Typhoon Tip

mm Hm... Yup...and, we have some towering pop-corn kernels already prior to noon suspended over the Worcester Hills up along the spine of the Monads... Usually that's marker for conditional instability... Some of those towers (est) already look over 12K feet from eyeballin' We've had a marginal vertical temperature profile all along but today we have ~ 5 deg of additional DP in the lower layers. The NAM's been flirting with QPF for today and tomorrow actually... Summer garden variety -

I don't deserve any credit - I repeat ...no credit. Mainly... because I did not cobble together a seasonal forecast late last summer/autumn. What I did instead ... was drive-by snark post pot-shots at other's gallant, back-of hand pressed to forehead over glazed eye efforts. I mean... veritable Master's caliber dissertations, replete with advanced word processing and state of the art graphical annotations... and me, blithely and assholier than thouly reducing them in two flippant sentences. Nice. That's the way I roll - Kidding... still, I distinctly recall warning contributors often enough, that gradient saturation, a paradigm shift that has occurred since ~ 2000 and continues to become more destructively interfering as the decades click away ... is muddling the climatology of longer termed multi-seasonal teleconnector packages. The ENSO relative numbers and how they have come to correlate ( hypothetical/supposition ) in the past, .... don't work. They didn't work in the powerhouse mega ENSO ( warm phase ) several years ago; and in fact, ...papers were submitted and peer reviewed successfully noting the startling lack of correlative impacts Globally by one of ...if not the, hot ENSO events ever recorded. ...etc...etc... It becomes less likely ( intuitively..) that minoring standard deviation events could impact the circulation of the Global very meaningful, when the massive momentum contributors, could not. ( I have physical hypothesis why that is, too ) I for one am frustrated by GW/climate change...and the continued reticence to even acknowledge that we are living in times that are increasingly rendering all heretofore correlative expectation-sciences ... less than germane. Perhaps not entirely ... please don't read this as absolute. As we know ... the gears of the environment are lubed by balancing forces ...So...threshold and partials are in play at all times...such that result sets both do and do not represent suggestively... At times, demonstratively so, at others...seeming to have returned to the prior expectation...and so on and so forth. But, given the longer time spans...eventually the new paradigm does take over - we're not there yet... But, I do believe that veracious attempts, from the ranks of aficionados that are fortunate enough to have been born and live in an era that provides them any sort of pulpit at all... ( where social media's "peer review" process is tantamount to popularity politics ), to the exulted societal offices of the science... I'm sensing we are all being bamboozled by our own lack of consideration to the changing paradigm that for some reason... no one considers when they engineer their expectations. So how do we do it? Don't... It's irrelevant. I know it's an interest area... but the sad reality we've come to is that party favor seasonal outlooks are a distraction to the real dystopian storm on the horizon. In 50 years... approximately mid way through the big kill-off ... is this going to matter? ( more snark relax...but, ) if we turn to examining seasonal variance as it relates and is pertinent to the Global crisis...that has some substantive value in it. But hell... this is an open forum to the public hoi polloi...and that's not hand-cuffing students to their desks... it's an entertainment/hobby past-time .... and entertainment and responsibility ... mm, usually part company.

Today is the transition day - Said transition is slow, and has been gaining momentum beneath awareness over the last three days. Sensibly the discomfort crosses the threshold, however, to when it becomes more noticeable ... probably even onerously to some ... thru Wednesday about? But, I suspect that end time is also mutable. To re-iterate. This is 'home grown,' ... which is just metaphoric for not transmitting hot mass from somewhere else. The synopsis and evolution through this next mid week won't fluid mechanically allow 'big heat' air layers from slabbing off the western high country ... ( Sonoran release..), such as that which took place last week. There are short wave length ridge nodes anchored over the Great Basin ( ~ ) region, and another situated ~ 65W or so ... In between, there is a null space. It's not really a trough..it's a default weakness in the total subtropical heights bridging those two areas. It shows up on the deep layer tropospheric analysis as a shear axis... and the 500 mb winds bend S near 85W ... as a buttress preventing big heat promoting air layers. But, astride that axis on the east side, ...the longer that total set up persists...we steadily still add therms to an air mass that is also slowly adding continental theta-e ... which feeds back positively into warming things up. Daily abuse of solar insolation into this stagnant synoptic description is above climo ... helping to further warm. That looks to continue now that the slow moving/vestigial baroclinic leaf structures have slid off to the east. Basically... it's a sun storm. I'd go 83 with biting insect whirs near the ear-lobes in rural countryside hiking trails... to 92's while zipping down sky-exposed highways ... to the typical 105's on those home/personal station tech's tied into that faux data source known as Wunderground's advocacy for calibration and accuracy in data dissemination ... Anyway, the nighttimes will be elevating -

In any case ... the gloating's about done it appears DPs 68 regionally by Sunday ... transitioning tomorrow, along with 90 T its home grown heat, which doesn't appear to break turning the page into the mid range

Yeah I see what Steve means ... but it's home grown triple-H ... 91/67 ... 'nough to keep the above normal while simultaneously only committing to tolerable heat motif rollin' onward ..

Yeah...this July ... summer really, is behaving the way last winter did... Dramatic pattern that yielded modest snow. Only in this antithesis ... we have warmest this and that ever, and no heat - it's been like that... We're on this incredible uninspired streak is really what's going on... I think it would be better cinema if it were normal with three 110 heat waves..heh. Or normal, with three 36" snow tsunamis

Which doper's in the lead ?

I've described this in the past ... a time a friend ascended some tourist summit in Colorado... There's a lodge up there around 12 K ...maybe even 14... or just 10. It was a sunny day... until about 10:30 when convective turrets were ballooning skyward just off to the side ... He described a five minute thunderstorm that started as light rain, then, hail then...heavy grapple.. then flipped around between, heavy rain...then, heavy snow, then light rain...then the sun came back out... That was early August when that happened. It was short sleeve than cold as hell...then short sleeves Now...I don't know about the Alps...but I do know that Mountain meteorology is varied and quite non-traditional. I'm not sure we can just assess "a sudden event" that is maybe convective in nature as hail or snow or rain? May have been varied -

The circulation type/medium appears to want to enter a stable un-altering regime for the rest of the way but ...heh... I'm a little skeptical of that. The alternative isn't much to write home about ..no. At this time of the dog-days of the year, we scrape to find morsels of dystopian fun in the quiescent model cinemas -. Anyway, ..as the big western Europe heat attenuates ...the residual marker in the atmosphere actually pinches off in the majority of model family/means therein ... and then ensues a retrograde motion toward the west across the NE Atlantic high latitudes/ blocking. It becomes questionable whether that blocking node will fully displace across the Greenland region of the NAO domain, or just eventually collapse S and absorb into the westerlies near Iceland. Over the years we've oft' discussed NAO's in terms of "east" and/or "west" based. It just means ... when there are positive heights tending and blocking in the NAO region, ...which limb of the NAO domain space is that massed biased? If in the east, duh ... and so on... But that matters? And, it matters also differently depending on season. Firstly ... -NAOs don't mean the same thing in the ides of July like they implicate to mid winter. The wave lengths all over the hemisphere are a melange of nebular spaghetti ... well, not entirely, but more so.. The winter flow paradigm has more coherent long wave identities compared to summer. Because of that scaffold difference, ...we cannot intuitively/spatially assume a -1 SD NAO in January means or implicates the same teleconnection to New England as it would ( if at all...) in July.. I suspect there are thresholds... Like, a -1 SD January NAO may be more effective at forcing our flow type here, because the wave lengths are so much longer - the signal is likely "cleanly" transmitting abroad. Contrasting to summer...with garbled noisy trough fragments and ridge islets ...and shrapnel wave schisms ... the mass balancing purpose of the teleconnections can be satisfied over much smaller regions ...such that in simpler words, -1 just gets lost in the noise. However, get to a -4 SD NAO ...it may be so extreme at that deviation that it simply has to extended to a larger area to satisfy mass -conservation and so ... The summer NAO may be conditionally correlative based upon relative strength. But that's all for primer - Over the next two weeks ... the NAO is forecast to be mightily negative... however, it is also presently east biased... in the -2 maybe -2.5 SD range. We'll have to see how that effects ( if at all..) the latitude of the westerlies over eastern N/A... Other than that, yeah...the PNA is dead as correlation at this time of year... In fact, the CDC and CPC are out of phase entirely over the next 10 days with one rising while the other is falling.. good luck. But the idea that -NAO means heat over eastern N/A is not really an outright assumption - or shouldn't be.. Not with all these juggling facets..

Use copy-down... apply the formula to the cell you have highlighted there. Check the results ...etc... Then, right click, 'copy'. Next, highlight the three cells below the one that is highlighted there ( which are the cells you want the same formula to apply ) .. and then right click --> 'paste'. You should see the cells fill in with the correct formulaic results. Edit ...oh, okay ...steve helped you then - tru

It already did ... wtf

Meanwhile back at home... The GFSX keeps flopping between a low-grade heatwave for locales such as Fitchburg to Bradley in the interior in the middle range. But, it also had that for Thur-Saturday whence last weekend was outlooked ...and we're not there. So, trend for failure is afoot. So take fwiw it does have 90 ... 92's Sun-Tue now ... The other thing...I'm noticing that the present NW Europe heat gets pinched off and lifted in latitude to where it formulates an at first extreme easterly biased -NAO ridge node. This feature then migrates toward Greenland in the extended... establishing a more rudimentary -NAO overall circulation look.. That may be our next heat shot, ... not from the source..But, summer R-wave length arguments do allow for some form of ridge in the spacing over eastern NA/ mid latitudes... It's not something that is either very high in confidence, or presently modeled... But, should the nearer termed behavior of using the heat departures in a planetary wave dispersal sequencing over the NE - N arc of the Atlantic transpire, I would not be surprised if semblances of ridging start emerging more and more for a time over the first two weeks of August.

9 by 9 worked there ... or the equivalent anyway - looks like it was about 89 at 9 and they ended up 99

Yeah ... as July ages toward August, and then August becomes September and on and so one, daylight dwindles. Remarkably perceptive group. But I find it interesting that there is a dichotomy there. Many of the same individuals ( that spend too much time in this social media ) ... wish the summer time away at the same time they seem to wanna commiserate the loss of the sun.

The sun set was cloudy

It'll probably be 89 for highs and 71 for lows every day so we end up with the hottest summer ever having never seen 90 again

I've noticed .. or perhaps suspected is the better term, these like bias tendency bands. And wondered ... perhaps they rotate around the hemisphere... There is a neutral band, a wet one... a dry one, a cold one and a hot one. This is true in every season. When you're in one, you always seem to flop some distance wet ... if rains - it's always a tenth more than modeled... Same with temperatures and on and so on... Ever been in it in winter, and it just seems to snow for any reason. The charts could be a barren wasteland of inactivity... but hell to handbaskets if you don't end up with 4-6" by the end of that week by fractals alone .. some how, some way. It's conjecture - but something I've observed. These are not necessarily very readily discernible merely observing Rosby wave configurations ... or the tenors of the daily charts. There could be correlation to ephemeral teleconnectors, but, I almost suspect that the teleconnectors are a response to it's rippling through. They are like invisible ... and only registered after they've passed through a region like a silent influencer ... I think there is a secondary resonant 'sloshing' ... perhaps a residual tide that ebbs and flows in a wave or two - almost like a harmonic constructive interference that's giving something back just before events slip away into the event-horizon of entropy ... or something... Such that it is only there, if the prominences of the atmosphere are there first, and as they decay... you get these secondary emergent patterns of bias tendency. I'm probably not wording this precisely as clearly as it 'seems' to exist in my mind. But ... it seems Europe was history-hot last month...then it decayed...and low and behold... we at least tried to... Now, we've returned to this model solution tendency where they seem to engineer trough depths from nothing... Meanwhile this canicule thing.. There's no particular reason why every other run we have to see the Euro carve out a big hole N of Lake Superior... now, when we didn't last week, but it allowed/caused us to get hot... Yet it's doing that... and, though it won't exist...( most likely) we still won't get hot either. Our fractals are back to neggie on warmth... Perhaps they'll be posi on warmth one last time before head into fall. You know...I guess that's all I mean. It's when the behavior of fractals are warm heavy vs cool. Wet vs dry. But those emergence tendencies, they don't seem to happen totally randomly? They seem to propagate in bands around the hemisphere.

Don't need to wait until next week to see 90. We could even bootleg a heat wave out of 89.6's, Friday afternoon onward... so yar, that may including some days next week. This look ( to me ) is really a Sirius typology... The 'dog star,' which rises and set with the sun from July through the end of August. Hence the "dog days of summer". That saying is more so applied to a light wind and stagnantly warm humid air mass ... ..basically, boring. With 582 to 588 dm heights supporting diurnal thickness expansion .. but sans much EML expulsion from out west, together with diurnal/convectively induced dents and faux S/W in the models .... doesn't inspire much in the way of bona fide heat, but would support some. So heh..89 to 91's.. The GFS ensemble mean is back to buckin' for an early autumn though. I gotta figure we're going to have to field this from that model family until it really "can" happen...circa early September. But... the NAO is fallen out there so...maybe all this is a prelude to unlikely pattern .. ha

What about Bob -

meanwhile... NW of the Canal is getting a veritable nor'easter - man, 63 with vacillating tree limbs and the under sides of leafs ... under gray linear ceiling streets racing toward the SW. I almost wonder if that activity down there is enhancing this...or this enhanced that. The NAM's wind in the FRH grid wasn't 20Kt sustained this far inland. It really is nor'eastering during the morning over eastern Mass. HI of 110, and two days later ...wind chill of 55 in the last 10 days of July. Just that variance alone is pretty remarkable really ... but July's climate doesn't really include greater swings like it's spring.

I remember when as an adolescent opening one of my first weather books ...and the description of tornadoes always began with, " Tornadoes can happen anywhere or any time" Yup...even on a thin strip of land sticking out over a heat sink ocean

12z GFS operation and it's machine guidance number both indicate a 4-day marginal heat wave Fr- next Mon It'd likely be a 91'er /67 .. 70 type of thing. What we have in that time range is a general elevated height ... est about 6 dm over climo, without a lot of SW/western heat expulsion ... So it's daily manufactured. You can see this in that the 500 mb thicknesses are showing unusually large breathing expansion and deflation between afternoons and 6z overnights... 564 to 572 dm is probably overdone in the GFS... But, seems it's got a tall column with paltry thickness inside. It's also got a strong heat signal out in la-la range with 594 dm heights over the MA

Depends... probably not as much SB action ... but any deep ongoing activity that transgresses NE over the boundary will last in elevated form for some distance ( probably ) so there's lop over from that.

We'll see what happens... We need the warm boundary back N and those temps mid 80s/74 dps surging back to get up N of you toward the Pike...then, that S/W with deeper wind mechanics nears later and ...well... SPC probably outlines much of this - It may come pivot all the way to the Worcester Hills to PSM/ NH but that's ...iffy

Looking at hi res sat and surface obs... I think that warm front is higher up in latitude - almost to HFD-Willimantic CT-PVD