Typhoon Tip

Looks like we've entered the phase of development where the zygote TC spits out meso-vortices... Meanwhile, hi res vis imagery looks animate what appears to be a mid-level curl beginning to more observerably fold cyclonically inward about 60 or so naut miles ENE of the midriff Bahama archipelago - The models will likely play the blind initialization game in the initializations; until they're nailing down something more of an entity in that matrix ...any and all behavior obviously comes along with a caveat emptor. IT does bring up an interesting question for these early stages of development with these things... The tropical physical model of TC's is one heavily coupled to the sea/llvs ... but, it does some times seem as though the mid levels have a role in where the low lvl centers get "picked" hm

There was no "party" to begin with. I remember when I was 14 years old... the weather forecaster would mention a snow storm or tornado along the way of their broadcast, through a din of qualifiers signifying remoteness ... But I didn't often hear much less register those qualifiers in my auditory sensory processors in my shimmering sophistication as an observer back then... The next days always dawned jilted - Going forward... a would-be Humberto (?) is a good candidate for a looper. I realize no model is really doing that, but, I could see this thing being reasonably well-handled over these next three days ...then it starts moving ENE away...only to get abandoned by the trough as it flattens over the top of the west-Atl Basin STR. It then moves ESE then S ... talking some 8 days out... the models having shown poor ability to adjust/correct toward such a behavior for the obvious reasons. Speculation...

Theres very likely to be a tropical cyclone their guys .. that’s the least uncertain part.

Typical behavior of a sensitive system at the nadir - it's responding to everything

So long as one is careful not to conflate "surprise" with "destruction" I mean it would only help to get folks under cover. Otherwise, it wouldn't really matter whether there is element surprise... A category 3 hurricane moving that fast, whether seen coming or not is sides the point; it is doing the same consequential shit where ever it decides to encounter land... Like all water access terminals and real-estate ventures spanning the last 70 years from Brownsville to Portland, most of these regions were expanded profligate with only passive concern if awareness at all to the relative rarity of a 1938 ...or a Galveston 1901 ... or a Labor Day bomb... Andrew... Maria ... etc etc... and well, these things are simply going to happen again. The present infrastructure of the upper MA and S. SNE regions is an order of magnitude more valuable/expanded in terms of economic equivalency ... such that proportion to era would make a 1938 redux the superior loss in these modern times. So yes and no... these other relativity make that no sense of ease or comfort even if one gets to know it's coming ...

Assuming it wobbles N up the coast spanning three languid days as the ridge lobes over top like that - big if ... - that flatter correction of the Lakes trough takes New England out of the running anyway. Might be more of a swipe up Nick's way in this type of solution... but, this one ain't stickin' either.

It's not a typical pattern... There's not very much climate -based precedence for getting a hurricane up this far N comparing the totality of the synoptic evolution of either this 00z, the 12z ...or their blended solution(s).

Just think ... There was once a time when it was absurd to think of the world as round. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of contraptions that could fly. There was once a time when it was absurd to think of going to the moon. Just like it is now absurd to imagine any technological reality where weather prediction has become a thing of the past. Why, ...because of the advances in Quantum sciences leading to atmospheric momentum guide technologies... Yes, in addition to circumventing the Light Speed limit as described by General Relativity ... a nifty ancillary "precipitant" ( haha ) ability is the advent of the "weather modification net." A global systemic control that dictates the rain and sun cycles around an idealized application that ( of coure) falls well short of any reason for worry. Completely banal and uninspired garden watering, followed by utterly dependable utopic mixtures of sun, clouds andtepid air. That's what everyone wants. If such a reality were to envelop the world tomorrow - just supposin' for a second. .. - I wonder. About how long do we think this ilk of social media would continue to depot internet pass-time ? Oh... I give it a two years... By then, then, most that sojourn the past will finally have grown tired of reiterating the same sagas. And the newer generations that never knew of a world that weather-mattered, having socialized their interest elsewhere, will no longer matriculate in and interest will have extinguished ... just like everything that exists in a Universe intrinsically limited by finite time - including ... the Universe its self - eventually does.

Not sure what the other Mets feel about this new "Bahama bomber" potential ... but the more I look over things, this appears to be a greater confidence that a TC will be handled, with limited/no confidence should the former actually happen... That is a highly unusual total handling in the larger synoptic scope/evolution ...noooot typically how we get a TC to run the course up the Eastern Seaboard. In fact, not many climate players are really even identifiable. Typology: ...just off the top of memory... 1 .. there is usually a 300 to 200 mb escape jet running ENE over/out of the NE U.S. region 2 .. some form of negative anomaly is settling into the 90W-80W region nearing mid latitudes over eastern N/A 3 .. some form of blocking ridge ( be it anchored in planetary wave and/or nodal cut-off ...) is lingering between 60W and 70 W over the western Atlantic Basin. ... We really only vaguely at best can identify these structures in whole based upon the operational Euro from D3.5 through D8... What the Euro is attempting to do, is pin the fledgling cyclone near the vicinity of the Bahamas and bide time ... waiting to evolve ridging and associate lower tropospheric surface +PP N of the system. This lobes over the top, ...finally, out there in the inherently less likely to even verify time frame ( anyway ) the western side of that configuration at last happens to set up a steering field to finally bring it up the coast. ... I mean, objectively, you see where I'm going...? I'd put this entirety at low likeliness at best. I suppose it is not impossible.. Fact of that matter, the models don't "really" model things that are "im"possible. Perhaps less likely ...sure.. for whatever reason. Anyway, I'd more inclined to suggest that if said ridging does lobe over top like that ...this thing might end up bumped agonizingly slowly into the interior SE somewhere ...

Actually ... to be fair ... every model has at one time or another, depicted a spin up in that region going back some four days- it's just not been very consistent, nor did they have the benefit of having an actual disturbance there to lend confidence in anything other than a phantom - it just makes it hard to know 'what' is the real origin. That's the problem with a fractal factorization running along with any propagated dynamic system - some emergence is legit... others, not so much. Anyway, I've been looking out over the CV traffic in the models and just like every year between late August onwards ... every guidance has instantiated a different TC at different times, both within their own discontinuities ...and with respect to one another - it's that buck shot time of year in the tropics. Every seabird's wake vortice seems to trundle off into the history books - It's been a good teaser year, though, so far.. Because we have this modeling earnest trough carve-out tendency in the extended at least excuse imaginable going on...and every time that happens... if there happens to be a phantom within grasping range it becomes the pen for the posting author.

This home-grown TC in the Euro from 00z ... now that's one that should be interesting - It's within 5 days in that particular verification wheelhouse and though that model tends to be stingy with initiation/TCs ...it's actually got a disturbance to latch onto - on going.

No more or less crazy than this for the same time period..

kind of funny ...all these qualifiers why a day 9 or day 10 is more intriguing cuz - ..of course it is ... heh.. I've give that position/TC there about 10% chance of being real ( intensity notwithstanding..), over the base-line 4%, more typical of at that time range. which of course means there's 90% chance to be excited over just about anything else. ... But, it's a hind-sight 2020 game of 'see' - cuz if it's there, the conclusion of foresight will of course not include the dump luck shit spray factor of models too often having phantoms there at that time range and therefore once in a while will seemingly get dapple right.

I'm wondering if there's some pan-systemic nature to the planetary system of teleconnectors, air, sea and land, that "gestalt" favors those "MJO wave" looks at this time of year(s). Thing is, I'm not ready to doubt those looks out of hand because we've actually hit some of those. Most of the time we end up with something flatter/tamer, more climate-like in terms of autumn amplitude, but there have been some oddities increasing in frequency, too. For example, there have been more October verified patterns either conducive to snow, or supportive of, than I can remember ever occurring through the previous 25 years before 2000. In fact, 1/3 to 1/2 of those years since, and I'd be willing to throw those white thanks givings in recent years into the mix of the "October" distinction - I mean obviously the atmosphere doesn't give a shit about Julian calendar temporal designations when it's cycling through its anomalies... etc.. Obviously if one is concerned with TCs affecting the eastern seaboard, some sort of negative anomaly ivo the OV while there is a western Atlantic Basin subtropical ridge helps your cause. TC gets guided into the key slot region of the outer Bahamas and then the perennial over-zealous PNAP structure completes the relay and there we go. But, seeing as we seem to spend an inordinate amount of time setting that quintessential pattern in the models, it also seems we have one on the D11 charts at all times. So I guess in short .. I wonder if the models are like setting themselves up for over-production of TCs in the east because of their predilection for these pattern orientations.

Occasionally we'll get a click-by shooting by some nimrod troll that's too stupid to realize they aren't making the impact they think they are, and are in fact only sounding like this guy ... But those aren't really the typical forum user. Most of y'all and the regulars in here really are not the target of these moguls and/or celebrities of the denial-sphere. They're targeting their constituencies, telling them what they wanna here. Morality and ethics have nothing to do with it. They have an easily life if their constituencies are happy - and what makes them happy? This clear and obvious logically flawed vomit they spew from their bully pulpits...

You do realize I was being a sarcastic asshole - right ... heh. Will might be a better regular user to ask the latter question. I'm not much of a stat guy but... say, 12 storms threatening the EC > Cat 2 ... that's like what, over the last 100 years ? 100/12 = 8 1/3 years so using the 'dopes linear regression' technique that means we should be threatened on the EC ( some where )a little less than once per decade by a cyclone worth counting/discussion ( lest the models bust! ) ... and I'm not sure those feed in numbers are even right ... Just seemin' like they are Problem with doping studies and then rendering them to the public with mighty turns of "entertaining" phrase and/or convincing pen in general is that we tend to end up with Trumpian presidencies when we do, so we gotta be careful these days... That, and of course we have to keep in mind that hurricane statistical topography is anything but evenly distributed... Some decades in that span had like 6 inside of 7 years and other eras seemed eternally dearthed ... Young doe-eyed Mets were born lived, and died in a drug related vehicular incident before another one repeated ...

This season may set an under-the-radar record ... ... for number of ghost 1938 reduxes in the GFS models - it's a little known distinction kept track of by NHC ... how many times this duck hunt happens every years -vs- how many times it actually does. ... The third column over in the Excel spreadsheet's header read, "Weather-related social-media's buy-in head nodding"

Mmm... The problem with Trump is Trump ... not political in nature; political distinction left the discussion ( or should long have by now ) for anyone with a modicum of intellect and moral/ethical awareness for quite awhile. Wrecking balls of social stability can be red, white, orange, purple, yellow, Democrat, Republican or Libertarian.. Regardless, they are only detrimental, and that is true, with or without the invocation of political orientation - that is the problem. ...end discussion. If you can't stand Republicans or Democrats or Libertarians, fine ... you need to fight for candidates that do not represent what Trump brings to the office of the presidency. Get it? jesus christ. Sorry, this is not directed any one in particular 'cept the straw man. But I do believe that Society is already getting their modes of awareness centered around the above realization as it's becoming clear in a spectrum of ways.

00z and 06z oper. GFS runs finish what Dorian failed to do ...

This thing reminds me of a bigger version of the 2005 Dec bomb that folded the tropopause and blasted SE zones with 90 mph wind gusts... Man...that storm was so unique. 15" of snow fell in 4 hours with almost no wind in interior Metrowest... meanwhile, lightning/thunder sheet rains flipped to snow during a macroburst ( so to speak ) that p-waved under the vort max and basically tarred and feathered everything in white flashing - whole thing was over in 5 hours and rendered to a peaceful undercut red sky sunset ...

Yeeeah, but in your defense ... that's sooo typical of that administration's tact - or has been to date... Fire anyone of rank and file, that offers the mere impropriety of opposition to the perspectives of the cadre, in lieu of hiring anyone that in fact supports said intentions - What do we call that class ? FAscism! Very good - y'all get a A. What? Are we in the weeds - we can't f'n see this happening? Heh... western civilization ( actually, human beings) really now has a substantive reason for doom prophesy. The era of the street-corner sign waving, auto-dismissive cookery is gone. Our species is earmarked for extinction, or in the least ... a population correction, one so magnificent as to be too untenable and therefore ... escaping any affecting/effective meaning - hence the ease in denial. It's easy to deny something that has no meaning - perfect catch-22. So, lets clap hands chew bubble gum and watch porn - cuz as Ebonic wisdom always most succinctly put, we be f'ed anyway.

Right ..haha... wouldn't ...or shouldn't expect any other cheesiness -

I love those naming conventions up there ... they're awesome! Man, for years I've been tongue-in-cheeking over why-for the "pedestrian" designation for these memorable phenomenon - seems sort of ironical. But then again ... I suppose it could be like the ole horror cinema trope, where the creepy girls at the end of the hall in the dimly lit pal say, "Come play with us Danny..." It's Hurricane Sally, and she wants you to come play, " ...For ever and ever and ever.." I mean - who out side the delusional realm of Political Correctness ( ...yeah, it's called 'reality' - check it out some time... ) would ever argue that it almost made more sense when they were always just female names ... Of course, back in the arrestingly self-aware 1950s thru early 1970s of mid 20th Century culture... Excluding the vagarious unpredictable tempest of the feminine intent and purposes for a moment ... why not name hurricanes "ball buster".. Or, how 'bout "head lopper," or just "head-roller". I mean you know... something indicative. "Island denuder where dip-shits developed a society and now we all have to feel sorry for them'er" ... Let's get creative here! Kidding of course... yes yes one is compelled to compassion for splintered foliage wrapped in building guts and body pieces... Wreckhouse warning - awesome. Gee, wonder how/why they cobbled that expression together.

Yeah..y'all got a humdinger of a hybrid transitioning to extra-tropical Nor'easter, huh -