Typhoon Tip

Right ..haha... wouldn't ...or shouldn't expect any other cheesiness -

I love those naming conventions up there ... they're awesome! Man, for years I've been tongue-in-cheeking over why-for the "pedestrian" designation for these memorable phenomenon - seems sort of ironical. But then again ... I suppose it could be like the ole horror cinema trope, where the creepy girls at the end of the hall in the dimly lit pal say, "Come play with us Danny..." It's Hurricane Sally, and she wants you to come play, " ...For ever and ever and ever.." I mean - who out side the delusional realm of Political Correctness ( ...yeah, it's called 'reality' - check it out some time... ) would ever argue that it almost made more sense when they were always just female names ... Of course, back in the arrestingly self-aware 1950s thru early 1970s of mid 20th Century culture... Excluding the vagarious unpredictable tempest of the feminine intent and purposes for a moment ... why not name hurricanes "ball buster".. Or, how 'bout "head lopper," or just "head-roller". I mean you know... something indicative. "Island denuder where dip-shits developed a society and now we all have to feel sorry for them'er" ... Let's get creative here! Kidding of course... yes yes one is compelled to compassion for splintered foliage wrapped in building guts and body pieces... Wreckhouse warning - awesome. Gee, wonder how/why they cobbled that expression together.

Yeah..y'all got a humdinger of a hybrid transitioning to extra-tropical Nor'easter, huh -

I was attempting to poke the dwindling Trump supporter hornets nest. It's encouraging - actually - that there was not more in the way of typical knee jerk reactions from my doing so - but that could also be a reflection of anyone actually reading what I write. Ha! The real story there is the apparent spat between the NWS and NOAA. First, NOAA appears to have tried to come to Trump's defense, and as the story espouses, this was in bad taste to the NWS. Others should read and judge for themselves, but do so with the usual caveat emptor in mind that you are consuming any information at all via the modern tech-based-societal circuitry of shimmering morality and ethical standards for which information ownership-to-delivery, is now conveyed ... ( ...in other words ... don't ) But the NWS' Dan Sobian followed up with, .. Let me assure you the hard working employees of the NWS had nothing to do with the utterly disgusting and disingenuous tweet sent out by NOAA management tonight #NOAA,.." ( c/o CNN). Be that as it may, the gist of, "https://www.cnn.com/2019/09/06/politics/noaa-tweet-nws-trump-alabama/index.html" Granted, CNN is pretty shamelessly socially engineering it's headline practices these days. So often I attempt to corroborate their story and contents against ..oh say, your NPR's and GBH's of those organizational ilk. It is coherent that CNN's headlines and even embedded prose delivery is spinning. Somewhere along the way ... "corporate media" sold out and began targeting an Americana, a population that is now too dumb'ed down by modern conveniences to think for themselves and need a f'n Venn diagram just to tie their goddamn shoes and will believe anything for someone else's profit ... Either that, or the idio'sphere has always just been an untapped resource to target manipulation for the same ending goal ... now merely exposed by connectivity ( I kinda like that, too). But I digress. Point being, the whole "dispute," aspect should be taken with a grain'. ...comes across as though NOAA is jumping on the sword for Trump ...which, amazes me. Why in the f anyone breathing would sacrifice anything in the observable Universe for that c-s!ckr is so far beyond logic that the whole thing must be in suspicion as a "trumped" up story - who knows what really went down.

Looks like Trump might have been unfairly ridiculed ,.. "From Wednesday, August 28, through Monday, September 2, the information provided by NOAA and the National Hurricane Center to President Trump and the wider public demonstrated that tropical-storm-force winds from Hurricane Dorian could impact Alabama," the statement read. "This is clearly demonstrated in Hurricane Advisories #15 through #41, which can be viewed on the center's website.”

People have keyed an entertainment/"joy" circuitry into the specter of weather/naturally occurring drama. I'm not lamb-basting you per se ...but people live and breath and are quite happy ( or not...) in San Diego, where the weather is uninspired in those ways, just fine. And neither state of happiness or sadness has anything to do with big storms and such... That's the evidence - weather matters specifically for whatever specific reason, to those ...in here. I agree with Scott though - ... it's rooted in the greater/better capacity for human curiosity, really. We have to understand curiosity from a ...evolutionary perspective, for lack of better phrase. Human curiosity evolved as a mechanism to enhance their survival? Boom, what was that? ...go see... boom coming, move tribe. Boom not coming.... either way, tribe survives. Other animals 'get out of the way' but, we just do it with vastly more sophistication. And that investigation isn't taking place without the boom, first. In deference to Scott's context, it's hard to hear booms on 78 degree laze faire weather days. See... it is possible to want to experience these big things without also wanting to see people get harmed. You have to do the former to understand how the latter - that's really why the dichotomy exists. But... I do take exception at time with the 'joy' loss --> pissing and moaning thing. That closed lust is more of a perversion of the above virtue -

I think we're actually discussing similar aspect - Your talking point ( a valid one! ) has to do with people taking extremes in general - I don't argue that and in fact. I'm just offering plausible explanation(s) - it's endemic to society everywhere. No one wants to compromise on anything - rooted in a smoldering basis of identity crisis that is causally linked to the information boom. Oh deal ... I'll try not to digress too far but, if we look back in history, every time information forcibly tsunamis'ed through a population, said population tended toward populist/nationalism ... Educated perspectives that at least attempt the virtuosity of an objective perspective... there is a global modality in play, and it fits that mold. But, part of that is fear and insecurity, and contraction toward traditional perspectives is easier. Thus, hard-liner in nature, less open-minded and less capable of compromised and/or seeing middle-grounds. This happened before WW's I and II with the radio ...and a lot of conflict of the middle decades of last Century were also likely related to the advent of Television and the specter of outside influences triggering uncertainty in otherwise status-quo/regional biases. Suddenly exposing the world to .... well, the world, isn't a good thing when said world has the power to destroy its self trying to protect traditionalist views. We don't want Global duress ...because it wouldn't be like 1940 - not that that was good by any stretch. GW is part of that specter of uncertainty and fear - a lot of the denial is based on that, and that is why there is this apparently excessive polarization. For those that contract, it's simply non-existent. For those that attempt to be realistic about from science/math and rationalist points of view ( however successful in objectivity, notwithstanding...), for those they get frustrated and then they push toward the other side and there goes the middle ground - poof.

Actually ... weather, yes... Climate change? the opposite ... there is a wanton counter-culture toward the veracity of science, itself, a movement that attempts to evade the implication and specter of CC... The cause for that is hugely digressive and complex, so - I get what you mean by weather though and agreed - I touched on that since... We are preconditioned to the ever more illustrious cinema, so much so that if things fall short of expectations that get us as stimulated/aroused .. "there" in the "movie", there is a tendency toward dismissal. Basically ...we're all assholes in that way - well, "people" are. A person isn't...but we know how that goes - Anyway, Gloria was an event that broke up a growing number of dearth years and that's just unequivocal -

Agree here ... however, I was attempting to plumb that a little deeper into exposing the "fault of our gods" if you will... If folks were not inundated so much with increasing frequency and vividness of descriptions ... ( and mass media is hugely part of the phenomenon when they headline casts with " ..compared to x-y-z" ) ... Sometimes a storm is just a storm. It's not a failure or a bust or whatever, because it didn't touch-off some odd dopamine release that seems to trigger in some individuals. If anyone 'negates' Gloria, they are futile to listen/read. I suppose you could say the "hype" itself busted... but that's the human faulting -

I don't understand this reticence or dismissive sort of disregard tendency that goes on surrounding Gloria in 1985. Fact of the matter is, that was a Cat 1 hurricane moving at 30 mph,; combining 75 mph winds with a 30 mph forward motion imposed a significant threat... And at minimum 2/3rds of that power verified at the ground .. causing a significant grid impact even across much of the interior - it's broadly eastern limbed tropical storm force wind field penetrate considerably far inland. I was living in Acton Massachusetts at the time... about 30 miles as the crow flies west/NW of Boston up Rt 2, and even that far removed we had many turbine roars with leaf litter flitting over roof tops and tree canopies. Plenty of tree damage downed and tangled up with a spaghetti of powerlines was dangerous, to mention... and we were out for days in that.. It was a well forecast, beautifully behaved "Long Island Express" model CV cane, so this "Meg" treatment is a baffling and bullshit frankly... My hypothesis is, that was the first of the modern superior coverage/dystopian histrionic storm era - really, the event heralded it in, and 'dystopia for entertainment' media had begun. And wouldn't you know it... because it had to 'just be' a Cat 1 and not a Cat 13 to really snort the storm coke ... Ruined people's high - t may as well 've been a bust. Perhaps not exactly? No. But there is this palpable storm lust that goes on with these things in the modern era of cinematic reality we stimulate ourselves with, such that typical storm topography isn't quite textured enough anymore to meet with predisposed unrealistic expectations. Few long words... but Gloria was not a mere scattering - it was a perfect inclusion in the 30 year periodicity for LIEs ... If you guys are waitin' on some kind of Cat 4 run from 50 miles E of Cape Hatteras to Mt Washington... hope you live for 10,000 years because that's probably what the return rate is on this preconditioned idea of storm excitement.

GFS operational ( ...haven't paid much attention to the ensemble members/means ...) has been particularly fanatical about over-coming typical track perturbation odds or order to no-problem streak a CV cyclone clear across the Atlantic basin ...just so it can quintessentially end up thru the "key slot" lat/lon near/NE of PR. Dorian just did this ... perhaps there is something endemic to this season that is improving base-line odds? Actually inclined to think otherwise ( ironically..), but here we are. Unsure - but, I jokingly threw up a post several days ago that showed an idealized denudation of southern New England just like all the responsible and sanely objective posters claim to want to avoid ( ) ... Anyway, the GFS' giggedy may just be the times and the bell-curve of seasonality, and we happen to be introducing buck-shot cumulative chances to the modeling circuitry and there we go - something gets thru.

Fwiw ... and I'm sure others are aware of this - or should be... The mean nadir going back a decade doesn't typically occur until the 15th thru the 20th ... There are a few years as others have noted where the minimum is achieved at an earlier date. Anyway, I suspect that the momentum and back-ground do not really favor the earlier nadir scenario. Whether that results in historic lows, notwithstanding. I suspect whether we do see that or not, we're losing ice until the Equinox. It'll be interesting to see -

I intend to experience 10 of 'em equal or surpassing

haha... I know. But man... what I'd give to see that... and dread seeing that at the same time.

Probably 227.4 sustained last report before the NULL-space outage abruptly silenced in

I have no idea if ur kidding here or not... but ...no just in case that's not teasing - it's "how you get it done" - it's a good example - I said nothing about whether that happens or not. just sayn'

Are your sure ... denuding the cape of all infrastructure may mean a whole winter without OES updates - j/k James

mmm... nope. Tease requires it were ever suggested otherwise - ...the "crowd noise" may have tenor'ed in such a way that that allowed people to get carried away in hope ( not atypical for the obsessive "lensing" that goes on in here ) - or, the interpretation was just off period. When either happens ... reality loses the battle. Either way, the models have never made this a threat here ...not really.. and the surrounding pattern didn't/doesn't really support it either.

Now this is how you get it done ... Negative anomaly NW/ positive anomaly NE... 'cane has no other choice - the only problem here is... it's 370 hours away

Well ...yeah, and in that same spirit of "semantic fairness" ... the rise in the NAM hasn't been exactly overwhelmingly coherent... The lay-folk web-access site over CPC has it more like languidly elevating beginning two weeks ago ... finally succeeding at some point over the next 10 days. So, yeah. It's not a hugely convincing modality as you/we can see. Nevertheless...some slowing in melt rates is plausibly related. The thing is, the Arctic is sensitive to phase changes because of physics to put it bluntly. The thermal tolerance for ice->water->ice is narrow. Such that subtle variations in thermal contribution may have a seemingly larger proportionate response than one might think or be aware, if we're talking about some hypothetical formula of ( sun + dark vs ice covered albedo ocean surface + salinity variance + 1°C ) ... alter any one of these variables and the system presence a change, but if more than one of them gets altered that significance hockey-sticks in a real hurry... and so on... However the real equation of environmental factors that determines ice retention in the summer really works... we do know that the system is sensi ... So I find it intriguing that the GEFs begin signaling a relaxed negative Annular mode and then a week to two weeks later ...monitoring showed slowing... That doesn't seem like coincidence? But you and I are not parked out on the ice cap in a research hut either.

What really needs to be done is a deeper statistical analysis of past -AO summers. A good start; of the three 'hot months,' June, July, and August, when ever the three averaged negative in the Northern Annual Mode, what were the temperature anomaly distributions those years, both as scalar values, but also relative to the oscillation's SD curves. That kind of analysis might begin to expose a secondary trend ... revealing at least the plausibility of systemic change ( the elephant in the room .. notwithstanding), change too often lost in the din of climate noise. For example, suppose there was a -.5 SD mean in the AO in 1955, and the hemispheric temperatures were X. Then, in 2019, there was a -.5 SD mean, and the hemispheric temperatures were Z ... ( X - Z ) = some positive or negative value that in fairness, may not mean much? However... if this were expanded to a bigger comparative population, such that utilizing (x̄ - ȳ), ... where (y1+ y2+ ... + yn)/n = ȳ and the same for x̄ ... if the result equaled a positive number, that is a better finger-print for actual change.. I'm sure this sort of number juggling is being performed everywhere there is a reputable scientific process focused in environmental/atmospheric research/problem solving, but for some reason, I haven't found any published research that specialized in a relative AO to temperature anomaly distribution approach like that ... as a 2ndary precipitant study that might help to crystalize an image through the obfuscating blur of anomalies ( often used to hide truths and lies eh hm ). Primer: ... Negative NAMs correlate with warm temperature anomalies above the (*) 60th parallel. During those periods, (**) cool temperatures tend to occur below the 60th parallel, known as mid latitudes. Naturally, this overall pattern/distribution of temperature anomalies above and below the 60th parallel ... reverses during positive Annular Modes. ( * that ~ demarcation of latitude around the hemisphere does not take into account topographical/geologic imposing variances, and also, fluctuates higher and lower in latitude depending upon the season). ( ** relative to normal AND "pattern" ...a latter distinction often lost and/or strategically elided in efforts of deniers, as well as less learned in general. Relativity matters... a warm pattern may be so warm in 1900, and that same pattern may be cooler(warmer) at another time and space of different geological/environmental arena, a.k.a., the European heat waves now, versus similar pattern manifestation back whence). This has been a rather robustly +AO(NAM) summer. The Alaskan warm summer ... really should be compared to past positive annular mode summers, and also, other northern latitude/geographies around the hemisphere compared. Intuitively ...this is almost tongue-in-cheek and anyone objective has a pretty solid idea what the results are likely to look like ...Oh, some value of positive across the board, where -1 SD summer ins 1890' did not produce the same wamrth as this year...and so forth, but, taking a study through the arithmetic caries more weight for everyone save the eerily growing numbers of population that as an entirely separate and sociological concern, have come under the impression that is okay to say and act in adversarial 'no' in the face of Universal fact(s), that the right to do so is merely enough to refute the reality the do not want to accept. Very recently ( spanning the last two weeks ) the mode has been relaxing toward neutral/positive, and is forecast to continue to do so into September. This is just a heads up; it's an intra seasonal ...at times, intra-weekly time-scale teleconnector, so this is not a statement/intention for seasonal forecast.

I haven't been a part of this conversation stream recently so pardon if this is more at obtrusive ... It might ( or not ) be worth noting that the GEFs have been elevating the mode of the NAM since ~ mid August. In a vacuum, that putts the "had been forecast" part of this bold statement in question for me. As we know, a positive 'Annular Mode reverses the temperature anomaly correlations and would result/conducive to better ice retention. This is purely linear-statistical discussion point, however, and does not consider the bevy of other environmental factors that "synergistically" can also effect melt rates ...such as salinity variance and momentum, dark sea vs albedo surface absorption of solar...etc etc etc... Nonetheless, some of the graphical slowing in recent 10 days does actually fit that GEFs modality of the NAM in at least conceptual acceptance -

Nice try at reverse psychology James - ..solid A for effort here

The S/W mechanics slated to time the alley-oop capture of Dorian won't be coming on board into the denser/realized sounding domain until this time tomorrow. Subsequently ...depending upon that system's mechanical power will have a bearing on how the flow tips more S-N, or remains more longitudinally biased along and off the Mid Atlantic. It's a sensi interaction anyway, but the stakes are high; we wouldn't need helluva lot more to get a left'er track N of the Mid Atlantic to materialize... Right now I'd side against that? but it's also preclusively moronic to suggest a stronger relay off the Pac can't take place ... It's popular to roll-eyes and play that defensive game like you're not really hoping that happens ... and forcing an overt conservative facade, but for those who are intelligent, they know it's something that should be monitored. It's interesting because this is a predicament more akin to extra-tropical cyclogenesis proficiencies in the winter that we oft need contend with when we have S/W rollin' over shallow long wave amplitudes - such as this.. But only here, we're trying to capture scenario.