Typhoon Tip

It was brief. Brevity was between that statement, and "anyway" which in literary mechanics, rejoins the previous discussion. Which was a brief paragraph... The lucidity in here leaves much to be desired at times... oy If y'all don't like long posts, don't read 'em. I know...an unbearably novel idea there, huh. And anyone that claims it's "too much to scroll" anything really needs to walk down the center lane of I-95 between Burlington Mass and Waltham at 5:15 on a Tuesday -

Hey ..I don't actually have access to 06z Euro? Is that as easy as googling? I guess I'll give it a try but I loathe googling these days, for two reasons: The world is only motivated for money; greed in doing so .. These two make the Internet almost useless now. You have to actually be given, cut and paste links from text streams by others who have demonstrated patience in dealing with said greed stuck quagmire of life-thefting time waste. I mean, we have quad process core, quantum computers that hour-glass trying to sift through ad space and petty dime making schemes. wow - Anyway, I rant...do you have that link ( haha)

Yup .. it's a race! I mentioned this yesterday ... that system this weekend is still being "squeezed" so to speak in a fast hemisphere... What it really boils down to is large-scale -vs- short wave length scaled destructive interference. The fast flow robs mechanical wind strength from the S/W's.. It's almost like 'geo-physical' taxes are too high, and there's only so much money left to throw the parties. Seriously though, the models seem to take the path of least resistance at this range. One thing about the GFS, I really don't think that model is the best choice for these "swfe" set ups... It's dubious, native handling of the BL thermodynamics plays a critical roll in whether it is correctly assessing that, which takes a specific, targeted ability to be assessed properly. It is after the weekend ordeal that the ridge begins to decay/ lose it's anchoring in a more visceral way... What's interesting, though that is true in all guidance... the models are not really "filling the void" with a new look yet. As of last check, the GEFs tellies still like the +PNA mode shift so maybe it's just a matter of time.

I don't think a warm 2nd half of the month ...anywhere close to the caliber of those departures in either empirical or sensible, are in the offings... no. Agreed. I've opined in recent days, but the 00z runs, ...across the board, are really brilliantly in coherent agreement, that the HC is going to pass through a 'deflation' of sorts. Looking at that 7.5 thru D10 of any model type one chooses, the heights along the 35th parallel ( and beneath ) shed some 4 to 6 DM everywhere. This immediately, though perhaps not as readily observable to the lay-person, connotes a relaxation in the velocties everywhere, as the total integral space between boreal hemispheric heights gradate less against the southern girdle. That's A ... and it pertains more so for cyclone morphology and behavior as we turn the page into a new hemispheric look. B, is that the R-wave rollouts, that super-impose their ridging over the top of the previous HC, will no longer get that "synergistic" feed-back/hyper constructive wave interference(s) ... This recent variation on that was truly extraordinary - quite likely an event whose seriousness and specter was "hidden" by the fact that it happened in January. Such that a couple of 70 degree days weren't more than forgetting head-scratching curiosities for most in society, regardless of ilk, trade and creed. But if that sucker had happened in f'um July ? ..separate discussion ..but it may not be able to. For one, in July you don't have orderly R-wave rollouts so.. that kind of jams up the super-position necessity in that ...etc...etc.. Anyway, with that loss of 'B', and the other signals which are featuring a very powerful MJO phase punching through 7 --> 8 and quite likely into 1 and 2 but we'll see..those phase states tend to presage a -AO... 'Correction vectoring' wouldn't be pointed up I don't think -

You and I share in this trait ... the ability to turn the page and get going with new paradigms, on a dime - for me, it can be moments.. I've noticed this in the past. I used to not be that way; in my youth, I started loathing the sun, its self, in late September. If we had snow by Thanks Giggedy that was miracle. Very brief digression: That's what's fascinating about CC in this recent two decade -worth of it ... It seems to have/be parlaying into cocaine tastes in October.. like, shockingly often compared to the previous billion years of climo. Not in the 1980s, man. Never. I mean, it seemed to rarely snow in that decade anyway, ha.. But hyperbole aside, these early snow ( forget accumulation, even the privilege of being seen in the air!) and the increasing frequency, these are counter-intuitively coincident with the climate curve. Anyway, in my youth, when that was not the case, thick autumn was my most dreaded time of the year... Circa Sept 21 through November 27 ..because it was just unrelentingly boring. I didn't care about leaf foliage. Hot totties were not going to be legal for another 5 years, and I wasn't good enough at sports to get laid in High School. The weather channel offered my only solace, which I competed for TV time in a house-hold with 7 other siblings and a network news happy relic of Gronkite era, dad, who would park, fingers tucked into the belt of his pants after work, for 2 hours every day. I was that prototypical target with no clue in social circles... Need any more paint on this canvas? And of course as cosmic timing would have it, the climate of the 1980s was my fledgling weather nerd coming of age. The cruel 1980s. See, y'all Millennials have been handed out stimulus and conveniences for life and feeling good, early snows and/or weather bombs in general ( if weather is your thing) like Pez candies ... Kinda like the same generation now is entitled to the Patriots making the playoffs - if not the superbowl. There are kids born, raised, and now sophomores in college, ..the whole way passing into sentience, that must think Patriots NFL dominance is like E=MC2 ... Part of the natural order of the fundamental physics governing reality or something... Wrong. It's extraordinary just exactly how the climate has changed, in an era of conveniences ... to situate snow, cold and bomb cyclones with the same delivery of convenience. To completely ...seemingly unrelated events of nature, coming to an constructive interference like that. That's ..incredible. But what is a matter for a different genre, that convenience appears unhealthy in a lot of ways. And the weather as it comes on portable tech, in these "blue magic" psychotropic packets every 6 hours to offer fresh jolts of e-zombie rushes, and if the richness of that big storm and drama is violated in any way, that sets them off. Yeah, another form in what Luis C. K. once mused, ..prior to the over-zealous Me-Too bullshit sacking his career too: "Every thing is awesome and nobody is happy." I covet god's abuses, for having arranged for my birth when it happened, thus, my growth in pig-shit karma. It made me iron-hulled as an adult. And, in addition to being more impervious to inconveniences, it's allowed me to see the humor in watching said Mellennails expressions when truth punches a hole in the balloon of their delusions of reality grandeur. In fact, anywhere in society where people are stunned in a state of, "Whaaaaa - " as if some sacrosanct violation needs to be sent thru litigation because the sugar's not right in their drive-thru Dunkin Donuts stop. Believe me, these people react and it is either funny .. or embarrassing to watch. Anyway, as an adult I've just sort of lost any preconceptions/expectation, and I do think it has to do with years of being jaded and punished with unrelenting losses in this weather passion - abuses that we do to our selves, frankly. If a pattern changes warm in January or February... particularly true in March ... takes me an hour tops to sans the nostalgia for that cold regime, in lieu of wanting to see how warm it gets.

Mercurial behavior is typical in neurosis

Yup ... block out the sun in time for summer

I swear ... no model can seemingly deliberately take such a golden pattern, replete with so many signal after signal, and find the least exciting solution imaginable relative to each one of those signals, ... with the stunning zeal and shimmering panache as the f'n GFS. My god. Four charts in I knew what it was selling so I just rolled the mouse wheel like my eyes right to the end of that banality. Sometimes I wonder, do the NCEP modelers actually put algorithms in the model to mute things from happening - like...on purpose. "Hey Frank - did you hit American forum for the -...right. Thought so. Okay, Dave. Hit it! I just spoke to Frank; it's time to head-f social media and fire of the other model version"

Heh, if that Thursday deal comes in more amped than this NAM solution it may just run right up the St L Seaway and no one wins... man. Looks like this run's headin' for a D.e.m. special though -

You guys want the JMA's 12z solution on both ... for SNE that is.. It's cold enough and potent enough on the first (Thurs) for 1-3 or even a spot 4/5", then, the weekend gig looks like a cold commital/M-b

yeah ...we gotta be careful with the causality circuitry and the MJO... Since it's a tropical forcing mechanism it's got a time requirement along with some indirection... It can be muted by an unfavorable, large scale destructive hemisphere, as much as it can be harmonious and then it really feeds-back and makes the correlation shimmer with obviousness. Either scenario effects a delay/time-lag requirement for a given phase, longer or never -vs- faster do to readiness. In this case, it seems the MJO is moving into the western hemisphere, at the same time the N-.Pac is trying to reorient into a circulation medium for constructive. We'll see if it holds.. But initially, the two aren't really in phase, so I'm inclined to think the phase 6 may not transmit much signal just yet. More so later next week. Actually, Phase 6 is a warm signal - duh... but still... the other conceptual shit's valid.

Didn't see your brilliant insights Yeah, I was on-board with that this morning too. As for me, I'm not saying that's happening... per say - though I'm hoping that's not bargaining. Ha. But just trending. Also, this wouldn't be the first time something like this has happened. Over the years ... how many times have we seen two systems on the charts and the first ends up dominant, or vice versa. Not sure if this is precisely one of those overall circumstances where that either can, or will take place.. .but, if Thursday's digs and bombs exiting NE coast, but still too fast and we miss out..., it runs up and clocks Hazey in the lower Maritimes, then, the weekend one ends up sore-butting here because of what you say? I wonder - would that be worth the Schadenfreude to see happen...

For the bundamentalists alone...that D12/13 Euro I bet would be interesting...

The Thursday system is trending in the guidance. The weekend one isn't. It's weakening... Since neither are relayed on board the "instinct" to count chickens in either case has been clucking, too. Either system could still become dominant in a flat flow high velocity canvas... Both could end up nothing. Just sayn' I agree that the extended looks better ... as far as extendes can. The HC is finally looking more seasonal, and with the R-wave repositioning going on... the relaxation of both is opening a potential era where meridian flow structures can dig unimpeded more readily. We see that feed-back right away in how we end up with that wondering west Atlantic weirdness out there - but though it is silly to argue any solution for D9/10... I do think that result on this Euro run is really more a reflection of changes rather than a real system. Though it wouldn't shock if over the next 2 to 3 days, we 'fill that in' so to speak.

I just sense a tendency to always be less than mid range drama, when nearer ranges in general bring said events into the nearer term. Interesting that the Thursday system, in both the GGEM and Euro, bomb-clocks the lower Maritimes...while the weekend one looks as though it's backing off.. Not sure what that means for us, but both the Euro and GGEM are more potent with Thur as it moves through New England - so ironically sort of opposite that tendency. These runs are a solid moderate snow and mix impactors for CNE at this point. Wouldn't take much adjustment to get some of that down to the Pike either... So far, the Euro's over amped is winning this debate on the Thurs thing.

Interesting ... It's really correcting at the r-wave scale in this GFS's run.. The flow is less pulled taut/stretched by ... maybe 5 longitude, so that "gives this more time" in a sense ..among other attributes and behaviors.

You guys are analyzing for the tastier looking run per post content ... like interpretive for why its better this and better that. I'm seeing these as model discontinuities - hopefully, that's baked into this, otherwise, heh - sometimes I wonder

Yeah...yup... that's my take, that this is probably reluctantly conceding that direction in all guidance ... stubbornly having to admit it and won't fully until it is 36 hours out LOL But I have other thoughts too... Like, stepping back ( oh god - here he goes... ) the flow is fast ( duh ) but, it's west to east and zonal in nature for the next five days. After which, that and then is where and when the flow starts to "buckle" ... That circumstance of change is very important for two principles in determinism ( which I'm not mansplaining here - you know this ...just sayn'): The first is, the Thursday wave that "should" bring a swipe of fast moving light/moderate snow and mix on the southern edge across CNE, won't even come over the denser sounding domain over western N/A until 12z initializations, tomorrow. It prooobly won't mean a whole helluva lot? But, it only takes subtle potency wrt that mechanical wave space where subtle quotients could mean for a better burst of wintry weather with that..or a south, or a north track...etc. The second is, that's an intrinsic pattern change. And it is one whose scaffolding is pretty heavily advertise to be heading into a PNA paradigm shift that supports more western ridging. Pattern changes as we know are not usually the best time spans for model verification scores ..to put it nicely. But, in this case, the HC and SE ridging/R-wave fiasco that's pretty much dictated our sadness over the last several weeks, is breaking down sort of in tandem with that weekend gigs arrival. We really need the SE not to dawdle in doing so...because, if that ends up being prematurely eroded and/or worse yet, red-herring eroded, all bets are off on how the forcing offsets that wave's interactivity with the surrounding medium east of ~ 100 W. So, there is uncertainty fruit free for picking in the tree of determinism for this week in my estimation. But to your original point... if none of that matters heading into the weekend, only where we are as of right now in the runs? Yeah,...that's not getting out of Miller B result alive. Not chance...too much BL forcing and cold in the lower troposphere, with a 120 kt v-max wind core tunneling S of LI ? f-off man... that's going to bomb.. You'd iron out details but that facet is happening sorry. Probably for Nick - ha There after, there is still now in the GEFs/oper. GFS and Euro cluster, a coherent appeal of HC deflation - being funny...but with heights more natively receding SE of Hawaii around the girdle of S-tropics, together with Phase 7-8-1-2 MJO ..that's still a constructive wave interference that may also lead a -AO response given time and doing so with less compression in the flow over all, allows for less "de"structive individual S/W mechanics.

The thing is that things got unworldly jet max blasting by West is just under our latitude over 120 kn in mid levels… Frontogenics would be off the charts and probably be getting mesoscale QPF clusters that would actually make those totals at local baands. The GFSQPF chart is probably not going to pick any of that up. Thus it’s probably right for the wrong reason at a few points Obviously that’s predicate on the assumption that run’s right otherwise but we don’t even know that

Hey man ... I've said before, I'll say it again... First it gets warm, then it get cold: boom

After a couple days around 70 down this way... ? hope

Half those numbers yup... Still 12 to 16" happening in - probably 8 to 10 hrs ... But Like I was I saying to ... Steve I think it was, I don't think the QPF charts are altogether useful... For more than the usual D6/7 lead, but because that structure/evolution synoptically supports deplorably pornographic for meso potential. Ironically ... a few of those numbers could get 2/3 to 3/4 realized by accident -

Has that 7" in an hr band somewhere look to it, doesn't it.. Sorry, with that incredible power that's probably ceiling Terran physics in having a solid 3 deg of latitude thick tube of wind over 120 kts going W- E from Pit to SE of CC like that... someone is getting strobe lightning too - kidding of course... but with that level of excessive wind solution, the frontogenics probably maxed absolutely there, with trop. folding UVM cores... and necessrily, those QPF charts may as well be douche because they're not going to pick up 0 mi vis, snow rating over 7/hr. And what's amazing...this is a weaker solution by 5 to 10 kts over 12z

Regardless... that suckers over 120 kts at 500 mb in the jet core, and it's not just a flag or two - the whole exit to entrance tube is wind tunneling...

18z 's begun the slow process of abrading next weekend's S/W mechanics by way of velocity saturation now too... christ still has the wave space but details are exposing some theft there