Typhoon Tip

Just one Met's opinion here ... but if we're discussing the trough D5-6-7 ...my belief is that the models were too N-S in their depictions over prior versions. The 00z cycle 'hinted' a correction necessarily beginning. I think that a trough is likely to transgress southern Can/Lakes to NE ...but I suspect it is progressive and more longitudinal in characteristic .. perhaps ultimately progressing on up and lifting the escape latitudes of the westerlies back over or even N of New England. I think the longer term signal is a sort of more 06 GFS operational in nature, frankly ... just because it is a better fit for the negative PNA that's trying to set up heading into the first week of June as portrayed in its one ensemble derivatives... The CDC has the index ( waning in/for its seasonal correlation significance as it may be ...) robustly flipping phase signs (negative), and the EPO is hugely positive...so, the Pacific/North American seasonal-lag folding pattern is being compensated for in that signal just about diametrically ... The CPC isn't quite as clearly discerned, but does have at least a modest heat signal to help foot .. I'm not sure which agency is more useful, and/or if there is a seasonal usefulness, either. The CDC uses low level wind flux anomalies for their orthogonal function analysis. Contrasting, the CPC uses the mid level geopotential height anomalies to calculate theirs. The thing is, the winds at the low levels are instructed by the latter ( ultimately..) as atmospheric physics show... so why they differ at times like this is bit of a head scratch. It may be domain-geometric ..I dunno. Still, the blend is a warm signal... No the Euro's meridional flow structure that also stalls indeterminately, either. I have no idea what the EPS signaling in the PNA or NAO...but I've found that it seldom offers a much variant complexion than the operational version - oh the arrogance. So, with all that in mind ... I think stretching the flow... and/or somewhere between a modest to robust -PNAP is warranted and that we should see more subtropical ridging arcs in and below the mid latitudes over the North America as a correction vector.

Given the source the benefit of the doubt, that's may just have been a sloppy way to remind the audience that the sun offsets at this time of year ... and that CAA terms don't dictate the diurnal temperature variance as a singular forcing agent like they do alone, in January. And "if" that is the connotation he/she has in mind, that is true ... a minus 3, 850 mb thermal layout on a NW d-slope flow of dry unabated open sky may as well be situating everything under god's eye ... 2 inches from the immitter of an microwave oven; it will destroy any12z soundings that start days with any will 'look' that seasonally challenges ( to put it nicely...). But, I also want the whole deep layer circulation synoptic handling to be inside of D5 on this one. I see some semblance there that Euro's depth is overdone... having nothing to do with Crank' methodology ... One, the model over plumbs troughs, and over-domes ridges over eastern NA routinely in the late mid and extended ranges. This is a personal observation that seems to not show up in the verification scores of that model, ...and I don't know why. But I am operating with a striking 100% perfect score at assessing/taking anything the Euro sells in those post day-5 ranges with a fairly large dose of Kevinism marketing strategy... Kidding but I do pretty much count on it over selling 'looks' in that range, and more times than not ..it normalizes a bit. Sometimes more obvious than others...but important amounts when it crosses the day-5 (~) temporality. Two, not that cross-guidance support is the be-all but... I do think that when the GEFs signal at CDC is a robust heat signal heading abruptly into the first week of June, and the CPC version of that time spand is at least a modest heat signal ... (CDC+CPC)/2 = almost no support for the Euro's depth...especially not its weird attempt to set up a semi-permanent trough over NE ... so achored that NASA's probably is pre-fabricating it's monthly State Of The Climate press-release for June to be -10 SD metaphastic attack on specifically Kevin's sex life... Yeah, I'm gonna go with that being over constructed there. Hate to say, but the 00z GGEM is a better agreement with the GEFs teleconnectors... But then of course the seasonal caveat emptor of the teleconnectors from any guidance cluster is that the correlation spreads tend to break down ... particularly in the PNA -related ones, during the warm season. And in the Euro's defense...the MJO is strengthening in Phases 7-8-1 ... it'd be a nice look in January. I've noticed this...it seems the models don't like seasonal-physical forcing on the hemisphere. Look at the difference between the GFS's operational appeal in the extended, beteween the 00z and 06z ...it's like you turn off seasonal awareness in the "brain" of the model engine, and you get the 00z flop back to February ...06z the swich goes back on.

NE Mass is packed in ... If you hopped in the car and screwed down 495 you'd hit abruptly brighter skies at I-93 ... and the temp probably pops 70. 70 and rising here and it was 64 and hour ago, and 59 or so an hour before that...

SW zephyr direction with leaves on trees flipping over toward the NE ... sun out in splashed...temp bounced to 71 with Bermuda blue patches in all directions... at 10 am it was 54 with drizzle and utterly boundless opacity for ceilings. Saved -

suns out ... nice rescue! drizzle over - ... 70 ... 74 is doable. Wunder' DPs are 60 on average and it definitely 'feels' more humid than we've been use to recently. This day is really likely to end dichotomy to the morning

Yeah...it is improving... I was just musing how this seems almost warm frontal in the way it's protractedly taking its own sweet ass time calving the clouds open and bouncing the temps...but it is doing so. The long sun arc of late May helps, too. But vis does show dark regions opening and also there is a discerned ... more S to N trend to the general motion...so it's all a process to an end that features 3 days of 80 to 85 with 66 F DPs beginning tomorrow. The Euro 'hinted' at a warm frontal look yesterday ...what's interesting is that the WPC has a warm from over western NY/PA...but I got to think it's really smearing in reality. Lots of backyard 79/61's in SE and eastern NY already

Weather plays reality games it sometimes seems ... interesting. Today is behaving just like a warm frontal passage. Cloudy and raw morning with sporadic drizzle in still wind, ...slowly dries under lifting ceilings that finally erode enough for splashed sun... Meanwhile, temps risen under your nose...It was 51 and wet at sun up..now, 68. Happened to notice some brightening..step outside, different world than just two hours ago. Next thing you know, 83/64 on the door step ...eastern NY deck and driveway obs, and the rest of the region tomorrow. We may make 70 with DPs nearing 60 later this afternoon. The Euro actually hinted at an amorphous warm boundary yesterday ...shoot I forgot that. yeah But you look at the surface weather obs and there is no warm front being analyzed anywhere around - it does this in the winter with cold acceleration too. It's like there's a sub-defined ... like "pre frontogenesis" of warm/cool fronts coming thru ... perhaps just not recognized parametrically by Met science ...

Excuse the petty boasting look of it … but, I did warn y’all that this would happen for today .. although I admit I didn’t think it would even be this pervasive. I was a little bit under sold on it. I thought it be strata in marine mist jammed up against the ORH hills/eastern mass but this really kind of filled in and turned into a larger synoptic butt bang. This is all happening because that high retreated east in that SE. It’s halfway to England and it’s reaching a tentacle e winds back all the way. Heh there’s also some high clouds Fanning over the top now left over from mcs

This 'heat' does appear more slated to be 'hot' for central and NNE up through the ST L region... We don't have the SW heat expulsion and the traditional W component to the wind and all that... We have heights ballooning over the NE conus for a couple clicks ... and with solstice sun blazing away, thickness can then expand unimpeded and so the air mass home-modulates above normal. Still looks like the region could deal with the first 70 F sack sticker DP air mass out of this... Then, what originally looked like a protracted pulsed heat phase ...now looks like the models are searching for any reason plausible to ablate the heat and regress the season - I swear...it seems the modelers have parameterized the base-line to be winter to off-set GW some times. Heh... I do think that the Euro run is embarrassing because it is in pure violation of basic planetary physical forcing in not just inserting dry air open sky -850s under a June sun, but then blithely lingering the air mass for two days under that same sun ...strains believability too far to be acceptable.

This BD cool shot may max out its affect tomorrow midnight thru morning ... Dawn folk wake up in interior -east SNE to strata deck jam packing into the Worcester hills and a nasty pal to the air. The wind is attempting to just begin the veering process so that may limit the inland spread, but you could tell ...all day over SE shore points there was fisherman's spirit ripping west .. those partially translucent strata shreds that kite west over the beaches ... you see that, you know your chokin' it at sundown and sure enough, last vis frames showed it coalesce and spread to I-95. NAM actually has QPF at Logan from drizzle.... But here's the weird thing ..there's an amorphous ..warm boundary in the euro ... really seems to show up in the pressure contours closer to 00z but.. it could mean a late high type day... It does this sometimes with these BD scenario air masses - they bottom out 12 hours before they flip around all at once. I just have noted these tedious observations about them over the last 30 years ...mainly because they are loathsome and so one tends to remember. This one was really really fortunate to us though, that we didn't get 52 F drizzle cake skies for three days.

Yeah ... case in point. I mean that's obviously overdone ( uh..) but at even half that amplitude it may verify more than not. I wonder if we’re like in an interim phase along the ongoing curve of CC ... where changes in the general circulation eddy for the next years ablate our summers while winters get speed sheared to death… And then who knows what emerges after that

for heat enthusiasts... this summer may be as brutal to your cause as the winter was to snow lovers - guess no one wins in 2020 - eeish Look at the D9 GGEM ... that's sort of an instantaneous canvas of what this summer does, I wonder - heat expulsion after heat expulsion ablated toward VA ...

Yeah that’s about absolute max of what that can do this week; there’s no/not enough super charged expulsion from the Southwest to really get the plateau up ....but, it’ll be uncomfortable

Ur outshining ur karma with that insolence

good luck .. here's what's gonna happen. every summer for the next 18.34 years is going have big plus 10 day intervals interceded by weirdly offsetting -20 episodes that last for 3 day before the whole coronaviruse illness favoring bullshit recycles. why? global warming pig species destroying the previous dynamic. then...after 18.34 years...the total warming of the globe is so pervasive it's lifted all seasonality belts pole-ward at a faster rate then climatology, setting up a climate of vitriol in the social media of that future date because of the 97th percentile nimrod rule which guarantees the vast majority .. don't get how 2nd and 3rd order partial derivatives of complex systems maintainhidden influence on statistical results. may as well not engage - 100% accurate prediction barring a comet, asteroid, super volcano or Carrington shut-down event.

southerly flow at this time of year is not a big heat direction... any time of year over the peninsula of sne, but particularly at this time of year when obviously sst seasonal lag takes until august to even wanna stick a toe in the water n of the del marva... it's sloppy to refer to a s'erly gradient flow as a sea-breeze but whatever... no one asked but this week's ridge and warm look was never a 'big heat' signal. it doesn't have crucial sw air layer expulsion/mass meshing into it. as this ridge burgeons ... there is an old trough along the front range of the rockies that vestigially creates a shear axis .. effectively cutting off any sw heat source from smearing east. such that any heat at all is entirely 'home grown' ... the bigger aspect about this may be the dp surge into the ov and up through ne as the week progresses... that could make 73 dp regardless of any mos products by the time thu/fri role around. but ..if/when temps are 86 and it's 72 to 75 dp ( say ..) who's counting at that point. it's sack sticker a.c. weather. the euro's d10 off the 00z run does have a sw expulsion getting ready to dragon flick the great lakes and that synopsis probably attempts/extrapolates that conveyor into the region .. imaginary d11/12... the gfs more than less similar, too... but of course the 06z of the latter breaks that down. the gefs-based teles are trying to snow in june - we'll see how well that works out... congratulations ncep on your model

It’s part of the delusion game… People don’t want a back door front so if they get to call it something else – but it’s a back door front. why? We/you saw it on satellite ... duh, it was moving toward the Southwest from northeast. That is a back door front. Whether one wants to play semantical games to evade reality by redefining it or not based on whatever irrelevant atmosphere it’s toting along is really besides the point. I went over this a while ago - it’s probably a hybrid for the backside airmass technically ..,but the action of the boundary still went back door.

Whereas I WAS trying to be a d i c k - haha... I think I told you I was teasin' That said, I'm not mincing words, either - this looked worse to me yesterday. That said, pump the breaks - It may end up that way anyway, though? ... tomorrow. I mean, I believe there is truth/reality to the idea of this being more anticyclonic initially here ( than merely a cold wedge backing in more typical with BDs) ... ...but, when this high starts to settle ESE from it's present structure ...the E component could very well doom tomorrow - we'll have to see. Frankly though, the heat next week is inevitable ..even if it is only 2.5 days as opposed to the previous 5 days signal before the 00z cycle of runs.. and, if it ends up 60 tomorrow, it's a 10 K run day for me so fine! as far as mood... it's ideal

Yeah Brian...though your sky is even better than mine Which I am frankly surprised ...I miss-read this synoptic yesterday, as I was beady-eyed obsessed with BD badness ..lol.. I see that and assume the worse per climate - This is an unusual BD in that sense. I think that really nails it that this is really a deeper tropospheric Canadian air mass that happens to be coming around the bend along the anticyclonic stream-lines and thus gives the affect visually of being a BD...which it is - technically - but, it doesn't have the marine cold tainted cryo fart in it because it's not hanging around out over GOM or maritimes before rollin' SW. 850's are still +6 C and we are presently light wind from a land source here in Ayer, and your 70 F is coming d-slope ... We may yet see a secondary marine taint/boundary on rad sort of snake and wobble west later, but for now... this is not the BD I had in mind yesterday. Interesting...

You can see it 'bubble up'' as it rolls under... I think conditions improve down that way at a painfully slow rate. This air mass means bidness - in fact just the last few rad frames shows a collapse SW just beginning and I bet that band is shifting/eroding S in an hour... Not sure about the rest of the day's metrics, but I bet it's not raining there by early afternoon - let's see ...

It's funny with the WFH protocols/distancing stuff ...I almost don't give a shit now that I think about it. I mean, we have Monday off ...then, we WFH in 80 to 90 all week... it's now up to 73 here behind a BD that really looked like a 54 F transport hell yesterday - I'm a bit taken aback I must admit.. I mean I feel pretty confident in the why, but this is MOS bust too - FIT was supposed to hand at 67 and drop to 57 by sun down and it's ...sorry, nearing 70 there with NE wind out of a D-slope source that supports 80 still so...heh... this is a kind of operational/forecasting wtf moment here -

I know your into yard stuff... My friends of the non-Met ilk are all bitching actually because it's been so sunny and dry and they've all got lawn treatments down and don't wanna use the water/hose ...ha! Oy, can't win... It is dusty dry here, I admit. I mean the deep soil/ground is fine still...but 80/30 type days ... that's going tan the lawn hide pretty quick if we don't get some restorative top hydro -

you can see it arrive there on sat really nicely - time sensy https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-New_England-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined ( less marine tainted)

It was a good call... you might remember we set this up the other day; a hook around air source. It gets colder in NYC eventually than you with this tucking - maybe. I am noticing ALB is getting milder to warm again in the NAM as early as tomorrow though.

Now squared away behind the boundary, at least for Rt 2/495...this is thus far just refreshing... I must admit, the house was a tad uncomfortably warm overnight - had some issues with tossin' and turnin' and seekin' the cold side of the pillow. Right now it is 69 F which is actually back up 2 degrees since the initial boundary calving an hour and a half ago. And this did not come in with packing of strata/Labrador marine processed air, either. The sky is mackerel and bkn elevated shrapnel with sun beams penetrating. What all this likely means for today is that the day may end up better than the standard climo for BD madness. Ha. Seriously, if sat/sky coverage continue toward more sun, a NE wind west of I-95 is still a continental air source ( less marine tainted) given the day's leading synoptic. Just got to keep that vestigial gyre S .. south coast is probably butt plugged by that thing either way but I admit to a bit of self-servitude in this evaluation and so am not sure. I mentioned that yesterday ...though this front is certainly making inroads across the area exactly like a BD behaves, ...it's really almost too deep in the sounding to be truly just a low level cold mass-restoring cut back event. It's bringing down refreshing east Canadian air. Now...given time, and an east drift ...which still appears destined, that may change and the air mass may in fact ripen with marine taint- I think the NAM is actually saturating Logan's RH1 level at hour 60 from a 08 wind... See, BD's are not a horrific to me, unless they are transporting that low tide smell along with shrouds of dead fisherman's spirit clouds .. inland. I've seen 93 F plumb to 46 F in 20 minutes ... 89 fell once to 38F in 1998, March 31, in 15 hours, and the first 30 of that in 10 minutes up in the Merrimack Valley of NE Mass... though this later one was also a bit more continental in nature. It's a hard prediction to make - which BD air mass is transporting just continental air on a curved anticylonic surface, versus that plus marine or just marine... The latter is what turns BD's into a Med run on the pharmacy - But, I was just looking at ALB on the old FOUS numbers for Sunday and that site on the grid is offering a 2-meter suggestion of around 22C, with SSE drift and low RH skies/ceiling levels... Meanwhile, Logan is 11 or 12C... Not sure what this means for the CT but probably a line from NYC to PWM and points east is gradated tomorrow. Euro's 00z run started improving Monday some... I am overall, less impressed with the heat this week.. Seems the models couldn't leave it alone and are now obtruding a powerful S/W along or N of the Can border by Thursday and that would significantly curtail the longevity heading toward next weekend if that holds.