Typhoon Tip

I could see that evolving into a Bahama blue pattern ... It's another personal-ism so bite me - Basically, it's when the WAR doesn't edge - enough so - over eastern continent, and a weakness forms between it and the semi-permanent western N/A heat dome... The flow becomes S/SSW from the surface to 200 mb level east of the cordillera ( that's App. mountains axis) ... I "think" ( though am not certain ) that the huge PWAT laminar transport that occurs from the deeper subtropics all the way up ... provides so much condensation potential on the atmospheric particulates,...that together they rain/settle out impurities, rendering the sky so deeply blue it's like some fantasy world Korean pop video where rain drops are violet pieces of candy... Whatever microphysical and or other cause, you get some extraordinary visibilities with DPs of 76 ...all the way to Maine when that sets up. the impetus in awe being...it's hard to get vast visibility in high water content... but that sort of scenario achieves that somehow. I haven't seen this in the last couple of years tho... actually going back five or more ...I don't recall.. It used to happen almost dependably once or twice per summer, that set up ... in the 1980s through the 1990s, but since 2000...seems increasingly a rarefied synoptic ordeal. I think that is because the flow is being sped up - yup...yet again, because of the dreaded HC expansion. I've noticed even in summers we have velocity anomalies. I mean, yesterday, nearing Augie 1, ...we had CU turrets ripping so violently NE away from the buoyancy parcels that it was probably even inhibiting complete rain out of the convective cycle beneath them... I saw vil plumes go from eastern CT to S of NS in like an hour... what is that... 300 mb 200 mph geostrophic wind speed - jesus christ. Slow the f* down already... Anyway, if the total atmospheric maelstrom ...like everywhere, is having to balance that kind of momentum distribution, it's just mathematically/geo-physically ( probably demonstrable) that the wave structure/R-numbers would make scenarios less capable of N-S orientation in lieu of conserving all that rage pointing W-E. Just a supposition...but I think a good one.

They would have been better off if they had conceptualized, "...With the unexpected summer-season surging COVID-19 new cases being observed throughout the nation, primarily outside of the six-state New England, NY and NJ region(s), we have determined that the safest course of action is to limit travel as much as possible outside of our region of the country. " At least it would not be insultingly dimwitted - that product ...seemingly attempting to tap into the instinctual blood-red comes off as divisively fear-mongering and heavy handed - almost regime-like verboten in every sense of "Gestapoen" (Gestapo) rule - 'don't go there or else!' .... I suspect they are just short-sighted and over stressed ...but that's almost comical

Conspiracy theorists dabble in plausibilities while negating the probabilities - and that's what suspends their disbelief ... psycho babble feeds back, viola! they're out to get us - But, the Gov of Mass is not helping when they put out products that look like this. Yet, under the auspices of where are the 'low risk states' vs 'high risk states' ? This looks like a child did this - anything that's not us. Almost smacks like we're all just a bunch of beef-witted plebeians that are too stupid to "get it" so just "tell 'em not to go anywhere" I don't know if this is lazy or swamped ...probably the latter, but this really needs some sort of qualitative refinement .. It looks like a tongue-in-cheek prop behind "Weekend Update" on SNL. This makes no logical sense - they're doing rolling percentages and some other explanatory method that doesn't really fit "reality" ... Massachusetts ( for example...) has a population of just over 6.8 million, and a caseload that brings to ~0.4% of the population, and Alaska has a caseload to pop ratio that comes to .01% ....why are they high risk and Mass low risk? I'm sure there's something else to this but that's bad art/presentation for an increasingly skeptical and perturbed population that's about ready to suck on a f'n covid pipe out of frustration anyway!

yeah...but to elaborate on what should be glaring... every passing hour that there is no center or enough momentum therein, shades the potential of this thing... at this point, it looks like it's already into the eastern Caribbean gauntlet where most bambi's take a bullet - mm gee....looks like the conservative genesis approach of the Euro may have merited in this case ?

Somewhat interesting ... the 18z GFS appears to have partially capitulated to those GGEM ilk kind of sticks the Euro on an island by its self. I mentioned this earlier… The Euro has a history of being a bit delayed with initiation in the tropics wondering if this is one of those times

Kind of interesting ... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Rhode_Island-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined take a look at the fixated fog bank out SE of the Cape ...notice the southern edge seems to be permanently etched out of free space ?? I suspect that is demarcating a cold water/warm water interface, and everywhere that is fog-side is the colder SSTs ...

94/70 ... unfun

Going by the "10 after 10" adage ... we'd be 100 today here... 91 already ...and it feels it

No one asked... but that appeared to me to be a hybrid frontal triggered deal that sort of then relied upon MCS nocturnal sounding ... then suffered the typical diurnal morning decay. I've seen that alot ... when I first tuned in around 8 am that looked like it was going to rumble down Rt 2 and we never saw any clouds from that here in N. Middlesex Co in Mass... As the sun rose, the CB turrets stopped and you end up with mid level band that resumes a NE motion away from the previous right turn. But, you can see a subtle outlow trace left behind so perhaps trigger axis?

So bearing very little resemblance at mid level tropospheric layout and/or synoptic evolution ... those forcing governors manage to relay a TC ( assuming so...) up the EC similar to the track and speed behavior of Irene ... At least per some of the operational versions that are more coherent with development... Granted, the Euro and GFS are not impressed with this system and never have been. That said, even these guidances have come around ( a little bit ..) more polished with the developmental complexion of the would-be TC .. overnight. It may still yet be that the system is being under-done therein, pending a better detection of actually existing in the initialization grids for these global numerical models. Contrasting, these other guidance ... such as the stellar performing NAVGEM and the shimmering gallory of mediocrity museum-able GGEM...to mention the HWRF ( wooh, bestill our quaken dystopian lustful hearts) may simply be more physically sensitive to parametric variables - thus don't need as much to development matters further. Speculating.... Earlier in this thread I was of the school that there was no way to get an EC crawl and/or expresser given the season trends - and of course... proving the existence of metaphysical forces governing all... summarily the pattern begins to change toward one that would, only "seemingly" by pure coincidental timing. We'll have to see ...

Bahama blue pattern... Pixel showers with narrow turrets that blind windshields for thirty seconds and lower the backyard temp from 84/75 to 79/78 before resets... Sometimes training though -

Nothing

Really ... I've seen snow at least in the air in 5 of the last 8 Octobers, 3 novembers hosting winter storm warning verification - I guess if one can't wait a month post Sept one they're probably not lucid enough to pay attention to anyway ..

Everyone gets a f'ing F!

We've been hotter with cooler 850s ... something is preventing the mixing depth today - let's just stick with that.

'course I haven't seen the 12z Euro yet...

Meh... looks to me like an incremental step by the GGEM/NAVGEM....etc, toward a suppression - reluctant capitulators to the Euro ...just need another two or three cycles to have this down to a TW southwest of Jamaica... But, at least it spurred 7 pages of profligate consumption of fossil fuels to power the internet and the engagement for absolutely nothing - lol

Yeah...I figured as much ...but unlike you, when I try to explain this sort of detail people automagically don't get it and stare at me blankly as some sort of metaphysical curse to not get it - Kidding but that said ...there's still some value in their being the same - rounding conventions notwithstanding - ...

excruciating nerd ob ... but, I just swept the ASOS and as of the same five minute interval, HFD/BOS/ASH/BED/MHT were all exactly the same temp to the decimal, 93.2, and, all were at their high temp pegged. I just thought that was an interesting result... Also, 97/66 at KTAN is respectable !

actually frontalysis is an option too... I just want strobe lightning -haha

I don't know, Brian ... still looks to me like the Euro trough axis ( 500 mb isohypsotic layout) remains west ... The 12z NAM is really not very cfropa convincing now through 60 hours... Has ALB with SW BL flow, and hypsometric values at or exceeding 570 DAM at 60 hours... with 27 C in the T1 late Wednesday does not in total hearken to the front really getting through. Looks like a hang-up job to me. I'm only saying because we could be setting up for some convection ... TCU as this p.o.s. con-job heat wave collapses into theta-e pooling

This isn't a bad assumption or guess or ..surmise...or insight ( pick whatever is less offensive and extends the best adulation ) ... Because as we know, shallow systems tend to run along with the trade vectors...and the steering/integral with the streering level needs the virtue of actually having a vertical structure to tap into that level... Such that sustained updrafts are then influenced - In a way... the quasi-coupling with the oceanic heat source is crucial in that it is not absolutely coupled...if so, it would always shear apart...but, it sort of sinusoidally cycloids/tilts ...where the direction of the storm motion always leans some imperceptible amount in the direction the storm is moving - .... heh...cool!

See those fractals and shrapnel of SAL inside the busted ravioli region of the blown open vortex ....??? that's what's left of the venom once it is ingested and mixes with, and ultimately physically stops the pseudo-adiabats from timely release of latent heat... The way SAL works/is theorized...by the way ... is that it infuses "too much of a good thing" into the cloud seeding levels of the sounding... Such that when condensates are super-proficiently gather early system doesn't benefit from the time-corriolis part of the dynamics, and the system is effectively stopped from organizing mechanically -

Mm...I would add that momentum isn't the only thing wrong with trying to move this elephant's ass... There is a huge envelopment of SAL that is wrapped cyclonically into the wester circumvallate of the best perceived cyclonic region ...actually looks like the stinger on a TC death hornet

So Logan's 90 at 10:30-ish... any rounding pettiness notwithstanding - Figure there's 6 more hours of plausible temp rise - assuming we don't taint the skies like yesterday... seems MOS is aiming well -