Typhoon Tip

Seriously though .. the timing of Dorian's 'would-be' trough interaction with the westerlies' amplitude scheduled into the Lakes technically begins ~ 4 days from this 12z cycle. Considering the source, the operational GFS, that's only moderately confidence instilling - I'd say if the Euro starts sniffing out a closer pass that is coherently due to having a stronger trough incursion into the western OV longitudes on it's rendition of D4/5, otherwise ... it's just the GFS being the GFS. The problem is... in baser concept that trough is too flat and longitudinally oriented...such that when Dorian gets anywhere closer to ... roughly the VA Capes longitudes it should already be turning NE/ENE on a London trajectory that would put a Boeing Air Bus in envy - These models that are continuing to lift Dorian "tantalizingly" closer to eastern New England and NS appear to be doing so too much relative to that "flat" character of the open wave tough structure. But, that could be rendered moot either way if said trough gets spatially more amplified ( i.e., N-S meridian flow ), which unfortunately cannot be ruled out absolutely at this time range - but the Euro is getting ready to cross into it's wheel-house ...hence the sniffing -

HA HA HA toldya

My guess is it maxes at 205 ...central pressure of 882 mb.... Then, turns N and bottle rockets to Montreal, Quebec with such rapidity as to make it the first TC ever to succeed the 40th parallel as a Category 5 hurricane - ...Upon reanalysis, it becomes incontrovertibly necessary to redesignate, "HURRICANE JAMES" ...

Mm.. not really. Probably the biggest problem is allowing the mainstream civilian have access to up to the moment data .. that includes you and I unfortunately There are all kinds of false -flags in these reading technologies, particularly near the boundary between categories... We don't notice them so much when it's in the middle of a category, because we have "wind width" to fiddle with, such that noisy fluctuations are not even being noticed. But when a system being measured only has 5 mph of wind potential from being redefined up or down, there is going to be noise in the data that flops over the boundary - piggy-backed on these measuring trips, there are evolved corroborative methodology, and if those fail than there's no move to re-designate.

Lol - why exactly? ..I mean, other than it seems tauntingly deliberate as to shirk on one's ability to jolt dystopian "joy" circuitry with the sought after dopamine - It's okay not to buy that solution ... but I'm not sure the former "oddity" of modeled track actually should logically precipitate the latter conclusion. Fact of that matter is... if one were to take any 'missing' parabolically recurving trajectory and redraw it, it would look similar... Just because this one happens to be doing so 20 or 30 miles off shore the whole way is just purely of function of where that is happening.. But they all turn and high-tale it to the graveyard eventually -

What ...why? Without having the empirical evidence for doing so ? This isn't just cinema for spectators of weather and mayhem - haha... jesus guys. It wasn't a category five until it was a category five, and not sooner - I mean ...there may be a reality some day, or at some point in the past, where conspiracy forces were in play and one could not depend on these official offices of the state as having the best interests of the locals in mind ( ...so to speak...). Unless it can be suggested otherwise with any particularly damning evidence .... it seems unlikely that now is one of those Clansian times

Heh. That's not demonstrative really.

This east shift isn't really new. Looking back over previous cycles the models really began that trend a while ago. That said I would certainly hope no one's thinking they're out of the woods on this thing down there.

Good

You may just be in hyperbole there but we are definitely close to any rank inside of top 10

That's actually been a concurrent deal on that ~ time range going back many runs actually... yeah, it's interesting- something more akin to mid October perhaps. I'm fairly certain snow in that part of eastern Ontario is a bit of a seasonal anomaly for early September - even at that latitude ... Let's not derail the thread - take it over to the discussion

HMON may not have been right about the timing of RI but... holy shit - this is one of the most rapid improvements in sate presentation over the course of mere hours I think I can recall - we'll see if it translates to pressure and wind.

HMON has a 3-hour intensification rate of 10 mb by 20+ knots of wind... dropping from just under 970 mb to the upper 950s with wind from 99 knots to 121. And it doesn't stop there. Another three hours and it's down to 950 mb by 130 knots! That's ah ... heh. The only problem is ... it has it doing that now - which it isn't. Interesting... I mean it may be intensifying, it's the rate though.

What do we know about that HMON model ? It's clearly some form or another of a meso model, but I don't have much experience with using it as a prediction tool. The 12z run took a strong Cat 4 across the northern borrows of Miami - pretty much exactly in a fashion I feared might happen yesterday when it appeared then a sharper west turn and farther south trajectory could unfold - reasoning contained... It might be notable that a lot of guidance has been edging left, too. Oper. Euro and so forth.

Sandy's modeled trajectory was scheduled to do something similar to that EPS cluster and we all know that it wound up taking the southern route.. just sayn' No analog per se, but sometimes it's hard to imagine thing and maybe that would help -

Expansion in size is a slam dunk... In fact, I was just noticing the extraordinarily massive spacial layout in west Atlantic, N and NE of Dorian, that as modeled is setting up a truly massive low level easterly anomaly. Given what is happening along with deep layer ridge pulsation during Dorian quasi hook back west ( SW of NS ) that combination of those two factors really just creates a particularly massive region conducive to cyclogenesis spread out over the entire region off the eastern Seaboard... Sandy did something similar but this is not to be consider an analog. Expanding in size and intensify. I could see this having a tendency to generate an outer eye-wall given to this totality of events, but that's just because if the circulation grows immense that tends to happen. EWR's are not well understood... The idea of involving more of S. Florida in surge is predicated on the assumption that Dorian does indeed "synergistically" feedback with strong systems in light steering environment. Since Dorian appears slated to both destinies... I just thought it prudent to mention - but it's not actually modeled to do so. As is, a trajectory as planned put S. Florida/Miami most likely in a N freshening breeze that starts to go storm force in a NW or off-shore component, which of course is a different impact scenario altogether.

Concerned about Miami ... Here's the deal - Dorian is likely to exceed expectations for intensity guidance. I've just seen this kind of beat before...where the models don't even initialize a system beyond depression, when it reality it's nearing hurrican strength ...yet they still collectively suggest near rapid intensification is plausible despite the weak bias out of the gate ( 12z suite). It's moving up into a region that is going to be nothing but improving for TC structure/genesis. It seems the models are tapping into this latter circumstance proficiently enough, but are not correctly accessing the inertia Dorian already had established. That is troublesome... But mostly, it is the excessive thermal cline integration of ocean heat content it is moving toward, combine with superior shear - lack there off - that should have folks' attention. The reason this sticks Miami out like a sore thumb - despite the present concensus N of that latitude, is because strong/strengthening hurricanes gaining size, can synergistically enhance resistance to polarward motion because they "create their own environment." Basically what is taking place when that happens is ... the outflow ring of the cyclone begins to elevate surface pressure...as well as breaks down steering fields on the polarward size of the cyclone, and the tracks can sometimes bend back west when that happens. It may not be statistically entirely obvious that is what is happening, either, because of the surrounding synoptics are strong enough those forcing will damp the effect out - it's more like an effectiveness when other factors are relatively negligible, the cane will "moat" its self off/tend to do so.. I see Dorian moving into an environment of superior development, that is breaking down synoptically ...which might render it to a west bump out there in time. Something to think about. It's a big maybe and not a prediction... but you do have a bomb potentially hear, and one moving into temporarily induced deeper layer COL look to the troposphere, and I could see that do weird things.

Man... I'll tell yeah... sea-level rise is already becoming a management problem in Miami at times of 'fair-weather' high tides. that would be bad

looks like an eye on last couple of rad scans...

What's peculiar to me is that the entire suite of various Global numerical models did not initialize Dorian very well on the 12z guidance cycle ... yet, they all take it through robust strengthening over a 24 to 36 hour period beginning pretty much now through tomorrow night. I dunno if there's much merit to the following thinking but that "seems" sort of dire to me - as in ...this means that an even deeper/structurally evolved entity entering that same favorable domain space ... might attain a status that exceeds the models by the time we get to that D4/5 window and this is knocking on the door ...

Fwiw -the GEF -based NAM numbers have been elevating and in fact, are positive in the initialization as of last night. They are forecasting a brief dip back to neutral or perhaps modestly negative SD, before an even more robustly positive modality out toward week two. This observation of reversing pressure patterns is probably related to that - I haven't see then EPS rendition, but prognostics going back some ten days began to suggest that the annular mode may flip back then. I suggested that it might alleviate the melt rate ... slowing it down some. Heh, it may just rescue 2019 from tapping 2012 on the shoulder.

Wow, "... The NHC foreast is more aggressive than the previous one, and brings Dorian to category 3 intensity by the end of the period. This forecast very closely follows the intensity consensus, the HCCA model, and the SHIPS guidance...." Although, I have noticed a tendency by NHC to 'enhance wording' if not biasing toward more intensity when these TCs start nearing civility - probably for the better PR -wise. I mean, it's been a dearthy season of sitcom television and iPhone distractions. Hard to image after Maria and so forth that society would be complacent, but that happens. Short memories. Not to mention, these sort of ephemeral natural disasters are obscuring these days behind the growing specter of GW ... Still, they have the guidance and it's ligit - either way. That region near the Bahamas - as modeled in means from multiple sourcing - looks superb for strengthening.

Thought so too - It may be why some of the ensemble members and the actual tropical suite's shown some recent right bias in the track guidance. TPC didn't seem to comment on it as of 5am but there 11 should be out shortly -

That may be the case ... absolutely. I am an honest genuine poster that qualifies everything with confidence adjectives. As in, "suppposition/hypothesis" - honestly, I was just basing it on observations now. Perhaps V is deducing modeling - I mean duh, he says 'next two weeks' I also did wonder if there was a large K-wave event rippling through the hemisphere when I noted the dipole construction of UVM tendencies. I didn't get into it because unfortunately, folks tl;dr everything these days in lieu of instant gratification from the psychotropic addiction of media spectra, and if they are not getting overly stimulated NOW they move on. Cute ancillary aspect of high- tech that is destroying the "enjoyment" much less virtuosity of a good read - blah blah... Conceding to forces one cannot control - I just kept imagining to my self, any such event ripple passing through and the current dipole might tend to reverse? Then, residual ( because they were initially robust ) TW then time with a better Atlantic. See... KW don't absolutely mean anything. We can work with them here. ha Actually since I posted that I saw the Euro spins up a TC almost immediately leaving Africa on D 9 ... interesting or not

It's a fine analysis by a couple of mid-Century starched dry pasty robots of early era Television so concomitant with that era of American history. But man - how egregious was the sexism embedded in that? It was amusing enough when the nerd with the high-tech pointer, pants pulled up way too high around a frame that's substantially frail compared to woman of today ( raised by hormone meats no less ), had the audacity to referred to "Donna" as "she." Ooh. That pushed up a smile right there! But the hilarity kicked in when he grinds it. He actually interrupting hims self to say, "And as it - or to be more precise, I should say "she" - " ... Man, that was awesome...