Typhoon Tip

mmm I actually think that's a nod in favor of the other guidance ilk that threatened the EC ...with what remains to be seen... but, it's a nod in favor. It has the system coherently throughout the guidance' pressure pattern/evolution there That said, how often does one see a REX configuration in the Lakes and a EC/L.I. express routed TC ...weak or not?? Fascinating - that's us being S of the HC interface, no question...because typically that confluence would not be that far N to allow that evolution. Heh...be that as it may, it's a nodder -

Much better source... https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Yeah...I'd much rather submerge in a volume of water displaced only by my self and another human being's ass juices.... F' that ..I'll take my chances in the ocean and just not swim with the Darwinian brilliant insight of seal populations where messy eating is a veritable water chumming experiment -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2020072912-nine09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Does anyone ever wonder if NHC is ... cow-tied to the models ? Looking out along the expanse of the CV traffic route ...there's three eye ballers out there, but there is utterly no interest in one that's midriff or the the one that just emerged off Africa. Perhaps they have tools that flesh those out as just eternal TW thunderheads .... I don't know. But I've noticed that there is almost never an Invest designated without perhaps some number of ensembles doing it first - interesting. I wonder if one of these develops. They seemed to do pretty good; in that sense it's not a knock. I just find it curious that there's never a designation without modeling doing it first.

i'm kidding too - "trilogy" come on hahahaha yeah, thanks.

OH I've considered writing that mo'f'n book ... problem is, it's a trilogy

Thanks man ... I really am a loser - but at least this helps when in moments lost in gazes ...arresting in self-evaluation... haha Upon occasion as we glide through the gallorie of mediocrity the glint off our better angles may just catch the eye and cast colorful delusions in place of our despair. I guess that code for, " if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, you gotta baffle 'em with bullshit " ... hopefully I came up with something in between

yeah... little worried. I wrote the first half of the book 10 years ago, then put it down to engage in self-loathing for a number of years... That went its course and when I rejoined, you can tell a different tact -but, some of that was premeditated ...I mean, I wanted to write a hard core sci -fi... i.e, can't do that without some pricey syllabic counts. I.e., not lightsabers which is pretty much fantasy - which is fine. It has it's place. But, that does limit the bourgeois appeal to sort of niche the book, doesn't it. But the 2nd half of the book is more humane with the resolution thematic necessity and all that gunk

Hahaha... I wonder if that's a real sub-genre ... Sci-Fi erotica -nice...

speaking of writing guys ( girls... or whomever or whatever is identifying these days ..) ... speaking of writing, my novel is officially published. It's available at Amazon or b-store look ups. "Dominion" ...which is a used and abused title, but ... the publisher wanted it changed from "Dominia" - which I liked, as it was a reference to the dark magic universe borrowed from Russian fantasy ... but it was too obscure or some shit. anyway, it may not be anyone's speed in here as it marries Solid State Physics with Biology ( in very hard core headache worthy science fiction of what if..) to then emerge consequence of Spiritual implication, in total ... telling a unique A.I. story that that stems a goodly bit away from the tropes of modern fiction - so it is hoped... The book has that, plus Military... Romance... and is 300 pages... And no where inside the covers will we find anything having to do with weather other than describing the aridity and hot winds of the desolate Arizona air. Oh, I lied - there is those wind words, but also the word cumulonimbus ...believe it or not.... 100,000 words and I found a way to get that word in a novel that portends dystopia through the lens of Solid State Physics, Biology...and quasi- para-psychology... see - not totally unrelated... just sayn'

two aspect right quite ... 1 .. that would be a good pic, but ...the sky needs even less contaminated smears... those bright white toothy turrets work, but the sky is like uber-clear deep gasping blue in between. 2 .. probably shouldn't romanticize about me.. haha. kidding

I could see that evolving into a Bahama blue pattern ... It's another personal-ism so bite me - Basically, it's when the WAR doesn't edge - enough so - over eastern continent, and a weakness forms between it and the semi-permanent western N/A heat dome... The flow becomes S/SSW from the surface to 200 mb level east of the cordillera ( that's App. mountains axis) ... I "think" ( though am not certain ) that the huge PWAT laminar transport that occurs from the deeper subtropics all the way up ... provides so much condensation potential on the atmospheric particulates,...that together they rain/settle out impurities, rendering the sky so deeply blue it's like some fantasy world Korean pop video where rain drops are violet pieces of candy... Whatever microphysical and or other cause, you get some extraordinary visibilities with DPs of 76 ...all the way to Maine when that sets up. the impetus in awe being...it's hard to get vast visibility in high water content... but that sort of scenario achieves that somehow. I haven't seen this in the last couple of years tho... actually going back five or more ...I don't recall.. It used to happen almost dependably once or twice per summer, that set up ... in the 1980s through the 1990s, but since 2000...seems increasingly a rarefied synoptic ordeal. I think that is because the flow is being sped up - yup...yet again, because of the dreaded HC expansion. I've noticed even in summers we have velocity anomalies. I mean, yesterday, nearing Augie 1, ...we had CU turrets ripping so violently NE away from the buoyancy parcels that it was probably even inhibiting complete rain out of the convective cycle beneath them... I saw vil plumes go from eastern CT to S of NS in like an hour... what is that... 300 mb 200 mph geostrophic wind speed - jesus christ. Slow the f* down already... Anyway, if the total atmospheric maelstrom ...like everywhere, is having to balance that kind of momentum distribution, it's just mathematically/geo-physically ( probably demonstrable) that the wave structure/R-numbers would make scenarios less capable of N-S orientation in lieu of conserving all that rage pointing W-E. Just a supposition...but I think a good one.

They would have been better off if they had conceptualized, "...With the unexpected summer-season surging COVID-19 new cases being observed throughout the nation, primarily outside of the six-state New England, NY and NJ region(s), we have determined that the safest course of action is to limit travel as much as possible outside of our region of the country. " At least it would not be insultingly dimwitted - that product ...seemingly attempting to tap into the instinctual blood-red comes off as divisively fear-mongering and heavy handed - almost regime-like verboten in every sense of "Gestapoen" (Gestapo) rule - 'don't go there or else!' .... I suspect they are just short-sighted and over stressed ...but that's almost comical

Conspiracy theorists dabble in plausibilities while negating the probabilities - and that's what suspends their disbelief ... psycho babble feeds back, viola! they're out to get us - But, the Gov of Mass is not helping when they put out products that look like this. Yet, under the auspices of where are the 'low risk states' vs 'high risk states' ? This looks like a child did this - anything that's not us. Almost smacks like we're all just a bunch of beef-witted plebeians that are too stupid to "get it" so just "tell 'em not to go anywhere" I don't know if this is lazy or swamped ...probably the latter, but this really needs some sort of qualitative refinement .. It looks like a tongue-in-cheek prop behind "Weekend Update" on SNL. This makes no logical sense - they're doing rolling percentages and some other explanatory method that doesn't really fit "reality" ... Massachusetts ( for example...) has a population of just over 6.8 million, and a caseload that brings to ~0.4% of the population, and Alaska has a caseload to pop ratio that comes to .01% ....why are they high risk and Mass low risk? I'm sure there's something else to this but that's bad art/presentation for an increasingly skeptical and perturbed population that's about ready to suck on a f'n covid pipe out of frustration anyway!

yeah...but to elaborate on what should be glaring... every passing hour that there is no center or enough momentum therein, shades the potential of this thing... at this point, it looks like it's already into the eastern Caribbean gauntlet where most bambi's take a bullet - mm gee....looks like the conservative genesis approach of the Euro may have merited in this case ?

Somewhat interesting ... the 18z GFS appears to have partially capitulated to those GGEM ilk kind of sticks the Euro on an island by its self. I mentioned this earlier… The Euro has a history of being a bit delayed with initiation in the tropics wondering if this is one of those times

Kind of interesting ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined take a look at the fixated fog bank out SE of the Cape ...notice the southern edge seems to be permanently etched out of free space ?? I suspect that is demarcating a cold water/warm water interface, and everywhere that is fog-side is the colder SSTs ...

94/70 ... unfun

Going by the "10 after 10" adage ... we'd be 100 today here... 91 already ...and it feels it

No one asked... but that appeared to me to be a hybrid frontal triggered deal that sort of then relied upon MCS nocturnal sounding ... then suffered the typical diurnal morning decay. I've seen that alot ... when I first tuned in around 8 am that looked like it was going to rumble down Rt 2 and we never saw any clouds from that here in N. Middlesex Co in Mass... As the sun rose, the CB turrets stopped and you end up with mid level band that resumes a NE motion away from the previous right turn. But, you can see a subtle outlow trace left behind so perhaps trigger axis?

So bearing very little resemblance at mid level tropospheric layout and/or synoptic evolution ... those forcing governors manage to relay a TC ( assuming so...) up the EC similar to the track and speed behavior of Irene ... At least per some of the operational versions that are more coherent with development... Granted, the Euro and GFS are not impressed with this system and never have been. That said, even these guidances have come around ( a little bit ..) more polished with the developmental complexion of the would-be TC .. overnight. It may still yet be that the system is being under-done therein, pending a better detection of actually existing in the initialization grids for these global numerical models. Contrasting, these other guidance ... such as the stellar performing NAVGEM and the shimmering gallory of mediocrity museum-able GGEM...to mention the HWRF ( wooh, bestill our quaken dystopian lustful hearts) may simply be more physically sensitive to parametric variables - thus don't need as much to development matters further. Speculating.... Earlier in this thread I was of the school that there was no way to get an EC crawl and/or expresser given the season trends - and of course... proving the existence of metaphysical forces governing all... summarily the pattern begins to change toward one that would, only "seemingly" by pure coincidental timing. We'll have to see ...

Bahama blue pattern... Pixel showers with narrow turrets that blind windshields for thirty seconds and lower the backyard temp from 84/75 to 79/78 before resets... Sometimes training though -

Nothing

Really ... I've seen snow at least in the air in 5 of the last 8 Octobers, 3 novembers hosting winter storm warning verification - I guess if one can't wait a month post Sept one they're probably not lucid enough to pay attention to anyway ..