Typhoon Tip

I don't think it diminishes the essence of the point he's making - you know this .. but there's no time requirement that strictly invalidates. Cold early is the take-away. Just sayn' That said, I don't believe 1989 can be used as an analog with the climate flux, anyway. In fact, most analog methods are in trouble when comparing derivatives from then, to now... as the Global physical 'atmospheric machinery' that is ultimately instructed/govern/a response to distribution of heat source and sink, has empirically changed and therefore it is reasonable to question different "gears" so to speak. That's why super Nino several years ago only registered weakly in global statistical packages ... list goes on. Not gonna get into it, because one can be black and white right and people will attempt to controvert merely because they don't like it - blah blah. Worse yet ... we live in a post-Industrial Revolution relative utopia of convenience that's causing a neggie cultural feed-back, where people can rely on faux implausibilities to sooth, and systemic/recreational denial, and not have to suffer the consequence of their decisions because said IR advantages is there to clean up the proverbial shit of their mistakes and stupid thinking. Enter the internet and now you have islands and schismatic belief systems that are thus re-inforced for not sensing consequence. 'Hey, we gotta be right, then.' That's why GW doesn't exist by the way..

No ... just mentioning that as an afterthought for conceptual comparisons and so forth. Since nothing in a universe that is ultimately built on quantum uncertainty principles has a probability of perfectly 0% ... there's always hope though -

What makes the GFS particularly annoying is that it's been a busted ravioli with this thing all along, and just when the other guidance show more progrssive flow and sort of nod to the GFS' previous ideas, it turns around at the surface. I dunno...I haven't read what others have written but, to me this seems like a stay the course as a 55%'er for strike and nothing's really changed, not based on the overnight. We're still just D5.5-ish ...which technically no guidance type really owns that range - at a baser operational level there's that. But just from my experience with guidance over the years ... a mid range product dump is not that uncommon, only to get it back passing into 96 hour leads. This is a difficult one for a couple of conflicting reasons. For one, the flow is speeding up again. Fyi folks... the 06z GFS at 260 hours has 150+ no wind max running NE off the MA associated with that pseudo-adiabatic faux bomb... The system is unlikely, but the hemisphere has seen these hyper jets on a few occasions this year; this one is the more extreme I've personally seen modeled - though as said, the tapestry of that period is likely to change, it's just that huge wind maxes of that ilk are not unprecedented. I can tell you, if anything like that ever did happen, that would be some kind of true freak of nature. The hydrostatic forcing almost appears physically implausible at that extreme. Interesting.. So anyway, ... the flow is speeding up and we have rest state geopotential wind velocities between 50 and 70 kts outside of S/W wind maxes. That should make phasing and timing problematic. So, unraveling solutions like the 00z panoply are not exactly unwarranted. Yet, the R-wave is unusually long, which is both required for faster balanced speed, but, can be made up for if the entire construct of the flow is actually progressive - which the period in question appears to be struggling with how much so that is the case. ... As a seasonal trend... bombs are having trouble ( save NS/NF!)... They are being consummately over-modeled between D's 5 to 10's ...only to end up with these streaky pallid lows that are middling and pedestrian ..pick the adjective. I see this as already doing that right before our eyes... or at least, trying to get there at least excuse. I mentioned several days ago that I thought a middling low bottle rocketing off the M/A in a failed phase - in no small part related to x-coordinate falling out of sync with the y due to velocity saturation) ... this overnight series seems to be heading in that way if clumbsy and so-so agreement with details. Weird winter... We got the early storm but ever since it's been either excessive middle troposphere wind velocities offering canvased destructive wave interference, or... so relaxed that we wobble weak gradient features that don't do much - this latter character basically the last couple of weeks. But, we may be flipping back into rage wind again... One thing I've also noticed is that the AO has been predominately positive this year, and that's probably adding to the wind contamination issues... We have that over the top of the already well-documented HC expansion issue, and what you end up with are boreal winter heights kissing a surplus of Global latent heat and there we are with maximizing jets... You can't win...because if the AO does crash and we get bona fide blocking/south suppression of the mean polar jet, it's going to squeeze matters that way too... But like in 2015, that happened, but so extreme that we end up on the N side of the jet in the relative slower region of deep heights and low QPF/high ratio bombs.

ICON giveth ICON taketh away

Know what's funny ? that model has the best continuity from 12z to 18z out of all of them

What a cluster f!

You mean other than the fact that it's the ICON ? right -

It may be ...and I realize this post of yours I am responding to is now passe/9 hours ago or whatever... but this bevy missy solutions coming out fits my contentions earlier yesterday regarding the flow speeding up again in the models. They may be too quick in doing so... and things get more velocity saturated later on and/or else less so over all, but these missed phases and bottle rocked southern stream scenarios are because the flow is too fast for interacting wave mechanics to do so in time to clip the eastern Seaboard. I could buy it up in the Maritimes "if" the model tenor to increase speed by this weekend is both real and needs factoring.

Lol

Meanwhile the 18z GEFs went less impressive

I've noticed that the EPS mean tends to deviate from it's operational version less so than say the GEPs with the GGEM, or GEFs and GFS. ... In a sense, when it doesn that might be more of a telling red flag. The 00z version of the mean was at least a little more coalesced SE of the Cape/Long Island than the operational nadda...so, that was interesting. I'm curious if that slight, yet plausibly important differential persists or as you say...slips east.

We're spraying solutions all over the plausibility map ... yeah, we know - Nothing is also possible for that matter.

Nah .... it's only personally guilty if you think it's for validation - as in, it's going to happen. There's nothing wrong with having fun - it's a social media pass-time, one that has emerged because of the Internet advent meets with models that should be available to the tax-payers that ultimately foot the bill. It's just that people's purpose for the engagement vary, ...some unhealthy. That's not us - or 'me' anyway. The 12z Euro now is two runs back to back with no bueno on anything. Hard to to tell ... it did flatten the undulate big-time western ridge signal as I suspected, but it's - I think - tizzying over what to do with the wave lengths down stream and it's messed it up. Heh, in an intuitive sence, it may be a better sign for a system for that model to "not" carry one at D7.5. I mean, if it's finding its way with the pattern, you almost don't want it tossing up bombs because than you know you got no fun there. I'm curious about the EPS

I like this GEFs spread on the western side there... Man, some deep members in there, too - phew. I'd have to say, overall this looks like more members on board compared to the 06z ... But this all d7.5+ it's tough. I maintain that these can only still implicate a time frame of interest - can't stress enough. I suspect Wed would be the thread fire off time if one is need. Ha

Ha ha ... Hey I gave it up - "nope" but couldn't resist... That thing out at at 300 + is about 50% toward a 1993 analog just from orbit btw - that oughta get some hopes unwarranted -

Nope ... That's the short answer But the prudent question really should be...is it realistic to expect any of it to happen - haha. To witch, we know the answer to that question; we just hedge bets and rationalisms much of the time in trying to will certain results into existence. All humor has a modicum of truth to it. Fact of the matter is, the models typically do not cast depictions that are "physically impossible" ? If so, that wouldn't be a very confident forecast model, would it. This facet is sort of baked in, yup ..but it's why folks' will come back at 6 to see the 18z version - ...hopes dashed as they typically are...Or, re-enforced...etc... Unfortunately, the atmospheric dynamo out in time is one that has factors of fractals to it's behavior, with non-present variables that are destined to emerge in time to alter outcomes. That's the only reason why a D8 Euro bomb fails. It's probably withing plausibility but the model corrected where it shouldn't, and/or something reared along the way to change things - but it was not originally impossible.

No... the better eye-candy is this 12z GGEM ... that sucker went from nadda to historic in the 500 mb synoptic evolution in one run! Not sure what it's doing at the surface but eesh

I was just geeking to the individual members and there are some definitely big bunners in that solution set from 00z... About 3 of the freebie members over and PSU look historic at 500 mb alone ( I don't tend to pay too close attention to their surface evolutions for anything beyond D4 as they are consummately too warm and tucked into the N wall of their 500 mb cores as a general rule...). But ironically ...upon looking at that mean, which is interesting with a few members at 186 hour < 965 mb just off the Cape, I can see why there are some deep solutions, not tucked/wrapped to the west. EPS does not appear interested from the previous cycle but I haven't seen the 06z Edit, I'm a dipshit..I was just looking at the 00z 500mb GEF members for the 06z surface evolutions - yeah... some odd ballz huh. oy

Where is he in AK? That's a hugemangous geographical area. He could be in a local-scale anomaly that doesn't reflect a the bigger picture because smaller relative spaces up there ...they're like Kansas sized. That's A The second aspect about that claim is that it was just several years ago that Valdez AK and surrounding points set snow records that were were historically above seasonal norms. I don't know what the specific numbers were, but there hasn't been much press about this year, to date. Maybe something will surface. .. Fact of the matter is, where cold is available...all over the world, snow result tendency are positive anomalous -

Y'all need to codify some form of primmer requirement for usage on the site if it is that annoying. It too often comes across as though those posting in that mind-space, more likely don't know any better? So, rather than passive shaming, which conjures other problems, try education. Something, anything... but, hoi-polloi appear to be able to sign up with limited or no prequalification for substantive contribution, unless they espouse being a Met (not sure if this social media platform requires credentials for that); else they have away at it. There's a conflict of interest. If this site's background agenda is profit through banner ads and so forth, the attraction cannot deny entry either - so the battle has to unfortunately be fought and won on this side of the allowability. Understood. So ... the options are clear, you have to isolinearly tag individuals exhibiting the less refined, overtly emotive response to tools meant for a tool box. Oh well.. But still, there could be a 'cultural' awareness of said primmer sourcing... or the like. --------------------------------------------- I suspect the pattern change is the culprit in the overnight abandonment issue with operational guidance' I wouldn't discard the notion that the nothing results - or to be more specific, something happens, just not here. Sometimes - baser philosophy of model usage - when the more refined operational versions of each cluster begin to converge on a consensus, their lesser sophisticated ensemble members will begin to fall in line. It's like 33% someodd percent of the time, the weight seems to pull from the other direction. That said, I think the EPS' idea of a flat bottle rocket southern stream low ejection off the MA that doesn't get the N/stream benefit until the lower Maritimes, may be a course of lesser regret. I mentioned the following yesterday that the flow appears destined to another episode of compression/higher velocities. I don't know if it will be as extreme as before ...when several west-east intercontinental flights set ground-based speed records ...soaring over 800 mph! No...but, when the HC "deflated" a couple weeks ago, and heralded in a new pattern featuring flow relaxation, it went like 'too far' in the other direction? ...for interesting weather events, that is.. So far, the guidance tenor when blending multiple sources, appears to want to bring it mid-way back in extremeness. Which...may and probably will provide its own headaches. I still suspect that the Euro operational is too amplified in the D8-10 ... It's treating western N/A below the 60-70th latitudes like the Pacific is drilling a fantastic AB phased -EPO...yet it really has pallid blocking inside the EPO domain space - I dunno, I think the progressive nature of the flow in the GFS may be more correct by complexion alone, obviously 'details' in the GFS cannot be trusted. Tough to separate those two in folks' minds. They'll tend to not see where the model is right, in lieu of not getting that 'forecast high' from a bomb cinema at publications times, but I digress..

00z GFS underscores the speeding up flow and the muddled phasing point I mentioned earlier. probably have on off runs through Wed

The only thing that would make that better is shaving 1C off the 850s and a new moon... so two things. But, stalling a 950s mb low in Boston Harbor some 180 hours out isn't really too appealing to me in a fast flow regime that requires impeccable stream dynamical handling/interaction at precision finite scales - that intrinsically can't be done. This is a luck solution spit out I'm afraid - as nice as it is to watch. But we all know this... just sayn'. I hate to say, seeing some evidence that the fast flow is trying to recur/evolve as a semi-permanent characteristic to that extended, ...across multiple guidance camps. The HC is sort of expanding her again. Note the spring in the deep south on the Euro...typically a mid Feb look down there, but three weeks earlier than normal, sets the stage for two aspects: huge gradient between the Canadian shield and the subtropics; and that is balanced by quickening mid level velocities everywhere. That makes phasing problematic. Can't have the x- corrdinate accelerating past the y ( N-S ) or the southern stream bi-passes N/stream wave mechanics. If one objectively goes back across the last several cycles of the GFS you can see this contention struggling in the guidance, with two perfect result runs ( this 18z and one couple days ago), otherwise, near misses or even inland ( unrealistic solution) runners. I don't see much curling inland through the Lakes with said flow tending to speed up... It's should be stretching wave lengths. I am aware that the Euro is flagging some sort of -EPO hybrid circulation structure out there at the end of the run but I don't believe that's going to transpire that way. There's not much about the west thru N- Pac arc that really translates toward a -EPO expectation. Possibly a flat fast +PNA offering some +PNAP amplitude downstream over mid latitude N/A, but that could easily be over meridian saturated when it comes to the Euro out there beyond D 6's. Not that the GFS is any better in it's own annoyances. I think that system next weekend/early next week should be watched - duh. There's too much presentation in both the ensembles for some form of amplitude in the east. I wouldn't count on phasing from this range without a good bit of luck and it would take that if the flow does get sheary fast.

Did anyone post the Euro snow tots ? morbidly curious

there's kind of a whisper back to the last 6 years here ... The bitch years had 'some'thing to look at in Febs...

Lot has to go right for that... This weekend's spent a considerable amount of time under long island in the various guidance clusters, too ... it would be funny if it all busted that way anyway, but excluding the extreme unlikeliness. There are doses of skepticism in here, but we have been correcting toward the ST L transit all season since the Dec 2 thing... Countless extended range betrayals to those that post and pretend they're aren't hopeful. Ha. awesomely transparent. Okay, it's not physically "im"possible for that Euro to happen. But that near perfection? So, taking a bite of of rudimentary deterministic philosophical sammich... any other solution other than perfect is by mathematical default, less perfect. But, that's true on the sliding scale too... up and down. Anything at the 80th percentile, by default means that the ballast of potential solutions will fall less impressive. I mean that's just it... that's why these D9er mean shit. If the cinema of the models is enough to keep folks elated and charged... okay. just sayn'. But your reality is thus fake