Typhoon Tip

These are some of my favorite situations in the "weather as a spectator's sport" engagement. Watching others contemplate how they get to get this or that, when the reality is ... they most likely get nothing - wah wah wahhh. This may very well go down in history as a Great Bahama/Grand Abaco deal, with a ginormous, historically impactful Media headline gale for everywhere else... But, hey, CNN sure made their money off this thing, huh - It seems to me this system has stalled nearly stationary ...doing the thing the models had predicted - pretty damn amazing we have the tech these days to be so dependably reliant. However, that stall coordinate may be skewed E of where the consensus had it ... Perhaps only talking 20 or 30 clicks, but assuming when motion resumes and is as such along the anticipated NW to NNW drift before inevitably accelerating N-NE .. .all that, it seems to intuit a chance for an E adjustment. heh... 12z models coming now so we'll see... Also, the cloud tops over/of the circumvallate have slightly warmed the last couple of hours, and there some subtle signs the eye is more ragged.. I mentioned earlier it would be unlikely for Dorian to endure at those magnificent scales of structure; perhaps we're see some of that.. We may have a Cat 1/2 hurricane climbing the ladder by this time tomorrow?

I think it unlikely Dorian will continue to endure with the same structural integrity as indicated in the 5 am NHC advisory. (165 mph and 916 mb of central pressure) Over the course of the day ... it quite possible Dorian will become increasingly victimized by its own impact to the environment in which it depends. Interestingly metaphoric, too ... as hurricanes are a lot like Humanity in that regard - they both must keep moving and exploring new resources of/for energy lest they fester and rot in one place for having profligately chewed through their resources. interesting - I realize the impertinent jest of a weakening Dorian must come along as a disappointment equal in proportion to the specter of the bomb its self ... But, for those who privately covet a fantasy where Dorian drills a hole completely thru to the core of the Earth... causing the planet to fracture and calve into two distinct pieces that go on to finally just disintegrate into a new asteroid belt, the reality is, the cyclone is nearly stationary over a region where the sea slopes deeply on the N side of Grand Bahama and Great Abaco. That steeper, deeper incline probably means cooler water plumb is accessing due to upwelling/ turbulent overturning etc. We'll "sea" how it goes but I bet this thing has maxed -

Just thinking back whence .... as little as two weeks ago, how quiet the tropical Atlantic was. Some observationally sensitive designations to date, otherwise ... at the time rendered completely silent. Posts were matriculating in about the year without a season - if not explicitly stated, the tenor certainly palpable. Now, we have this Category 5 bomb and a constellation of other Invests between the GOM and Cape Verdi... It's not just the Atlantic, either. The western Pacific is suddenly bubbling with Invests, too... It's almost like some phenomenon must have passed over the whole planetary troposphere and proverbially uncapped it everywhere, simultaneously.

Semblance of a double eye wall... ERC nearing ? In any case, one must wonder what the status of Great Abaco island and Grand Bahama will look like when the sun rises over the aftermath ... days from now. I wonder if some of those cays might get denuded down to high tide sandbars..

People have to be able to vote for whom ever in the f they want - but should also be culpable

Yah... but I'd like to get this over with because I edge my belief on the side of r-wave residence and that 45 to 90 day thing... If we roll back into a warm pattern... we time a nutty November - which is right on top of my personal druthers. Who's with me! Can be 70 to 90 through halloween for all I care - if it gets cold before then it can't/won't last and in all likelihood the law of balancing anomalies is a cosmic dildo in December if it does. f-that

It's amazing how the Euro keeps trying to bring winter across the country in the extended...

Dorian's phase transition to extratropical is nothing shy of extraordinary ! It may enough be simultaneously both for several hours, with such an unusually hot, warm secluded core surrounded, by a rampart of baroclinic dynamics...

Well... I'll take a look - is if my opinion matters..heh. But, "if" the Euro indeed is/has trended west ...that may not be a trend that is final. We are on the D4/5 temporal relay out there between Hatteras and Cape Cod...which is where/when the Lakes amplitude in the westerlies' critical system interaction details will be occurring, details that are very sensitive to minute perturbations that cannot possibly be assessed at this time... That's all code for yeah... may be worth it to watch. But I wouldn't bust out the dystopian lootion and most towels just yet, either.

That may not be entiiirely correct I'm waitin' on the Euro... If the GFS is right, this is probably one of the more costly devastating events in U.S. history. It tries to maintain upper tier power post land interaction as it then rolls up the eastern seaboard on the beach the whole way to Cape Hatteras .. a considerable tick west of priors. I mentioned earlier that the Euro run may be telling as to how much Dorian interacts with that trough in the Lakes - that's going to be key in the cyclones polarward behavior as it stands now... Canadian takes Dorion along a coastal scraping ( west adjusted...) from the central Penn. of Fl, implicating a mincemeat stewing of (natural ecology + man made obliteration)/2 down there, but then a more pallid version but problematic nonetheless all the way to Cape Cod... just missing SE but probably close enough that surf/tide may be an issue - unknown...

Mm... Interesting. a "long time lurker" without publishing? or, B, a new exposure to this micro- zeitgeist and therefore green to the particular, more important, peculiar, social-media group... If the former, you should know better ( by now ) than to level a responsible, compassionate resolve for the well-fair of others at this particular group of return concentrated dystopian weirdos. Any reduction in the implication of any kind of Dorian-esque specter for that matter, will not be tolerated. I agree though... There's probably already catastrophic x-y-z happening to a-b-c on the Cays and Islands down there already ... but if we can mitigate beyond that by having Dorian's worst impact on the proper U.S. being drug -withdraw symptoms by said dystopian lusters, we're far better off. That way we may not have to also bear the equally powerful winds of AGW'ing's tie-in causality that's already on mass-media's drafting boards, too -

Can you imagine if Dorian just circular-sanded ( formulate sound of power tool in head while reading this ...) the entire Grand Bahama island down to a sandbar -

Some notables... 185 mph/ 911 mb ...

Seriously though .. the timing of Dorian's 'would-be' trough interaction with the westerlies' amplitude scheduled into the Lakes technically begins ~ 4 days from this 12z cycle. Considering the source, the operational GFS, that's only moderately confidence instilling - I'd say if the Euro starts sniffing out a closer pass that is coherently due to having a stronger trough incursion into the western OV longitudes on it's rendition of D4/5, otherwise ... it's just the GFS being the GFS. The problem is... in baser concept that trough is too flat and longitudinally oriented...such that when Dorian gets anywhere closer to ... roughly the VA Capes longitudes it should already be turning NE/ENE on a London trajectory that would put a Boeing Air Bus in envy - These models that are continuing to lift Dorian "tantalizingly" closer to eastern New England and NS appear to be doing so too much relative to that "flat" character of the open wave tough structure. But, that could be rendered moot either way if said trough gets spatially more amplified ( i.e., N-S meridian flow ), which unfortunately cannot be ruled out absolutely at this time range - but the Euro is getting ready to cross into it's wheel-house ...hence the sniffing -

HA HA HA toldya

My guess is it maxes at 205 ...central pressure of 882 mb.... Then, turns N and bottle rockets to Montreal, Quebec with such rapidity as to make it the first TC ever to succeed the 40th parallel as a Category 5 hurricane - ...Upon reanalysis, it becomes incontrovertibly necessary to redesignate, "HURRICANE JAMES" ...

Mm.. not really. Probably the biggest problem is allowing the mainstream civilian have access to up to the moment data .. that includes you and I unfortunately There are all kinds of false -flags in these reading technologies, particularly near the boundary between categories... We don't notice them so much when it's in the middle of a category, because we have "wind width" to fiddle with, such that noisy fluctuations are not even being noticed. But when a system being measured only has 5 mph of wind potential from being redefined up or down, there is going to be noise in the data that flops over the boundary - piggy-backed on these measuring trips, there are evolved corroborative methodology, and if those fail than there's no move to re-designate.

Lol - why exactly? ..I mean, other than it seems tauntingly deliberate as to shirk on one's ability to jolt dystopian "joy" circuitry with the sought after dopamine - It's okay not to buy that solution ... but I'm not sure the former "oddity" of modeled track actually should logically precipitate the latter conclusion. Fact of that matter is... if one were to take any 'missing' parabolically recurving trajectory and redraw it, it would look similar... Just because this one happens to be doing so 20 or 30 miles off shore the whole way is just purely of function of where that is happening.. But they all turn and high-tale it to the graveyard eventually -

What ...why? Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha... jesus guys. It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner - I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times

Heh. That's not demonstrative really.

This east shift isn't really new. Looking back over previous cycles the models really began that trend a while ago. That said I would certainly hope no one's thinking they're out of the woods on this thing down there.

Good

You may just be in hyperbole there but we are definitely close to any rank inside of top 10

That's actually been a concurrent deal on that ~ time range going back many runs actually... yeah, it's interesting- something more akin to mid October perhaps. I'm fairly certain snow in that part of eastern Ontario is a bit of a seasonal anomaly for early September - even at that latitude ... Let's not derail the thread - take it over to the discussion

HMON may not have been right about the timing of RI but... holy shit - this is one of the most rapid improvements in sate presentation over the course of mere hours I think I can recall - we'll see if it translates to pressure and wind.