Typhoon Tip

Delta's seems to have followed the floor plan of this tropical season for failing exulted states based upon every indicator suggesting it should -... Finally, for the first time in the past 5 days of this this thing ...we seem to have emerged a definitive eye. Even when this cyclone was 140 mph ... I'm sure it had an eye but you could not see it... And I mean it was not like there was an "impression" of an eye if perhaps merely obscured by clouds ...it looked like there was no 'dent' nothing... just a CDO with weird cold nodules that seemed to bifurcate where an eye would be.. As an aside, it seems there's probably some sort of at least indirect correlation between presentation and health - heh... who knows -.. Anyway, it weakened without an IWR ...just for no reason, prior to making landfall on the Yuk. Okay ...it's not like we want to kite civility along down there. But, it moves back out over 312 F water and 0 shear... 100 mph - ... wow, look out! Something is "in the air" ( ha!) mitigating this seasons... Historic numbers held back is what is really gone. Interesting... Oh, I'm sure this going to be a category 9 sonic speed orbit influencer now that I've insolently questioned the motivations of the gods ... but, the damage of seasonal profile is already in the museum in my mind and this has been a weird year. I wonder if some of this is 'detection sensitivity' - ...but it's hard to mention that without suggesting intent was in play - I really don't mean that. But the network of tech and human observation was simply not as sophisticate in the past ... By virtue of that, some of this could be influenced by those latter advantages. I just a suggestion -

Course ...it's not really as chilly here is I thought it might be ... I thought this had more of a nicking 48 for a nano second at 2:14 pm sort of look to it but it's actually in the mid 50s .. and some d-sloping may also be contributing. Probably nicking 60 instead. Still, we have a garland or two of blue thickness draping through the region ! Woo hoo... progress.

Classic October 48 to 60 hours here... Reminds me of the 1990s Octobers. Big turn around in sensible weather over short duration. This cold air mass rolls right out of here post its nadir over the next 18 hours, and Saturday afternoon's 850 layer would support 80+ F if it were summer. But, it's October and the sloped sun will starve it of its potential some. Still, the 12z NAM has 13 to 15 C at 850 mb in a WSW-SW well mixed flow throughout SNE by 18z on that day... which is probably really 25 C in the 2-meter over the typical warm locales. Probably good for 69 at ORH and 75 as ASH/BED and Rt 9

Not that you or anyone else in particular is doing the following ... this doesn't save winter, either - ... I sense a tendency to rely on stuff as a denial enabler LOL Seriously these offsets are more like "somewhat reliable" ? A warm H5 anomaly .. will tend to promote a warm 2-meter result in the longer term when circuitously getting through all geophysical processes that connect those two metrics. It's just that for us here in New England, we tend to "tuck" and curl the flow at all scales, both synoptically and beta-meso scales. At the continental scale ...the whole of the westerlies flow coming off the Pacific tends to rise in latitude due to the oceanic laminar flow encroaching/sensing the inhibition downstream of the western topography of the continent. As the air 'piles up' the Coriolis force then curl it into a anticyclonic orientation.. which is why the rest state PNAP is always a modest ridge in the west..with a flattening out/subtle trough impression working east from the Rockies ... Since the natural R-wave/long-wave distribution of the planet also nodes a trough in the Maritimes of SE/E Canada, that means that confluence over southern and southeastern areas of Canada tends to occur given time and space... So, that's tucking the atmosphere back SW as a - for lack of better words - "potential vector" always in place. Here is an idealized example from a recent Euro run ...showing this this tucking behavior ... at synoptic scales: In this case...the 850 mb temperature is used to infer a current of cold air is being curled around by the synoptic/Coriolis forcing at large scales, ...and at this time there is also a confluence born high pressure up over the lower Maritimes... Note the warm air ends up on the N side of the anticyclonic eddy by as much as 6 to 8 C between the core of the cold channel of air and the warm 'seclusion' over NF/NS ... This is why those late May heat waves in NW New England were not experienced in the Mid Atlantic, because of this sort of large scale curl/tuck at synoptic scales, ... WHICH ... I have noticed has become a more discerned phenomenon in modeling, and in verification since this HC expansion shit and the quickening of the ambient westerlies velocity et al become prevalent over the last 10 years. But I'm digressing as usual ... I'm just saying, that we have sort of a built in "talent" for our spatial-circumstantial orientation wrt to the rest of geophysical aspect of the continent .. where these kind of aspects ( and there's a smeared spectrum of others that are cousin to this... BD's are related for example... 'Burrier jets' and ice storms always forecast to end sooner than they due because no one ever guesses this right...etc... ), and... the emerging statistical result of 2-meter temperatures tending to be cooler than the H5 modes at times. That said, I don't like personally relying on that ... If the orange and red anomalies are there... tends to quack like a duck and you end up with warm geese in the area. For me I just keep it in mind as a kind of on-going corrective maintenance, that we may have lower thickness wedging and/or soundings that "cheat" the hypsometric look due to the exaggerated curl causing the lower troposphere to gain some additional N momentum/mixing of thermal regulation from time to time that robs real heights from expanding thickness within. You know ...as an afterthought ... this fits why NASA's state of the climate publications dating back some 20 years, have 60 to 70% of the color graphic layout depictions with a cooler region painted over eastern N/A or near enough by that despite our warmer than normal ... we taint our contribution.

I dunno but was there a watch issued?

Macroburst that’s what that was

Yes sir Thing is, contrasting the GFS has a polar side low height anomaly it maintains.. which it atones for ( I think ..) by speeding up the flow everywhere more so than reality - which buries it's error in a way because it's already fast/gradient rich. That then causes it to be too W-E biased... It makes it difficult to parse our because the flow has been +AO like with steeper heights N and speedy flow overall as a persistency over recent years, and that's sort of masking the amount of bias the GFS is maintaining ... interesting -

Yeah ... but I have noticed my self a growing "gap" tendency in the dailies between the thickness and hypsometry of the atmosphere. Primer: take the Hypsometric Equation, integrate it for PV=NRT ... = thickness... The only thing that really changes is the WV ... Hypsometric height is the room the heights expand when the moisture is removed. ... This is counter-intuitive to some degree ( pun intended...) because folks have heard that WV is an efficient greenhouse gas - but what is happening is, the column of wet warm air cools off slower than the column of dry air at the same height - ...such that the wet column nets/accumulates heat when exposed to less insolation ( sun ). Anyway, I have noticed that particularly over North America above ... 37 or so N latitude (~) ... The heights are there, but the atmosphere is dodging heating up ...maybe cloud albedo ...smoke... industrial farts, who knows. But, the hypsometric heights are getting taller, but the lower troposphere isn't getting thermally charged and the increased moisture input is holding the thickness down - insidiously, too... because we have been 'above normal' ... What this does is, hides how warm 'it could have been' ...by shirking the extent of it. fascinating really -

Not sure how well known this is ... but, "Prince" was just a fantastic guitar player - if not virtuoso actually. He did a solo in the song, "While My Guitar Gently Weeps" during .... 2004's Rock 'N' Roll Hall Of Fame' induction ceremony show that was mesmerizing. Fact of the matter is, there's probably a ceiling where a lot of these talents of the craft reach ...where beyond it really isn't very relevant because that realm is perhaps beyond the detection/perception of the common human ear and experience. We are not worthy to sit with that particular panel of judges. Hendrix was done right lewd ... .and, it's risky to cross-up genres anyway, because the comparisons cannot really be resolved - it's like asking what's a prettier color: red or blue. But Chuck Berry? ...he ripped solos so hot the Devil ducked out the backdoor... he was ludicrous as a Rocka-Billy tactiction.. And there's a whole pantheon of Blues gifts from god that walked amongst us disguised as mere mortals ...who when they played, heaven wept. I dunno... there's no EVH is better than "X" or "Z" at a certain point ....it's just honoring something extraordinary for having blessed our company ...all too brief was their stay, and made the world that much more bearable for their harmony.

Wait ... there were three years bbb in the early 1950s? ...the suicide stretch my god But on point that makes me wonder about the ambient PWAT/WV accessibility in the GW models - interesting. But I don’t know if it accounts for all that because that seems like a disproportionately large response by that one metric when GE its self is decimaling its way up ... could be luck playing in... also - note the 1980’s ambrosia of couplets

Well ... I dunno it seems to me pulling back to back subpar snow seasons at 1000’ is in of its self perhaps harder to do than the SE coastal plain. In terms of implication - I can see 1998-‘99 as that was that super ENSO back whence they mattered -lol

Yeah the transport/PWAT aspect up to the lover OV/ to upper MA/NE regions was hinted several days ago but has been flip-flopping a bit with some runs trying to flatten the flow ...but I think the westerly position has merit... May not correct deficits but will dent if so -

Still see a decent chance of a PWAT plume entering the westerlies near enough our circuitry to clip New England if not more directly from Delta ... At the time I thought Gamma but ..it doesn't really matter as both entities were in hot prospect of being captured by the larger synoptic grab and smear pattern... The question is, what form does that take. Some guidance even hold onto vestigial ...though conversion physics, others are wane it out but then develop a separate baroclinic wavy on the wave boundary that feeds off the latent heat plume...and gets us that way... Then of course the GFS tries to shunt it all S under a high pressure it is too aggressive and full of shit to begin with because it has too much mid and upper air tropospheric wind speeds everywhere, all the time, as an irritating model bias that causes confluences to get out of control mass and produces too much surface high pressures...

Delta appears destined to 5 status ... Looking at the typical environmental factors, this system has 0 inhibition for strengthening - that only leaves internal fluctuations that are not predictable with any reliancy such IR sequencing and so forth. My experience with that is that the TCs destined for unimpeded realization ... typically spike to their apex along the gestation intensity in that first 18 to 24 hours through that initial RI (rapid intensity..). After which replacement and expanding wind fields and other mechanics start lowering winds due to spreading the atmospheric response to the internal/core pressure implosion. Right now... the core is simply coring out faster than the surrounding PGF can respond due to curvature physics impeding mass transport ... so it's probably going to be 920 mb here by overnight... at 160 mph ( I'm guessing) at about the time FOX News contingency's blaming it on gay marriage - Heh...anyway, it may not be that strong but it's 130 mph rather abruptly and again, it just appears to be in the midst of an RI curve that has zippo inhibitors for the next 24 hours. I dunno- but that I don't see what's going to stop this thing from really ceiling intensity. Also, I am noticing the the modest shearing that the models were imposing on the circulation out there around ( now) 96 hours,... is all but gone or reducing. In fact, many global models are significantly expanding the pressure field/dimension of the circumvallate of the cyclone as it is in the midriff Gulf open seas... approaching 120 hours.. That's bit alarming for obvious reasons.. and who knows what kind of particulars with structure it will harbor. Lyme bite ringed eye-walls tunneling along 135 mph wind drills, each separated by intervening zephyrs of only 78 mph to offer exhalation as the coast is clear if one is lucky enough to be there instead -

well than bravo -

The stronger/ing HC might also sustain stronger easterly trade wind - supposition. That could "mimic" - for lack of better word - the La Nina state, however... So, we end up with stronger easterly trade... causing cooling... but that is still inside the HC ...and then the hemisphere above latitudes doesn't behavior very La Nina and again... heads getting scratched in early February when there's an El Nino California wind bomb going off lol ... just sayn'

That's a terrible look.... All the balancing is already stored in that usually deep vortex with huge saturated rampart of heights and violent wind so that's not doing anything - you want softer 'hypsometric' gradient, with steeper 'thickness gradient' underneath... It's complex -

Mmm I'm not sure to which conversation you refer to when/where I "refuted" - but fwiw, I have been very clear in hard text .. if not implicitly, that 'these are not absolute' ; it's about offsetting mitigators. ENSO is not 0 influencing ... duh.. The idea is as it should be, that it is not AS influencing when smothered inside an expanded HC - ...I even said, the 'art is how much so' at one point or the other. I just don't like the ready-reliance on ENSO as it doesn't fit with my personal perspective from education, a-priori as well as purely observational reasons. Off the record, in my own little fantasy world I'm actually put off by the ENSO failures as of the last decade to the point where I'm hostile and want to throw my hands and say it's all BS but out of respect for my fellow minds and that my indignation isn't so righteous ... I figure I could be wrong in absolution- haha Caveat emptor I suppose. But, warm(cool) ENSOs have not manifested the impacts they typically due around the Globe's known climate routes, ...over the last 10 to 15 years, as notably as they did prior to the coincident onset of the HC expansion - which to reiterate, is not me alone averring that circumstantial emergence. I have cited links and climate reports and papers oh my! I understand that these are large - in geological time concerns ... -- nearly instantaneous changes, but that unfortunately requires a proportional ability to be mutable and adapt if one is in the business of using "environmental signaling" to prognosticate. But I also admit there is a bit of smoldering commentary along the way that the Earth is in deep f'n trouble ... but it is what it is.

Here's an easy prediction: Trump’s out of this thing in 4.38 days from right now… a time in which he experiences nothing further of consequence … --> Rage against the Liberal conspiracy-Pandemia

Yeah... "I've" now got that required of me - lol

I don't really have a problem with this in the DJF ... particularly the latter two months of that range. I think as the 'base-line' eddy gets established in the winter hemisphere, it will probably be at more times than not ...seemingly unrelentingly in compressed look that emerges by virtue of the polar winter heights reaching a nadir between Jan 15 and Feb 10 or so... In that time range, we may have seasonal heights over the area, but because the compression is there, the winds are hauling seriously ablading cold incursions and or limiting their impact on regions to briefer times ... There is a way out of this though... 2015 February - Firstly, those seasonal products by the Euro are not that good - just keeping that in mind. Secondly, should the N-stream just become so overwhelming, we could end up in one of the -20 C 850 at all time air masses...with powdering coastals faking huge seasonal snow totals.. If there is anywhere in N/A where that would likely to occur, it is in the eastern Lakes-OV-NE band, where the PNAP favors a persistently anchored trough. It does pull me to wonder at times if we can't sustain winter without that extreme - perhaps as an insidious "already" climate threshold cross that we're less collectively aware... The HC is being documented and observed, in the private sector and in scholar and scientific formal arenas alike - and given the root causality...climate change ... theoretically that does not lend one to think it is going anywhere, either. So that scaffolds the vision of the futre around that flow being consummately impeded from the S by heights that are not receding - and we're only talking about about 6 dm ... But that's all we need in the integral from 30 N to 70 N to trigger the velocity surplus...which by wave mechanics than starts jostling the R-wave orientations, as well, creates interesting indivudal temporal-spatial scaled event morphologies. Like 938 mb extratropical lows moving passed a region that thinks a Pratt&Whittney proving ground was exhausting through their region with a 6 hour 100 mph sideways show .... ( hyperbole but it was SOMEthing ludicrous!) ... weird shit. Anyway, non-sustaining cold before warm reloads to 45 N isn't a bad base-line in a ballooning HC... That all said, prior to the onset of that circumstance...these book end months ... mid Octo to Dec 1 and ...then again through April 15 ...perhaps May 1, etc... those times the compression eases and continent passes back through a tendency period for -EPOs .... It's sort of causing a recurrent 'split' in winter - It's not all the time and or absolute, either... Just "tendency" - so... Even though that seasonal product probably verifies well by dumb luck ...I could kind of see/tell/almost predict where that luck comes from.

Same here... it happened right under my nose, too - It was April ...I wanna say 2016, and as typical at that time of year, the region was going through its right of passage climo window for spring detritus fire threat. Three weeks past mud-season .. two weeks before the thrust of green-up. The day was mid 70s over about /10 or some richly deep theta-e content desert like that ... And there I am using one of those backyard ornamental fire pans you get at a parking lot display at a Home Depot to feed the flames with pieces of felt dead timber. The funny part is that I used some lighter fluid to get it going too... I turn around - uh... oh shit moment! I mean, it's a sinuously winding arc of orange, propagating away at a noticeable speed. I have no idea how that started behind my heels like that... Burnout's no option ...nor, what am I going to tamp it out with dried out dead pine bows? - and seeing as I was tOtally responsible in prepping the setting for fire safety before I started... Then there's that small problem of the neighbor's dilapidated, seasonally dried out stock fencing with holes in it... making visible their yellow-beige straw lawn and dead leaf mixture on the other side... So I'm in the house eviscerating the contents of the closet that caps the crawl space, ... banging and chucking vacuum clean parts and cleaners and half-emptied brick dried paint cans... Estimating? I'd 180/110 BP at a 110 pulse rate ... this, trying to access the outside water valve, to turn on the source for the hose, ...that's still coiled up buried in the back of the shed outside while I am doing that, ...with all of last year's tools and lawn implement burriering between the opening of the shed and said hose.. I don't know how in the face of all those obstacles... But, I probably more literally than merely figuratively managed to just get the hose connected and the water on, spraying the - by then - arc of fire that had consumed almost 2/3rds of my dead backyard lawn and contents ...all the way down to black char, terminating it in a steam flash a mere inches from the fencing... I think when the adrenaline wore off I slept for 3 hours on the couch. If I had called the fire department it's like 1500 base-line charge/fine in this town, prior to any accoutrements they get to tack circumstantially on the bill too - I did this in my 40s age ... a Meteorologist ... in mid April ... in 77 F early season warmth, two weeks before green up, in a global warming spring - It's humility like these that ease the coming of acceptance of me, on display in the museum, a shimmering gallery mediocrity in life - and thankful for this much recognition. Christ. What's interesting is that... where ever the fire swept across the lawn ..grew the most delicious emerald green salad of grass I'd ever seen - heh...I was thinking - you know? if one could just figure this out... a spring controlled burn is the best way to set your lawn up for prize entry - ...nah, better not.

Best time of the year and antecedent circumstances huh

18z ... GFS finally admits Gamma exists - indeed the PWAT transport’s in there. also ... nice Sultan look in the deep field

There’s a chance Gamma sends a pwat plume up the EC or thereabouts -stay tuned on that.