Typhoon Tip

Yeah...I'll take your word for it. I've been johnny-come-lately with weather-related agenda as of late. I don't know.. turning over tepid air masses in between midland scaled pedestrian low depths, hoping to roll a seven on an EOFer in a some weird GW-stretched faux severe season ... it doesn't really interest me much. But, I happened to look the general overview around 10:30 and saw those warned cells and that general appeal on radar - it's funny how that lies like that. Satellite does that too! You can crash with undeniable, inexorable result absolutely destined to happen with these technological -provided evidences signing signature of certitude... wake up? sunny. It's as though "The Matrix" altered reality its self. This isn't that bad ...and like you say, there may have ancillary tools yesterday that dimmed this threat/potential in the front side of this low buuut, if the Universe has to work that hard to conceal its intent to f-up a perfectly good evaluation of a now-cast then fine. Ha

Mm... late last evening I mentioned the ominous vibe to the now-cast pieces that were ongoing... At the time, ...there was a rather sudden blossomed line of concentrated heavier shower activity aligned from SE Mass to the northern suburbs of NYC; this feature was moving N with limited or no back-building behavior on radar. It seemed to be developed along the nose of a lower level WCB acceleration, and with the models predicting frontal position where they were at the time, ... it all seemed to suggest that we'd get swashed in a DP spike and perhaps a more deeper layer, better mixed wind momentum scenario during the wee hours of the morning.. I noticed in my slumber... the sounds of the winds actually relaxed. Odd. NWS Taunton mentions, "...Frontal boundary as drifted farther south than models simulated with frontal position at 06z across central CT extending northeast thru the Worcester Hills then into northeast MA..." This was published to their web-site around 2:30 A.M. give or take... Indeed, as the light was coming up an hour ago what cloud parcels could be discerned in an overall gray abyssal ceiling ..were streaking from the ENE. That is not consistent with an pseudo-warm frontal passage and WCB punching up through the area. Interesting. Models and now-cast all were in agreement ... different reality unfolds when not looking. The vagaries of the weather at times seem so guided by the mysterious. Also at that time last evening there were tor-warned cells in western NJ and some ominous appeals on radar with bowing fragments as well.. Trajectories were such that anyone E of roughly a NYC-ASH ~ could be in for some similar action as the whole structure of this system was slated to cut the low up west of Boston ... rapidly deepening between 2am and noon this morning... It just seems that busted in the models... the present SFC chart depicted at WPC has a fragment low structure, with a distracting circulation E of Cape Ann, and a remnant 999 mb low near ALB.. I almost suspect that the models thought maybe that ALB node would be more dominate. It's deeper ...but the frontal tapestry is a hot mess, structured as though it the ALB depth has been abandoned (almost smacks as secondary repositioning, actually). Meanwhile, the low that is [probably] going to do the modeled rapidly intensity change near NYC or even just E. What all this means is that the NAM's 35 kt sustained WCB from 190 over Logan was never going to happen. That also canceled out the convective ideas, too.. Going forward, with the low passing right over head ... the backside wind threat is really going to come down to how rapidly it deepens imo. The winds will remain light with N and E motion ...perhaps even variable for a time ... as the pressure is FR...Then, as the low trundles toward Maine and beyond, that sets the regions up for a pretty solid Isallobaric wind acceleration phenomenon ... as the backside restoring forces briefly exceed the Coriolis..etc. I see those often. Most go without awareness. We just had one actually last week... around 2 to 3 A.M. as a matter of fact. There were sticks and fresh leaf fall debris littering the still wet roadways at dawn, fingerprints of the perpetrator heh. Gusts crescendos pulsed above the roof several times. Never heard a mention of it... CAA gets going in earnest in this afternoon. That can gust with certain import in its own rite with dry adiabatic convective overturning...

That west -east extending band of heavy showers ripping through Connecticut and Rhode Island and moving actively north… It's almost like that's involved along a pseudo-warm boundary and as that pivots north of the area we may see yet even more dewpoint temperature llv southerly flow coming into the region and then will have to watch that trailing line could get interesting later on

Kind of an ominous look to this thing right now actually. Supecells near the low over western NJ ... meanwhile the 00Z NAM grid pumps 33kt sustained over Logan near 15Z as its cutting west and dragging that same exit/entrance region right proper wonderin if cloaked spinners swarm Sorry in that warm wedge

Mm... maybe because of this ? heh, j/k ...isallobaric wind though -

HA! what... thermal inversion ...?

I'm getting subdued and less excitable with age... perhaps premature by some. I just don't see 31 kts in the NAM grids as much more than some elevated white noise above the rafters. NAM numbers certainly are not the end-all be-all of metrics, duh. But, ...winds are notoriously horribly handled. Usually over-assessed. Perhaps as a means to parry back-lash in the off-chance that it actually does over-perform (and sometimes it has ) ... we get more watches and warnings than seems to verify. I may be full of sh!t there but...it does seem over the course of my personal experiences, I'm perhaps 10::1 for advisories::verification. we'll see -..

Not to be dismissive but ... of more importance to me is not that cold shot. That particular range of ..well, any guidance for that matter, is going to be inherently stochastic - meaning... variable, which for our parlance of weather-related model observance, means it prooobably won't be in the next run.. Certainly, details will vary too much to depend on it.. But the big stem wound "hemibomb" that carves a black-hole through western Onatario has been strongly hinted in multiple guidance sources going back days only getting more prevalent with each passing run cycle (on average). It's not declaration in certitude by any means or intent... but, that's the type of thing I like to look for about now. Laying down big snows in the midriff latitudes of the Canadian shield... It's a good thing for winter enthusiasts should there occur an early season E-based -EPO while/if an antecedent snow pack/cryosphere is established underneath the dump zone of the NE cold loading pattern.

Could also be that we arrived into a new world where warmth pervades like, everywhere ... Perhaps it merely is not "normal" because it has not existed long enough yet to move the 30 year norms... 100 years...etc. If we are comparing a new base-line against an old one, that makes the usefulness less dependable. Remember, we're looking for "anomalies" to define eras of cool and warm ENSO states. Anomaly is generally determined via standard deviation ...in statistical mathematics, which means, find the mean... Subtract the events of the data set from the mean, square each result, ... find that mean, then, determine it's square root. See that word 'mean' popping up in there as the recurrent variable? Just keep in mind .. if the mean is no longer fixed in time, ... Put it this way, it may be useful to ask if those products that display the present states of the ENSO are normalized to account for a changing system. I think one of the papered reasons why the big recent El Nino did not register "as many" more typical global impacts of warm ENSO ... particularly considering it's own extremeness, is related to a system where the warmth/extent may be getting skewed by a steadily less validating comparison

Interesting that autumn of 1995 didn't make that list ... heh, maybe because it was soft Nina that year? I've never looked into myself but ... I've often mused about that syrupy late November thru December we had that autumn into early winter. I recall, somewhere between mid month and January one evening, sloggin' it downtown in Boston ... mesmerized by just how haltingly cold felt to even breathe. A friend and I had just parked ... probably, illegally, but the city sidewalks and thoroughfares were all too inundated for anyone to identify zones ..much less care to do much about it. Plus, it was about 8 o'clock. No parking ban - just clear and bone cold as we climbed over a semi-soft snowbank seeking a narrowed sidewalk, where the snow squeaked under foot - the kind where every step slid backward slightly as though to keep you exposed to the chill just that little bit longer en route to destination. The neon sign just down the way switches, "Temperature 9 F" ... I remember that, clearly, coherently, vividly. 9 ... In 1995, that autumn collapsed with no uncertainty ... I'd say approaching Thanks Giggedy if memory serves. Really, is to this day the ultimate front loaded winter. Perhaps 2003... But, we had snow on the ground in the western suburbs of Boston out there between 128 and 495 prior to the holiday and didn't see the ground again until the equally impressive thaw of late January - to this day... oh what might have been if that thaw never transpired. But long before that interruption, "I'm deamin' of a too much whiiiite, for Christmas" Anyway, I'm not sure if that stretch took any trophies home for minimum anything ... but it sure was damn cold, at times shockingly so - if I had to be honest, I was still just 10 years a new SNE resident up to that time, whereby the steady diet of mundane unimpressive winters since '85 really didn't have a lot of 'early cold' in the best of times. So, when late autumn 1995 wrought cryo-glory it was destined to be indelible in memory. But ...why? Why was it so damn cold so early, so unrelenting. Looking back at teleconnector records...there's nothing in the numerology and/or distribution between the respective indices that really pin-points much. I just remember the "MRF" day 6 thru 10 range at Unisys (mind us, this was a bit before ubiquitous internet weather charts that many are so privileged, if perhaps shouldn't be exposed to heh..) always showing a huge sloped flow from Alaska to the TV... then up along the EC, with these like ...ensemble line perturbation just perfectly placed in space and time, non-interfering. Damn... I wonder if we'll ever see that again before GW finally gobbles up our latitude for good.

Mm... I think that has merit, though. I more than less echoed that sentiment a month ago when the extended models ...particularly the GFS, began the seemingly perennial perfunctory winter start date by October 20th ... In other word, I understand where you are coming from and tend to agree... It's almost like a bigger, hemispheric "rushing a pattern" change in the models... almost at a seasonal thing. interesting.. But yeah, it's more or less what I'm thinking... that a "real" pattern is yet to really formulate -

As far as November... Seems more like a "pattern" not committing one way or the other. We may be in wait of hemispheric gradients to steepen up a bit more. Eventually exposing where heat source and sinks are situated ...the resulting/leading to a coherent 'base-line' look. I think what Will says resonates the best, the ensembles are 'flip-flopping,' as perhaps a reflection of models being guided more by noise than by said establishment. Hate to employ a cliche but unfortunately seems apropos ..things can change in a hurry when all that comes into focus... Some point of the several weeks and so on. Until then... about where we should be for this time of year ..give or take. I mean your dailies will never pin-point climate, but all things being equal we seem pretty normal.

tweet 1: contrary to popular defense mechanism .. I like the steady diet of coastals in october. my experience, that tends to parlay better tweet 2: this whole "nor'easter" is turning into much more of a waa push. There's gradient out ahead causing and easterly fetch, but this low cuts west and we end up 10c at 850 and it's not a big deal low at all.

There's a lot of wave interference with this in recent model runs... In fact, there's a discerned trend to really have the deeper whole-scale amplitude take place a day and half later beyond Sunday. These features are coming off the Pacific Basin at a low trajectory - i.e., not as much in the physical soundings. It's not entirely clear to me the models have a firm handle on what material they really want to use in conjunction with the L/W amplification. They could start backing off the lead - they could come back with it.

To be blunt ... what goes on in here is not much better honestly. It was back in Eastern, perhaps. Not here... The standardization and quality shortly after this platformed off Eastern's demise, both relaxed. Sorry they just did. Who knows why... Well, I have my suspicions -

Yeah, that could be it... And agreed - one would think that temps ...and thus, integrated thickness intervals, should be seen prior to adulteration by the artistry of the industry -heh. It just seems awful fast how quickly that's warming... But, the high is also not retreating in the best location... A bit eastward ballast - should impart a pretty hefty long shore fetch and forget it - I dunno... a few things need to happen for cold enthusiasts -

GFS may have warm biases (...or not) but so too does "October" Anyway, ... large scale structural components do have some text-book aspects about them. Literally...the nearer term Maine exit cyclogenesis and backside CAA looks right out of the K.U. catalog derived check-list, because at that time, ...it could be providing subsequent E.C. cyclone with cold air arriving 36 hours thereafter. There are multiple isobars crossing the sub-540 dm thicknesses with this lead system - i.e., deep layer CAA. The problem is then two folds... How much? 2nd, the models appear as though they are moderating that cold too soon - however, by what standards? I'm not sure what the recovery rate on air masses of the -1 or -2 SD in the critical thickness levels ( < 700 mb ) really is in late October. As 2011 demonstrated, sometimes we need to get in tighter to the event before the models "see" the extend/magnitude of that particular component. For that matter ... I'd love to share an email with the moder(s) at NCEP ..whether the global-based numerical guidance 'factors' in climatology prior to release and consumption for the public. I am wondering if that cold complexion recovery speed might be caused because if there is an anomaly the models "might" be working a bit hard to normalize -

Will and I were discussing this a couple weeks ago... the empirical increase in snow occurrences/frequency since 2000 or so - it's been common enough that "fluke" (I know what you were talking about ... I'm just using your post as platform for this opine) is becoming a stressed term to describe snow in Octobers. Since roughly 2002 ( I think we discussed) 8 of the Octobers, so roughly half, have measured. Squalls, synoptic ...whatever cause and flavor notwithstanding, ...white. As for as J.B.'s rip-n-read tweet above ...folks, I don't know if comparing El Nino autumns from prior to 2000 (1977) really apply. Can't rule out a causal relationship - even partial of course. However, something else appears to be driving this as more than a mere handful argues for a systemic change. Logic dictates...larger systemic properties and behavior of the atmosphere may not have been in place in El Nino years of the more distant past. Supposition: Personally I believe that a net positive anomaly in the oceanic heat content over the entire breadth of the Pacific Basin is actually a reasonably fit for the earliest climate-change modeling of the late 1980s ...Those primitive tools suggested that NE Pacific flows would tend to bulge from latent heat fluxing, and that meant ridge tendencies --> NW flows through the western chunk of the continent. Cooling for N/A continent was inferred.. We are witnessing more North American continental cold loading in to the 40th parallel... more frequently in Octobers (autumns for that matter), with more proficiency than we had really seen in the previous 100 or more years worth of climate. Whether that is caused by some artifact of GW or not... cold comes from the N And, this has been occurring regardless of native and/or immediately leading ENSO states.

Mmm... that just looks like the perennial base-line PNAP structure there. Every year this happens ...some one sees height bulge west and a pancake into a shallow trough in the east, and they get excited, when that's the base-line hemispheric pattern that results from a laminar west vector over geographic features.

... I've read some post in here re the October statistics as bearing some correlation with ensuing DJF ... or maybe NDJFM ... whatever. I'll just add this quick opine fwiw - My experience is that there is a 'tendency' for storm frequency/active weather pattern establishment during the cool transition season. In fact, I might be inclined to say pattern tendency ... However, that does not say much about temperature anomaly distribution ( an equally important distinction). But, perhaps most importantly, "tendency" is far from "certainty." In dealing with any public domain, one needs to be careful though... Because even in making that caveat emptor, suppose an active October then happens to not precede an unusually stormy active winter. Any such audacious Meteorologist will then be summarily bent over a ceremonial reputation ram-rod. The qualifiers are missed ... I dunno, in lieu of what filtering wanted to hear: October .... storm ... = DJF, Kleenex and lotion. I just don't have as much of a problem in seeing a stormy year parlay off of an active autumn. I'll leave it at that. As far as this thing ... the problem I am seeing with the GFS operational runs (and I'm not sure upon using the free products, if the Euro is doing the same thing..,) is that there is a leading convective feed-back issue near the latitudes of the Va Capes... The spatial separation (as in distance...) between that early spin up, and the main trough amplitude is shrinking on average across successive runs ... as that gap closes, the model "might" be opting to wait for better forcing to detonate a coastal low. But, if you look at the vorticity products, you really can see small shrapnel seem to spontaneously spawn in the flow there and sort of closes off from the inside out over 18 or so hours once that initiates ... This then feeds back (I believe) on an erroneous early low that even bombs quite a bit... i suspect as we get closer that will continue to correct smoother and any more meaningful coastal cyclogen waits for the main trough amplitude. So...that's long -winded (pun intended...) for describing a look more guided by convective feedback. A storm will likely evolve in the period in question but those details are highly suspect to me.

Heh.. perhaps you're right ... (bold) ... It's one thing about this engagement that does impel eyes to roll from time to time. Seems like 'crowd physics' at times, more so than then the atmospheric stuff that gets sent through the model processing...haha, like there's two model technologies: The ECM, GFS..etc... vs the people's republic of popularity and perception. The 'meme of the day,' they are sometimes like a spontaneous emergent properties of an equally complex system of fractals - this is tongue in cheek, but crowd noise is disconnected from reality at times, yet equally validated ... awesome. I haven't been on here every day as of late so am less privy, but it's just an observation of social-media over the last 10 years.

I thought last year was decent as far as that whole holiday charm goes... woke up to 8" of powder and still moderate snow globe aggies ending in occasional lowered visibility snow squalls and sun... Icicles were even noted ... I mean was Rockwellian -

Meh... you guys were also pokin' the hornest nest a little on that, too ... The GEFs ...yeah, theirs some subtle positive anomaly there but the flow looks relatively flat all things compared from the Pacific to the west Atlantic. Barring semantic arguments, "retorch" mmm might be construed as a bit strong imho - That said, (now the hypocrisy) ... there was some hint as of two days - not sure if others were aware as the faux early winter-gasm was still flooding dopamine and therefore probably missed... It may be a bit more coherent/obtrustive now, but obviously, continuity would be preferred.

Does anyone have access to 'repostable' products that display the spread of the EPS ...? heh...didn't think so... But, I'd be interested in where the outliers are pointing - my hunch is deeper

Yeah...exactly - it's impressive