Typhoon Tip

Really ... Not looking for credit per se ... but, I haven't heard about the gradient hypothesis from anyone other than the person who proposed it five years ago ... and has been heavier about it over the last two. Now, it's owned by someone else - Heh... I suppose - fire was quasi implemented as a formal tool in human history at the same time every, too, so ...it's possible more than one person had the exact same to the letter ...inference regarding climate variations and large scale circulation forcing -

ISM is lagging by date ... as of last check... They seem to update that about every 10 days...and it's for the previous week, too...so by the time it's published it's an addition three or so days beyond that week... Aug 11 ... That's what I've seen from them since July. They'll probably release an analysis for the 18th in about two days... oy - As far as the subject crap - nah dude. More like concern... I don't really care if people want/need/do/or don't have biases... I just want to know that what I'm reading isn't that - which admittedly is probably not going to happen in a public social media source. word. Just so we're clear. In order to make that assessment... I may sound I like I care about specific posting behavior ... but that's not it. I'm not sure anything you have said should invalidate IMS inclusion - not that you mean to... I think it is at least worth it to vet why their plots vary... interesting. I'm wondering if it's density related.

I don't know… It strikes me a bit like people just not wanting a record to be broken I'm sorry it does. Otherwise the IMS plots I supplied would've been part of the discussion all along and looks a bias when potentially valid data is elided. Maybe it's not that way OK…

Granted ... I really didn't start paying that close attention to the tropics until I was mid way through me teenage years ... and also, checked out a bit during my early 20s, but of all other years remaining, I don't recall mid August with such a dearth in activity. That's just fantastically pathetic out there... wow. That 20/20 invest over the outer banks? Joke ... .that's merely desperation gasps by an office going mad in corporeal boredom - Sorry ... this isn't Saharan air/dust doing all that suppression. no f'n way man. I realize folks like and need things to make sense, and want neat, tidy explanation and all, but there's more to this suppression than that one factor. For those of you "super responsible intellects" among us that wantonly root on dystopian carnage ... you should be happy about this... Oh you miss out on the immediate gratification of dead beloved pets bobbing in the flotsem of harbor aftermath ... sure.. But, the upshot? Think how unprepared the dumb down complacent civility will be next year!

We keep saying this ...than it's not - where are y'all getting your data... I've been utilizing NOAA's IMS ...and admittedly, it has not updated since the 11th ...but there curve was substantially more loss than 2012 as of the 11th ... it'll be interesting to see if that tend trajectory could have down such a drastic 45 deg angular change so abruptly and gone back across the 2012 slope - which is what would need to have taken place according to their products in order for the current 2019 to be less disastrous - Anyway, may be a moot point - the AO is trying to rise in the GEFs ensemble. I don't get to see the Euro EOFs but... should it rise, that may alleviate the ice loss rates - slow it down ...and in fact, if that's true they may be one in the same already... I want to stress though, that there's nothing gained in the longer run by 2019 failing to surpass 2012 - it means nothing.... The longer termed issue with the polar ice cap remains dire... I'm hoping there isn't some coveted like idea that we are coming out of the arctic crisis? ... just sayn'

Yeah that IMS chart post just updated as of the 11th and looks nothing like that - interesting

Heh ...these kind of statistical comparison for drama and affectation, they don't fall on me with much weight... Means nothing... The antecedent conditions in 1999 may or may not bear resemblance to this year's.. And making that determination is too complex to look at mere SAL or ENSO ... (not that you are...just in general) in quadrature. There's a lot to that integral. The AMOC is totally different... The AO dominant summer plays an indirect roll, too .. how these interact with other forcing domains and emerge different mitgators or vice versa... oy, litany of contributors. To this point in time, it is probably closer to even probability, either way, that both seasons are in a dearth ... in a sense, as in two different people entirely happening to roll the same dice combination. If it can be physically demonstrated that the governing parametric variables in bother years are say... within the 90th plus comparison-percentile, in terms of dominant influence? ( hint, not likely...) than perhaps the comparison has more momentum.

That doesn't look any different than any year I've seen it spanning the last 10 frankly... Very similar... Look at it this way.. the gunk emerging off the New England coast is as potent ... just not as areal in coverage - but you live here... It's not been a very 'dusty' summer... I dunno... I suspect that the actual concentration as a scalar value is not very anomalously higher than normal... probably for the last month or so... Just a hypothesis -

Meh...conjectural... everyone's got an opinion - NASA/NOAA seemed more remarkable back in June ... I haven't seen anything from official channels lately ... Typical, people hear something early on and write bible passages over it like it's gospel-causal. We're still suffering -NAO headlines from the 1990s...

Looks like everyone's referring to different data ... The curve I'm looking at ... 2019 has more ice loss than 2012 to date.... not saying the season ends up that way - or even if that date relative measure is correct ... but

Free fall... The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Yeah... and while not a declaration of particular support ... I mentioned my self I hadn't noticed a lot in the way of SAL this year... I still suggest the real culprit to suppression is the dearth of stronger TW ...The entire length of the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough has been sparsely populated with stronger wave signatures the whole way - so far... That'... and, we haven't had very good upper tropospheric UVM profiles - ...it's actually consistent with the lowering intrusion of the westerly QBO phase... These factors can be compensated - haven't yet

Funny you mentioned him ... I'm familiar with him by name, and because of one key relevancy ( to me .. ). Shortly after having finished writing a science-fiction novel... and it was already contracted and is presently still in pre-press ... I come to find that the fictional science that is so much a part of the thematic framework of the story... might actually be real - and it was his research into ...well, don't wanna give it away... The creepy aspect is... I penned that exact same duplicate concept for the story some ten years prior to Penrose et al's paper, the title of which almost to the exact letter is a turn of phrase in the novel... In a way ...it should offer the novel some 'special' relevance perhaps? We'll see... but upon reading his name there I was like...hey - ...or not.. we'll see. You know... fire was controlled all over the world at almost precisely the same evolutionary time in history - which means, it was not transmitted ( the knowledge ) by migratory information. It was literally coincidentally discovered - a fascinating aspect of archeology .. I think humanity is just like that... we're all privately postulating aspects that one or two people get to take all the credit for - ha

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak. I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past? or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have. I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. coughing and stuggling as they trundle westward down the CV rail service... Going nuts nearing PR.. Anyway, I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born do to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not... They then dive S and end up absorbed/rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan ridge, and then move back west underneath within the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether the pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth. interesting

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be. ... man. You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really? And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle... I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

Douches roll their eyes... That should be the name of that novel. Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley. Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras. Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth. So now are empirically demonstrated. But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from! Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too. One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS. The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally... One has to imagine the scene. You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change. Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement. So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen? Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ... heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt? Okay ... that might happen too. Missoula Floods leap to mind.. You know what it all strikes me as.... I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "synergistically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence? The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware. Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a, our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that. They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish. Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge. In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

thanks

Source?

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.