Typhoon Tip

yeah...jokes aside ultimate solution with that thing is ... excruciatingly tedious and nerdy of us to even be following but - lol - appears to be flux.

Not sure where this trend ends... I was brow-raising when I noticed how similar the Euro looked to this recent GGEM solution as it is ... in that order no less heh. Anyway, if these models were just a little weaker and/or turn that south moving it into that TV settling position just a little bit earlier on, we don't even get into the rain like that "FV3" - I guess that must be the new GFS experimental ? Anyway, the Euro has a very warm day in the interior next Thursday with +13C at 850 rising during the day and wind veering around to the SW like you said.

wrong thread

Mm... lived in this region of the country too long... If the wind is veered anything more than 190 (~) than anywhere east of I-91 (N-S) over eastern Mass looking at an incredible severe day of gentle elevated sheet lightning ...maybe even a "die line" as far west as the CT River Valley.

lol me neither ... that kid's like a Meteorologist Forest Gump equivalent

GGEM not having very good continuity either .. These cut-off lows are always a beyotch for the models, and the peregrinations of the GFS and this one really showing that over the past few runs. The GGEM not only parks the U/A low in the TV, it's really so far away that we end up building heights back over 582 dm over NE and the upper MA... In fact, that looks warm by Thursday with 560 dam thickness and 850s up to +12C if it were not for the cold ocean lurking there, Kevin looks like Will and Scott's daddy -

I could see it going to solid spring by Wednesday "IF" one is dumb enough to go with the 12z GFS' operational rendition - Thing is... the model's placing that U/A low it cuts off all over the map from run to run. Now, it has it way stuck down in the TV by Tuesday, with a huge push of "BD" ( in quotes because I'm not really sure what to call that weird pressure pattern/synoptics the GFS is doing...) high pressure walling down from the N - so aggressive on this run that it actually places the breadth of NE et al bodily inside the surface ridging so far that the wind cuts to nill by Wednesday afternoon, when you have solstice sun unabated to the surface under 850s' around +3 to +4 C... Granted, that configuration probably doesn't mix that tall but ... it's still enough to argue 68 F under hot sun and light wind. That's not early summer, no...but it's a vast vast improvement over the chiding tenor - it's a nice week beyond a couple of climo rotters. Big deal.. But again...not sure this is the go-with solution either -lol

35 to 70 so far here... This was well advertised this huge diurnal potential... And it's a late high scenario too ( not totally synoptically driven). We have light west wind down here ( prolly there too...) and over both locations the 850s are warming over the course of the afternoon by dry advection.. -1C at dawn is +5 by 7pm so we probably tickle our maxes say ...5: 5:30ish... I'm guessin 72 to 73 here. I was hoping to put up a 40 spot on the delta but ...heh, may have to settle for 37 ...pretty big

Mentioned this yesterday in the May thread that it would/should not be surprising if SPC upgraded what was then hashed out MRGL ( to SLGHT ) for our area. Has the hallmarks ... A warm frontal passage wedges warm sector into the region circa 12 to 15z ... After associated early showers and an elevated thunder clap or two freshens up the llv theta-e ...the sun burst through and the south facing windows brighten up suddenly mid morning. Temp bounces 14.8F in a half hour. By early afternoon blue tinted facades of the distant hill tops, along with the mash up smell of summer theta-e with early biomist turns into tropopausal rollers. The day of Monson Massacre did that... June 1986 drecho down Rt 2 did that... Worcester 1953 did that... From my personal logging, that seems to be a good way to get it done in NE. Have the day dawn fighting a warm boundary, said boundary wins by 10 am... Clearing peels open a rich warm primed air mass and sun does the rest ahead of some synoptic forcing later in the day ... None of those in that list above are intended as outright analogs ... but the orbital perspective of a warm wedge followed by evacuating S/W later in the day does bear at least a conceptual similarity.

Warmer NAM run tonight. Full warm sector intrusion Friday

That's just it ... that's not the case with that thing - ...Oh I get the example. But in this case, beyond Tuesday there's almost no gradient beneath that thing and it's just a left over whirl at mid levels... Not sure why people are evading the optimism here - it does begin to come of an wantonly so -

not sure of any reasoning that foots his outlook but ... I think he's right. The most vulnerable days to affliction from that is Monday/Tuesday ... I'm also open to the notion that this ends up less anyway, because it is not unprecedented in the mid to late spring for the models to over-sell a mid range mid level cut-off and it ends up being more of a mid level instability dent in the isohypses .. This thing is trying to settle into the M/A region while the super synopsis around it is heading in the other direction - might be a red flag? gee. Also, seeing the GEFs at least hint if not outright attempt more progressive drift ... it just wouldn't surprise me if things don't end up so bad. But, I'm also sensing this is a bit of an inconsolable crowd, too ... a time-purified bastion of ingrates that share in the same "negative S/A/D" that really just can't stand summer weather unless it is utterly perfect - otherwise, it's we eat a steady diet of their smoldering troll tactical grousing. hahaha

I just spent a few at Pivotal looking over the 700 mb RH and 500 mb this and 850 mb plumes and so forth, and much of the Euro's momentum is confined to a mid level swirl ... that's partly sunny under mild 850 mb temperatures, and more diurnal instability looking from Wed on in that particular model...

For now I'm thinkin' it's all bs... GFS run ...this Euro...all of them. The GFS is unstable showing now progressive continuity shift - which means, there's plausibility this speeds up more, and like I said...could be a prelude to this just morhing more into a west-east propagating wave. Meanwhile, the Euro deepens troughs and balloons ridges, too much beyond D4 as a general rule ... and this deeper complexion/look it has could easily be shaved off 6 or 10 dm and atone for that bias... So in effect, we are being dealt bullcrap for multiple reasons - pick your miss-direction. we'll see

Know what'd be funny ? ...is if that feature developed and got captured by the ULL settling in and then foisted into New England... no one woulda saw that coming -

If that D4 Euro pans out off the SE U.S. we gotta give the operational GFS credit... It obviously was off with details along the way ...but it most certainly was depicting a cyclone closure with a warm or tepid -phased core developing in that vicinity, days before the other guidance. Now the Euro has a pretty clearly looking hybrid vortex there. interesting. Admittedly I thought we were just looking at typical GFS day-dreams on those older runs but heh

Can you ping me next time that agenda's both in play ... but routinely necessary ?

LOL... Frankly, I like it for another reason having to do with vindication - sort of... This is a greatest example of seasonal lag around the Pacific pee puddle ( thanks Scott!!) we've seen since the odd, deep -spring frequency shift in snow occurrence that began after the super nino of 1998. And the more this happens, the more it draws attention to the notion that this may be related to climate change ...which I personally believe.. That all said, the GFS and the GEFs are both showing that cut-off as being more progressive during the week now. I suspect we are at the onset of that become more a west-east trough but will take a few runs to modulate more coherently so. In the meantime, this/that run is like a happenstance of numerical timing...where a little more progression aligned the wave spacing to unlikely phase with the N stream... I mean 3 or so degrees of latitude and timing and that interaciton can't happen out there ... Plus, the NAO is really not supporting that look - but may as well keep that tele-c out of it as it's pretty miserably handled as a general modeling rule.

I dunno - in synoptics ... hundreds of years ago when dinosaurs roamed... BDs were generated because of a v-max scooting into the Maritimes N/NE of Maine, and the backside NVA up that way piles up surface density and then mass-continuity requirements sends it rollin' on SW under the environmental flow that is more westerly down here. That's the gist of what we learned. This thing early Friday has that vmax, but what skews the definition/description above, is that surface low is already south of you and probably Kevin too, by Saturday morning, and heading seaward... Such that the whole region is in a synoptic wind field coming around the western side of the low (N). If the NAM is NE that's more ageostrophic compared to its own pressure pattern so agreed there. So, yes and no I suppose... More typically ... it's in the 70s or something, and then the front intrudes and girls get purple thighs and stand with there arms crossed at bus stops in downtown Boston as one of these wicked witch of the north farts wafts thru.

Mm.. no, that's not it either - it's not either NAM or bust pool weather. ha - dude The GFS and the GGEM and the Euro ...and the Brazilian, and the Martians all show a closed surface low on a warm front that collapses S behind the low kink on the boundary, as a cold fropa, Friday night when the low passes by.. . It's a discussion question that relates to the flow behind said low merely being NE on the immediate coast ( perhaps ..) but probably N/NW in the interior. But, again...suspect the 850 RH is too high in backside NVA and downslope flow so... it may not be a bad day. When I think of a BDs slamming screen doors and whipping flags, I think of 82 F and 10 minutes later it's 63 and heading for 47, with shrouds of 900 foot torn strata filling in the skies. That's a dramatic picture, but... having a low pressure with rain/thunder in the early A.M. depart with a low and having the region defaulted into a synoptic back side circulation isn't really a boundary slicing SW through the region in the traditional sense. That's all... But, if you wanna swim in a pool in that weather and get blue lips ... by all means - ...staining one's deck would probably work either way.

Not sure that's a BD anyway ... Looking at NAM synopsis I'm seeing a close surface PP low that scoots out to sea in the morning and leaves everyone, top NE down to the south coast with N/NW flow. Which, honestly, if that happens that moisture/ceiling coverage probably busts too pessimistic and with 850s still in the +4 C and downsloping, it may bust warmer than MOS too.

oh I know - cannot be overstated in this tuck-cursed geography known as Satan's shit-pan-SNE that is every spring

Friday's more of a warm frontal deal tho - Saturday ( to me ..) doesn't really count as this pattern is clearly a piece of shit that wont' let us truly warm sector to begin with ... ha

Oh yeah ... forgot about those two days.

I wouldn't be shocked if SPC's marginal hashing for Friday over western zones get's expanded and perhaps upgraded to slight as we get near. Heh, they have their "prediction climatology," I've noticed... It's like SPC's outlooks 'tend to modulate more' and are very conservative as an initial bias when initially "threats" come into vision for New England. It's like typical hash-correction climo. Lol Can't say I blame them... Usually what happens around here is that once all known limitations have been accounted for and the threat still looks to be in play, ...nothing still happens. Anyway, jokes aside...the NAM hangs up the warm boundary west of Boston but East of ALB/HFD...somewhere sort of bifurcating the region around 12z Friday. Look at LGA on the FOUS 18z to 00z Saturday, and it's 25 C at T1 with DPs nearing 70!!!! Meanwhile, there is SSE wind field in the intior of Mass with implications of lower LCL lifted altitudes, timed with usual climo for skies to end up more bright in warm sectors at this time of year, that could generate some CAPE in a SRH saturation in there. I just think of May and warm sector wedges intruding over a fresh wet soil and any insolation, with a mid tropospheric wind acceleration as inherently risky even around here.