Typhoon Tip

With CPC PNA tconnectors all dropping wouldn’t shock me if that ends an abandoned middling trough sagging down the Appalachian Cordillera we end up in a Bahama blue pattern actually. There’s a seasonal transfer that also the last one that drew Isias up the coast was also at one point in the latter mid range a much deeper trough

So many failed crispies today. Tower after tall tower with sharp edges collapse just short Sick heat. tho. Unrelenting sear. T was 90+ by noon and still 90 until 6:30. Lot of hours at body temperature HIs

This heat wave was showing up in the ensembles for a while actually. it’s interesting in that the models balloon the hypsometric ridge ... after the highest heat has vacated. We’ll see if that really works out that way

yeah..the late day loopage out there seems that regions acquired some cylonic tendency in general, too - Also, it seems to me that NHC has a kind of quasi- reliance on the models too, for designating invests. I mean they should... otherwise, what's the technology for - but it does seem that if there isn't at least some ensemble support they tend to ignore these things... That, out there and this little whirl that actually, the GGEM from 12z does bear some semblance of a reflection of it now in the surface pressure pattern albeit weak. The one mid way did have a few runs a while back and go figure -

No one asked me ...but, not sure how to know given the present and recent trends in modeling. There's like .. zero trend. The american teleconnector agencies are mixed, with the CDC suggesting a warm middle latitude continent, while the CPC is tepid at best. Meanwhile, the operational models are flipping negative and positive in their anomaly distributions toward mid month every couple of runs. Three days ago, there was a more convincing warm look ... reasonably well shared among the guidance types. But has since sort of proven maybe was coincident noise. Probably just means normal ... boring but normal. A declaration that is a sure -fire way to get the models to throw up a firestorm heat wave on the next cycle, being the risk of course

There's an interesting small whirl some 400 miles E of Cape Canaveral FL that's been spinning for a three days there...it's presently obscured by its own CB flare-up ...but it's interesting - https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Wouldn't surprise me... We've been getting the Kelvin-Hemholtz wave folding at continental scales... favoring cold plumes plumbing S into the counter rotation of the synoptic "tuck" earlier and earlier... It's the same thing on the way out in spring, too, and why we've been getting cold april and mays. I'm surprised we haven't repeat '77 but it may just be a matter of time ? But as far as August, just look at the GGEM from 12z ...It's doing it already... that D10 look is winter, period... It runs our side of the world through a mammoth -AAM subtropical ridge look ... with an upside down pressure pattern - high over Maine - no heat because of east flow everywhere. Hypsometric anomaly with no lower tropospheric warm is another reason why we've been above average ..but never winning the global race in the warming stuff..different discussion ... Anyway, by D10 it like suddenly folds everything over and ends up with an 850 mb 0C plume within a meteorological stone's through of Lake Superior. D7's synopsis does not connote D10 is going to situate that way but it gets there almost sneakily .. The models do this at times, their extended ranges will tend to reflect what has been happening at seasonal scales - so there's probably some causal linkage between the virtual and the verification there. It's getting to two solid months past the solstice and autumn is already walking up the driveway at 70 N so ... Anyway, my seasonal forecast is for early cold and a snow threat or two from mid October to early December...followed by the compression of the geopotential medium and the gradient speeding up exotically everywhere and then winter's ruined until the flow relaxes next March and we get a couple spring threats or May packing pellet cold snaps... Rinse and repeat... until mid century, when and where winters as we know them at our latitude are a thing of that past - welcome to VA

Mid month looks warmer than normal. American teleconnectors suggest so...and the EPS mean almost has -AAM look to it with stretched super-synoptic wave scaling. Has a double node ridge expanded from Colorado to Bermuda on D10...and rising height through. Look at the D7-10 GGEM operational, with a mega ridge and E to SE BL flow everywhere east of Chicago and S of Ontario - ...pretty strong argument for an expanded HC. That's a trade flow on the continent - I mean...it's the GGEM so taken for what it's worth. Anyway, if not heat wave results out of that... probably hearing insect saws with shirts stuck to moist backs either way

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged... But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis. Just sayn'

Sorry to "test case" you - but, I was testing to see how this stuff is read/comprehended - It's not a knock on you or any one person. I could probably use a bit of audience sensitivity too - But, I think there's too much posting and too much stimulus and people in general, we can't process the information "correctly" ...instead, take a riskier assessment of what is actually said by focusing on key words perhaps... Like that sentence I just wrote. There is a double entendre there: one, there is a socio-technological commentary about the state of civility as a consequence in how all this social media and informatica is a motivational force... at the same time, it espouses some smoldering resentment that such "art" gets lost, and the artist suffers for trying - in lieu of immediate gratification.. blah blah It's everywhere in western ethos. And it's worsening with the simultaneously expose tsunamis that is being delivered at a faster right than people can lucidly and responsible categorize and appropriately evaluate - it's like an information shock... It's a fascinating premise for a Cyber Punk Sci-Fi novel -

I think these early tor warned cells are more associated with convection running up and over the top of the book-end frontal boundary that was, as of 13:31 still draiped west to east ...sort of "frontalysis" in nature ..through the area. They were potent with high end DBZ ongoing ... but waited/rather suddenly tripped tor warning when they were roughly between the Pike and Rt 2 And below this residual boundary the skies are brightening like a proper warm sector would... There's some quasi behavior though - this TC is going to be "latching" onto these frontal structure as it natively acquires more and more transitioning to baroclinic physics, and you can kinda .. sorta see how it becomes "like" a standard cyclone and that frontal fragment over SNE would become the warm frontal arm?? Well, warm fronts have nearly ideal helicity profiles... and those cells speed bumping over that shear profile might have caused their updrafts to close off Just a hypothesis... Because for one, they are too far removed from the TC to really be part of it's specific forcing. You didn't ask...I'm just offering up this analysis to everyone and using your post as a launch

No... I was meaning that without this tropical cyclone getting an assist from the jet structure aloft, it would/could be assumed to be a trivial ( means not a big deal/worth discussion) ordeal N of NYC. But, ... the Euro adds some question about it being stronger as a system as it moves N ... and I added reasons why - that layering of concepts may have been hard to follow? Anyway, we may need to wait on the behavior ( it is sometimes referred to as "now-casting" ) to see if the Euro works out.... This is like putting in an order at Dunkin Donuts. If you order off the menu...your fine. You get a yummy coffee with cream and sugar and a frosted donut in your bag. But, as soon as you add or subtract from the menu item, you end up with a mystery raffle ...as to what in the f you're going to be eating for breakfast 10 miles down the road. Just bustin' ballz but .. even if a stronger system/scenario, there's still other things that need to happen to get those hefty winds to mix down - probably need to refer to scienced method for those determinations.

I wonder if the current tor warned cells are really mechanically a part of the TC's approach ... There is a book end front in the area, one more typically found in the lower mid Atlantic climo ...and I noticed that these cells appeared to trip the warnings as they crossed over that boundary, where the frontal induced helicity is likely enhanced...

There are is a plethora of 'plausible' behaviors as this thing rotates up and absorbed into the eastern Lakes trough axis this evening. A narrow region east of roughly VT/CT could average between light to moderate breezes for a couple .. three hours, with a few rotators triggering warnings whisking through, but the pressure pattern weakens as it is pulling away and when that happens ( Irene did that) the air suddenly deadens eerily calm, ..7 to 9 pm, with a putrid 78 DP hanging in an air mass that feels metallic.. I-95 may be too far east for anything ...

I'm seriously curious ... "tip going big" - what exactly did you glean from that post I just made ?

You know ...I'm kinda coveting a private experiment through this synoptic cinema. I'm still secretly unconvinced this thing doesn't elevate much of it's impact potential ... I joked and referred to it as a 'see-thru frisbie' a couple nights ago. But I'm holding back because the Euro solution from last night - however - hearkened somewhat to Ryan H'.s salient tweet about the jet structures potentially coupling with the vestigial mechanics. This most recent run seems to have additional isobars (along standard intervals) added as it is absorbing into the large cyclonic envelopment over the N OV...and it's difficult to see that as being tropical in nature for what is forcing that, once this thing is passing NYC's ~ latitude. It seems it is getting an assist in "re" or depth maintenance as it accelerates N of the Del Marva here during the afternoon - going by the 00z run... I don't see another reason for that ... If it wasn't for that, this would probably decouple from the lower troposphere below a weakening threshold and pressure pattern normalizing below restoration's ability to overcome the BL resistance much more than 10 mi inland from the coast(s). And it'd be TS warning with 20mph breezes and heavily tilted Bahama towers.. So...what is fascinating here is that this may end up producing a synoptic wind pulse from that idiosyncrasy alone, but not "really" be a TC at that time. Here's a forecast, cloudy with a 90% chance of misconception of what is really being experienced, in lieu of this din of oohs and ahs ...where if you try to cut in and explain the truth, everyone blink twice, turns around and re-engages the oohs and ahs..

Because these are Americans, and no amount of lead time is sufficient to enlighten beef-wits as to an apparent risk. Plus, more time is better to defend against all the others, hordes of litigates. That's why... In an ideal world, they tell everyone an hour before your arc arrives, ...people en masse take a 30 minute time out, then emerge unscathed ... understanding that damage to property is otherwise a part of a dynamic planet. Clean up where necessary ... rejoice dodging the bullet elsewhere, and everyone sings Kumbaya.

These/those results are difficult to forecast. Some LCL scenarios do...some don't... But, the shear profiles being what they are, that is interesting whether there is a coherent TC or not. A few posts ago I mused to Scott or someone that I bet the Logan sounding was already looking tropical WRONG I didn't realize there was a weak cold front passing through ... We seem to have temporarily laid in some dry air... BDL and ORH DPs are in the low 60s at ASOS which I was shocked ... It's actually nice out...not torrid or humid unless standing in the sun but that's different. Anyway, this frontal tapestry will either have to wash out or lift back N and will given the modeling ...so that does also enhance a bit of warm frontal positive rotation kinematics... That's separate from the TC or TC remnants that Ryan tweeted howester... Perhaps there are two period to watch...

I like Ryan's observation of the exit region of that massive jet structure that is both velocity and directionally diffluent as it fans over central/NNE... Really, anything that has UVM that happens to intersect that region near the Del Marve to the NY Bite region is likely going to get a significant upward assist. It's an interesting point I had not considered. I was thinking this system was purely embedded in a large synoptic transport pattern ... laminar and deep in the troposphere from the Bahamas all the way up. And that being so weak to start, then translating partially eclipsing the coast as it gains latitude - if it were up to these factors alone, I would definitely be averse to the notion of this being much of a player nearing 40 N... I'm not sure how that fairly unique circumstance he points out with the jet/larger synoptic fluid mechanical layout may feedback. If this thing doesn't get more develope/re-developed profile soon, though,...I almost wonder if that set up isn't a weak spinner swarm anyway -

Yeah the Euro's specifics on this were abysmal ...particularly when it was 3 and 5 days back ... comparing those run times to where we are now... no doubt. Still ( and it may just be dumb luck! ) the Euro's never liked this thing. This thing has never liked 'this thing' Those two observations = the same thing... a paltry result. That's all I'm saying - That aside ... we have to remember that the Euro isn't a bad model ...hello. And, just because it kept this thing on life-support too long and had to finally "find it" in the physics eventually ...doesn't mean it will be necessarily wrong going forward.

The models were forecasting the increasing shear though - that specific aspect should not come as a surprise... I mean, if one chooses to use the models. Despite that, why then did some models attemp "re" intensification ( more like intensification at all...) as it was moving parallel or on the coast? After acceleration commences... that might be a response ( internal physical processing) in the models of having said acceleration lower the storm-relative shear. This sort of 2ndary profile sustaining if not some regain after recurve is observed at times in the past, particularly those system running out SE of NS over the G-string en route to England ...sort of collocated ... They could be moving along at 45 mph at that point, and regaining cane 1 status... I've seen this a lot.

Mm.. in terms of "relative error" ..I'd have to give the nod to the Euro tho - so far and overall The NAVGEM - which ...shouldn't exist as a "model" ...but just to make the point - has had a couple runs into the Category 2 range of EC abrasion all the way up. Which is intuitively laughable anyway, but using that as the upper bound... the Euro on the other hand, while being just an open wave at times taking this into the Gulf Of Mexico, does sort of win by virtue of just being weak in over all integrity ... This thing has had a low shear, high oceanic heat content since it was 800 mi E of the Windward Isles ...and it's just coughed like an old Jalopy all the way up ... Sometimes these things take a bit of reanalysis to figure out - Whatever the reason, the Euro seems to get credit in my mind for general reticence to commit to this thing...

Oh, the official guidance designation is over land ... at our latitude ?!

Exactly ...my sentiments. I am not sure what those modeling/wind products are based upon - I assume some sort of raw gridded imputs off the various sigma levels, then adiabats as a start... blah blah... but you just get the "feel" looking that decompressing pressure pattern and losing standard intervals so rapidly in many guidances ( not to mention, that behavior fits this system's history)... while only being 990-ish in the first place. I've seen people play Golf with wind prospects like that. I joked last night that this thing might glide over like a decoupled/detached see-through frisbie ... It floats over head and people look around vaguely aware for hearing it go by - I don't know...right now it's a busted blown out ravioli ... In fact, though it is probably just an artifice of hiding in the hi res vis loops, it almost appeals at that vaneer like the SW quadrant isn't even closing into the arc anymore. This system is a single curve wind band on the NE quad... just at first glance.

Yeah... agreed - give 'im credit for trying, tho. Heh. but yeah no this is a very deep barotropic air mass... I bet the Bahama sounding over Logan at this point. In fact, I might have mentioned this the other day, that there were semblances in the runs for a "Bahama Blue" pattern ...and well, this is essentially it. Or at least it will be 24 hours from now. I have also opined in the ancient past how it never seems to be that a TC is actually around in the exit region of that jet down S but rats bid if we don't actually have that circumstance ...sort of. Usually, it's a lucky timing issue with a transient trough over WV and a retreating ridge the captures ... Carol and Hazel..etc Donna I think all were not really BB patterns but "got lucky" ?? I think 1938 might have been a late season BBer based on testimonials and accounts of a "...Week of sultry humid weather..." before hand but who knows. Anyway, probably it's just a matter of getting two rare phenomenon to land on the same date, ....like it's twice as rare. Oh if one is a dramatist they prefer it to be a category 3 hurricane and not one COVID coughing its way up the coast both too slow and two week and technically ... not even on the right trajectory to even remotely justify 30 f'n pages of coverage ... but, what's the alternative - right But with ...whatever form this thing has as it moves N, it will be anomalously embedded all quadrants inside a rather sub-tropical transport all the way up. The phase transition may be delayed over climo because of that. This is mostly going to be a failed momentum in the first place, then losing warm water as it fringes land. Even the Bite waters are nearing 80, ...albeit shallow, but really... That's a 'nother thing...I've often wondered if a Cat 4 ever turned the corner in these modern times ...while it is 80 F SST at buoy/station 44025 ... As a tremendous stroke of luck to civility I suppose, the climo for LI express is after Sept 5th ...when we've already shed 5 to 7 F off those shallow numbers.