Typhoon Tip

wow, this 12z Euro run is very darn near close to an isothermal Friday morning ...about +.25 C at 850 with that low retrograding to near the BM... interesting -

Classic gaining sun-angle mid spring scenario where the MOS may nail it but the backyards bust 1 to 3 clicks warmer... Love these faux-warm afternoons for the alternative they offer comparing the drab misery of yesterday's ilk. So it's 50 here at multiple home stations within a mile or two of mi casa. And the wind is negligible ...so when you find a 'sun nook' it's really a stolen gem compared to what the overall week's appeal looked like at any modeling point before this day for this time period.

Ohgh....no comparison! Compared to yesterday and the day before? my god - I'll take 47 and full sun post the Equinox over that layering between rectal-plaque and Satan's colon walls weather we were given yesterday. That was our world-ending salvation...

Wouldn't shock me if locales like Blue Hill observatory ...or up along the slopes of the eastern ORH hills recoup a few hours of cat paws or even some mangled 'chutes during the first 6 or so hours of that (50-56 hours) in a NAM thermal handling. Actually all models indicate that interval as warm advection from the NE ... a bit counter-intuitive but that is actually not that atypical for a deeply core-wrapped west Atlantic cyclones that are pinned under a west based -NAO ridge in the spring. This used to happen more frequently in the 1990s. So we get some pingers and white globule rain drops for a while, and then it's cold mist and light rain horror show for another 12 hours after that, and then we're done as the whole structure rotates SE and away... And notice the 500 mb thickness tapestry matures some 6 to 10 dm prior to after that spoke pivots through? That's a warm front/symbolically Saturday could be a fantastic day and probably starts the transition into an extended period of probably the best 850 mb thermal layout of the spring so far..though obviously nuances/sensible surface weather to be determined. The Euro looked like it was attempting to paint a couple gems 7, ...10

agreed! very much echoed this a couple weeks ago when it was obviously destined that way

which is inversely proportionate to stating, ' we will always understand Kevin's illogic'

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based... That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease. The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there. But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S. It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script. We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs. Kind of reminiscent there. Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals. Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it. Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres. So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start.

I'd start that thread but in my own proclivity for harsh lament over the dreaded month of April in New England, I wouldn't have anything other than hate for God to say so ... I can only butcher Samuel Clemens, a.k.a. 'Mark Twain''s bemusement: "the worst winter I ever experienced was "April" in New England" ... his version '..was a summer San Francisco' but it works -

For those of us that long for the warmth of spring and the return vibe of vitality, leading the anticipation of summer ... etc, etc, some encouraging signs from the 00z EPS mean that the recent Euro operational ideas of relaxing the seasonality/cool appeal in the east is now only a week away. I'm looking forward... because we can hand-ring and wanton lust for these -NAO but like this one hammers over heads and the lessen still fails to get through skulls ...the -NAO is not what people think it means for winter enthusiasts. It's a suppression signal ...as the lower/Mid Atlantic low escape and failure along the EC proves for the millionth time. Heather Archembault's paper from way back in the day explained statistically in fairly discrete results that the primary storm-loading pattern for the eastern U.S. is the PNA modality... with, as her conclusion paraphrases, a weaker corresponding similar behavior with the NAO. But, popular media and science-fad of the day seemed to flip this around and to this day,... approximately 1.5 generations-worth of individuals scientifically reared during that era, persist with that faux perception. The/her papers really just point out the the key to a large scale instibility is a disruption passing thru. It's really just using statistical methods to point out what is intuitively obvious ( to me..), but has it's huge value and merit in the scientific process. If a system reaches and equilibrium state, than it is quiescent and 'not storming' ... Then, something comes along to perturb the field ... cyclones results. That 'perturbation' of the field IS the changing index - the upward or downward moving teleconnector index means that there is something perturbing - that is why cyclones happen more frequently at the teleconnector inflection points. Since the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere tends to move west to east at mid latitudes...it then adds to the intuitive notion that the PNA would be a better loader than the NAO... because the PNA comes from the west. The NAO probably has a better use as a 'modifier' ... destructive or constructively interfering with the PNA's signal(s) depending on which way its index is moving in tandem. Almost like the MJO; when the WPO/NP/EPO are out of sync with the MJO, the MJO doesn't seem to have much echo in the flow as an enforcing agent... Yet, when they sync up, look out! Synergy results and the flow characteristics can get extreme in either direction. The NAO probably adds ( not in the exact same way...), but offers modulations that help/constructively interfere's with troughs, or vice versa... to mention, helping cold loading in front-sides to enhance baroclinicity/thermodynamic instability that way...and on and so on. Anyway, this NAO migration that's going to unfold over this next 3 to 5 days ...hearkens my attention back to this annoying misconception that was handed down by early assumptions in the late 1980s and early 1990s and everyone ran away with... I'd take a pulsed rising PNA with antecedent -EPOs any day before a NAO does anything as a winter enthusiast. But at this time of year...I don't want either. I'm hoping the NAO relaxing while the PNA fails to actually go positive, as per last night, are indications that the EPS/Op. Euro are onto a warm mid month

Two runs in a row and the Euro's D7-10 exit to spring

Nah...the sounding's probably thermally straight up to 700 mb... 37 putrid butt-bangin' hell - It's amazing leaf out ever happens in this hemispheric scaled, meat-locker tuck geography called New England

Welcome to New England's uniquely sorted spring charm -

Looks like the NAO is betraying y'all in incremental run erosion ... experimentally seeing what it takes to give up - then it'll bring it back once NCEP sees only melancholy posting tenors. Y'allz jump on board and get excited, then everything misses -

It's weird ... I'm not sure if this is just acclimation phenomenon as it pertains to my person but ...it seems we keep putting up rather lofty monthly temperature anomalies and I don't feel we've had much 'warm' appeal to it. That goes back years too... Like the summer a couple clicks ago, when the big eastern ridge was modeled for the first week of July - when the GFS was MOSing 115 ( ) and we rightfully suspected its error. Turned out to be a 96/72er heat wave which is plenty hot but... the summer as a whole didn't seem outlandishly warm - humid and dewy after that, but not appreciably "hot" ...yet, the numbers seemed to suggest Venus came to Earth. I think part of this is that the overnight lows are skewing perception? I guess I don't care enough to look into it... But +4 to +5 above average ...'seems' like we should have had more days warmer than full sun 44 F'ers and that's what I remember the majority of afternoons...otherwise, we've even logged a snowfall in there. We did do a 70 day though... Maybe 40 years ago, this March would have been down right balmy by common experience... But not today? And sensibly, this was not 2012 - it almost seems like this 2020 March achieved those lofty numbers by successfully evading a pleasant month - culminating in a global Pandemic -forced shut-down of Humanity to put the dog shit icing on the fecal cake gestalt that is clearly out attack our species...

Tomorrow is a downslope dandy day.... That's got super-adiabatic surface T's written all over it.. Prolly is full sun, light wind 62 F right to the coast.

Just speaking to the operational Euro's 00z 03/26/2020 solution ... I thought the block looked less... D-7-10 clearly shows that collapsing into the west Atlantic basin perennial ridge...BUT, there is a better homage to a +PNAP and cold loading into SE Canada, too ...so, perhaps either way. The GGEM was also looking rather betrayed with the scale-degree of NAO too... heh. The other thing I'm thinking, even for the Euro ...all these guidance' are going to prove again that they suffer sun-normalization at a hemispheric scale ... can't be avoided given the current state of tech art in modeling and the fact that it's after the Equinox. The modulation in the physics is an 'acceleration' of sort, albeit subtle... it is a stalker to cold solutions. I have seen countless D 9 deep 500 mb solutions at this time of year, that look like an assumption of a deeper surface evolution would be fine. But what ends up happening is strong mid level anomaly with weaker pressure responses underneath... kind of grapple showers in the hills and cool rains showers under pan-cake shallow toppers. What happens is the baroclinicity gets normalized by punishing irradiance in the days leading. Not sure why the models don't seem to handle this kind of "synergistic" reduction in the barclinicity in spring so well, but even here, ...that deep trough the Euro engineers ends up with a broad, but less deep low comparatively... That's sort of a hint some of this is happening- That all said...we've had blizzards in early April... not discounting that climo either ... It's really like everything, it's a processes of dwindling probabilities for returns at this time of year...and if something does happen in early April, it just means that the anomaly was sufficient to offset seasonal forcing -

-NAO however ... the modeling for that particular index has delivered more betrayals than I care to count. Also, it is the time of the year where faux modes are more common. That said, the best way to get late March/early April event would be to have that GEF's derivatives actually take place, so if one is holding out hope ... it's a good start to at least see both agencies crashing the NAO index from +3 all the way to -2 ... That, while is matched with operational runs depicting west-based blocking nodes. Too bad.. everything about reality is dour .. it's weird. Pandemics and no winter, and no spring -

Odd behavior with this thing.. We snowed moderately and steady later yesterday afternoon and early evening to almost 4" ..then, flipped to sleet and cold rain as the temperature was falling to 32.5. The mat-downing was underway by 7 .. 7:30 pm ...Then, the wind picks up with ominous whirs, and everything flashed over to heavy snow that went on to burst for about 1.5 hours worth and another 3"... Then, back over to cold rain and sleet.. Bit of a head scratch because this later flip back was amid the genesis of the CCB featuring on rad and sat, and in theory, the column should have continued to cool. But it seemed to warm during that period of time. Interesting. Not sure how the event finished, but by 3 am the sky was just black, there was no wind, and glop flopping rained from the trees. Too bad, too, it stripped the gracing off the trees and that would have been a pretty specter at sun-up but.

Hammering in Ayer

Epic bright band through the state looks like dynamics are totally kicking model ass

Epic flashover the heavy snow and wind here

yup ... it will be a nerd's paradise watching that transition as a CCB gets going and this thing stationary's then start moving SW.. The big pivot!

there it is...33 ... vis now est .5 mi is light/mod small aggregate snow.

This ptype monitoring could be complex. The expectation gets muddled by the marginal nature vs the dynamics/mechanics of this whole system. The pings and transition could march N in January ... while we marginal below that level - oy. Confused further, if the elevated centers close off and heights decimal implode that little amount then we start snow growth at lower levels and do that whole 33 back over to snow thing when/if a CCB also concurrently gets more NE trajectory/organized. At which time, the snow line collapses SE with the BL temp maybe even a degree or two warmer than now. Right now we have BL flow that is ESE here but that seems to be relaxing as the cold profile has been taking over, so we are probably getting some low lvl damming from wetbulbing going too.

small uniform aggregates here in Ayer at (supposedly ...) 35 F ... but, that's shaved 4 in 30 minutes, so at this rate and considering the DP is 29...we're probably heading to 31 F by next hour I'm guessing... Vis about 1.25 (est) and the fall is flitting around in the breeze not acting like it's very wet -