run cycle going back several at this point. It's a complex interaction of major synoptic players giving a low probability for a light QPF, through a column that teeters with marginal cold. As fleeting are the chances as that run-on sentence implies... now that the MLB season has finally clocked its final hurrah, and now that Halloween is at last passe (two of the utmost Meteorologically important metrics ) ... we should start to consider these isothermal/dynamic layouts. Just entering a better climatology for cool corrections. Sort of an unrelated note ... I am wondering if the 00z Euro products didn't flush out properly. I'm a freebie-reliant consumer, which means ...beggars can't be choosers. However, it seems those panels are unaltered comparing to the previous night's run. I'm wondering if the time change might have caused software at these host sites to slip out of sync.

Ah ...gotcha - I thought that was in general, but it was targeting a particular goof ball - right... Castigation should know no bounds then -

I wouldn't make fun of it though, either. We discussed yesterday that wind is not a high confidence metric to guidance for, and that there is a "necessary" propensity to over warn the event. But the fact of the matter is, it was inherently low confidence so making fun of it is ..kind of aholey actually. You have to warn people... Momentum mixing and Ekman resolution issues is far from well understood. There are scenarios that have occurred that appear to have the same input conditions that produced wind. Which we got anyway...there's a couple trees down around town (rt 2). One of which was in my back yard actually...

I know ... heh. I realize through years of my denied chagrin that this site (and the Internet et al for that matter!) is an engagement in 99.99% enthusiasm and conjecture ... pretty much exclusively. Still ... I find amusement every day, coming in here and being greeted with optimistic appraisals regarding how winter is "clearly" very close... If by that we mean...at some point in the next three months, which by geological dating is virtually instantaneous, sure. As far the foreseeable future, however... mm. This all looks like seasonal; mind you, part of the seasonality is that models will rush the season change and patterns keyed into it, at least excuse imaginable. Which upon seeing that may be the cause for the elation tenor - That said ... this smart-azz jest on my part is just the sort of act that will cause winter to strike tomorrow ...ha! Actually (edit) I just saw the teleconnectors and there is some hope for colder aspect mid month - we'll see.

Death ... death lasts forever. There is no returning from that state, which by definition, is eternal.