Typhoon Tip

18z NAM has bunch, huh

Meh... the Euro erroneously bullies that southern JB vortex/N/stream S into that whole set up like fist rape .. That southern stream ( or quasi southern stream ) D7 probably stays more coherently separate ...if the model verifies up to that day right in the first place. I do at least 'appreciate' the model sloping the southern aspects of the trough back toward the west though, because the SE height compression would do that so is acceptable. But man ... get a load of that - 30C 850 mb plume of air it has wobbling around southern Canada for days..

I mean to say 7 into 8, btw

funny you mention... there's definitely an STJ vibe -

D8 Euro is a bomb regardless of what the D7 has... That D7 chart can only do one thing, NJ Model nuke

NF's gettin' like 32" of snow in 10 hours out of that 120 hr Euro ...jesus christ. Probably a narrow band of paint peeling sleet along the warm front transition ... the kind where it's jagged balls stuck together than driven along by 50 mph gusts... They should create a warning criteria for bullet sleeting -

starting to sniff like despite all that's transpired across this 'hoping journey' ... the original insights and experience may prevail. waste of time

yeah...GGEM's likely not right because ...well, it's the GGEM ... but I rather like the idea of enhanced icing-type events during the period in question. The GFS later on for Dallas/N. TX and so forth ... notwithstanding and likely extreme too, but we have vestiges of a fast flow/STJ with confluence in Canada and 'scooter' highs being modeled outright anyway, let alone the rec ... Just seems clocking an icer or two are just as plausible to me.

I like the 4" of acceted ice the GFS has for Dallas metro at the end-a next week ... 2.5 days of moderate to heavy rain into 26 F

It's the vast majority of need... You have to DIFFFERENTIATE ... Sorry to yell...just trying to get that point in to people. If the flow is fast, and a S/W moves into that region ...the net approaches 0... as you do, you get less responses everywhere... until you are at 0, where shit nadda nothing takes place. Everything in the atmosphere happens because of differential process. period. There's nothing else driving this stuff. Keep in mind, also, this is the science - how it pertains to this particular set up is a separate discrete analysis. I'm just pointing this stuff out as possible explanation for the models backing off. Because from what I am seeing actually depicted from the various sources.. the S/W is getting lost in the flow up there.

Starting to see why the models are backing off a bit as we get closer .. The problem is that the wind velocity at mid levels ahead of the western OV [ apparent ] short wave are not actually differentiating with respect to S/W enough because of that antecedent velocity surplus... S/W 'disappears' in streams that are already fast and that's it.. game over ( in relative amounts that is..). Anyway, I've tried to explain this a thousand times and it doesn't seem to be very well-received - probably ignored because it's bad news whenever the topic needs to come up... But, when the flow is very fast, S/W's get absorbed.. .and when they get absorbed, they don't have mechanical ability to trigger restoring jet structures... which in this case, is the post frontal up-glide -- destablization and breakout of lag QPF... etc... Go find the S/W over the western OV and notice the wind swell ahead of it are already modeled over 110 kts everywhere! I've been discussing at length across recent years ... that velocity surplussing in the atmosphere is a detriment in some cases because it is, in a 2ndary sense of it, a destructive wave interference in the relationship between large scale base-state synoptics, when then placing S/W spaces into said field that is already screaming. The large scale 'cancels' out the power of the smaller scales... There is only so much mechanical energy available to the atmosphere, which we know to be true. The Earth only rotates so fast and the density of the atmosphere is a constant... such that PV=NRT combined with the Corriolis in the equations of atmospheric motions can only result in so much .. .Well, if the large scale already expresses all that strength, the S/W are screwed - one way to think of it. So, this OV S/W is having trouble in the models inducing the upglide over the west side of the front.

Yup and I mentioned something similar a few posts ago ...how if the standardized pressure interval/contouring on the modeling charts were more 'discrete' ...we might actually see a closed low scooting up S of LI as it is already - agreed.

Enabling ...

Look on the bright side ... if you fell in the Boston Harbor at that temperature, you'd be dead inside of five minutes.

And ...that is an anomaly, too - relative to that experience.. Usually even that is too liberal in the models and what verifies is a bit under. But in this scenario that's really a very intense mid level jet that's running up west of the boundary, and there's likely to be a bit of an anomalous restoring flow moving back up across the baroclinic field and up along the elevate frontal slope back over the region. That happens anyway in these "ana" ..( or whatever f cozy euphemism makes us feel good about calling it ...) set ups, but they have to overcome dryness in the column as well as NVA beneath the elevated lifting area..which adds to that gobbling up falls and making the sky more virga like. I'm guessing at a bit more than usual, however, because of that stronger jet back up over Albany and throughout W-NW regions at elevation.

it occurs to me ... folks may not be thinking about this - or are...who knows. But, we're looking at a standardized PG layout on these charts. What may appear to be pure ANA by layout/construction of said standard when then adding QPF paint, may in fact be exposed as an actual closed ...albeit flat surface cyclone if the intervals on the pressure gradient were more discrete.

Too bad the GGEM is what it is because that's lit up man ... Like, trends the weekend blue, then threatens a moderate ice storm before loading up it's la-la range with Miller A seasonal achievement scenario - ha, next run it'll have a comet impact .. just sayn'

Brian, the GGEM this morning crushes your infrastructure out of the grid entirely this weekend... heh

Basically ... per my own experience with these lop-over deals, I would expect very limited realization NW of this yellow annotation below

Mm .. and folks should also be aware, forecasting accuracy may be at a premium, too - typically these sort of quick succession wave patterns will bear out increased error in handling timing and amplitude from run to run. But there may also be more semblance of something around x-y-z date(s), just be ready for less certainty about details until shorter terms.

There's something of a colder complexion type event(s) out there around the solstice ... perhaps more than one given a day or two. May be nickle-diming our way through that week. These are tougher to glean at extended range, however, because they are 'in-between' the tele's type systems. They are not being presaged by any very obvious 'Archembaultian' philosophy of large mass-field correction - which usually are suggestive by observing bigger modalities in the mean of the teleconnector progs, where events tend to take place. Since we don't presently see a coherent PNA burst ... ( although the NAO may be offering hints here... ), I'm inclined to less consolidating for now. But the ensembles are very loaded with opportunities in there with enough consistency across multiple runs that's interesting. Icing may be an issue, too -

Should be a fair amount of yard ponding by late afternoon..

Those linear demarcations are probably just terrain enhancements ...heh whatever - But, I was looking over the bevy of disappointing runs from overnight and it does occur to me, that if that lead S/W ejecting off the Pacific in that quasi-zonal flow out west happens to become dominant ( 12z Wed through the Rockies ...), more so than the trialing mechanics, that would encourage a colder solution along the eastern seaboard. The N/Stream is dominant ...then, rather convenient to the warmer solutions as of late, it suddenly pulls NE with rapidity.. That may happen, but ..if the lead S/W is stronger underneath ( before that escape happens ) that would push up the timing of an eastern seaboard cyclone chance, when there is still cold banked in there. It's wishy washy... but it's your only hope if that thing doesn't somehow end up more marginal - which is a different low probability outcome in its own rights

icing chances appear > than normal in there to me.

almost looks like NWS must've used that pretty much down to the pixel for their early snow coverage -