Typhoon Tip

You're reasoning after the bold aside for a moment ... the seasonal trend is a tough metric to bear at this point. It's really unrelenting. What makes it downright - dare we say ... - "outre" at this point, is that it is doing that west bias thing regardless of any kind of pattern augmentation/permuation that is more or less readily observable. But, that said, ...the underlying "pattern" really hasn't deviate in my estimation - there have been changes in the gradient at times... But the r-wave distribution ( space and in time...) really hasn't deviated since that gig in earlier December. I mentioned a couple days ago ..that I thought the end of this month into the first couple weeks of March had a chance to really see that pattern change ... heh, about half that expectation is currently being met in the bevy of recent runs - particularly the overnight suite showed really coherently by as near as D4 ... about 2 to 3 isohypsotic reduction from the lower latitudes to the 60th parallel over our side of the hemisphere. That means the geopotential gradient has slacked off by early next week ... And with that, the velocities lower everywhere, ...the southern stream has a chance to conserve S/W mechanical wave spacing without getting crushed and sheared into oblivion because the planetary torque isn't already used up in the PV from hell! ...and the AO is falling as an index measure of that happening... That's all well and good, but what stands out to me about the overnight runs is that the longitude position the ridges and troughs ( R-wave distribution in space and time ) are unchanged. They just have less wind and gradient flowing around the ups and lows. So all this means, stronger storms ...moving slower, but probably running along the same cyclonic conveyors and well..guess what, that's exactly what we are left with next week. The western ridge is too far west to support a fuller Miller B realization - from what I see... And with the velocities ( ambiently) lowered, there is less "stretching" to compensate a less than optimal ridge-trough long-wave structure... It's like - hate to say ... - it's a believable D6/7 butt-bangin' as there's less theoretical reasons to argue against it. If that ridge in the west bumps closer to the front Range longitudes... then we'll talk. But if anchors over the western cordillera or even west coast like it is in the means, this low probably corrects even more west in future guidance. There is one caveat here: I'm not sure the N/stream is being handled right... I could almost see this thing correcting toward an early Chicago curl as a deep low that then rots and fills over two days spitting lows that run out south of a failed warm frontal cool sector that's "might" be corrected toward greater arming surface pressure over Ontario... That could satisfy the mid latitude R-wave argument that way, too -

Most in here could use that life style change. I nice three mile run, weight lifting caboosed by a 20 minute fast paced, inclined walk on a treadmill at a gym. Anything that gets one's heart rate up to 120+ bpm (relative to age) and is sustained for 30 minutes, releases endorphins. These are precisely the same types of endogenous opioid neuropeptides ... ( haha but true) that gets released in small amounts by a big bomb on a D7 Euro chart - seriously...That outre sort of 'good mood' one feels for an hour after seeing that storm in the cinema of the model run? That's the naturally occurring opiods at work. The only problem is, it is utterly unsustainable because that becomes a dependency on a source that does not provide that 'drug' often enough. It's unhealthy ... These "JOY" hormones are naturally occurring, and help one feel well-adjusted and more able to handle times of stress, lowering anxiety, improving overall mood and well-being. Those that engage in regular physical activities are getting that the right way. This parlays 'synergistically' to an overall improvement in health and vitality. And the incredible bonus? Those improvements mean others around them are naturally more tolerant of their bullshit yayyy, because they are shoveling less of it - and the tenors of this and social media et al improves markedly. Ha... but, one can modulate this stuff more dependably without relying on the complete vagaries of the winds in the model runs.

Euro shifted the total 00z solution E by some 300 miles ... Jesus... lost on y'all also, the incredible 'subsume phase' synoptic evolution and at this range... Heh, it's lecturing a empty room at this point I guess

The apoplexy in here is delicious ... The storm next week ...fwiw and whomever is lucid enough to read this, really isn't part of the same pattern advertisement slated for more that last week of the month into the first week or two of March. This one wasn't ever really supposed to be - although, I will admit that the underlying 'canvas' has a relaxing look already, so it may be a transition type of thing. There's that.. but also, adding to uncertainty is the double-wave total structure of that evolution. There's some interference going on there ... If the space between them opens up a bit more, than we get more cold draining in behind the lead and sets table with more BL inhibition and forcing toward the coast eventually evolves. Or, it needs to dampen out more, and let the high in Canada get us to the same BL conditioning that way. This 12z run decides to play it both directions...running up the earlier wave too close in time with the following, such that BL is scoured out and the follow-up system then has less forcing and ends up west in total. If all that were not enough... discussing scenarios over a D6/7 event is a bit of a pop-cycle headache anyway. But that's why hands are thrown - because of the utter certainty at D6/7, right? haha

I don't know... it's not an overwhelming signal, either. Wiz' or other idea detractors should stick with that imho. But the NAO is trying to slip downward, as is the EPO ...in the American agencies. I'm not sure about the EPS, but other's have posted material that suggest so. It is possible that the AO is is merely being 'pulled' down in index value because these subordinate field regions that over lap its domain happen to modulate down. But it doesn't matter if the AO is perfect -3 anyway. The fact that it is shaving a lot of SD while the EPO/NAO arc may be neutral-neggie by week 2, ...that is still a better probability domain for winter enthusiasts in mid February model outlooks.

Not sure I follow you here... what's 'too easy' - And no, not necessarily - forgive me if I'm wrong, but it "sounds" as though you are failing to allow 'emergence' in the modeling. And by that, I don't mean the fractal variety; I mean, the physics of the system now, processed through equations of motions, and thermodynamics over time... emerge those states of indexes out in time. That's a seamless process - it may seem like it has temporal boundaries at times, but actually...it's a fluid. So you are not going to necessarily see shit on D 2'd rmf up diamonds on D 8's ... It may take until D 5, 6 or 7 for the turds to start gemming -

I try ... actually I'm pretty good at changing on dime these days. I wasn't like that when I was kid...oh, through my 20s. I needed winter to inspire fear, and summer heat to bend rail-road tracks ... tors and canes and earthquakes, dogs and cats living together...mass hysteria. As I turned middle age, I'm really into curiosity more than anything else, and can find that in lesser drams just as well. If we are getting igloo'ed into our homes by some historic thing in early February, I'd actually be amazed if we put up a 80 F ten days later over mud, because that is interesting on whole to me. It's definitely a much healthier and ...'sciency' perspective, don't you think? I also admit to having at least some intro-seasonal preference to some degree, sure. I'm going to sit here and claim that no winter is fine - that's boring. Boring is hard to get over in any dimension. Simply put, if this thing fails and we end up March 2012'vy yet warmer, I'd have forgotten about it inside of a short days. That's all. From now through about March 21 I'm pretty much in my hypocrisy period of the year.

All ensemble EOF methods from multiple guidance agencies depicting a 4 to 5 SD dump of the AO... that's a A B, ...season ending blocking has some precedence in climatology. It doesn't have to be major, either...just timed well with other factors. Then together can create a kind of 'synergistic' feed-back ..i.e., constructive interference, and then that climate signal expresses more if so. Think, two small 2-order waves super-impose and the end wave is 5 ...not just 4. Something like that as a metaphor C, the pattern persisted +AO and the typical mortality on pattern is 45 ... maybe 60 days, and we near the 60 day...so, there is some typology that lends to the notion that the AO/PV really is/are slated to deconstruct a bit. Typically when that happens, you also get a blocking node response ...because when the seam takes place, there is a transient latent heat surplus toward the Farrel Cell. You basically have three factors there that are super-imposing over the next three weeks. It doesn't mean cryo-apocalypse either... Just that instead of sloping the interference tendencies toward failure, we have a chance to pass through a season ending success bias. Which is far in a way an improvement over the last 60 days, don't you think? Or, we can just knee jerk doubt and sans objectivity because we either hate winter and just want tropopause fisting CBs, or... are too disillusion-addled inconsolable pieces of shit. Kidding a little there of course..

yeah I know - credit where ever ...etc etc. My thing is that we've seen 'signs' all season, and exactly 0 have really panned out since early December - and some of them have been truly solid and convincing, too - This one I feel has the uniqueness about it as I described that "perhaps" lends more credence than it's duck-hunt predecessors - I just didn't bother to mention it until there was more backing it... blah blah. The other thing is that we've been pushing off "better patterns" since early January... and the early month calls "sounded" like the same shit to me. Again, I needed more to back this -

Yup...definitive and coherent overnight trend toward ( ...not away for a change ..) the expectation of lapsing +AO in lieu of (eventually) more meridional flow structures across the whole hemisphere, from all guidance sources, roughly a week + ...hint, I don't think we have to wait until March. I began advertising this my self four days ago, so yes repetition but the re-iteration is necessary. This isn't just a pattern change ( imho ). It is one landing on top of that tendency in climatology for blocking in early to mid spring, and the two together is constructive interference. The reason for the latter is also dually supported in its own rite for being at the end of a progressive bias/longitude flow type - those zonal gradient rich patterns tend to yield to a counter-balanced curvature bias to some varying degree that may last a week or ten days; so that conceptually lends credence. So, we have some empirical and indirect assumptive reasoning to support a regime change ( whole-scale ) as Scott surmised. As to the dailies, ..there appears to be a two wave-space format being handled by the guidance, each model relative to their own bias tendencies. The 192 ( D8 ) GFS has a large gap between the pallid (yet gaining strength/trend in guidance) lead wave along the eastern seaboard, the main player back doing a Denver job..The Euro has the lead wave stronger ( a bias tendency it has in that time range), but also has the Rockies way east.. prepping a stem-wound proper Nor'easter; it's pattern synoptic evolution et al may be over amped. So, it seems the GFS is too stretched, and the Euro is too strong: sound familiar? Meanwhile, we have to manage that uncertainty while these pattern augmentations discussed above are concurrently taking place and certainly muddling things more. It's not ridiculous to envision an event next week ..and the lead could become dominant and swap out, too - there's that. It's possible that the two bodily come east and act like one protracted event, a.k.a. Dec earlier this season. It is important to view/anticipated next week uniquely That is a pattern flavor we have not tasted this season *if* *if * *if* the vector of this pattern change verifies! if so ...I'm thinking the pattern change starts this weekend with that deep south height recession... The AO may still be rather perchy at that time, but running down hill. If the south recedes, that lowers the total gradient from that direction, and things start slowing down sooner than we think, which may be why the models are fiddling with next week as more of non-sheared real player in the east. That Euro run ( I'll admit ) was a sight for eyes that have not seen candy it too long. heh.

Jesus… Where the hell have you guys been the last 10 or 20 years This climate can hand out 12 inch lollies like candies from a Pezz dispenser… This isn’t the 1980s. You can get 3, 12” storms and a tweener 6 spot easily across 35 days and still see bare ground in between each one because of melt off It’s all Stockholm syndrome loss of objectivity in here nothing else

Day 10 Euro went out of its way to make my point ... You can see the ambient velocities have slackened as the +AO height depths in the N elevate with the easing off of that particular index, which means ... the integrated gradient everywhere also reduces... The only problem is, the heights remain elevated in the S. No bueno on that look. Seems more and more like this winter is the first one where CC has more coherently f'ed up winter; and the vitriol soon to follow as to what caused this winter to behave the way it did, I can assure....CC will be the last reason entered -

Thanks for the sidled compliment but ... meh, a properly edited 'stream of consciousness' becomes stilted ( typically ), and besides ...for this venue, the polishing given are plenty sufficient, because a more refined effort and or attention to detail would go unheralded. No thanks on the time waste -

Might actually help those who've developed a kind of ...'codependency' on whether they get to experience the gestation spectrum of weather events in the model cinema, all the way to go time, who turn into smoldering trolls if that process is polluted in anyway ( such as ...oh, reality ) eh hm, to rephrase your missive as: "still looking toward the end of the month for a possible improved pattern that could plausibly offer an event(s). Long ways to go though." The overnight operational model runs were bad, period. For several cycles immediately prior, they seemed to be just on the temporal boundary in the extended where they might be detecting a paradigm shift in the general circulation - necessary to set the table. In a sense, we're trying to set the dining hall, so that we can set then set the table. The tele's has some hints of support. And, then there were some seasonality arguments adding conceptually ... But these 00z guidance regressed and lost that homage - it could be par for the course in a season that has shown exceptionally bad late mid and extended range scoring ( relative ). Maybe that is all this is, but we are back to the previous look by increasing the isohypses ( geopotential lines ) count between the lower latitudes and mid/upper latitudes over our side of the hemisphere ( probably everywhere for that matter..). In short, sped back up... Yeah I don't know this for certain and it will surely get cackling rubes making fun, but it seems the +AO relaxes, but the HC expansion issues are still in play, so yeah..we get some relaxation but the flow still ends up f'ed up. I start to wonder if we're just gonna have to deal with this as part of CC more and more in the future seasons; and I don't mean to ignite a ...shall we say, 'spirited debate' - it's a one sentence reality check that I believe is more real than apprehension chooses to accept. Either way whatever this winter does, July is still coming. That means, everything gets destroyed of lieu of the new season; more importantly, there has to be a progression of events leading to that deconstruction, and common wisdom goes ... this crazy velocity saturation, which at more times than not has become a kind of base-line destructive interference, is going to have to break-down. My contention ...beyond when, is what - usually when fast flows break down there is a tendency to reverse and go blocking ... I see that as plausibility as we aged this month and flip the script into March climo. If the AO tendency does neutralize on time of that climo it would probably be in March. There have been big Marches in the past. Though those years probably bore no resemblance to this one in terms of flow characteristics ( whereby the global indices only be numerical, 'hide' those tenors and are thus used wrongly as guides ...), there is still some value in the notion that it can snow prodigiously - it's just gets more and more difficult for the downtrodden to be objective. As an afterthought ... it seems we're having trouble more in the middling -scaled cyclonic organization in this stream-bi-passing quasi sheared high velocity atmosphere, but are getting more 'hyper-bombs' ... just a matter of whether they're in NF or UK ...or gosh forbid along the EC. It's takes more precision to time phasing in fast flow, so by definition ... rarer. But when it clicks, look out!

No ... the pattern's been rapaciously immoral for holding out on winter enthusiasts so long... hahaha... yeah typo ftl

Nah ... singular events can relate, but they don't drive pattern changes... Typically that interpretation has that bass-ackwards - the pattern begins to change, and THAT triggers the 'restoration event' That's also the basis behind the H. Archembault statistical science, too. Big events happen at inflection points in large mass-field paradigm shifts. Not always, but tend to... So, a 920 mb low near Iceland probably doesn't hurt to 'mix things out' a bit .. but the persistent +AO cannot last forever, and we are definitely nearing the typical age of pattern mortality - they usually don't last more than 45 ...may 60 days, before some new paradigm sets in. The happenstance of the Icelandic low is iffy-related at best.. Sometimes the new look bears vestige/echo of old, but will still be observably different in a few ways. Other times, the whole scale appeal is more coherently changed. What makes this [ possible ] pattern seam interesting ( for me ) is that it is happening on top of the typical season ending blocking climo. The two together is a kind of constructive interference. The AO there is (firstly) subject to change that far out in time. Particularly per my own experience, when it camel-humps in-between, too - that's not lending confidence to the farther extended framework when mean has to handle complex modulation in the foreground. ... But, it may be more important that there is a concerted agreement among the members to shift the index mode from +5 or even +6 standard deviations, all the way down to a stones through of neutral ( 0 ) just in general. That is tremendous absolute value correction - and if/when in tandem with a better performing NP-/EPO and PNA rolling up underneath, there's a lot of room for more active pattern guesswork and plausible late season cold deliveries at that. But lets get the super position in time of the +AO correction with it's concomitant relaxation integrated flow together with the early March climo thing, first... It doesn't have to wait that long, either. In fact, the GGEM and Euro were already deflating the flow by D8 or 9 off their 0z depictions.

Dennis ?

Suggestion in the deep field that the hemisphere's getting ready for spring slosh back and that will likely mean substantive blocking ... probably/more likely in the NAO or overlap regions of the adjacent AO ..along with some flow relaxation and more increase r-wave numbers yielding a pretty definitively different circulation bias comparing the predominately longitude/speed shear we've seen everywhere. Leaning toward March ..mainly the first the first half, as being a bootleg savior for seasonal totals per an active pattern that is more meridianal in structure which connotes cyclogen regions activate. I also wouldn't be suprised if the east Pac finally juts a ridge node into western Canada, too. These are not unprecedented season ending regimes after fast flows, and in fact...fast flows tend to decompose into blocking intervals when they break down anyway, but we'll be superimposing the seasonal temporality on top of that so the two may constructively interfere. It's a three week ...maybe four squeezed in of vulnerability when the sun actually eases the gradient, while still having enough cold in the hemispheric bank -

To offer salvation from 'storm denyist'

Yup...bingo! The problem is that these systems have multiple time-constraints in their moving parts? It's complex, but ...some things that are dependent, cannot be seen now..but may need to wait a 100 years - or some unknown time where is required before effects/affects can be measured. So we in our brazen science 'think' we truly understand a system enough, and then we go in with our ingenuity and do x-y-z and sure a-b behave ... but "c" runs amok with unanticipated consequences. To mention, chaos and entropy in changing or forcibly adapting systems.. I'm just sort of expanding on your (bold) statement above - word!

And unlike some predecessor systems where the Euro was curling Lakes routed, D5+ ranged systems, ...this one doesn't have the fleeting hope that fast-flow stretching might correct the track more E. It appears the whole-scale flow has less meridian expansive character through that evolution/synopsis ( D 4.5 - 6 or so ..), and it's wayward proximity being closer to the the higher latitudes takes it out of the higher velocity correction region of the flow. It's like 'tipping' into the SPV region of Canada early more so for leaning that way along the way or something. The D10 double unphased wave structure in/around the EC longitudes in that run would be more phased and a bigger deal imo if the west and Canadian circulation construct is true, tho. The flow is relaxed/lowered HC structure in the deep S; the ridge in the west if axial along N/S Dakota, and those two circumstances usually parlays toward a slow down and better stream mechanical interaction. But oh yeah...D10

Yeah..I too am not really sure on the Australian fires. I've yet to see a truly well-constructive theoretical framework/paper that is fully refereed that explores the total spectrum of causality. Embedded in said spectrum "could be" human, ...but I'm wondering if more so for direct route, rather that 'indirectly' with CC stuff. Example, if/in decades of preventative measures coming back to bite them in the ass. The West learned it's lessons right here at home in North America over the decades, too. Fires are part of the natural order - in fact, most post-fire biomes tend come back with particularly improved vibrance and fertility .. Humanity has a habit of trying to prevent that longer termed, relatively normal ecological restorative vitality engine from running. Then, a lightning strike happens and all that volatile carbon storage gets the heat needed in the triangle of 'heat', 'fuel', and 'oxygen' and away it goes - and it creates an inflation because the bigger that gets out of control, the uncontrolled aspect grows logarithmic - So I think the U.S. does control burns and so forth. I don't know ... did Australia's burn-stricken regions suppress normal burn rates and set that table unwittingly? Maybe.. a formal paper would be nice.

I was half kidding with Will a couple weeks back when I surmised that a bad winter at the hands of a +AO indignity has an upshot in that the Arctic really could use this ice-rebuild season - to put it n"ice"ly... I'm wondering if we are getting any positive returns on this, or if all we are mustering from this journey is static ... My hunch is the latter, but who knows. The problem at the sort of 'intuitive' level is that 'warmest January ever' and point empirical observations like 64.9 F in a region of Antarctica that has never observed that - granted in only 30 years ...which is a dodging hiding post for denial and so forth ... etc etc.. Plus, NASA's reasonably high resolution color-coded salmon fest that only has where? Alaska as the offset to "normalize" the Global perspective... heh, I would not be shocked if we are not really gaining much ice back despite that raging PV

The statement has value because nature always is a process seeking balance - nothing else. Human 'conceit' seems to have the restoring as somehow taking place protecting us over all else ... ? Good luck - No, the balancing will happen where ever the gradient that is unbalance is given space and time to motivate - if aquatic and land-based biomes are in the way, there's no morality there - that's a human conception. If we get what that means in super Universal objectivity? That means your ass!!

Therein, is the problem: what goes into that verb ( bold ) right there - What do you think 'find' will mean? Look around you everywhere and all facets, at all scales and dimensions in nature, nature restores ( balance) violently ( breakdown of existing paradigms). Perception is beguiling... If it happens at a slow rate, that is not benign -necessarily. To see things otherwise smacks of non-sophistication and shockingly simplistic assumption about what it will take to restore any system that is being usurped. As repeating evidence in nature shows, usually the arrival of the new, balanced result has wiped out the pre-existing paradigm(s) in favor of the new matrix. You "like to think nature finds a balance"? I applaud ... because absolutely: everything in nature, including the sentient capability to even perceive nature, happens because of the perpetual restoration of forces at all scales. But that restoring process has big big big component of entropy, when restoring forces are unintended - and that loss of order and increase in chaos when big forces are in play, is like stampede of elephants through a daisy farm -