Typhoon Tip

I dunno if that D10 Euro chart from 00z was intended for sarcasm/ribbing or what, but ...the 850 mb chart for that same time has 20 to 21 C air ribbon/plume streaking up over SNE in a narrow warm sector! So...yeah, either way.. Torch look... Hey Wiz' ... Saturday is emerging somewhat as a convection contender. There is strong evidence using the freebie/granular charts alone, for a bit of an EML expulsion to arc up over the ridge ...N of the Lakes at 48 hours, and pluming down over all of New England Friday. That's a hot day! ...probably the hottest of this stretch with 18 or 19 C and what gradient there is ...offshore. But, come Saturday, a coherent dent ripples along through eastern Ontario and it's dragging a decent mid/upper air wind acceleration right into that stagnated elevated mix layer. Just for these canvased parameters, that looks like a day to watch. Limitations would be...does that S/W up there trend a little flatter.. if so, there's probably still too much CIN ... part of the idea is that heights along the ridge rim fall just below a threshold ..signaling some tendency for the EML to expose lapse rates to what is probably still very warm/sultry air mass in place...etc..etc.. But if that gets less, than naturally the risk reduces. Right now ...I'd say NNE is under the gone either way in that over all evolution.

Heh... that's the snark that leaped to my mind too - ... like, really - 'cotton' okay

This is a simply not a summer hemisphere ... ... This below is February in July - what''s funny about that comparison is that even in July... "February" can't seem to happen without being too steeply saturated in gradient wow

good call by Scott... sharp clearing from the N. wonder if we'll be in an out of that band this week... Seems the ridge doesn't really want to commit to a rim very far N of ORD-BOX latitude which in addition to all ... may also be a convective conveyance

yeah ...saw that too - it's why I'm not willing to "86" ( pun intended...) the MOS numbers entirely. It's just that I saw a lot of upper 80s and am wondering at what point to pull the plug on that.

AMOC flipped... no question. It's been suggested by the multi centennial curve .. .nesting periodicities on the order of 30 to 40 decades between warm and cool oscillations, that we should see the AMOC flip to a tripolar north Atlantic and that's prevalent at this time/the current SST distribution is probably not a mere coincidence. Related to.. cold water is cutting back west N of the G-string ... N of the continental shelf out there... Nick mentioned something a couple weeks ago and it may be related, but the haline cycle could be impacting the fluid viscosity of the ocean due to huge exhaust flow rates off Greenland melt/fresh water. A conveyor weakener..where even fractions of mass changes can and may be exacerbating the anomalies, too. Either way, the -NAO is correlated ... which again, time and study to positively link it to that - and it's a hard science because the NAO can be negative when the -AMOC or +AMOC... It's a matter of frequency - ------- Perhaps Jerry, ...so far, appears to be a pretty significant temperature bust. Oh ...it's not stopping governments or anything ha, but.. unless something changes, ALL models busted pretty badly with the ceilings ...which is a factor directly impacting temperatures. We'll see how the afternoon evolves. Thing is... the MOS didn't get it right either. If it was going to be this inundating, ... heh.

https://www.aol.com/article/weather/2019/07/01/freak-hailstorm-buries-guadalajara-mexico-in-3-feet-of-ice/23760878/?ncid=txtlnkusaolc00000992%3Fncid%3Dtxtlnkusaolc00000992&fbclid=IwAR2a1CRnvhFKzuy-6hSNmAOIP7TdAPzkP1O7LcEEN-Hiuta8pg81-f1i35o#

-NAO does not correlate the same way for New England in JJA btw - ...Brian alluded to this, and if you look at his product's details you can see how that look could supply us with plenty of very warm potential ... also, MCS/convection chances. The 582 dm isopletch is not usually how you run cold air through here. And probably of more importance, have the mean that high means there are members that are sweltering in there too. Re the D10 Euro,... the EPS and Euro rarely deviate that much so I'm not sure ( but suspect less confidence ) in that one model cycle meaning anything, seeing as both broke continuity to flash that look. We'll see if it has legs but ... one may not be so quick to pounce on a look merely because you want it. Just sayn' ...

GFS is either going to look very good ... or, not very good this time Sunday when looking back at MOS performance this week. Haven't seen the 12z Euro operational run ...but the synoptic evolution for the week across the 00z run painted a hot picture for the 4th and 5th. 90s those two days... Now, I didn't see any 'cloud' products from that model - in fairness to debate, it may be muting temps. However, with amplifying mid and upper heights and WSW component, the climo on those parametrics is usually less ceilings/more insolation. Contrasting ...the 12z GFS MOS is cloud almost at all times from late tomorrow to Sunday morning.. I think...well, wonder if the GFS is having a problem with DP and huge theta-e loading that's trying to steam bath its way up into the NE as the week goes on? The GGEM and the GFS both doing something bizarre over the weekend, ...they are morphing what appear to be 'heat lows'/thermal troughs along the lee side of the Apps and the coastal plain up to SNE, into baroclinic lows... This, with zero baroclinicity between Buffalo and NYC... All but 972 to 976 dm thickness everywhere. It's also got QPF saturation in that same area in that torrid morasse. I'm not sure I buy any of it.. The GFS MOS has collapsed the high temperature prospects from 90 and 93s to barely limping passed the mid 80s, and fact, fails now to tough 90 at all in some cases through this Saturday...with 850s over 18 C and 570s thickness and 588 ridge cap... mmm... weird. I'm interested in seeing the Euru here...

Meh... some years ... months are different - shocking revelation! June last year has zero bearing on June this year. If anyone has a modicum of philosophical awareness, it may occur to them that the comparison really has equal value to that: Zero. It's tantamount to saying June last year is not June this year - right...got it. Thanks. We had a temperate June ... yay. While most of us in here discussed that as a very likely plausibility ... back at the end of May (btw), I guess now we are stunned that June was banal for heat? I guess.. Going forward, July very likely will start above normal. How much exactly remains to be seen... But, I could see the first 1/4 of the month finishing solidly above.

Having said that ... the 00z Euro looked pretty damn hot for Thur and Frid this week.. Just going by the synoptic layout of basic parameters... looks like 95 is doable those two days, and probably Thur night would be one of those 80 in the urban center type of deals. The American models are ..as usual, running out and contriving gradations to temper things if they can't see them actually in existence ... it seems like - it's figuratively as though the modelers embedded permutation genesis algorithms deliberately to f'up heat. The GFSX MOS is 90 or 91 for four days one cycle, then 85 the next... I mean.. I'm not just complaining for the sake of heat mongering... I wonder what this is going to mean in the winter with this model.

The trend to dampen the mid month cool down was both expected ...and prevalent in the 00z cycle... It's subtle but there - It may not get 'hot' per se...

According to the GSFX MOS.. it's projecting marginal heat wave prospects N-E of roughly EWR ... spanning multiple sites. What's interesting, albeit tedious, is that the synoptic complexion ( 00z ) was/is the warmest 'looking' from that particular model ... going back several cycles. Yet it's machine interpretation chooses that cycle to nick temps off. Otherwise, status quo. Looks like very warm ... hot for some tastes, while quite plausibly failing to register a heat wave. I was just looking at the 2-meter progs on the GFS and it comically puts up 90/89/91/95 ... seemingly on-purpose, for ASH. I gotta figure at this time of year the 'correction vector' is pointed upwards; we can almost perfunctorily add a degree to all these. Man... if it's not rasping ridges it's shirking derivatives... unbelievable. We could be sitting on the surface of the f'n sun and this guidance will have 6,003/89/7210/6534

You work outside ...?

On the fence. We'll see if it has legs... I've seen that since April in that range - more or less what I was talkin' about. But the look then goes on to a warm complexion, just falling shy of getting hot - and by that we mean fairly and objectionably > normal. It seems we're not slated to historic heat... but "perhaps" the models are seeing what reason is causing banal/uninspired summer warmth by over doing it on troughs in that range. But the summer's young, and there's certainly time to get a bigger heat plume going than we've seen. The 12z GFS is now on board for low end heat wave this week to ring in the month...

Seems to be reflecting in the 12z GFSX MOS ... EWR/BDL/FIT are officiating wed-thur-fri... 'see what the Euro throws at us -

Why ... I'll be ... the 12z GFS run thrown' less rocks at the skull of the ridge -

Kidding with the 'early autumn' jest, of course... But, it it just seems the extended range modeling tenor, for much of the mid to end spring and now entering into summer times thus far, has been persistently collapsing the mids and extendeds into patterns that are not very well conformed to summer synoptics. Unsure why that is the case... Lord knows I have no shortage of hypothesis to explain why. This new rolled out version of the delux GFS is ( by the way ...) imho ... not a Good Forecast System. It should be dubbed the N-GFS. You can really see my personal frustration with this model ... illustrated via the comparison between its D6, ... against either the GGEM ( don't get me started on that model), the Euro, or both. The GFS ablates ...erodes... 'rasps' tops of ridge arcs down flat as a bias. iIn its defense... at any point-forecast in time .. it could certainly go onto win. But, this week's "possible" if marginal heat wave suffered in the GFS the whole way, and I feel pretty strongly that it is more likely so than less, related to it's heredity with longitude bias/stretching the flows in mid and extended ranges. It's always done this. The modelers ( to their supposed credit ...) probably don't go in and try to fix that specifically. That wouldn't end well ... to do so would probably gum up the works. The longer termed goal is to create a global forecast system that arrives to the right'est plausible picture, out in time, organically... Which is to say, just allow the physics to holistically perform. If they start parameterizing this, and using blind correction factors that ... that's bad for a lot of philosophical reasons. Anyway... I those imagaes above are not exactly showing an egregiously different appeal...but it's just enough to annoying. I also wonder about later in the summer, when the season really does begin to wane.

Bit of an "intuitive no-brainer" really ... I mean it's always good to corroborate common-sense based supposition with empirical evidence, ... but liquid water has more energy per unit volume compared to free air - liquid on ice is a more effective delivery of energy to the ice than would be the ice-conditioned air/environment immediately in contact in the glacial basal regions. This is like after-school Mr Wizard's fun physical sciences for 4th grader material.... I know, but that conceptually can be blown up to the scale of these magnificent systems - physical rules don't change just because a Greenland's ice is awesome. not that you think so... just sayn'

You mean like this ... https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/14/us/greenland-sudden-ice-melt-wxc/index.html ...course, it is CNN -

Mishandling the MJO ? ... like the distribution of upper level divergence ?? Heh, seems the GFS does this every May though... I wonder if it mishandles the MJO every May... Actually, it seems to me the GFS ( and GGEM for that matter ) both start curving the isobars cyclonic over the western Caribbean too often beyond 200 hours, regardless of month anywhere between April and early December - you may be right about the MJO but I also wonder if it's just an artifact of those particular physical models way out in time, also. In any case, the prediction is near normal for this year.... They're predicting "two to four" (whatever that means...) majors canes, which presumably mean 6 or so total... and 12 sub cane TCs... blah blah but, these numbers didn't mean shit in 1992

The whole climate-change causality-crisis circuitry is wired by a particular failure in the ballast of most of those walking the Earth. This species has difficulty accepting threat and/or peril ... unless it is directly perceivable via at least one of the five senses. Here's the interesting aspect; it is not really the fault of humans ... All biology responds to sensory input. Global Warming's effective destruction moves too slowly, is too subtle, when moving daily temperatures short decimals, from year to year, means "oh my god!" That sense of urgency is intrinsically incongruous with lacking perception of threat. Gives rise to a catch-22; because it is precisely an immediate response,to a threat they cannot readily perceive, that is necessary. By the time GW-related climate change is palpable to the senses in that way ... you're dying from the apocalypse. "Oh, seems GW was re -" ...death gasp. gone. Simply put... tell someone to get off the train tracks ...they may take a few moments to look around, eventually stepping off... maybe not. That same person sees the train? They dive off those track... with the lithe dexterity of a paratrooper! Speaking with Professors at MIT and BU ... the consensus among peers is that this problem is as much a sociological one as it is chemical. It's a functional conclusion that bears both intuition as well as an explanation that fits empirical data.

7" here in NW Middlesex country ... Just made the winter storm warning criteria ... heh, the 8th seed in the NBA... "National Blizzard Association" playoffs Now 38" on the season at mi casa

Heh... this was too well advertised and also empirically too larger in scale to fit with the 'little critter' concept - Bozart et. al. unless you just meant that for colloquialism

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting