Typhoon Tip

That's gonna be a neat trick seein' the GFS pull off a catastrophic April 8-10th ice storm ... Meanwhile it crashing through the 30s with glazing getting going into S NH ... the Euro has 74 Monday afternoon

mm yeah at this point? you go with big UVM off-shore with grazing terminus banding arcing over eastern sections ... and let the chips fall where they may - cape sticking out there as it does gets clipped by deeper UVM but i'm admittedly less certain of their climo for this sort of fast moving graze-job when the ssts are near seasonal nadir - as to ptype elsewhere...it's still early enough in the year that when combining 850's < 0C ... i feel confident we can get more silver car top accumulation even from lighter fall rates. *if this thing's ballast occurs in that 4 to 11 z window... obviously heavier more, lighter less. gardening interests in the east ...look on the bright side... late snow (even slush) when the grounds thawed deposits nitrogen fixing ...

It didn't actually ... The expanse of the CCB/arc of precipitation shield over the NW quadrant is a bit more west, but the low its self is if anything merely more progressive (faster) along the same track alignment.. Which .. to sensible weather interests, what's the difference? If that's all one care's about, nuances in layout structure don't matter. You only care about what if anything is falling from the sky and/or kited along by how much wind and at what temperature ... yadda yadda. Agreed.. On whole, folks should keep in mind that this thing is really hauling ass.. Even if it were a direct hit... it's a 6 hour nor'easter ...maybe 9 but it would be limited for impact in the best case scenario, with some lost on the edge hours due to marginal thermal plumb - Tendency to over imagine what this "could be" in between the sentences of these posts...

Don't have much experience with the off mains Euro cycles. ... if they should be treated like just another ensemble member, similar to the GFS' but the 18 Z Euro and NAM going opposite directions at 36 hours lead is what it is I guess somethings

Hopin the Euro warm up is ligit

Solid shift .... east on this NAM run. Was wah waaaah

It'll prolly compromise and stop short of your region. Not sure why ur directing that at me anyway

Furthest from most minds ... no doubt, but that Euro run's standout for me was not the slightly closer pass early Wednesday, it's the rather abrupt turn toward warmth D5 through 9... The 00z wasn't 'cold' per se, no.. .But this run has more panache for being +3 or +4 C at 850 with highs situated far enough E (save Saturday) to allow lest cold contamination/marine/NE plague

good post! the ballast of uncertainty regarding any such -NAO's effecting our weather is related to this idea above ...

It's a bit of an over-top pattern after that... No real warmth so long as the balance of the surface mass keeps ending up N of our latitude ... I keep seeing these models engineering these variantly sized high pressure regions ... slipping them from western Ontario toward NS like an assembly ... That'll send perpetually wrong air masses relative to the hopes and dreams of the sane - and no snow...so forget any moral victories ... Just like a fist closed around buds ... It's amazing there's even a plant biota around this part of the world ... and the land isn't just some barren semblance to an open tundra for f sake... Anyway, I hate that look - you might have guessed. But, ...I don't ever carry any delusions about April in the first place. The only "nice" days we really get, 90% of the time have to come from faux warmth associated with an accidental drop off in wind while there happens to be a mercy sky-light timed through the melange of strata and/or overrunning clouds. Otherwise, you really really ought to consider a second home abroad if you possess the wherewithal .. Not necessarily another country... per se, but outside this atmospheric equivalence to a cold landfill where the sky pull's it's pick up truck in and dumps it garbage so the party can rage on some place else ... mockingly nearby too.. Just imagine ...being able to flip the bird and go to Vegas for month... a Safari in Africa ... anything other than partly to mostly cloud with 52 F 25 mph breezes for 30 days - in between backdoor fronts.

Heh... several days ago we mentioned that this thing was transitioning ( in the model runs of the moment ... ) away from a meandering climo low over the west Atlantic... to more an acceleration due to partial reconnect with the westerlies... yadda yadda.. It's fascinating how this has changed... There really never was a climo low at all... This was an open wave southern streamer all the way... forced east out of the SW and is in the process of phasing as it comes through, in a flow that is too fast to phase it sooner ...whole thing ends up rocketing by and seriously delivery in the Maritimes... I just wonder if that transition being so gradual distorts/obscures the truth that the model were flat wrong with the climo low and the open wave is more coincidence.

Yeah that's basically the analysis I provided Kevin yesterday afternoon... at the time the EPS were also west enough to graze SE zones. At the time ... I said it was probably cat's paws if by day, ... inconsequential car-top aggies by night ... but, it would not take a whole heck of a lot more heavier fall rates to blue things up more than that .. it was that close! I also said that it would take a pretty significant [ unlikely ] adjustment inside of D4 to get anything west of Worcester ... particularly when considering the source scoring and the Euro cluster.. But stranger things have happened. Is this is typical modeling behavior ... It's hard to separate 'real' meaningful adjustments from 'what we want to see.' When the collective observing people are obsessively focused ...ha, doing everything in their power shy of telekinesis to get the storm west ... these subtle adjustments might only 'seem' bigger. But are they? Or are they just normal noise behavior in the models that we usually don't pay attention to because we are inside the bear's cage with room to spare. interesting...

Typical of spring ... I'm not saying this/that is going to take place .. but it leaps to mind; a cold-ish overnight/early morning sun in a marginal atmosphere ( meaning ... a tick or two above or below 0 at 850 mb...). Yet April sun being high and hot can certainly processes the thicknesses warm by comparison later that same afternoon. I've actually seen an interesting phenomenon ... maybe countable on one hand, where a band of light rain with occasional PL are bouncing off of car tops. Overhead there is an overrunning band of dense cirrus ... sometimes accompanied by virga tendril as though a goodly mass of the fall is actually evaporating ... and the glow in the western horizon overtakes, ... The band moves off and it's 68 F that afternoon in a warm sector. Usually the transition from cool to warm side across the warm frontal slope is a smeared out tortured journey ... but every once in a while you get that unnoticed flop transition - usually the last week of March to the first week or two of April is when that happens...

Of course... keep the criminality of it going ....

Subtle nod ... and I mean really subtle, to the EPS' -NAO vibe because the GEFs are on that too...approaching a the 10th really tanking at both agencies... I stress weak nod though because in April, the means giveth ...and taketh away as the get increasingly capricious and in fact, I've only seen them hold onto a teleconnector signal for D10+ at some-odd < than 50% of the time. Probably be a -NAO with 88 F at at HFD

Ah hahahaha.... This is called 'goading' folks - old dick head weather god in the sky buckin' for one last gullible soul - any takers! I bet the EPS is about as accurate as it was with those NAO calls it fed us a couple/few times over the winter too - good luck... Although...mmm.. come to think about it - there could be some reasoning to support related to wave length re-arranging concomitant with seasonal change and... I dunno prolly bullshit and just another reason to "seem" right so it can maximize what it wants to do to your bums -

Trended close enough to graze SE zones .. primarily SE of PVD ... but marginal so it would probably be cat's paw if by day and non consequential car top aggies by night... If it trended closer and fall rates were a little heavier for said SE zones ... that would make the difference given that temperature profile ... but compared to that 12z mean we would need a massive correction to get that same consideration anywhere west of Worcester - it can happen ... less than likely given the range and the scoring -

April being April ... fair chance you'll be getting served that like an open bar at an Italian wedding

There wasn't anything to clarify... You're evasive when you are wrong - you don't read very well... Enjoy your mediocrity and have a nice day

25 F colder western Mass than eastern ... impressive cold front.

Wtf -

pretty sure I said "mid week" no ?

Mm... just too much longitudinal component to the flow ... probably [ in part at least.. ] owing to the fact that we have this interesting problem that has emerged in cold season climate, where any time a storm can develop, the fertile baroclinicity is saturated with wind velocity outside of S/W (ambient field) ... i.e, too much gradient. But that may or may not be all of the neggie interference with this thing in keeping it's W-E so stretched - I mean ...that can happen in the 1880's too. Long of the short... if there was just a subtle amount less of that W-E component, we'd be talking more certainly about a 06z NAM like solution - but one because the low actually makes more of a coastal pass as opposed to a clip job/overzealous ballooning of the CCB head such as the NAM. If somehow through the [ apparent ] prestidigitation of wind vagaries this thing can indeed curl N more ... that's obviously cold enough to flip things down to 1,000 feet if not the whole column ... marginal but enough. But ... here in reality ... all the mechanical wave space associated with this mid-weeks lower M/A cyclone have been squarely on board over land, ...inside the denser/physical sounding domain.. . across a few cycles at this point. I personally, unless there are gaps and or unexplained initialization problems inside said grids, not sure where we are going to get a NW correction from... Hm, I suppose, if there is a convective burst leading the cyclogenesis phasing ... maybe in some Sci-Fi sense we can lop some diabatic flux into the west Atlantic heights, and kick some resistance to eastward escape from that, which admittedly has been seen to do so in the past. Unsure though..

I was just ruminating back to 1998 ... 21 years ago - seems sort of weird when you say it that way. But, March 29, 30 and 31st of that year were 89 to 91 F each afternoon. This thing? Today? Seems like shaving pubic hairs around here getting a day like today on March 30 - that musta been one hellluva fantastic anomaly back in the day... Considering it's been 21 years with no return ... the rate is 0. Speak volumes

yup ... no question the retreat is underway... Times for Brian about when the sun sets... perfect! J/k Brian.. seriously though ...I argue that the front "mixed" to this position above more so than move 320 miles in two hours ...but stranger things have probably happened.. Anywho, not sure how precise WPC's sfc analysis is, but this is from here, https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif , and you can see a west nosing dam signal so it might be slammed shut like a bull's ass at fly time -