Typhoon Tip

I've noticed the last ...several years really, there is a tendency for the models to start jamming winter 'looking' patterns down our throats in extended tenors around the ends of Augusts.. I'm wondering why that is... You'd think we'd be snow storming by the Equinox given that... jesus. I don't think it's necessarily as red as the herring/skill pervades either ... This is a tenor that tends to go into September and Octobers, too...and we've had a disproportionate to climo, way way higher than normal shots at white in Octobers since 2000... It's strange and measurable - we seem to be getting these sloped flow regimes in early to mid autumns that really mimic January. Interesting.

Hey PF ... I bet you're impressed (with cautious optimism) over the 00z Euro ! What chaps Kevin's ass offers up grapple and flips to chutes in the elevations next weekend in that run. Cuts a pocket of 850 mb air right at 0 ...maaybe -1 C, under a decent mid level unseasonable cold pool/instability column. That would probably cat paw windshield at high elevations in the least. Yes, even at this time of year (well, Sept 2nd by then) that would be the case if those physical attributes transpire. Problem is... the run is probably buying into the model's tendency to 'spin' troughs as deeper than they will be in that particular sort of time range. But I gotta say... the GFS has actually flagged some early froster looks in some of its cycles as of late. The on-going incredible persistence with this pattern since April and still no signs of changing is bewildering - theoretically challenging...things don't typically lock this long. It's actually not an illogical reason to worry about longevity heading into the colder months.. But, for the time being, as I have intimate in the past, the former circumstance makes a non-protracted warm season an easy intuitive sort of guess this time. fun stuff -

yeah.... pretty much 1974 - 1979 ... there were variations in there (duh) as of course there would be; at times distracting from the persistent theme,... but the longer term, multi-seasonal multi-year base-line construct tend to always settle back toward +anomaly PNAP. Perennial North American Pattern, which at geo-stationary values forces a modest ridge in the west coupled with a mass conserved depression downstream. has to do with mountain torque budget ... complex. So, a + bias in that regard is just imagining taking that flat western eastern set up and amplifying it to whatever degree. anyway, this happened in the 1970s ... and kind of during the 1990s ... lost it in the late 1990s through ...sort of came back in 2002-2005....lost it.. now, it's back... who knows how long it lasts... But it's really more like you get patterns over top of it - ... it's really more about "tendency vectors" ...I used to call that 'correction vectors' back in the day. but it's the 'least excuse imagined' direction things just want to go. well, you have 'want to go' eras - ... ha. humor aside, there are physical reasons why that all happens of course... I think it interesting, however, that the tendency vector seems to correlate with the solar cycle.

and jesus ... the 06z GFS ... actually, a lot of the GFS runs as of late, trying to bring winter in September. it's got a -3 or even -4 SD trough node by D10 just N of Lake Superior.

Really... we've just kept it since April ... what should make us believe it changes suddenly now ... when it is convenient to those that resist seasonal change? (ha). I know what you means tho - 'relative' to that trough biased summer, this is a bit of huger push in that regard. That push could if not should relax in a week or so... What I find intriguing is that this is happening when the models were really all individually, and in blend, signaling the opposite would happen during this last 10 days of August ...back, or around the 11th of the month's extended means. Well, not only was that wrong, but it is being smacked in the face! That ending affectation has also been part of the summer plague dude. Not just the unrelenting return to troughing and failed eastern ridging...but seemingly doing it to mock the guidance (and those that were particularly interested in believing the guidance ) ...not having a good summer? Just kidding! relax.. But seriously, I still don't see any reason why any of that has to change heading into the Autumn. Oh it certainly could - not a prediction per se.

D11 froster shows up on the 12z GFS - WHOSE WITH ME?!

...it's been this charts for days actually... what was hinted at four or so days ago (re the late mid and extended range) is becoming a bit more coherent. There's no argument in my mind that the big high look of the GGEM and the hints however supported by the other guidance types ... all hearken to a typical autumnal/October type of anticyclone. Thing is, it doesn't really look to me like a 'back break' toward seasonal dimming sort of affectation .... if not quantifiable turn; that sort of distinction for me is lost this particular year into a back-ground obscurity of eerily locked in troughing that was never fair to summer. What it really just looks like is persistence not yielding, type a thing. Usually at some point now through the first week of September, if the summer back doesn't break it is slipping a disk somewhere along the way in there anyway - this idea of dewy mornings in the mid to upper 40s with a couple afternoons in the low to mid 70s may as well be one or the other. Part of that persistence above for me is that until it really convincingly changes, NOT wasting time putting summer to bed is an easy assumption to make this year.

It was always broken this year.. heh

vacation season ends. school begins. one re-introduces demography that may have been in hiatus. one re-introduces ...duh duh dunnnn. SCHOOL BUSES. The thing about the latter that I find interesting (at times annoying..) is that the school bus routes are always plotted in these townships right down the f'n main streets. It seems the buses should turn off the main drags, and drive down/stopping where needed at curb sides on the parallel streets. This may seem excessively 'tree-huggy' but ... think how much green-house-gas emissions from the auto slice of the industrial pie could be reduced if the ensuing grid-lock with idling motors didn't take place because of the local zoning boards making a statement about how precious our children are by using immense inconvenience as the vehicle to our collective enlightenment? kidding of course... but pounding on the steering wheel at a loss to figure out why these school buses are stopping every 200 ft down critical mid-demo arteries is baffling and leaves one to try and find an explanation. I don't buy it that it is intrinsically more safe, either. I think really it's just a convenience thing ... ? it may take a little more time to collect all those precious gems from the curb sides as buses wend their way through interstitial roadways. I dunno - either way, what I was getting at is that I suspect the traffic 'increase' is more of a perception thing than a real numbers one... The bus halts the main escape and/or entry routes of road-arteries, and that instantiates a transient grid-lock. It's not that there are particularly more autos - although, ending vacation season may not help, no. it's more a function of stopping the system from moving. For me, once I've cleared the end point demographics and am out on the highway, the patterning in the open doesn't seem to vary much from season to season.

oh i don't disagree with that... but, throwing phrases into the fray like "...snow and grapple," regardless of context, is kind of exposing the "support group's " fantasy-tapestry as to where we are at this juncture. I tend to curl toes sometimes when I see/sense the genesis of cold memes to do so, even though it's my failing to react at all. I do think, in your defense, should the pattern persist ..this won't be a protracted autumn where we get those warm humid days under canopies of orange and yellow trees, with the smell of fetid leaves under feet. Lakes cutter after lakes cutter after lake cutter in between statically +3 days, with southerly winds transporting wet. The wind ends up sounding like ghost howl through stripped foliage by the 20th of October. And the teleconnectors are what we feared: deliberately (by cosmic dildo design mind you...) signaling that winter this year took place between the prior June and September going forward. Jesus... I'm depressing myself. Seriously, like everyone else I am seeing frets and starts to attempt to ridge out the end of August turning page into next month. I think that's under the wire summer fairly so. If it cooks, it cooks... Summer doesn't end Meteorologically until September 1 and blah blah the 21st of next month otherwise. I tell you... GW is real and we are (go figure) a part of the G in that G and W. I have touched on this before ...ad nauseam ...but, it amazes me that we are so persistently in the few negative (relative to the whole - not necessarily "negative") regions in the global statistics now spanning many years worth of months. That's a lot of months...and, a distinction that more than merely seems to be the case passing through different pattern variations over time.

well... you all have certainly managed to spin the end of the summer done to futility with still 19 days left in Aug, wow . haha.

I almost wonder if the NAM physics aren't geared for the SSTs at this time of year - ...you'd think of course they'd have to be. Buuut, it keeps doing this.. It's trying to wring in llv temperatures some 7 deg cooler than the oceanic surface temperature on an E or SE wind. that's like physically impossible given the synoptics leading... I dunno.

Looks like the models are trying to have their cake and eat it too wrt to the WAR idea ... They interval that ..sure, but keep the heights lowered over SE Canada sort of pinched right over top while they do.. All the while the WAR does as its retrograde toward the U.S. but then as it continues to do so... it gets suppressed and mashed down. All we get for it is increased gradient over top and instead of event-less thunderstorms moving occasionally through they move really quickly through... Anything to keep Keven wrong - it's really nothing shy of astounding what the very planetary physics are doing to ensure that be the case ...

Huh ... you really hate sun, huh - you've leveled like 10 posts in three weeks letting us know that the sun rises later and sets earlier every day after ~ June 21 ... got it! Good to know -

yeah ...exactly actually ... I'd also add that this particular year? seems if persistence "winds" we shouldn't have to wait long - unless Kevina gets his/her way. ha ha ha-ha ha

... that's doesn't start 'till next week ... Seriously ...August is one of those months that is the last - February IS in fact it's counter-point. It's just me, but I'm always frozen in a moment of rumination come early October thinking back to how much has changed between oh, ...August 20 and October 10th ... compared to say June 10 and July 30 ...or July 20 and August 30... etc etc... Mainly, the speed of that change. It is for that reason that I privately think of the first transition days of the season as being the Ides of August. That's usually about the time we get that first shot before the shot across the bow type air mass where you can feel the chill just aching to fill the air if it were not for the stubborn sun - It's the under-the-radar, unheralded, and unsung beginning of the 'real' transition boundary. 'Course, that's in general... we've had mid 90's heat waves in the first week of September - no doubt, 'after' that first air mass before the shot, that's before the shot across the bow. Ha. probably only makes sense to me -

i know it's the popular vamp to sing along with admonishing the CMC but that model absolutely nailed Emily ... All other models - clueless. It's like the CMC was that 8-year old that told the police and construction workers that in order to remove the semi-truck from being jammed up under the bridge ...you just need to let the air out of the tires.

Of course ... we probably are going be rather torrid this incoming week ...relative to present if not outrightly so - The MOS products I've been seeing have been fairly routinely throwing up > 85 highs with DPs well into the 60s. Then operationally, models have > 12 C, 850 MB air much of the time (and no countermanding onshore flow structures to the PP) That's probably all code for, not exactly cool.

Who is Ben Noll? Cherry picked product ... It's specialization is eliding a number of aspects, but one in particular: that "painting" of the synoptic state is a snap-shot that doesn't pay necessary homage to the fact that a near-by trough axis in the (most important) mid-level flow structure still presses S out of central eastern Canada. That 'appeal' as shown above is thus highly vulnerable if the next frame were available, not to mention suspect as not occurring for more reasons than the usual uncertainty at uselessly long lead modeling. Why don't we first discuss how that look has been on every D10 the entire summer and has always ended up with another OV amplitude enough to do the opposite, smash heat south. Actually ...heh, for that matter, first consider it's day-10-ness ...duh. And that the preceding days were spent in trough anomaly all over the E. There may in fact be reasons to assess warmth out there? way out there..But, that above was bad choice of products to us - what? just because it's "pretty" and looks hot.

It was ...relative to climo ...and perhaps to good deal by experience. However, it "could have been" a LOT hotter... We kept seeing a bizarre sort of 'split' between the 500 and 700 mb levels, where the 500 would ridge in the east from time to time ..but for some reason the 700 mb was out of phase. That lower level tended to be NW flow regimes while it was W or even WSW aloft. It's one reason (among others probably) why it was so dry because that is an inherently stable sounding regime.. But, it kept splicing the heat SW of us before it could get in. We ended up above normal but following routinely shy of what the 500 mb height evolution would suggest we should. Last summer was very idiosyncratic in how it shunted the heat SW of us while having a look of a warm pattern. This year, it's really more about just having the deep layer tropospheric circulation medium walling off our region from the benefits of global warming...ha... kidding there of course .

Hard to tell what that is. The NAM grid numbers look like a whip BD but synoptically it's an unseasonal baroclinic wave replete with cold side conveyor. Logan goes from SW to abrupt NE over 20 kts.

frankly ... i hate the whole hand-held culture. robotic money-spending automatons, that's what people have become as they drone their way thru life ...not needing to think. no virtuosity in reading and writing. quickest path to artificial highs, are the empty souls behind user eyes. have you ever seen a video of an iPhone robot about to walk off a curb into traffic? it's not an uncommon phenomenon as cars drive off bridges and wrap their frames around telegraph poles attests. Twitisphere ... Ha! when i was child, 'twit' meant a silly or foolish sort of dolt. Not some realm where people can fire off disrespect. how apropos, then. it quite aptly describes an idiocrisy compelled by someone else's narcissism. Yes that's right! known as Twits (people that engage in tweeting), they are more likely to be dumb down, reactionary low-brow sufferers of a phenomenon that is merely as-yet recognized by psycho babble science. it's form of addiction. One that is about as dry as a gambling crisis. developed to hook the individual and keep them opening their wallet while their senses are preoccupied by the vapidity of the virtual universe; nothing more than a commercial enterprise known as western civility. define deserving an asteroid impact. you know... if anyone wants a laugh, you should look up Luis C. K.'s comedic rant. I think it was called "Everything is amazing; no one is happy". it's funny because it's true. that ingrate sort of entitlement clicks in and transforms people into these self-serving monsters the moment technology is perceived as something they can use. it's weird. i wonder why that is... anyway, he hits on a lot this implicitly and there is a lot of truth that scarcity is not only needed, is sort of deserved actually ...

i think i'm the only person that drops by this social media outlet that still uses PCs and lap-tops...

Okay well ... I have to ask then, is there something special about the Japan agency's numbers? Are they somehow scoring higher than the other sources?? And who is Gibbs? Seriously .. you have bandied that name at us multiple times over the years, and I'm still not trying to be a douche in asking these questions but I have no idea who that is quite honestly, and/or why his/her voice should stop a room - They/that et al may very well be right. They might. But, I have seen and/or heard of signals in that same vein of "at last" sort of break-down of the seemingly immovable, immutable pattern lock several times over the last 45 days and they've all just merely evaporated in lieu of the previous fixed dynamic. That's a lot of longish words for, whatever anyone's said, nothing's succeeded in really changing... Because of those multiple faux leads, the onus is on the calls for change to finally actually change, more so than the usual lies. And I'm being snarky - I do think there is some usefulness in seasonal outlooks as far as tenor and tone of behavior only. Besides, the underlying global indicators don't really give cause for such broad canvas reconstruction of the hemispheric circulation, which is essentially what would need to happen if what you are describing were to succeed. Can it happen? sure - it might. But, lacking a reason to change, that is not really lending confidence either. If I were betting, ...I would consider that out of the last 144 months worth of NASA's monthly press releases/monitoring of the state of the climate, they have reported some 90% of them as having a southeast Canada (and adjacent geographical interests) tabulating a relative statistical cool result relative to the whole, for a reason. Much to the chagrin of the consensus voter in this sub-forum, the only times that's broken down is during the winter months - ...seeming almost personal ha! That's arguing for some sort of underlying long term planetary drive that you're asking us to believe will also be over-come in order to realize a hot month of August. On top, we have this particular summer's pattern ...which features an apparently giant unstoppable force locking a trough in the Maritime regions that's f'ing with our weather and blocking continental heat. It's all a double whammy. In fact, this summer's pattern look probably has come into sync with whatever is causing that 12 years persistence above for that matter... who knows. Brian and I were being sarcastic earlier but ...heh. in a way, there's something to the idea of waiting on the seasonal alteration of planetary wave numbers and geometry before we see meaningful change. Whether that change yields a raging butt-bang winter, or something like what people want regardless ..remains to be seen. But changing a pattern in mid August, at the very weakest gradient time of N. hemispheric years would also be unusual. stranger things have happened I suppose..

Haa hahaha ...Bingo Brian! funny because it's sad