Typhoon Tip

BD impressive on 00z FRH grid ... flag strainer sustained chill into Logon abruptly ... 60 deg at 20 kts 93 73 93 wed-Fri

Euro edged hotter... Now bringing the dragon's ribbon over our area... This is a bit different than the 00z ..and prior cycles, too, which had that suppressed enough that we edged 18 C's at 850.. hot but not the same as this 22 C look for Saturday. Also, it's decided to wait until tornado Tuesday to evac the air mass change - ... I don't think the trough in SE Canada is right though... Forgetting everything else, that's a typical bully depth by this model in that range/location. Annywho, this run is still offering very little margin for error but gets the heat in here. ... oy. Hey, if we get to Wednesday this time and it's still gung-ho...I'd feel a lot a better about 97

Yeah ... I get it about the 99 versus 89 thing. I was just musing with PF last week ... it's on my bucket list to walk off an airplane into 120 F ... It's no different than wanting to visit the Eiffel Tower, the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids... the 72" snow on the level after compaction winter pack - ... In that same vein, to be able to amble around the town with the car dash at 104 or 106 knowing that in reality it's 101 clad, is just something to tell the grand kids. But most of all ... knowing is part of life - and one cannot really know something unless they're there. We can always live vicariously through others but ...there's nothing like first hand accountability. Accept for thunderstorms ... I'm weird about that.. I'd rather be situated out side the CB's impact space so that I can see it's majesty against the back ground, and watch all the nerd cloud parcels bubbling away with electricity dancing inside and out of their nebular plumes. Once underside... it's not that same as the cool appeal of a sideways cob-webbing snowfall, where you start to feel disappointed when you know it's ending. With bangers... I just want to get back into the sun so I can see the cloud again..

Actually ... good point. I was thinking wrt to overall structure of the system and intensity.. But, prolific rain as an individual metric - I'm less than certain of there ...

I mean I'd plan for heat ... but we've seen more clad set ups before... This has a bit more uncertainty to it. That's all .

Oh... ah huh ... Barry! I was thinking Barre Falls flood plain ... jesus - right right. GF asked what to expect in NOLA and I told her ... not much. My thing is/was ... "Barry" never looked like it had it's act together. Now I'm not impugning NHC's efforts; I suspect their hands were cuffed by the scenario. The "ifs" could not be discounted, and should that system have quasi RI'ed the liability was priceless. That's just one of those situations where you have to over produce and let the chips fall where they may. Better to be made fun of and only thought of as a fool... than to have had that happen and removed all doubt Monday quarter -back

mm... GGEM is trying to sneak shirk the heat tho - ... nicking here and there on height and width of the thing... May just be model noise... but you know, like I've been sayin all along.. I don't like the flat look to the ridge, and the fact that we are so close to the jet/westerlies that this has marginal room for error. If this some turns into an 89/74 pig bummer ..wouldn't shock me just the same. No room for error is bit too pricey for modeling performance at D5+

I'm sorry ... "Barry fails" - what does that mean

Yeah I was just looking at the 60 hour on the FRH grid when I was looking that over ... but now I see looking at that synoptics where the chilly Thrusday comes from.... Interesting, ... it almost appears to create the BD out of nothing...Its not like it cross NE Maine and then cuts all the way down like is more typical... It more like instantiates it right in the area...

I was reading about the 'male style' for 2019 and apparently cargo shorts are dead... Honestly reading the article ... it seemed like the proponents of fashion have just always hated cargo shorts and are a bit overly thrilled to announce them as dead, claiming that chinos are the way now. Be that as it may, ... but, I still think it's more of a generation thing. Gen-Xers are still doing what they've always been comfortable doing, which cargos... Xers are taking over middle age now ... Just like our fathers - they didn't deviate much either... I'm sort of tacitly aware of fashion ... mainly because I have 8 sisters and half of them are artists so... that pretty much forced me to be aware of it.. Anyway, the Millennials have adopted the flip flop and chino shorts look... which ...ironically? That is really the "orientation fluidity" of the 1980s ( to put it PC ). Yeah ... that's right. And it's interesting how the standard/fad for masculine identify has taken on a look that is actually reversed in the past three decades.

Actually has thickness already 577 dm with 19.5 C at 850 at 00z Thursday... This model is interestingly anxious to get the heat cookin' despite being typically cooler -

LOL fair enough - btw, speaking of Wednesday already... the new NAM is a perfect day set bare-backed upon a leather seated 1976 Chevy Malibu -pre A.C. style.. It has T1 of 28 C and 850s already over 18 C at 18z at Logan on a west wind... it'll be interesting to see what the GFS does but that's a wee-bit different.

Good point by Brian... It's like the old mantra " Don't focus on the eye of the hurricane " ...sorta I mean, if it's 96/76 ... it doesn't matter if one's trophy has the 101 etched into it - Also, I'm not totally convinced these BL prognostic metrics are improved my self. Take Thursday on the 06z version: it's got 68 F at 18z, under 576 dm thickness no less ... over all of southern vt/nh/and interior mass and the coasts, due to what looks like a spurious overly 'bent back' surface pressure pattern. A set up it certainly then googly gulps in chilly Atlantic air deep into the interior. I just ...I dunno - The problem is, the antecedent periods don't support this happening ...so where does it come from...? I think it's the model's thermodynamic handling causing too much viscosity in the BL from saturation - plausibly ...too much DP and or too dry of DP before modest advection takes place. I'm spit balling I admit, but Thursday looks dubiously too chilly given all ... I can understand Logan ..eastern coastal zones and some warm mitigation from SSE flow ahead of a diffused warm frontal structure(s) sure... but that appears to strain credibility and that's BL handling-caused imho. Tell ya what ...if it happens... mad kudos!

Yeah...so it's not gonna be hot ... "phew" ? While I wouldn't necessarily trust the gaudier numbers ...particularly at this range, when things can tweak and limit it to just miserable as opposed to actually dangerous... I think maybe we should all still plan on a bad couple few days here ...

You and your staff are certainly already privy to the following ... But, this model's immediate ancestor seriously and embarrassingly gaffed last year's summer heat episodes with ungodly ... hell-bound top errors in the boundary layer. And it wasn't just heat... It blew it in some of those cold cyclone systems in March 2018 as well... having 3.5" of QPF in CCB, with temperatures of 39 over DPS of 32 - type absurdities. Question: I read the PDF/demo of the then FV3' and how it was argued a better performer, but that performance appears to be focused in deep layer tropospheric steering and synoptic stretching/progressive corrections. I'm not sure if any improvements in the BL thermal handling was included? If not ... heh... should we assume the heredity for suspect BL handling is still there??

HA! I was just thinking 'hot saturday' when I finally got a chance to look things over. Probably not an analog though - Yeah, that's notable alright! Thing is... ( not that anyone asked or cares ) but I still don't like the look of the models. It's good that the Euro and GGEM finally relaxed that ridic looking massive spatial trough they engineered over SE Canad up through the D. Straight regions of the hemisphere. I mean ... man, it looked like late January 1994 ... in July! Nope - ... so, that much was good/expected. But, the heat its self and it's parental circulation still seems a bit dice to me. It'll work out, provided that razor's edge/no margin for error modeling can persist and verify. It's just hard to believe the models will pick up on such a fragile set up and no perturb it before it can happen. Seems like we're trying to pull that off though, huh - But man ... talkin' + 14 on climatology on a tool that is heavily weighted to climate the farther out in time. By the time you get D6/...7 ...seems that may suggest that the heat signal's gotta be pretty heavy. interesting... Unless the calculation for the GFSX MOS is changed ... I dunno.

Frontalysis cfront limping thru. Prolly DP drain ... but may also get nocturnally masked. Tomorrow should be drier by a little once mixed out

18z says bite it! It tries to "cool down" but really evolves the heat wave into a Bahama Blue pattern... Conveyor/ deep train coastal stride flow all the way up... 575 to 580 thickness.... probably replete with brilliant white narrow CBs oriented into training bands. That sort of pattern isn't "hot" per se...but you can move without dripping. So...sorta... it's just the type of look ( apparently ) everyone in this social media either dreads/fears or pretends to... But.... being that it's in the deep range, doesn't inspire a lot of conidence -no

My guess is the models are over playing the "cold shot" .... and it's really more like returning to normal. They've been trying to carve out February into eastern Canada since ...well, February, and won't stop in that range. They've been so-so correct - just having to back off a little in doing so..

Euro really appears to be in process of engineering its way out of any heat ... Trying desperately - It's got February -NAO construct now... okay -

5-day heat wave, 92-96 style, with lolly 98's... Thursday's unrealistically cool given that synopsis ... otherwise that makes it into the running. My guess is ... typical SW flow cloud contamination, which usually ends up with more sun intervals than modeled.

Ah... we'll see - If the 12z Euro and GGEM continue their heat band wagon. Thing is, the GFS' 500 mb evolution would also support a BD into central/eastern regions early Saturday...but, it would likely be of shallow variety, and given the scale of that ridge amplifying/particular geometries there in exerting from the west ..the flow would wash it out and probably if one did occur you'd end up with a 5pm high in S. NH... Gee - maybe I should actually go look at the surface charts now - haha. Anyway, just the 500 mb looks like an impressive heat signal for the lower Lakes to upper MA and at least as far N as SNE... late Thur thru Sun

Hmm... big H500 mb changes on the GFS operational over late week/weekend... Cannot honestly say I thought that run was going to do this -

Mmm ... I don't like marginal set-ups/support (synoptically) for expecting heat in New England. Completely different phenomenon ... but thinking iffy big heat synoptics for New England will ever succeed ... is similar to springs and BDs. Anyone who thinks that will succeed is somewhere between naive and hard-headed. Heat in general ( and I'm not talking 91 F backyard variety ... I mean big numbers) has too many reasons where IF it can it WILL fail. The models just aren't good enough to preclude where they should be doing so... May sound frustrated, and frankly.. it is. But, it does stack up against statistics - there needs to always be a less correction factor for any warmth signal here. Our region reserves warm busts for 32.1 in the winter. Having ranted ... yeah, it's funny that we are only D4 and D5 from the door stop of potentially big numbers and the Euro and GGEM are still trying to do that... The GFS's a whole 'nother annoyance. It's just gone right back to the May thing ... with that least excuse imaginable to carve out a lower Maritime trough and lock us in summer-death NW deep layer flow apparently as eternal damnation... I don't trust that any more or less than the other idea... I'd just got 87 to 92 and let the chips fall where they may...

No… I mean you've jinxed it.