Typhoon Tip

Bingo! That's ...basically what I hope Hoth encounters for having the audacity of actually helping someone with a good deed -

that's actually interesting .. hm. should be we believe it? thing is, the MOS isn't just the raw adiabats ...tinted by clouds or whatever as we both knows...blah blah. But, at times like these, when that looks that way I wonder what happened in the past ...what similar set up doink BDL from winning against your every day MHT's... wow. Hopefully, it was when Kevin was trophy foisting -

ha ha... you dope. oh man - that's funny... well, with any luck, it'll be the third floor up a non-ventilated stairwell like you see in a '70s gritty ghetto film, and the actual living space is a converted attic with all the associated thermodynamics of the typical urban tripleplex - hopefully ...there's that one piece of furniture that can't get around the corners so you have to stall and wait it out while someone dinks around with with a screw driver taking foot pegs off ... "oh - shit. flat- heads"

Ha! word

For BDL and BOS, ... I'm pretty close to droppin' bills down against the dealer on this, yup - It's gonna be close... I've seen it be like 81 at Logan for four consecutive hours, then at 4:55 ...just before the light umbra tips a glow over the eastern horizon they weasel a 78.4 for a two minute spike. Not sure about Worcester tho - the impetus of the prior post was "urban"? The air port is 1,000 set up on a plateau well removed from that. Not sure that site'll maintain the same thermal bubble as the former.

Yeah I've been picking away at NAM numbers with this myself... It's either onto something, or is somehow bugging out on moisture handling I suspect. Not sure which way to go. Thing is...it's not theoretically impossible that DPs are so anomalously high that they effectively 'rob' thermal energy away from the kinetic side of PV=NRT. When the mass (N) increases, in order to keep the pressure*volume product from violating planetary arguments ...the temperature has to drop ... it's just math. Anyway, if the WV is extraordinary... that could hold keep the temp from gaudy numbers ... I don't know ..haha.. .It's like Will said the other day. Who the f even cares man... 94/78 vs 100/72 ? really - ...like that matters to 99.9999999999999% of anyone 'cept the loons you find in here that alter life trying to pin it down..

Heh...gives me a chuckle seeing thickness modeled to within a tick or two of 580 dm over PF country ... where we brag about hidden cove snow into mid Junes -

Yeah ..agree.. the thing is... we talk about nocturnals being held unsually high ... holy ass gas man! Saturday night is going to be something really freakish... I wonder what it would be like at 3 am in the core of any brick and mortar, steel and glass urban centers. That's important...because as hot as Saturday looks...the launch pad Sunday morning is like a trust fund brat born rounding third telling everyone how hard they worked for their home run in life when it's 97, above MOS .. only 11am on Sunday morning. I could see that happening... sure. 82 for a low in urbania ... mm. Something I've been wondering...if daily elevated miminum records might be broken. We may cap 96/78 Sat afternoon ...fine. But, given the synoptics, where ever that happens, good look whittling off degrees after dark.

Much better! and thanks bro -

I've never seen that before from that particular data source. It's the NAM's FOUS (FRH) grid... BOS LGA 36000697256 -2595 072416 82292317 36000726126 -6093 102009 81302417 42000815251 -0196 072716 80272318 42061857676 -9995 122519 78262316 48000863332 -1096 093010 80262217 48000927059 01095 112708 80262517 54000573930 -0996 092303 81312317 54000626240 00692 102607 81322417 60000574640 -1794 072207 82312519 Those bold-raised fonts are the thickness ... 582 dm ... 581 dm... so on.. Having one is unusual...and rare. I've seen 580+ on one or two intervals, ...several times since the mid 2000's years ( re the other debate; I don't recall ever seeing thicknesses that high when this product was "ETA" ... way back whence, but that could also be the model physics too..). I have never seen two intervals in a row over Logan ... or if I have, so infrequently that I don't recall. This is 5 intervals...back to back. That's incredible. I remember some pig heat bombs modeled back in the day ... late 1990s we had a couple bad ones where the T1 was progged to be 34 C and 26 C at 900 mb ... those did not have these attending very high anomalous H500 thickness plumbs. I'm wondering if this really is a DP thing... Like perhaps the WV is inflating the thicknesses.. It makes some intuitive sense... Take that bottom most row on the left (BOS) ... 582 thickness... ooph... But, the T1 is "only" 31 C .. but the T2 is 25C ...That's an unusually stable look for that interval - owing the the general hot profile... But, I suspect that 31 C is held in check by ...essentially being under water. It seems for 25 and 19 over top, that bottom number should be 34 C

...too small to read; won't load when clicking

Lol.. Impossible Burgers!

"all" ? No.. of course not. - nothing in nature is all though... > 50 % ...? I'd be willing to be the farm. That's all that matters. If the ballast of negative impact is one's fault... it's one's fault the total system is f'ed. We cannot be lawyers and weasil our way out of culpability to this thing and crisis, because winning that debate leads inexorably to a very bad state of reality for the World. ... I've read enough advance theoretical, peer reviewed papers, ones that frankly... fit theoretical meteorology, elevating atmospheric gas constituency that are more proficient at storing thermal energy, causes increased capacity for WV in mass ...in turn.. rain, snow.... elevated lows to name a few. form ... to know that the noted increase in nocturnal lows all over the planet, as well as statistical rainfall anomalies all over the planet... are not happening because of ENSO, AMO...etc... These WV-related elevated quotients are happening regardless of ENSO warm or cool phase... AMO was positive when this GW curve hockey-stick, and now...it's flipping negative and we still hockey stick... weee... So it's true in both cases... Seems there is a knee jerk tendency to refute this GW ... when in evidentiary, there is growing data base of events that are mathematically connectable to the spectrum of consequences being observed... It's been a popularized mantra, then codified by populism narrative... But I digress.. .sorry. Anyway, there's definitely a ' counter-culture' to do so. This was clearly put into motion back in the 1990s. The forefathers of the science ...man, were they ever neolithically incompetent in how to bring the concerns to the light without offending people's way of life. If they had just not doomed everyone then, this row would have been avoided - I think.. . Because of that heredity...we are going to be suffering no-sayers WHILE humanity's bus is careening off the cliff of what probably is a directly related cocktail of cataclysmis that ultimately force population correction - that's the Sci fi dystopian extreme, granted... But, you know... if it does... all of the off-set "plausible" denial statements will be etched onto the headstone of human kind like the names of fallen heros upon the Vietnam Memorial monolith down in D.C..

It probably is ... just not February - what I mean by that is that it's the same mechanic for all intents and purposes... We haven't set this sort of circumstance up in the winter in quite some time ( that I can personally recall...) but... a fresh cold polar high establishes a cryo flow over the water that is near saturation... and that air mass is forced to lift over land and you get these bonus snows... They look like stationary blogs in winter though. Here they're more cellular sorta lookin' on radar. Only here, they summer taxing misty rains.. I remember ...I think it 1993-1994 ..we had that quite a bit in and prior to winter storms. The storm its self may have been a nickl/dimer but we got like 12 to 18 hours of brochuring when the polar high wedged in before the storm.

I'm being partially tongue in cheek ... They may be fine. If you have information privy to the instrumentation that is real and reviewable, by all means. I just recall back in college that all those ob points were rounded - if they have some decimal equivalent improvement in finite measure techniques, awesome! Otherwise, I've seen too many obs vary at random times over the years ... like 60 degrees at one, and 110 degree directions at the other, during easterly gales... when a focused jet should have them all be locked at 90 ... That doesn't inspire confidence when one sees that. Maybe things have improved...

It look(s)(ed) like we did get that secondary acceleration behind the primary cold front.. It was evidenced on satellite - I haven't bothered with the tedium of ASOS wind obs as I don't trust 'em anyway. It's probably too sensy to be detected by any rounding schemes ... and/or fractals that would love to avoid wind cups deliberately to make this look wrong. But it did look like it punched in shortly after dawn, as an under-cast perturbation that rippled in an arc toward the SW... ----------------- NAM's overnight machine interpretations don't get it hot on Friday...well, relatively speaking. It gets it 81 to 87 depending, with a much slower turn around of the regional BL vectors during the day compared to the global models. On the surface *( pun intended...) that doesn't exactly offend the better reasoning ... it's very high resolution may be "seeing" low level resistance better - or not. I've seen it fail in this but, this is a weighty dense air mass invading..It's not just BD... it's actually mostly straight up summer cP air bubbling down, that's mixing in BD/GOM type hybrid. Anyway, the Globals are selling us the idea here that said bubble high completely normalizes and smears out into the evolving longer term pattern, and establishes a deep enough return flow that we tsunamis OV heat all the way to Boston Light sun down tomorrow. I'll give the notion of a late high a nod, either way... but, it's going to be interesting to see if the Euro/GFS are right about 92 to 95 outta this turn around tomorrow. Should the NAM prevail... heh, can't say it's a shocker. The other thing about the NAM is that it's convective sequencing may be also effecting it's solution for heating potential.. I'm noticing that in addition to being somewhat slower to homogenize the surface pressure pattern...it's flaring old MCS garbled gunk again over southern Ontario nearing 18z and races it east... It even seems to start materializing what I suspect is a rain cooled assisted cool front signature in the pressure pattern associated with that... The Global runs don't do this.. But, the NAM may be contaminating the sun's ability to heat things, too. Just sayn'. ---------------- Saturday is also not that hot in the NAM MOS. Now... as your eyes roll around (and rightfully so...) keep in mind that it's DPs of 78 and native tendency NOT to mix vertically outside of convection, may be limiting NAM BL expansion. It does seem a little shirked that 22 C at 850 on a perfect west wind and very low cloud level RH ...would end up less than typical BL depth/adiabat... The GFS, on the contrary, does that too much as a general rule, and therefore, sky rockets barotropic air temperatures at the mere sight of sun-up insolation. What's interesting is that the 'X MOS DPs are still running 77-ish ... so that's confusing.

GW ... period

Yeah...some substantial MOS busts leveled before we're capping here.. Vills taken over ... we convert to severe/flood thing the next several hours.

GFS/GFSX MOS' have come around to hot Friday now... 96/74 at FIT ... Still has the 101/73 on Saturday ... My guess is what Chris and I were discussing the other day needs to be considered. And it has to do with the GFS heredity not yet properly handling BL Meteorology. It's may be overly mixing the column and allowing the temperature side of the Equation to rise to far. My hunch is it caps around 96 but with 77 type insanity... I mean, splitting "airs" there...right. 96/77 is probably about the same as 101/73 ... Basically a good day to leave your dog in the front seat of your rural 1984 Massachusetts chevy pickup truck that has a back gate wired shut - Also, has 96/73 for Sunday

Nice gully flooder out near Springfield..

Instrumentation ... every NWS site is substantially lower than just about every personal station tied into social media platforms... By a considerable margin, too. There's a sensible difference between 90/71 vs 90/77 ... I was outside here at lunch and we had to bail on the patio idea at the office - too unbearable after just 1/2 hr ( funny ...we were complaining about the office being too cool ... wham). Feels like the DP is higher than 71 ... but that of course don't mean diddly

So far... NAM MOS has busted 2 to 3 F most sites around SNE

meh ... GFS is just doing the same thing, oscillating backwards again... a run or two in the future, the other way. Highly confident of that happening about every second run, up or down. You can tell it's going to do that in the near term just watching the behavior of it ridge handling... If it's slightly flatter with the ridge, the mid range is aggressive with troughs ... Then, if the ridge is slightly stronger...troughs are overall less incurring to mid latitudes. It's been clad every time! Oh... flat ridge.. .here comes the YUP. It strikes me as large scale 'sloshing' error - for lack of better description. Where the whole thing is oscillating some 6 dm heights up or lower everywhere. That's a bug in the algorithms - when the whole thing moves en masse like that... up , then down... unilaterally, it's not likely real. More like an emergent property of a complex system - almost like "giga" motions in mechanics.

MD out ... watch possible.. TCU now...

Does look like SPC has rehashed the slight region a little farther N... now up to the VT/NH border... "I think" it was down near the pike early? ... anyway - sky has opened up markedly from the southern tier of NYS east through Massashusetts and temperatures are responding with rapidity. Should be mid to upper 80s in the interior south of Rt 2 by noon and probably if we don't set off convection sooner...headed for 90. This may actually be a modest sun bust/positive