Typhoon Tip

Ugh yeah... who knows. I do know my spring climo around here as we all do and gossamer warm layers out ahead of these kind of blue deals isn't that uncommon in spring. interesting

yeah, that too - calibrations not withstanding... I'm gonna go ahead and assume it's 33.1 or something... The snow really is flitting around like light and gingerly ...not 'wet' in nature. I mean we'll see how long it last...just at onset here. Looks like January from the window

all these home stations in Wunder have it 36 to 39 within a couple clicks of mi casa yet the snow aggregation is of the mid-small variety... This must be a very narrow ( typical for spring ) warm layer at the bottom.

we have medium small flakes here in Ayer in the last 10 minutes...

I'm not sure .. keep us posted, I'm curous. I'm looking around at event entry T/DP spreads, and knowing the thickness intervals, and the synopsis of this closing off centers south ... mm, the only thing going for this as a rain event is climo- but ...we know what that means. Anyway, I curious how this works out because this 'looks' per these observations like a straight up snow event to me...say HFD-NW RI to I-95 eastern MA...with dollar sized cat paws at Logan

Testament to the marginal nature of this... decimals mean 10" of wet snow vs 4" of slush vs cat paws, and that's probably within the technological margin for error ...

well... when has the "Kochera/2" rule ever been different anyway -

'What' is/was a trope that is commonly used in parlance to signify, 'think about it' You're question was unusual - and outmoded frankly. You didn't state 'why' you asked it...in a vacuum it made less sense base on what is both proven and common wisdom. People don't know what they are looking at with aerial vantage and information flux so they attack - the bottom line is, any D.C. outdoor event is safer than any such engagement indoors. So if officials were 'hunted' that is because 'people' have too much access and don't know how to analytically take it in.

what ... ? no... warm weather spreads animal behavior - that's consistent in human interactivity as well... Cold weather drives people inside as a sociological rule, and that is a incubation paradigm that favors/fosters virulence by giving pathogens precisely what they need: contact... There is no comparison between multiple individuals concentrating their bio-phage inside among one-another, and a bunch of individuals in an open field with open air circulation offering ventilation... eating barbeque on paper plates...

I'm so buckin' for this... I hope they land on their seasonal total, right down to the decimal, just so we have to give the year a passing grade. Anything worse is biased and personal, proving this entire engagement is a waste of time and that we are all neurotically lost in one's own tormented bs... That's more dystopian than any blizzard or Global pandemic, too - some might call that hell. hahaha

Unfortunately ... I don't want them ... not that anyone cares - But, I'd really rather 80 F weather drive the diaspora of people out among the openness ... you know, spread out ... so virus-choking healthfulness gives peace a f'n chance.

Seems like getting an event to actually happen this time, the trial and error game of this last winter ( despite now being spring...), finally does. That was the gist of my conversation with outside Mets over the winter, was the striking neggie interference pattern at all scales, ... damping events, period. It was much less an issue of available cold. There were two tendencies ...well, 'persistence' may be more apropos: systems modulating W; systems modulating weaker. These were the correction vectors that took place ... in every case ...Since the Dec 2019 event. I strongly suspect gradient saturation and velocity were the main culprits ..as I've championed the cause all along. This has been a large scale negative interference pattern pummeling the mid and shorter scales... pretty much unrelenting, the whole time...the whole way. Now, the flow is relaxing as it typically does at the tail end of the season, and we have a chance - go wonder - for a 'well-behaved' cyclone in the models to actually f'ing take place. It all seems really simple to me: take away the limiting factor of a crushing +AO and an unmitigating Hadley Cell also squeezing into the mid latitudes, and things can happen/parlay. About a month ago I posted that I thought we had a chance to recoup on the season when the pattern relaxed.. The EPO came right on schedule... - we'll have to see if we can get a -NAO transience in here...Some oper. GFS runs have been trying to flag that. Anyway, still two events in the pipe line for this week, which is a testament to the better cyclone vitality of this season ending advantage, they have been remarkably stable in all guidance ( save for details).

Nahh it’s gonna be right sorry. Winter sucked but oh well

Nah...it'd be so glop wet it'd fall off in slush gloops before it can weight anything to tension - I've seen that before.. Like 4:1 silver snow ... the trees bend even a little and the burden slides off blat rains Your really don't want it more wet than ...I dunno 7 or 8:1

agreed... but of course, predicated on the assumption of details here Despite the kangaroo court ruling the Euro's pretty good at D4 so -

I just saw the Euro ... heh, I think that verifies decimals ( crucially ) colder..

More of an observation in concept here ... but, both the Monday and the later Thur/Frid systems "default" the thicknesses warmer afterward - I see this routinely in spring, where the wave of low pressure - in total - acts more like a warm front; even if there are closed isobars, the region ends up with a shot a mid 50s or even 60 immediately when the sun comes out. The one later in the week on this GFS run has like 0 backside anything and in fact, 6 hours after the cloud part there is 552 dm thickness contour bifurcating the area, with a SW flow ahead of the next front. This in total does also fit in more with your observation about these becoming more WAA/open wave-like.

Classic "farmer's gold" spring blue - There are actually two events in this manifold/pattern ...the one later Monday, then again almost even a redux look toward the end of the week. Neither event looks ( to me ) as though they can't overcome warmth and move to an isothermal sounding snow type. Typically in the spring, these mid and extended range cyclones with marginal QPF type spread out over their NW arcs ...they will tend to end up 0 C around our latitude. I have seen so many + 1 to even + 3 commaheads end up 'chuting at -.1 C. Anyway, given the synopsis in hand I'd be willing to guess based on that experience/education that Monday's ordeal ends up isothermal in a significant region that probably even flips the SE edge of present ptype guidance to pillows. The other aspect/con ...other than Scott's salient observation that we are still in the progressive eternity apparently ...is that this ever so slightly looks more IB/warm advection in type on the 00z runs suite. It's really almost more of an impression ...but if that unfolds more in that direction, I'm not sure isothermal characteristic would be the ultimate saturation thermal sounding type. And of course that means an eventual over to cold rain in that scenario. It's actually nice to have some weather to discuss ...

Good point!

Perfectly fair assessment of when it is okay to 'apply biases' and when something only thinks it is - agreed

Yeah, one should not look at a 120 hour UKMET and take thermal fields verbatim - It's an interesting track and factoring known biases, the UKMET's decent too

looked okay to me - but thanks :/

This could not be a better year for irony if we get like an April version of 1888 and everyone goes above normal snow - oh man... I hope that happens

UKMET's decent too Will was mentioning a few days ago we'd might want to watch the 24th and indeed, it was in many ensembles then, prior and since... It's probably a rare thing to see this particular threat be inside of 120 hours in this particular year - ha!

It might be interesting to see the 24 hour DP curve. IT appears there may be a 'hockey stick' abrupt rise ... this meso-beta scaled low that brought the steady cold rain this morning is helping to delay the warm front - what's new. But looking upstream beneath the warm front that extends from N. Missouri to the Del Marva the whole region is unilaterally soaked in 65 F DPs and that's modeled to bodily foist up here. When/if the warm front does finally mix down, that might be trip!