Typhoon Tip

Lol...haha... when I wrote that was thinking zactly that - ... "Octovember"

Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all... Here's 2012 March, ( https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203): ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9 Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously... Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise.

Faux warmth before any 'torch' though. 52 F and sun with frost at night in rural settings is meh

It's more than that... It's 72 along rt 2 as far E as 495, which is nothing shy of exceptional for March 10 ....WHILE there is a BD front cutting across the areaa. I don't recall ever having see a BD go stationary on March 10 across NE Mass at mid day

How about that D10 on the Euro for warm weather enthusiasts... The model ( like the GGEM...) is/are both playing into their respective tendencies to bias on the side of curved flow structures in that range (likely), blazing full on spring+ ... having negated any cold evolution off the foreground -EPO. This was hinted yesterday and I mentioned it... and the 00z guidance really went double down. Man, several days ago I back peddled on the ides of March as having a shot but it just seems the -EPO will came and go and the pattern may just decay without ever seeing it modulate into even a transient +PNAP which is more typically what happens post a neggie EPO loading in winter. Only ...it's not winter ...hm. I think those GFS cold shots are an artifice of progressive flow causing too much confluence in Canada ...and is thus also playing into its own bias to be stretched in the farther ranges. probably need to pull the Euro back and the GFS and we end up annoying which is what is typical of Asspril

guidance had been toying with the notion for days leading ... my experience in New England over the last 35 years is if that is ever the case, the boundary ends up in Miami with 10 feet of cold mist as punishment for the impertinent muse of wondering if it might stay warm...

Yeesh... Well, we spoke about MOS bustin' too cold in the extended with this look today and tomorrow and well... bingo - 74 on enough back yard stations to argue that balm over thorougfares and parking lots is real and it's 70+ ... Looking at the NAM thermal plumb, it almost looks like we go back to 60 F now in that post cold front mid week, too... It's March, and we shed obscenity for just above normal - okay... Look at the Euro and GGEM's extended from 00z and 12Z ... I get the impression that the -EPO in the foreground is real, but the seasonal change/modulation is fighting it...and that it may settle into a trough west/ridge east at first like normal...but then said modulation just sort of peters out before pan-systemic cold can do much after... Normally, in the winter, a strong -EPO decays into a +PNA ridge... This is not winter though...not really when your nearing equinotical sun angles.. Also, the +PNA could be 'west-based' like the Euro... Basically, the -EPO causes a warm up/ridge in the east, then, ...decays...into a milder version of the same ridge ... It seems the longer operational runs are trying to do that. I've never seen this ... every plausible dimension of means to get colder is just being deconstructed by the modeling.. fascinating...

Yeah and it seems these GFS runs are more responsive to the -EPO than the opposing signal I was mentioning earlier, re the tandem -PNA/+NAO, which is interesting.. The Euro too - It should be noted that the EPO and PNA are negatively correlated, so the -EPO ( I had forgotten this when I made my statement earlier..) has some tele support. It's really the MJO that's out out of sorts with this N-Pac arc. But, you know ...in fairness, I've always believed that the MJO is very circumstantially significant ...as in a destructive or constructive modifier and not a pattern drive - so... upon further thought, I may be willing to change my stance on the mid month time frame, as ( also ) that pattern relaxation is still prevalent. I need to see the EPO hold ground in the next couple of nights. Also, it's hard to nail down a time frame for specific events off just the EPO cold load. That's like a 4 to 6 day stint of favorability, and role the dice on whether the Pac squirts a wave or two underneath... blah blah preaching to the quire, am aware -

Yeah so not sure it's believable...any -EPO I'd like to see some supportive hemispheric cast members. The MJO is out of sequence for that. The AO is demonstratively positive, and it overlaps the WPO and EPO's northern chunk of real-estate ... The MJO and AO have a pretty significant correlation, and the presently modeled +AO aspect is a good fit for the Phase 5 decay as it is - a scenario that is out of phase with a -WPO/-EPO ... That said, the wave spacing is in process of its seasonal change and the gradient is likely slackening ...and some of these tele start to slip correlation - it's awful early to expect that to save though...

It's interesting ...the models have been constructing that look in the general mean for days ... and typically, a -EPO collapses into a +PNAP and the cold is thus enabled to spread east and so forth... We are not getting the latter more typical large scale morphology from the models, though. It's like it's holding back - repetitively doing like you say... dumping west, without then modulating toward even a transient western mid latitude ridge.. But it really hasn't been exceptionally cold out there either. Active storminess ..perhaps.

It may be 2012 by affectation, though - but that's of course subjective. Empirically it probably doesn't ...because 2012 was so obscene that by shear definition of scale and degree of that anomaly it must by convention be construed as exceptionally rare - to put it nicely... But, again... both years bear an 'affectation' of similarity: early snow, followed by unrelenting bad winter, ends in butt-bang above normal March. It doesn't matter so much - to me - what the exact empirical numbers are, in space, time and thermometer, as the 'behavior' is what is paramount. A latter aspect I think folks are evading some ... or maybe are not realizing - I dunno. The behavioral similarity does give a 'subjective appeal' of useful comparison in my mind. Because they are same in that dimension of perspective: early snow and cold, no winter after... bend over March. Not sure how that can be argued without lying -

Know what's personally musing about that ? About a week ago, I mentioned in passing words to the affect of, " ...at this point, I hope that big ridge in the Euro verifies, because I'd love to pile out of work into a 74 F afternoon on that Monday, with the extra hour of daylight" Oddly prophetic, perhaps ... and while 74 is a stretch, I would definitely remind folks that under a well mixed, tall boundary layer, amid a WSW dry-warm continental conveyor, with 700 mb RH < 50%, and 850 mb rudimentary adiabatic starting temp of +10 or +11 ...that's going to bust MOS cool... The GFS version of that MOS is only 60 at FIT, which might actually be atoned for it's progressive look with that flat wave coming out of the southern GL region... The Euro is west of Chi town withat wave-space during Monday afternoon, with the eastern end of the warm boundary not sagging with typical climo - so...has an air of anomaly in that respects and we'll see. But, the GFS is about 6 to 9 hour faster with that S/W and probably pollutes the works. I actually think this is a good test for the GFS ... ( Euro for that matter.., although the onus is on the GFS, because the Euro being inside of D4 ...it's probably closer to reality ). I've thought all along this season that the velocity/speed saturation, tending to stretch the flow ... serviced the GFS and made it's extended ranges look better than the foreign model types - which diametrically maintain the opposing tendency in the other direct ( meridian ). I just wonder if the GFS is going to start ablating warm ups all summer ( snark). Like it has difficulty seeing the longevity of heat, because it'll keep right on stretching the flow when there is less reason to actually do so ...thus, revealing that it was scoring better this last winter by faux skill (so to speak).

the thought had occurred but then ... is it really gonna matter this time ? Might be a better therapy for all who regular this distraction if they didn't get to see the models at all for the next 6 months, too - ha

That extended Euro is ugly on steroids

Bingo! Yeah... and a +AO winter ( predominating ) has meant a lot of gradient saturation between the lower Ferral latitudes and those deep cold heights associated to the former - The lower latitude heights are also expanding across the 30 year analysis prior to this winter; it is being papered - Hadley Cell expansion. It's only on the order of 2.5 deg since the 1950s... which in scalar consideration is a small number. But it's not that simple... throughout a a gravitationally compressed fluid medium - it means it's sensitive to mass changes in that range, and one such way is that it has to expand laterally in latitude, and that increases velocity. That is happening - and I realize I'm preaching to the quire here ...just saying -- while there is a ranging +AO? Good luck... there's a reason for all these land-based velocity records being set by west to east flying commercial airlines and it's likely the combination of the two.. These land-speed records started happening more frequently some ten to fifteen years ago, but the frequency seemed to be up this season.

Yeah... it seems a matter of time before get some kind of public restriction mania going ... one wonders. I mean, it won't be like "martial law" per se, but several states are urging people to telecommute if they can, else ..self quarantine if there is any suspicion at all they may have been in contact - but think about that? Who and how the f would anyone know that! Idiots...so, the next logical steps is mass hysteria of course - too predictable. Meanwhile, we wonder if it's over-publicized ... "catastrophized" to try and generate corporate-media profits. The histrionic fervor that's "trying to elevate" doesn't seem to really necessitate the urgency, not when comparing to the veracious science and data that's being buried beneath the din of fear mongering. Some of the descriptions of those with this illness who are among what is considered 'healthy population,' report 8 hours of fever, followed by a day or so of mild fatigue and they're out - fine. No worse for the wear. Head colds are far f worse. And yeah, you get the flu with advanced underlying morbidity factors, you're at risk either way. This has a 2 percent mortality rate ... 2... and that does not include 'healthy populations' almost all who have died were in the risk minority. Ebola was 90%... 90 .. You could have been Jesse Owens and you'd -a been in deep shit. Not this f thing. no way...not even in the same ballpark. Yet, think back to the media coverage spanning both ... you'd think that was Corona and this was Ebola the way it is being aggrandized -

As a stand-alone source... the American -based teleconnectors are exceptionally warm for mid/late month. I'm now wondering if a 2012 competition is in the works - goodness.. Two schools, ...well, three really: one ... we are already past the first week, so to get a competition, I'm not sure where we stand and if that's even doable over the next three weeks two ... by shear definition of rareness, ...2012 should not be redux/reproducible for many years. 8 may not be long enough... three ... CC ...yup. Bingo.. it's plausible that we can overcome that 2nd point; as in, maybe it's not as rare as we may think. Like it has simply not taken place yet, and we are in a new regime that allows for that kind of absurdity more frequently than we may be aware, simply from lack of verified exposure. The reality is probably somewhere between all three of those philosphies. I realize someone's posted about the EPO that looks neggie but I don't think it's "really" negative. What I'm seeing is such a demonstratively and massively negative PNA that physical R-wave balancing forces the EPO faux negative. It won't be the same beast as that which loads the Canadian shield ... if that's the case. I also advertized yesterday that I thought we still had chances for cut-off blue bomb in an overall above normal pattern. I'm not even sure I still want to back that assertion this day looking at this stuff.

As we get ready to embark upon a new summer season, for those of us who care, there is anticipation for how the temperature departures will tend to layout across North America - and obviously... how that will affect our region. I have taken note over the last ten years, an interesting tendency to offset extreme (high) temperature results in New England due specifically to cloud coverage. There are other geo-physical circumstances that offset - I'm speaking specifically to tendencies for mid and high level "gunk" cloud coverage, which tends to dim solar flux during warm continental transports and/or in-general deeper tropospheric height events. I thought perhaps I was just imagining contaminating warm-sector cloud propensity... Such an easy look-up using the "dubious" resource known as the Internet (sadly it has become... due to human propensity for greed and corruption at least excuse, a dying virtue ...I digress), I have neglected to really try, but an excerpt from this source, https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/03/190325120401.htm "..Even though northern Scandinavia should be strongly affected by global warming, the area has experienced little summer warming over recent decades -- in stark contrast to the hemispheric trend of warming temperatures, which is strongly linked to rising greenhouse gas emissions. According to the study, temperature changes have been accompanied by an increase in cloudiness over northern Scandinavia, which in turn has reduced the impact of warming..." rather nicely suggests I may be noticing something real. I have opined on few occasions, how our region of the globe, per NASA's ongoing 'state of the climate' monthly publications, dating back some 20 years actually ..., have shown that while we have experienced substantive upward temperature trends, they have been muted comparative to other land regions; such as Australia, Eurasian and Asia and Africa, where they may not have the same cloud tendencies. We do... maybe - because that bold excerpt above likens to an 'extreme' variation of what I may be observing locally - if due to a similar dimming/muting. I almost wonder if this summer ends up a 89'er; which would be +2 or +3 on the season, even suggesting episodic big heat, but in reality fails to produce, because of gunk sky contaminated warm ups. 20+C 850 mb warm air intrusions under cirrostrata contamination ... I have seen this frequently. I also wonder if the warming climate's theoretical relationship to increased WV content could be causally related to why some regions of the planet happen to register increasing cloud coverage as this warming has occurred over recent decades - if so, are we actually one such region. I just have seen too many 21 C, 850 mb afternoons hold up at 91 F ...with periodic swaths of cirro-stratum and alto stratus clipping the solar flux. So, this warm up Monday into Wednesday this week ... Firstly, I'm impressed that the models can't bring a BD down here approaching the "stellar warm time of year" known as the Ides of March. Yet, the Euro holds that boundary up around midriff Maine. That said, I was looking at the GGEM and Euro moisture layering and that looks like a candidate mottled warm sector of robbed solar input. 700 mb has >50% RH ... which wouldn't be necessarily the same cause as the deep summer reasoning, no...but, it does remind me of similar...and that having +7C at 850 mb, in a reasonably well mixed WSW flow ..."should" poke another 70 F chance one of those afternoons, but I almost wonder if it stays 64 to 66 because of cloud albedo

Man... the ICON and GGEM are amazingly engineered tools for modeling wrongly - Or - coup brewing ? They just won't give up...The GGEM dynamically flips SE zones to about 4-6" of reasonably high impact advisory look on this run...

And that 1997 is in my top three coveted fav' events of all time. Depending on my mood, that order mixes up between: Feb 1978 (Michigan - different storm); Apr 1997; Dec 1992 ... I remember Harvey Leonard on his 6 pm mid previous week, "...Should this deep feature manage to pass under Long Island..." stressing the risk in having that do so.. He was talking about the ( then ) MRF synoptic evolution of a deepening 500 mb closed surface. So, Saturday morning I get my usual large french vanilla with cream and sugar and Advil and head on up to the Weather Lab to see where we stood; seeing as that was being side-ways mentioned in AFDs and the Euro was suggestive too. I saw, I wanna say, Drag ( I think, Sorry Walt) mentioned the MRF ensemble members were bulging west toward the New England Coast, indicating plausible correction vectoring toward more concern...etc.. So it was smoldering in the met community. Imagine my heart ...as I knock back the Advil into a hang-over in front of a yummy first dram off my coffee, and all of it almost comes out my nose when Harvey's vision of management was outright modeled in full fury leaped of the primitive ( by today's standard) web interface. It was 59 F at the time. It ended up maxing 63 F, that day, two days before cat-paws warned in... After getting my weather johnson all lubed up and ready to go, I left and walked across the campus to Fox Tower for brunch. The sky was hazy blue, and the fair weather CU was even elevated ... as though even the anomalously warm boundary layer was as clueless as the students lavishing in it. I can recall the t-shirt and cargo shorts vibe. It was a common garb of choice along my walk, as frisbies sailed over 20 year-old flawless designs taking advantage of the sun upon blankets festooning the commons out side of the dorm halls. Sculpted out of God's clay, indescribable forms - trying to be civil about it was almost like when I worked radar at Weather Service Corp, and witness the zygote blip of the 1999 May Oklahoma City F5 producing cell; just knowing that someone, somewhere, over that sucker's ensuing 50 miles were utterly oblivious to their destiny. That's always a weird head space .. you just keep it to your self. And that tepidly warm utopia was just the same.

Oh yeah... great example. zactly It may be more of an intuitive feel but think like we're prone to this, this spring. More discretely though... there's a lot a wave mechanics that seems "strand-able" and with that cold lurking... warm all the time, alla 2012 doesn't seem like it's walking through the door. You know, we may get lucky with warmth? ... mm, and if we do ..few will really understand that's all that happened lol

Yeah ...'was only bustin' ...

Right - when writing for court-yard rabble, there's going to be unreachable dissension - agreed.

that'a curious statement, bold abv... as "climate suggesting patter relaxation" may qualify - that's really the point I'm making this morning. Again, modeled this and teleconnector that tend toward increasing "entropy" at this time of year - in other words, disorder. And that's code for being less dependable and well duh, transition seasons tend to see enhanced stochastic model performance - that's why. I disagree that we need 'something much more' than relaxation in the flow - nah bro... These things are sensitive beneath the specter of the larger moving parts, and it doesn't take much 850 mb insert of cold into an on-going dynamic system and shocking huge sensible weather difference result from relatively small inputs all the time. A progressive bowling ball with a well time plume... 62 32 54 62 colorado special, no problem.

Keep an open mind, tho -