Typhoon Tip

It happens with striking correlation coefficients - ... the first post is almost 1::1 guaranteed to be, 'x model looks better on this run' amazing...

mm, I feel pretty good about doing that now. Although the Euro took a bit of a hit on that last event it trying to drill 6-10" across SNE last week, that sort of error at < D5 is rarer for that model. I'm willing to cut it a break one or two bad calls along the way, when in general it's longer termed performance seldom displays that sort of wrongness. That, and, the S/W mechanics are relaying over land into the denser physically realized sounding domain so that should supply some additional credence - thought admittedly...it would have to be admitting to no drugs ..haha. kidding

This is kind of like 'threading the needle,' if perhaps in more of a holistic way. We're used to that metaphor where needles are thin, so...the margin of error is spread over a smaller latitude. From 84 or so + hours out we are hoping the dart targets us ( or not depending on what one wants) Even tho Wednesday's deal may end up a bigger spatial event by dimensions and so forth, we are still in effect .... narrowing probability for actually getting this to happen in time. So, in this case ...that's our needle.

Too detailed a perspective - though probably correct nonetheless. Just say the flow is too fast and the waves can't phase. That should 'bout do it -

That, right there ...is the tedious egregious nature of this engagement lol. Watching the formulation of rationalization ( denial of truth ) by spinning things up down, left right ..whatever, that is the delusional process unfolding. That's what drive me to distraction... It's like 20" of snow is about to strike the megalopolis from DC to Maine, and someone says, "So, we get through a few inches of snow, and then it's spring - I can deal with that. It's not so bad" or whatever they need to polish them minds from having to accept - Shut it! stop -

The fast flows go both ways as far as limitations and corrections, though. Just because there is a warm, underpinning height anomaly stretching from Hawaii to Spain ...eh hm, doesn't mean there has to be warm air at mid latitudes, particularly when the velocities everywhere are such that commercial airlines are handed out record breaking West to East land-air-speed records like Pez candies. What was the recent one 801 mph. Jesus... one could take off JFK at 5:30 am and make the 8:50 meeting in London Ridges don't tend to be very amplified in the spatial orientation in rasp atmospheres, either. Troughs are forced to shallow out because the fast flow absorbs mechanical power and saps the wave strength. Ridges can't balloon in latitude as prodigiously, either, because the x-y coordinate wind stream mitigates storm --> latent heat release reduces, and the ridges stay flat. I mean that's the ultra watered down description. The models seem to have to keep correcting for either of these scenarios pretty routinely ... That's why we've seen what... four different times when the models were attempting these pig warm bubbles over eastern N/A since mid Novie, yet we've verified all of them as 55 F mist. It sucks...and a kick in the winter-nuts for snow enthusiasts, true...but I don't care about that. I'm talking about the behavior of modeling versus verfication. They've tended to be not more than, or last longer than 24 hours. Maybe this time will be different - mm I doubt it ( which means it will and the first 83 F day in Logan ever in January is about to take place..). Anywho... I think much in the same way the troughs are minoring out and their storms ... weakening and trending east relative to mid range modeling tempos, as mid ranges near ridges will tend to pancake and we'll end up with briefer warm intrusions.

Hypocrisy run amok ... NAM anything for "synoptic corrections" - hopefully, that's not what's really happening. Now...undoubtedly, here comes the disingenuous torrent about how it's really about " no we're just doing x-y-z" nice. But what drives that willingness to compromise one's standards ( if not common sense and reason ) to such a scale and degree of inadvisability? Even if there some truth of the tongue-'n'-cheek claim for why the NAM posts, it's like comedy - there's always a percentile of truth in there. Scott said, " I hope it comes back west and rains..." Out of some form of Schadenfreude meets with vindication on some level or another? I can relate. Sometimes my own hypocrisy has to save me. Because in moments of that resent, I find myself hoping the technology infrastructure fails altogether. That way those seeking the joy/void filling thing by way of this "accident of technology, glue-sniffing modeled high" ( which was never the intent of this technology ... ) are forced into rehab ... That would be entertaining! Just knowing they wonder dazed through life trying to figure out how to reintegrate a reality that is more profound than the ephemeral fleeting of psychotropic thumb flips on a portable phone screen. Ha ha ha-ha ha. Ah well...be that as must. Then I realize, wait a minute - then I can't look at that weather charts either in such an advent of technology loss. Moreover, impugn society on social-media. I'm always amused when reading "blogs" anyway that chastise modernism - people taking shits and complaining about other people's stink. Hypocrisy has served to lubricate society ever since the industrial revolution has put Humanity in a situation where they have to surmise morality on a dime and make quick decisions. Usually, their conflicted interests.. Hell, I guess we all use this shit for different reasons. And this is a hell - it's beautifully dark, and alluring, like the temptations therein. You start out, some hapless soul. You're deprived on some level. So, you find a drug that eases the anxiety of your life - but like drugs, it's false. It's escape. It's not the real pathway to salvation. Oh geez! That sounds like the intro to a marketing wrap, a manipulation by religious sermonizing to show one the way ...No! I find any organized religion or doctrine that imposes some systemic belief system on one's spirit as one of these most putrid achievements of mankind outside the execution of the a-bomb. But, though I am subjectively comparing ... it does seem there is something of a bit of value to the hell comparison... Hell is at the end of a road paved faux intentions. And drug escape, whether charts or heroine, it's all the same. And, Satan exacts his interest on that spiritual loan, when the stimulation is taken away, and the withdraw challenges the very endurance of man. Yup...I'm having girl troubles again A lot of posts over the last five pages that I've wasted another 20 minutes of my life scanning ... describing this tendency for the mid week thing to miss east, in turns of phrase and cadence that - I'm sorry - exposes your frustration. It doesn't take Hannibal Lecter to read into that... But, Will and I warned everyone four days ago, that the system mid week was either going to, or was very likely to, suffer the same physical stressing and minoring out as the previous. The underlying scaffold of the flow's construct, nothing's changed. You've just wasted too many of your woken hours spanning the last four days...trying to fight planetary physical prominence with your will - how's that workin' for you? Lol.

Weird ...you'd think a warm winter with no snow would be more your speed - ... mercurial I guess

I've mentioned this recently too but I've also noticed ...this doesn't seem to be a factor as much as it used to in the past. Hard to say why, though sophisticating in assimilation techniques is ( duh ) most likely available. But also, I've noticed a very subtle tendency to over assimilate S/W's if anything in recent several seasons. It's almost like biasing decimals on the stronger side as a normalization/standard-deviation correction factor - no one's going to notice a over-cast' storm quite as much as the unders

Oh, right ..heh, I didn't honestly look at the previous chart... I just arrogantly dismissed it as a piece of shit at 991 in a punch bowl. But in fairness, you shed 19 mb in 12 that's technically a bombogenesis

GGEM's 991 mb ENE of Boston Light ... tough characterizing that as a nuke to me but to each his own - I guess in a dearth of activity, we start desensitizing and lesser gems start to dazzle

It's actually a lot better here in the interior at 34 F and not even cat paws...

That's the wave space bottle-rocketing through the N-Pac that's contributory mid week... I mean just looking at that and how it fits into that surrounding tapestry, determinism is a daunting dream - good luck.

Heh... "still time for this to go to shit" reminds me of that joke ... Some dude dies and goes to hell. He gets confronted by Satan who says, "We're not infinitely uncivilized in our ruination as recompense for deeds of soiled souls .. we at least give you the choice of what where and how you'll spend eternity .. Shall we begin the selection tour?" The dude sees all these people standing around naked .. feet submerged in the shit of their smuggest enemies, to a depth somewhere between knee and ankle high. Huh? What's more, they are all holding saucers with donuts and coffee? Wtf. Mind you, he'd just seen hundred of parallel dimensions and universes, where the reality is unspeakably transcending any putrescence known ... So, although bad, the ignominy of enemy's shit at least gets donuts and coffee - fuggit. Next thing he knows, he too is naked standing in the shit of his smuggest enemies. A saucer with a cup of coffee and donut in hand, a voice booms through the ether ... and it says, "Okay everyone - breaks over. Back to the push-ups!"

It probably comes south and attenuates as it does... 4-6" where this one fails, that succeeds or something. I just have a tough time believing bombogen feed-backs but again, like I and apparently Will have been cautioning, ...these short-comings can be overcome, it's just a matter of whether the rarefied anomaly gets injected into the flow that is capable of doing it...

OKay...have seen it. Yeah, I'm not too put off by that solution actually. It appears to be a compromised result of the fast flow and conservation of mechanics just at a paint-brushed perspective. Note, the mechanics are situated on this run's initializaiton over the region between Alaska and Hawaii, during an era with a falling PNA... This latter large scale circulation character change makes it complex at best how/what is being handled in that vicinity ...which obviously will bear upon what gets ejected screaming with beady eyed rage through the west ... jesus

The fast flow can be overcome ... Don't think in absolutes - just in case. It's a game of probabilities. It's just that when the flow is speed contaminated/compression suppression, the probability is more against. But storms can happen in those extremes. You just need an anomaly relative to that flow, capable of overcoming. The deal later this week still has a modicum of uncertainty there...as the governing mechanics are over the vast Pac domain so -

Here's what's gonna happen... Over the next circa decades, maybe sooner, maybe later ( picking which one based upon some assholier than thou head up the buttness reality we need to believe in...) the HC will have expanded to engulf the mid latitudes ... Around that time, the polar regions will have warmed so vastly - or vastly enough .. - that they no longer impose the same ambient gradient girdled to the warm height regions of the planet. The flows will relax everywhere. Prolly 200 years ... who knows.

I find difficulty speaking of this/these subject matters without being pulled into causality. So don't take this as refutation over anything you've said... I don't believe the "threats" the past generations that dealt with can really be conflated with the same specter of threat that is associated to GW. I really agree with Dr. Sonjay Gupta's op Ed earlier in the summer, that described in a pullout bold statement - nicely quantifies matters: "Humanity is just not wired to understand the specter of Global Warming" - Back whence, they dealt with the corporeally observable Nazi threat, and the corporeal observation of Pearl Harbors smoldering aftermath and death... The sense of urgency was footed in an actual animal adaptation that is common to all species - reaction to physical stimulus. Seeing is believing...smelling is evocative of ancient memories for a reason. And hot spits drop the handles. GW has no such advocate. And Kelp forests ...unfortunately are not it for the Factory owner in Chicago on the other side of the world.

Oh I’m sure the Euro’s about to roll out the end of civility as we know it… lol yeah no It’s really kind a like what Eric was talking about the other day… How these extended range monster storms do have some usefulness in that they describe kind of a background probability more so than an actual occurrence. I think it really relates to that here; And I’ve hypothesized why…. We keep seeing these types of big ice storms out there and they’ve yet to come to fruition doesn’t mean that the pattern isn’t conducive it just means that we’re not getting the set ups near terms to cash in-so to speak

heh... no - hence the phrase, "ground based" ... that's 'relative to the earth's surface,' which is a stationary object, relative to the combination of the air plain's velocity, together with the velocity of the moving air. The plain's velocity, relative to the moving air, is still just 525. The air plain has to move at certain velocities to maintain lift. At cruising velocity, which is at level altitude, it's typically in that gate for 80 to 90 ton vehicles. So if the air is moving 200, the 'plain still needs to move 525 in that air stream... but to the outside observer on the Earth's surface sees the air stream and plain combined velocity.

right ...it's nice because it doesn't try to overcome the velocity saturation and has a weaker later bloomer that is moving through faster than the 00z version, like it should -

This is cool lookin' Below is a cut-away of the 270 .. someodd hour of the GFS over the Great Lakes, 500 mb synoptic snapshot. Note the ovoid annotation? Those are 150 to 160 kts indicators on those wind flags. If one were in a commercial airliner ... with a typical thrust velocity around 525 mph and were flying at the 500 mb sigmal level, your 'ground-based speed' would be Mock 1 - the speed of sound

heh... speaking of which... Haven't looked at much honestly today ... In a twist, I have shit to do at work - it's been slow but ebb and flow. you know how that goes

I still think the 35 to 50th parallel band across N/A ... east of ~ the Plains, is tip-toeing and getting lucky through an ice-storm field of landmines. I just wonder when one gets stepped on and that other shoe falls. What is happening here is an atmospheric - planetary geo-physical circumstance of having the Rockies topography and the modest +PNAP constancy existing in tandem with an expanded Hadley Cell. The increased at time, velocity saturation and uber compression is a separate matter, but a real one. That fast flow - you better believe! - is partial in why this weekend's gig is going to end up a blown up ravioli... In fact, I'd argue next weeks may suffer for the same speed problems and that fact that before the S/W moves E of roughly 110 across mid latitudes, the wind flags are already approaching 75 and 100 kts in some cases, and you can't roll out the critical lead S/W ridging that has to feed-back constructively into the total wave space --> lending the cyclogen..etc.. It's like a foot ball game... No edge threat, means the middle collapses, and then you can't establish a run game and the offense stymies... heh. somethin' like that..., it's to point out that there are transitive relationships. But that's all separate matter to the ice-storm we've been dodging ... The sleet bomb was an attempt ... but those types of inverted sounding disturbances are favored for an emergent reason associated with the expanded Hadley Cell. In one sense... intuitively that makes sense; expanded HC means warmer means less snow and sleet is less snow... But, what's really happening here is more fascinating than that scale of refinement. As the HC expands it is enhancing the potential ( in the means ... ) for confluent structures to ephemerally and more at length, at mid troposphere over ~ the 55th latitude across N/A...a condition that is perhaps enhanced further by that static, foundation tendency for modest +PNAP that always is in place E of the Rockies/western N/A continental topography. In a lot of ways ... the oreographic nature of N/A helps to fight back against what would probably already be a naked exposure to the HC encroaching on the lower Ferrel latitudes. These confluences and their lower cooling of the troposhere are masking the effect of a warming atmosphere ( for one...) overall, because they 'wedge' cold air and we end up with the inverted soundings with warm layers aloft N of roughly 35 and especially the 40th parallels. This predicament ... "should" favor icing events... I keep seeing the extended GFS flagging these... but when they get closer, the normal modeling chaos appears to disrupt those signals in lieu of other emergences that are either similar or just different, but altogether... moving really quickly in the fast flow that is typical of zonal - which is also a velocity circumstance that is being augmented worse by higher heights in from the south constantly pressing against the seasonal nadir attempting to be reached associated with boreal winter.