Typhoon Tip

That's so dystopian melodramatic ... can't they just say it was historically hot and list stats ? lol -

If you can keep the marine contamination from mixing in ...you'll be 94 - that'd be my guess... Did y'all look at anything other than pulling the curtains and seeing a gray sky and dismissing lol ... The entire heavens are superb for heating as clearing rockets east ...it's already peeled away in ~ EEN-Willimantic and that line is moving some 40 mph. With zero change in the nature or ability for temperature rise and only awaits the insolation tsunamis I bet most folks make 90. but we'll see...

Wow, what an inferno in the D6 to 10 operational Euro, huh - First, there's a possibility that we extend heat wave with aoa 90 all week really given a Euro evolution... With a frontalysis rotting ...only managing to stall bifurcating the 'peninsula' of SNE from PWD to NYC ...that is not a very effectually cooling the medium. We do see the very warmest 850 layer does suppress...but we have lingering 16 to 18 C paralleling the flow at 850 ...up underneath the 700 and 500 mb that are also laminar... and that's not really allowing for cleaner front suppression...

Wouldn't shock me if some folks witness a 12 F or more temperature burst between 10 and 11 am ( ~ ) ... Hi res visible loop just has that look ... distinct and pervasive clearing abruptly arrives west to east over the next hour... Cool boundary is still well west with on-going deep warm sector only presently capped by MCS/linear debris about to peel off and expose the land to misty blue sky that shimmers in irradiance, and a conditional atmosphere with tons of thermal momentum ( sloppy...) .. it just 'feels' like cicada heat incoming Today might 93/75 in backyards ... 72 at NWS tarmacs where it makes so much sense to calculate heat indices for civilians ( :axe ) ... someday, maybe...

Nam keeps Logan under 90 tomorrow now... has late afternoon thunder on the qpf layout so it's iffy - Actually looks 91-ish for Tuesday

yeah ... noticed the bouncing behavior too -...interesting, the adiabats support 2 to 3 more but... as you mention, with the wind only just now starting the wiggle tree tops we may yet mix out... hard to believe but - The other thing, bouncing or not we tend not absolute the max until 4 to 5 pm in there... I cannot imagine this atmosphere and circumstance requiring differently ... So far, MOS is admirable.

93 ORH

gotta say... even if it stops at 93 ...to be in above the 95th percentile "relative to the wind direction" - that's saying a lot about this air mass. wow! If it does some how make 95, it sort of underscores more so than the record because doing it backed is worth looking up the highest temps per wind direction...I wonder if 93 is a record for 210... Looking at high res vis im...some pop corn cu streets materializing now and they are exposing the environmental turn-over momentum and it's really looking more 230 or 240 out, despite the surface obs... Edit: not sure about rounding conventions but 17:54 put up a 92 at ORH

BED is 97 too... Yeah, we're probably popping a hundo at these spots... For one, the atmospheric adiabats support it... Even though the low end of the launch-pad, ...so, it may just be a rarer scenario where we get a 35 diurnal spread out of 65 for a low... It's completely clear ...utterly blemishless sky under insolation that's just a month older than the longest day of the year... It's just superb heating ... What makes one wonder what could have been with a fire-up temp of 74 and a WNW wind, huh

Mm.. T1 is symptom of the wind direciton... Southeast of a rough axis ... say, Willimantic CT to Bedford Mass ... anywhere over the region, heat enthusiasts are getting royally porked by the wind direction... Just look at ALB ... and compare the T1 to BOS ( which happens to be Logan...) ... Something is shaving 12 F off the nocturnals platform and it's got to be the Hemlock wind direction pulling in marine toxin from the S... This is why that 240 wind direction is key... SNE is hybrid climate ... it's a mash up of cold marine mix with blazing hot continent... You may as well put a ruler on a map between NYC-PWD...anything SE of there should have it's own climate distinction -

it's a quick and dirty kinda estimator for hundo chances around here... Say it is 90 F by 9 am = 100 has a fair chance with still 7 hours to get 10 F out squeezed out of our unique ability to fail... In Dallas, TX 90 by 9 is slam dunk...around here? We still rock-back and forth in angst even.. but 90 by 9 gives a bit of a cushion for fumbling around with errant intervals of wind or cloud contamination, ...because it's gotten to 90 so early...it doesn't have to be perfect in terms of those other parametric limitation. 10 after 10 means similarly... you only need 10 more degrees with six hours to of heating to play with.. but things have to be really really non-interfering because time is limiting... It's harder to get 10 after 11 and on and so on... They're just non-tested adages ..heh that seem to have intuitive usefulness

'10 after 10' failed too... But hey, look on the bright side - for once, MOS might actually nail the cap temperatures during strong heating potential ...

I often mention FOUS numbers ...but few seemed to acknowledge when I do - heh... so taken for whatever discarded worth this may be... The wind between the LGA-ALB-BOS 'triangulum' is averaging 220 degrees at 18z today... so, that tends to argue that ORH being nestled betwixt these locales ...will likely see a wind between 210 and 230... just adding to you're argument... But here's the thing, this is an anomalous heat delivery scenario for New England/NE and upper MA in terms of typology for big heat... We don't typically get 95+ bakery mist on laminar west structured 500 mb flows... We more typically get them from a ridge nodes, where if anything...we're sort of are lighter and WNW at 500 mb with a well-timed expulsion of SW EML/kinetically charged air that got 'captured' during the building phases of said ridge...such that the dragon fart rattles around inside... blah blah.. I'm looking at the overall structure of this ( step back, super-synoptic/hemispheric) and it's almost like a non- Rosby wave heat delivery... That said, heights are higher than normal across our quatra-hemispheric scope in general...so we're getting this heat excursion out of a non traditional delivery/set-up... Less 'nodal' and more from conveyor .. It just makes me wonder if a SW flow 98+ being unusual at Logan too, is also more plausible given to the anomalous nature of the larger circulation circumstance... fascinating.. HC heat wave?

Mm... it would be unusual to tag 100 off a low of 64 though - I'm not absolutely certain of that ... but by and large most days in my experience, having lived in both rural and urban environments over eastern Mass over the last 35 years ... is that when the high temperature exceeded even 96 .. but 98 F the low temperature were convincingly warmer than last night. The "launch pad" phrasing isn't merely rhetoric - just sayn'... It'll be an interesting now-cast for nerds. Given that the 850mb thermal axis (*nearing or even exceeding +21C ...) passes over 18z to 00z ( supposedly perfect timing too) yet the temperature stalls at 97 .. 98 in the MOS ... That's a shirk job for that temp at that level/adiabat. Oh yeah... And, given the lows being chilly ( relatively so...) may be why that fails to be 100. The standard model from that sigma should be about 104 in the 2 meter logarithmic asymptote. It's almost like we make 98 today as actually as a statistical anomaly relative to these lows .. but, because we missed the elevated starting temps...we lose a key "thermal momentum" ...so we get hot as donkey ballz but no 100... maximizing off a 65 low, but falling short of 21 C air layer... Delicious confusion fodder for petty argument- nice... But, it's quibbling over minutia when it's 97 anyway... I just sayn'... I don't think it is so easily dismissed as a concept and predictive usefulness to look at antecedent morning conditions... Not that anyone is... straw-manning here. In fact, I would almost put money down on the following: most 100 days have a mix-out key interval that does the final sort of relay/goose to the temperature.... It's a micro-physics study really.. but we need that 96/74 F hover there at 2pm to suddenly mix out at some key BL failure/pop and then the DPs drops to 68 and the temp pops to 100.5 ...I am almost willing to bet, that most days that tagged 100 had this behavior or quasi/hinted in the DP curves... Where as, drier days tend to use up all that time rising such that it's 99 by 5:30 ... interesting

Not our forum but heh... 18z drops PHL to frigid 88 for a low Sunday night - Interestingly...has LGA 83 for low ... and Boston low 70s ... but it's pretty clear that Boston is getting ventilated from the SSW/indirect marine wind that model's trying desperately to bend into eastern Mass late tomorrow. It's almost west PHL-LGA-ALB but is SSW east... edit: read the wind intervals wrong ...anyway

You can actually have heat bursts outside of the mountains in all seriousness though - I remember one in April ... 2006 I think it was. They're not as dramatic but they can happen. That would not be taking place in this synoptic scenario ...

I'd say add 3 ... maybe 4 across the board save Falmouth - it's just only past 18z and we typically get that 2nd/tertiary exclamation spike not 'till what ... 4:30-ish ...? Maybe just 2 ... but we're not heading down yet and we're surpassing MOS confidently ...

Lol... yeah, I just thought that would be funny to say ... although - hmm, now that I think about it..it does seem around town here in Ayer that I do cook a tick or two above FIT or BED ... ASH... Maybe not ASH so much... Nashua, not sure what it is about that site but they're a bakery - By the way folks, is there an obs thread for this thing? I'm 91 average at the three home stations within a mile of mi casa ... meanwhile, it's just nicking 90 now at FIT/BED ..etc... I suspect Boston will be 96 and Logan will be 83 until the wind flips at Logan around 4:58 pm when the city grabs ankles and rips what it thinks of using an island in the Harbor to describe Comm Ave. In any case, we have a more active W to WSW breeze rustling trees here ...kicked in right at 90 and the wind feels hot - you know? that special quality under a uncontaminated sky too. This will be an interesting night as the EML inversion really slabs over and we we can't radiate Earth release through a warm layer... I wonder if the wind flips at Logan kidding aside, it pops of 93 or 94 ...then it's 80 or 85 still at midnight... Urban centers and poor families on 3rd floors ftl tonight -

Funny ... the NAM/MET MOS is shaving degrees on the 12z interpolation ...not sure I see that happenin' ... but meh, 97 .. 98 whatever - ...93 at LGA seems pretty bullshitty though

I am "100" percent sure every home station tied into the Wunder' network will be 101 when it is 99 at KBDL/KHFD/KFIT/KBED/KBOS/KASH/KMHT/KPWD ...

60000547325 00191 113008 81332416 That's PHL, 12z NAM FOUS numbers for Monday afternoon... I love that 33C at T1 ...so that could put up 2-meter of 38 C given that WNW wind, BUT... might be difficult to achieve that with that RH2 > 50% though.. Could effect that log-p ... What's funny is LGA and BOS are shy by a couple clicks (30 to 32C) but have critial RH levels at or less than 50% indicating they don't have contamination ( as much...) on this particular run and model, for that same time frame... So, they could actually 2-meter as warm or warmer if they have the 1 to 4pm open sky...

Ah ..okay - so you were being quick and dirty - right ...should not take the banter of the wild-wild-west of the internet to heart ...lol... Yeah, I mean... that sort of discrete analysis is needed blah blah

Tend to agree... Particularly as the summer ages... It's more than half over in climo parlance ... but, insolation dimming is factorable earlier for us than PHL - lol.. but it is... I remember 22 C/850 mb day in 2002 once and we only made 96 F ... The forecast was 101 and heat warnings were banner'ed ... But, from 10:55 am to 1:34 pm a decapitated CB plume was of course ... not modeled from off the shore -front nocturnal nuances of upstate NY, wafts overhead and nope... I remember it being 94 at 10am ...and I'm off to the races in my mind with the old "10 after 10" and "90 by 9" adages ...etc.... Two more clicks is all we could muster for the milk sun... and since the DPs were only low 60s for that one I'm not sure we really verified warning -+22C at 850 ...pedestrian heat. Welcome to "Nuance England"

Question for you... When you guys trace your adiabats and/or use machine interpolation and/or just 'rain-man' it ... do you guess the stop sigma at 1000 mb level... I've come to find that this is insufficient for the 2-meter ( ...kind of an intuitively obvious statement and I know I'm preaching to the choir) ...but, it seems pretty obvious to me also that the lower 20 to 50 mb of the logorithmic slope cannot be addressed that way - if/when one stops at 1000 from 21C/850 elevation ... they will be too cold in "perfect" heating scenarios. I've actually measured this to be true... 21C can easily 2-meter a 100 F on Rt 9 out in Metro West of Boston and city fart 99's to Logan if the wind is right too... DP notwithstanding -

Quick comment on this 07/18/2020 00z operational Euro run ... That D8 is nothing shy of an astoundingly hot layout across everywhere ... W of 80W and S of the 50th parallel, across the CONUS! What does one's snark want to call that ... the largest ubiquitous layout 100 F readings since the late Ordovician ? My god... Pittsburgh to San Francisco is 20 to 28 C at 850 mb ... everywhere But, we notice... one way or the other... the model won't included NE - no shocker there... Anyway, there is a pretty strong signal in all the ensemble means to bulge the heights around Chicago from D6 to 8.5 in there ... I'm watching that. .. because the whispers of the "non-correlating summer teleconnectors" do offer some support for WAR-bridging into that region. But, ...probably owing to the extended time range more so than anything else, ... we see the usual hemispheric dance of first building the ridge nodes 90 to 80W and than immediately pulling/retrograding them back to the perennial N/A base-line that re-situates the ridge over the Rockies... which is code for that could just be losing the signal do to normalization/'beta' correction more than anything else... So we'll have to see where that goes... I'm also a bit leery of the Euro's front ... the GFS for that matter... The latter is understandable - it stretches everything embarrassingly W-E beyond D4's regardless of season, planet or galaxy... so, having 0 physical means to drive a cold front half way across the Atlantic is perfectly a viable solution to that thing... But, the Euro as quick as D4.5 has the flow paralleling the front by late Tuesday and rightfully... stalls the boundary for frontalysis or wobble right through the area ... I could almost see this correcting toward a wash, and having the heat from Sun/Mon settle out to just 90 through Thur before that aforementioned signal might portend another extreme .... perhaps notably related, the Euro did feature a couple few cycles in the lead up to this period that has more persistent heat signaled to 40 N ...