Typhoon Tip

That 180 hr NAVGEM would be a hoot with a couple of 2's on either side of a panic stricken Florida -

yeah ...hence the relativity to scope and scale - But I also think it is important to canvas in a larger region because there are some summers that are fropa plagued - we just haven't had one this year. How do we draw the distinction then. Will and I had this conversation about four or five clicks ago... we seem to have a consensus then; we call it "shot across the bow" air mass? It's that kind of air mass where DPs ... 42 ish, but 850mb temperature may still be 7 or so C ... such that open sky sun and NW d-slope wind might get you into the low and middle 70s ...but as soon as the sun kisses the western tree-line, the air just smells like it's going to hemorrhage heat - you can just tell... The next dawn is dripping dew... 41 F and smells like summers been swept away... Yet, that afternoon, it's back to 74F ... You know, something that is visceral and clearly deeply obvious like that ..This? this was a weird pattern that by virtue toppled an usual big eastern/Maritime high over top, ...that got also accentuated at llvs by those upstart cyclones to our south.. My dp was 68 in rain yesterday ...that's not really unsummer - it's just unhot. That high was there because of the big ridge in the west - transitive architecture. It didn't have the same appeal to me as unilateral seasonal transition entry ... interesting...

Yeah I didn't/don't mean to be sparking argument or be contrarian ... I just think it is just this simple, if the ridge didn't so hugely and anomalously retrograde while still continuing to impress massive thermal totals upon the land out west ... ( eh hm) we wouldn't have any debate at all. It'd be status quo - ..I think the west should be normal... while we have something like now... This? This is something else - I guess also ( admittedly) there is a pettiness to my own perspective in matters, in that when I read the allah looia 'the back is broken' thing ... every year it always seems juuuust a we bit wantonly rushed - lol. Like the first cool fropa or BD in mid August and phew.... 4-8" storm watch next week. Glad we made it. haha But it's all good.

I almost wonder... Oh - heh...I thought you wrote 1911 ... I had to re-read that - wait, they were that hot in 2011? wow - Oh riiiight that was that day down here along Rt 9 in metro west of Boston out around Framingham, when as I sped down the road at 55 mph the dash thermometer was peggin' a buck 5 at 5pm ! I actually had the window down and the AC off in gawk-awe because ... something that obscene really should be corporeally soaked in or why be alive. Heh...

well... not sure one can 'realistically' think so with what's going on out west - I guess relative to our region, maybe? If we are only talking NE ...it's like cat-head-in-the-paper bag syndrome. It doesn't matter that the cat's ass and tail are sticking out of the paper bag, it only sees the inside of the bag so it's perception is safe and hidden in there... Only in this case, the world around NE is an inferno of high summer ...but the pattern anomaly ( the 'bag' ) is nicely tucking our heads inside ... Just don't let the tail sticking out get noticed by Junior. It might... I happen to think the probability is that it won't - I see this pattern as an early R-wave expression during high summer heat ... If the pattern ever rolled out..you'd eject/expulse big time thermal plume and the tail gets yanked. But early expressions like this ( late in May's too ) have been increasingly more common place since 2000 during transition seasons... I'm digressing but I think we're going to see early cold waves late Sept through October/Novie ...maybe even some legit snow threats in latter frames - packing pellet busted virga plumed CU by Halloween ... then, the gradient kicks by Xmass leaving seasonal giddy outlooks going whaaa -

"hell" is right - because I'm left heart broken again ... yeah, yeah go ahead - but, she lives in the East Village above downtown San Francisco - and we've had a storied passed going back some 25 years. It's complex and textured and ... hugely inappropriate for any social media setting patron by sagacity and patient insight ... Anyway, it didn't work out sufficed it is to say - and now...this ... won't. let. me. forget. The holistic symbolism is torturous ... I just want a category 3.5 hurricane sitting over the outer Bahamas, with a Bahama Blue conveyor pattern pointed giving it no other choice - ..heh, kind of like my lost fight for her... Right at western Maine - but at this point, would settle for a f'n cumulonimbus cloud - anything other than ennui so stretched it challenges the very endurance of man.. forcing any lovelorn lover of natural science to beedie- eyed conviction right smack where she sits her fantastically shaped ass.

It's why I don't think the 'summer's back has been broken' ? We are in a highly anomalous pattern - grant you that... One that has taken on a +PNAP construct. We are not dumping 100 F boundary layer heat plumes into coastal California off a broken back... But, the phrase is subjective so taken fwiw It's interesting to me ... I have this observations about this summer ( ..and similarly I noticed this the last two summers as well ). There seems there is a kind of 'velocity hangover' left-over from that ground-based, airline flight speed record maelstrom winter. LGA to London in 3.5 hours at sonic gb velocities.. amazing really. These are statistics recurrent with more frequency in recent winters, too. Most likely ...it is some sort of indirect if not direct physical manifestation ( ulimately) of the expanded HC into the lower Ferrel termination latitudes causing increased gradient...etc. It's just much more subtle due to the nature of the time of year - but it's kind of still there. The point being, with subtle more wind momentum that may cause more structured R-wave tendencies than is normal for this time of year... and we're ending up with that early February look ... Just an idea -

I think the pattern has shifted uniquely and unusually into a highly amplified Pnap pattern at an extreme anomalous value… Much more so than summers back being broken this pattern is exaggerating I don’t see how we can justify 100 to 110° over the entire state of California under to 600+ dam means that. I’m only bringing it up because I think we could get into an extended period of oppressive warmth still given the state of all. that said I also think that we are going to have an early cold snaps followed by early snows in autumn just like we have the last four years since 2015 followed by gradient rich pattern

The air carries a soupcon of marine aroma some 35 miles inland.. I'm in Ayer, MA and at first impression out of door you'd think we're a couple blocks inland from a shore road. I love that - ... But, after some four straight weeks of 87 to 94 unrelenting, patience-eroding warmth, this 66 F backdoor mass insert is hugely wonderful and needed. Man - ... I have literally put 125 mi a week on my bike over the last six weeks because it has just been too hot for running and frankly, ...don't want to look at that apparatus until next April at this point. And it is a BD acceleration ... Time sensitive but high res loop suggests a front.. probably a BD-genesis or amorphously so... moving west of ALB into NYS...as a N-S oriented arc tending to sweep out clouds... Then, some 80 mi back east where the post air mass is deeper the strata arc arrives to eclipse the sky. ... In an interesting twist, as the west coastal regions of the country are in an extraordinarily rare August scenario, we here in New England are actually experiencing what they typical do - 'foggaust' ... It's unusual at both ends... and an homage to a bizarre synoptic layout frankly... with an aberrational +PNAP configuration. Firstly, we are getting all this erosion and mixing out of lower tropospheric heat at continental synoptic scales here in the east, at heights 582 dm ? We've been 100 at that height - yet ... idiosyncratically the circulation medium finds a way to eradicate warmth at these relatively elevated hypsometric layouts. Fascinating... Meanwhile, Reno NV has heights exceeding 600 dm! I'm sure this situation chaps Kevin's ass ...but, we early May it for probably the next two days ...while this unusual big high finally diminishes and the easterly components exhaust. Hard to say if strata stays dominate in the sky, this far on the warm side of the solar curve - but it just has a bully vibe on sat comlexion at least for today over eastern regions.. -

That fourth blizzard in Feb 2015 tied my personal temperature depth/snow fall tandem with a 1981 Lake blitz over western Michigan. both events hovered -1 F during 1/4 mi vis shattered talcum powder cob-webbing off roof eaves ...squeaking under foot falls like chalkboard cringe. It was nearing the 20th of Feb by that one and figured the winter must’ve at last bonked it’s nadir but five days later another blizzard warning verified in a roundly recovered +5F event that featured soothing twice as much wind. Or it might have been #3 and #4 ... but I remember those two storms as back to back particularly hideously cold… Like hell’s heart sociopathic cold and the second of which was the bomb; the deep one that was like a 972 mb low going over Nantucket with wind gusting to 55 miles an hour in the Worcester Hills, in an airmass so ludicrous you’d think all molecular motion should completely come to a screeching halt but the wind snapped off the crown of a Douglas fur down my street. It laid over the powerlines pulled taut during that cryo- frappe and thank God we never lost power! Oh yeah ... that was like the 2nd warmest Global February in history.

What’s the climo on August Icelandic bombs? holy shit

Depends what we mean by snapping back. Do we mean like we’re gonna get into an extended period where is below normal? I ... no. Not to be a dink but I‘m doubting that’s happening - we are hockey sticking the climate and people just have to get their heads around we are not turning back -imho ... Concomitantly with that it gets harder to see the machinery of the atmosphere of the planetary system producing an extended period of below normal blah blah blah beyond so long as humanity continues to pump industrial farts into the environment I mean sure we can get a day like that here and there because there’s no discounting anomalies. By the way ...look what happened in San Francisco today ... what an alarming heat wave. - that’s going to put some climo grad student on the map. Special climate report last year just put out precise statistically guided study that showed world over that extreme heat wave frequency is increasing and then this happens… And finally happens in the United States it’s been since what 2012? We’ve been hotter than normal this summer but as usual our hotter than than normal contribution to the global thing has been coming in last place - we’re like the Napolis in the 400 m sprint at the Olympics

Just coming in here to say that... not very "foggaust" -like there today. "The coldest winter I ever experienced was a summer in San Francisco" said Samuel Clemens once ...a saying that is well known to the locals around the Bay area. The climatology is that the local Hadley cell intensifies in late July through early September, and that draws a perpetual marine jet in that keeps the region quite chilly. Today, they were 100 to 104 at many sites around the Bay and down town, which is exceedingly rare for this time of year there. In fact, this ridge in west is extraordinary, with hypsometric heights exceeding 600 dm!! ...it's the shear exertion of this phenomenon ... so extreme it actually counters said jet and by shear thermal wind component forcing. Really amazing... What's interesting is the 00z GFS and the 12Z Euro try to progress this R-wave back east and pulls the heat out with it ...probably would be the last cycle of summer before the hemispheric fold turns the page if so... But it's unstable and new -

I just explained how it can - IF 2007 never flipped,..it would have been worse - ...if one is into the whole snow and ice and cold drama seeking, that is.

It can't ? How about if 2007 never flipped in Feb... we'd had the first ever 0 - winter - think it was then, 2006-2007 ... unrelenting warmth in the 50s/60s through January ...couple days threatened 70 with no hope in sight in model, ensemble means ...nor the teleconnectors that are derived from those means. In fact, that the year of the titan +AO pillars that soared to some +6 SD and they had to move the scale up to capture the acmes of those curves. Big storm on Valentines day tho -

word! understood.. yeah i was curious cuz my running hypothesis is that in a gradient rich HC expansion scenario that isn't temporary and is more likely representative of a global projection from you-know-what ...it gets hard to stage the general machinery in space and time for the KU process... shredded IB events that cash in on higher pwats transporting into well timed confluence +PP anomalies at the surface , do -

Were they Kocin check-list-able events, though - or did we just get walloped. I remember 2007 I think it was...we had a 40" Dec out of frontenders ending as drizzle - pretty epic 0 Kocin month. Just askin' not d'k headin' I actually remember one of those the high was so immovable the low just went up to Ontario, stopped...and squeezed as a blown open shredded mess underneath so we ended it as zr/ip actually... at like 21 F

yeah sorry ..been busy - but it is interesting... Welcome to global warming... It's not so far fetched to imagine that it can be so unilaterally warmer than normal everywhere but still be less than extreme standard deviation heat - 89/66 is like the hottest summer ever - hypothetically

Interesting... If this so-called "cool-down" ends up more neutral, and the flow corrects back to the seasonal trend like the D9/10 operational 00Z Euro ... purporting in more elevated lows and Kelvin-Hemholtz fold-over heat blocks keeping the highs +5 without actually breaking any records, we may actually end up with a top 5 hot summer having comparatively fewer to no proper climo site records. I think that's an interesting story if that does that -

Easy recipe ... 1 ) born with modicum of intellectual potential 2) ...add unrelenting, yet ( and here's the juicy part ...) unprovable relentless ass-atrocities by the kosmic dyldo ...bake in the imagery oven of one's love-lorned va-goo-goo ... Let cool, frost with the sweet irony of metaphysically forced existential dilemma... Serves up mental-meal in really good writing - ...or at least a bloviator who thinks he can -

I wonder if we can set the three-month summer record and fail 100 - Course ... for having just barbed that sarcasm, some fastidious upstart petty-head's running out to scrape a couple-a 99.6's out of the databases - "100.1" but yeah I mean, convincingly... like 103 for two days, book ended by 99s at Logan an a west dragon fart compression off the cow-patty-wilted meadows of Rutland VT's slobbering felled bovine dairy industry

Mm.. nah, I still say you have to send them through an objective scale of relativity scope, a process that takes into consideration the fuller spectrum of capacity of that era and so forth - it sounds like your still bargaining a little there to maintain the giggly specter of having seen that. Unfortunately, ...we can't do that anyway - because any depression over the eastern limb of the happenin' wild and crazy Sargaso doldrums of The Roarin' 1920s are indeterminately lost to the vagaries of the wind. What is it that we actually saw? ... know what would be cool... time travel - go back in time with the full array of sat tech and blaze away the surface of the earth, sped up several orders of magnitude so that the Mesosoic Era until 10 minutes ago is completely available for analysis. I've often thought it would be deviantly if not psychotically amusing to go back in time to the great war of the Visigoths as they stormed gallantly over the hills ...straight headlong into the casualty spray of a couple of Gatling guns - wonder how the timeline of global ethos and pathos gets redrawn ... hm. It's kind of is an indictment of Satan's providence over man - because if he is everything the Catholic heredity of philosophy believes, and he doesn't like good, go back and make things bad. Or, maybe we are in hell - and he's just won the battle and therein there is no need. I kind of like that in way ... Just a wee-bit of digression It's just my opinion but it's too plausible that some 10 to 30% of these present eras are more advantaged and it should be noted that these records "might" ( good science offers healthy skepticism is all...) and not reflect more activity necessarily, comparing years past where/when no one was in the woods when the trees fell.

There could be a seasonal precedence sort of trend-type to consider - it'll get us every time, when you've done a thing several times and start doubting any recurrence. We had something in June... cross over PR and got ravaged and plumed its over-designated vestige was pulled on up the coast as a 78 F DP wash ... Fay? God... I write from a head-space voided of quickly accessible memory. Not sure how that's possible but - heh. But then we just did ISIS ... a.k.a., "Isiasi" Seems these were for merely either just getting lucky, or ... Gaia is sending notifications that our license to build trillion dollars of assets in infrastructure and priceless decades of family, friends, and forsaken love interest story lines is about to be revoked for failure to renew on humility - like the DMV sends those? Re the luck part... We did Fay and ISIS by ally-oop timing. Both found ways to roll dice in a longer termed pattern that does not suggest that would be favorable - like the annuls preceding that minor wind event that didn't do much in 1938 over Long Island. Apparently... it was a sultry misty summer with drizzly humid day toward the end of August and September... That smacks as a Bahama conveyor pattern to me - which typically needs to have a neg anomaly somewhere around WV ...with a WAR exerting west from the Atlantic. It was a like na na na-na daring the tropics ... But this year? Nah... this was ridging and heat prevalent pervasive then relaxed just in time for two days for something to turn the corner and up they rode. That behavior in its self... the "getting lucky" may be more like some kind of super-physical ( no, not "meta" - ) connective tissue between the tropics and the mid latitudes... I think I could almost Sci-Fi guess what that is - I think the expanded HC may also become more integral in timing those TC/latent heat delivery pathways into the lower Ferril Cell latitudes .. fascinating. Anyway, this feature out there looks remarkably similar to ISIS the way it was handled in the models...with weak or no reflection and over assessing shear stress. Yet, it nearer terms... the models had to correct for that a little - at any rate. 'Nough so that when it won the battle and turned the corner E of Florida still intact enough, it benefitted from lowering relative-shear and just barely made the "omg cut" as a categorical TC. Here we are... languishing in this heat and a ridge that the models keep trying to premature get us to early December again...and this thing comes along and gee! Go wonder, ...the GGEM puts a N-S orient baroclinic wall over the EC on D8.6 which could very well end up being another Bahama conveyor much in the same way. Seasonal trends... they'll getcha everytime - we'll see

That's an interesting factoid for a couple of abstractions... Namely, it did not "seem" to be very active, and perhaps more importantly 'why did it only seem so'? I think some of that may be my own personal conditioning, and though I pride myself on resisting the beguiling allure faux persistence ... I am human. By "faux" ( or miss-representation ..) there has most certainly been an increased frequency in designation - I'll give it that much. I am being sort of sarcastic there in that a lot of those events in this so-called over-active July, seemed - imho - to be a bit nit-picking to be honest. Were the July's of 1955 really less? Particularly when that era did not benefit from satellite or any other in the dizzying array of technologies availing to the modern observers. To mention, the science in classification of what is and is not a tropical entity was not quite as theoretically established or as indoctrinated as policy therefrom. When did the turn of phrase, "Phase diagram" and percentages over the quatradures become common practice...and on and so on. I mean, they weren't idiots, no. In fact, they were true fisherman because their tech mis se science did not merely provide them fish like alarms sounding off when DIVORAC pegs a threshold for ravioli status, heh. Haha, they're probably out playing Golf with an iPhone app networked to the TPC lab, "bing bing" ... "Damn, right on my backstroke". So between nit-picking via the virtue of technological evolution vs actually having to hand-draw geostrophic gradients while waiting for primitive non-ubiquitous radio buoys and/or fortuitously interloping shipping traffic ... with sleeves rolled up over cigarettes and coffee ( because of course ... the latter was still actually 'good for you' in those days) ...somewhere in between there might be a more "realistically" observed July... I'm trying to be diplomatically skeptical here... ...any "historical" designation of ooh-and ah for any very modern July that featured ground meat gets an asterisk - It would help 2020's street cred if it put up an overactive "historical" July that removed all doubt - blown open raviolis out there coughing out exposed llv whirls betrayed only by the remarkable achievement of HD imagery from 22,500 thousand miles into space ...is like cheering on privilege for making it home when they start on 2nd Base. It's really almost more notable as an achievement of human ingenuity and AI than anything else. I'm being tongue-in-cheek to anyone above half-wit comprehension. Actually, only an idiot would go against the modern end, as more accurate .. but that's the confusion. The debate is confused as competency - the "tree fell in the woods" in both eras, but we are just more capable now of hearing the thuds... Mind you.. the1950s was an active decade ... I bet one or two of those July's just might have had a few busted raviolis out there in their own unsung rights and heroics..

I’m going to be interested in whether the model’s call for a day five windshear of 20 to 30 nights from the southwest actually materializes at that particular latitude longitude; where they expect this would be tropical storm to be situated at that particular space and time would be a bit of a wind anomaly at this time of year at that velocity