Typhoon Tip

Yeah anyone in their right mind is really buckin' for a systemic grid failure do to a catastrophic ice storm

Suppression really isn't the problem... It's more of a fast flow/compression ...limiting stream interaction... Those key interactions (or not) will have an impact on where event profiles situate -

I also disagree with some of their synoptic points - ...this high pressure is not North Atlantic ... not sure where that interpretation is coming from, but it fixes into their reasoning on p-type which to me is a glaring error.

It all reminds me of an amped version of the famed, "Snow Bowl Game" - Patriots vs Raiders back in 2001. If the compression overall forces the positive rotation of the trough axis (admittedly more speculative than the following ...) while the cold should win out and force things S given all... than this corrects - regardless of "days and days and days" that's not as meaningful when knowing that fast/compression biased flow types cause bigger errors out in time...and, considering that the governing mechanics are still over the open Pacific. The days and days aspect is merely because humans have created a tool that goes out that far. Doesn't really mean much beyond that - But, I'm not speaking or intending any sort of absolutes here... I'm making valid conjecture for folks to consider ... because no one can say anything I've brought up can't come of all this... Hell, we could see a powerful S/stream system still end up S and now we have a fast moving coastal bomb. Not impossible either... But of all, I do see the ALB-CON-Coastal Maine cyclone egress as unlikely without a low probability realization of major phasing.

I may be off here... But, I have a lot of experience over decades at this point with observing modeling, versus subsequently what tends to happen ... just from a 50,000 foot perspective. I could delve into a lot of complex terminology and so forth but the bottom line is, positively tilted waves (which I believe this is destined to correct more toward do to the compression/velocity saturation of the total super-synoptic scale hemisphere) tend not to bring along giant realization of QPF numbers. Maybe this will be the exception? Okay... exceptions occur at all scales and dimensions of weather-reality. But excluding the rarefied result for a moment ... I suspect the next correction, after the models stop trying to tunnel through the arctic air the way they have been... will be to cut the QPF down by 1/3 to 1/2" ... Part of the problem with conceding to denser BL resistance and displacing of the lower tropospheric frontal topography (in the vertical mind us) is that sloping and repositioning south means that we are reducing kinematics for lift ... tending to spread it out into a light field ... with less in the way of stronger/focused frontogenic axis. Thing is, we can also get a decent IB snow plume too.. but even that is limited in amounts by an obliqueness in the atmosphere. So I probably managed to sound esoteric anyway... oh well.. But I see this as just trending toward a middling snow event with sleet and mix/ZR more narrow than the previous solutions that tried to fist the high pressure/CAD using flat-wave mechanics during a compression flow. I've almost never seen that happen... Having said that...there is a chance this comes in more amplified and entices the N stream to buckle up more... but I foresee that as a lower probability total result from this range do to the delicate precision required to time the intermingling mechanics in a fast flow. That's something the models almost never get right from this range, either.

We need to be careful ... it's possible that, although our arguments against the west solutions were certainly valid/justifiable ... scientifically rooted concerns ... (summarily ignored so that people coudl do their paranoid neurosis act as usual ) these runs could also be based upon sampling/data sparseness. It's probably fine ... Unless the whole scale flow above the 45th parallel from British Columbia to NF changes construction... I see a track from Pittsburgh to Albany through Concord, NH axis as nearly impossible and always was the case... A final nail on that limitation hammered in by the fact that regardless of west or east tracks ... all guidance types have maintained a +PP (significant imbalance at that) situated/draped from N of Lake Superior to N of Maine... That initial circumstance, to add, a featuring that remains nearly static during the system erosion attempt ... made such a track with all of a 993 mh surface low so physically impossible it makes one wonder what kind of physics they're actually running in these god damn tools. It's very difficult to phase streams in a fast flow/compression super-synoptic set up/evolution. It can happen, but the stream timing has to be very precise ... skill not possessed even by the Euro beyond D5 ...which is a spatial-temporality we've been dealing with all along up to this point. Anyway, point is...since the possibility for more SPV morphology and isohypsic torquing is not technically 0 ... We really need to see all of this at a mimimum of D4.5 ... By then, at least one modeling tool will be entering a fantastic performance curve, and others should/would be well on their way ... Namely, should the southern component come off the Pacific/and/or suddenly get sampled/assimilated as a stronger entity...we risk going to go through the west annoying cycle(s) all over again. Why? ... A stronger southern stream wave would ripple out a S/W ridge ahead of it... even if not really observable in the curvature plain of the geopotential medium.. the force is there... Once that gets E of mean L/W axis over SE Canada (which precedes the southern stream passage by a day ...day and a half) ...that is instantiation of phasing and the high speed timing attempt comes back into play. I really need a white board to illustrate this ... but hopefully some of this can be visualized. I give all that 20% chance...

Extremophile microbes found in residential water heaters

Hmm.. interesting question... I was buckin' for wide-spread grid failure 1 hour before Patriots go time ... Therefore, this ahole that lives in Tolland Ct gets to wallow in the crapulence of seeing both a dystopian ice fall and knowing that the entire Patriot fan base of SNE is f'ed to watch the AFC title game. J/k... I don't know Kevin. What, 1/2" ? I think that's what NWS calls "warning ice" I could almost envision this thing busting the present runs so far S that the worst icing is but a 10th of the inch somewhere down 10 miles above the south coast ...and everyone above sleets down to 1/2 mile visibility on top of a 6" of front side thump. I tend to agree with Will that a surface solution west of Worcester Mass is highly unlikely given initial conditions to then overcome... I also think that with the open-wave nature of the total deep layer, that we may see a correction south with elevated warm layers too... We'll see on that.. . That's one school of thinking... If something exotic happens though with those mid levels... we could have more icing but ... I tend at this time to think that the actual transition between S-IP-ZR-R is narrower on the right side of those ptypes.

Despite these runs... this is probably 5" of snow ... 1.5" of sleet, 1/3" of glaze... flipping back to wind whipped light snow and flurries with the sound of crumbling paper in the trees during gusts. Or maybe double those ..whatever, but if anything that's the warmest this gets NW of Boston. That's my early call...

Me neither ... no way. not when what's filling in said CAD is that massive a surface +PP situated quintessentially N/NW of Maine by so little distance...

Perhaps ... I was focused on the surface features... Yeah... that N/stream getting involved at all is mucking these runs up... It could be that the N/stream involves but the whole construct shifts east(west) ... I really get the opinion that this is no different since three days ago... Every run in between has been just throwing out plausibilities. I'd like this thing off the Pac ... 48 hours from 12z this morning that starts happening.

One of my funnest memories of rompin' in the winter scenery from when I was a kid was in that era ... We had about 9" of snow crusted over with enough freezing rain that you could run from the street and hop onto the yard and literally glide all the way across the width of an acre without punching through. Up and over subtle contour changes in the lawn elevations too - it was surreal... We had something almost like that last year. I was up in Dunstable at my in-laws house after one of those icing events in December...They have a huge field that had a small amount of snow ...and about 1/3 or so of glaze. I walked out and it was punching through about every third step. Then, there was the echoing sound like your hear on a lake... seriously. It was the ice fracturing across the open field. I had never actually heard of that happening, but know now that it can 'field ice' can make the same sound.

Ha ha... was kind of hoping some one could post an image that shows that difference - it was intended as 'leading' but yeah... I can't see enough of the difference -

Meh... he's discussing more of the same aspects we covered over and over again about cold, dense air forcing things south. If one wants the popsicle headache... viscous air masses require greater momentum to get them to move. So, the rotation of cyclostrophic flow doesn't penetrate the cold air very well If a storm develops inside the cold air already, that'd different - that means the momentum required to get the cold air to move was sufficiently large. But we cannot disconnect the rotation of the low from the low its self... so the low goes along where the rotation is... If the low establishes along the 'kink' inflection of the front... if the air mass out ahead of the warm front side is a big massive dome of thick arctic gray goose poop, the slow ain't movin' through that sludge man. that's why these f'n runs that keep tunneling a 996 mb low through a 1036 mb back polar-arctic hybrid air mass look so fubar... we'll see.

Not sure what other's are seeing, but from what I am ... any differences between the 00z and 12z are beneath the threshold of making a sensible variation ...

That's true Will... I remember 1/2" glaze over a 6" snow in 1990 I think it was... and noticed that it was more resilient to 40 F afternoon a week later. Funny ...but I specifically recall noting this when I was kid -

There's too much focus on "PV" ... It's the flow compression from basically Cuba to James Bay and all points in between that is the problem... Yeah, I get it - the two in this case are probably connected, still.. the understanding needs to focus on fast versus relaxed flow restoring. Those two play out differently. The fast version imposes intrinsic limitation in the ability for a fluid medium to structure cohesive "curved' forms of amplitude... That's why these features are "open wave" structures ...probability wise... a repeating motif for the next two weeks of this new pattern if the gradient between James Bay and the Gulf doesn't enter an idealized 80 dm ... or whatever, but less than 120 f'um five

while salient advice ... the fact that someone always levels this ...everyone concurs with it's usefulness and truth, yet every model cycles resorts to the same vitriol... tells us that the issue has more to do with something else entirely. These people are capable of learning, and maturing/evolving toward a sophistication of the engagement ... one where the individual doesn't react with a mood shift at all. But they don't evolve ... why? This is about what the model shows at the moment they see it - and, there is a very real ( if not troubling ) sort of emergent dependency there. Take weather enthusiasts at all scales, from beginner enthusiasts to Mets ... they seem to become more like model enthusiasts, and during a post-modern era of rich stimulus to choose from, this gets distilled into an intense quasi-obsession... The model enthusiasm isn't really about the practicum of deteministic weather foreccasting ...Oh there's some... What is sought, though, is a "rush," one that is experienced by dramatic model illustrations ... That rush is similar to a runner's high. People need their drug... they want it at the moment the model is seen.. if they don't get it... they react - learning and evolution has less to do with getting to the rush. That's why this saga replays over and over and over - its' because that cycle has no learning curve. It's a sensation they are after. There's some of that prior to the model-by-web era anyway... the seeds of that vulnerability to a kind of enslavement to the drug were always there. They just were never cultivated like they can be now. How many times did you look at a weather map on the 6 o'clock news (the royal "you") and see a storm up there for D6 ...then... it was gone by the time that D6 was D2 ... ? You felt the same thing... This era we live in compresses that whole phenomenon into short durations ...and with greater amplitude swings. Kind of an interesting social-dynamic versus technology influence thing.

Pretty solid consistency huh

essentially ...I agree. But with caution - in fairness, you can have higher velocity flow phasing ...but it's rarer. There is d(t) requirement in the N-S axis that is harmonic with the d(t) in the W-E... If those are off.. the system's phasing potential smears less proficiency along a gradually increasing destructive interference ...until there is non at all. The idea ...if the W-E is moving at a ludicrous speed already, that N stream has to be handled within that frame work of moving parts with pretty exquisite precision - good luck getting that done from 144 hours out and a bunch of mechanics still over the Pacific... Just another run...

They are not confused either ... The "coders" are not coding for bullshit details that are going to be wrong in the first place - ...leaving those out is vastly more likely the pragmatic recourse... People coming along and using them to give a dopamine rush for how awesomely cryo-dystopic the run looks based on colors, ... then bargaining in vitriol like we don't know they really want it to happen ... is tantamount to a form of shall we say ... less than entirely rational. Group psychosis is more like it

I'm kinda kicking myself... I extrapolated over that a few days ago ...but in the interim, advised dropping that from threat assessing - which appears to be neolithically incompetent on my part seeing as ever since than there's been this like super-natural forcing changing the model to make sure I look like a giant asshole for backing away from those original insights... Kidding of course but jesus -

It's back to a more aggressive N-stream involvement ... I would still proceed with caution on that working out too well.. The flow is really quite fast/compressed and that western end of the SPV "scooping" in that curved isohypsic structure like that is less than very frequently observed in velocity saturated flows. It stresses physical believability -

Why are y'all spending any time dissecting the idiosyncratic absurdities of the snow products when it's been bludgeoned over your heads for years that those are coarse and inaccurate ...rough-at-best 10::1 canvas products... It's not "confused" it's doing what it is programmed to do... Not sure why folks acknowledge that ...then post like it's offensive or something.

26th might just repeat all this ...