Typhoon Tip

sarcasm aside I actually like this description - seriously

Lol... I mean like "3000" ? That's a commune - The stuff about the Internet destabilizing status quo's is true though - separate matter

Yeah I still think this is turning more blase because of the speed of the flow is too great - This thing is seriously just rocketing along ... it's developing a low, but it's impacting far D.E.M. and/or western NS up that way because it's translation speed is faster than the development rate - and it has to be... because the jet structures are being compromised in the cyclone model. So, with the storm sped up it also tends to be more middling in intensity. You can have fast moving bombs ...sure, but in May, when we're trying to do it all with the singular metric of very deep 500 MB heights, you need to really maximize the UVM to tap into that instability... DPVA is getting blunted by the fact that the flow has velocity surplus before the jet(max) of the S/W arrives at any point along the fluid medium of its trajectory. Partial derivatives for the win!

Coincidence ... most likely. But perhaps there is some commiseration value in noting the propensity for tenderizing butts - lol.. Seriously, we're talking something like a -5 or so standard deviation, middle troposphere anomaly, possibly in two waves... early Saturday and again early Tuesday - though the latter is obviously negotiable. Anyway, -5 standard deviations in January? mmm... that's a whole difference ball-game, and is not the same thing as what this is. Now, obviously there is some climate-relativity there... Like, the sun is modulating the current one from the bottom up and that's skewing the potential of what this thing may/might have done... Also, at the nadir of winter, or the max of summer for that matter, pushing extremes can't really get as dramatic as the transition seasons because they are comparing a deep(tall) column already...etc..etc.. But, removing these factors: this is different and more extreme than anything that set up this recent winter.

Yeah... I have a thought - next is stock-piling weapons. When's the movement formalized for seceding? That bold is a somewhat unnerving in a way. It's a bit of an homage to a real sociological problem that is emerging because of internet technologies, et al. What is happening to humanity because of the last 20 to 30 years... it is focusing local ethos into 'cultural schisms' Seriously, it is a real phenomenon that is/has begun tearing at the fabric of societal identities everywhere. It's tsunamis of information exposure is causing fear, and then reclusive tendencies back into realms of familiarization because the average person can't really process the immense complexity and Globular abstractions of the 'whole planetary' din. And then these 'cultural islets' that formulate become tribal; made up of 3000 peeps that tend to fold in fringe ideologies over time, but close the door on the general voice's ability to instruct the common point of view that by proximity extends too far outside the internal's registry... they become dangerous given time. Not all, but a few... You guys ready to secede yet - ... haha

Looks to me like it’s still cyclogenetic ...it’s just that it’s moving too quick to get its act together in time - it moves from roughly Logan Airport to far down is Maine in six hours that’s unusually fast motion. It’s really you need less height gradient with the same thickness gradient ..and then you would have a slower moving storm capable of doing dynamics and all that jazz It’s possible for storm translation to outpace the kinematic response in the atmosphere - guess what we’ve been dealing with it all year

This 0Z nam solution has thickness is 515 dam over Logan at 48 hours… I have never seen that that deep in the month of May ever. That’s got to be some kind of a historic record for that particular metric –

re the GFS ... the previous two runs were slightly more impressive with the surface pressure synoptic evolution/depth than this run. The slight backing off ( only 4 mb but still...) at 42 hours, as well as the overall slightly flatter morphology in the isobaric evolution is typical of how the GFS attempts to insidiously lure the snow geese into maintaining hope when their isn't any... Ha... kidding of course... but, I could see the next two ..three cycles of the GFS weaken by the same intervals and by 2 am tomorrow morning ...models all agree that the organized coastal appeal from this cold pattern was a red herring? The Euro still had a coastal deepening and may be a compromise as a weaker speedier now snow of consequence - One thing that sticks out to me is that the flow is very fast. Same damn aspect that's neutralized so many threats since early December, late last year. When it gets cold, it has to be a -4 SD middle tropospheric anomaly pressing against the warm heights in the TV and lower OV regions, and that just ends up making for huge wind velocities that become detrimental to cyclogenesis for a whole bunch of glazed-eye tech talk reasons. This seems to be doing what everything has... just happens to be doing it in the middle of May when other years we were in the 70s over a foundation of warm season by now.

Looks like a dramatic month of fortune reversals. both winter the summer enthusiast get bonuses before month’s end. snow chances this week shouldn’t be shocking relative to this pattern look. Nor should the plausible climate correction pattern flip after mid month.

So ... let's cancel the orchard crops now

Yeah, that's taking this year perhaps to a different level. But, right on cue, my sugar maple ( whom I lovingly refer to as 'general Sherman,' ...a 300 year-old, 5' diameter trunked, fire-barked beast adjacent my property) buds all cracked just overnight - it's amazing... Swollen buds for a week, wasted no time --> flowers this morning - 82 F yesterday book-ended by a couple of nights in the low 50s is probably causal. Anyway, not sure how orchard trees are behaving ...s'pose I could scout the apples on the other side of town but ...heh, not really that interested either. Re the status of things - It's actually still lag mild... we're 68 F here this hour under clean sun and zephyrs are not exactly signaling a hurried cold advection. Thing is, the May sun is being under-evaluated ( imho ) by those ragging on warm weather spin doctors ...ha.. Just the same, the 500 mb anomaly is something on the order of a 70-year phenomenon and should not be taken lightly - funny squabble results. I think there is a hard freeze/headline potential at nights and if the wind dies off by day even if for a few moments... it'll be fake mild in nooks that are out of the breeze... I have been noticing the Euro at PSU's granular quick and dirty 24 hour intervals, and one can clearly see the sun's diurnal forcing on the air mass when using that step back coarser perspective - interesting. The 00z runs, which are at the apex of the heating cycle, have been routinely 5 to 7C warmer at 850 mb at/amid the end of the week's big cold intrustion behind that vortex migration through SE Ontario... Contrasting, the 12z runs, which are at the cold nadir of said cycle, slip back by a goodly degrees ... It's like been varying -6C across most of NE at 00z runs, to -12C on the 12z cycles. That variance is purely insolation. That's in the model - it's not being noticed ...but, it does show that the sun isn't going to be denied, no matter how threatening the cold appeal is. If it is sunny, it will offset - matter of how much.

we have only swollen buds in the overriding canopy species here in Ayer, but we are in a radiative/climo cooled valley and it's been uniquely cool this last month - ha. May 3rd is the latest since I've lived here that we hadn't seen sugar maples ( at least ..) in sweet fragrant bloom. What's likely to happen here is yesterday, last nights balm, today's relative heat, tonight's balm and tomorrows ... 68 -ish will be enough to trigger a green flash but ... ooph, you almost want/need these progs to really bust then because this is a nightmare perfect failure set up for apple/pear orchard industries. Lagged spring signal, sudden spring signal... foliage triggers with abandon, followed by acute cold attack? interesting -

Solid and classic spring MOS bust in the midst of 30 year climate brain having one end be low and the near end being high - maybe... I could see that happening with the ECMWF/mid month flashing the other way rather abruptly... I realize others were onto this earlier too but it also occurred to me on that bike ride ...it is not that uncommon to see a climate corrective departure occur within a month of extremity like that. It'll be -5 for 10 straight days, then + 10 for 5 ... end up normal after 15 ... type of numerical layouts do have a precedence for extended duration balancing... -20 for 4 days ... then +8 20 ... with + 1/3 for another month shenanigans. I could see us flipping with that -PNA that's shown up all at once in the extended over here in the GEFs... Before that, I wouldn't be surprised if we clocked a snow event out of this thing. I've seen snow in 6 different May's since 2000 under less impressive conditions. Past doesn't mean future and all that jazz but still - that's a sick look. Perhaps a month of extremes underway

77 to 79 at all home stations within a mile or two of mi casa here in Ayer and feels 80 out there... MOS bust underway ... ?

Interesting immediate observation there for me is that the 850 mb is cold ... but not representing - Imagining if that were Feb 2, and that 500 mb would have and under riding 850mb -15 to even -20 C isotherm down Worcester latitude, so it's like negotiating with the sun - haha... I dunno.. .I'm pretty high confident for an obnoxious cold shot into May there, ...probably a hard freeze/damage to orchard trees even... but I don't know if needs to be all that. Hell, history happens though, too. We'll see. Plenty of time.

As an after thought for Ray - ... next year's seasonal outlook effort should go like, Blah blah blah blah pop-cycle headache prose .... with perhaps a 20% increased chance for a spring cold and snow lingering into May.

Precisely ...glad you picked up on the implicit idea of 'counter-intuitive' ... Anyway, it's long been theorized that this isn't an even march. Some places do counter the mean overall, ...we just may be one of those over eastern N/A There's also that bag of tricks surrounding the Atlantic ( and probably might be somewhat applicable to the Pacific too ) thermo-haline cycling and surface densification breakdown causing the suppression of the G-string ... ( that's one warming we we actually want! ) Jokes aside, I'm sure you are familiar, but with the Lab current and NW Europe getting cold when the rest of the world heats for a century ... I don't think this is that...no, but it's just along that same idea that there are offset regions/phenomenon -

I really wish folks would start ubiquitously gaining exposure to the cornucopia of studies formally being papered/peer-reviewed, that are frankly free now.. Baffling, but seasonal lag due to Pacific warm surplus folding over continental mean circulation eddies was floated by theoretical works in the 1990s even... well... here we are. Would anyone with a modicum of cogency argue THAT up there isn't seasonal f'um lag? It makes sense... because as May progresses into June...the continents concomitantly heat up, and that then stops the trough aspect of the Pac-ridge/continental trough coupling model.. It seems we deal with this more and more seasons...2013 - 217 were four weird years that may or may not offset this ...but by and large, since 2000, late season +PNAPs and cold loading have been increased in frequencing compared to the previous 200 -some odd years of climo, and...doing it on top of the CC hockey stick curve, just like was theoretically proposed. So, maybe no one is actually arguing this - hahaha...but still, it's to the point ( for me ) where I'm not surprised... Oh, sure - that scale and degree of 520 dm SPVs passing through Upstate NY is suprising...but the idea of delaying seasonal commitment should not be.

Yeah, it is interesting to see the GFS attempting similarly ... I'd still suggest modulating that for obvious reasons - one is not typically going to score a win prognosticating off a -5 or more SD anomaly being accurately assessed by any guidance beyond D5 or 6... That said the GEFs - based teleconnectors do carry a cold signal into May - so despite the balm that's likely Sat-Monday.. oy. I don't think that is going to be the same as 2005 May, tho... This cold pattern appears to be fuller loaded latitude integrated/hemispheric r-wave event compared to butt-bang of lore. It's NW territory to Georgia coastal R-wave resonance with unusually sloped flow ...but, that is requiring double stream phasing/N-stream... 2005 May was a different scenario entirely - speaking to the straw man in the room here. That was a cut-off low over the Del Marva that kept getting new back side jet inserts that would re-deepen it and re-engineer new coastal waves that in total pulled the entire structure back west across three separate oscillations some 3 to 4 days apart. Such that some three weeks (basically gobbled up the entire month of May that year) was plagued with nearly identical weather: 48/41 NE wind and rain sheets. I think the ORH hills picked up some sleet and mangled noodle or two in there, but by and large, it was crime against humanity by God- him/herself... This situation isn't that... it's just a raging demo of seasonal lag ... one that probably would only last 3 to 5 days anyway ... the EPS mean is probably safer.

Why - what do you think you are looking at here ? That's not snowing anywhere around here, just in case ... But perhaps your motivation is just to keep things cold ...if so, maybe... but, consider tomorrow's synopsis: 12z NAM's FOUS profile suggest it's likely +5C aoa 850 mb. That was +1C three days ago, then...steadily warmed in every guidance cycle since. That is a typical behavior at this time of year in model behavior/bias, where/when guidance has to do that ...almost like catching up to the season as bush observation. Folks of the anti warm season, negative S.A.D. ilk, you probably might wanna keep this facet in mind when gawking over cold outlooks, that they will tend to modify warm getting nearer. I also recommend backing off the scale and degree of the January in May pattern the Euro's selling...It's trying to back off already, by showing more retrograde motion with the D8 -10 SPV over the Canadian shield; last run it attempted to nestle that 516 DM heights to almost Lake Superior on May 8th - heh, no problem... without a super volcano or a celestial impact event? unlikely... In the meantime, at least for those of us out here in the majority we can enjoy a fine weekend. Tomorrow looks like utopia if these NAM numbers pan out. NW wind veering W over the course of the afternoon, while lightening toward 10 knots flag wobbling... zero clouds, and low humidity, under those 850 mb thermal plumb described above, is probably going to bust MOS and send the temperature toward or exceeding 70 as a slam dunk ... Hovering over driveways and parking lots probably a 75 F ... has that classic spring look of NWS sites 68 F but it is actually warmer where civility lurks.

Well .. in defense of that it’s not like we’ve having trouble lowering eastern Canadian heights, either... It’s like there’s that tendency, then adding to it is reenforcing the Euro tendency. EPS day 6 + is usually tamer and more sensible. Right. I just have not seen one Euro vortex work out since like 3 upgrades ago

Yeah...I'd like to see the Euro pull off a -7 SD vortex there .... oh, wait - day 9 go wonder It's comical watching it take a cumulus cloud over southern Manitoba D5.5 and turns it into west Atlantic bomb by the end of the run. Not sure why this tendency to over-amp anything in the flow D6 to 10 isn't settling in ... yet folks keep using it to make points. haha.

Btw...did anyone else notice this? Tomorrow could be interesting in a nerdy way, between 2 and 8 pm. Both the Euro and NAM show a very deep dry slot between 850 and 500+ MB levels opening and typically when veering the winds from SSE to SW like that ( both guidance), the cloud products will over cake. So partial clearly sweeping across the area, and with LI's regionally in the -2 to +2 range. We are in May keep in mind ...and 2 to 5 pm sun may just add a touch of instability. The air could be 62/57 like with whisky towers ... strange look there a bit. Not summer or nothing but homage-like.

You can see the fight though ... I still maintain that the 850 mb thermal layout relaxed the cold complexion quite a bit terminating 2 or 3 days back when that last meandering cool event finally gobbled up the unusual chill plume lingering south of 40 N and whirled/terminated it out into the Maritimes. What we are left with ( unfortunately .. do to other timings) is a milder troposphere unrealized at the surface - but it is a warmer total depth. It is psychologically too easy to chastise and tenor dour when we are on the N side of an impossibly slow moving warm front today, stuck in the mid 40s and raining. But Saturday ( if you believe this NAM solution, and I do, because it matches the Euro reasonably well from 00z ) will show that warmer potential... Dawn-ish the skies are clear and mid morning d-slope dandy flow is established under 850 mbs of +2 to +3 C ... mid day being lazed by a May sun angle. 12z NAM MOS puts up 64 at KFIT but I gotta think if that synopsis plays out they should bust by four ...say 68 F. KASH ..etc... over achievers over decks, patios, front-yards and driveways - and probably 73 too if the wind were to drop off. Either way, it's not the same troposphere as last week. Sunday clouds contamination otherwise probably warmer. First time we have a shot at stringing two days of that sort of feel ... Just an op-ed perspective: My own expectations for April's are set pretty low to begin with. "...Is the cruelest month" .. for a reason It is, per my own experience, exceedingly rare to string decent days together during this cursed annual journey through seasonal lag that defines the NE climate. The seasonal lag stuff is actually being augmented further by CC too, for complex balancing reasons which we won't get into.. But, sufficed it is to say if however counter-intuitive, this present era "stage" of the warming world atmosphere means super-synoptic scaled 'tucking' over eastern north america ... and that means we have a built in butt-bone for warm enthusiasts from March 20 to June 10 every year. Doesn't mean - as usual - conditions will always suck,... but it does mean a relentless diet of Kevin installation futility posts during that time.. heh. It's like 'white men can't jump'? They can, they just have to work extra hard to do it - that's our spring. We can get balmy but it's harder. We have a long way to go before this miserable spring gets anywhere close to the rectal plaque that was May of 2005 - not even in the same apoplectic universe as that. Lastly, these cold regimed extended frames have been routinely modulated milder heading into the mid terms so I'm less impressed with digging up ensemble cold members and pretending it makes the -(SAD) 10% really unhappy to see that. ha!

No ...that Boston number has it's value - but one has to be a meteorologist to understand why ..so - It was 62 setting out on that 25 mi ride; hit the breeze boundary and finished in 48 F and it was brutal !! We're 30 miles inland as the crow flies. I knew there was risk of that dense cold marine boundary layer rollin in but the gamble didn't pay off - and it wasn't a very good ride because of it. To cold for the gear I was in -