Typhoon Tip

Anatomy of a "Sonoran Heat Release" ... Walter Drag coined this expression back ... Jesus, I wanna say around 2000 give or take, but I really like this turn of phrase because it does very nicely label the synoptic mechanism for how excessive/'BIG HEAT' gets acutely discernable and transmitted across the mid latitudes of North America. Below is a still frame animation of the 850 mb temperatures, which rather nicely elucidates how this type of heat expulsion from preprep synoptic west, is identifiably different than the background climatology of standard middle latitude summer warmth ... Typically there is a synoptic trapping and huge insolation charging of SW regional air mass within a lower theta-e environment; this concomitantly/physically expands heights and primes for hypsometric mixing should this air get ejected, where higher geometries or conserved... The soundings over those regions begin to represent that air... Elevated Mixed Layer is a marker, but the 800 mb temperatures in general might show surpluses.. then, a larger scale perturbation in the flow 'dislodges' segments of it and get pulled out.. Typically this happens because height falls near or descend through the Pacific Northwest, and down stream there is an establish mid level veering in the larger circulation eddy. IF/when said air is then ejected, but then happens to time well with an anomalous mid level hydrostatic heights, the hypsometric heights are then getting a positive feedback on ability to expand diurnally. Tall boundary layers with very long surface potential temperature adiabats results... and this 'synergistic' sort of results in numbers that exceed the typology of summer heat for regions ..usually extending Iowa to New England/Mid Atlantics... Below is showing how this phenomenon typically evolves in the 850 mb level... From left to right .. top down, that's D6, 7, 8 and 9 of the 00z operational Euro ... Note, the last panel has a re-enforcing mass/plume ejection that is backloading the initial continental conveyor (C/o "Tropical Tidbits" https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/): Here is the day-9 500 mb hydrostatic/heights layout for/during that ending frame above: This is about as obscene and anomalous as I have ever seen one of these modeled ... in a vacuum, regardless of any man-handled and beef-witted assumptive mangled surface temperature products there may be in existence ...this would support 100 to 105 temperature readings in most urban and/or climate favorable locales or where not available to modulation from any local offset physical circumstances... extending across a mammoth geographical area of the CONUS... ORD/DET/BUF/NYC/BOS ... DCA-PWM ... the Tenn Valley to Missouri would all suffer excessive and historic/high risk heat criteria in the 2-meter. And what would make this particularly bad is the synergistic feed-back from it being multi-day where the previous diurnal cycle services the next with an improved setting for heating across successive periods... I have lower confidence issues with this happening right now... mainly because the seasonal trend to build larger 500 mb hydrostatic anomalies in the D6 to 10+ range has been dominating the guidance tenor as spring has aged into summer, and thus far, few or not have managed to transpire ...or not nearly with the same panache and resonance as these guidance depictions. What has corrected routinely, is a NW flow adaptation as these latter ranges become more midrange proper...then verifying as NW/confluence circumstantially driving fropas and 'backdoor' type corrections in the lower troposphere east of OH/Kentucky ~ longitude. Having said that... I am not 0 confidence either ha... seriously, the GEFs gave me pause... That is an extraordinary appeal from that hugely ballasted mean - in that it has more perturbed members ( I believe ... check that -) but to have that sort of ginormous 594+ isohypses closed contour ...situated "reasonably" well/collocated over the same region as the EPS ...should at least send a flag. I just don't know about the extremeness...and given to the fact that we are nearing the climatological apex of summer anyway, ... if we mute this by some reasonable conserved approach: (seasonal trend + individual model bias + typical D8 uncertainty)/3 ..it might = something less obscene and probably more like a standard heat wave. Meanwhile, we have advanced climatology/formally scienced papers being disseminated about these sort of events becoming more commonplace, both in N--S amplitude and W--E duration ( symbolically...). I have personally noted that in recent summers, North America ( particularly eastern) has been spared these sort of "special" heat events that are synergistically over achieving ... The last time we had a run in with this higher tier exceptional heat expression, and had it actually succeed from extended modeling detection all the way into verification, was the big heat event in 2011 that ended with the historic Derecho that ripped from NP-MA in July that summer...

Yeah I don’t think any of that is convincing frankly ... Seeing heat domes and ridges in that time range all season long and push comes to shove we started eroding them back southwest with buckshot excuses to do so. Maritime unrelenting permanent neg fixture… But If this time is different eventually one of them is gonna work out I guess we got a week to f! It up or get it done.

Why would it be frowned upon ?

252 hrs is convincing ...?

The virus won’t last forever… Don’t tell industrialized mass media’s unscrupulous information manipulation or a society that’s addicted to information drama… But eventually there will be no pandemic whether that happens sooner or later there will come that time

Vs tippy ?? Wtf not sure what I got roped into there but I guess game on ...

This whole thread a needs matter-energy replicator like in star trek, that can turn it into a baseball bat,...that then bludgeons Kevin whenever he impulsively dooms us with drought fears because a single blade of his lawn's grass turned to straw

I was wondering when someone would start the very necessary thread called, "Drought Ending Rains and Menial Convection"

I refuse to open Wiz's thread, "Drought ending Rains and Severe Convection" until such time as he removes the impudence of the word 'severe' before convection in that title.

Yeah in all seriousness it's pretty clear this takes place...particularly in summer. But I think you're right also in that the models might tend to "smooth" things...and then that sort of falsely intuits a longer wave length/R-count ...and the summer is just too nebular to expect that to A ...hold in the runs, or B ...exist.. haha. but you know what mean. But sometimes it happens... the big heat in 1995 and 2012 ...these had mammouth long r-wave lengths with Sonoran expulsion caught up in an anomalous STR.. What's funny, NE was spared big heat in either one of those... I'm almost thinking 4 days of 100 heat ...bookended by 2 days of 90s at either end has a longer return rate than a 1978 blizzards... if that can geophysically happen at all around here.

may experience with that ... it'll be pretty tight and nucleus'ed ... it'll be a rain ball with thunder maybe ...and it'll clear by 10 am with 77 F DPs and temperatures laboring to make 85 by 5 pm... with some crispies glaciating late, but sun and bermuda blue skies in the interim.

The impetus of that sardonic take there....Kevin, is that it never appears to actually take place... So if Dendy said that than all do accolades on his stunning achievement in model nuances

This might be the longest sustained historic heat signal only existing between 200 and 384 hours that has ever persisted in the GFS ever - haven't checked specifically ... but it seems road surfaces have been melting and railways buckling in that time frame since about February 20th

why would that be trolling exactly ? lol ... people can't be expected to dance around others delusion of personal sensitivity space because some fact of reality happens to not agree - it's not trolling .... it's called, 'tough shit' haha

you didn't ask but what plagues the western civilities of the world is too much affluence ... the thing that obfuscates ...or obscures that factor is that affluence is still not ubiquitously distributed ... The haves still have disproportionately, above fairness, more than the have nots... that is a fairness issue(s) and tend(s) to be misconstrued as destitution, certainly mediated and pressed that way - but it's a faux read. there is enough resource and access to survivability that the vast majority now has the luxury to turn attention away from levers and donkey health, into ideology's preoccupation and that quickly becomes the new essence to life...thus, an the obsession, and survival is quasi transformed into a life-or-death struggle there.. Some longish words there... but if a carrington event turned off the lights and started truly correcting the population downward despite all efforts to prevent the chaos... like this pandemic will ultimately prove a sensationalized failure... people would begin to sober up real, real fast as to what is important. suddenly that democrat...republican...islamic martian from the planet 'differentthanme' that might be able to feed me if i'm willing to show a modicum of understanding and compromise, suddenly becomes a strangely more attractive offer over some delusion of outrage embraced at a self-righteous indignation rally. people need to be humbled back to something like, 'get real you f'n beef-witted crassulent self-centered assholes'

I think there's some chance that folks may be surprised or even struck by how uncomfortable it may become as the week ages... Scott or someone has been mentioning - I was noting yesterday's heat in the upper MA. NYC and LGA obs were both over 94 F in the Metrowest/Utah source... in fact, 95.4...well enough above the 94 to not be saved by the mantra reliance of celsius rounding game people need to petty invoke to not admit it's hot.. lol. Seriously, that was under the radar 'big heat' down in the MA to NY region that got - thankfully for them ...- interrupted by a huge convective a-bomb that exhausted/normalized... Point being, we have not been in an air mass yet this year - that I can personally recall - where this kind of over-achieving heat is even possible - over SNE's interior climo favored regions.. NW/NNE has... I was just looking at the NAM's 12z FOUS grid for KBOS ( which is Logon at geographical point) and the 60 hour is putting up a 575+ dam hypsometric height, with 850s somewhere between 17.5 and 18.5 C..on a SW wind and critical cloud level RH < 50% ...meaning the antecedence between 2pm and 8pm that late afternoon and early evening had ample sun. The SFC is is 28 C...but, the typical 4C add -in for the bottom 20 mb of compression and slope suggests it's 93 minimum, and with those hypsometric values so high...the DP has to be well over 70 despite whatever the MOS is indicating for either of these two metrics. Now, ...the NAM and it's grid could be wrong... but, that is the snap shot objective interpretation of those numbers... and I can assure you, we have not regionally had that kind of HI ...

Lol, cool - I showed up to the dance hall when the deejay was already gone and the floor was festooned by ribbons and litter ...and the guests had long gone home after the celebration had been interrupted by a brawl and the cops showed up and sent everyone on their way ... I have no idea what went down Just bored -

She's probably antagonistic ? I don't know ... I mean, these are faceless rabble on the internet so everyone is either accidentally ...if not outright, trolling at one point or the other. That said, she didn't put words in your mouth by saying "insulting" - because ... people do not typically characterize others as, purposely antagonistic and/or awful ... unless they feel they were being insulted - so... her assumption there is fair. Otherwise, they would be doing so unprovoked. She didn't put words in your mouth. You were insulted... Now, if you were, focus on that and why -

Heh... her friggin caption says, 'unpopular electric eel in a pool of catfish' - you were warned - lol

I wish "the thread" would be shut down on all of society, frankly. Humans are in more dire need of a reset and forced multi-generation 'humility' reality check than any species since the dinosaurs saw a fireball from the heavens. This 'doom-scrolling' is a manifestation of a psychotropic stimulus addition. The same one in peered sciences, showcased in 60-Minutes, and tapped into and used (manipulation) by portable comms industries et al... It's sick. And in the absence of real corporeal threat to survival ...at a kind of instinctual level, humans fill that devoid sense of threat with virtual hostility - Industrialized media has 0 compunctions about sloping and spinning headlines to keep feeding the addicts, too - ... Meanwhile, you look down your street in both direction and the environment, under foot and in the air and sky, are all quiescent ...and there is no simultaneous realization that it is all a delusion of dystopian horror because the herein reality is merely a subset of a bigger truth ...that shit just doesn't happen - it is being constructed by the humanity within a bubble cinema... - it is all humanity doing it to itself. We're talking about the general scope - obviously down at the individual, case-by-case level, people are endowed with hardships... but that's an evasive argument when comparing to the whole. The bell-curve contains a convenience addling mass Stop it! ...the plug needs to be pulled... the batteries allowed to die. Because the evolution of this technology is not serving good - it is serving satisfaction without connection to work, where is how the psychological emergence of virtuosity is engendered.... Virtuosity decays at the onset of convenience - the easier the satisfaction is realized. And that ( digression in-coming) is also a catch-22 ...and why the very same evolution that supplies this particular species with the wherewithal to achieve convenience ...effectively evolves toward its own demise. Think of it this way ... Teenager A: a rich kid is given the keys to a new car. Teenager B: a 'less fortunate' son/daughter... washes cars, mows lawns ... takes a job bagging groceries at the local supermarket on the weekends spanning however long it takes in sacrifices.The two teenagers end up with the same car... Which teenager is most probably destined to heap said car first? Humanity functions on whole, as a macrocosmic analog of those exact same appreciation modeling/'tendencies.' Human species A is given easy access to survival and entertainment... Human species B works very hard and toils to realize those same advantages... Which one ends up in a heap first. It's all related though ... being given anything...be it free cars, are free access to 'dirty laundry' and drama of unfiltered and un-appropriately analyzed non-categorized information ... it becomes unprincipled because human beings do not intrinsically connect value to anything they are given for free - and the advancing evolution that allows humanity to manipulate its own environment supplies successive generations with satisfaction for free.

That is a really interesting synoptic evolution along the EC days 3 thru roughly day 6 ... you kind of have to be an Aspergery nerd to see it but ...that vestigial faux tropical whirl migrating slowly on up ... for lack of better description, "eats" the heat. There is a quasi EML/SW release plume flooding throughout the midriff Ohio Valley and up through the eastern Lakes, NYS and the ST Lawrence...but, the cyclonic whirl - as per the Euro's evolution - is absorbing the 850 mb thermal layout... You fan see it when animating through the frames. It gets weird looking, because day 6 shows that there is still thermally charged 850 mb thermal air left in the wake of the whirl's passing through, but by then there is more of a transient 500 mb deeper layer trough that sets over the NE quadrant... while that heat is still rattling around underneath it. Never seen a 500 mb trough with so much warm air in the lower troposphere.. That's gotta be unstable for one - That has to be a fantastic heat signal in this particular run cycle by day's 9 and 10 tho.. wow. You have a massive heat release there timed under a super-synoptic scaled hemispheric wave length expansion spreading over just about everywhere S of the 45 N between Colorado and NJ/Mass with hydrostatic depths exceeding 594 dm! Unlimited diurnal potential pretty much ...day time highs are limited only by the fact that we have a main sequence yellow dwarf star and at average orbital distance of 93 million miles... otherwise that'd be hell on Earth if that succeeded... During a Pandemic no less ... where's the Bible

He might be right he should’ve just use a different product to elucidate his point… Like I could give that MJO post more credit but the problem I have with that is it the MJO needs to have gradient to transmit wave forcing from the tropics into the mid latitudes and at this time of year the correlations are weak everywhere so I don’t know if that strongly signals that way we are heading into climo heat tho.

That product Erik Fisher uses would not be persistent heat for us it would cause front aftrt front to blast through ablating the heat south would be hot from Detroit to central New Jersey maybe. In his defense he does say much of the country though so as usual we get left out of the party

We had one a month ago in May like this actually vicious thunderstorm came in from the north west like that ... sent a microburst out across the north side of my town and over towards Westford. This seems to be our MO this year

Suspicious… It came right over my town and with a flanking line structure and other lenticulated aspects along the backed edge at sun set Solid performer with sporadic limb damage around town blinding rain and hail and overlapping lightning