Typhoon Tip

I really am wondering if atmospheric scouring during/post/on-going industry suspension is allowing crucial insulation loading - I mean we could go thru the math but just wonderininin... some particulate mass in free air has an albedo .

People either don't get it, or don't care... and I feel like I'm yelling at an empty room ( lol ) ...but this is indirectly related to the expanding HC stuff - which is empirically measured and papered, btw so folks that care to understand oddities as they get more common, really should give a shit... But, what happens is, the easterly band in the Atlantic quadrature of the total HC belt ... has a widening latitude, and that displaces the westerlies over top ..pushing toward high latitudes ... It's why we've seen increased actual tropical wave activity, along with eddy captured Saharan air-layer dust running up as high as the Carolinas in recent decade .... But, this may happen more frequently...where the Mid Atlantic ends up more SE with eastern heat patterns ...where they were SSW mid way through last century... and that's humid/elevated nightimes, but damped higher temperature flow for them. But indirect to all this, the continental heat delivery belt ends up higher in latitude. It's not at all times...duh. And there will be times where the more familiar paradigms set up ...obviously these things have blurred climate lines... But, this whole synoptic evolution leading to this three day ridge/warm pattern was modeled to have an unusually wide expanse of easterly-type trade belt S of Bermuda ...and the rest state of the exiting lower tropospheric ridge glided right straight east over top and did not assume the traditional position more SE of Cape Cod toward Bermuda... the result was that the heat belt was displaced N-NW...

Yeah agreed... NASA was founded by/for a set of virtues after the mid century space race only made it look like that was happening - but that was a farce and facade that masked one of the three real faces of the Cold War. Those being, nuclear stock-piling, the Cuban Missile Crises, and the Afghan conflict with the Soviets ( which led inexorably to the Taliban if one knows their world history...) For a few decades, it was then operated by principled idea of space/science exploration .. slowly eroding ... pretty much no longer exists. They've arrived to a scenario where circumstances ( less economic appropriations ) means they either severely limit the operation down to irrelevancy ... or, partner with privatization - enters Elan Musk. ....and in 40 ..50, 60 years ( if perhaps optimistic...) we can work it out so that these seeds grow a reality that really is like "Ellysium"'s orbiting ring-world of utopia for the wealthiest ...and the other 99% lives below with half the life expectancy on a diet of dead cats and sewer water on a planet that roasts in GW and the stench of countless extinct species... Oh, and these rat "landers" are still conned into voting for Trumps - Speculation is so much fun ... Real space science is now lost on Americans and probably the rest of western civility ...a latter distinction that is blurred anyway. Industry is dumbing-down mankind, pacifying the species with easier access to living, lost urgency ... a confederacy of idiots. It's what happens... Lost humility in desperate times leads to positive inventions, both social and physical, because there is need to make life better for all, utilizing both ... Society succeeds in doing so, life gets easier... apathy takes over across successive generations... and sloth and decay take over once again. It's happened in every civility since the beginning of... Cyclic - ... Now this may seem heavy-handed with moral this and that, but, ...I don't like the privatization of cutting edge technology - that usually doesn't end well for the provincials

There'll be a trough rollin' out this air mass ... Indeterminate heat around our particular geography is almost never going to happen anyway. 3 days ...? yeah, it'll be time, anyway, when that front comes through to end the laze faire warmth party. I agree that the Euro is too deep with that sudden inordinate looking bobbing downward in latitude with the trough as I outlined/annotated above. A flatter/progressive correction... Won't shock me if Sunday is a breezy and 74 with d-slope DPs around 33 by 4 or 5 in the afternoon.

scrubbed

Euro here is the D6 ... whenever you see a post Day-5, teardrop trough that is perfectly symmetrical like this, it is far more likely it is an enhancement of something other than organic physics in the model and I suggest that while a trough translation may be real ...it is unlikely to attain the fictitious structure below ... That might also call into question the scale and degree of cold it transports.

Of course "flipping" seems to be an emergently increased frequency phenomenon - it happens more than it used to..ha. Seriously though, I've seen these wild swings more and more in recent decades so...

Assuming it happens The fact that D7 has near heat wave 850 ts rolling through the upper MA not 24 hours after that strikes me as a model having trouble managing both: seems the model's 4-d antics are in conflict with organic physical processing there... I'm still not believing that until it's at D4.5 in this particular synoptic leading circulation type - it seems to be placating a particular bias the Euro has to take anything that's residual after it's clean-up normalization algorithms ...and assumes since it made it thru, it must be legit ...so we better gas-light the remainders. But then it's stuck with too much depth, and then the ensuing frames force and results is an questionable/ unnatural flipping signal.

This is a straight up hot day in metro-NW of interior SNE.... Northern Middlesex/W Essex and N. Worcester Co's are 88 to 90 on enough home stations and uniform in layout ...combined with sensible people daring to walk down the street and back.. sorry, it's f'n hot man. It's real. Exacerbated by the fact that the sun is thru pure blue not typical for +16C at 850s... this post Pandemic holocaust clarity is lazing the landscape - and there's very little ventilating wind. Probably we squeeze another tick or two on these numbers, too. Plus, the wind seems to have veered slightly more SSW as opposed to S and that is walling off the south coastal indirect modulation - Pike south is modestly relieved

Mid 80s up here along the Rt poop... DPs around the town's Wunder' network are doing the typical 68 backyard thing ...so probably 63 mixing depth or so...But as we lamented yesterday, it only matters what is felt on the person, so if it's 86/68 ...it feels what it feels regardless of tarmac sources... anyway, I wonder if the S. coastal 'boundary' makes its way up this far... Prolly not.. it probably gets to about the Pike then the eastern end of it tilts toward Cape Ann/SE NH...

Seasonal lag is blurring season distinction ... Summers are getting affected over the greater geographic region of central/eastern Canada, and it is subtending influence into the NP-Lakes-NE regions. The Pacific balancing/folding pattern is causing a global cooling well to materialize ..one that counter-intuitively appears more endemic to summer, but then washes out late autumns when winter kicks in. This has been going on with just enough interruptions to ignite arguments and obscur awareness - but ... unfortunately, it's not a good sign for winters in general. Y'all wanting-on these weird trough incursions that are climate oddities, ...as though 'symbolic' of short summer...heh. You should be advised, it's not getting you closer to your neurosis fulfillment of winter. Heh... ribbing aside, your winter is probably just as f-ed, because of the same force f'ing up the summer(s) is doing what last winter did, to last winter... and the winter before...and will likely mean winters continue to be impacted by disruptive wind anomalies at mid latitudes ..ripping R-wave stability and preventing traditional storm tracks from doing what they did prior to the hockey-stick CC onset 20 years ago... ( lol, but all seasonal outlooks are meaningless until some Met has the cojones to say, no winter because of CC - that's their outlook. 21, ten page climate outlooks from reputable firms, with one genius paper summed up in one sentence like that). Too much gradient. HC expansion into lower middle latitudes during cold season is compressing the flow and ripping cyclone transit belts all over the hemisphere to pieces. But that same thing is causing NE Pac cold loading to perpetuate/kick back in spring and summers... Yes, this happens despite hotter than normal decades from IND to NYC...

Heh... it was a heavy-handed dark satirical take. Unfortunately, like all humor, does carry a modicum of truth/reality - I don't know. We've also had more tor events and reporting in recent years - probably owing to the fact there is more popularization to drama and natural events ... lending to more pervasive public awareness. I mean, in 1953, I've read accounts where it was clear, those watching had no f'ing clue what they were seeing; comparing the generations of lore and the general culture back then, where/when public notification policies were formulated, to now? The world is a different place... the general ability to access 'wall cloud' images and film, and just have an inkling is a presumption at this point. It's more likely that a guy can identify a suspicious real-time cloud motion/pattern in the sky, and then ...a town loses ten trees and a roof .. a calved off church steeple, next to a soccer field where some handsome athlete(s) gets injured, and his/or her negligent law-accessing, self-absolving unscrupulous parents ultimately raise taxes for everyone to pay for their conversion of that kid's health and vitality into a monetary settlement ... when if they had not assume their asses would be wiped in every turn of their f'n reality and bothered to check the forecast they might have not had their kid on the field at 5:10 pm in 84/67 with a 120 kt 500 mb jet fisting in from the west.... you know ... So, the same sky is producing the same shit it did in 1955

It's because we live in an overtly litigious culture, that's why. You take civility of hard working, sacrificing... principled, virtuous people, feed and masturbate them with surplus over the contiguity of generations, eventually the erosion of those ethics is inevitable. Look everywhere in Humanity's history. It is empirically shown to be unavoidable, whether reflected in cute childhood parables, painted on cathedrals walls and ceilings, or thematically arced in the greatest literary works of all time. Civilities, as an integration of the individuals, eventually sloths when in realms of abundance - invariably loses those ethics that were needed to construct those same relative utopias. It's part of the catch -22 ... the same power of enginuity is not sustainable? When in a Universe that never wastes anything as a Natural Law, the ingenuity that it takes to construct a society of relative opulence, no longer is needed once that opulence is experienced. We didn't evolve the the checks and balances of virtuosity and morality along the way, or at the same rate, as did the power to create all this dazzling (faux) supremacy over Nature. So... the Natural Law kicks in, and the virtue of its sustainability escapes the users; it is not immediately sensed or seen as necessary - an unnecessary use of energy to maintain it - it decays... Cyclic that way, I suppose. So, what is materializing out of it all this, other than a cocktail of events that signal an eventual end to civility as we know it, is a population of participation-trophy-seeking, self-aggrandizing, 'I'm special" nimrods - sound familiar? A little tongue-in-cheekism there... But, if people rolled up sleeves ( or had to...) in life, and earned their figurative orgasms ...they'd be more humble and forgiving, and in realization of the stench of their own - as is? They believe they don't have to smell their own shit - sloppy metonymy for being disconnected from the foundation of their luxuries. We've come to use the law to protect this delusion of expectancy and entitlement that results.. that's why. It's part of the decay of society, a sign of civility in trouble when litigious self-absorption starts dictating and codifying policy - In the 'tornado paradigm' people have succeeded in monetary winfals by mashing up law with dumb-down 'juries of our peers' ... leading to plaintiff cash-ins. So, the policy has to now overstate those threats. It's a "disclaimer defense against the tsunamis of the feckless". Greedy developers build communities on a flood plains and veritable tornado lab landscapes, and then in rush the me-first, multi-generational, convenience addled-stupefied cultural folk of blinded lust home-buyers. Inevitable flood comes, and the the feckless folk that didn't have the virtue or the patience therein to vet general risk assessment ( let alone circumstantially in a position to even suspect risk at all) .. don't have to worry - there's this litigation to save their asses. And we don't even need to build on the 'plains and the 'labs, either - the attitude is such a force in culture now, that any inconvenience becomes a winfal to the unprincipled -

Looks like I may be wrong about the Logan flipping off -shore late deal. The gradient is too S. Combining that with the thermal balancing maintains a SE inflow at shore points. Great sat/vis loop of fisherman's spirit bending around Cape Ann... bet you can see the translucence apparitional shreds as they haunt the early summer sky ..back lit by the sun.

even as far inland as Ayer here...about 10 mi as the crow flies west of the NW arc of I-495 ... this about the terminus of the average breeze-banged day ...the cu seem to know not to develop and get scoured out, even tho by the time the momentum of the boundary is waxing it almost doesn't feel cooler. \ T-sensy but you can see the scour line here: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

seabreeze perhaps ... "front" doesn't have the mechanics ...just sayn' but yeah. You can see it on hi res imagery why you don't live there if you like summer. lol..

I got 87, 88 and 89 now within 2 clicks of mi casa and all have DPs 67 or higher. I walk down the street with that 5 mph zephyr deep wind chill and it is definitely quite warm/sensibly. To be fair, we have not had DPs over 60 with combining air T of 84 at any point since...I dunno, last September? ...not where I have been.. So, this may be giving me a bit of a faux impression of things - still... it feels hotter than any of the ap/NWS site readings as of last check. 84/62 ...

I got a Met buddy down south of ORH in Auburn Ma ....he has a higher end tech set up at his place - backyard .. yup His neighborhood's 600' el. Just txt'ed with him and he's saying yes, the DP graph dips and correlates with the gusting pattern of the wind - that's fits Brian and my intuitive idea about mixing proficiency. He does, however, say that 5 to 7 F movements are not that uncommon - that's a pretty big spread based on pooling alone. Fascinating. It's a micro-Met study thing -

Until the wind blows. That's Brian's partial point; the tarmacs at ap's are going to be wide up spanses of better exposure to wind and mixing. Circumstantially, that means that if a gust of wind penetrates the relative denser neighborhood setting ... you almost wonder if those back-yard rural stations might have dips in their graphs more -

mm.. Both fire stations at Ayer and Shirly center are 70 and 67 respectively, and there are no tarmacs around either. Ayer is probably better mixed out of the two, as that setting has no overhang and it's sky in all directions over that site... But Shirley's is in the nador of kettle topography with woods nearby ...you'd think it'd be the other way around.

LOL ...

NWS sites 64, home stations to 71 type of layout would be my guess. NWS is calibrated, but so to ( supposedly .. ) are these home techs. It's an interesting disparity that seems to pop more in the late spring through early autumn where home averages run wet. It could be legit, but over-top conditioning. Like, most NWS sites are situated near or over tarmacs at ap's. Where as Joe Schmo's state of the art home station with a wind ana propeller and gomer stat hardons might be set up near gardens where they've just run the hose under a blazing Tuscon sun all day. There's that, but also just being more foliage and greenery and in general exposure to soil moisture probably legit gooses it. Those are probably real DPs and the airport tarmacs sort do civility a miss-rep ... it's too consistent not to be some value there. Either way... it certainly provides for spirited arguments -

actually ...said momentum may be a south wind so...heh... maybe not at Logan itsefl

probably see some orange-hued distant TCU lining along the Berk's hi res vis imagery shows some pop-corning already along the spine and that's typical in the initial post-warm frontal air mass - it's like sensy to it's own newly arrived DP/theta-e budget and the solar jolting that's going on briefly over stimulates SB CAPE... which by the way, that is some seriously unadulterated pig-eyed starlight lazing going on out there. Thru a bermuda blue sky, too ... This is continental warm sector air, mind you. This has gotta be Industry-shut-down clear-air attributed, because that sky is definitely vastly more purely blue than is more typical in this sort of air mass arrival in New England - if it were any more pure, we'd be on the moon! We are the exit point of continental bio-mist-Industrial fart mix, and spanning multi-generations. (heh) skies typically have a pal blue value in this/these sort of air masses. Interesting. I am also noticing the 12z FOUS NAM has 850s warmer as we've come upon this air mass and are finally in it. It's 15.5 C over Logan on a 230 deg wind, with <50% RH at LGA/ALB/BOS triangulum in the model's typical cloud heights above the 800 mb level, and nothing on sat preventing superb heating realization. I suspect MOS busts here folks. Scott may be right about those upper 80s... I thought that was pricey but now that I see these initial conditions in situ I'm not as opposed to this over-achieving over decks and parking lots, and downtown thoroughfares where NWS cleverly puts thermometer houses - you know where civility actually lives and breaths. Logan's in one of those days where it heats a bit interior..mixes modest momentum down for offshore flow...then the wind flips out there late afternoon and their temp bounces I bet. Meanwhile, cross the bridge in Cambridge it's 88.7 F

That ending bold is key.. otherwise, a morning sounding of -3 C will super adiabatically get annihilated as powered by insolation; it will literally force/transform the column on the fly toward a warmer profile, during the afternoon. I mean the misnomer is that the -3 C at 850 yielded 73 F at the surface. NO, the -3 ended up by solar heating-forced mixing to be +2, and then that ended up 73...etc..etc... If there's cake cu forget it Anyway, I've likely written more than anyone will read this morning but I personally think that whole trough is destined to modulate toward this being a moot discussion purpose anyway. It think we're going to find that it gets flattened and more progressive open structured. I don't think the Euro is going to get it's way in the latter mid and extended range with that look, either. And all this prooobably translates to less -5 SD 850 mb cold incursion to begin with, but we'll see. I need this one inside of 5 days to believe that. I agree re the Euro over doing it