Typhoon Tip

1 The short answer? The same way. ENSO (warm)(cool) phases are a 'climate cyclic' - and climate is inherently defined by ( events/n-events ). Particularly in the summer, when eddy forcing is more dictated by local scaled ( both time and space ) ephemeral anomalies, SS stressing can cause transient index topographies - but, when the autumn's kick the gradients in and the flows become for structurally defined those break down and the longer term residence re-emerges/gets exposed. 2 ..Approaching? most likely ... There? not likely ... Kinda of how to look at it. 3 Veerrry carefully - haha. I like qualification tactics because they are valid? One should mention their caveat emptors when discussing findings/foresight - that's more true to the scientific theme, anyway, because even Einstein said "Theory" within his title of General Relativity - even though at scales above Quantum Mechanics ... the rules that precipitate out of his tensor analysis' are incontrovertibly clad and he could have said, General "God am I smart, my way or the highway" Relativity. 4 Absolutely yes!

This is extremely important frame-work exposure of the crisis... Species migration will/has be a Humanity issue just as is for any other life form that necessarily moves from areas of harm to areas less so .. impelled to do so by their very instilled/instinct to survive. The destablization of the Baltic region and the recent refugee flux event over the last 10 years, was not just geopolitically motivated - as some scholarly papers available to general consumption of the web-browser discuss, and are available if one bothers to go and find. They were experiencing ecological failures on a multi-year scale, already on-going, such that the fateful arrival of the aforementioned duress becomes more like 'straw that broke the camels back.' It is what it is in a vacuum but .. part of the facets of the culture anti-CC narrative is the lack of culpable evidence that it is effecting/affecting - when there are evidence of this and have been for a decade or more in actuality and needs to be presented and spotlighted.

There's unusual eddy forcing all over the place because of the modulating impact of the expanded Hadley Cell into the Ferrell latitudes ... That's a large anomaly that's greater than single-seasonal and more a reflection of the state of the planetary system. This causing anomalies compared to the previous classic systemic model, and [ likely ] obscuring the "real" state of the oceanic indices due to those stresses. Things may look IOD (-)(+) but be ephemeral ...? They are responding to local time-scale disruptions that are part of that larger modulation. They would be faux presentation of states ... or, if they are real and integrating, it may not be readily coherent if they carry the same forcing weight because they are not differentiating the same way as they did in the previous model. A ballooned(ing) Hadley repositions the gradation of heights at mid latitudes. This effects a slew aspects in the on-going, longer term eddy forcing around the Hemispheres. I just think we cannot be as ENSO reliant at relative measures/observations, to known or suspected results, when those Climatologies are based upon a different era when these macro physical states of the environment dictated a different interrelationship among these various fields - or is strongly hypothetically supported as being different via convention academia and a-priori experience as to how this shit works.

Don posted excerpts from a letter to the U.N. general several posts ago... This caught my eye immediately - this particular sentiment, which I've heard repeated in the "cost vs consequence" mantra quite often and it's irritating. "Current climate policies pointlessly, grievously undermine the economic system, putting lives at risk in countries denied access to affordable, continuous electrical power...." It's wrong for multiple reason. One, it is not pointless - the fact that the author of this sentence doesn't see the point, or has difficulty with connecting with the truth and reality of what climate crisis actually means does not mean the point does not exist. It simply means... he/she is either lacking the capacity to see it, or [ perhaps ] is/are too predisposed to other ideologies, so much so that they block the perception of truth and reality in the first place. Two, Tough shit! Related to one, this "concern" is rooted in a mentality that either doesn't understand and/or appreciate the magnitude of what the f climate "apocalypse" means, or is incapable to perceptions that take the "longer view". Clue: There is no economy in a future that cannot support an economy - thus, the author(s) question and concern is rendered void and irrelevant. I mean, this idiot cares about the economics and guess what... economics is based on a human construct. I conceit of value that is just a shared delusion - turn out the lights. It's gone. It's not, gravity or electromagnetism, or chemistry rules of nature that we all are compelled to abide by or we die. Economy, and the ways and means by which humanity stuffs meaning and value into it, is an abuse of the former natural laws - think long and hard about that. Those abuses, leading to the consequences we now face, are consequences precipitating out of bad practices before fully exploring what it would mean to do the things history has done - that will mean the demise of economy as we know it. These people among us ... it just begins suspect they are genetically lacking some make-up in the very wiring of their minds and are incapably connect the dots - ..little frustration here, admittedly. but Jesus - In a whimsy euphemism, we've ignored the gravity of our actions and went about profligate chemistry, and now... we have an electromagnetic problem. When I read this opening statement by the author, they lost all credibility in my mind and I can't abide - it actually makes it difficult to even want to endure reading further.

Well light dawns on marble heads ... https://phys.org/news/2019-09-convince.html In my own proclivities to lament the short-comings of the climate -crisis forefather communication's shimmering gallery of what not to do ( go about attacking the fundamental scaffold of society's make up ), I'm also quotable as mentioning concerns to that/this affect. Those mistakes of yesteryear started this chain-work, where earlier defensive posturing led inexorably to a culture of denialism, and carte-blanche to be creative in the way people go about doing it because there's no moral culpability/sense of consequence for actually submitting one to a delusion and believing it... It's as much a psychological problem ( integrating sociologically) as a geo-physical one now, set into motion decades ago by bad diplomacy and dissemination of an impending crisis. And it's consequentially very bad now, because this is a present day reality where we have to move quicker, than the time it will take to convince the world it is in trouble. The earlier warning tact ...it really created a different sort of climate crisis, one that is just as pernicious and seemingly insurmountable as the environmental one, itself ... and thus, there two wars going on: one against ignorance and enlightenment about the ways and means of profligate Humanity, and the disparate cultural design against that enlightenment - the latter of which is an ingrained cultural climate of distrust and vitriol ( to mention, morality ), one that is multi-generational too. To be fair, not all of which is the climate-frontiersmen fault, either - there seems to be an entirely separate post -Industrial Revolution - ramification that is timed exquisitely badly but I won't get into that. It's not a novel for anyone of us to have mentioned this concern at the various "water cooler depots of the social-media," less than compendium ...no. Most know ...or have suspected for some time, that this is a sociological issue. However, the problem was not going away? And over the years, we are not seeing a very sophisticated ( if at all ) gap/diplomatic control measure being adopted by disseminators - other than misinformation and misuse for a special interest group's gain, but that's another digression.. There needs to be art in research exposure to the masses.

The EPO has wended its way into a negative phase state ... that’ll pretty much be the ballgame for the Alaskan sector as that’s a warm signal up there, and modeled to persist for the next week ...meanwhile an early cold plume and upslope snow event becoming increasingly more likely in the lower latitude Canadian high country /interior PAC NW ... as immediate downstream of there is a typical mass balanced loading pattern - classic teleconnector correlation ... There’s been a recurring theme over the last 15 years for unusually early cold and potential’s for snow in the middle latitudes of North America…very early. I believe it’s part of the pacific heat budget and the swelling of the Hadley cell that’s been noted/papered. This is forcing the AB phase of the Pacific basin ... thus intrusion of NP/EP blocking. This resulting in organized R-wave geometries that are unusually proficient cold deliveries earlier in transition seasons.

Yeah I was reading about that a few months ago. It's another observation in a cornucopia that suggest unanticipated accelerations - to put it nicely. Changes are simply outpacing many model-designs of when/where we would begin noticing specific warming effects amid specific systems - quite possibly because the "Kevin Baconism" of the larger gestalt and sensitive transmitted relationships are just unknown. It is ... disconcerting. I feel - personally - with growing conviction, that there could be "jolt" events. Scale and degree of "cataclysm" to be determined, but short duration adjustments that really didn't have much hope of being well predicted because they are/were brought about by previously unanticipated emerging "synergistic" feed-backs. I read a paper once about the basal flow rates of Antarctic causing the land-based aspect of the western ice sheet to accelerate well beyond climate models, and something similar in Greenland may already be taking place. If these thing happen, then...relative too, even accelerate further - no one can say that can't happen, when acceleration is already empirical and that's pretty much adios muchachos global coastal environments when/if land based ice lets go en masse.

Fortunately for the world ... there is no logical correlation whatsoever - even in a politicized climate debate, which in its self is absurd to begin with .. - where Nazi-ism has any iota of relationship in the mathematical justification vs denial of the greater climate debate/truth... That entire exchange (abv) could not be more patently absurd, and is entirely contrived nonsense. come on man... is anyone in here modestly intelligent -

"... Misplaced practice of granting climate change deniers a visible platform to spout their anti-scientific beliefs was showing signs of yielding to scientific reality ..." It's really, really difficult to do so in many cases, that is, not suppress opinions in a democratic society founded upon the basic principle ( among many others ) of freedom to expression ... Fact of the matter is, despite the ethical virtues, and intentions of the founding forefathers with the 1st Amendment's provisions of free speech ... that ethic was created in an era that was too different to really make the rigidity of it's interpretation as valued in the same way as it was when it was first necessarily formulated ...hundreds of years ago. The reality of our time is one parted company with the ethos/pathos of that long ago era. As an aside, part of the problem with the Constitution, that "bible" of American cultural heritage ... is that it really does not allow the natural process of cultural evolution take place - it stymies that process, a process that is now becoming increasingly more influenced by the entire spectrum of modern science and technologies. These forces have a power well beyond the imagination of those that engineered those principles back whence. This may seem like a bunch of long words,... but I really feel this 'smoldering dystopia' of untenable non-sustainability for Humanity that we're dancing around ... is more than just a climate-based one. And strategies to evoke necessary positive change, should be addressing this bigger sociological pallet of concerns, in how to handle contrived dissension. Yes...there are some opinions that not so much we "think" need to be suppressed, but if allowed to cultivate opinions ( immoral efforts, or ignorant ) would be so detrimental to the very survival of the species ( and countless others...) they cannot possibly be be heard - yet we are hand-cuffed to free-speech. I'm not questioning the virtuosity of that - just the philosophical quandary we've arrive upon as a civility. Hey, that's just as valid - if that's what society wants, to be dead ...by all means, dissension from consensus truths so that people can continue to feel good now - that's name of the game, then. That problem is, no one person should be jury and judge and force the silence of any tongue or pen - so it's a delicate matter. How to preserve the intention of free-speech, in an era where there is no time to educate - interesting dilemma.

Three bombs and 0 chances..?

Mm... not necessarily ? Typically ... cyclones that remain weaker, are shallower systems ( structurally in the troposphere ) and can ... "evade" early steering so to speak. But, there have been plenty of systems that make the trek and dodged weaknesses in the ridging, too. Ideally what we want so see happen as hurricane enthusiasts is not to have 2019's hurricane season -

It's interesting how some years ... maybe 1954 and the like, it's so easy to cinema an event on the EC ... it probably even seemed that way during those seasons. Like, 'normal' or something. But this year? Sprayin' 'em out of the tropics yet you can feel safe and secure in the notion, even complacent, that God would actually fail if he wanted to make that movie -

GFS actually has a kind of "Imperfect Storm" deal going on S of NS out there over 48 hours... Takes Humberto and injects/capture and then clearly baroclinically implodes heights at the same time it has Hummer's residual core trundling around inside of it like a golf ball in a dryer cycle.

Yeeeup .. Looks like we got the next two CV misses lined up on the old assembly line ready to twist on up and model faux mpacts on the EC for another five days worth of lives stolen from local poster hopefuls...

...pretty soon, NHC will get this recommendation and then finally the rest of the world will know -

Interesting... seems via the tenor in here - we've gone from speculation of a week or two earlier nadir to a late one?

This is one of those years where the CV season goose poops 10 pellets down stream at the Americas and none do shit on the EC... Yet, we'll get a hurricane at all next year, and it'll go from Cape Hatteras to ACK and we'll get PRE'ed, and weather the wind of all these assholier-than-thou posters telling us that isn't a bad average so we're the jerks for want -

Sure ... here - geez

No argument ... Firstly, as a primer, the arctic is very sensitive when nearing melt states; input therms mean much more to threshold periods than they do during deeply descended seasonality. This year the arctic domain space has been near, or at that threshold ( as has that also been a predicament becoming more common over the last decade, plausibly longer), where in lock step the Arctic Oscillation teleconnector become a reasonably well correlated/indicator for melt rates. -AO is a warm signal above the 60th parallel; where the N. Hemisphere has yet to begin its seasonal cascade, that becomes problematic ( newly so..) at onset of this new/re-asserting -AO mode.

No... there's nothing about that solution yesterday that looped - do you know what a looped trajectory looks like? ...It looks like this: I'm not trying to be a wise-ass, but the cyclone literally has to perform a trajectory that does some variation of that - Looking at that particular model run, 18z NOGAPs or NAVGEM or whatever's its designation... I don't see that happening so not sure if you understand what we mean by loop

Not impossible ? But I'd still put that as the remoter of possibilities.. I mentioned that myself yesterday or the day before, that it's possible the models are digging the 'capturing' trough to prodigiously... Shallowing that out gives Humberto a tug...instantiating and N then NNE/NE motion only to have it then slow down as said trough skirts away and heights tend to build back in around and moat it off.. . That could mean a south displacement as a drift if/when something like that were to occur, because these cyclones are like water in the sense that they always move with the flow/path of lowest resistance which would be south in such a scenario ...etc. After that... heh, getting it then turn back west and then back N ...thus completing a loop, would require the next trough it the series being well behaved ... and well, long before we got to that sort of reality we have to have all these other things go right first...and it's delicate. It's really pretty remarkable getting that to happen at all ...let alone guidance correctly depicting it - I'm just talking about the loop as a behavior mind you... that's all.

I am .. this blows! It's only made worse reading other's holding out optimism for lost cause - ...oh, no one means it, but it rubs it in.. hahaha J/k... Yeah, I know... either way, time goes so fast for me - anyways - these days that it'll be next July while I'm waitin' on this winter -

It's a seldom wins month, September, for those that engage in this past time solely for the entertainment/dopamine "joy" spike factor. Having to depend almost entirely upon tropics to get those "highs" in this geographic predicament ? ... ancillary hobbies folks.

I would suggest that it is actually the evidences that are the real trigger-points for that modality - not the science alone. I realize you never said or insinuated otherwise in your statement - I'm strictly speaking to the "straw-man" in the room, and my concern that people do not respond to threats they cannot directly perceive through the corporeal senses... Being told this or that, via science, is not enough. It's mere to them ...They need to be burned, and seeing whales wash-up on beaches with barbie doll components blocking their digestive tracks, fair-weather high tides swallowing island nations, and suffering heat waves a degree she of biblical apocalypses, are just ( unfortunately .. .) what are necessary to get this message successfully into minds. And those evidences ..an entire raft of which are not mentioned here, but are televised, pale in severity the future holds at current profligate pace of Humanity. Life as we know it is going to change ... or has to. Certain convenience delivery has one of two options: change; unable to change. Change may come via technologies... biodegradable plastics... sustainable green energy sources... etc..etc... and these technologies have been around for decades, unexplored or shelved, btw. But it's a race... enters the unable to change and ...well, that ends any discussion of any kind, everywhere - time will tell.

There is nothing about the presently modeled circulation medium over our quadrature of the hemisphere that would physically allow that system to affect this region. Nothing... We can wait until Sunday - that is fine... as in this field, much to our chagrin there can be those rare time when the pattern morphs completely as an emergent, non-predictable circumstance, toward a more interesting x-y-z scenario. Hell for that matter, no probability is truly zero in the perceivable Universe. There is no detectable trend to suggest any such morphology is taking place though. In fact, the opposite. In fact, it was espoused that would happen ( more likely...) JB? ...of course he Trumps an impact scenario as plausible - he's a sell-out Meteorological hooker and despite his borderline buffoonery being repeatedly exposed, people keep posting 'JB says' followed by pieces of verbal shit ...