Typhoon Tip

ISM is lagging by date ... as of last check... They seem to update that about every 10 days...and it's for the previous week, too...so by the time it's published it's an addition three or so days beyond that week... Aug 11 ... That's what I've seen from them since July. They'll probably release an analysis for the 18th in about two days... oy - As far as the subject crap - nah dude. More like concern... I don't really care if people want/need/do/or don't have biases... I just want to know that what I'm reading isn't that - which admittedly is probably not going to happen in a public social media source. word. Just so we're clear. In order to make that assessment... I may sound I like I care about specific posting behavior ... but that's not it. I'm not sure anything you have said should invalidate IMS inclusion - not that you mean to... I think it is at least worth it to vet why their plots vary... interesting. I'm wondering if it's density related.

Well...since you put it this way ...I don't disagree ... I also think that increased snow fall -- having caved last night and given it more thought -- could very easily be guided by two very certain factors: 1 ... increased frequency of smaller events - aggregation as oppose to 'block-buster' season definers... 2 ... whether true or not... any system tapping into increase ambient WV associated with a warming world.. would, counter-intuitive to the lay-folk... proficiently rain or snow, both. It's just that yar ...as the world warms... one side of that gets favored eventually. These two factors ... however disparate, appear to be converging in the climate modulation since 2000 - fascinating. I will add as an after thought ... for those forecasting seasonal characteristics - if it were me I would keep it in mind that this GW -related circulation modulation stuff is accelerating - by that we mean still changing... Probably not for the better for those interested in cryospheric agenda at middle latitudes... The punching N/invasion/swelling of the mean suptropical circulation eddy into the Ferrel latitudes is why we are seeing increased gradient... It kinda more than sorta goes like: Arctic is warming at a faster rate ...but since it starts at a very low scalar point ... it still imposes deep heights near the northern girdle of the mid latitudes... This then directly imposes upon said ballooning Hadley cell ... flow speeds up... But, with GW still accelerating ( apparently ...) that Hadley cell expansion ... not sure why that would imminently cease to occur.... and in fact ( pure speculation from this point forward...) I almost imagine the tripolar split of the atmosphere ( Polar:Ferrel:Hadley) becoming more and more duple in character over future years ...however long that takes. Imagine one contiguous subtropical band with more a singular polar jet ... split flows rarefying... interesting... Anyway, supposition aside, ... that's not 2019-2020

Nah. I was just using his post for making general point about my position on the snow. Probably my fault that he interpreted that as directed at his other stuff

I don't know… It strikes me a bit like people just not wanting a record to be broken I'm sorry it does. Otherwise the IMS plots I supplied would've been part of the discussion all along and looks a bias when potentially valid data is elided. Maybe it's not that way OK…

Granted ... I really didn't start paying that close attention to the tropics until I was mid way through me teenage years ... and also, checked out a bit during my early 20s, but of all other years remaining, I don't recall mid August with such a dearth in activity. That's just fantastically pathetic out there... wow. That 20/20 invest over the outer banks? Joke ... .that's merely desperation gasps by an office going mad in corporeal boredom - Sorry ... this isn't Saharan air/dust doing all that suppression. no f'n way man. I realize folks like and need things to make sense, and want neat, tidy explanation and all, but there's more to this suppression than that one factor. For those of you "super responsible intellects" among us that wantonly root on dystopian carnage ... you should be happy about this... Oh you miss out on the immediate gratification of dead beloved pets bobbing in the flotsem of harbor aftermath ... sure.. But, the upshot? Think how unprepared the dumb down complacent civility will be next year!

We keep saying this ...than it's not - where are y'all getting your data... I've been utilizing NOAA's IMS ...and admittedly, it has not updated since the 11th ...but there curve was substantially more loss than 2012 as of the 11th ... it'll be interesting to see if that tend trajectory could have down such a drastic 45 deg angular change so abruptly and gone back across the 2012 slope - which is what would need to have taken place according to their products in order for the current 2019 to be less disastrous - Anyway, may be a moot point - the AO is trying to rise in the GEFs ensemble. I don't get to see the Euro EOFs but... should it rise, that may alleviate the ice loss rates - slow it down ...and in fact, if that's true they may be one in the same already... I want to stress though, that there's nothing gained in the longer run by 2019 failing to surpass 2012 - it means nothing.... The longer termed issue with the polar ice cap remains dire... I'm hoping there isn't some coveted like idea that we are coming out of the arctic crisis? ... just sayn'

yeah... uh.. just for the record - I'm not on either side of that snow debate ...really. My concerns is the large scale - Globular - circulation changes that are presently being researched as caused by climate change, and the fact that the evidences are massive ... and confidence is high within the greater reputed ambit of NOAA, NCEP and countless other institutional informatica circuitry, that shows those changes are for real, and causally linked to the former. That. needs. to. be. incorporated. into. seasonal. forecasts. Because... said efforts cannot be based upon the previous statistical packages if the governing circulation that created those statistics in history have changed - that's just logic. Not sure how to get around that and to be stubbornly reliant on methods being left behind by the evolution and the forces of change over time, is tantamount to inane. I'm sensing I'm being accidentally railroaded into the snow increase, climate vs noise thing... - I won't serve as a lightning rod. I don't give a shit about snow. The circulation is changed because the subtropical Hadley cell is expanding with a warming world, and it is encroaching on the Ferrel cell region of the mid latitude ( roughly 35 to 60 N) ...and that is expressing as a gradient rich environment. Gradient directly enforcing faster balance wind field... and that definitely by numerical/physical proxy effects wave mechanics embedded within. Not debatable... I've heard that snow increase bandied about, and anecdotally/existentially... I will add ... I've personally witnessed the increasing snow stuff since 2000... But that's as far as I'll go into that stuff. In other words, these may be mutually exclusive... Bigger seasons due to aggregate totals... storm behavior this that or the other thing... More actually falling because there is more WV... I dunno -

I didn't exactly say you were - the impetus wasn't accusatory there... just not to engage in that which semantics strains the goal of consensus ( to put in mildly) in the first place - think preemptive/sarcasm for fun. Like I said... this is conjecture on both sides - ...but that means subjectivity. So taken fwiw - Unless we provide every snow event since 1990 and somehow qualitatively assess 'how much of those' were from either event profile - which ...there can be cross over -... I mean holy heck. We're arguing through our hats. But such is the nature of the beast in speculation vs real math and science in anonymity of social media - ... All I know and am confident of, is that over the last two decades...storm trajectories have been speeding up...and, balanced geostrophic wind velocities have also concomitantly risen ...most likely due to the compressive effects of the swelling tropical/subtropical Hadley cell into the Ferrel cell of the mid latitudes...that key region where our storms evolve, which exists between the subtropical latitudes and 60 N. Endemic to this era has been modeling performances ... tending to over assess cyclogen in mid ranges...only to have to mitigate development - note, mitigation is not black and white stoppage. I mean that in partial sense... It's gradation -

Not sure how we can make this distinction - albeit ...we are just being conjectural here But, this is a "poly-contextual" question. Firstly, what is meant by "impeded"? Also, what is meant by "large scale winter storms" for that matter - this latter characterization may be prone to subjectivity ..which I really ..nothing sends me to irate distraction like someone hiding in semantics so let's not go there. ahaha. Seriously, we get winter "events". Frequency of lesser impacting events is favored in higher gradient. But that has more to do with storm "organization"/structural mitigation to screaming balanced flow being a negative interference in the physical interplay between larger to smaller scale wave-mechanics. Simple words ... more storms, nickle and dimers... with less ability to generate slow moving bombs. Winters that tended to steady diets of 4 to 8" events actually own the top total years - Will? I dunno ...it's more a question for him.. But I'm pretty sure that our bigger snow years come from buck shot numbers...that than through a biggie to bring it over the top... Yeah, relative to all data sets there are outliers... but honest interpretation - Another way this textured layering confuses this when trying to reconstruct how GW is effecting large scale circulation -- > storm genesis/snow and so forth... Just because a storm is sheared ...doesn't mean it won't dump snow prolifically? Also, although shearing patterns may offer challenges to deeper Norwegian Model low idealized results.., there's likely to be snow falling from other large scale mechanical forcing. Broad overrunning/isentropic slope events for example, which in fact, we happen to know are favored in gradient rich circulation mediums. In other words, there's a few ways to get snow and/or in-the-bucket water content elevated.

Definitely agreed here ... Some free thinking over morning joe - That's why I was emphasizing melted equivalency? Water content in the snow is - I think - a more meaningful metric. Considering mass: the mechanical force, regardless of any circumstance of larger-scaled variability ( and part of that variability being the 'elephant GW in the room' ) would need to be greater for more water transport ... because inertia and gravity are fundamental laws of physics that cannot, disputed, hidden or altered by fluff factor ... By considering the weight of water in bucket, over larger regional scope and scale and temporal considerations... that should be more telling when something "big" might be changing vs not changing the system. In a dark humor sense ... that's how nature works; we'll get 120" snow seasons at 22:1 more repeatedly...then, 40" snow seasons at 6:1 ...more repeatedly ( the latter of which can only happen in a warmer, WV rich transporting atmosphere) and because the latter is less physically consequential/inconveniencing ..this quite proficiently hides global warming's pernicious outcome... because Gaia's fighting back by attacking the world using her GWeapon of mass destruction - it reminds me of turning an oven up to "Clean" - only the temperature is misdirection-of-empirical-results in this metaphor. Anyway... so, if we're ( say ) doubling water equivalences over successive seasons ... the equally important question becomes, at what point does a sample set become more substantive in this business? that's a harder question ... 10 years. 20...40...160 ? I figure Millennial changes are safe. We all know that atmospheric shenanigans behaves like faux fractals ... which is to say, not really 'true ' chaos governed. But, there can be periods of time when results do repeat ... then, some form of unknown but real underlying paradigm shift take place - said pattern factors --> results falls apart ... and a new set of results seems to be a better indicator... Until that breaks down.. We see a quasi semblance of this sort of faux patterning in atmospheric variability. My belief is there are certain regions of the planet where this is more likely to occur - here being one of them. Just based upon geographical/geological antecedent "fixed" circumstances ...those regions tend to always own the variability a bit more. The region roughly bounded by the Great Lakes to New England ... upper Mid Atlantic, to SE Canada and the lower Maritime regions is one such region. This is the convergence point of two main jet structures, and arguably a third: Subtropical; Polar; Arctic (but really just the former two). Upstream forcing from disparate integrals vary these ... then, they tussle against one another for proxy ...here. More so than say ...the West Coast of North America ...where the Ferrel Cell tends to expand and covers their region from "as much" ( albeit intensely consequential when their pattern does flip around...). Anywhere on the planet where these "unmanned fire-hose" flop regions exist.. tend to own the lion's share of variability. This is critical in my estimation.. .because these 'fractal ' modes of internal variability ... at times even spanning a decade or two ... they can and do mask systematic changes due to climate change. I suspect the PNAP base-line N/A pattern ... which features a low amplitude western hump in the isohypses...and a flat open ended trough exiting the eastern limb of the continent - that base-line "canvas" ( if you will..), that alone might tamp down the synergy feed-backs of GW on temperatures ... which by common reasoning ... then might factor into precipitation profiles. Now .. some astute reader that's successfully gotten this far might go ...wo wo wo, hold on Tex' - we've been above normal... Yeeeah... but not "AS" above normal.. It's not petty to make that distinction. This is empirically shown that our positive departures are muted relative to other regions of the Globe - where by virtue of their geo - circumstantial ...may synergistically favor them like a Patriots football team. People need to understand that gestalt is true; it is by definition ...non-quantifiable, yet is a very real skewer in this GW stuff ... It is used as leverage by amoral arguments/deniers/ and/or cherry-pickers with other types of agenda in general... But I digress...

Yeah that IMS chart post just updated as of the 11th and looks nothing like that - interesting

Heh ...these kind of statistical comparison for drama and affectation, they don't fall on me with much weight... Means nothing... The antecedent conditions in 1999 may or may not bear resemblance to this year's.. And making that determination is too complex to look at mere SAL or ENSO ... (not that you are...just in general) in quadrature. There's a lot to that integral. The AMOC is totally different... The AO dominant summer plays an indirect roll, too .. how these interact with other forcing domains and emerge different mitgators or vice versa... oy, litany of contributors. To this point in time, it is probably closer to even probability, either way, that both seasons are in a dearth ... in a sense, as in two different people entirely happening to roll the same dice combination. If it can be physically demonstrated that the governing parametric variables in bother years are say... within the 90th plus comparison-percentile, in terms of dominant influence? ( hint, not likely...) than perhaps the comparison has more momentum.

That doesn't look any different than any year I've seen it spanning the last 10 frankly... Very similar... Look at it this way.. the gunk emerging off the New England coast is as potent ... just not as areal in coverage - but you live here... It's not been a very 'dusty' summer... I dunno... I suspect that the actual concentration as a scalar value is not very anomalously higher than normal... probably for the last month or so... Just a hypothesis -

Meh...conjectural... everyone's got an opinion - NASA/NOAA seemed more remarkable back in June ... I haven't seen anything from official channels lately ... Typical, people hear something early on and write bible passages over it like it's gospel-causal. We're still suffering -NAO headlines from the 1990s...

Looks like everyone's referring to different data ... The curve I'm looking at ... 2019 has more ice loss than 2012 to date.... not saying the season ends up that way - or even if that date relative measure is correct ... but

Free fall... The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Yeah... and while not a declaration of particular support ... I mentioned my self I hadn't noticed a lot in the way of SAL this year... I still suggest the real culprit to suppression is the dearth of stronger TW ...The entire length of the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough has been sparsely populated with stronger wave signatures the whole way - so far... That'... and, we haven't had very good upper tropospheric UVM profiles - ...it's actually consistent with the lowering intrusion of the westerly QBO phase... These factors can be compensated - haven't yet

There's also a question of instrumentation and/or measurement standards and techniques there in ... I'm sure they were diligently intended back whence - that's not the point... But, we're talking about decimal increases in many cases... and decimals can certainly be accounted for in snow fall - particularly, in snow fall at varying temperatures... For that matter, it should be melted equivalency and then denote precipitation in keeping with best empirical method. Seeing as the precipitation increases have been noted globally ...that does foist a bit of a yellow flag not to be dismissive of the notion - not that anyone is...just be cautious... I've heard that snow increase bandied about but I haven't actually read any peer reviewed/accredited metrical sciences on that subject matter... It certainly more than seems plausibly true just existentially ... but my own experience doesn't stem back to the middle part of last Century either. We toiled and clawed for 6" snow falls throughout my childhood in the 1980s ...which can certainly be noise. We had bone chilling cold of the 1970s ... but really not as much snow as one might think - save for the obvious banner years there... Then the 1990s came along and as the decade aged ... Pez dispensing began... And despite some truly rancid bad snow production seasons, since 2000 ... it's really been staggering how we've actually grown sort of Stockholm Syndrome accustomed to twice that much... or bust. We get 12" snow out of instability/WAA burst ahead of CCB's that failed to develop/too late because lows are moving to dam fast now more than anything else... Although... 2015 was just an outlier for more reasons than one... we just end up so anomalously deep on the polarward side of the jet storms behaved like a planetary storm event. Anyway I agree that it's tough question... might come down to, 'sounds like duck; looks like duck; chances are ... it's a duck' The all over the world thing strikes me -

Funny you mentioned him ... I'm familiar with him by name, and because of one key relevancy ( to me .. ). Shortly after having finished writing a science-fiction novel... and it was already contracted and is presently still in pre-press ... I come to find that the fictional science that is so much a part of the thematic framework of the story... might actually be real - and it was his research into ...well, don't wanna give it away... The creepy aspect is... I penned that exact same duplicate concept for the story some ten years prior to Penrose et al's paper, the title of which almost to the exact letter is a turn of phrase in the novel... In a way ...it should offer the novel some 'special' relevance perhaps? We'll see... but upon reading his name there I was like...hey - ...or not.. we'll see. You know... fire was controlled all over the world at almost precisely the same evolutionary time in history - which means, it was not transmitted ( the knowledge ) by migratory information. It was literally coincidentally discovered - a fascinating aspect of archeology .. I think humanity is just like that... we're all privately postulating aspects that one or two people get to take all the credit for - ha

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak. I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past? or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have. I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. coughing and stuggling as they trundle westward down the CV rail service... Going nuts nearing PR.. Anyway, I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born do to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not... They then dive S and end up absorbed/rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan ridge, and then move back west underneath within the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether the pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth. interesting

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be. ... man. You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really? And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle... I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

Douches roll their eyes... That should be the name of that novel. Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley. Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras. Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth. So now are empirically demonstrated. But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from! Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too. One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS. The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally... One has to imagine the scene. You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change. Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement. So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen? Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ... heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt? Okay ... that might happen too. Missoula Floods leap to mind.. You know what it all strikes me as.... I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "synergistically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence? The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware. Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a, our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that. They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish. Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge. In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Well... in any case... I'm sticking with the developing plausibility that we are lacking specific atmospheric responses to underlying SST anomalies ...because the traditional correlations are breaking down due ( most probably ...) to climate change. But all that is actually less than relevant for this year... this year's prognostics of the ENSO appears to fall within the < +1 or > -1 neutrality anyway ... effectively making the question of whether there is a response or not, more likely moot. The AO may be more negative ... this is suggested by the solar nadir resonance stuff... which won't get into ... But, that means that we deal with huge gradients. Fast fast fast flow...at times more quelled to moderate more normal... All that really means is that storms are more sheared and move faster... But in a sort of arithmetic sense... that can also intuit making up for winter storm impacts in the aggregate. More nickle-dime events ... but you know... "nickle" and "dime" are relative distinctions in them selves, because one thing we are not even considering in these seasonal debates and prognostics is the DEFINITE upward empirically proven increase in precipitation quota that's happened in the last 25 years... And that ain't measurement techniques so don't even try that... a 4" mechanical deal in 1990 produces 6" now...just accept that... because the air is - yes according to climate prediction with the change - holding more water vapor. Oh god... ad nauseam..it gets impossible to do this... to do it right,.. you have to include what everyone chastises like an irreverent scorning mob outside of the Ark -