Typhoon Tip

Guys ...some people like reading - you're not one of them. Fine - don't read it. If Chris doesn't give a shit beyond the first sentence or two...that's okay too - but that's who it was addressed to. You're welcome to read that take on things if you like ... From a laptop/PC interface, it is not as long as you think - it's just that on a phone it 'looks' overwhelming -

Not shocking ... Each camp playing into their respective, persistent biases. The GFS stretched...The Euro may have been too deep... ( maybe in both cases!) ..but, your description does hearken - Furthering complaint: I've noticed a marked wind velocity surplus in the GFS operational model at middle latitudes everywhere in the World - I haven't bothered to analyze the GEFs members individually, or the mean therefrom, to determine if this is member specific but... the oper. version consummately ablates(ed) ridges in the summer, quite figuratively ( if not physically so...) rasping the tops off them with these 'rest state' huge westerly geostrophic winds in a grinding action ( jesus) ...like, over the tops of ridge arcs where the NVA should - if anything - offset and show some slacking. 75 kts 500 mb wind flow at the bottom of troughs would be 70 kts at 500 mb over the curvi-linear plain ... uh, okay. What makes that peculiar and perhaps 'insidiously' hidden, is that the flow is endemically faster than normal everywhere - like in actuality... In simple turn of phrase, it's a fast hemisphere, being modeled too fast - So, it is as though that natively fast-ish flow is 'enabling' the GFS and making it look right for the wrong reason...at other times, I'm seeing it have to correct back west with S/W translation timing when passing from latter mid into temporal boundary between mid and short range ... I have also noted, during mid August through September, the GFS was consistently 6 to as much as 15 dm deeper with hypsometric trough axis/quasi-closed cores trundling through the flow over ~55 to 70 N through Canada, comparing to all other guidance. It may be that integrating depth against the background subtropical canvas of summer giving rise to velocity - but this was also all true in winter last year. These are glaring biases that I really hope I get to see 'some' form of atonement as we near a release time for this Para- G/beta version. ...A model with a fast bias ... cloaked ( circumstantially ) by virtue of a hemisphere that really has been speeding up... And the global eddy really is mechanically faster - there's a reason commercial airline industry has been so frequently clocking historic, when not above average, ground-based velocity records when flying west to east over oceanic basins and over continental landmass.. everywhere. There was one flight last winter or perhaps the previous ... ( I think 3 hrs and 50 min rings a bell but don't quote me ! ), between LGA and LHR over in London - some sonic speed relative velocity. It's because they're up around 200mb level taking advantage of a gradient saturated hemisphere in the winters ...and I'm virtually convinced it is the expanding HC into the lower Ferrel latitudes ...causing height compression and anomalously high/balanced wind response. But, it's doing other things... For one, it's distorting the R-wave residences and making the entire systemic 'gears' around the hemisphere less capable of blocking - or blocking becomes more ephemeral when it does occur. I think one of the reasons why we are seeing lower -NAO frequencies in the last 10 years, when the multi-decadal EPO/AO/NAO is/was supposed to be tipping negative, is because this velocity richness is impeding/distorting the 'fragile' nature of the NAO domain space... It's suppositional at this point - but may be intuitive in a purely conceptual wave-mechanical sense. But, it is also causing storm behavior/morphologies that are subtle...at other times more gross. There are more 'busted ravioli' type precipitation events ... blown up and smeared across the synoptic plate, where we have lows in multiple nodes along baro-c axis .. Also, often bigger temperature variances astride boundaries in transition seasons ... 80 next to 30 with no storm in a vicinity..because the flow over top is so screaming fast no S/W fan mechanically force jets to even initiate over frontal slopes keeping them stable... But when they do, overrunning becomes favored over the Norwegian Model variation/classic. And, then! When the latter does occur, interestingly we are seeing historically deep pressure cores ... it's like it takes more to overcome a canvas of velocity, but when it does, the other steeper gradients ignite bombs plumbing to category 3 hurricane likeness... ( See NS/NF last year for example..), and they tend to be fast movers. It's like the sped-up flow is favoring less mid grade cyclones ... "in low" ( haha) of either overrunning or hideously violent bombs. Anyway, this thing with the NAM solution at 00z actually is a singular example that exactly fits this above... If that solution comes back --> materializes ... you have a near historically deep NJ Model bombogen running out under LI ... And, historically deep anything after mid October with a marginal atmosphere is going to over-produce in the Z range of the sensible sounding... It's just a potent system overcoming a fast flow, and such that it operates closer to the upper complexion of power and expression and we get tarred and feathered for it... These are like hypertension ... silent killers ... I know these observational trends are true et al, ...I am not entirely certain it is climate change related, but strongly suspect it is so... And, it's probably endemic to this part of the acceleration therein... If the HC continues to expand...the Ferrel circulation will start to break down - gradient slackens and we're warmer overall < 60 N ... But, by then ...permafrost has lost it Methane and we're really in a world of shit... because the Oceans are probably no longer fixing C02 as proficiently ...and that's the ball-game. It's easy to say that won't happen in our life-times ...but that feels like a cozy euphemism and/or bargaining/evasive tactic ... particularly when the changes we are observing in the environment now, have outpaced the climate modeling from the 1990s by some 20 to 30 years! This fact should not put bricks in the foundation of people's confidences as to where this shit's going - but... this whole missive is now a 1,000 words more than you wanted to read if you've even gotten this far so - I appreciate your candor if you did. lol

That 0Z NAM solution extrapolates to a thriller… You’re talking mid to upper 40s light rain crashing into the low 30s with snow falling excessively with thunder and unfolding wind conditions. It’s through 985 mbar and the best Q-G forcing hasn’t even caught up yet; and already the rain snow line is smashing Southeast through the region at 84 hours; that is prior to the former’s best mid-level forcing then passing through so it’s like you’re going to get a massive burst in the snow column on that solution/evolution Unfortunately the caveat emptors with the NAM apply… Right? For one it’s handling beyond 36 hours sucks. Two it tends too much amplitude in this time range with northwest bias‘ and overly negatively tilting troughs – often lending to too much of a northwest position. ...but it’s a subtly more difficult a call because this solution frankly ... I don’t think it’s very much different than what the UKmet and Euro were attempting 12z. in any case that’s going to be anomalously ferocious if that goes to 90 hrs

It’d be nice if one of these held serve from inception in but that’s never the case ...there’s always a run or two that backs off if not completely turns off the dopamine drip and everybody goes running for the Bridges

This is kind of typical… After the first 6 to 12 hours of euphoria starts to wear off people run out and go find the model runs that don’t look very good and all the suddenly it’s grouse time lol

Meh...this is still out there ...no sense in having/getting one expectations up first place but if your vested already - it's sort of silly to be ...

Lol ...The ICON is a 'Rorschach' test

It's the girl of my dreams standing before me with a subtle indentation of her va-goo-goods visible through her fashionable skin-tight yoga wear -

Lightning in this band The trouble is...it's the ICON - which I don't care to comment on it's individual performance? however, this isn't too far strayed from the Euro/UKMET and Para-G complexion of near or at flashing of the column from near wet bald z rain ( actually probably 36 or 37 is the magic flip number ...) to blue dusk job, but this thing's liable to head for 30 and under by 9 pm easy. This could be really bad for the evening commute 18z to 00z as the band probably pivots SE through 5 pm - but ... with Pandemic traffic demography is probably manageable. Anyway, that deck to 1300 ' temp collapse prooobably catches civility off guard as antecedence at this time of year ... I suspect it won't even occur to many to bother looking - it's not supposed to do this in the first f'n place

Lol ... right, agreed - But, you know ..I'm of the school that jesus, we're even talking about this ? It's worth of attention that we have this rationally happening regardless - it substantial in and of itself already -

The Euro is passing out of 'radio silence' on this run and it's likely it needs another cycle or two to lock on the signal - ..it may morph a bit more and is flux. I wouldn't take the details of this run verbatim at D5 ... but... anything after 00z run you'd be wise/safer to begin that consideration - The problem is, despite Kevin's protestations and vendetta to vilify the Euro ... it still outperforms other guidance < D4.5 over the longer termed statistical coverage -

uh I dunno I suspect we see this sort of thing in the D8-10 ranges out of the GGEM and Euro ..but they keep ending up correcting to more NW trajectory over the mid latitude continent as those days get more 5-7 ..and on and so on..

The operational - one might think - must be a southerly outlier by some ...

hah...wow... I love how the Euro has it going over 80 F on D10 in the greatest warm frontal intrusion since a laundry scene outta Shawshank Redemption

It did cross my mind a couple hours ago honestly haha But, I don't know/think this is much of an analog - I'll have to take a look at the NCEP library and maybe study the UKMET and Euro - ..seeing as these have now acted like 'Johnny come lately's showing up and bullying the show away from the Para G ... 'Hey, look what we think!' ... which was the first to hone this specisivity during a generally favorable 'super synoptic' era we've frankly had signaled since the end of September ( imho ..) .. But yeah, 2005 was a compact 45 unit v-max that was so extreme over a small area, the whole system ( also a fast mover...) really fit inside "meso-beta" scale - sort of a derecho sized cyclone with an excessive graphical zenith in power. It folded the troposphere ... it's dated enough now that it may be worth it to discuss - that was extreme stratospheric entrainment event, with a huge surplus of very dry lower stratospheric air sucked into the gravity well along the back side of the wind max, and when that mixed with the saturated backside of the CCB and really created a huge downwelling wedge of gravitationally accelerating atmospheric weight... See you later Cape Cod! boom... 110 mph wind gusts I think? But ... the sun set was visible. the whole thing was 6 hours out here in interior eastern Mass, and we actually saw the sun set, with 12- 15" of new snow and people wandering around looking at the sky dazed and confused...

Something like that... In this case, it's really the very powerful Q-G forcing nosing over the Bite region S of LI...and that UVM forcing triggers a redevelopment back SW along the baroclinic axis.

Sometimes this happens... If we're going to dump over the threshold into an exotic SD scenario ... usually the conventions fly out the door and the region just gets the shit kicked out of them. This "could be that" - ... having it got to lightning and thunderclap, blue-tinted dusk in 5-7" of parachutes, then...fast clearing by 9pm with starlight radiational crazy glue dymonds - I just friggin joked about that ..I think to "Hoth" ? ... now the Euro tries to do that exact joke ? I'm heading out for a lottery ticket... lord

OH my yes ... lol. But yeah... I mean, we're prior to Novie 1 and counting pennies at all is like celebrating a million bucks 30 years ago - enjoying the modern era anyone ? It's a HUGE relative win getting an inch ... let alone, there still some option on the table for more is only enabling avarice - just sayn'

And so it begins... ...the Euro crosses that critical temporal window where contrary to recent popular voice it tends to lay down the law ...and sees this, which is has been in play ( frankly ) for days - ... something's likely out of this. Sorry I think we just went to yellow - ... still can't get detailed but present take -away is > 50% for transitioning system into a colder profile -

get used to it .. .. maybe i mean , that sort of open screaming UVV explosion is a N-stream typology and I think one that could typify this winter. I could see us getting an assortment of clipper/M-b type upper MA/NE specials this year... just sayn'

...said the Woolly Mammoth lol 'it would suck to be encased in flash permafrost before even finishin' this cud'

just off the cuff observation on this chart ... probably? we wouldn't get that thing under in that geometry and speed max without generating thunder claps in a narrow band somewhere a click or two latitude N side of that kink ... That's a whopper frotogen look there...

yeah... re the phasing - I still see this as a fascinating exercise in the models attempting to do so through an unusually narrow N-S region of the hypsometric medium. It's a fast flow/progressive scenario with superb timing - which is crucially the handling that needs to be done the right way to get to these solutions... if the south outpaces the north just a little more it's ripped open ravioli - That UKMET solution is an NJ Model bomb technically ... as is the GGEM trying to move in that direction - ... NJ model lows tend to affect narrower regions but this one also has a smearing into NN because there's jet enhancing in the N stream ... lot happening there

thx!

yeah no ...recently posting demo's the consensus on this... Just personal experience says no and the data at 1,000 K high, pure Earth ORH ( meaning not weirdly polluted by favoring either way...) shows the noise of it - see Will's post.