Typhoon Tip

ah why the hell not ... That ICON model dumps pillows on the interior Monday evening -

Did someone post a statistical run-down of the top 20 lowest snow return winters tending to be followed by above normal temperature summers? I may be imagining that but I thought I had seen that in here -

This is a really extraordinary Euro run depiction pertaining the D4 front. Friday 18z the temperature could very well be 75 or even pushing 80 F at ASH ( say...), and be falling through the 30s, 24 hours later.

yup ... been there for a while, indeed..

That's not a reason, though - what does that mean, after 20 years.. .It's a faux logic to break something that isn't broken. I hate that - if there is empirical evidence to support the position as being held by inadequate personnel, that is when you rebuild it. The 20 years is irrelevant. Now...one can argue that at age 42, the longevity is an issue.. yeah, granted. Quite true. But, patterning and real evidence is that this particular individual's future doesn't decline along the 'normal extinction of skill and usefulness' curve ( if we will...), that you normally get from other QB's. There's that, and, that gives time to repopulate the position - which that Tidman kid showed enough promise to be at minimum a stand in if needed, if not taking over. Patriot's fan base is a bastion for high- rootin' tootin' yahoos, too many of which are rah-rahing their way through any analytic regards to this/these questions, but the reality is ... there is a better way to manage this transition than forcing the team ( probably... but we'll see) down a five year road of rebuilding mediocrity. We'll probably never see a 6 super bowl future ever again. The reality is, the base-line probability is that any team is lucky to have one in five years...and the Patriots are probably now riding along that same curve. And they didn't have to... it didn't have to end this way... It seems like self-destruction is fad-cancer currently permeating all walks of societal reality these days.... This whole pandemic thing is serious, but not apocalyptic like the corporate media is cashing in on by creating this dystopian cinema. It seems it's part of the human equation, to want to disrupt good things destructively and force a reset - it's some evolutionary trick (probably) to prevent the tribe from gaining complacency during faux quiescence ( theory)

Tom Brady out according to his own tweet - could be a hoax to motivate reaction? ...but, given the last several months of fervor and tenor surrounding his free-agency, and to mention the SUPER attractive offence the can-do-know-wrong Bellicheck put together surrounding him last year ... probably this is destiny

depressing's what it is ... who the f 'wants' to offset record warmth now and gloat about failing to do so, in lieu of what, 41 by day over 19 at night? sun's nice i guess but it's wasted in this air mass.

This 12z Euro looks is operational turbo-suck across west Tx and Ok on D6

Well... I didn't say 'average' in terms of total - but yeah, 10 years

In the last 10 years I've owned this property I've seen March 'sythia buds 7 times

In any case... it'll come down to offsets - naturally ... Whatever cold there is needs to have double the hot in terms of absolute magnitude or you don't total/n-terms... and Will's right, that's going to be harder if we dilute this weekend... Heh ...not that +5 to +7 is any less repulsive to the cold weather enthusiasts..

dude, you just made his logical case! Normals is like mid 40s tops... how the f are you gonna through mid 40s into the paint without tainting it toward cooler colors... wow

I tried to explain this ... Altho I'm inclined to replace "meh for a large chunk of this weekend' with annoyingly cold and a big piece of shit... but that's cause I hate futility chill in spring with a particularly fervency.

Lol...haha... when I wrote that was thinking zactly that - ... "Octovember"

Since the comparison seems to be > than meaningless after all... Here's 2012 March, ( https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201203): ... I did a spot look up on Hartford, CT for that month and they eye-popped a +9.6 above average monthly mean. Contrasting, as of 1/3 of the present 2020 March in the books, Hartford is averaging +9.9 Now... prognostics would argue we settle off this largely impressive departure as some of these over-top anticyclones move rapidly through a general vestigial progressive flow bias that is unrelentingly the entire Hemispheric character that won't apparently die without actually destroying the planet apparently .. eh hm... And that's a cold source at low levels (off-set by equinotical sun angles). After that, we probably add back, but by weight of numbers it would be slower and take more to get back to 9.9 if a return to that value could/would take place... That's extraordinarily large - that value right there, and even though CC and blah blah blah...that's really just so far over the top that's something else entirely driving that - obviously... Meantime, ORH is +10.3 on the NWS' climate interfacing ...and yes people want to quibble over decimal handling ...but the 10 in front of the "." negates your denial tactic so forget that noise.

Faux warmth before any 'torch' though. 52 F and sun with frost at night in rural settings is meh

It's more than that... It's 72 along rt 2 as far E as 495, which is nothing shy of exceptional for March 10 ....WHILE there is a BD front cutting across the areaa. I don't recall ever having see a BD go stationary on March 10 across NE Mass at mid day

How about that D10 on the Euro for warm weather enthusiasts... The model ( like the GGEM...) is/are both playing into their respective tendencies to bias on the side of curved flow structures in that range (likely), blazing full on spring+ ... having negated any cold evolution off the foreground -EPO. This was hinted yesterday and I mentioned it... and the 00z guidance really went double down. Man, several days ago I back peddled on the ides of March as having a shot but it just seems the -EPO will came and go and the pattern may just decay without ever seeing it modulate into even a transient +PNAP which is more typically what happens post a neggie EPO loading in winter. Only ...it's not winter ...hm. I think those GFS cold shots are an artifice of progressive flow causing too much confluence in Canada ...and is thus also playing into its own bias to be stretched in the farther ranges. probably need to pull the Euro back and the GFS and we end up annoying which is what is typical of Asspril

guidance had been toying with the notion for days leading ... my experience in New England over the last 35 years is if that is ever the case, the boundary ends up in Miami with 10 feet of cold mist as punishment for the impertinent muse of wondering if it might stay warm...

Yeesh... Well, we spoke about MOS bustin' too cold in the extended with this look today and tomorrow and well... bingo - 74 on enough back yard stations to argue that balm over thorougfares and parking lots is real and it's 70+ ... Looking at the NAM thermal plumb, it almost looks like we go back to 60 F now in that post cold front mid week, too... It's March, and we shed obscenity for just above normal - okay... Look at the Euro and GGEM's extended from 00z and 12Z ... I get the impression that the -EPO in the foreground is real, but the seasonal change/modulation is fighting it...and that it may settle into a trough west/ridge east at first like normal...but then said modulation just sort of peters out before pan-systemic cold can do much after... Normally, in the winter, a strong -EPO decays into a +PNA ridge... This is not winter though...not really when your nearing equinotical sun angles.. Also, the +PNA could be 'west-based' like the Euro... Basically, the -EPO causes a warm up/ridge in the east, then, ...decays...into a milder version of the same ridge ... It seems the longer operational runs are trying to do that. I've never seen this ... every plausible dimension of means to get colder is just being deconstructed by the modeling.. fascinating...

Yeah and it seems these GFS runs are more responsive to the -EPO than the opposing signal I was mentioning earlier, re the tandem -PNA/+NAO, which is interesting.. The Euro too - It should be noted that the EPO and PNA are negatively correlated, so the -EPO ( I had forgotten this when I made my statement earlier..) has some tele support. It's really the MJO that's out out of sorts with this N-Pac arc. But, you know ...in fairness, I've always believed that the MJO is very circumstantially significant ...as in a destructive or constructive modifier and not a pattern drive - so... upon further thought, I may be willing to change my stance on the mid month time frame, as ( also ) that pattern relaxation is still prevalent. I need to see the EPO hold ground in the next couple of nights. Also, it's hard to nail down a time frame for specific events off just the EPO cold load. That's like a 4 to 6 day stint of favorability, and role the dice on whether the Pac squirts a wave or two underneath... blah blah preaching to the quire, am aware -

Yeah so not sure it's believable...any -EPO I'd like to see some supportive hemispheric cast members. The MJO is out of sequence for that. The AO is demonstratively positive, and it overlaps the WPO and EPO's northern chunk of real-estate ... The MJO and AO have a pretty significant correlation, and the presently modeled +AO aspect is a good fit for the Phase 5 decay as it is - a scenario that is out of phase with a -WPO/-EPO ... That said, the wave spacing is in process of its seasonal change and the gradient is likely slackening ...and some of these tele start to slip correlation - it's awful early to expect that to save though...

It's interesting ...the models have been constructing that look in the general mean for days ... and typically, a -EPO collapses into a +PNAP and the cold is thus enabled to spread east and so forth... We are not getting the latter more typical large scale morphology from the models, though. It's like it's holding back - repetitively doing like you say... dumping west, without then modulating toward even a transient western mid latitude ridge.. But it really hasn't been exceptionally cold out there either. Active storminess ..perhaps.

It may be 2012 by affectation, though - but that's of course subjective. Empirically it probably doesn't ...because 2012 was so obscene that by shear definition of scale and degree of that anomaly it must by convention be construed as exceptionally rare - to put it nicely... But, again... both years bear an 'affectation' of similarity: early snow, followed by unrelenting bad winter, ends in butt-bang above normal March. It doesn't matter so much - to me - what the exact empirical numbers are, in space, time and thermometer, as the 'behavior' is what is paramount. A latter aspect I think folks are evading some ... or maybe are not realizing - I dunno. The behavioral similarity does give a 'subjective appeal' of useful comparison in my mind. Because they are same in that dimension of perspective: early snow and cold, no winter after... bend over March. Not sure how that can be argued without lying -

Know what's personally musing about that ? About a week ago, I mentioned in passing words to the affect of, " ...at this point, I hope that big ridge in the Euro verifies, because I'd love to pile out of work into a 74 F afternoon on that Monday, with the extra hour of daylight" Oddly prophetic, perhaps ... and while 74 is a stretch, I would definitely remind folks that under a well mixed, tall boundary layer, amid a WSW dry-warm continental conveyor, with 700 mb RH < 50%, and 850 mb rudimentary adiabatic starting temp of +10 or +11 ...that's going to bust MOS cool... The GFS version of that MOS is only 60 at FIT, which might actually be atoned for it's progressive look with that flat wave coming out of the southern GL region... The Euro is west of Chi town withat wave-space during Monday afternoon, with the eastern end of the warm boundary not sagging with typical climo - so...has an air of anomaly in that respects and we'll see. But, the GFS is about 6 to 9 hour faster with that S/W and probably pollutes the works. I actually think this is a good test for the GFS ... ( Euro for that matter.., although the onus is on the GFS, because the Euro being inside of D4 ...it's probably closer to reality ). I've thought all along this season that the velocity/speed saturation, tending to stretch the flow ... serviced the GFS and made it's extended ranges look better than the foreign model types - which diametrically maintain the opposing tendency in the other direct ( meridian ). I just wonder if the GFS is going to start ablating warm ups all summer ( snark). Like it has difficulty seeing the longevity of heat, because it'll keep right on stretching the flow when there is less reason to actually do so ...thus, revealing that it was scoring better this last winter by faux skill (so to speak).