Typhoon Tip

I was just ruminating back to 1998 ... 21 years ago - seems sort of weird when you say it that way. But, March 29, 30 and 31st of that year were 89 to 91 F each afternoon. This thing? Today? Seems like shaving pubic hairs around here getting a day like today on March 30 - that musta been one hellluva fantastic anomaly back in the day... Considering it's been 21 years with no return ... the rate is 0. Speak volumes

yup ... no question the retreat is underway... Times for Brian about when the sun sets... perfect! J/k Brian.. seriously though ...I argue that the front "mixed" to this position above more so than move 320 miles in two hours ...but stranger things have probably happened.. Anywho, not sure how precise WPC's sfc analysis is, but this is from here, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif , and you can see a west nosing dam signal so it might be slammed shut like a bull's ass at fly time -

Agreed completely ... it's remarkably nerdy and tedious to engage in this conversation rather than try to get outside and enjoy what may take two weeks to return - who knows... - but, I've been trying to point out that the sensible weather and the warm front weather are not on the same page this time. It's mixing out and the difference on either side of the boundary is probably approaching negligible -

Yeah ... I like it too - Not looking forward to any snow chances like those that privately covet that tact and don't admit it - hahaha Seriously, it's why April is such a f'n bore to me man... You get kissed by the hot chick today and tomorrow, and while your eyes are still closed and your all lubed up with a rapid heart beat, this balded heads prison gang banger steps in her place with a cat's paw storm threat that we have to suffer hours of internet fights over marginal ptype chances. What else can I say ... my hearts just not in it.

Truth be told ... gave up alcohol over four years ago... Don't miss it... what are you at right now? We just popped 63 here ... It's fascinating how different this temperature feel with DP... which is 52 at all Davis' within a mile of mi casa ... I pretty sure I've been at least in the upper 50s locally this year already, but it didn't feel anything like this air mass - which 'smells' like summer air for those who know what that means.

Yeah we surged to 63 here up along the rt poopie ... It was 44 1.5 hours ago - That's the shallow bd air mass washing out for us there!

Moron... " It's more likely the the BD and the air on the north/east side of it ... are washing out/homogenizing with the warm sector riding over top ...due to shallow nature, and because the sun is reaching the surface ... helping to simulate warming and modest mixing... The front was not N of the Pike as of last empirical fact - not alternate - analysis by 150 years of scientific and technological proof. In three hours...the analysis may show a warm boundary up near CON in NH... but that's a formulation/reposition ...not a circumstance that abases the present fact that the boundary is located S of CT.  " ... you may in fact not be intelligent enough to understand what is happening here... but your stupidity is clearly reinforcing your assholiness

We use the word "threat" to define every tom dick and harry nuance perturbation in the flow, too. Threat, to my particular brand of pettiness ... should be reserved for those prospective ordeals that come with an impact that is greater than negligible - and by that, we should mean ... can pose danger to property and safety, or in the least, a modicum of ability to register in memory. For those who have Asperger's syndrome... if you are remembering a 3" deal on Feb 4, 1982 ... the fell at 2 am and no one knew when the morning sun reduced it to dew, that's different. I mean, 'society'. Let's just call an obviously inconsequential bottle-rocket cyclone to the Maritimes... swinging too far E to matter as a neurotic holding on to the chance for something in the cinema of the models to fill the void of a vapid life that is otherwise devoid of anything to get excited about, and let it go...

It's more likely the the BD and the air on the north/east side of it ... are washing out/homogenizing with the warm sector riding over top ...due to shallow nature, and because the sun is reaching the surface ... helping to simulate warming and modest mixing... The front was not N of the Pike as of last empirical fact - not alternate - analysis by 150 years of scientific and technological proof. In three hours...the analysis may show a warm boundary up near CON in NH... but that's a formulation/reposition ...not a circumstance that abases the present fact that the boundary is located S of CT.

...this is the front regardless of the sun coming out and the clouds peeling away... Maybe this erodes during the day - and in fact... models are suggesting it does.. we'll see, but, if anything it hearkens to the shallow nature of this BD air mass... It's hard to imagine that can really happen with that 1028 fatty sitting up there over NE Maine but that feature's bodily moving away in these guidance that I don't trust - ha

Heh... there's humiliating Kevin... okay - but this looks a little like a personal sniper fire...

yeheah... like, stealin' a nice day out of this mess - the atmospheric equivalency to 'chicken salad out outta chicken shit'

Ha ha... ...I'm sure he's seething - ... my purpose is served..

Mm... Read the graph ... don't respond to pretty colors... Those are modest warm anomalies? Those contours suggest that region is ~ 100 meters warmer than normal... That's 10 DM ... or the arbitrary difference between 540 to 550 ... 570 to 580...etc. In other words, very modest on an actual daily chart if even noticeable. Now, ....the word "torch" is obviously subjective... Maybe he thinks of that as a torch - okay... But, I don't think honestly that's what he had in mind - if he had anything in mind at all... No, as usual.. .he saw that orange ball and impulsively voted for Trump.

that's a good idear Brian... heh, I was so interested in castigating the entire day for this shit that I just leaped at the opportunity to do so ... auto assessing the boundary as wrapping three times around the planet if for no other reason, to bust anyone [personally] that looked forward to a warm day ...ha But hi res vis imagery/sat in general can help elucidate... I will add, the boundary will be south and west of BD cloud edges by some... but if it is truly retreating... we'll see..

Granted some annoyance motivated that word choice to Chris buuut... sufficed it is to say (and I've opined/commiserated this amply in the past...), if there is a BD anywhere on the map around New England from ...circa April 1 to almost July ... the planet Mercury fails to warm sector on the side that is tidally locked toward the sun too - that's right ... so bad, it f*'s that other planet's warm day up... ha. It's called hyperbole Kevin - Although... there does seem to be needed a standing perfunctory correction ... There is no model or technology capable of [ apparently ] correctly positioning that particularly type of low level feature, BD frontal movement, in space and time, out in space and time.... None. And that includes the Euro. Some do better than others.. sure, but none really master that. I tell you what ... as an [ apparently ] successful Science Fiction author, I almost would suggest that there is something beyond mere Ekman uncertainty and planetary/atmospheric surface drag obscuring, that is really doing that. I've seen a lot of Euro runs in the past ... 10 years really, where the model has closed tiny pockets of 0 C 850 mb air lingering over the surface E of the cordillera (roughly WV-W. Maine) - anything east of that axis... and that is despite 12 solid hours of having veered the winds around to the SW with no apparent countering shear - ie., unidirectional in the vertical. So ...how...why? It almost seems there is an electrostatic "cling" effect - perhaps related to thermal absorption that adds an additional weighting to retarding warm ... when added, draws BDs SW from an additional kind of previously unknown vector. Hey... lightning can kill a golfer on the 8th hole of Lake Valley Club out side of Boulder Colorado from a vaguely visible horizon CB ..50 miles yonder in one of these bolt from the blue deals... There can be some sort of cling/static effect between the atmospheres and the Earth below ... But we're spit-ballin' for fun here. Whatever the cause in reality, fronts CAN'T be assessed properly when they start moving SW under their own momentum ... in a positive static stability sounding (that's where warm is over cold below)... The only time that busts warm is if the front doesn't really exist - I've seen the models create faux BD in the mid range ...whole 'nother headache.

You were kidding right ... ? nah, heh ... BD 'ill be in Trenton NJ by lunchtime - we ain't gettin' no 'warm day' ... This was bustin' from the get-go, less we collectively were dumb-down to mouth breathers, negating all aspects of both experience and education in such matters...

18Z parallel tries to redux 1984 ...

Oh yeah dude... Deer? heh... they snort bird seed like 'coke -

we warned everyone days ago ... still, tomorrow could end up better than modeled ... sometimes SW warm sectored air can surprisingly clear out

Ha! speak of the devil... not only is the Euro siding with the progressive thing... it's speeding it up! that wave - or what's identifiably left of it ... goes from Tennessee to the lower Davis Straight in 24 hours... Some 4,000 naut miles! Edit, never mind... my source skipped a day - a fact that occurred to me when I realized that it is physically impossible for actual air in the Earth's atmophere to move that fast outside of comet impact - Still, it does demo the sped-up nature of the progression... May miss SE ...may not,... but It's probably a quick mover. All but sell the dreams of avarice CCB creeping through with 20 "

.. it's not my gradient - it's gradient that results when you take a post Younger/Dryas ... and subject it to roughly the last 200 year's worth of industrial revolution's conversion to economic ambition, while not connecting any moral culpability along the way... But I knew what you meant though. I think this is stage one of GW's relentless assaults on winters in general. Hypothetically: Stage I: the atmosphere above the 60th parallel plummets every November when the sun fades below the horizon/critical irradiance levels. But...GW is holding 2 to 10 decameters of ambient heights below that latitude ... too subtle to show up on the typical anomaly scales, but when those cold heights press into that girdle at mid latitudes, the flow goes vroooom! It makes sense that 2018 waited so late - if such a hypothesis has any validity, because by then... it's like 'finally' the surrounding medium isn't pressing back as much. Stage II is when the rapidly warming polar regions close enough of the difference that late autumn gradient doesn't slope as steeply between 75 and 35N... Who knows when that is... decades from now - or less... I've always thought of 2015/Feb as being so far suppressed that it actually benefited some regions by virtue of being deeply inside the SPV - but even that year...things tended to move right along.

Yeah ...whiff or not ... there's not much about this last ... 5 years really, that makes me think that at any time between October 15 and June 1 at any time...there is going to be a slow mover that's not progressive ... I mean, folks keep in mind... not saying we won't get clipped by ...whatever that is, but I suspect it's haulin' ass whatever that is -

Not that mo counts for much buut... seems to me this is gradually transforming from a climo stranded meander stream look (spring west Atlantic thing) into more of progressive fast moving open wave more [partially] phased with the westerlies. It does vibe with some potency ...but may be more of a thing for the Maritimes Pretty much, Euro-esque... I'd be looking for models depictions that are modulating in that direction. Marginal.. fast mover... Pretty classic look for spring too, with glop potential followed by 55 F katabatic flow in searing early April sun the next afternoon...

It almost seems like ...just eye-ballin' those seasonal snow numbers, the heaviest water-shed run-off may be on the NW sides of the topographic divide ...