Typhoon Tip

Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales. There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that. In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would. One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean: I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"? But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide. Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster. It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves). This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence.

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't. Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad. When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow? That is like ..physically impossible. This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using? Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position. That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends... However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe. But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front. And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled) I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ?

Don't feel so bad ... there are two distinct chances for "responsible lust for destruction" on the 00z Euro beyond this joke, each far more interesting than this one ever should have been allowed to be...

Nope ...

oh you laugh ...but it's just a matter of time before we get a transgender hurricane ...

Laura's eye looks like it's just taken on the stadium structure -

The outflow from this thing has truly taken on awesome geometry - particularly as it fans mare's fractals over the entire expanse of the eastern Gulf -...wow...that's probably helping to intensify this because that kind of superb radial structure means huge mass necessarily needs to be conserved and that mass is coming into the bottom of Laura's chimney ...that's how that works... which is all synonymous with lower sfc pressure.

Managed 77 F at most home stations sites on Wunder around N Middlesex CO/Rt poop - fwiw ... Feels nice out... more of a perfect 10 day vibe than an autumn one. Can't rush these things folks - you'll get your winter... patience - haha

It's funny ...I was just coming in here to comment an opinion that I thought this was a chance to be a particularly dangerous event - but because like Andrew...it may actually be intensifying as it is coming in... Camille did that too back in 60-whatever... Those storms that quasi RI right at that wrong time for the coast - eesh. Not to diminish the threat or significance for those in harm's way, but ... it's probably a good thing this misses Houston/Galveston Bay and ends up further up the coast toward Port Arthur where ( uh...I think..) there's less population and infrastructure. Andrew ( 1992) exploded within 75 miles as it was passing over the straights between the Bahama archipelago and Florida ... drilling out some 45 mb of central pressure depth over night. I think it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 ...but then was reanalyzed in future papers it was ultimately upgraded to a Cat 5 as it was coming in and scouring neighborhoods in across southern Dade county/ Miami burroughs. You know ..I later read a paper by Theodore Fujita ( think it was him...) that there was evidence of twister clusters embedded into the eyewall... with repeating subsidiary suction spots evidenced by debris layout... I mean, can you imagine that? Like ...your already sitting in 120 sustained wind with repeating tornados coming It's like, where's the sharks! ...although you probably don't know it.. I mean at those kind of kinetics, what's the difference - haha sharks or not

Yeah...the land rise there is shallow... that region can be 20 feet above sea level quite far inland, particularly lining estuaries and river inlets... Those features will also focus surge ( 'funnel effect') and that will raise water levels quite far up water ways. They have the same problem down around eastern VA and up along the Del Marva and probably up into Ches. Bay ... those regions have tidal flats that stink of craw fish turds at low tides in neighborhoods some 7 miles from any beach. For some reason, big surge storms tend to hit Florida or LI with more frequency ... anyway, places like Port Arthur TX ...ho man

Was this written by scientist ? "...and futuristic air and ocean drones ..." sounds like something my 12-year nephew would say - LOL

While the longer term pattern still argues for summer at least being on life-support ... there's no question this is like the 'shot across the bow' air mass Will and I have talked about in the past. I almost feel though that this is flukey too - I mean that weird deep hole in atmosphere that seemed to spontaneously come into emergence NW of NS up there. I'd been watching that in the models; it really didn't come from very much and it really seemed to be a planetary node - kind of weird. Put it this way, running 90 kt 500 mb westerly cores from Montana to Maine in early mid august through early september is part of the fluke. Interesting... either way... my hypothesis is a cooler autumn relative to the hemispheric signal ( which that means...it may not be cooler relative to the climate numbers, but when compared in situ to the hemisphere) ...and that may be enough for packing pellet CAA unusually early...probably pre halloween sometime in October.

Heh not sure I buy the Euro D5+ ... The GFS, while probably not 'as good' of a model in the long run, does seem to be scoring a bit better than the Euro's consummate attempts to heat wave the OV to New England regions in that D5.5 to 9 range it's been doing all summer. The GFS is obnoxious. I get it. It's annoying how it keeps suppressing the westerlies south and hosing these insane jet velocities so anachronous to summer, which should be more nebular with weaker velocities, etc. That said, we've been verifying unusually well defined R-wave structures and faster jet velocities all summer - so...it's like the GFS is onto this, but just doing it too much? It makes it hard to know how much so. I bet if the GFS was outfitted with the Euro grid density and then had on with its own 4-d yadda yadda it'd actually be a better model than the Euro. Somewhere in between probably, what's new -

Steve is like the heckler in the audience explaining to everyone why tongue-in cheek/sardonic wit isn't funny -

agreed...

Well.. than I hope my next GF's name is 'stratosphere'

Hmm..several observations re that bold text. 1 .. For anyone of this particular pre-occupation and engagement the words "hot" and "girlfriend" being used in the same turn of phrase - is akin to the vin diagram needed to decode one of my synoptic overviews prior to a pattern change ... 2 .. And, that may be bargaining in itself, as though leveling that suggestion at us gives hope those two facets could ever be collocated in time ... ? 2 .. why have a 'hot' girlfriend? ...beyond the carnal desire for one, that is... It's far more likely and healthy, both physically and spiritually... to find a committed woman/man ( depending on how one identifies themself) in the aggregate population... One's that are more homely, vaguely tolerable to look at, and can even laugh... they stay compared to glib individuals that have been enabled by looks and therefore never really learned humility for their journeys to date. That's why those are "ex" and "hot" in the same turn of phrase - that was the problem in the first place. Those types often have oddly working internal appraisal compasses - if at all - pointing more inwards, and thus don't so readily recognize or appreciate true beauty in another individual .. Oh they say they do, if they've learned societal conventions and stop short of allowing their placated existence from turning them into sociopaths.. But, you're likely to fare better odds with a 7/10 lady/dude with her/his head screwed on straight any day over 9.2 with her/his head up some kind of Princess/Prince complexed lagging developmental ass ..any day.

See I thought/was under the false impression the 00z Euro had the boundary N of this... If this is the boundary's mean position 12z ... there is nothing happening and this thread should be evaporated, unceremoniously as though a personal attack on convection enthusiasts to really nail the p.o.s.ness of this pattern home.. LOL

Ladies and gentlemen... this is what we in Psycho-babble refer to as "bargaining" - ...it's a self-soothing tactical alternative in plausibility that is typically created to avoid having to face an inevitable painful reality... Using this as a predictive model, the subject will like experience a 'melt-down' as the next phase along the total acceptance of butt-bang arc to full recovery -

It's also possible ... yeah, that the NAM is over doing it with that. I have actually seen the NAM be too aggressive with BD too - it's just not typically the case. Most often, even the higher resolution runs will end up needing to correct SW ... So, if it is ideal 72 F with pancake feathery CU Golf weather where once stood a mighty enhanced wording...while there is far distant anvil wall on the absolute S/SW horizons during baseball hail at Trenton NJ don't be surprised.

that's more like it! When the universe ages to it's termination and ceases to exist... SPC will still be trying to place warm fronts too far NE into this sort of synoptic set up -

Now watch...just because I mentioned that stuff about the geo-morphology and forcing of near earth surface synoptic weather phenomenon ...limiting warm frontal intrusion ...the 12z NAM will go ahead punch the f'er to Grey Maine... ha

in a bushman's vision ...that's why though. This is anomalous air mass for seasonal change... It's not even a preview ( 'shot across the bow') really ...strikes me as a fluke. I like shot across the bow, breaking back air masses to be anchored in a definitive pattern modulation... This is a weird thing that I think is related to another popsicle headache... Anyway, 18 hours later summer tries to surge back, and homage to the idea that it's still there... And that's a problem ...when you have still active moisture draining off foliage and evaporation of soil moisture content in the midwest and Lakes regions .. mixing with tumbling 17+C 850 mb temperatures ready to surge right back in, this unusualness of the severe set up for this time of year...is sort of indicative of this 18 to 24 hour fluke air mass... Correct one way, snap back - It's really difficult up our way too...because our topography/geographical feed backs offer more forcing that stall or even reverse warm fronts. Basically, because the land falls out in elevation from underneath the troposphere when east of NY/VT/NH. Vectors lifting over the western hills/mountains and general higher elevation, sets up a kind of "invisible" counter-vector that rolls the atmosphere and tacks back W-S at lower levels east of said axis... There's a forcing back SW... at all time below 800 or so mb. This is why BDs seem to get pulled back down the coast...it's more than just the mass discontinuity ...That's the start, but that motion of air then gets a kick-back from that tacked vector and then the boundary over achieves... it's why in late April, a common almost fixture of fronts stalled in the area is that fronts align smartly due E until about Albany, then curvilinearly descend SE and wrap around NE and even go back N over the water E of Cape Cod... It's that rolling motion that retarding. It's also why we "tuck" in the winter and enjoy ice storms while PF in N. VT is 52 F at mid slope.

I have not been altogether impressed by the Euro's handling of tropical systems of the years. That's from the genesis phases of them, to the handling of them after the fact ...until they begin to experience the influence of the westerlies ...then the model's a kind of "johnny-come-lately" and does remarkably well. I think the tropical regions/monsoon trough zones are like a "limit" in the equations - and I wonder what the mathematics over the 4-d variable system is doing at that x-coordinate boundary ...where it's like a geo-physical asymptote .. fading to oblivion more so than a discrete edge. I guess a metaphor is like 'slipping outside the Euro's radar-range.' Anyway, I wonder if their system falters there a little...because its in that amorphous ill-defined boundary that zygote TW/TCs tend to formulate and begin moving W where the 10 N and 10 S ( depending on hemisphere) gets influenced by the underbelly of the HC and the easterly trade winds zones... The Euro is routinely lagged behind other guidance in genesis in these regions, and then... seems to be challenged in intensify systems ..playing catch-up with the other guidance. I'm usual raising a brow at this point if I see the model even carry an inverted 'dent' west around 15N across the Atlantic ...usually at the other end of the scale, it is not uncommon to find the GGEM is negotiating a categorical hurricane if/when the Euro does... Anyway, since Laura is technically still moving with westerly component ... which means it is not yet influenced by the westerlies... I wonder if the Euro's hiccup runs deviating from the consensus is part and parcel of all this...

And Saturday looks really bad to me on the 00z Euro... In fact, the behavior of the pressure pattern and QPF matches climo typology for tornadic events over eastern NY the upper MA and interior SNE ... with a pretty clearly define morning straif of elevated convection along a warm front strongly supported by synoptic detailing, giving way to warm sector intrusion to lower VT/NH ... and along the residual warm frontal axis arcing into upstate NY there are very intense convective nodes exploding in the model resolution of what happens next... Those are super cells folks - no question given the W 70-90 kt 500 mb flow running collocated overtop a sun steamed, fresh theta-e transported low level thermal ridge ( 850s 20 C CT over SE Massachusetts!), and heights tending to fall overtop from west to east across the area between 18z and 00z Sunday... The key is.. warm intrusion and fresh falls of BL rains near 12z clears out and this creates a pal of SB CAPE anomaly in the area...if we go back and look at the daily behavior prior to '89, Monson 2010, even ORH '53 ...and the Mohawk Trail MCS June 10 '87 ...these are all fine examples of what to look for and were remarkably similar with dawn rumble rains that peeled away and sun-soared to mid 80s/72 blue-tinted bath water hillsides ... ensuing jet mechanics nosing in mid day from the west... That's Saturday incarnate - I mean Oklahomans might feel jealous looking at these general synoptic parameters. Devil's in the details with convection though ...so, this is just what I've gleaned off Pivotal - there may be distractions I'm not seeing or are unaware therein but ... it's like Thursday and Friday have their intrigue, but Saturday was painted with unique convergence of parameters constructing a convective appeal on a guidance that is very tough to beat at time ranges < 120 hours. I would change the title to three days of potential and just encapsulate the whole saga -