Typhoon Tip

Looks like everyone's referring to different data ... The curve I'm looking at ... 2019 has more ice loss than 2012 to date.... not saying the season ends up that way - or even if that date relative measure is correct ... but

Free fall... The vector of the current NSIDC graph has now fallen below all curves since 1998 like I ship headed for the open sea -

Yeah... and while not a declaration of particular support ... I mentioned my self I hadn't noticed a lot in the way of SAL this year... I still suggest the real culprit to suppression is the dearth of stronger TW ...The entire length of the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough has been sparsely populated with stronger wave signatures the whole way - so far... That'... and, we haven't had very good upper tropospheric UVM profiles - ...it's actually consistent with the lowering intrusion of the westerly QBO phase... These factors can be compensated - haven't yet

There's also a question of instrumentation and/or measurement standards and techniques there in ... I'm sure they were diligently intended back whence - that's not the point... But, we're talking about decimal increases in many cases... and decimals can certainly be accounted for in snow fall - particularly, in snow fall at varying temperatures... For that matter, it should be melted equivalency and then denote precipitation in keeping with best empirical method. Seeing as the precipitation increases have been noted globally ...that does foist a bit of a yellow flag not to be dismissive of the notion - not that anyone is...just be cautious... I've heard that snow increase bandied about but I haven't actually read any peer reviewed/accredited metrical sciences on that subject matter... It certainly more than seems plausibly true just existentially ... but my own experience doesn't stem back to the middle part of last Century either. We toiled and clawed for 6" snow falls throughout my childhood in the 1980s ...which can certainly be noise. We had bone chilling cold of the 1970s ... but really not as much snow as one might think - save for the obvious banner years there... Then the 1990s came along and as the decade aged ... Pez dispensing began... And despite some truly rancid bad snow production seasons, since 2000 ... it's really been staggering how we've actually grown sort of Stockholm Syndrome accustomed to twice that much... or bust. We get 12" snow out of instability/WAA burst ahead of CCB's that failed to develop/too late because lows are moving to dam fast now more than anything else... Although... 2015 was just an outlier for more reasons than one... we just end up so anomalously deep on the polarward side of the jet storms behaved like a planetary storm event. Anyway I agree that it's tough question... might come down to, 'sounds like duck; looks like duck; chances are ... it's a duck' The all over the world thing strikes me -

Funny you mentioned him ... I'm familiar with him by name, and because of one key relevancy ( to me .. ). Shortly after having finished writing a science-fiction novel... and it was already contracted and is presently still in pre-press ... I come to find that the fictional science that is so much a part of the thematic framework of the story... might actually be real - and it was his research into ...well, don't wanna give it away... The creepy aspect is... I penned that exact same duplicate concept for the story some ten years prior to Penrose et al's paper, the title of which almost to the exact letter is a turn of phrase in the novel... In a way ...it should offer the novel some 'special' relevance perhaps? We'll see... but upon reading his name there I was like...hey - ...or not.. we'll see. You know... fire was controlled all over the world at almost precisely the same evolutionary time in history - which means, it was not transmitted ( the knowledge ) by migratory information. It was literally coincidentally discovered - a fascinating aspect of archeology .. I think humanity is just like that... we're all privately postulating aspects that one or two people get to take all the credit for - ha

Yeah I'm sure you are in part also noticing that though struggled, what development there has been has been home grown - so to speak. I'm not so sure about the SAL... Is there a source that really calculates that SAL parameter ...as an integral/mitigation ...then compares it to years past? or are we just assuming so ...? It's not a knock.. I mean, in the absence of such a source, we work with what we have. I don't know - I do know that the SAL I've seen has not "looked" very severely pervasive or all that inhibitory. I have seen seasons with worse, ...and frequency out there still abounds ...albeit.. coughing and stuggling as they trundle westward down the CV rail service... Going nuts nearing PR.. Anyway, I think therein is also a problem... I recall when in Met school years ago... TW frequency and vitality were both factorable in TC assessments and theh... there also seems to be a dearth in both frequency and wave robustness ... TW are born do to perturbations over the Alps ( ...according to those academic years...) believe it or not... They then dive S and end up absorbed/rotate around the ambient sub-tropical Saharan ridge, and then move back west underneath within the sub-Saharan monsoonal trough... This leads me to ponder whether the pattern over Europe/Eurasia ( believe it or not...) is indirectly related to why there is that apparent dearth. interesting

Do you have any literature ... preferably links to accredited source work of veracious/reputable form ( to put it nicely...), those that might elucidate/expand more about the bold ( abv) ? I've heard of this longer scaled "hidden" curve elsewhere ... but that, including the [apparent] 11, 22 and 300 year resonant solar min and max temporal/causal hypothesis for climate modulation ...all of it, it's harder to just "google" than one would think it should be. ... man. You know how that goes... heh... , go anywhere close to a search-engine that is accessible to the hoi polloi...and you get this tomb of links to doom's day prophets in a trailer park with a satellite dish and every penny ever possessed put into to a lap-top networked with a fully operational Web-server/os... Oh, they've poached various pieces of out-of-context this and that to cobble together support for the end of the world... replete with illustrations of solar storms so powerful ... flesh incinerates off skeletons right before they crumble to piles of bone where the marrow inside isn't even aware the governing body is dead... Ugh... there shit out there about neutron stars careening through the solar-system ... really? And of course, asteroids boring tunnels clear through the lithosphere and several hundred miles of upper mantle... I mean, yeah - the probability isn't 0... I guess...

Douches roll their eyes... That should be the name of that novel. Or the turn of phrase etched into the headstone of Humanity as it rises over the smoldering aftermath like an ignored passage out of Percy Shelley. Being dramatically licensed there ...sure... but, little do common enthusiast-spheres know ... there has been an uptick in seismology at stations in the interior of the ice cap in recent decades. Cryoseisms are not uncommon, even in stable eras. Increases is /were always expected .. due to warm intrusion into the interior of the ice cap... and on and so forth. So now are empirically demonstrated. But, where does the math and science of sudden climate-change -enforced ice retreat say that will take place in a kindly, mass-distributed friendly morphology - where's that assumption coming from! Some of these in the increasing frequency era, have been startlingly intense, too. One such even neared 4 ( I think it was..) on the RS. The region of the ice cap where these stations reporting are situated ... were not merely experiencing interstitial integrity perturbations... They up and slid many feet laterally... One has to imagine the scene. You are surrounding by two distinguishing environmental features ... with virtually no variance other than those two: glare ice and blue-gray-whale skies ... When you then slide, en masse, twenty ... thirty feet, you don't see that change. Why? There are no 'passing features ' to differentiate that movement. So at first, what were mistaken as mere ice tremors ... it would be like GPS tapped scientists on the shoulder "... umm.. you're not where you're supposed to be." So, catastrophic ice slide events... To say this can't happen? Troglodyte impulsive absurdity, that's what that is... Gravity is a constant... Ice integrity/honey-combing on a mega scale, working together with that ... heh, it's complicated at best trying to assess how a system reacts to an undecillium metric tonnes of destabilized mass over land that's just itching to rebound. But the whole gentle mass-phase exchange from ice to liquid ( trace to evaporation ) model, ... spanning enough time for Bambi governmental naivete to respond and adapt? Okay ... that might happen too. Missoula Floods leap to mind.. You know what it all strikes me as.... I remember this conversation with a doctorate of Meteorology in college... back when the dinosaurs roamed. The contents of which may prove as much prophetic as it they were merely conjecture at the time. Most of Humanity's advancements that "synergistically" fed-back favorably into our rise out of the primordial setting ...that all happened, despite all protestations and hand waving... during relative climate quiescence? The latter probably more allowing the former to take place than we are collectively ever considering ...much less aware. Our species particular two pillars, which allowed us to then avail of that favorable environment, was/is a, our cooperation and working together ( strength in numbers ...) and b ... perhaps most importantly of all, we have a unique adaptability about us... Most other mammals of this world, within reasonable comparative per capita biomass ... , can't do that. They don't adapt as quickly - when their ecology breaks down at a faster rate than evolutionary process can adjust... they tend to extinguish. Whether we are aware of the following or not... we are actually testing our own human design and advantage - unwittingly as such... Because we may just succeed at destabilizing the ecology so far, one that we arrogantly forget we actually still depend upon, to the point where it will take something almost super natural to overcome and adapt. Maybe that's the ultimate evolutionary challenge. In the meantime, good luck with thinking that a catastrophic Greenland icecap failure ... whether in a single event, or a cocktail of cleave and rumblers spanning 20 or 30 years ( still virtually instantaneous compared to geologic time scales... ) can't happen.

... yeah...it's definitely interesting...

Well... in any case... I'm sticking with the developing plausibility that we are lacking specific atmospheric responses to underlying SST anomalies ...because the traditional correlations are breaking down due ( most probably ...) to climate change. But all that is actually less than relevant for this year... this year's prognostics of the ENSO appears to fall within the < +1 or > -1 neutrality anyway ... effectively making the question of whether there is a response or not, more likely moot. The AO may be more negative ... this is suggested by the solar nadir resonance stuff... which won't get into ... But, that means that we deal with huge gradients. Fast fast fast flow...at times more quelled to moderate more normal... All that really means is that storms are more sheared and move faster... But in a sort of arithmetic sense... that can also intuit making up for winter storm impacts in the aggregate. More nickle-dime events ... but you know... "nickle" and "dime" are relative distinctions in them selves, because one thing we are not even considering in these seasonal debates and prognostics is the DEFINITE upward empirically proven increase in precipitation quota that's happened in the last 25 years... And that ain't measurement techniques so don't even try that... a 4" mechanical deal in 1990 produces 6" now...just accept that... because the air is - yes according to climate prediction with the change - holding more water vapor. Oh god... ad nauseam..it gets impossible to do this... to do it right,.. you have to include what everyone chastises like an irreverent scorning mob outside of the Ark -

Mm ...I wanna believe in this ... I happened to think you are a talented dude in the "art" of speculative Meteorological sciences ... However, much of my own sentiments ( not saying I'm right, per se...I'm just trying to add some credence here a little) is echoed elsewhere by leading climatologists circuited into the Global sort of Zeitgeist if you will... Take this from Scripps.. "... Most long-range forecast models predicted a potentially drought-ending deluge in California from the climate pattern known as El Niño in winter 2015-16, but the actual precipitation was far less than expected. A National Science Foundation-supported study led by climate scientists at Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego offers an explanation why. “Comparing this El Niño to previous strong El Niños, we found big differences in the atmospheric response across the globe, including California,” said Nick Siler, lead author of the study that was published in the Journal of Climate, and a postdoctoral scholar in the research group of co-author Shang-Ping Xie at Scripps. “We found that these differences weren’t all random, but rather were caused by tropical sea-surface temperature anomalies unrelated to El Niño.” " This is what bothers me ... That factor, bold right there... I don't believe is a factor that has gone away? That ... eeee kinda sorta tries to suggest ...we may be crossing a threshold into a new norm. Time will tell.. But this above is precisely what the conclusion I've been coming to ... we lack gradient because the warmer than normal preconditioning, and therefore... didn't seen the responses.. It's only relevant now because ... heh, I don't see how the ENSO going into this year is really going be readily seen as forcing much when we had trouble getting much more than pallid responses from a much more obvious scenario like that. interesting ..but keep in mind; we are talking probabilities? - something(s) can certainly change such that a comparatively weaker signal shows up more... sure... but, even if so, I think the longer termed issue of needing to question the standard correlations needs to be considered.

that's not a bad way to look at it actually ... but at all scales and dimension in the thing. We see +2 ENSO... budda boom budda bing WRONG We seem to see shapes and knee-jerk as a species... but the scalar values tell a different story and hide demons - haha. Looks can be deceiving.. You know, it's still not abundantly clear to me how and how much the SST anomalies are being weighted... If it is more so against the 100 year? ...200 ....500 via reanalysis techniques.. 30-year slide? Even if 30 year, which in practice is more contemporaneously relevant ... the climate appears to be on such a hockey-stick acceleration that even that is dubiously comparative. I mean ...+1 relative to 20 years ago may totally f-up that assumption... we don't know. And AMS is cagey about disseminating paper abstracts - ...or, no one cares and the world's gone mad! which it has anyway ...but I digress...

Just imho but I'm not sure we can really disconnect the state of the hemispheric gradient distribution, from "how" ENSO can trigger/forcing ... You can't. Gradient is the trigger.. without it... no response. Scott is correct ... a warm overall basin elevates the thresholds, beyond which forcing kicks in... because the gradient is too weak... and as such, the mid latitudes/westerlies are not as sensitive to modest ENSO deviations..

Well...be that as it may, the graphical presentation being perhaps a week behind other sources... The dailies depict illustrations that clearly still put 2019 ahead of 2012 as of August 8 from the same source as that graph. one, it will be interesting to see the graph update... heh.. But two, I've annotated and it's pretty clearly obvious ...if said graph is based upon anything resembling these [crude] cartoons... it's just as likely to update still below the 2012 curve..

Do y'all have some access to extra-double, top -secret data that is different than this ...? Cuz just from where I'm sitting... 2012 is getting it's ass handed to it - I dunno.. you tell me. Yeah some 'gap' closure there but t-heh... that integral ain't supporting any kind of angst that we'll have trouble ousting 2012 in this 'race'

I for one believe that in the absence of GW ... perpetually ballooning the mid and lower latitudes, we'd be getting harsh winters for the next couple-a decades... I think that ENSO is being muted ...but not entirely - just mitigated by some to-be-determined physically amount ... If it gets sufficiently hot to really differentiate again, more akin to 100+ years ago... fine - go nuts! Otherwise, it's pallid effect on the global circulation may become more commonplace. But we have to think the Earth's atmosphere in the "Hadley cells" ... The tropical/equatorial SST regions that are associated with ENSO and so forth...those are differentiating against the subtropical termination region that flows into the westerlies in the mid latitude winters(s) ( N/S hemi.)... Those then R-wave distribute and there's your forcing mechanics on a larger scale.. But, if that interaction region is being less differentiated ( i.e., gradient reduced) said forcing takes a back-er seat... However, there is still the AO ( and AAO) cold source/domain regions to consider ... Albeit warming, they still deeply differentiate against the whole region S of ~ the 40th parallel(s) ...and that is why the westerlies' cores are screaming... I really think we should get used to this above sort of layout the majority of times until ... further notice/decades... It won't be that way at all times...no, but favored to be... Where we have faster geopotential balanced wind fields and stress imposed from larger to smaller scale wave mechanics... I would strongly suggest tailoring seasonal outlooks around these ideas ...certainly enter them into consideration.

Nope... not likely... The physics is not over stated ... unless you mean something else... if so forget this. Otherwise - Gradient drives the whole thing... period. You have potassium and sodium in your cells ...that provides an electrical potential... that is a gradient. You have gravity that increases from one point to the other ...which is also describe by the sloped curvature tensor of space .. that is a gradient. You have pressure variance in the atmosphere ... created by warm and cool differences from one point/air mass region to the next... that is a gradient. Nature is gradients... The Cosmos is gradients.... The fact that you can read this ...is accessing the electrical potential gradient. IF A travels to B.... ( i.e., gradient) and you have A and A.... A is not traveling to A.... That is what is meant by warm ocean under warm atmosphere... Warm ENSO is based upon 300 years of climatological norms... But the norms are changing... so the "warm" characteristic of the ENSO is ...not as warm, but cannot really be ascertained very readily because it's an acceleration - And so the bevy of known correlations logically must change because of the break-down of those governing environmental relationships. that's what we're talking about... Again, as I stated... if we can use physics to demonstrate gradient exists ... we can bet with higher confidence then/there is when/where we will see a responses in the system, because those responses are in fact precipitated out of the movement from A to B in this context/example.

You know ... not to make light of this ...but it's funny how we are proverbially bargaining with cumulus cloud shadows to prevent ice loss ... heh. But yeah, it's actually true - when we are teetering at the edge of the 2012 comparison...that closing margin does get sensitive to intra-weekly perturbations passing through the the domain. Fascinating actually -

I completely agree with this bold section... I started ranting about this very same 'ENSO muting effect of AN sea and air' ( ... related to GW or not...) years ago actually. To paraphrase/re-iterate .. the recent record breaking El Nino ( 4 years back at this point ...) precipitated comparatively weak Global impacts. Known correlations were startlingly pallid in some cases, ... moderate impact at most in others. There were papers written and submitted that described this - though I can't dig them up from here at the moment. This will never sink in apparently ... P.H.D.'s blankly look back and blink twice when you tell them this. GRADIENT without it... it's all meaningless. We can't just say SST are above normal in some scalar sense of it, and assume shit. Means nothing when there's no SINK for the heat source... If everything is warm... there is no flow of thermal energy mechanics ... nothing is responding ... there's no momentum to force diddly squat - so seasonal forecasts for this or that based upon X ENSO ? useless... unless that relative effectiveness can be calculated - Works the same way in the other direction too of course. If every thing is cold... etc... Although, when everything is cold, it apparently takes less differentiation in warmth to get the gears turning... but the underlying physical requirement of gradient is still incontrovertibly necessary in either circumstance. I mean god bless everyone's efforts... but despite how many statistical correlations one uses that are linearly based upon [ X-warm happened in 1955 so Y-cold response ] type circuitry...? I'm just saying the above a different way but that's unfortunately too crude and coarse of an approach ... Won't work... Because the ENSO's correlations of many decades ago... are supplanted by the changing climate - new correlations that are relative to warming world? Where are they? Others on here have mentioned that "they" use some sort of sliding comparative scale ..but I don't see any evidence of that reading papers and NCEP extracts ... You know... it kind of backs us into another assumption I've been toying with... This is one of those rare circumstances where the climate might actually be used to modulate determinism ...Intuitively I should say, ...it's too immensely complex to be discrete. If the whole atmosphere is warmer, +1 SSTs don't mean the same thing as +1 SST happening when the whole atmosphere is cooler, like the middle of last century ...or 300 years ago ...or whenever whence one looks back in time. This isn't complicated... yet from NCEP to the enthusiasts of the anonymous Earth sciences -related social mediasphere... everyone seems to auto-pull their strings based upon whether the ENSO is warm or cool, period. And that's almost meaningless. gradient gradient gradient. Here's a prediction for winter: The increasing propensity for the -AO phase state will increase the polar --> equitorial exertion ... while the equator ( just like last year ...the year before...and has been evidences as steadily increasing since the early 2000s) will pushes back ... usually between 40 N and the rough latitudes of the arctic circle. Gradient saturation (different gradient than ocean-atmospheric ) takes place at those regions... not from ENSO, which is absorbed and castrated by the fact that it's back-of-balls all over S of 40 N now. We'll have a somewhat amplified +PNAP pattern in the means, but one that is conveyed by higher than normal/at times geopotential wind saturation. ... Like, 110 kts at 500 mb in the ambiance with no S/W within thousands of KM.. That kind of velocity poison. This will mean that S/W have to be particularly potent to force cyclogenesis... so the ones that have the ability to do so will by virtue of the speed over all be moving fast as mean storm behavior ( I just know we're going to get a slow moving cut-off monster ... even though this is clad). Anyway, they don't stick around,...so their impacts are relatively limited. There may be cold incursions due to said -AO influence... but I suspect they roll-out quickly too whenever there is minimal excuse of continental chinook/Pac swathing. Everything else comes down to intra-weekly peregrinations. I expect a steady diet of -EPOs... But, the over arching ( sort of ) concern for big winter enthusiasts is the same as last year... Fast global circulation speeds means that there is an intrinsic negative wave interference that is exerting from large to smaller scales. When the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical budget suffers ... because most S/W velocity maxes are in the 70 to 110 kt range... well, if the winds are already humming in that range prior to the arrive of the wave ... the wave gets absorbed... Basic wave -mechanical argument. Worked out beautifully as a predictor last year... I remember specifically warning people last autumn that this speed shearing thing is a problem ...

thanks

Source?

speaking of shots.... jesus -

Deniers deny because they can. That simple. If a person is standing on a train track and there is a one-eyed headlight monster roaring and rumbling metallic horn blowin' warnings at them ...they'll be less apt to deny how standing on said tracks would be detriment to their well-being... The problem with Human response to this crisis ...particularly as it relates to the slowness and/or stopping the denying "idiocracy" ... we simply cannot hear, see, touch, smell, or feel AGW or GW or whatever comfortable or uncomfortable euphemism there is that labels what's going on with the planet. When that happens, the denying will stop. But for the interim... it's not in a guy's living room... It's not stopping them from driving to work. Taking their kids to Soccer. Going on that family vacation... sitting around and opening presents on Christmas morning ( if that's your bag...). All there is are dire warnings that attack the ability to engage in all that... A human being... which billions of create this thing we call Humanity ... never react to warnings. They only agree to them in principle. What resonates is pain - it has to register as an inconvenience to the corporeal senses... That's perhaps an evolutionary catch-22 ( as a digression...) but, we have evolved now the ability and ingenuity to improve survival chances ...beyond ecological balance.... Which Terra-forms this world whether we are intending to or not... and...more likely toward a realm that is no longer going to sustain those same advancements. That's the C-2-2 We are capable of these advances... but the capacity to predict and anticipate consequence for action has not kept pace with the powers of ingenuity. In the mean time, it's a nice summer day out there ...and that's the validation for the warnings - good luck.

Firstly, I'm not sure the social-media community in this particular web destination really IS of the 'wanting/wishing' ilk ... I'll just expand on that a little more... but it was really a 'just in caser' Imho, should 2019 somehow by excruciating number crunching ( less than obviously ) fall short of 2012 ... was it really worth all the effort and writing...and annotated graphs and monitoring and ..well, basically obsession? We are not "making sure that happens" - by plying that effort. I can understand statistical accuracy but I wonder if the real motivation for doing so lurks behind that excuse, because the bigger, longer term consequence of what the world faces is so dire right now that to do so ...could not be any more futile. If it falls short, nothing's different. Why then? The longer vision, we're still f*!&ed folks. As far as that article... There's a lot of complexity that is not really discussed in that... In a general scope and concept it's not "un-clad" exactly ...But, there are ... synergistic effects that are 'emergent properties' and aren't really predictable... More over, those can have secondary ...tertiary spontaneities too... The blocking idea can come from other sources: First, ... extinguishing planetary wave/dispersion into higher altitudes. Think of it as where warm advection plumes go to die. The vagaries of R-wave undulations over time, can create episodes where/when warm fluxes cause/contribute to tropospheric blocking .. These are ephemeral in nature... If they persist ( causally ) it's the underpinning pattern that's supporting it.. The NAO domain is a good teleconnector to exemplify this.. It can fluctuate at intraweekly time scales because of this sort of transient phenomenon... And is why seasonal predictions for that teleconnector - heh... good luck. Second ... blocking anywhere from that can happen in any era. Third, ... it is not abundantly clear that GW would in fact promote more of that to happen, because ... it's all still based upon gradients. Without gradients...no air movement exists at all. From that very fundamental requirement of physics, working together with gravity over a curved surface... without the first initial requirement of changing PV=NRT from one point to another...not of this, in fact, this conversation, can happen.... Why is that important? Beyond the obvious ... the arctic also is said to be differentiating warmer/faster than everywhere else... Is that true in the middle troposphere? If so... than the gradient is not necessary increasing because of GW... but, I suspect it is anyway... The arctic is just trying to catch up ...and in the interim ...we are witnessing extraordinary jet speed anomalies and have been now over the recent decades. Flights between NY and London...also across the expanse of the Pacific have registered historically fast ground-based velocity speeds in that time. This is happening because the warmer equator/sub-tropical latitudes are storing more water vapor ( concomitant with the GW ...) and fiddling with the math ... that is keeping heights slightly elevated; pressing ( as it were) against seasonal nadirs in the winter. Even if they are warming...they are not warming fast enough to compensate for the ambient steepening of that gradient that exists between ~ 35N and the 60 N girdle around the hemisphere. This creates the hurried velocity saturation being observed... Lastly ... folks are forgetting that we are still moving through the 11, 22 and 300 year temporal super-position of the Max(min) solar. Those times have been correlated strongly with -AO tendencies... That makes it incredible difficult to untangle 'how much' of blocking is a result of warming arctic ( as it relates to GW ) - vs how much was destined to take place as this solar expectation has arrived and we transpire through... I suspect like everything...there's shared forcing there... ** The gulf stream stuff and the AMOC - that's a whole 'nother ball of wax. The warming in the previous ... probably going back to the early 1980s is when it really started... has been adding fresh water to the surface of the Atlantic... That's been accelerating particularly in the latter half of that multi-decadal time span. At some critical threshold the specific gravity has changed too much...and the buoyancy gained in the aqueous saline waters (at a given temperature).. slows and/or can stops the sinking water process... No sink = no drawing surface water N = break down of the Gulf Stream. This was theorized back then, too... We are ( more likely so ) now seeing this being measured in the environment... Altering the transport of warm surface waters to higher latitudes certainly would effect circulation tendencies through the various meteorological circuitry over time...and time being a variable in climate - there we go... It's a mind boggling array of countermanding forces and whatever is left after canceling out ...dictates the systemic character.