Typhoon Tip

Man... I'll tell yeah... sea-level rise is already becoming a management problem in Miami at times of 'fair-weather' high tides. that would be bad

looks like an eye on last couple of rad scans...

What's peculiar to me is that the entire suite of various Global numerical models did not initialize Dorian very well on the 12z guidance cycle ... yet, they all take it through robust strengthening over a 24 to 36 hour period beginning pretty much now through tomorrow night. I dunno if there's much merit to the following thinking but that "seems" sort of dire to me - as in ...this means that an even deeper/structurally evolved entity entering that same favorable domain space ... might attain a status that exceeds the models by the time we get to that D4/5 window and this is knocking on the door ...

Fwiw -the GEF -based NAM numbers have been elevating and in fact, are positive in the initialization as of last night. They are forecasting a brief dip back to neutral or perhaps modestly negative SD, before an even more robustly positive modality out toward week two. This observation of reversing pressure patterns is probably related to that - I haven't see then EPS rendition, but prognostics going back some ten days began to suggest that the annular mode may flip back then. I suggested that it might alleviate the melt rate ... slowing it down some. Heh, it may just rescue 2019 from tapping 2012 on the shoulder.

Wow, "... The NHC foreast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance...." Although, I have noticed a tendency by NHC to 'enhance wording' if not biasing toward more intensity when these TCs start nearing civility - probably for the better PR -wise. I mean, it's been a dearthy season of sitcom television and iPhone distractions. Hard to image after Maria and so forth that society would be complacent, but that happens. Short memories. Not to mention, these sort of ephemeral natural disasters are obscuring these days behind the growing specter of GW ... Still, they have the guidance and it's ligit - either way. That region near the Bahamas - as modeled in means from multiple sourcing - looks superb for strengthening.

Thought so too - It may be why some of the ensemble members and the actual tropical suite's shown some recent right bias in the track guidance. TPC didn't seem to comment on it as of 5am but there 11 should be out shortly -

That may be the case ... absolutely. I am an honest genuine poster that qualifies everything with confidence adjectives. As in, "suppposition/hypothesis" - honestly, I was just basing it on observations now. Perhaps V is deducing modeling - I mean duh, he says 'next two weeks' I also did wonder if there was a large K-wave event rippling through the hemisphere when I noted the dipole construction of UVM tendencies. I didn't get into it because unfortunately, folks tl;dr everything these days in lieu of instant gratification from the psychotropic addiction of media spectra, and if they are not getting overly stimulated NOW they move on. Cute ancillary aspect of high- tech that is destroying the "enjoyment" much less virtuosity of a good read - blah blah... Conceding to forces one cannot control - I just kept imagining to my self, any such event ripple passing through and the current dipole might tend to reverse? Then, residual ( because they were initially robust ) TW then time with a better Atlantic. See... KW don't absolutely mean anything. We can work with them here. ha Actually since I posted that I saw the Euro spins up a TC almost immediately leaving Africa on D 9 ... interesting or not

It's a fine analysis by a couple of mid-Century starched dry pasty robots of early era Television so concomitant with that era of American history. But man - how egregious was the sexism embedded in that? It was amusing enough when the nerd with the high-tech pointer, pants pulled up way too high around a frame that's substantially frail compared to woman of today ( raised by hormone meats no less ), had the audacity to referred to "Donna" as "she." Ooh. That pushed up a smile right there! But the hilarity kicked in when he grinds it. He actually interrupting hims self to say, "And as it - or to be more precise, I should say "she" - " ... Man, that was awesome...

By the way ... I also am wondering if we may see a more robust period of TWs squirt off western Africa over over the next two weeks at some point. Not for not, right amid the climate bell-curve anyway. However, there are some clues in play that favor that. The orientation/distribution of larger scale UVM tendencies has arrived at a dipolar negative western -central N. Atlantic, with a pervasive and coherent positive tendency over all of the African continent extending east to west along the sub-Saharan TW conduit region. There are features also embedded in that monsoonal band a bit more robustly now than prior times. Supposition/hypothesis... But my personal feeling is that ... yes, Saharan Dust/dry air has been present this year, but frankly, I've monitored that metric spanning some fifteen years and this year has not seemed appreciably worse than any other year - despite other's opinions to the contrary. Nevertheless, I am willing to nod to that mitigate as being present to some degree. What really stands out to me as causal in the dearth thus far is the lower TW frequency emerging off of Africa/in transit prior to doing so. If you mix up weak wave tendencies with SAL mitigation ( and it probably doesn't help that the QBO is statistically out of phase for greater activity this season ) that combination is more likely culpable. If we are right about a period of stronger TW ejecta off of Africa, that might give the CV region some entertainment value.

Remarkable agreement among the GFS ensemble 12-member suite provided at PSU E-Wall's web-source, that Dorian will modestly intensify through 120 hours, ending in a position abeam of midriff Florida over the western Bahamas. I haven't seen the individual EPS members but the blend is a bit more smeared comparing to the GEFS. Nevertheless, they do average a weakly bounded cyclone in that similar vicinity just E or partially eclipsing land at 120 hours. One curious note: both the EPS and the GEPs ( Canadian ensembles ) are attempting to develop what looks similar to an October 'climate low' in the mid Gulf - it's not a real Glossary expression. Anyway, the GEFs do hint of this, but it is much more coherently materialized in these other two ensemble cluster means. I'm curious why they are doing so, but have hypothesis - From late September thru early Decembers, it is not uncommon for models to attempt this sort of Gulf of Mexico vortex look. This is classic looking in that regard, the only problem is, vastly earlier than normal. Nevertheless, I suspect it wise to consider it in the same vane. The rub there is that sometimes quasi-asymmetric systems do sort of bend over initially from baroclinic instability at that time of year, in the Gulf, and then acquire warm symmetry in time. Usually up underneath an early/amplified Perennial North American Pattern ( PNAP ) construct when it does. I'm wondering if these models are over sensitive; they have been trying at least excuse imaginable on every run to suppress the mid latitude summer ... all summer long, with western heights, and structuring some sort of trough ( usually over blown) back East. It may be more than muse to consider that entity. Because the vitality and most important, reality of any such object in the Gulf at the beginning of the middle range would play a plausible role in the future of Dorian. Some of these operational versions attempt to then vaguely Donna-analog Dorian.. Heh, fun entertainment but, too many uncertainties concomitant with tropical modeling at that range, and particularly endemic to the pattern next week is uncertainty. The introduction of trough in both space and time, inducing that coastal scrape this is all new, and troughs have been tending to flatten in mid ranges --> short range all season long. Past doesn't dictate the future... What are we leaving out here ... basically .1% confidence out of 99.9% uncertainty.

Mm... No not likely. "Year round," as in 'never' gaining ice back at all? That's not likely to be a reality in anyone's lifetime. If you/we mean that N. Hemisphere summers experience transient open sea conditions; that may occur at some point. Who knows if that would be a decade. Timing such a reality would depend upon how "accelerated" the acceleration is, as per recent studies go. There will be an ice-cap-transition period where there are summers with open seas that fluctuate back to ice cover the following winters. In fact, it's entirely possible that would happen with irregularity, too - some years the summer retains a small ice-cap, and then the next year ... the summer sees it disappear again. Only to repeat either scenario. That may go on for quite a while actually, long before any kind of Paleo./eocene thermal max -related sort of redux fully takes over. Anyway, there's going to be some growing pains. These longer term changes can and do take place in shorter orders of time, and acceleration in the present climate models, as well as empirical data do send alarming signals that "shorter" may favored over longer. But, we have to remember, shorter in the context of geology is still a bit of an existential misnomer. But this is not to dissuade you It's better for the world if folks are open-minded, vigilant toward more dire plausibility, because obviously it is the dire realities that cause the extinctions - not the relative utopias.

Wondering if that NAM's "Predecessor Rain Event" should be taken seriously or not. In one school, the NAM tends to over-emphasize the NW influence of cyclonic events as a general bias tendency, over the far west and northwest Atlantic, concerning extra-tropical cyclones. Not sure if that also is true for weakly bounded and/or developing TCs that are in the process of being sucked up into the westerlies. Right now, TD 6 looms out there. It has the old single tilted CB look, with shearing going on from the N clearly suggestive via various satellite channels. But, there is a coherent llv closed circulation and it sets proximal to deep oceanic heat content that is clearly coupled to the lower troposphere ...so given any relaxation at all, that system ( I would not be surprised) may get better organized at a proficient rate. This would be a short window of opportunity - although, in a lowering SRS inside the westerly channeling blah blah. In any case, as it is moving up about 400 km or so east of the mid Atlantic, we see a NAM QPF eruption/banded in a quasi arc extending roughly mid Long Island to NE Mass. That's pretty textbook "PRE," as they tend to occur on the polar side of TCs that are in the processes of recurving into the westerlies. That definition doesn't really discuss or limit the event based upon how well structure the the involved TC is - so the extend of organization may not mater. I'm not sure the NAM is very trustworthy in this specific area of deterministic weather forecasting - I'm guessing no? But it is by definition a meso model so -

It is long been scienced and introduced via attribution studies/papers, just how sensitive the Arctic is. The question of ice morphology would certainly play into that mystique, especially when the domain is "teetering" with thermal resonance that is near melt point(s) - and there may be some variation there, too, based upon saline content. Up a degree, ice melts; down a degree; it-honeycombs/softens, but may remain in tact. I was just mentioning to Will that the NAM is rising. Those areas recently released could refreeze, but either way, the ablation rates would slow in a system that is on the thermal fence so to speak, pretty markedly over a rather narrow range of temperature input.

That's what I've been hitting at yup. We'll see. The AO mode is shifting more positive in the means. Not sure what the general level of knowledge is re that particular atmospheric index but, when it is positive, we tend to warm at mid latitudes around the 45th parallel of the Hemi, while the polar vortex strengthens. That is concomitant with height falls and cold genesis within the mean PV - so essentially diametrical to our correlations. +AO cold up there, warm down here; -AO vice versa... What I am getting at is that maybe we see a slowing coming into the end here and that bumps 2019 out of contention for top apocalypse indicator, to something more like we be dire-f'ed

This doesn't prove anything other than one's lack of any real understanding in the physical processes guiding the greater environmental system... particularly that Time is a variable in it, or any causality-link to pernicious influence in a system... And, also, this stuff above is just horribly blanket applicated and is incorrect.. No one said in the 1980s the Acid Rain was going to result in that. No one said in 1990 that the Ozone Layer meant that... Both those were warnings...both those were dealt with both at home and abroad, in global efforts to curtail their negative impacts and guess what? It worked.. Acid rain reduced by scrubbers at stack release points...and thought obviously still exists...the technology is there to prevent it/mitigate ..because of those sciences of those eras. This is complete garbage. Non-reality-based shit. Period. As far as everything else on this list... 2000 to present ... it's just too stupid to comment on.

What Invest are y'all talking about ?

NO... I don't think we do haha But... I think I figured it out - he's just saying he's gotta bad feelin' about this season... When he said 'eerily similar 1938' that felt like a comparison at the time - in which case...that would not be a very good one..

I'm not even sure which feature he's worried about? The one invest near Florida is hot, but there is no way in Hades that thing is eerily similar to 1938. There's another one in the CV transit region way out east of the Islands there that's now warm... Maybe that one ... in a week's worth of pattern modulation might ( coin flip ) take on some kind of analog... But again... the at this time predicate seems to be getting ignored in lieu of some sort of wanton melodrama or histrionics - Coastal denizens need to be prepared at all times anyway... The more I think about this ... I think what he's after is less than analytic in general,...and more about "fuzzy feellings on the back of one's neck" ... and the ole, " I got this feelin' this year could still be bad" - okay... I can dig it

SandySurvivor - If you live on the coast anywhere, the Mid Atlantic included you should always be prepared, period.... That said, at this time this is no threat to you. NO it is not. There are no Meteorological components about this that creates even a vague analog to 1938... much less anything ominous. Nothing. This statement I am making has nothing to do with complacency. Complacency is when one ignores signs - hint: THERE ARE NONE. It's scientific knowledge and education, and wisdom of what we are looking at, all available information included... that tells us there are no signs. Now, if you have some particular Meteorological insight that says otherwise... by all means, enlighten us. Otherwise, this is not eerily similar to anything other than perfect late season beach weather. That can change - but there is nothing complacent in recognizing that this is not threat AT THIS TIME. Am I gettin' thru. Living on the coast and have an elevated/static level of preparedness is just intelligent living with respect to ones environs - but you don't need to conflate that with this..

If you mean in the sense that they both rotate ? .... sure... Problem is.... 'eerily similar' says nothing - you have to describe 'why' at least a little, otherwise you're just being dramatic ...and it comes off as bush rabble. As it stands now, the governing circulation bears very UNremarkable resemblance -

I've see so many of those analysis and reanalysis and dissections .... know what it really comes down to? geometry. That's all If there is a positive object NE/E of New England ...and a negative object W .... and a TC is approaching the outer Bahamas ...that's A ... If you don't got A ... go do something else... If you do see A ( modeled and so forth...) the rest of the story is particular vectors between those two basic, governing constructs... By typology to that circumstance, you will observe obvious deep layer wind components ( ..ie, 'steering' ) moving concerted S to N ... with variations therein determining more precisely where any TC that gets "sucked in" ultimately ends up. Sandy was too much positive object and too much negative object ... causing a violent and highly anomalous "left hook" and acceleration ... The easterly anomaly into that region of the M/A during that trajectory pathway was comparable to the normal westerly zonal wind ... going the wrong way Typically...there is always some negative west - positive east arrangement of larger scaled features ...whenever there is a TC "recurving" between Bermuda and the East Coast of the U.S.... There has to be... that set up is the only way ( physically ) to scaffold a steering field/forcing .... The question simply is... magnitude of each ... and how those geometrically enhance more or less idealized trajectories ... at Long Island versus more skewed and a miss.

I'm curious if the ensemble push for an elevating NAM might help in preventing a nadir quite as deep as 2012 ... We're still likely doing a bottom 3 ranking ( or so...) either way, but if the oscillation/mode relaxes toward neutral we could be on the verge of a slowing in the melt rates. + annular modes are actually inversely temperature distributive to middle latitudes and tends to favor land-based cryo ... in addition to cooling the polar vortex domain space. But not sure about sea ice though. Particularly this early in the in the boreal autumn ...and also considering the melt- inertia, which is also a factor.

yeah...it's interesting to see 2019 be within decimals of those floor values when there's an average bottom date of Sept -16 among those other years, and we're only on August 21

This is gonna be close ...