Typhoon Tip

No ...there really isn't anything "mild" about that Euro look.. It's a giant destructive interference ... not sooner does an active pacific eject S/W into the west, they then get mincemeat by the bulbous bitch boob over Georgia. The more I reflect on matters.. .it's just been a stalwart, undeviating -PNA winter and there does not appear to be any countermanding forces capable of usurping it as dictator. These non-committal -EPO deviations are only adding to it by dropping coupled trough through Pac NW but never maturing them into an eventual +PNAP roll-out... It just needs a comet impact to alter -

The Euro just will not give up on this SE ridge flex it's arcing D6-10... We'll see what the 12z cluster does here soon. The EPS' displays over at Tropical Tids are, as usual, reflecting some tempered version of the operational, but they too have been demonstrative and consistent. The GEFs derived teleconnectors actually give plenty of conceptual room for something like that or its blend... with a modestly negative EPO, and an on-going raging -PNA.... Yet, the operational GFS keeps trying to buck that tapestry and goes for a zonal, albeit, amplified flow with lots of rapid fire pac waves. All that after a season of heart ache and sorrow, too... Makes it that much harder to envision how all that ends well for winter enthusiasts. it's called conditioning ...

Funny how that seems seasonally endemic... the snow pack retention vs failure. Some years yes... the pack ain't goin' nowhere. Other years, just seem to go out of their way to melt down the snow pack to bear Earth before "allowing" it to snow again.. .heh. Kidding but it does seem like if snows 4" ... if takes 20 days to melt it off, it will wait 20 days before it snows again... If it takes 10 days to melt it off... it snows on D11 ... It's like an agenda NOT to have snow sustain across two disparate events. Fascinating... but this year appears similar to this latter ilk. I have had this 4" combination of sleet/snow/gunk at four distinct different times now, and the season did not produce anything else until each one was down to mud and frozen bear Earth. If trend persistence was the singular indicator ... my bet would be that Monday or whatever new threat-meme is is hot right now ...won't do shit until whatever we call this glacial remains from this last event is scoured clear and clean of the soil. Haha... Yeah, it's probably all coincidence that things have worked out this way... But, I have actually noticed that similar antic in previous years... where there does seem an uncanny tendency to not snow until whatever's in the pack is gone. interesting.

what I imagine happening as the "kink" secondary starts approaching, we'll get more gradient to move a NE/ENE flow into the coast, and then the establishment of a CF will help the wind on the west side backing more N ...and that'll be the ball game -

Pretty significant change in the CPC teleconnector outlooks overnight... After more than week's (really) continuity, the extended domains have all abruptly entered modality. The AO falls precipitously among all members ... quite aggressively, with surprisingly well clustering. The NAO is subtly sagging but... I'm thinking it's 'sag' is probably more related to the AO sharing domain space with it and that the latter is merely imposing its weight. The PNA, may in fact be unrelated to the AO's forcing/causality and probably is ... but, it's showing an interesting spike ... Which as an aside, I find interesting, but some of the ensemble members of x-y-z clusters have at times indicated an active pattern next week so, we could be merely blind to soon emergence, so to speak. In the meantime, the AO is interesting because the MJO has been showing bit of a robust migration through the left side quadratures of the WH lately... several days that's been the case. The way the MJO correlates with the AO is through the easterly trades along the 55th parallel. When the MJO is in a strong Phase 8,... and it's dispersion/syncing induces Rosby inclination ..that can enhance mid level cyclogenesis parameters ... of which easterly loading at mid latitudes ensues. That sort of "defaults" the AO into a negative status... and may draw the numbers down (even) without very demonstrative blocking nodes in those times. Other times, the AO is clearly positive with blocking without the MJO's default... and when the MJO then enters a favorable wave space, look out! Anyway, simpler put: the AO might be tanking because of the MJO migration over the next 10 days... It could be a hemisphere that's a bit more constructively interfering this time - stay tuned!.

Never had much issue with the NAM's termination latitudes for that elevating WCB .. my self. In terms of ptype, that's almost a separate argument. Total impact ...whether ZR, PL ...mixing with snow are all snow.. have their own headaches and can be ironed out under the banner of Winter Storm Warning, in general... I am pleased enough given what " I " see in the synoptic evolution, for the layout of the warning/advisory .. wouldn't split hairs. The issue for us locally... really from eastern Maine down thru CT ... as is normal for this "tuck" region, is the fact that topographic forcing is adding vectors to the N/NNE/NE drain/ageostrophic low-levels, ... a factor that the models, regardless of resolution, have not seemed to mastered. Particularly adding to this "standard correction" an actual physically correlated high pressure situated ideally (as is demoed countless times in climatology mind you) ... N of Maine, already in place and modeled to resist as lower pressure attempts to approach the region from the SSW, there is a high likelihood of busting the interior cold in this. I really don't have a problem with ORD's icestorm layout ending up (or should be already...) along the southern rim of the present WSW region and also occupying some of the northern rim where sits present Advisory layout. ...But, again, probably splits hairs. Obviously ... NWS' is to some degree mandated and cow-tied to toeing the model lines ... because (as I was told by an ex-employee), if one mavericks an outlook and is wrong, there is a short leash on that type of approach - which there really should be. I mean, we're talking about a service that is inherently charged with the macro-responsibility of millions of lives/civility safety. Not on a sunny day...mind us. But, in these sort of situations - so, there needs to be reliance upon higher regulatory practices. The idea here is to improve the models... We'll see how the chips fall in this... I'd be shocked if ORH gets above 31 prior to ...occluded passage.. In fact, I could see CT/RI and southern new england zones popping to almost 40 after the that passages.

Can't get quite enough difluence mechanics

Think that's a slam dunk guys…but it's also possible that we don't tuck because there's no real reason to slosh back cuz just being underestimated in the bottom layer all along with more ageo

Secondary just doesn't get stronger ... it'd cut off that 700 mbar elevated WCB fold it back into a trowal ...that would be a fun bust

24/2 Ayer

Yeah honestly .. I don't see that happening. I mean the warmth can fist all it wants above 900 ... Ptype fine . But the surface locks at or less than freezing in this shoukd be a warning for dual/ aggregate impact

NAM is colder at Logan in the T1 sigma level on the FRH FOUS. Never higher than 0 C at that level probably signals close to warning ice after several inches of sno ORH to ASH ... nasty storm should that pan out But I have feelin this may be an inch of PLs again for many n of the pike

Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly. I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever... straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news. It'll be interesting -

kind of like it split ... half sped up for earlier Friday...while some other thing (that looks unrealistic ...) for later next Tuesday night... probably all just a function of the high velocity form of amplitude. ... S/W coming in and out of physical sounding domain spaces and assimilators offer a cornucopia of disruptions to continuity... None of that weekender thing was ever inside of D4 ...heh, stands to reason ...

almost fell off my chair when I saw the Euro... All the consternation for days... over what - completely gone. ah ahahhaahahaha

NAM looks like 6" than PL/ZR nw of PVD to Boston

Well ... I haven't admittedly paid much attention to it this season, but that's mainly because we haven't had had anything really to use it for

I thought the RGEM had to be inside 36 hours. Pretty sure now isn't that

More or less.. yes ... But it's relative to season - I admit to my human condition in such matters. Take 2015, February: ...I was tickled pink. It was fascinating... both scientifically and experiential ... rarities and extremes dispensed like pezz candies. I didn't want that to end... In fact, right into March it stayed frigid. It was as though the Pacific "short wave budget" simply ran dry ... we had surplus cold with no more storms, otherwise we coulda been bombs away clear to the ides... But, as it were, the snow siege part of all that pretty much shut down for season around that first week... In no time in the span did I share in the the point of view I am in right now... Frankly, anyone that wants this winter and it's particular flavor to continue must get off on eating shit!

Yeah... GFS went ahead and undid four cycles of southward correction with that lead warm sector for the end of the week ... and went blithely right back to the previous dynamic of heralding GW to James Bay haha ... Yet, it still tries to implode a secondary bomb in the middle of the quasi-barotropic region out ahead of the main cfront...? Huh. weird. Anyway, it's too bad... The mid and U/A features are correcting south given time ... This run at least stayed course with that particular aspect ... It's just the that lower troposphere man .. it is such a f dumpster fire. Boy, this winter can't end fast enough for me... I dunno at this point I'm ready for it to all go away. Lets call it a day and start looking forward to the new season - for those of us capable of doing so... There'll always be next winter. I get it that March can be x-y-z and I'm sure I'll knock back a shot of hypocrisy if it does but ... I ain't missin' it y'all .. We're good for 1 decent spring in 5 ... Problem is, it's getting harder to determine that because these maddening extremes keep skewing what is and is not a bad spring. Like, for me...last year was a donkey bj ... But, the year before, we had a week in the 70s in March and capped it with an 84 ... But April went on to scrape knees for donkeys ... The last rim to rim decent spring I remember is 2012 ... or maybe the year we got to 90 on Easter? I dunno, feel like statistically the "law of averages" owes us. heh

You won't find it, per se ... I was referring to the Norwegian Cyclone Model ... It has a distinct array of steps it "sequences" thru - ... Will knew what I meant in that case. Basically, step 1 ... stationary boundary ... step two, stationary boundary starts to kink, with warm frontogenesis on the east side, and cold on the west... step three, cyclone takes on a more commonly known structure, with a warm arc on the right, and cold sector on the left, with concomitant warm front and cold front demarcating... step four, maturation, and the cyclone enters the occluded phase. Cyclones don't always go exactly by that sequence of events but that is the gist of the NCM

Yep! ...it was... ( don't get these charts as quickly as y'all ) But, that synoptic evolution for week's end/weekend is definitely in flux. Bizarre looking low pressures that are highly inverted in nature ...with warmth and rain wrapping west over top, and cold and snow and CCB around the southern arc of the vortex .. I have never seen work out that way when modeled at this range. Invariably, when you see that ... you are seeing a situation that is in the process of modulating. 1888 had that look for a while in the reanalysis ... but even there it collapsed dynamically, and Boston finally ended up with a foot. By and large, lows don't go through the Norwegian sequencing maintaining that sturcture... It's more likely that the models will come around to instantiating the necessary pressures/sectors in future runs and I wouldn't be shocked if the N side ends up more blue-bomby isothermal.

yeah I agree ... this is not really a lesson we should collectively even need reviewing at this point...

Bingo! You partially answered your previous question - You asked why in the context of 'what would it gain' ? ...Well, denying man's contribution thus allows man's various constituencies to keep doing what whatever it is they want. In most case, which is to make money - that's why, but in second place behind that... not having to change their way of life. The only reason why the denial, "dirty money" payout phenomenon/ mechanism works is because climate change is a transcendental (for lack of better word...) specter. One stands on a railroad track ... They hear the iron begin to whir under their feet. They see the smoke rising around the bend, ...Those are tangible indications of a threat to their well being. Moving off the track ensues with a judicious and pragmatically fast response. Global warming? No one can sees the train ... Oh, they read about heat waves and desiccated land, warming oceans... but the actual world around them bears no immediate impression of their being a problem. Humanity doesn't see reality through the same lens as scientist. Humanity doesn't see nature and reality through the same lens as even enthusiast who chose to research on their own ... and are reasonably better versed in this crap. The total bastion of those in the know ... does not compare on the same scale as the enormous mass of people that don't know. And with all that potential ballast ... all one has to say to garner momentum in their favor, is any thing that 'sounds' intelligent that not only counter-acts the moral necessity to act ... but allows said ballast to continue in their present way of life, and so... dimming(adding) to empirical data actually can motivate a desired response.. I have a circle of friends in the Harvard and MIT communities ...in the tenured professorship rank and file of higher academia ...and they all concur: the issue with GW and anthropogenic causality is a sociological one more so than anything else. There needs to be some way to make the threat tangible to the corporeal senses ... because from Mt Vesuvius to Katrina and all scales in between, threats don't mean much to common people and their heads of state.

Well... okay... then it's still not a loss and some saving is happening (haha) seriously though...if we front end 4-8" across the area...then transition to PL/ZR...that snow isn't going anywhere. But I know what you mean.