Typhoon Tip

We're verifying the hydro concerns as planned ... just a bit higher up the coast than - Man... D.C.'s western beltway and 'burbs got clocked with training water-boarding downpours

changing gears for a moment ... it's likely the Euro's over doing things with the scale of that ginormous out-of-season trough ... and ultimately amount of depth degrees it ends up with the 850 mb ... but, even accounting for that, it's still got a pretty solid radiational cooling to frost look for the seasons first from the Lakes to NE/upper OV regions ... prompting me to check. Just based on this if there are some sparkling car-tops out there D8 or so it would behind schedule for N (?) but as much as a week or more ahead of schedule for southern zones. c/o Cornell Univ

Thing is... BDL... BED, BOS ...they're all putting up WB's of 73 to 77 anyway - ...

The highest ASOS DP I've seen this year... what a pee-soup mess out there - KASH 2.0m Temperature 78.8° F 80.6 at 16:50 66.0 at 10:56 86.0 at 19:56 66.0 at 10:56 2.0m Dew Point 78.8° F 78.8 at 17:40 59.0 at 0:45 78.8 at 17:40 57.2 at 21:25 2.0m Wet bulb temperature 78.8° F 78.8 at 17:40 62.7 at 3:45 78.8 at 17:40 62.7 at 3:45

Okay yeah ...I actually wasn't living in this region of the country until mid way 1984 ... hense, why I qualified that with, "I am not sure though" lol But, by the time the SYZYGY event took place tho, there were several winters of cruel banality - so I think the point of being a focus by virtue of there simply not having been anything going on across an extended period of time, should have some psycho-babble usefulness...maybe. We all know it doesn't take long in this social media sphere for pathos to get going .. requiring doubling up on XANAX and Demerol if a winter so much as waits a single f'n modeling cycle to show a societal halting yard-stick bomb on ISP ...So, going 3 winters of unceremonious boredom amid a back-drop of mid 1980s conservatism's cultural of spirit arresting toe-the-line conformity to offer any other sense of poetic freedom ... (how did society get through that era avoiding a collective group psychological nuclear war suicide bid may be the greatest unsung achievement of Humanity there is...) might have encouraged a "sense" and longing for grandiosity once that early January 1987 (finally!) arrived.

There's been a strange 'emergent' pattern of miss-direction by all atmospheric constituencies for like 18 months. I'm seeing these weird offset coincidences. Earlier this season ... we had two or perhaps three trough incursions into the 80 W .. almost as vestigial 'shear axis,' but still strong enough to impose a S-N steering flow along the EC and/or astride the coast from Florida all the way to Maine. And during all of those, a paltry TC or it's remnants (being overly designated out of PR/warning system protocols ) were sucked up into that flow. That sort of 'implied' a seasonal precedence for getting the job done? As for any MDR Verdi express, and seasonal trend thus supporting, lets capture one and course work it into that favorable repetition. Nope ... Winters have been doing miss-directions for a different reality of reasons .. but it's happening everywhere in space and time, where ominous signals portend an eerie future where nothing ultimately happens. Interesting...

Another valid point of snark ... Despite my own recent hints at interest if not exuberance for Paulette and or Rene... presently? These two are 'sputtering' ... it's like the last week was an attempt to fool people into paying attention while sneakily still sputtering - haha

As an aside ... just a snark observation. This last week of modeling and still, is quintessentially perfect for NOT impacting the eastern seaboard from any MDR source as can possibly be constructed by whatever director ultimately runs the tropical show every year. LOL. Steering fields show weaknesses everywhere, such that objects cannot maintain un-perturbed westerly tracks - necessary to succeed the breadth of the Basin being impetus ... Meanwhile, there is an ongoing .. usually long R-wave structures for this time of the year stretching from the eastern Pacific to England around this side of the NH ... which is code for tendencies for enhanced W-E mid and upper level tropospheric balanced winds. Any TC that even senses that physical capture almost immediately .. violently careens a recurvature behavior NE-E in the models. See-ya! Could be the most active three weeks of irrelevancy ever observed - thanks for donated a month of your life for nothing. Maybe one of these 'homegrown' features can find least excuse imaginable to impose what you want in your backyard, somewhere else too

Sufficed it is to say, the Atlantic Basin is in a volatile state. Out along the MDR there are multiple individual TC or 'zygote' features that we are collectively already privy. The one coming off Africa, like its immediate predecessor, appears somewhat anomalously large. It may also be situated probability-wise better for evading a polarward track bias ( and 'track' is likely, as this thing's about as definite as any for developing), given to its starting lat/lon being so south. Of the main global models there are .. they all have different handling for this thing for the time being however. Closer to Americas there are now three discrete areas of interesting/Invest ... ? Interesting. This entire region sets over-drafted by a modest/light shear troposphere and obviously, there's plenty of oceanic heat content footing. You know ... things can change in a hurry. "Bob," back in 1991 might be the fastest zygote to designation --> credible threat profiled evolution I can recall.. Were there any faster? I think it went from, "uh, hey guys, take a look at this book-end feature" status clear to Cat 3 in 36 hours or something.. Then there is the eastern GOM this morning and out of nowhere there is cyclonic trend in early satellite/long rad from KTBW. This feature might be interesting to spy if anyone can probe through a longer recording .. like a detective asking to "see the tapes" of the parking lot outside the store where the crime took place. I am not so sure of its spontaneity and/or whether it was identifiable/traceable back to perhaps a designated invest/defunct irrelevant feature. Sometimes these things come in and out of favor for development ..only to haunt later on once there is certainly been established, 0 attention or even memory of them... Spontaneity happens too. I've seen the region over the western Gulf just start turning for no reason (seemingly..). Anyway, the one nearly stationary over the outer Bahamas is actually traceable back to a TUTT that rotted its way W over the last three days or so... at least per my own recollection. It's rare for TUTTs to drill their way down to the surface an acquire characteristics because they have to overcome the depth of the atmosphere... plus their own thermodynamic engines have to convert from cold to warm cores; which takes the known age of the visible cosmos to do... Sometimes they do though if given a long enough. Usually, the areal circumvallate sort of loses momentum while the core increasingly teems with bubbling CB activity ..and then transitions from the inside out... This one seems close..

With the next two waves coming off Africa lower in latitude might make the difference in evading an unusually meridional flow structure out there in the Atlantic. I thought Paulette was going to correct to the left frankly and it just does not seem like that’s destined to happen… It was not without precedent we’ve been doing it all season it’s just not gonna happen this time with that one. The hell knows what’s going to happen to Renee… It looks like the models can’t resist some kind of binary interaction with Paulette and it’s screwing up their track guidance with Renee because there’s all kinds of weird solution spraying all over the basin with that thing

Shot gun

Uh.. ye- perhaps .. I guess? I was being particular to SNE. I lived here in the 1980s and my butt is still sore and am still in counseling - There was a one event in January of 1986 or 1987 ... actually there were a couple spanning the 1985 to 1990 time span that did this, where eastern Massachusetts and abutting SE NH were all placed securely and snuggly inside Blizzard watch, 4th period... with NWS tickers running across the bottom of screen speaking of power outages and damaging winds in white out snow... The gaiety and good moods this inspired would have made heroine envious - ... nothing One of them was not only partly sunny come go time, but boy lemme tell you, the -9 F cryo- wind prior to this modern culture of canceling everything under the sun over flurries ... really made it! Blistering-blackening faces when walking in mocking quiescence that was supposed to be a week off from school with n-guard snow throwers coming down streets ... Never forgave Walter for that - lol. Something kept happening ... it may have been the state of the art of modeling in that era, but D4 to 7 always had storms too far NW coming off the mid Atlantic.. I can think of a few plausible reasons for why... Be it too much ridging in the western Atlantic. Overly proficiently phasing streams... etc... all these can cause storms to error too far NW. Either way there was a string of busts that were peculiarly similar .. amid the other storm types... Not all storms failed in that era. There was one positive bust that was pretty special. ...early February in '86 I think. We had a forecast for 1-3" of glop/cold light rain going to drizzle. About 1pm it was 19 F with tiny uniform aggregates polluting the air down to 1/4 vis and I looked at my math teacher, who knew I was a weather dweeb, and she arched her eyebrows slightly and said, " I don't think that's turning to rain.." About 6"'s later and choking down at a 1/32 of a mi clip ...amid blue flash swashes leading chest echoing thunder claps, they closed the slopes on Nashoba Valley because of the lightning threat ... I was in the parking lot watching ... actually, 'listening' for my ride to show up, as IP started mixing in... It never really changed to sleet... it sort got half way and visibility came up to 1/2 mi, but it would collapse back to snow and be down to 1/4 mi again... It finally ended as freezing drizzle over a fresh foot of snow around 8pm that night. My old man's commute home from work was 6 hours to get from Arlington Heights to Acton out along Rt 2... It's normally about 22 minutes. I had not seen a bust that prolific for snow since an obscure event in western Michigan not worth mentioning... and didn't see another positive bust so extreme until 1997 ..10 years later. On December 23rd, came the snow-bomb storm. Man... similar situation from a lay-consumer of forecasting though. 1-3" of wet snow and cold light rain... Didn't get the thunderstorm but, we got 7" of snow in back to back hours, book ended by 2-4" per hour snow rates... and in 5 or 6 hours, put down 18" in Acton...and something like 26" up here in Pepperil Mass... Ah...man... may never see that kind of reach around savior again...

yeah...I suppose .. It's hard to find very many write ups about that one without digging thru back-paged web searches .. more so than I care to do. But at the time, it was considered a pretty big deal. It was called "The SYZYGY STORM" storm storm It may just be relative to era; as we've lamented about the 1980s in yore ... thus having a 12-18" snow lopped over a CF fist leading an arm of 55 to 60 mph, cold conveyor gusting in from NE during that particular pathos? It would by acclimation be huge. In fact, it may have been the biggest interior-east event in SNE since 1978 considering those dearth years. I'm not sure though...I think there was a freak early April blizzard back in 1982 ... '84? god, me and dates: can't remember 'em; can't get 'em Anyway, it was also before the climate started changing and we began handing out 12+" snow events like Pez candies. You know I think we've even endured posts over the last 8 years where someone got 15" amidst a 20" pancake event and called the thing a bust? ... It's like wow - how quickly folks get entitled. Lol - This may sound hypocritical to that but ...I think this "up era" that we've been enjoying is different than it's predecessors though. We are definitively and incontrovertibly involved in a climate change that has been both predicted by modeling, and empirically shown, to be hosting increased PWAT - and having exaggerated snow results relative to storm frequency and intensity ( that italic is the whole thing! ) is being missed by many as a separate distinguishing ordeal. In other words, a dearth winter era in this climate may have more precipitation by virtue of the warming atmosphere and increased PWAT going forward ... interesting.

I don't think so... it wouldn't - here is the problem... If it did, there would be a real apocalypse - not just an entertainment that frankly has become immoral as we sit from afar and watch these carnages play out. Whether you realize this or not, for having formulated that particular sentiment/reply .. , the truth is, one assumes protection as being permanent and infallible. If they truly felt or connected mortal fear of the forces of nature ... one would not 'gloat' and relish in such engagements. But, no... unplug this grid, and send a true Ebola pandemic through the population, all concurrent with a Yellowstone eruption... and what-the-hell-else can be thrown in.. how about continental displacement theory ... and when you are staring at the finality of your existence with 20 seconds before assurety - trying saying that...? Truth is, we are addled by convenience across generations and operate within a faux assumption of security that is entirely profligately provided ( btw ..hense GW because of mankind activities... etc etc...), this has become a complacent disrespect of our fragility - one that has been enabled by that same technological bubble said profligate entitlement provides. Yuck. Moreover, ( supposition) since the day's activities are no longer distracted from real virtuosity in survival achievement, spanning too many generations .. we've lost the physicality to remind anyone or group think of the real forms of earth-connect provisional challenges. Interesting...without those challenges, people are actually kind of instinctually turning to find reasons to fill that survival fear void, and they are using the psychotropic society to fulfill it - with fake news it's creepy ...it's soulless vapidity operating purely by manipulation... I don't know ...getting too deep into a principle, ethic and virtue topic for this venue.

There's not much monotonous about this .. There are four active sites on the weather map - I just mused this phenomenon ... it's getting out of control. Almost not in a ha-ha way, too, how people seem to have been conditioned to expect this unrealistically ratched up level of scary drama ... Guys/girls... hey, cinema in nature does not happen at the speed of human imagination or ingenuity - The fact that these have sort of exceeded the expediency of the former, does hearken in my mind to the homage of Humanity's conceits and achievements , specifically as a singular event, as being the real and most dramatic anomaly about this planet.

Mm hm yup.. I was musing this morning ..with climo change, we shoulda coulda sorta maybe be pushing the "september remember, october all-over" heritage yore into something more like "start remembering in september and probably Sandy-f! the hell oughtta the eastern seaboard with increasingly chances due to thermal surplus along seasonal budgeting lagging deeper and deeper into autumns" Doesn't really rhyme nearly as appealingly so .. no, but lagging the cane season isn't exactly a terrible intuitive fit considering. As an afterthought - that does open the interesting prospect ( conceptually ...) for more cold trough interaction chances. Any opportunistic cyclones that venture close to those steering field gravity wells ... heh. Sandy did in fact rapid transition into a cold core as an example ..loosely so, of one of these. Most of big media press coverage focused on the specter of surf, tide and wind impacts... but few may recall, she tossed PWAT over a cold incursion taking place along the western cordillera... and huge snow within 24 hours erupted in the else of WV.. And in fact, one wouldn't be wrong to suggest thermodynamically this occurred while the core was still hot - People are funny ... if there isn't a Cat 4 with a Satan's eye peering up the EC at all times their hands demo maturity and patience by violently typing posts about how the season's over.. ha! But, as drama - junkies that all people born since .. oh, 1955 are ..which is 70%+ of the techno-bathed neon zapped souls of modern population, it really does act like a psychotropic drug addiction and there's no tolerance for having to wait for the next high. Oh the pain of rehab... I guess it's better to tune in for histrionic surge on a weather forum rather than circuiting that fix through Fentenyl

No ...they are not -

Hahaha lol

HMON ... what is that... I guess I could google it - but that model's markedly trended two ways: -- imposes less shear on Paulette such that the cyclone maintains integrity as it penetrates any trough axis - either weaker trough or just less shear in general -- corrects the ending position markedly to the left by some 800 naut mi.. based on what we've been discussing, can't say that's shocking. GGEM did this too.. curious where the Euro is -

almost think so anyway.. 88/67 here and windows open and not a lot of breeze out there to offer ventilation - .. meanwhile it 'sounds' hot out there with those cutting insects ... what? are those cicadas. Almost still with HI of 94. Deep summer. glad the back's broke... but, I guess I'd have to nod that way when theren's snow somewhere on the map. Or perhaps it's just another absurdity you get amid the cuttingly incisive base-line

It also depends on what one is motivated to 'impress' by, too - I mean if the current frenzy proves faux in terms development, we'll eval why... but, my resent opines were not based upon what we are seeing now. It was 'unimpressed' based upon what had happened "to date" - what's going on now doesn't compare. Having three entities concurrently, with modeled bombs either using them or generating new ( and there's yet another impressive zygote wave over Africa about to get injected into contention ) raises the bar legit for me.

there's not argument ... only reality and morons

Heh... it depends on how much 'memory' the immensely diverse pieces of the total climate puzzle are operating with ... Any moderate anomaly, warm or cool ...could easily be smothered under the last 20 to arguable 40 years of hockey-stick climate change. We can't sustain the latter and expect comparatively minute changes in ENSO to mean as much ... maybe? But it doesn't seem to fit basic assumptions about momentum and so forth. If so, it's probably not so much the modulating influence of ENSO, but the total systemic change may be driving the ENSO change and concurrent - by virtue of the same driving/governance - would there also represent some form of atmospheric change. Personally I think the ENSO is meaningless ... as it is burried snugly inside a Hadely Cell that has expanded in the last 20 years ... beyond the reach where the ENSO band ( only 15 latitu N/S of the eq) can really physically interact with the westerlies ..thus impose a physical forcing - ...but we'll see. I bet if we get a bona fide NINA like circulation eddy it would be coincidence more so - but almost impossible to separate in the knee jerk assumption tsunamis -

that's crazy! wow... ~ 500 miles orthogonally SW of the best ( subjective ...) interpretation of where Rene's present circulation center is located, we see cloud motions in cyclonic arc moving at some 30 to 40 kts at CU depth toward the E ... this thing is huge.

Man... hard to resist! The sci fi author in me wants to take "Rene" to the winds of zyberon when eyes lay upon that high res, mid day visible loop imagery - c/o Tropical Tidbits: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=18L&product=vis ... At mid latitudes (by convention of geometry being precisely along the 45th parallel as it were...) 1 deg of lat or lon ~ 69 nautical miles. So, applying that across the spread of this URL's layout directly implies there are over 750 nautical miles in every direction, diametrically involved in Rene's circulation circumvallate. That is a truly massive amount of momentum - ....how ironic! Because we are debating the ACE versus 'seasonal complexion' issue as of late in here, and this system seems to mock that debate - lol. That's gotta be putting up some decent ACE ( individual aggregate ) values just by virtue of so much mass, despite a speckled, pallid convection display. I mean look at that - the entire frame in every direction is captured in the fledgling TC's pressure well - that's a very large system. Large systems take a while to gain strength for a host of geo-physical popsicle headache reasons ...but just assuming that is true: once they get that momentum - gee, the sci fi author in anyone is tempted to wonder if that means they also are more resistant to hostility and both become more resistant to weakening but the speed in doing so. I mean, if these extension(ed) outer bands convect and rain out deposition dust and/or mix dry air attempting to intrude into the inner core, they may sort of act like a rampart and protect - I don't know if that's true. I haven't read any papers the specifically show that to be the case for large systems...but it seems intuitively plausible that big systems made be able to moat off the outside hostility of dry air ( possible shear) by virtue of their size. fascinating -