Typhoon Tip

for heat enthusiasts... this summer may be as brutal to your cause as the winter was to snow lovers - guess no one wins in 2020 - eeish Look at the D9 GGEM ... that's sort of an instantaneous canvas of what this summer does, I wonder - heat expulsion after heat expulsion ablated toward VA ...

Yeah that’s about absolute max of what that can do this week; there’s no/not enough super charged expulsion from the Southwest to really get the plateau up ....but, it’ll be uncomfortable

Ur outshining ur karma with that insolence

good luck .. here's what's gonna happen. every summer for the next 18.34 years is going have big plus 10 day intervals interceded by weirdly offsetting -20 episodes that last for 3 day before the whole coronaviruse illness favoring bullshit recycles. why? global warming pig species destroying the previous dynamic. then...after 18.34 years...the total warming of the globe is so pervasive it's lifted all seasonality belts pole-ward at a faster rate then climatology, setting up a climate of vitriol in the social media of that future date because of the 97th percentile nimrod rule which guarantees the vast majority .. don't get how 2nd and 3rd order partial derivatives of complex systems maintainhidden influence on statistical results. may as well not engage - 100% accurate prediction barring a comet, asteroid, super volcano or Carrington shut-down event.

southerly flow at this time of year is not a big heat direction... any time of year over the peninsula of sne, but particularly at this time of year when obviously sst seasonal lag takes until august to even wanna stick a toe in the water n of the del marva... it's sloppy to refer to a s'erly gradient flow as a sea-breeze but whatever... no one asked but this week's ridge and warm look was never a 'big heat' signal. it doesn't have crucial sw air layer expulsion/mass meshing into it. as this ridge burgeons ... there is an old trough along the front range of the rockies that vestigially creates a shear axis .. effectively cutting off any sw heat source from smearing east. such that any heat at all is entirely 'home grown' ... the bigger aspect about this may be the dp surge into the ov and up through ne as the week progresses... that could make 73 dp regardless of any mos products by the time thu/fri role around. but ..if/when temps are 86 and it's 72 to 75 dp ( say ..) who's counting at that point. it's sack sticker a.c. weather. the euro's d10 off the 00z run does have a sw expulsion getting ready to dragon flick the great lakes and that synopsis probably attempts/extrapolates that conveyor into the region .. imaginary d11/12... the gfs more than less similar, too... but of course the 06z of the latter breaks that down. the gefs-based teles are trying to snow in june - we'll see how well that works out... congratulations ncep on your model

It’s part of the delusion game… People don’t want a back door front so if they get to call it something else – but it’s a back door front. why? We/you saw it on satellite ... duh, it was moving toward the Southwest from northeast. That is a back door front. Whether one wants to play semantical games to evade reality by redefining it or not based on whatever irrelevant atmosphere it’s toting along is really besides the point. I went over this a while ago - it’s probably a hybrid for the backside airmass technically ..,but the action of the boundary still went back door.

Whereas I WAS trying to be a d i c k - haha... I think I told you I was teasin' That said, I'm not mincing words, either - this looked worse to me yesterday. That said, pump the breaks - It may end up that way anyway, though? ... tomorrow. I mean, I believe there is truth/reality to the idea of this being more anticyclonic initially here ( than merely a cold wedge backing in more typical with BDs) ... ...but, when this high starts to settle ESE from it's present structure ...the E component could very well doom tomorrow - we'll have to see. Frankly though, the heat next week is inevitable ..even if it is only 2.5 days as opposed to the previous 5 days signal before the 00z cycle of runs.. and, if it ends up 60 tomorrow, it's a 10 K run day for me so fine! as far as mood... it's ideal

Yeah Brian...though your sky is even better than mine Which I am frankly surprised ...I miss-read this synoptic yesterday, as I was beady-eyed obsessed with BD badness ..lol.. I see that and assume the worse per climate - This is an unusual BD in that sense. I think that really nails it that this is really a deeper tropospheric Canadian air mass that happens to be coming around the bend along the anticyclonic stream-lines and thus gives the affect visually of being a BD...which it is - technically - but, it doesn't have the marine cold tainted cryo fart in it because it's not hanging around out over GOM or maritimes before rollin' SW. 850's are still +6 C and we are presently light wind from a land source here in Ayer, and your 70 F is coming d-slope ... We may yet see a secondary marine taint/boundary on rad sort of snake and wobble west later, but for now... this is not the BD I had in mind yesterday. Interesting...

You can see it 'bubble up'' as it rolls under... I think conditions improve down that way at a painfully slow rate. This air mass means bidness - in fact just the last few rad frames shows a collapse SW just beginning and I bet that band is shifting/eroding S in an hour... Not sure about the rest of the day's metrics, but I bet it's not raining there by early afternoon - let's see ...

It's funny with the WFH protocols/distancing stuff ...I almost don't give a shit now that I think about it. I mean, we have Monday off ...then, we WFH in 80 to 90 all week... it's now up to 73 here behind a BD that really looked like a 54 F transport hell yesterday - I'm a bit taken aback I must admit.. I mean I feel pretty confident in the why, but this is MOS bust too - FIT was supposed to hand at 67 and drop to 57 by sun down and it's ...sorry, nearing 70 there with NE wind out of a D-slope source that supports 80 still so...heh... this is a kind of operational/forecasting wtf moment here -

I know your into yard stuff... My friends of the non-Met ilk are all bitching actually because it's been so sunny and dry and they've all got lawn treatments down and don't wanna use the water/hose ...ha! Oy, can't win... It is dusty dry here, I admit. I mean the deep soil/ground is fine still...but 80/30 type days ... that's going tan the lawn hide pretty quick if we don't get some restorative top hydro -

you can see it arrive there on sat really nicely - time sensy https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ( less marine tainted)

It was a good call... you might remember we set this up the other day; a hook around air source. It gets colder in NYC eventually than you with this tucking - maybe. I am noticing ALB is getting milder to warm again in the NAM as early as tomorrow though.

Now squared away behind the boundary, at least for Rt 2/495...this is thus far just refreshing... I must admit, the house was a tad uncomfortably warm overnight - had some issues with tossin' and turnin' and seekin' the cold side of the pillow. Right now it is 69 F which is actually back up 2 degrees since the initial boundary calving an hour and a half ago. And this did not come in with packing of strata/Labrador marine processed air, either. The sky is mackerel and bkn elevated shrapnel with sun beams penetrating. What all this likely means for today is that the day may end up better than the standard climo for BD madness. Ha. Seriously, if sat/sky coverage continue toward more sun, a NE wind west of I-95 is still a continental air source ( less marine tainted) given the day's leading synoptic. Just got to keep that vestigial gyre S .. south coast is probably butt plugged by that thing either way but I admit to a bit of self-servitude in this evaluation and so am not sure. I mentioned that yesterday ...though this front is certainly making inroads across the area exactly like a BD behaves, ...it's really almost too deep in the sounding to be truly just a low level cold mass-restoring cut back event. It's bringing down refreshing east Canadian air. Now...given time, and an east drift ...which still appears destined, that may change and the air mass may in fact ripen with marine taint- I think the NAM is actually saturating Logan's RH1 level at hour 60 from a 08 wind... See, BD's are not a horrific to me, unless they are transporting that low tide smell along with shrouds of dead fisherman's spirit clouds .. inland. I've seen 93 F plumb to 46 F in 20 minutes ... 89 fell once to 38F in 1998, March 31, in 15 hours, and the first 30 of that in 10 minutes up in the Merrimack Valley of NE Mass... though this later one was also a bit more continental in nature. It's a hard prediction to make - which BD air mass is transporting just continental air on a curved anticylonic surface, versus that plus marine or just marine... The latter is what turns BD's into a Med run on the pharmacy - But, I was just looking at ALB on the old FOUS numbers for Sunday and that site on the grid is offering a 2-meter suggestion of around 22C, with SSE drift and low RH skies/ceiling levels... Meanwhile, Logan is 11 or 12C... Not sure what this means for the CT but probably a line from NYC to PWM and points east is gradated tomorrow. Euro's 00z run started improving Monday some... I am overall, less impressed with the heat this week.. Seems the models couldn't leave it alone and are now obtruding a powerful S/W along or N of the Can border by Thursday and that would significantly curtail the longevity heading toward next weekend if that holds.

spectacular display of undercutting mechanics on hi vis loop over the last 2 hours... https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined .. where's the BD

Wow at just how precisely cookie cutter the NAM korn holes Mem weekend. exactly ends Tuesday with it.

That distant signal might be the summer settling pattern ... of perhaps an amped version of it. seems to do this more times than not in recent years dating back awhile actually .., butt banged all spring then a heat wave, then it’s indeterminable NW flow that shunts heat/convection and bores to tears —> early cold snap and snow chance just before the gradient kicks in again and f’s up the winter leaving doom winter forecasters explaining why Its no wonder why there’s seldom substantive Met dialogue engaged in this forum any longer because it’s all so predictable ..

This is actually kind of like a normal cold front it's so aggressive ...looking at WPC it's a sharp boundary slicing due S... It really is only a back-door phenomenon from about NYC and S.... But, since the wind immediately hums around to the NE upon passage I guess it's splitting hairs. Either way, it's on roids.... between a strong PP discontinuity balancing from the NE, and a low pressure actually sucking the air mass SW.... it's going to abruptly change things. How much so can't really be nailed down...but it will be colder in direction!

Imagine that? ouch ... 71 at 9:07 AM ...woosh, screen door slams shut and an hour later it's 57 and gray, and an hour after that it's 49 and steady light rain after two days near 80 - ...without "hot sun"

Lol...

One of the aspects that is helping to accelerate this BD ...making it more aggressive than some want to admit, is that there is a legit ...albeit weak, coastal low developing over the upper M/A and then scooting ESE of LI during late Saturday. With a big high pressing SE out of Ontario into the Maritimes under confluence, there'd be at a minimum a N-door cold front as far S as SNE ... but the pressure/density discontinuity of that low really drags the boundary down through NJ too. Even NYC is 7C at T1 Sunday morning at 8am. You know, it is not impossible that the models are underdone with the amount of cold saturation under the inversion, too ...in which case it's cloudier than folks think. I don't know...some are hard-headed and can't learn despite living in BD hell all their lives - they still try and fight it. I'm teasing Kevin, but still ... you might wanna not be suprised if it's a tad cooler than you may think. It will be warmer out your way than Beverly Mass, of course...But you are definitely going back to late April for two days.

Anyway, it'll be in the mid 50s east of I-495 and 60 in the ORH hills on Sunday ... maybe 70 out HFD -way... And even if warms up a few on Monday, you're sill being influenced by that retreating high so yeah ...your summer is getting b-banged until that stops.

Kevin lives entirely in the moment ... he can't see the future outside the cat's paper bag - It's 7 C at T1 in a 20 kts sustained out of the ENE overnight Saturday night and he thinks because it's so warm right now it must be a canard...

I think I get where you are heading with this ... per our geography, latitude.... etc...we need the DPs to keep the night-time low higher, such that there's the higher launch pad?? Wet air takes more heat a to raise a unit-degree. It depends on the kinetics of free air vs free air plus water vapor. The former can heat actually more proficiently if it is kinetically charged - thus stowing thermal momentum, such that when the sun rises it will heat faster than wet air at the same initial temperature. Just sayin'

MEX is between 9 and 12 over climo tho, for D7/8 on a product that's heavily climate-weighted at that range, @ most MOS sites later next week under a west wind and 850s that are typically cooler than verification at this time range as it is. And being already at 15 to 16C, yeah along ... with 588 height rim N of the region I think we can start planning on 90 F, at minimum, for a day quite plausibly the season's first heat wave. Mansfield CT would get get lit up with heat on 240 deg wind and that synoptic circulation. This isn't saying much for DPs ...not sure, but by then green up will be doing it's part and there's enough soil moisture around that we're playing with it given that synoptic look. Now, is that a declaration? No...but those products never show the potential in at this time of year - ever.