Typhoon Tip

Careful bringing antithetic empirical data into an "everything is awesome" support group... I think that's all probably closer to the reality across the NE region of the United States, too - regardless of how ever mental/emotional stability are so keyed into atmospheric states that we like to create lies to allay our suffering. haha! Heh.. I tell ya... It's hard out there for a realist. Yeah, come seven or so days from now, if that model blend pulls off a +2 SD warm ridge on the MA while ironically only getting even more cruelly cool and chilly in New England, a marginally permissible spring gets 86 heaped in a hurry. Right into the annuls of rectal glue -

It's an interestingly variable fauna/green-up sequencing this particular go of it. I have shrubs that are a solid couple of weeks or more late ... including forsythias, while the broad leaf sugar maples are cracking buds and maybe a 1/3rd flower protrusion ... That's about right on time for the ten-year average down here along Rt 2. Yet, the red maples really only sheen over in spring rust last week, perhaps ten days behind schedule. Meanwhile, my eager silver maple, which leafs early ( and is also usually the last to let go in the autumn) is very stunted. **** D8 through 10 : ... there's a long-term sort of base-line probability for snow in May's. It's obviously going to be unevenly distributed around latitude and/or variation in altitude...etc... Excluding those local studies and just considering the normalization for a moment, those probabilities also vary from May 1 being > than May 30 of course too. I'm not sure what any hypothetical, regionally normalized percentage layout exactly looks like, but... I imagine its on the order of a 15 or 20% chance any given spring of observing a late snow before May 10... perhaps declining to 10 % by the 20th... down to virtually 0% by the 30th, if just looking at 100 years, tallying up the occurrences, then dividing by n-years to provide the linear average for those 10 day intervals. 15% for the first 10 days may arguably seem high to some people; I don't know how folks conceptualize numbers but 15 is low ( firstly ). But, since the year 2000 ... I have seen snow inordinately often compared to the first half of my own existence. At least in the air 1/3! ... if not silvery car top slush or even more in grass. Something has changed or is changing things, whether for better, worse, all or some, aside. Whether these occurrences are caused by a greater scaled, pan-systemic change, or perhaps are mere perturbations local to our hemispheric scope/scale aside, we're seeing an up-tick in the late snow occurrence phenomenon... (I've also noticed this in Octobers, as well). It does bring into some question the total usefulness of 'linear averages' ...when climate is in a state of flux. hm. In any case, having to include the last 19 years of data, does tend to skew said averages higher because seeing snow in May some 6 of those years is bigger than the previous 50 year mean. The reason why I'm wading the reader through this mire of verbs and nouns and grammar during an era when Tweeting has twitted down people's will to really do so ... is because between D7 and 11 in there, ... probably adds a few percents over said hypothetical base-line. But, I could have just said that - agreed.. However, the other purpose to this is the implicit idea that "something has changed," and well.. here we are again with this book-end (whether spring or fall), either too late or too early snow chance that seems to be out there, in the charts, as however > than the mean probability. It's really just weird. One almost can looking forward to 'not having to wait much longer' in late August, ...if only half sarcasm. And April showers? no longer should automatically imply May flowers...as these late cool and white snaps do the darling buds of may a distinct disservice. This -NAO appears to mean business. It's also encompassing ( blocking/influentially...) more so in the western limb across present modeling... And with the flow relaxed overall ..that sets up that unique 'cold packet' transport plausibility, where smaller masses can be injected in and not homogenized by some high velocity maelstrom. It's basically powered fluke, just add water, incarnate. So, we'll see ... This has to inherently be very low probability in general ... it's just that relative to other May 1 through 10's ... that in-general chance would appear higher than base-line.

Hey ...look everybody ... Kevin found his marbles? Maybe now lucidity will follow -

People in/and of society are now melodrama junkies due to now decade(s) of over stimulation of horrors and dystopian wonders constantly being bombarded - ... whether they realize it or not, "life" seems boring now ... too boring, when relative quiescence of the ordinary everyday leaves them strangely unsatisfied... So, unconsciously ... people are reactionary to help fulfill that void(s) - This is probably no different than any elevated cluster of thunderstorms ... ( called thundershowers back in the day when it did this...), where circa 1982 ... people amble across mall parkinglots with umbrellas open ... while a raging meso disks it way over top of good old fashioned putrid New England spring atmosphere ... completely unaware. But now! Look out... we got the entertainment of hair raising terror at every angle.

fair 'nough ... but, the warm push is ( ironically ) probably greater than the modeling predicted 'above the BL' ...which makes it moot for sensible weather but probably an important factor for sustaining cores above ... Funny, it's like skipping a stone off a pond -

Depends what we mean by 'shouldn't'

what's a spring without elevated mesos over a jammed up the bum bd air mass ... they need a better emoticon for what's going on -

NAM LI's were under -5 on the 12z ... I was sort of jaw gaped when I saw that... Interesting. Yeah...agree with the floated sarcasm - stability N of the warm boundary should limit couplets in the BL ...

no

This sometimes happens... You're scratching your head 'cause the tele's might be signaling one thing that the operational blend doesn't really agree with. Then, the tele's change to match going the other way ... lesser usual, as the mean usually precedes the pattern modes... Like now, piece of shit pattern appears more likely, despite those tele's Up thru yesterday ...the GEFs blend was offering some limited hope for eastern ridging to prove more robust than the operational guidance version, pretty much across the board, were willing to give into. They were all ablating (and still are ..) the top of the ridge with a steady diet of middling and smaller scaled perturbations...if not just laying a circular sander of N/stream westerlies to grind away at it ...either way, preventing a warm up... Now, the teleconnectors have 2' of snow for everyone on June 10 ...so enjoy your summer - which of course is code for 42 F soothing rain -

Probably narrowly missing substantive positive temperature departures D6 through 11 to rub it in... Tele's becoming less reliable ( seasonally ) as the typical disruption to r-wave spacing during the warm season takes over the hemisphere ... It's still early though. ... sort of akin to listening for the faint radio signals from the Voyager probes as they are presently nearing and/or passing through the solar heliopause - the amorphous boundary that separates the "bubble" of the sun's influence from truer interstellar space. Still sorta can be heard... There's a western trough, eastern ridge couplet signaled ... To varying degrees and polish, showing up in the operational runs, but the CDC would argue for a robuster ridge than the operational runs are willing to construct during said time frame. They are all hell-bent on ablating and beating higher heights down with a resistant N/stream. Consequentially .. there are episodes of confluent mid levels rollin' over eastern Ontario and Quebec, which would of course ... KO any hope of warm air succeeding anywhere N of roughly mid Jersey ( most likely ...) Meanwhile, pervasive +11 to +15 C 850s fills those regions to the sough - we call this the 'na na na-na pattern' Meh... can't say that general agonizing look won't happen - this is after all the rub-it-in and make it actually worse than it really has to be by abutting utopia up against our torture cauldron, season anyway... Commiseration aside, the CDC behavior with the various domain spaces would actually support a robuster ridge in the east, so we'll see... Sometimes with ridges in mid/late spring they can suddenly balloon - this smacks as one of those times where that's possible ... if perhaps battling climate.

And just to be clear ... that's sardonic by a goodly measure - I just find the general "everything is awesome!" tonality to be a bit weighty at times.

Heh ...eastern MA and SE NH... RI and eastern ME got screwed period... We go from this piece of utter shit whirling cool pool to a cold front over night and bona fide chilly feel tomorrow, having been effectively robbed entirely for now four days soon to be five with April proving why it is a space and time that is the sin of god himself

mm.. replace the mid and high deck cyclonic whirl with sun-destructive pancake as well tho... But yeah, it looks like come early afternoon the sky will be improving(ed) considerably...

just in the last 1.5 hours worth of loop there is suggestion of western arc/rim advancing east.. . Seems it'd have to with the Lakes stuff moving into western NY and PA to kick this into motion perhaps -

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

classic 20 or even 30 F heat sink between HFD and Logan...

It's always interesting to me how that atmosphere seems to mirror the Labrador Current so often - ... as illustrated by Steve's repost of the NAM 3-KM 2-m temperatures. It's seen often enough to suggest in the on-going planetary physical machinery of all, a tendency for both fluid environments to move back SW around these ~ latitudes and longitudes. Not all the time or at every time do they happen concurrently ... But as a kind of rest state, the LC flows back SW along the Maritime waters of eastern Canada ...terminating beneath the Gulf interface E of the Del Marva at all times; whereas, the atmosphere finds any way at least excuse imaginable to do the same thing... but often enough to be an indigenous trait of this region. Both pile cold. Whether by sea, up against land. By air over the eastern New England dumpster. It just seems to be a topographic circumstance of our location that is a negative node for fluid systems - like being born with a learning disabillity and having to work extra hard to ever be as warm as the other kids... heh.

That satellite presentation and loop cannot more elaborately illustrate New England sore-butt season...

This spring is a gem compared to a lot of springs, period. In fact strike that - most springs. Of course it all depends ( subjectively ) on what one considers 'bad' vs 'good' . But going by the leading sane consensus ... bad = cold and wet. You guys have a charmed existence this year. Not bad ...hahaha Some of y'all need to suffer reality about as badly as it has not been. Perhaps then you'll appreciate how good it's actually been ... so far. There are years when it's 80 early and often and those are like 1 :: 20 year seasons... 70s early and often perhaps 1 :: 7 or 1 :: 10 The rest of those years divvy up between 40s, 50s, with cold water. Placing this one in that rank it's probably a 1 :: 5 year as far as crippling persistent in sucktitudes as to challenge the very endurance of man ... Part of the problem about New England sore-butt season is that it's ever nice at all? I mean, if it was low tide cool and clammy all the time and never deviated... we'd probably actually grow so accustomed to it that we're fine. But we'll pop 74 ... 77 ... 82 ... BD and get ass wrecked for 10 straight days... and the set up makes the latter prospect utterly terrifying.

Well... we've gone and done it again .. Despite this, "Globally, this was the second warmest March in the 140-year record, with a temperature departure from average at +1.06°C (+1.91°F). Only March 2016 was warmer at +1.24°C (+2.23°F). March 2019 also marks the third time (2016, 2017, and 2019) that the March global land and ocean surface temperature departure from average surpasses 1.0°C (1.8°F). The March 2019 global land and ocean temperature tied with January 2016 as the fifth highest monthly temperature departure from average for any month on record (1671 months). The 20 highest monthly temperature departures from average have all occurred since 2015, with March 2016 having the highest monthly temperature departure in the 1671-month record at +1.24°C (+2.23°F)." If you focus on the middle latitude regions of U.S./southern Canada ... there is a relative cool offset result/heat sink: Some 2/3rds of the monthly results stemming back almost 20 years worth have demonstrated a relative negative in the vicinity ... This has at times been more sensible/meaningful...other times, less so. But, 2/3rds is a substantial majority... It seems that in this GW era ... there is an emergent tendency to make N/A a kind of dumping ground. There have been offset hot periods, too... 2/3rds is not 1/1 ... But for some reason... over the last couple of decades of this apparent acceleration of the GW observation, this has not been evenly distributing; less expression of warm departures compared to other areas of the worlds locally. If March seemed chillier than a Globally Warmed world, there might be some at least minimal empirical data to support that. Here's the thing ... March could have been + at all major climo sites and still been "blue" relative to the whole. That's the rub here in how this "missing out" aspect has been playing - we really are not missing out much ( or may not be ); still, I wonder when we'll get a crimson paint month if ever from the GL to NE...

we hope... heh. yeah, some thinning... It's about the best hope for getting real sun 'cause this axis of holiday COC shaft is in no hurry to stop pumping into the area with this stagnant slow scenario -

Oy man... this satellite cannot be more annoying for those that have/ ... perhaps "had," lawn plans surrounding Easter. Which, is a gamble at this time of year anyway - but... New Jersey is the big winner! Their in that dry-slotting with little real CAA and tall mid Auggie equivalent sun sear baking away... Meanwhile, cross about a 2-mile margin of sky-time and it's 50s and drizzly murk with that conveyor now running over top the primary frontal zone that slipped off shore overnight. That puts SNE on the rail-tracks for that moisture freight. I suppose it's really no different than the typical reason(s) to hate-on April's in general... This variation of it, however, is one where a gyre's death flops happen to be centered southwest of New England rather than over Nantucket. So consider ourselves lucky as spring enthusiasts, that we were at least 70-ish the last two days ... could have been worse.

Seeing as you asked me and covet my unique perspective on the cosmos... eh hm You're weather-related entertainment spectrum down there goes like: convection in spring into early warm season --> heat with a side of heat --> soul crushing boredom --> ice storms ( though a rarefied snow cannot be ruled out...), ...start over again... with obvious and occasional exceptions to every rule... Basically, take our weather, add 10 F to all climo points, boom - which concomitantly does offer more convection dystopia, but unfortunately ... less snow cocaine to feed neurosis-evident poster mania

Upon seeing this kind of photographic art that's either meant to hint and inspire winter's eternally alive and strong, or does so by accident I cannot help but think ... if it were not for a mere 1,500' -worth of ambient geological elevations, it's that close to not being serviceable as an impression at all. And it strikes how nature is really like that.. You could be abutted right up against the proverbial fire, and not know it. Tornadoes sweep through neighborhoods blowing houses clean off their foundations, while the next door neighbor's window sill flower pot is left unscathed. It really seems any system being observed holds out in it's characteristic nature, ...never yielding or giving in to the adjacent realm, however near. Until the 'boundaries' are crossed ... and then the new paradigm bares little or no resemblance ... Vanquished by time and space, the former only to return by fleeting familiarity. Kind of like that... Yet, we draft up boundaries that demarcate and define the world around us. The difference between tropical and extra-tropical cyclones ... say. When the truth is... those differences are only defined by the separation along a spectrum. You have hybrids... hybrids of hybrids... and on and so forth. Maybe the reality is, nature's boundaries are absolute; the boundaries that man contrive are imperfect - I like that.