Typhoon Tip

yup, the backside of this thing is actually not too terribly cold... so, it may bounce mild and drippy ... Classic cold advection offsetting during solar nadir time of year out there. We set stage... Many Davis' are parked at 32 with brilliant albeit sloped oblique sun. The advection terms can control the diurnal temperature variation now through about mid or end of Feb.

... I have to 'cuz they're so small otherwise -

My personal feelings on this is that the 'correction vector' is pointed colder profiled. How long that vector is (meaning...how much correction) may not be huge... but, it's pointed colder. Boy I'll tell ya... if that high were any more belated in departure, that vector would get huge in a hurry. Usually for warm expectations, cutting a 500 mb v-max under the S Coast with nascent boundary layer polar air in place ...doesn't end too well for the warm expectation.

I gave an analysis of the NAM's FRH grid a page or so ago (12z ..) and that description right that is just about precisely what it argues from roughly ASH to N. CT. to the Berks with more snow west.

It's fascinating ... Perhaps time will expose that it's like a heat 'catch basin' that occurs during otherwise neutral times. It's an illusion of an El Nino event in that sense [if so] because it's only warmer than normal against 1950 but not necessarily in a neutral ENSO in 2020 ... hmm The other thing, NASA ...NOAA... tea leafs in china... whatever, they may already "normalize" the anomaly for the hockey-sticking... (I'm calling it hockey-stickinig, just means rapid rise at the end of the multi-decadal curve). That would make the "actual" Earth-relative anomaly (as in present tenths) more accurate. But, the atmospheric component of that is a quagmire -

well...yeah ...in your defense, I wasn't even considering the recent spatial science/delineation of ENSO anomalies - as in, 'where' the warmth is located out there. But it shouldn't matter - if there is a muting effect that is secondary to El Nino's presence ...because the El Nino is concurrent against a warm backdrop ...yadda yadda... It still would be influenced the same way. The problem here is that in a 'climate flux' ... you don't have Modoki this... and Nino 1+2 that actually IN that same historical framework... why? because it hasn't happened yet.

Well not in absolute terms like "...are not" ... I just want to consider the possibility of the latter ... to open some worth-while speculation and conjecture. I don't believe I've made any 'declarations' per se - if I did I miss spoke. Hot vs cold ...undulations occur...system finds a neutralized outcome. Hot vs Hot ... no undulations occur ...because system has no physical reason to neutralize. I just strongly believe it is worth sciencing whether warm ENSO events in a GW spike might try to approach the the hot vs hot model ...not necessarily be there. Throwing in the AO mucks it up further.

NAM looks colder in the FRH grids... Haven't seen the pretty pictures yet. But linear diffferential between ALB and BOS on that grid argues for 4-6 with a quarter inch of sleet on top for places like western Middlesex out through N CT... with all snow at ALB. Wondering if there's a 700 mb elevatedd warm layer,, but... with the 500 mb mechanics tending S of the south coast I'm inclined to think that gets pinched off (if exists..) about 1/3 the way through this thing. Course...that's the NAM. I personally like this model in these nascent polar air/thicnkness compression scenarios though. I think it's finer grid picks up on those feed-backs... The EURO edged colder at 00z notwithstanding...

Ah...personally? I wouldn't be so confident in picking the effect of ENSO apart that way... Whether the effect of Nina(Nina) may or may not be physically manifesting at a given location/season, only belies it's presence ... or supports it, either way. But when it doesn't, it doesn't mean it's not there. It "sounds" like you're suggesting that? If so, ..no, it's effects are still ubiquitous. ..on going.. if only [more likely] being masked by whatever those other forces are hiding. 'Stateside' this and Philippines that ...I'd be careful with that. That very real and applicable concept is related to the AO part of this too. There are times when the N. Hemispheric pancake events and emergent blocking episodes will subsume the ENSO signal (though probably less than entirely...) and whether it does so and how much probably depends on the relative strength of either in time.. blah blah. Also, and hypothetically: El Nino is more than merely statistically shown to be a global phenomenon ... but, the majority of that history was in a relative quiescent/stable climate ... compared to the "hockey-sticking" we are observing world-over now. The point was/is ... that statistical inference/correlations may be a bit tricky. That's all... It has to be... A warming world doesn't supply the gradient distribution the same way - gradient is the whole machinery, period.

when do y'all think the Advisories go up for the scrambling low-end warner ?

wasnt' talking to you ...

Mm... it was vetted/researched why the recent 'mega' nino did less comparative global impacts - Winters since have also been odd relative to enso - 2015 ...etc

no...it's not. sorry -

yeah i routinely get that backward ...wrt to the direction there. but i'm not sure i know what you mean by 'warm ensos behaving in similar manner' ... ?

not to be contrarian buuut... I thought climo on warm ENSOs was for early cold/snow turn outs fading toward early springs... But, I don't know where Feb lands in that plan (exactly) ...it's a fence month. Seasons lag...it's the only reason why Novie's aren't on whole snowier than they are, and why Febbies aren't bloomin. the latter is getting more solar than the former. anyway, ...the warm ENSO isn't it kind of paltry? . .. i also have a separate hypothesis related to it's scale/degree of anomaly being less meaningful in a GW where/when the surrounding medium is also warm(ing)... that skews the total thermal source/sink relationship and quite intuitively, a warm(cool) ENSO event in a warm(cool) earth should reflect differently... plus... again, i don't think enough homage is necessarily applied to the AO - not Ray's outlook per se...just in the general ambit of the efforts for seasonal 'casting.

deeper layers in coastals don't really promote alot of icing 'cept for rare scenarios. you get more of an isothermal structure below the growth area of the sounding ...which is why it tends to focus into snow to 'chutes to big cold rain drops along tighter axis... Also, with the high retreating east, there's likely to be some penetration west of contamination/CF... I wonder if we can correct the high to a slower depart? heh... don't get greedy -

there's even some semblance of a surface capture there between 60 and 72 hours. Low depiction stalls and retros slightly.

Bit of a competing signal betwixt the EPS and American cluster as we move through the last ten days of the month. As of yesterday (and it's really been trending longer than that as we know...) the American -based indexes are impressive in the AO and NAO... In fact, the Pacific isn't too bad (if you like cold) either as it's WPO/EPO are both neutral negative; which combined with a strong -AO, ... that lop-over in respective domain spaces on whole is a cooler signal for mid latitudes over North America. The EPS looks more zonal over mid latitudes admittedly ...but I have not seen a hemispheric layout from that mean. The operational Euro has a strong ...albeit slightly east based -NAO ridge up there in the N Atl... while the operational GFS has been plotting all over kingdom come but has it... Regardless of source... live by the NAO die by the NAO ...That index has more episodes of turn-coat than it does successfully achieving whatever is modeled, positive or negative. So we'll see. But the AO signal is coherent in the blend. I suspect the WPO/EPO negative tendencies combined with the AO ...those are pretty dominating loading pattern indicators so ... the NAO is an interesting after-thought.

I wouldn't be shocked if this thing ends up a bit more nukey in structure... perhaps even in now-cast time leads... Could see it all shrinking toward a centroid over performing low. Not many folks acknowledged my sentiments on this things structure, yesterday, so if repeating...sorry. But it bears some semblance to the mid level evolution of Dec 2005 ... Subtleties (duh) will drive the ultimate outcome and given to the rarity of the 2005 event and the notoriety of stinger wind phenomenon on the Cape and so forth...entirely different headliner content. However, there are some general similarities ... with nascent polar high in the vicinity/BL forcing over land butting up against the Oceanic boundary layer... while strong mid lvl wind max careens overhead. Just like back then... the resolution of this sort of 'hyper' gradient saturation event is key ...and it's meso-like requirement. That said, the experimental GFS that folks bandy about ... it shows a distinct attempt at picking up on those sub-synoptic scale influences... as it drills 1000 mb low to ~ 988 mb in 12 hours passing from southern NJ to just SE of CC... a proficient deepening that I believe is a result of very upright oriented UVM along that thickness gradient described above. In other words, this is trickier I suspect than folks even realize. Otherwise, I don't have problem going cold profiles say White Plains NY to Beford Mass axis... Climo of 1.5 S of LI should raise flags too. Marginal when/with a "correction vector" favoring dynamic obliteration of fragile warm thickness ...at night no less... If this whole ordeal gets weaker in these immediate ensuing model cycles, and/or somehow finds a mid level trajectory W of Boston than we'll talk ...other wise, this is likely to a cold solution. Folks, keep in mind...the GFS has a notorious warm boundary layer/contamination issue... probably related to improficiency with diabatic processsing ... This was quite commonly noted last winter ...and to some degree in the summer with dry BL promoting T1 temperatures of 116 F at Framingham in early July... Unless there's been some upgrades it's worth it to question that. It feeds back... if it's too warm, it lowers BL resistance ...low cuts in tighter...total profile ends up wetter and probably weaker too.

Frontogen is gonna be sick if that mid level translates like that... wow - I mean, if ur marginal in your thicknessess and that passes under your latitude ... that's bore a hole in lower troposphere.

heh, wrong thread - meant that for that countdown one. there's a palpable tenor in that thread about getting this winter going and ...well, it's already going. it's just not doing right here in new england - hence the extension of imby stuff... that's all.

You know ... this isn't a knock intended toward anyone but, there's levels of imby-ism... We see the edge of our universe as terminating somewhere around 90 W ...inside of which we're waiting on winter as though that realm within defines the progress of matters. But that's the outer "yard" ... Reality is it's been snowing at times for over a week out there in the midriff lat/lons... Winter's ahead of schedule by a goodly margin over this 'sector' of the hemispheric scope. We just have been edged on the warm converyor side of the trough just yet -

I'm a little intrigued... mainly because as that deep layer vortex opens up in the western TV area ...it transforms into vaguely negative tilted wave with vestigial ...albeit potent vorticity maximum. The wind pips are haulin' major azz there...some 110 to 120 knots at 500 mb. I mean, ...that sort of mechanical forcing riding over the interface between the near coastal waters and the land is like giving three points automatically to the home team. Plus, the low level thickness packing is probably too amorphous compared to reality with that polar high exceeding 1035 cresting through NNE like that. That plays a role... and important one. The 900 to 700 mb frontal slopes (elevated) can end up particularly steeply sloped and as the wind max than unzips over head, the UVM is then less sloped and more upright oriented in free space. That makes diabatic heat release a bit more proficient... destablizing the column further and causing more lift --> deeper surface pressure and well... 2005 Dec taught that lessen rather nicely. We may not know the exact or precise physicality of these important variables until nearer terms. Not trying to over state this events potential.. but, you have a strong, mid troposphere wind max passing 1.5 or so latitude S of LI with a relatively fresh boundary layer's dome-wall situated nearby just to the N - that usually doesn't end well.

For strictly snow -focused winter enthusiasts ... hate to say but the previous two cycles were better by a little.

Hmm ... perhaps a little intriguing as an analog. I wonder if that is > 50% ...all mass-fields considering. There are differences ... such as that +PNA -typology closed vortex off California in the right image ... not existing in the left. But, the open/potent wave moving up and over lingering west-Atlantic subtropical ridge, with at least latent ridge projection situated at similar longitudes (otherwise) out west, are in total bearing some resemblance back to Dec 9, 2005 This is 96 hrs lead in the oper. GFS on the left, off the 06z cycle. The 00z bore some similarities as well, but the vort trajectory was slightly farther west. Just something to mull over...