Typhoon Tip

Ah hahahahaha ... oy yup. pretty much... I really am at a place now where I should start looking for ways to leave this part of the country for that month. I think I could time share a tornado alley residence ... like, who in their right might would GO to eastern Oklahoma in April... right? I grew up with convection as my number one fascination,... I really didn't adopt as much interest in winter stuff until I moved locally... Now my interest time-shares -

Not to go too far off topic... whatever that is ... But, 1987 was the first spring I experienced in New England that caught me off guard and taught me a hard lesson that we don't really have spring in New England... At least I thought until about 10 years ago... In 1987 I was all of four years transplanted from the Great Lakes that year, the first of which was spent out on the end of Cape Ann - even being green to the climate of the region, I was savvy enough to realize that with veritable ice bergs in the harbor (proverbially speaking...) until the end of July off Cape Ann, odds were we weren't going anywhere in Rockport, Massachusetts. By '85 and '86 I had moved well inland to the 495 belt ...far enough so to relish in more of a landward climate ... Those two years were not that bad... we got lucky. But 1987 ...man... we had a 14 day cut-off menace in April that spun spokes of grapple showers raking New England from NF/NS ... some that even flipped to garbage snow and lowered visibility at times... Toward the end of that two weeks, the low actually got stronger and we ended up with a week or so of persistent rains and boat load-o flooding. Pretty sure that's annulled. Between 1987 ... and say 2008, 3/4 of all springs were often severely belated. Seasonal recoveries flat-lined with very shallow slopes... only to hockey-stick sometime between May and June. 2005's May seriously flat lined the recovery... like 0 slope for 20 days - it wast that bad. The epitome of late sudden seasonal flashing... I remember on the 27th of May it was 46 F ... with mist, and a week later it was 94/74 when I piled out of work down in Marlborough Mass around June 6 I think it was. Ironically...that three days of torridity might have been the worst of it that summer... It sort of was unremarkable after that. Anyway, the 30 years of my life I've been around eastern New England ...I've grown to focus my loathing on the the month of April. Enough Mays have been reasonable along the way, that I'm will let 2005 go as a fluke... barely.. But April is an unforgivable shit month that if I was god, would not exist ... March flips to May's climate period. About 10 years ago...we started getting into this era of unusual warm springs ... about half of them, I'd assess cursorily thinking back over this last decade. We've had down right hot spells in March... and a few of them in April. We've had some bad springs too... more in-line with the previous tendencies going way back.. .But, just the frequency of springs that were unusually warm at times has picked up.

it just happened in 2012 in Braintree ...

Whether the governing causes are the same or not ... who knows, but ... the end result is a winter that does remind me a good deal of that era ... ~ 1983 - 1988 or so... Someone will now try to prove that wrong by dissecting the causality of both and demonstrate how they are not the same ... don't bother. I just said, 'whether the governing causes are the same or not' - talking about the finished product only. Having said that, as Jerry just recently reminded ... there have been winters in the past where some 70% of that season's winter expression came after the 20th of the February... I get it that it's not something this trail of abuses (haha) lends one to believe would ever lead to our collective reward... but, reality and perception do suffer divorce at times. The reality is, that possibility cannot be removed. By the way,... the GFS' 06z FV3 counterpart tallied somewhere between 20 and 30" pan-region ... owning to five storms, four of which were moderate snow producers. No one is asking me... but, I don't see any model's solution from overnight as being impossible. Things could break that way ...with fast moving potency that clocks 4-6" repeaters ... or, grind to a flat ridge ennui hell like the Euro... either is supported. So, as impossible as it is to be objective and "keep one's hopes alive" as a winter enthusiast, there are still chances... But don't worry! We're not calling it "luck"

Clarification... "Luck" and "chance" are what occurs when the observer doesn't see or get to see, all the subtle forces in real time the effect the emergence of future circumstance/events. That sounds similar to the plight of weather prognostics - duh! If one could readily quantize/qualify all the Quantum States of every Plank-length virtual or real particle in real time ... with exactness ( something on the order of incalculably large ... Googleplex ... mind you ) then they would know what all possible permutations are available to a given domain space, in a given time; and then "chance" ... "luck" ... whatever we want call or define uncertainty, is no longer uncertain and therefore, ceases to exist. Until then? To get around chance's rearing it's ugly unpropitious influence, or kindly favorable outcomes, would require something like omniscience be available to either the technology, or the artist. Not happening ... In other words, luck in human parlance is purely a function of human limitations. Just get over it and move on... If you don't know, and things happen in favor, or against ... that is by definition chance working in favor or against... If you don't want to call it luck, when "luck" is defined by chance - than you have issues accepting either the language or the reality... I suspect its the language... because one phenomenon I've noted about dealing with the public over the last decade of on and off involvement with social -media of this nature, is that when people are aggravated and p'ode and annoyed by what they are not getting out of the drama of modeling and/or the realization of the type of weather they want ... they redirect into vapid bickering over how others choose to describe thing. Ugh - ice pick in the ear socket man... Let it f'n go!

Seems hard to manufacture a stout -NAO in a fast overall flow ... Conceptually, "fast flow" and "blocking" are at odds. So on a sort of rudimentary level of thinking, it's almost easier to assume -NAO would have difficulty being sustained... Note, I said sustained. A transient -NAO, east, west, north or south biased, perhaps... But, we gotta keep in mind, the NAO is a relatively small index domain space, and is prone to smaller scaled influences passing through, that can cause it to move positive(negative) in intra-weekly time scales. I think to be fair, folks mean "-NAO" in the context of it being of the variety that is associated with dipping heights over NE N/A? ...Similar to the assistance we witnessed last late February into March of 2018, I'm not sure I see that happening, no.

I'm not sure that is entirely true.. that excerpt "...if not everyone in the Meteorological community..." wrt to winter forecasts having failed better returns. Assuming his context is snow and cold. I saw/read antithetic leading seasonal forecasts too. I recall a pretty clear tendency to "elide" those outlooks in the general consuming audience of hobbyist, and even many among the more professional circuitry. The subjective culture would rather be taken in by the more appealing tsunamis of gelid, glacial guess work ... Heh... it was a triple-G winter.. "Guess work" ... that word choice is not there to deride or even impugn anyone's brow-rubbing efforts. That is sarcasm to the objective reader and should be taken with humility and humor. That said, let's be blunt and honest, ... There are no 1::1 correlations in this game. There has to be an element of educated guessing... And one such assumption: people fancied a weak if not even moderate El Nino, maturing during the winter. Even NCEP was advertising this .. Oh, I'm sure the ambit of the minds, from the officiate ranks, to the private sector and back ... all had their various cogent reasons. Some even wrote quite convincing turns of phrase. Without getting into invalidating anyone's method .. just generically, there were two concerns with not only using that, but using that as a scaffold for constructing a seasonal outlook. 1 .. There was no El Nino during the autumn ... which for newly arriving El Ninos, that's actually not atypical? It's true...statistics amply show that they tend to mature in late winters and early spring.. Well, logically, ...how, then, is a weak El Ninos forcing effecting late Novie, thru December and January when it's not even "weak" until early Martch? Intuitively, most of that winter ... is gone, gobbled up while waiting. Adding to that, there is some question now arriving whether El Nino really will take place at all. No surprise, pretty much at no point to-date, has NCEP's observation net detected evidence that ENSO has sufficiently coupled to the atmospheric circulation medium over the broad expanse of the Pacific. What that means in lay-terms is that any seasonal outlook heavily guided - not saying that was Isotherm or you or whomever, just in general - by ENSO forcing were summarily rendered dubious at best as that reality emerged. There are mixed errors in that... One part of it isn't really the fault of the seasonal outlook engineer. The failure of the warm ENSO maturation (to-date) and the concomitant lack of atmospheric coupled state ... "to me" those are not really foreseeable beyond accidental ("luck" as some begrudgingly argue as of late) intangible results. However, the idea that El Nino would be a clearer force in modulating the characteristic of the hemispheric scope was flawed (potentially) and too anticipated, too fast. I also have a separate point of contention wrt to the Pacific SST/ ENSO and all that... and it has to do with preponderant, homogenized warming of the atmosphere that is empirically measured on Earth ( ) ...spanning a hundred years of growth and is apparently accelerating. If the air is warmer... (and that includes the amount of DP in the air already existing when said air moves over warm body of water) there is going to be less heat added to that air because of physical law. Well, less heat added to the air means you are not actually changing that air as much... so, the SST are less effective at modulating the air, that air does not gradate as largely... Weaker resulting gradient = weaker responses. The idea here is that I personally believe the El Nino (or any El Nino for that matter) that is "weak" in character, risk being overly assessed as a forcing mechanism. Anyway, I only fault the seasonal outlook community on parts of all the above. I do agree that the Pacific is the problem for winter enthusiasts this year though. Evidence in that fact that we've had ample cold...certainly enough for history to have been made - not historic destructive interference.. The EPO and AO have been sufficient at delivering mid -latitude cold to date. But I was just commenting to Will yesterday that the more I personally reflect on matters ..this has been a crippling -PNAP winter... That's slightly different than PNA ...but closely relates. Anyway, the orientation of the flow structure over N/A is obviously heavily guided by Pacific so having a dearth of ridging along 100 to 110 west probably has roots there.

No ...there really isn't anything "mild" about that Euro look.. It's a giant destructive interference ... not sooner does an active pacific eject S/W into the west, they then get mincemeat by the bulbous bitch boob over Georgia. The more I reflect on matters.. .it's just been a stalwart, undeviating -PNA winter and there does not appear to be any countermanding forces capable of usurping it as dictator. These non-committal -EPO deviations are only adding to it by dropping coupled trough through Pac NW but never maturing them into an eventual +PNAP roll-out... It just needs a comet impact to alter -

The Euro just will not give up on this SE ridge flex it's arcing D6-10... We'll see what the 12z cluster does here soon. The EPS' displays over at Tropical Tids are, as usual, reflecting some tempered version of the operational, but they too have been demonstrative and consistent. The GEFs derived teleconnectors actually give plenty of conceptual room for something like that or its blend... with a modestly negative EPO, and an on-going raging -PNA.... Yet, the operational GFS keeps trying to buck that tapestry and goes for a zonal, albeit, amplified flow with lots of rapid fire pac waves. All that after a season of heart ache and sorrow, too... Makes it that much harder to envision how all that ends well for winter enthusiasts. it's called conditioning ...

Funny how that seems seasonally endemic... the snow pack retention vs failure. Some years yes... the pack ain't goin' nowhere. Other years, just seem to go out of their way to melt down the snow pack to bear Earth before "allowing" it to snow again.. .heh. Kidding but it does seem like if snows 4" ... if takes 20 days to melt it off, it will wait 20 days before it snows again... If it takes 10 days to melt it off... it snows on D11 ... It's like an agenda NOT to have snow sustain across two disparate events. Fascinating... but this year appears similar to this latter ilk. I have had this 4" combination of sleet/snow/gunk at four distinct different times now, and the season did not produce anything else until each one was down to mud and frozen bear Earth. If trend persistence was the singular indicator ... my bet would be that Monday or whatever new threat-meme is is hot right now ...won't do shit until whatever we call this glacial remains from this last event is scoured clear and clean of the soil. Haha... Yeah, it's probably all coincidence that things have worked out this way... But, I have actually noticed that similar antic in previous years... where there does seem an uncanny tendency to not snow until whatever's in the pack is gone. interesting.

what I imagine happening as the "kink" secondary starts approaching, we'll get more gradient to move a NE/ENE flow into the coast, and then the establishment of a CF will help the wind on the west side backing more N ...and that'll be the ball game -

Pretty significant change in the CPC teleconnector outlooks overnight... After more than week's (really) continuity, the extended domains have all abruptly entered modality. The AO falls precipitously among all members ... quite aggressively, with surprisingly well clustering. The NAO is subtly sagging but... I'm thinking it's 'sag' is probably more related to the AO sharing domain space with it and that the latter is merely imposing its weight. The PNA, may in fact be unrelated to the AO's forcing/causality and probably is ... but, it's showing an interesting spike ... Which as an aside, I find interesting, but some of the ensemble members of x-y-z clusters have at times indicated an active pattern next week so, we could be merely blind to soon emergence, so to speak. In the meantime, the AO is interesting because the MJO has been showing bit of a robust migration through the left side quadratures of the WH lately... several days that's been the case. The way the MJO correlates with the AO is through the easterly trades along the 55th parallel. When the MJO is in a strong Phase 8,... and it's dispersion/syncing induces Rosby inclination ..that can enhance mid level cyclogenesis parameters ... of which easterly loading at mid latitudes ensues. That sort of "defaults" the AO into a negative status... and may draw the numbers down (even) without very demonstrative blocking nodes in those times. Other times, the AO is clearly positive with blocking without the MJO's default... and when the MJO then enters a favorable wave space, look out! Anyway, simpler put: the AO might be tanking because of the MJO migration over the next 10 days... It could be a hemisphere that's a bit more constructively interfering this time - stay tuned!.

Never had much issue with the NAM's termination latitudes for that elevating WCB .. my self. In terms of ptype, that's almost a separate argument. Total impact ...whether ZR, PL ...mixing with snow are all snow.. have their own headaches and can be ironed out under the banner of Winter Storm Warning, in general... I am pleased enough given what " I " see in the synoptic evolution, for the layout of the warning/advisory .. wouldn't split hairs. The issue for us locally... really from eastern Maine down thru CT ... as is normal for this "tuck" region, is the fact that topographic forcing is adding vectors to the N/NNE/NE drain/ageostrophic low-levels, ... a factor that the models, regardless of resolution, have not seemed to mastered. Particularly adding to this "standard correction" an actual physically correlated high pressure situated ideally (as is demoed countless times in climatology mind you) ... N of Maine, already in place and modeled to resist as lower pressure attempts to approach the region from the SSW, there is a high likelihood of busting the interior cold in this. I really don't have a problem with ORD's icestorm layout ending up (or should be already...) along the southern rim of the present WSW region and also occupying some of the northern rim where sits present Advisory layout. ...But, again, probably splits hairs. Obviously ... NWS' is to some degree mandated and cow-tied to toeing the model lines ... because (as I was told by an ex-employee), if one mavericks an outlook and is wrong, there is a short leash on that type of approach - which there really should be. I mean, we're talking about a service that is inherently charged with the macro-responsibility of millions of lives/civility safety. Not on a sunny day...mind us. But, in these sort of situations - so, there needs to be reliance upon higher regulatory practices. The idea here is to improve the models... We'll see how the chips fall in this... I'd be shocked if ORH gets above 31 prior to ...occluded passage.. In fact, I could see CT/RI and southern new england zones popping to almost 40 after the that passages.

Can't get quite enough difluence mechanics

Think that's a slam dunk guys…but it's also possible that we don't tuck because there's no real reason to slosh back cuz just being underestimated in the bottom layer all along with more ageo

Secondary just doesn't get stronger ... it'd cut off that 700 mbar elevated WCB fold it back into a trowal ...that would be a fun bust

24/2 Ayer

Yeah honestly .. I don't see that happening. I mean the warmth can fist all it wants above 900 ... Ptype fine . But the surface locks at or less than freezing in this shoukd be a warning for dual/ aggregate impact

NAM is colder at Logan in the T1 sigma level on the FRH FOUS. Never higher than 0 C at that level probably signals close to warning ice after several inches of sno ORH to ASH ... nasty storm should that pan out But I have feelin this may be an inch of PLs again for many n of the pike

Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly. I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever... straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news. It'll be interesting -

kind of like it split ... half sped up for earlier Friday...while some other thing (that looks unrealistic ...) for later next Tuesday night... probably all just a function of the high velocity form of amplitude. ... S/W coming in and out of physical sounding domain spaces and assimilators offer a cornucopia of disruptions to continuity... None of that weekender thing was ever inside of D4 ...heh, stands to reason ...

almost fell off my chair when I saw the Euro... All the consternation for days... over what - completely gone. ah ahahhaahahaha

NAM looks like 6" than PL/ZR nw of PVD to Boston

Well ... I haven't admittedly paid much attention to it this season, but that's mainly because we haven't had had anything really to use it for

I thought the RGEM had to be inside 36 hours. Pretty sure now isn't that