Typhoon Tip

There's timing differences ... but by and large the models seem to agree on wave spacing late in the weekend or early next week. May be the last one that offers and winter enthusiastic hope ... before the book really closes ...

you need 24 hours ... then it's over

BD #1 ...

...I'd even guess a middle aged male with latency/self-identity issues ... trying to lure posters into a PM scenario to test role playing fantasies .. Dating sites are notorious for that kind of crap... stringing people along for either nefarious criminal intent, or psycho-babble fantasy/role-playing using non-suspecting targets ... It's not that uncommon - there was a poster on here a few years ago, pretty sure dating back to Eastern. I think "she" hailed from Uxbridge ... "central_masswx" was the alias if memory serves ... one that time cannot erode from my mind soon enough. This individual began PM'ing me out of the blue ... Content played the lonely card ... Offering up that she had trouble meeting people ... and I seemed understanding and kind. I ended up on some sort of photo-bucket account. '... Want to see what I look like....' - classic. I mean why not .. right? And of course what I'm seeing is this sort of blurry image of an uber hot female as she straddles what looks like a pummlehorse amid a play-ground setting ... You can't write this shit for PH forums. Inevitably ... it became tantalizingly serendipitous that we ' ... like all the same things' ... and ( eeewwww) ' you're really handsome.' Things got suspicious straight away though from about that point along flirtation course work ... She wanted to meet, but then would play coy about times and places ... Putting things off by entering flimsy petty reasons... Only to regroup and act like it was still really going to happen... The coup de grace was when she offered up what really looked inadvertently like "male" turns of phrases - either this, or was an attempt to test. Not sure... Not interesting though. It just became more dubious and eventually it was an easy guess this person was not the person they had purported/illustrated of themselves. People do that shit ... it's a phenomenon on social media ... concomitant with the anonymity of the Internet ... 'Identity fraud,' and the reasons they engage are varied.. Be it criminality, or some sort of psycho-babble fantasy role playing. It's the internet... this is an intrinsically anonymous stage, lit so brightly that the audience is utterly shrouded in impenetrable blackness of uncertainty as to just who in the hell we "really" are interacting with... Oh, that vast majority of times, Will is Will, Steve is Steve, I'm me, your you, and Kevin's a douche... and we all know and confidently know that - helps that we've met in public from time to time... But, every so often - heh... never know

satellite shows so beautifully the geography of this region .... sucking cold air masses SW and under the environmental flow ... within ~ 250 mb of the surface - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Ha... it's a dude man -

In theory ... it's suppose to be that way operationally ...and work out that the NAM would be better. That's theory ... In practice, perhaps not so much The NAM is for whatever reason, not equal to the task doing it's part. But the basic philosophy is the the NAM's superior low level resolution would be better, as it would be able to see the BL cold loading more proficiently that even the Euro... which would be superior to the GFS in its own rites... However, as we know .. .the NAM can sometimes just not work... oy

You won't be able to penetrate his hee-haw donkey schtic with reason ... buuut, the 'wedge' wasn't supposed to make it to CT until after 21 z this evening, anyway. As far as the excerpt ...who knows what redacted form that is, that he has pulled out of some other total context for the purpose of dishonesty ( ...in the first place..) but if the source really meant that in whole, they're likely wrong on the temperature before the wedge even arrives because looking around at sat and surface obs and considering the synopsis ...not sure where they're getting 60+ in HFD from now until the timing of the BD/cold push ....

You could call the Euro 'just eye-candy' but ... even eye-candy can't taste like shit - that run makes no sense beyond D5/6 for a second consecutive run in a row. Purely in a climo sense, you're not likely to get -1 or -2 SD 850 mb temperatures over NE when you have west winds blowing from central Canada through the D. Straight region. Even the GFS is consolidating around less -NAO ...as is the Euro, yet the Euro keeps trying to play the storm track like one is raging. stranger things have happened I supposed...

Let's play a game ... see who can correctly guess which side of this pretty blue boundary Kevina will be -

Rock bottom day at Logan and probably out to I-95 in this 18z NAM 34 F with drizzle at 4pm on Boston Common ftw! That right there is vintage April ....

Yeah Kevin... like this one? Talkin' hammocks and brew time, huh!

If anything ... if there's any modicum of Meteorological virtue to science and empirical study therein the intents of the usership ...it'll be a fantastic opportunity for now cast observation of the boundary as it fists it's way southwest. Does it come as a single cold corrective blast? Or, is there a subtle boundary passage ...then the cold mass lags? These things come in different form and it's worth it to one's general bastion of knowledge and experience if they actually act interesting in weather once in a while - just sayn'

If the boundary stops through some prestidigitation of the unknown ... there's a whopper gradient on either side - as there concomitantly would be in early April... Some 30 F easily. On the FRH grid (NAM) ... BOS (Logan..) is 41 F at 980 MB sigma, at 00z tomorrow evening ... LGA is 21 C at that same time and level. 980 is like... mid way up the Prudential Tower in altitude... and later in the evening, it's crashed to 34 ...strong synoptic marker for the direction of the momentum! Now, common SNE experience with BD fronts and the interior aspects of Kevin's skull are apparently immune to one another ...but for rest of us outside of his particular brand of trolling with a smile, that usually doesn't end well for warm weather enthusiasts. Na...personally I'm drawin' the shades on the 'morrow. I'll be in a nice environmentally controlled office much of the day, and will scoot from there to the gym...then to night telly...having completely ignored the day entirely... May need to do with Tuesday as well... we'll see

Kevin is precisely ...180 degrees conceptually backward when it comes to handling 'wedgies' - for general education purposes. Picture yourselves sitting in a class.. The professor says, do the opposite of that - Cold, dense air masses rollin' back SW under the environmental flow is numero uno predominating all else.... Period. SE ridge is could not be more catastrophically irrelevant to the raw power of static stability with physical mass free to move underneath an inversion...

Not entirely sure... Imaginatively, I wonder if gravity wave phenomenon were involved, pushed along/enhanced by synoptic jet acceleration over top ... It might show up in the soundings over ALB but ...said sounding would have to have been collocated in time with the event - hard to do that... The phenomenon was truly hauling ass! Surface relative distance between Syracuse NY and Rutland VT ...maybe 150 naut miles? That's a total guess - don't shoot me ( 220 or so by roads but that's not how wind moves circuitously over land...) Anywho ... the leading striation covered that distance in 1:45 hours when looping hi res vis imagery. Quick calculation d=rt yields, 100 mph! So, if there were some over-top jet max that helped propagate g-wave underneath it's nose, it would need to be moving ~ that quick or faster. Maybe somewhere between the 500 and 300 sigma levels... These are spit ball numbers off general spatial observation... I don't know what the air-linear distance between those two locations is, and am willfully too lazy to find out. It kind of reminded me of when you're looking at a still water surface over a lake, and a fish doesn't completely breach the surface ...but may swim within a few inches of doing so before submerging deeper again... It pushes similar bands outward along it's trajectory - ...if a slug of wind max were running over 600 mb level ( est where the cloud deck is/was...), it may impose similar gravity waves along that sigma level ...exposed by the cloud pattern being disrupted. ..For the better. We cleared out nicely for a stint when those striations whipped by and our temp jumped into the low 60s...

I know... you know, it seems sort of antithetic to climate for that bulb of cold air to hang precipitously south in the pressure contouring like that, and not have it come rollin' south to Atlantic City, NY ...but the models have been really persistent with that - still doesn't mean they can't be in error, of course. It's like 'duck', ha

Time sensitive ...but this is amazing looking... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined check out those striations propagating rapidly eastward as they arc from NW to SE thru eastern upstate NY... They may yet get you some sun even up near mid/central regions as ...whatever that is, it is clearing smartly as it ripples through the flow... Speaking of rippling - tell me that doesn't look like the ring-wake after a stone hits a placid pond. Some sort of g-wave maybe... not sure...

That Euro run is garbage beyond D5 ... 6 though. It's trying to run a suppressed storm track that is concomitant with a west-base -NAO. Unfortunately ...without actually employing a -NAO. Either the spatial layout of positive geopotential anomalies N and NE of NE's latitude evolve more positive between now and then, else that system ends up in the Lakes hopper just like so many fated before ... It's been an insidious sort of secondary emergent property that we've been battling ...since the snow event and cold snap of November it would more than merely seem. The character of that property goes by the age old trope: 'what can go wrong always does'. There's like a normal bust quota. The normal positive versus negative production curve ... Technically ... being off 2 or 3 F on a high is a bust.. Oh, we don't call it that... because the significance could not be more trivial - unless the trivial number means the difference between a foot of snow and 1.2" of cold rain; then the fires of busted Hell has no fury! Heh, it just exposes the subjectivity of it all... Excluding that perception versus reality for a moment... if an event in question's result is satisfactorily reflecting the outlook-induced imagination of what it should.. ( save for Kevin - who believes that falling short of an 'apocalyptic nice' 72/50 afternoon means negative bust and so everything is automatically... ) it doesn't get labeled that way. Every single system that is designed by the models, out in time, verifies with some aspect of positive versus negative production ... Simply a matter of significance and whether it is noticeable or not... Since November? The ballast of either event distinction has squarely scatter-plotted on the negative side of the results bell curve. What's interesting ... it's not a snow thing...or a cold thing...or a hot thing... It's just get it wrong at least excuse imaginable thing, where the 'wrongness' is always sloped in the direction no one wants. Amazing. Moreover... banal and uninspired... insipid and torpid. Except for the Mountains... good local-scaled "enabling" Pleistocene mimic -winter for a > 1,000 K elevation and above the 45th parallel.

Oh yes sir - ...about 7 F away from a 25 mi bike ride... easily doable circa 3pm. I just don't own the apparel for sub 62 F rides and don't wanna spend the money - these specialty sports are unnecessarily hoity toity with their gear pricing.

Yeah... I figure Brian and gang are about 10 years of apocalyptic climate change away from the mean sore-butt axis lifting N of their latitude, too -

Oh pleezy weezie with sugar on top ..

Kidding of course ... but yeah... it's not really "warm" down here either ...just sayn' I wouldn't trust that sagged look of the surface pressure pattern the GFS and company depicted for Monday, either... but suppose somehow that worked out ... it's misty mid 50s. How about the severe set up from the western Lakes to Missouri on Thursday ? Not just the pattern change but the threat layout switching gears here...

...Oh, BD in PSM ? New York City is doomed - end of discussion. "Yeah but ..." WRONNNNNNNG

Same page ... if we're talking personal druthers... 20" or 80 F ... pick... hahaha. But year, ...just anything but 20 days of 39 F gray mist ...or even variations there in -