Typhoon Tip

Yeah ...kinda hard not to when the wind max driving the system is like a buck 80 - ha

Yeah... I looked out the window and it was snowing here in Ayer out of nowhere... but I wasn't exactly paying attention to the progress of this thing, either. The sun is also out while that was happening, making for a bizarre impression.

Euro's got it... or, something like it... Problem is, the flow is so fast that models seem to be spraying buck-shot. It's hard to know if these guidance' are referring to the same system in that time range. The Euro's got two small and one middling shearing out mess to manage out there from D's 4 thru 10. And the GGEM has been vacillating on that too -

Really would be hard-pressed to concoct a deeper violation of sore butts ... We got 32.1 F in thunderstorm density rain this last hour - just no lightning. This, in a location that was at more than one or two times over the past several days at least in the chance envelope for a decent winter storm. Heh, guess what ...it IS a winter storm - hahaha

Arrived in Ayer

Anyone wanna start a snarky sarcastic storm thread for the D7 gig out of smite ?

I do - I wrote about that several hours ago.. yeah - Iso. b wind events are tough. Sometimes they look rather obvious for a strike and then you get this unimpressive standard turbine ... other times, the tree canopies get thrashed around and it's so so forecast. Least that's my experience.. Not sure if the science in prediction is better. But this low is deepening while rapidly approaching. Such that the PGF out ahead isn't nearly as expressing as it would/will be upon exit, at which time it's added - but, that means it's even worst because the pressure is starting from a lower initial state than when it arrived due to deepening while it's passing and so forth. We'll see

Hey is there any higher resolution products featuring stream line analysis ... The GGEM has a meso low over the Cape by 18z and I was just wondering if that's now-cast-able -

Right ... my analysis there was literally just wrt to the high pressure/llv barographic situation as it stands now... But agreed, if we get a meso offset we may modulate the other way some.

Yeah and to be fair, the GGEM - if one chooses to go that route - does tuck southern NH pretty badly tomorrow morning with a good whack of icing ...

With the high moving off to the east and losing the positive pressure pattern over central and NNE...there's not much to protect the region from temperature rising/latent heat of phase change at the regional scope. Will or Scott said it best the other day, that's why without the sub 0C DP steady state insert ... you end up 33. I mentioned this an hour ago but the high retreating the way it did - no one really brought that point up ( I didn't either ) or I didn't see anyone discuss it.. But, when the highs move E, it gets harder to maintain < freezing phase change in the region. It may still dam the air...sure... but it's dammed 35 F Even here alone route 2 it's dripping at 32.5 now.

Something fairly obvious ..tho I wasn't giving it enough consideration and probably should feel a little silly ... If you look at WPC's current sfc product found here: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif ... the surface high pressure is receding due-east. That does mean the BL resistance is reducing in time. Yeah, I was was tacitly aware of this... but, looking at this and then factoring in the incredible wind max anomaly blasing off the MA .. maybe should have given it more respect. I mean the left exit region of that super-jet does partially clip roughly NYC-to BOS and points SE with incredible 100 to 130 kt wind at 500 mb ...etc.. This thing has just failed to thread the needle for us. That's the rub - you don't got much wiggle room with darts at mid range guidance/lead times. It could certainly have all situated just 100 mile E in whole-scale synopsis, but ...that's just the breaks. The western ridge is ultimatley too far west...it's probably just a function of anomalous jet level velocities everywhere, that this flow is 'stretched' enough to bring this thing along it's total deep layer positioning at all.. Because technically the more typical r-wave length argument should have run this thing up through Buffalo. But then again ...150 kt wind maxes that are huge in also volumetric atmospheric mass transport...are not that common at 500 mb either so.. .we get what we get given the limitation integrating - Frankly I don't see how system behavior will be different going forward ... we need a pattern change. Period.

It's interesting that this system spent about two or three cycles where it adjusted SE across all guidance, in a lead time range where no other system this year has been able to exhibit that behavior in guidance' They've all started going back NW earlier on - but of course still too late to have saved the hopefuls from their own expectation monsters. Anyway, it's like in a creepy sense of it, the models knew we were onto the seasonal trend and came up with a way to taunt by introducing that SE faux attempt, anyway. haha. Seriously, I do still think there is a potential here to not see that surface low actually do what these guidance' are showing by slicing from ~ White Plains NY to PSM like that. Here's the rub ...if these eye-roller/tossed NAM solutions show some genius there by squeezing a surface low ...oblonging it around the interior BL resistance ( not an altogether poorly theorized conjecture by that particular guidance regardless of the court of public opinion btw ), it may not mean 30 F icing anyway. The mechanics may in fact decouple from the lower 3K of this thing and glide over the top of 35 F air ... It's a matter of density/viscosity in cyclonic inhibition and can happen anywhere in the temperature spectrum. My guess on the way this winter season seems to be 'spooky action at a distance' running out of it's way to personally violate the bums of anyone that dare's the impertinent dream of wonder and fun... my guess is that we will prove that the low does not go that far NW, while simultaneously "freezing" at 33.1 F But, the flow is fast ... and the GGEM is lining up two winter storms thru D10 ..roughly 3 day periodicity. The Euro's got 'em too, but it doesn't have the cold in the lower troposphere and thus it's lower mean polar boundary is situated N and warm sectors/threatens those. The GFS splits the difference. Neither of these models have really blown us away this season for 'special insight' beyond short ranges so the take away from proving their fallibility is that ( imho ) the GGEM has just as much f'n right to be correct as the others. Bottom line ...things to watch for so not a boring pattern beyond whatever really happens from this. I also think the wind potential in this event isn't getting nearly the coverage it needs. Whether this low does do the less theoretically reconciled White Plains to PSM transit -vs- being blobbed around the BL resistance in the interior... in either scenario, the arriving motion of the total system offsets the PGF response associated with the deepening low pressure, such that we subtract the rapid storm motion from the velocity of the wind as an index finger rule. But, that has to be added back on the back side when the low pulls rapidly away toward later Friday. And it would be worse during those add-back times, because the low will have deepened more... ( Euro was 968mb at PSM I believe!) The 06z NAM shows a single interval pulse to 36 kts at Logan from the WSW ... There's a pretty whopper isallobaric wind potential here where restoring exceeds the PGF and we may get a problem where ever there is an ice load say southern VT/NH ...

This thing might have a wind concern if that NAM solution pans out In fact lotta focus for winter snow and whatever in here but this could be a ferocious storm in general

The GFS has that 170 kt jet bomb along and off the EC ...that's why it's overcoming the damming. It may just be too "damn" much even for positive static stability and inversion. That's just obscene having two flags at 500 mb over PVD... with three flags just S of there. Probably if this set up had the more 'standard' wind max we'd have had the storm S and damming wins easy but this is looking more and more like just an absurd anomaly with that absolute fantastic fire hose at mid levels. Hard to rely on conventional wisdom when said bastion of knowledge has almost no occurrence of those sort of parametrics - I admit that. I've never seen that many 150 kt + flags over that broad a swath since perhaps 1993's March event. Interestingly ... this isn't the first time I've seen those velocities this season, either.

Yup...welcome to N. Phillie folks... This entire systemic evolution is N. Phillie climo incarnate and is their pain -

I was just going to commiserate how you can almost sense the models are trying to weasel out of doing even that much - I mean...I don't care much for icing above general aesthetic nature of the aftermath under blue sky and sun prism romanticism and shit but ... I could almost see us getting 1.2" of snow, a lull with meaningless freezing drizzle, then ...nothing happens when the low opens up a faux warm sector over a cold low level that is an odd situation with no lift over top. and we get nothing... Notice the 54 hour insult to injury...with wind gusts to 48 mph imparting a flash freeze and one snow flake per minute under street lamps. that's how your run a sore-butting -

Pretty clearly this whole system was proving we can lose by C.H.'s

That is such a bizarre look at 48 hours .. Have we ever seen a QPF layout like that -

Yeah the initial 'slight' south suppression didn't translate ...looks like it's heading left of previous on this main ordeal

Yeah it's 3 mb deeper down to 988 and it's just getting going near Baltimore

well ...I dunno, the 'wave' identity is getting a bit entropy - it's starting to just look like an extended warm frontal arm with the light snow axis lifted up and stalled near your neck of the woods... back through northern NH/VT... While much of interior SNE lulls for 12 hours. Appears the main thrust is a rather potent deepening that looks like it's about to bomb on the mid-Atl to ACK transit - so perhaps similar to the 12z if like 25 to 50 mile S. We'll see where this goes... I guess there's "some" sort of wave 1 identity but it's really more like squirting out meso circulations rather than a bona fide 'wave 1'

The NAM appears to be a little suppressed comparing 12z's 30 to this new 24 - 'nother words, a tick south

right... we'll be straight proven right about the colder solutions down to a bone chilling 33.8 F

I dunno ...I still think it is possible for a NAM -like correction to score the coup here. There's reasons for that. But there are reasons to go against too ... I just don't think it's a slam dunk toss because there's some equal weighting - I'll see when the Euro comes out.