Typhoon Tip

in any case... might be a fun nerd spreadsheet to put up the ranks of T/TD spread ... I'd do it with my shimmering life and all but heh, I don't have the data to begin with - it's an hunch that as the DPs rise... the tops start to lop but I wonder what the greatest combo was. Probably hot saturday in '75? but wasn't there a pig bum's air mass in the 1940s

Yeah..I think that might be right at the edge - those events perhaps... Even over those Iowa cornfields in 2011 with that overcooked ham air mass and those 84 F DPs they were only putting up 98 ...'course that's a HI of 120 million but... The juggernaut heat events tend to be lower DPs.. but not always.. If the day dawns 80 at Logan with a west drift and 22 or 23C at 850 and nothing on satellite denser than llv bio mist clear to Chicago, you might make 101 over 73 by accident of a commercial air liner's jet plume wafting past the tarmac..ha

mm..maybe yeah. The Euro's inside of 5 ...and even 4 with Saturday being 72 -84 hours at max heat, and that model's rep/verification is pretty typically harder to beat. That said, it has taken some hits in the last year... Again, again again...it's an outlier with the Canadian and GFS more pedestrian ... Hot either way, ...a matter of how much so. Even in these lesser models it may be 93

You didn't ask me ..buut.. it's hard to set a 98 over a 75 at our latitude ... We kinda need it to be June 15 to July 1... otherwise we aren't getting quite enough solar input to heat a theta-e rich column to that temperature. We can...but it takes a lot of help. Not saying much ..no. If it's 96 over 69 your still jammin your head up a pig's ass just sayn'. I don't think it's ever been 100 over 75 around here ? Will or someone with stats might know..

Euro heat: Saturday 12z has ~17 C at 850 mbs with a PGF orienting the flow from the WSW... It's W at 500 mb ...so is deep tropospheric flow. RH is less than 50% at typical cloud hgts so it's good bet for a very warm day that maximizes... Also, there is some indication in the isobaric pressure pattern for a lee side thermal trough along the interior coastal plain from SW Maine to NJ .. That's usually a 'smoking gun' ( pun intended...) for maximizing the BL ... because that means lift/buoyancy is lowering the sfc pressure, and given the other synoptic parameters the only source capable of doing that would be the heat. So, it's probably 85 or 86 in ORH at 3pm and 93 or 94 at ASH-FIT-BED-HFD ... Sunday dawns set up for close to redic heat. In fact, even at a slightly lesser realization on Saturday than that interpretation above, ..say 84 to 90... Saturday night is high confidence very high night time low. This has been the verification bias ...for about 10 years actually.. but, this season in particular, we're doing above normal stretches on nightimes anyway... Still high sun angle roasting the ground and moving a kinetically charged EML right over top over night isn't exactly sending shivers down anyone's spine ...That's probably 76 for a low at Logan and 81 at LGA... something like that... Then, we we might see 90 by 9 on Sunday morning. 850mb/EML conveyor swaths over the region with continued < 50% RH at 700/500 mbs suggests open sky in a superb heating potential through mid day.. Bottom line is above 90... and probably 94-99 with 88 at ORH or even 90 there... Monday dawns with a similar scenario and we probably race to 90...but, baraclinic zone and whiskey cool front timing for late day probably puts cloud debris and convection in the way of maximizing highs... SO, 88 to 94 steam bath with some DP gathering ahead... Anyway, heat wave signaled.... This is pretty much all that's left of that historic heat signaled 5 days ago for that time range... The other models are not as emphatic...and in fact, the 00z operational Euro was still the more amplified version compared to the EPS mean - which I haven't seen for the 12z ...but, if it should decide to edge back a little toastier than perhaps we can start to plan on a heat wave. Being inside of day 5 ...and having the day 4 and 5 be reasonable extrapolations from day 3 offers some limited confidence. Not sure it qualifies for excessive per se...but it that Sunday has the best shot. One caveat emptor: The west wind at 500 mb ... have to watch for MCS/debris at anytime running along flow there. Probably silly to comment much beyond that D6 ...

It doesn't matter if the SSTs and thermocline numbers are high or low, relative to some longer term averages ... if there is no gradient in the field to trigger a physical response ... those 'super ninos' don't mean shit. It's just this simple: a +2 standard deviation of total ENSO in 1900 has more mechanical power to force a signature in the system, than it does now because the gradient now between that +2 and the atmospheric thermal source and sink is less. LESS = less restoring force ... Less restoring force = less response... There's still a tendency to look at these fields in deference to whether they exist or not ... As though, A exists thus B should result... 'A' cannot merely exist...? If it exists...it is doing so in a constant fluid gradient relationship with its surrounding, at every instant of time in a perpetual balancing of forces... That is entirely the machinery in Nature really... everything in nature is attempting to make the difference between point A and B, 0. When A is less different than B... there is less movement (acceleration) to fix the differences... The atmosphere is entirely guided by that exact same fundamental physical principle. Whereby, that 'acceleration' is observable in subsequent pattern forcing... If A is huge...but B is huge, one cannot merely look at 'A' ... What really needs to happen is that a metric that is the standard deviation of the actual gradient needs to be calculated - not the the SST SDs alone... Unfortunately, the gradient is a dynamic integral ...good luck

Told you CPC would have to knock down the tenor for "excessive northeast heat" for that D 5. The Euro pushing back constantly toward and beyond D6's is really just it correcting it's own amplitude bias as it ages those frames in later cycles... That original excessive bold percentile claim is/was set to begin tomorrow...when it will be 59 F at dawn and smell of low tide clear to Springfield Mass...heh. Maybe not so extreme as that, buuut...there's no deep tropospheric heat signal available to the northeast - to wit, we assume that to mean New England in this context. Frankly ... there is heat over the continent - it's not for lack of supply and demand. It is, however, a delivery problem... I actually give the models a bit of a break on this one, too. They were correct to see the subtropical heat expansion scenario. That much is evident both in the hydrostatic heights and the hypsometric thicknesses permeating south of ...~ 38th parallel across the continent... etc. But, what's happening above that latitude is the arrival of an unseasonably strong polar jet that wasn't really part of those original ensemble visions of a week ago.. It's sort of insidiously albeit relentlessly gain presentation from the N .. slowly correcting and pressing the heat south on every cycles spanning some five day's worth. I'd also give more of a nod to the GFS operational than the Euro on this one, too, because the GFS was always tending to ablate the heat dome's N arc ... running vorticity and jetlets over the top preventing as much liberal polarward migration of the warm 850 mb conveyor... Contrasting, the Euro's correction schemes may seems to emerge a negative performance with that model, one that I've come to find is more express-able over North America perhaps than other quadrants of the N. hemisphere ( geophysical circumstantially). What it does is tends to fall back to whatever signal it happens to be managing at D4 ... turning the page into D6 ( as does it's EPS mean, too) and then runs away with whatever remains - which unfortunately for it, that means it tends to look over amplified in the extended(s). It's the antithesis to winter, why there's too oft D8/9 phantom east coast bombs with the Euro. But in summer ridging ... I mean you look at this, ...it's kind of hard to run a heat transport to the 40th parallel and beyond ...with that giant grinding jet and power R-wave structure in place. If one has a modicum of real Meteorological and climate wit and wisdom about their ability to analyze, this is anomalous flow for mid summer. Orienting in parallel some 5 to 7 hydrostatic lines circumnavigating such definitive R-wave construct for mid summer - frankly, this is the summer variant of the jet velocity saturation issue that was observable in recent winters... It's taking a gradient saturated hemisphere in both cases, just that in the summer,...less so. I've seen that kind of R-wave signature and velocity balancing in February back in the 1990s... Rare, and it takes a relaxation period,... but it's f'n July. This should not look this way... Moreover, whenever the models may relax that N jet structure even a little bit, right away, we get more heat...so it's like precariously we are on the fence.. and noise will dictate which side we land on...

In more ways than one... considering that going above normal is the new norm in itself. There's a kind of cultural adaptation/acclimation going on with folks, because we are +1 to +3 since June 1... Logon is 0 for July ( 14 days worth is a pretty remarkable achievement idiosyncratically, actually...) but otherwise, we gather a "typical" impression from above normal. A true 0.0 month would be bitching about cold anomalies - heh... interesting.

Very similar synoptically to the cool down over a week ago. Weakly low scoots seaward but this one has more actual surface high

Na na na-na na “Watch unlikely...”

We have tall turrets punching the altostratus level here.... I'm a fan of early CU behavior/morphology ... and typically when I've seen that the day performs reasonably well so we'll see. Nice crispy edges with corpuscular bubblet structures... so perhaps the ml lapse rates are better, or CAPE is over performing give or take

it's one of those time-dilation mornings where the clearing line is racing NE on sat vis looping but is always SW of you in person...

Two schools ... sort of offset optimism: in one regard the ML lapse-rates I don't "think" are very good today? They really can't be because the primary frontal slope's now E of the coast by a hair and that means that the antecedent thermal dynamic profile ( pre frontal..) is now mid tropospheric/dispersive above the boundary, and that should be a CIN factor... That said, there could also be intervening layers that offer some instability via evaporative cooling from early turret decay and then sequencing bubbling up ... in other words, the post frontal evironment isn't very convincing 'scrubbing' the air mass, either. in the other regard, ...our climo is usually requiring forced ascent to overcome what is typically poorer SB CAPE to ml d(t) ...which seems to really be the magic ratio for me/ years of observation... Lot of factors contribute, but >50% of the day's success in the Plains is almost always llv CAPE up under a cool/cooling mid level temperature... One overcoming factor though is fluid mechanical lift.. perhaps some ratio of decreasing ML lapse rates/mitigation is then in turn offset by diffluence aloft. You can see there's the latter on early satellite, with cirrus streaks kiting right along over the top of a mid level showers that are not exactly slowly moving through in their own rights... all over a surface that's almost calm... so there's tilting/pulling

18z GFS finally gets the 588 N of our latitude over a convincing period ... Many cycles since it’s done that ...

We need that Sanoran heat release/sourcing like the Euto’s been advertising in the xtensed to actually get into the short range ...just seems to be a permanent fixture out there in the extended but it never seems to mature or last rather crossing into the 84, 96 or even day 5 range Probably flips around in late November and we have a permanent apocalyptic blizzard bomb that never comes either

Kind of hard to when the dpoints are so high 850 m bar temperatures 17+° now seems like for the past 10 days ...on a west wind in a dry adiabat we should probably be 94°

Vehemently agree ! It’s supposed to be starting tomorrow and yet it’s still day 6

Whatever happens ... high probability it happens in a relentlessly screaming rage of jet velocities ...

I’ve been trying to explain to people about expanding Hadley Cell phenomenon which is being papered and science all over the world ... Yeah this among other evidences fits that

sneaky brutal N of the Pike ... we have 86 to 89 at all home stations networked into Wunder that are within 5 clicks of mi casa and they all have DPs 75 to 79F ! it's not a trivial HI, no -

One of those nights in the urban centers I wonder

Good heavens! Are y'all actually still trying to win -

They may be on the verge of significantly adjusting that threat assessment to a 'nah, never mind' status - Looks like the opus in summer fake-outs by the models just made everyone a fool - EPS punching the Pac jet across the N-Tier like that will ablate the ridge pancake meaningless with strafing MCS that probably even end up turning right before the get here. We get a nothing ... for ever - It's called the wah wah waahhhhhh pattern for summer enthusiast. Otherwise known as 'New England'

yeah...no dependability with that heat signal - hard to say if that's just typical day 7+ follies, though obviously there is some of that in that sort of time range... but this has been the seasonal tempo this year, to consummately put up those big warm signals and then watch the models cleverly dismantle them... watch us end up with a shot across the bow autumnal trough - in july no less..hahaha. kidding but it seems continentally there is too much heat forcing out around 110 west to expect ridging east ...something like that... not surprised the Euro backed away from the bd though...it's done that, too, whenever the residual trough tries to move/fill NE and smear out it sees a 12 hour wind of mass in GOM and can't resist the geophysical feed-back in creating those. thing is, ...that's how they happen...so it's hard to 2nd guess - the 00z probably ridge bulges back some .. who knows how much. but we've been sloshing at large scales 00z's being warmer, for several days now.

I imagine there is some problems with the guidance et al because of the system's poorly organized and pallid structure - If/when that gets better vertically oriented and presentable in terms of physical momentum in the grids ...other than a llv swirl that occasionally farts out an anvil ...there might be more consistency. The other aspect is, the variances et al are not that huge anyway - but the sensitivity is necessarily high because a band'll dump 3" and nada two towns away...