Typhoon Tip

If this site's undisclosed enterprise really wants to make money ... maybe it should appeal to the 99.9999 % some times.

Keep in mind ...there are other elevations missing out on this anomaly. There is an actual cold pocket of air rattling around inside this slow moving trough...and if a 1,500+ ele pokes into they're going over... Overall ..pretty well handled by most guidance I saw -

I realize you and I are probably a rarer bird in this particular social -media's returning user ship .... so speaking just to you - It's dicey ... deterministic t-storm days (kind of an oxymoron, heh) will obviously come down to handling set-ups correctly. That's difficult in the best modeling times - now is not one of those times tho. Current uncertainties may be because we're entering a pattern change ... where circa Thursday through next week is just sort of growing pains in the models.. As is typically the case ... erratic behavior in the models when patterns start breaking down. They'll go full on into a whiplash mass-field regime change... at others, collapse and regress way back like there is no change. I think the continuity change happening at all, while at the same time, ...more than less preserving the SE height rises may be the take away. The dailies? Mm thunderstorms are the first thing the models will artificially trigger based upon rudimentary physical handling. Unfortunately, the lower dependability of any facet. Or it could all be a false/red-herring for said change...and it's just the baseline look in between -NAO/blocking reload. I'm not convinced of either. There is no doubt that the models are flirting with a warmer pattern though. It's just a matter of the veracity ...therein, extent of it. If I could have my druthers... I'd love to see that D 10/11 Euro extrapolation pan out that way... seeing 20 to 21 C 850 mb plume on deep layer well mixed WSW would be something to behold after this particular week. Just for morbid fascination - ...

And that really seems to be true... I feel there's some legit precedence for making that assertion about end of May heat. Often then fading away into an uninspired, temperate summer as midriff seasonal continental bulge takes over and locks us NW at mid levels some years, or other years just don't seem to hold in general and you get less big numbers. But there are big heat waves in July and August as stand aloner anomalies too - Last year kinda sorta did that.. just later? We had the early July thing ...than other than a DP rich warm season, large top heavy numbers weren't really part of that... But it's the idea of a kind of entrance heat wave/warm departure, that seems to have merit for me.

Right ... and the 00z oper. Euro does that... outstandingly, too - again, I'm not really inclined to purchase that idea without continuity. However, I will say ...this is the third cycle out of the last five where the Euro's done this... Still could be bullcrap but don't believe this is a cool/wet summer either ...and if I'm going to be right about that, we gotta start moving the chess pieces around. If that emerging teleconnector signal is legit, that is a spread that would unseat the NF set up - so we'll see

By the way ..this particular 00z Euro run models a very classic and coherently identifiable southwest heat expulsion/EML plume by D 10. I've referred to these as Sonoran Heat releases, much to the chagrin of Scott for some reason... heh. But with 20 to 21C plume over S Ontario and NY... easily traceable back to a source over the deep desert SW, and an over-arcing theme of ridge expansion while it is injected into the general circulation... that's how the table for heat anomalies gets set. As it is then poised to swath over New England at the end of the run ... with no other inhibitory factors we would abruptly offset any of the month's erstwhile negative departures with mid 90s! But again.. it's a pointless solution as far as I'm concerned until the continuity gets estaiblished ... One thing I have noticed over the decades of life and being tuned to the vagaries of weather and climate. .. When a region typically experiences an anomaly ... there is an offset anomaly that is either of approximate equal magnitude, or ... perhaps achieves so via aggregation of minoring offset anomalies over time. So, say it's 110 F for three days.. it'll be 32 for three days... or, it'll be 70 for a month... Something like that. But climate has a way of balancing time in there. Just at a sort of intuitive level this should make some sense ... A region has above normal and below normal years... but those departures are much less extreme than the week to week variability... so - some how some way the weather finds a way to make climate quotas. It's not going to be this cold and douchy forever -

Well... hold the phone. I'd like to see the indexes that I normally use, the American -based teleconnectors. Those updates hit the general public sources on-line usually after 9. As of yesterday, the CDC PNA evaluation began collapsing the persisting erstwhile positive phase in many members ... Enough so that the mean at CDC had slipped negative out toward D10 ... Both agencies normalizing the -NAO toward 0 SD entering week two. So there's some semblance of an end to this ... Despite my own wanton tendency to do so as a warm enthusiast I didn't bring it up at the time because it was too new of signal ... Continuity concerns requires holding pat. blah blah so we'll see. But, if that signal has legs and comes on yet stronger on this recent cycle, we have an argument that change is afoot ... Just for muse .. I never thought this spring's goop would end up being the complexion of summer and that 2000 was about to redux or anything... It could of course - but...I think of this spring's neggie NAO and plague of relaxed flow meander troughs and their cold pockets, as a train wreck in between the dying off of winter's screaming velocity/gradient and before the subtropical ridges begin showing up seasonally. Sort of a 'stranded' pattern more so than a new paradigm...

Not surprising... The other thing is that this system is probably overdone QPF-wise ... or suspect that to be the case. The system closes off quickly and there's no advection at any level almost immediately upon that occurrence from what I can tell, and that's going to make this a mister quickly... Which leaves only the elevations like you were saying earlier as eligible... Also - out of nowhere ... then here comes summer all at once in the Euro's deep mid range/extended... D6 has mid 80s over a vast circumvallate of the MS valley to southern Lakes this air mass bulges with amplifying riding into New England D's 9-10 ... Not sure I buy - company line... But it applies, because we're sustaining an awful lot of -NAOness look and the model just suddenly pivots the entire mass structure from Chi-town to Nova S. right into a reversal with nary a hint in previous guidance cycles... But... patterns have to break down at some point. You know it leaps to mind... often I've seen over the decades, when there's an anomaly, usually there's a counterpoint within temporal reach of it...either equal in the other direction ..or via the aggregate over time. This happened in 1977... that snow event ..and a cool snap four days later, were both offset by a heat wave shortly thereafter. Just one in countless examples ... we've been saddled with a cool look for a while and culminate it with ...whatever this thing turns out to be, and then a flip the script - wouldn't shock me.

Meh... referring to my old staple, the NAM FRH grid ...this thing's a cool light rain event for 99% of civility... Those numbers could be off - ...it is the "NAM" of course. But, climo is on its side and I could still see the Euro and GGEM correct all of 1.5 deg warmer and that's the ball game... Any consternation over seeing snow one last time becomes wasted time - Heh, frankly? I could give two shits... I'm more interested in the overall panache of cold precip loading ... like I was discussing the other day... seems to be endemic to our climatology since 2000, where both Octobers and Mays are seeing these sort of occurrences of approaching and/or breaching marginality with increasing regularity. And as is such ...whether folks get to see white or not, this is just another in that 'seemingly' new norm - puzzling causality... And also, either way... a miserable two days of inclemency weather type set to either be endured or fled. Seeing as the latter isn't much of an option for most... we suffer.

It's interesting how the Euro and GGEM blithely drill the column down as much as they do, during the actual daylight hours of Monday. It's not like it's mid May, right? For all intents and purposes ... but a month before the highest hottest sun of the year and the solar factor being so easily accounted for like this is late February - interesting.... In that/those cases ...if we do plumb the top of 1300 meter level down to -2 to -3 C temperatures ...then closing off a 700 mb surface running over top or a deg lat beneath the Pike... particularly, sustaining that look for a tortured 12 hours of translation crawl to erode what gossamer warmth below... it will snow even below 1,000 feet. In 1977 ... there occurred 10-20" of snow in the interior from low to high... from a marginal set up around this same time of the year. I witnessed an inch of snow on Boston Common in 2001 on May 22nd from mere cold air instability and evening cat paw showers that went ahead and flipped over... I can assure you, there was no UVM from synoptic forcing... It's not like it's never happened, so as I mentioned yesterday ... it really cannot be discounted. I'm also rather surprised that Euro got even a bit more aggressive with the cold complexion now passing inside of 4 day's lead on this event - I just thought the other way ...and we'd see it inch back toward just annoying as opposed to insulting like this... I don't like using the GFS for this event regardless of climate... It's got a proven track record of embarrassingly bad pseudo-adiabatic handling in the boundary layer ... and this sort of situation, then considering it's failure to completely saturate the sfc to 1300 meter levels when up under UVM in marginality ... the model may not be capable of edging an initially marginal atmosphere cold enough in this kind of close-call set-up/outlook. In early March 2018 a strong nor'easter pummeled the region with cold rain ... but the GFS was 'right for the wrong reasons' on that ... I recall it had 39/32 during heavy rain predicted... What verified was 34/34 cat paws and heavy rain... Then last summer, with 115 F highs predicted at HFD and BED during that early July heat wave, because it was consummately way too low on DPs... 97/80 ... fantastic for this lat/long no doubt, but again... these are examples of the GFS funky thermodynamic boundary layer handling..

anyway... even though the Euro's inside of D5 that system's depth and evaluation it has for Tuesday appears overwrought to me... But, going back to 1977 ..stranger things have happened, so we cannot discount the possibility of some white joining into the contention given the enormous anomaly that is hyper focused over mid latitudes of N/A in that model ( It's having trouble seasonally warm Canada)... combined with albeit rare, some historic precedence. All druthers aside, the 'keep cold N/A' aspect is fascinating and one I don't believe is purely random but is perhaps instructive because of longer term system issues with the climate... ( as an aside I should say..). But, I wouldn't be surprised if that normalizes ... climate argues one looks for that first... Also, fwiw the oper. GFS is out of phase almost entirely with the oper. Euro just beyond that time frame...where one model 'looks' like an attempt at climo and the other... heh, does not -

mm... nah, deeper than that going on in here dude -

oh, of course not...ahahaha. more human than human... Although, I have to admit ...I hate this faux winter in summer bullshit. It gets old quick ... It's no mystery to return users... In my own proclivity to bitch, moan and opine about the loathsome April mist... (that's apparently stealing time away from May this year yet again...), I expose my own humanity in such matters. I almost wonder ... I think I have "conditional S.A.D." ? if that makes sense...? I don't feel or sense any morose perception on matters or reality in circa November when there's some D 9 polar bombs detonating on the Del Marva... I don't even mind the dark days and the endless nights... so long as it smells like snow and the nostalgia of it hearkens the way it supposed to... blah you get it... But, when it's cold and dim in April? That inspires a rage that envies Hades. The world should be grateful I do not possess super natural abilities because you wanna see f'n dystopia - my thoughts are guns of god damn Naverone when comes to having my warm seasons stolen so that nimrods can gloat about cat paws on a Goshawks head.

Those are interesting on satellite ... the anvils are stripping off and running down stream indicative of a unidirectional velocity shearing....

mm.... so long as that "we" does not reflect the norm/ballast of people. These are a sort that probably carry on with a smidgen of that -S.A.D. ...yes, that's "negative" .S.A.D. It's an actual peer reviewed, documented topic but it has to do with the 10th percentile who loathe nice weather? Quite literally ...it causes them depression and pain, much in the same way the loss of daylight and cold weather cause the majority of population the same crisis in the winter time as we approach and exceed the middle latitudes. So it's a minority but they do suffer... I'd extend an easy supposition ...there are those of that ilk skulking around in this particular social media... But also, it's smeared by a population of outright dystopian lusters, and I'm starting to think these the majority of those that push. Those who seem to hide an anxiety if there is no level of 'excitement' being delivered by the shear unpredictability of the intrinsic uncertainty of weather's vagaries... So what do "we" do? Create an ominous pal that there is some sort of an apocalyptic caterpillar infestation that won't ever be that way ...It's 'nough to push one's seat back, quietly rise to their feat, amble into the kitchen, extract a melon-baller from the utility drawer ...and commence doing the same to their own eyes. When you mash all these ... eccentrics up together and then listen to them opine, you can sort of gather a sense that 'normal' individuals sample the content in here and move on... Others, 'hey, ur my kind of peeps. Why they come in here and get involved? - I've kidded in the past that it's really a kind of a support group, well ... all humor has that uneasy element of truism, and hate to say, but some of those proportions in saying that are probably closer to correct.

It's annoying that the models keep providing enough stimulus to enable the denial swimming pool. For some reason, ... it gives me a sense of pleasure knowing that whether folks allow themselves to visualize it or not, ...JULY is still going to happen and empty that kiddie swim time. Ha... yeah yeah.. It may cat paw somewhere up there along the wind-balded desolation ...where of course it matters to so many ... What, is there some sort of moral victory there? ... Saturday looks like a chicken salad day, more and more. Perhaps not as much in the elevations... NAM and GFS MOS' now capitulating to higher sun angle tho. It's helping that synoptics are correcting drier in the cloud levels ... but the down slope flow and the mid May microwave emitter in the sky nuking the hell outta the landscape ... they are now edging 70. That's gonna be treat-worthy stuff after this day's scank that makes a Vegas slut look royal

Which is ...?

I keep seeing this robust, warm ridge/pattern to the la-la land range of the GFS pop up about ever other run or so - I wonder if that finally makes its way into the mid ... shorter ranges by September 1st ?

omg... ha... ya just gotta throw hands and laugh at some point. Those teleconnectors ... may as well snow in every month this year - with zero volcanic precursors ... I'm sure NCEP state-of-the-climate will indicate the 2nd , 3rd... 5th warmest whatever-months while it's happening too...

Heh ... all good questions - I did say 'not to conflate with GW...' ...but in all honesty, I'm not sure there isn't some causal link there ... It seems intuitive there could be, with budgeting heat source and sink across the planet during transition seasons; if so... intuitively it could perhaps be chicken and egg thing when it comes to momentum -

If going by standard base reflectivity alone ... rad presentation would like like down right snow - I don't find any of this all that surprising... It's part of the climate shift ( not conflating with the Global version of that ...) that I've noted that seemed to switch in to gear around the year 2000 ... Namely, book-end unusual cool/snaps with precip loading.. Prior to the year 2000 ... I can recall only once or twice, experiences in my own life ( so granted ...anecdotal) ...where Octobers incurred measurable snow - living both substantial year-spans between the Great Lakes and then New England. Since 2000... 7 Octobers have measured, just shy of half of all ... Be it a hefty grapple shower that flipped to bouncing packing pellets, or ... an actual synoptic event that leveled > 1" of silvery slush on car tops and grass or more ... snow in October has become frequent enough to almost force expectation. It's not quite the same comparison for May; years ago.. though rare, May's have measured in every decade I've been alive, regardless of Lakes of 'England... But the impetus there is rare. There has been an uptick in frequency since 2000 that is certainly noted .. .. I'm not sure why this is happening, but the frequency spanning now two decades is become perhaps a little less seemingly like just noise... I will say that this particular year's weather pattern seems to best be characterized as a screaming gradient/velocity ripper winter ( just like the previous 4 or 5 of them have, back -to-back..), that relaxed all at once in the first or second week of April, and when it did... it just sort of stranded the hemisphere into a stagnated blocking tendency between the 45th and 70th parallels... I think this did so last year too ( frankly ) but perhaps 30 or so days on average sooner, and we were able to cash in on some exciting winter storms in March... I also wonder if in a lot of the Mays since 2000 ... if this late blocking thing has been prevalent ... interesting. And I recall about 50/50 split ...years that I saw snow on the ground in May... 96-100 F occurred in July - in case anyone is using this to get them closer to winter and denial substantiation. Ha

No chance at any Euro 'warm sector' on Friday ... which is a dubious distinction for that is in the first place. But so long as the -NAO is instructive and is jamming polar high into eastern Ontario you aren't getting warm sectors N of ACY, NJ. Change the latter and we'll talk, else forget it

I'd say that's snowin' into the Worcester Hills ... Not like it's -1 ... it's a good -4 at 850 But...the Euro op. model has been routinely straining credibility by diving the lower troposphere beneath climo or even reasonableness in just about any day coming into D8 thru 10 range... It just seems that the anomalous nature of the -NAO is not something it's state of the art correction schemes is designed to handle ... Sarcasm aside, it's been having to correct D6 to 10 quite often since this anomaly set into the model frames some two weeks ago. In other words, easy sell - ...probably it's 57 F and more mist as usual. Punch clock -

Today is the first day in probably 15 that really has a chance to maximize irradiance and bust MOS ... maybe a little cool - would be more demonstrative if we didn't suffer the strata deck back east during the 9 to noon hours, but now that its evaporated off we should see some rebounding. Where it's been more fortunate/earlier in the deeper interior it's gotten 71 at enough Davis' ... it has that back-patio warm vibe, while only 65 at NWS sites ... A typical distribution sheltered spring high sun days. Light wind is helping that too... But, noticing the NAM's MOS is 75 at KFIT tomorrow - ..that's gonna be a sensible oddity compared to the last week of conditioning - Even in an overall shitty pattern ...we can scrape by. This is noooo 2005 -

It really probably comes down to the wet and cloud factors. It's 60 here ... just from my observation over the years, most folks would be perfectly contented with 60 if there were at least partial sun and it was drier. But, it's cloudy and 60 not getting a warm assist by nape sun is rubbing folks the wrong way. I bring it up because the temperatures are not that too anomalous cool or warm. April was < 1 F ...which should almost be unnoticed ..but that pesky factor of having 22 days of the months apparently cloud with some sort of measurable ... (record breaking dismal if there could be such a metric ), most likely tints matters abject - If this persists ... the negatives would tend to gain a larger SD by detraction from climate, however.