Typhoon Tip

Yeah....I was being half serious ... sort of wantonly tongue and cheek cynical, too - I love sordid humor. It's among my favorite forms of muse - and gets me into trouble around here, too When I said I wondered whether other regions around the country rejoice in it? Mm that was obviously sarcasm ... But, I guess now that we thinking about it, the Lakes out through the northern plains/Missouri Valley ... all these regions have local standards that vary ... They have to. Demographics are not ubiquitous. The "culture" of how each region handles matters is rooted in that, and different climate... it's a lot to consider. Plus, you just have a lower asshole quotient outside of New England ... ha. Anyway, obviously you and I know 4" in DC doesn't mean the same thing as 4" in Vermont.

I'm telling you ... this thing may put down CGs here and there....

I understand the apprehension ... for speed of system translation and so forth ...? However, I can remember many (actually) times when I've cleared a foot at my location from exceptionally heavy fall rates... on the order of 3 or 4"/hr for just 4 hours... 1987 1997 2005 a couple pops in 2015 and I think there was one, two winters ago, but I'm currently groggy with turkey sammich lunch and need a coffee... the point is, it can snow prodigiously in short order given sufficient mechanical forcing and given to the list above and probably I'm missing a few, it's now as rare as we think to get "thunderstorm in snow fall rares" type stuff to happen. It just obviously not as common. I'm just keeping that in mind when I'm tempted to sell on fast accumulation ideas -

I think we can admit to collectively wondering if that was going to happen... I tried to bring this up earlier in the day, how the NAM was oddly paltry looking integrated through the NW arc of the low. You know... it almost looked like someone went in and cookie-cut lopped off any fledgling CCB at the seam of the IB/waa glob.

It's an old hat conversation topic but yeah... standardization is definitely changed wrt to perception of public safety over the last several decades. It seemed the heftier winters of the mid 1990s really began that trend in culture - and I wonder if it's native to this region of the country, or if all regions that now rejoice in time off at the drop of a sleet pellet. I went to high school back in the 1980s ... and, though we commiserate upon occasion how that tortured decade probably earned its self the apex sore butt award for very worst for winter enthusiast (argumentative of course....) there were times when we did awken to say ... a half foot at 4 am. I recall walking to school in tire cake ruts in the roads of Acton, because few streets had sidewalks, and the ones that did were not getting plowed until sometimes days later. Very rarely did we ever get a day like that off from school. Now? heh... wow... forecasts for winter storms that have higher bust potential are scrollin' tickers for canilations like there must be an air-raid circa 1943 going on... 12 hours before hand, while cirrus has yet to even obscure the stars. I began to notice with my nieces and nephews that were raised in the area, ...oh, circa 2004 to 2010, that lesser and lesser criteria of weather inclemency was needed for delays and time off. I have one niece still in high school, and two years ago they had to attend classes until a week before the 4th of July to make up for all the snow days... I work for the University of Massachusetts circuit of campuses and along side, many colleagues have kids of various age ranges. They're consummately complaining about having to hire special sitters for what is in reality ... really uninspired weather. - I mean, we're talking snow stops at 2am, roads are plowed and just wet, with cling glops falling from the trees, and they gotta work from home because their kids are there. I could see how that would be a pain in the ass... and, we are a culture of litigates. For all our crowning achievements, conceits and arrogances... it seems there is a dual nature behind the time off thing - and it's not just school. My work ops for WFH with pretty pallid reasons, too, sometimes. I think its a collective want that everyone's like "meme" bought into? They act like its a pain, but they want it. And I wonder if the law suit fears is kinda of an excuse to get to sleep in an hour and scratch bum through boxer shorts over home-brew coffee while clicking through morning emails from a cushy couch. For others, ...they need a sitter. But I don't doubt we are in fact litigiously preoccupied, ..perhaps to avoid having to pay for our own mistakes - we abuse the courts.

I was more intrigued by the cooling profile ..but yeah, I guess - wasn't sure whether that was related to amplitude specifics. It seems to me it's "looked" pretty much the same since last Tuesday ... flat wave potency rocketing along.. It's just that it seemed to want to rocket it at CON, NH ...now, E. of Logan. Through that correction east, it seemed to be similar lows.

Quick muse... does anyone else recall 2.5 days ago, the Euro had rain on this thing clear to southern VT/MHT latitudes?

This thing's gonna spike a thunderstorm or two... you have a flat wave with a pig jet max sloped to the 300 mb level where the core axis passes orthogonal overhead, from right exit to left entrance. I mean I've seen stronger maxes at that level but that translation through the axis is spatially perfect if using the GFS ... I can't imagine the other models are hugely different at that level/time and space, either - who knows. But that is all taking place along/on the NW arc of the surface low between 3 and 9Z ... where there is likely to be a zygote CCB tendency as said low is lifting passed, ....inside of which ...all that is going to have a couple of violent focused updraft slots... Don't be shocked (pun intended!) if there's a blind CG in sub 1/4 mi fall rates somewhere, and the RPM may be cluing as to where... Fascinating system -

There's other other meteorology going on that's interesting... Not attempting to taint the experience here, but it's in the low 40s with that spring-nape sun, and the broken strata of the morning is starting to cumulo-form into shallow cap towers - edit, looks like the low 40s are mainly eastern Mass ...but if the sun prevails through 1 or 2 pm there may be more. Very spring like out there already ... interesting. We are still technically in the continental drain mode off the -EPO ... and this.. Anyway, I'm having to correct my own interpretation of this. I wasn't paying attention but I'm wondering if this is blue snow. If not... pretty neat to see the temps tank enough - Unrelated ... I remember this same sort of sky on the Saturday prior to the 1997 April Fools storm. Only that was even more dramatically nearing 60 F! ... This whole thing is managing to behave like a spring correction deal, which I find interesting because that pattern doesn't appear very spring like at a glance.

Heh ... you mean as in, out over the water ? Nice... good for them haha

Best look we've seen all year, too... Looks warm ENSO like... although the gradient's still a bit steep ...still, getting any mean to load the Rockies with ridging is quite the accolade for this season and I bet that look there has a few particular members with fun antics.

Yeah I was mentioning that to Will earlier ... the NAM has had a speed fetish with this thing ... but, as I was discussing in that post, I can argue just the same for that to be right. It's interesting, as the GFS is considerably lagged on the western/NW arcs of the low's impact region and would protract the ending by what looks like 3 to 5 hours. In either case, sun may be shining mid afternoon. This one will have a better defined backside NVA/DVM mechanics

Oh you laugh... but don't kid ourselves - the process of pining for that dystopian cinema of the models, is really about seeking an endorphin sort of 'rush' ... even inspires joy sensations ... and yes! It is a very addictive process.

I'm several pages back but just noticing the 06z NAM and GFS both came back more robust ... Looks like Logan nears .9" melted in this NAM run, and the GFS had repositioning it's Va. Capes position some 100 mile N near off the lower Jersey shores...centered on 06z Monday morning. Which translates to almost a category increase in the QPF layout for areas on the NW arc. Which ...yeah I know how y'all feel about QPF art work and why..just sayn'... One thing that's stood out to me about the NAM's solution going back many cycles actually ... is that it almost looks like it is focusing all of the event on the east and N arcs of the cyclone ...and almost none wraps back on the West side. I can come up with an argument to satisfy that synoptic evolution related to the anomalous speed in the flow tilting the whole structure of the thing and/or shearing stress (some)... But, then I look at the GFS run and how it depicts the termination timing over interior Mass quite delayed comparatively. That looks more theoretically likeable... Not sure... Either seems plausible to me. It matters for whether I trek my way into the office or work from home tomorrow - haha. But that NAM consistency of scouring out all activity on the western (pretty much) half of it's cyclonic envelope is interesting.

Lol

You can really see how these high velocity patterns are very sensitive to subtle perturbations in terms of who gets what/where. Personally I expected a narrower impact but I'm just not sure how massive or less that will be. I wouldnt be shocked if somebody has thunder

People leave Tennessee ... why the hell you movin there

Ha ha... I know .. .like, is this thing ever going to show up already... . But yeah, NCEP's recent publications on the matter, they're indicated that at long last, ... the atmosphere over the Pacific Basin is finally showing signs of coupling with the SST distribution (via convection/OLR distribution and so forth) so,, agreed... there might just be a PNA response here... Wonder if a bigger actual slow mover can Archembault it's way onto the charts over the next week. Don't look now ... ladies and gentlemen, maybe a fun exit to this tortured mess. ... Well, tortured S of Glenn's Falls to PWM - not sure anyone up there has room to really complain.

Yep yep... this one just may be mechanically sufficient to overcome the speed of the back ground flow and general compression/inhibition of larger --> small -scaled wave length interference. Which is what "too fast" really means. It means having a S/W be less able to differentiate against the already high geostrophic wind - no/low differentiation = no/weaker lows... blah blah. But, these f-gen type products are lit up and provided said S/W is sufficient, it just means fast moving high impact as opposed to fast moving dampening ... like today

Things get dicey at the end of these runs ... the foreign ones. The Americans in the D7 to 12 range are interesting as well. What I'm seeing is a relaxed flow like we've pretty much never seen modeled since late October of 2018, yet, plenty of cold air around. Not just hints, either... Like, lose the -20 C and lower mass in Canada and lose the -3 TO -4 SD SPV's and we're in business. Note, winter enthusiasts don't need -20 to -30 C plumes spread out over southern Canada to cash in on winter weather. This winter has beat you over the head with why. That -3 to -12 tapestry we see out there in those time frames, when mixed up with close-able impulses ... that all changes the storm styling/complexions from low QPF powdered snow/tortured light ice and dry sleeters, to more of the blue bomb aggregate types. 'Course that's getting the storms to happen.. but, we're setting the craps table here with our fire-bets. I'm liking the loss of the EPO ridging with the rise in PNA ... At least for a time while we use up the cold left in the wake. That could signal less gradient/velocity saturation, and not having to deal with shrinking corridor impacts and needle threading headaches. The Euro has an unlikely 2-day ice storm suggested ... but all the models have the flow at 500 mb twisting about with -5 to -10 C 850s lurking above spring thicknesses in the TV back over TX ... One thing we gotta keep in mind, however, is that the sun increasing so rapidly does play havoc on outlooks as it can add diabatically and cause these "looks" to suddenly modulate - ...

Haha. Altho I argue the greater bust potential is down in this pattern ... this next one is more potent overall.

Hence ... narrower impact.

Not that anything that rolls around in my head matters ... but, it is odd to me that today could be perceived as a "screw job" - and it's not just you. The stench of it is a pall in this social mediasphere's "weather" (heh), if people admit it or not... In the absolute least, the straw-man has a heart beat there. The reason for the 'irk' is because in my humble-o, this was never a big enough deal to be "unscrewed" in the first place. Sorry to say but there is a real, at times laughable, tendency to elide negatives and cons in a given situation in lieu of the entertaining concepts and observations that (admittedly) may reign true. Then what happens? something in between or less...and this pall of screwing hangs over everything. Look, (and you've agreed with this in the past), this is a compressed fast flow, whether any meteorologist wants to admit that or acknowledge why that is a limiting factor. It narrows out impact corridors, and keeps thing moving along, and those are negates on total storm profiles and significance - they just are. Having this thing correct toward less appeal in the now-cast, fits these super-synoptic limitations perfectly really. The "correction vector" is less in this flow... Not intending to preach to the quire or lecture, or come off as holier than thou .. but I don't see a lot of objective realism in the lead up, and not alot of fairness in the post-mortem evals. I don't think Monday is going to register bigger in this pattern, much for the same reasons... But it should be more than this. Point is, if folks were equal on both pros and cons, I don't think this is as screwy as all that... for what little that may be worth.

Still ... ? Not sure I concur... No fault of anyone's or yours - not intending to bust balls here - but, this thing on Monday "might" fall victim to the compression and get squeezed into a narrow producer with less total cyclogen ... It's certainly going to be moving along at ludicrous speed too. That ain't helpin' I'm just leery about going bullish much in the same way as this one. I suspect it's like this one ... only stronger. I admit to being less certain about that extent, but 6-10" may end up being 4-8" and 2-4 more pervasively. We'll see