Typhoon Tip

Yeah I was going to suggest a seiche wave effect too.

reminds me of what happened farther east last week -

There's no question the warm boundary is currently collocated with the 500 mb streamlines ... It makes sense that it may have unfolded to about HFD over to SW RI... It might have had a chance to get to the Pike but we also have cool air banked in; viscosity/local topographical effects that are impeding. Mentioned earlier... we deal with limiting factors endemic to this region... in that the higher els of the Berks tends to pool dense air and protect it once said pool has filled in ... I wouldn't even be surprised if there's some SW push as this air up here is getting cooler with this rain too -

Nah...that doesn't mean the warm front is through there... Side's WPC doesn't agree -

yeah...and in the defense of the world that exists outside my skull I do tend to come off heavy handed with principles of Met and that probably rubs folks the wrong way ... heh, gee ..ya think ? anyway if the sun comes out and can diabatically heat; that can aid in warm frontal leaps ... right on! However, part of that successful leaping means the DPs actually have to come with it. Without them, it's really just a lucky sunny interval in an otherwise cold butt plugged typical New England stew - which frankly, I'm inclined to think that's how this results... Also in that as we type, that line is plugging SE and will prooobaby ( I'm guessing ) denature the atmosphere to a swath of low clouds afterward. I can't wait until tomorrow... The NAM has 30 to 40% ceiling level RH over the region at 8am ...with offshore flow at 850s supporting about 83 F ... totally different day

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun. Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours. But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector... Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that -

I would put the 850 mb warm boundary inside the gradient - because the boundary is not straight up and down ...it is sloped, such that that it terminates/escapes skyward above the respective sigma levels in the x-coordinate ...so, it is deeper over CT and entry into the boundary interface above that level over S Nh ...so the front is really bifurcating this image an angle - although ...wait...is that doing the depth of the column or is that an just the 850 slice... I may not be right - depends on the product orientation

Heh... you need to have one of those south shore/east shore sea breeze convergence CBs that parks over SE zone and rains out over 2 hours... sending out outflow wedges that cause back-building... you've managed to miss the right of passage for your neck of the wood this summer. That's not fair, huh?

You didn't ask but "no big heat at all until next summer" is pulling at my shoulder sleeve in general. The trend all year since the snows of May ( ) alas! finally yielded to summer, has been the models either over extending heat ( Euro ) in the latter mid and ext ranges, or the GFS over abrading them S because that model refused to migrate the core of the westerlies N like a seasonal good fair player should. Somewhere in between these respective biases, we put together a warmer than normal summer. But, we notice that there were no/few big heat dailies beyond norms? In fact, I wonder if the number of 95+ days we actually had were below normal. We did this summer off something more akin to GW ... no question. If I extend the link ...well, shit here: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ...I'm sick of referencing this stuff... this is all stemming from veracious sources and is based upon empirical data -derived objective hypothesis and theoretical application ( got to dispel that strategic knee-jerk denial mantra right off the bat!) ... It is clearly stated in these reports that nocturnal low is thermally more residential to holding the temperature up over day-time highs all over the planet ...but in New England, we also have our geographic/geo-physical neggie feed-backs on preventing EML and/or super charged 850 mb kinetic layers from penetration to our latitudes ... blah blah preaching to the quire I know... I was just pointing out, just in case, the reader is confusing an above normal ( perhaps historically so) summer with a "hot" summer lol... But it matters, because conceptual that trend connote we can lose it in the other direction pretty quickly with continental evacuation of theta-e. I did a misplaced op -ed rant just now over in that convection thread for today ( probably should have put that somewhere else...), that covered the odd-ball nature of this vortex NE of Maine that is really causing this cool departure here... It's related to why I think we are going to have trouble other than brief excursions into warm sectors from this point forward. Yes, ..in effect the the back is broken ... But it's not because there's no longer heat continentally available - it's because of the circumstances surrounding unusual and earlier than normal higher velocity ambient flow causing earlier than normal R-wave genesis patterning ...and that tends to feature +PNAPers...

Off -topic but this whole cold banking into Maine and SE Ontario around the SW arc of that seasonal anomaly whirling around up there, also indirectly conducting SPC's failure like a great maestro of a symphony called poor allocation of technological wherewithal ( heh ), it is all happening because of a faster than normal ambient wind energy in the hemispheric scope and scales. There's all kinds of mirror feedbacks popping up all over the planet like that. In this case the unusual ongoing subtle but real HC expansion is triggering lingered higher than normal jet velocities that have empirically been observed all over the NH during winters, carried over in smaller proportions but non-negligible during summer. Wave mechanics at super-synoptic scales then means that R-waves didn't get quite as lost in entropy as they normally would. One should simply not see this on a weather chart in the first week of September, when looking at 1800 through about 1982 reanalysis as one's template mean: I mean, they don't disappear altogether; we're talking about "approaching"? But that up there represents vast, deep constructive R-wave fed-back anomalies that are both x-y and z coordinate not supposed to happen when compared to the previous data mean suggestion - clearly something has changed. And, that is an assertion based upon persistence, too. This is a snapshot that is increasingly more common really since the super Nino of 1998 ended, albeit more noticeable with increasing frequency spanning the last 10 years. It's important to note because we are transition from the old guard to the new behavior norm with the GW stuff and many middle aged weather folks and enthusiast are defaulted to being the unfortunate inheritors of different spectrum of experiences, from 1960 through 1998, as as their guide. Anyway, this vortex up there, I watched it closely evolve since 10 days ago in the EPS and the operational version... as well as the GFS cluster. It really didn't set up like a typical synoptic progression. It's really like the atmosphere spontaneiously "gapped open" and then that space was defaulted into a low pressure node - it really appeared more so to be harmonic planetary vortex/R-wave ... ( pseudo " rogue" in the atmosphere ) that created this thing up there, more so than a cyclone maturing in the flow in the standard sense of the "Norwegian Model Low" NML. This is a result of a global warming as a wild op ed assertion that is guaranteed to role other Met eyes. But, you cannot drive 70 to 90 kt sustatain jet mechanics over the arc of the N. Pac into western Canada, without wave mechanics becoming more than neutralized at any time of year. Season is irrelevant ...it's about kinematics at that point... This is why we have been entertained by so many unusual CAA events in Octobers ... deep enough to send 'packing pellet' snow in the air, if not unusually early wet snow from synoptic events since this tendency of HC expansion began in the late 1990s and has advanced since ... intruding upon the lower Ferrel Cells latitude ... and the problem therein is that the boudnary between the HC and FC is amorphous...It's not like you put a ruler down on the 570 DM contour and assume away. The velocity is skewing the season end points. It's inducing 'fold over' trough nodes like this in autumns and in springs ( they are somewhat analog to hemispheric scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz waves). This needs a definitive empirical data fetch...but, I personally observed perhaps 5 autumn and/or springs with snow or snow-supporting atmospheres between 1970 and 1998 ... I have witness this 15 times since 2000, while all this HC and gradient saturation speed anomaly stuff become ever more evidence.

Not to be a douche and you don't know me ...I don't think .. but, I don't believe that front actually can move NE of it's current position looking at this at a broad conceptual approach to this situation. ..as in fluid mechanically it can't. Then, after that notion... one has to consider New England's climatology with BD-pinned fronts, which is just a dense clay of other geographical feed-back no-no's - eesh The flow is paralleling the boundary; it's like all of the analytic Meteorological brain trust has gone mad. When do warm fronts penetrate through an abrasion flow? That is like ..physically impossible. This situation seems(ed) dead to me when I saw that yesterday in the models..W-NW flow at mid levels. What is SPC using? Now, granted ...that shuts off any hope of "SB" in the SB CAPE.. but elevated... mmm maybe. But they are not talking about "elevated" per se convection in the morning write up... Which, by the way folks - there's currently a cut-off vortex near the 50N/50W position slopping cat -paws over eastern Ontario above the 50th parallel, and that feature is pinned in position. That backlogs the W-NW or arguably more NW flow at mid levels here, which pins the warm front there... end of discussion. Now, this was all modeled ..I am actually interested in how SPC came by their enhanced geographic layout - because looking at these very real and reasonably well modeled synoptic circumstances, I don't see how they come by their risk assessed region like that. The only way I see Enhanced clear to Springfield Massachusetts ... is if clearing opens up sun almost entirely ( 90% open ceilings/cloud extraction) and the atmosphere gets diabatically forced by the sun... but, the sun is now mid April in intensity ... ( for perspective ) ...It's not May-July out there so even so, its harder for the sun to do that at our latitude and depth of atmosphere east of Berkshires .. Moot anyway looking at sat trends... However... ugh, I am - reluctantly - interested in if there is an elevate hail risk where any stronger convection that is feeding purely off the 850 upglide parcel lift on the flop side of the front, and is paralleling it racing SE... yeah...maybe. But, we may as well not even call this a warm front. .. There is a 101 synoptic term that is out there available for this sort of phenomenon and it is called a "stationary" front. And, with the mid level flow abraded(ing) SE that like it is ... sawing off any warm intrusion attempting to mix down... that leaves only one possibility - the models are/were wrong ( but so far nearing mid morning the pinned front is well handled) I guess if the vortex NW of NS/NF weakens during the day, and the mid level flow veers slightly... and the stationary boundary does actually "warm" for a period of time...it might intrude into CT ..but that's not modeled to do that... I don't think ?

Don't feel so bad ... there are two distinct chances for "responsible lust for destruction" on the 00z Euro beyond this joke, each far more interesting than this one ever should have been allowed to be...

Nope ...

oh you laugh ...but it's just a matter of time before we get a transgender hurricane ...

Laura's eye looks like it's just taken on the stadium structure -

The outflow from this thing has truly taken on awesome geometry - particularly as it fans mare's fractals over the entire expanse of the eastern Gulf -...wow...that's probably helping to intensify this because that kind of superb radial structure means huge mass necessarily needs to be conserved and that mass is coming into the bottom of Laura's chimney ...that's how that works... which is all synonymous with lower sfc pressure.

Managed 77 F at most home stations sites on Wunder around N Middlesex CO/Rt poop - fwiw ... Feels nice out... more of a perfect 10 day vibe than an autumn one. Can't rush these things folks - you'll get your winter... patience - haha

It's funny ...I was just coming in here to comment an opinion that I thought this was a chance to be a particularly dangerous event - but because like Andrew...it may actually be intensifying as it is coming in... Camille did that too back in 60-whatever... Those storms that quasi RI right at that wrong time for the coast - eesh. Not to diminish the threat or significance for those in harm's way, but ... it's probably a good thing this misses Houston/Galveston Bay and ends up further up the coast toward Port Arthur where ( uh...I think..) there's less population and infrastructure. Andrew ( 1992) exploded within 75 miles as it was passing over the straights between the Bahama archipelago and Florida ... drilling out some 45 mb of central pressure depth over night. I think it went from Cat 1 to Cat 4 ...but then was reanalyzed in future papers it was ultimately upgraded to a Cat 5 as it was coming in and scouring neighborhoods in across southern Dade county/ Miami burroughs. You know ..I later read a paper by Theodore Fujita ( think it was him...) that there was evidence of twister clusters embedded into the eyewall... with repeating subsidiary suction spots evidenced by debris layout... I mean, can you imagine that? Like ...your already sitting in 120 sustained wind with repeating tornados coming It's like, where's the sharks! ...although you probably don't know it.. I mean at those kind of kinetics, what's the difference - haha sharks or not

Yeah...the land rise there is shallow... that region can be 20 feet above sea level quite far inland, particularly lining estuaries and river inlets... Those features will also focus surge ( 'funnel effect') and that will raise water levels quite far up water ways. They have the same problem down around eastern VA and up along the Del Marva and probably up into Ches. Bay ... those regions have tidal flats that stink of craw fish turds at low tides in neighborhoods some 7 miles from any beach. For some reason, big surge storms tend to hit Florida or LI with more frequency ... anyway, places like Port Arthur TX ...ho man

Was this written by scientist ? "...and futuristic air and ocean drones ..." sounds like something my 12-year nephew would say - LOL

While the longer term pattern still argues for summer at least being on life-support ... there's no question this is like the 'shot across the bow' air mass Will and I have talked about in the past. I almost feel though that this is flukey too - I mean that weird deep hole in atmosphere that seemed to spontaneously come into emergence NW of NS up there. I'd been watching that in the models; it really didn't come from very much and it really seemed to be a planetary node - kind of weird. Put it this way, running 90 kt 500 mb westerly cores from Montana to Maine in early mid august through early september is part of the fluke. Interesting... either way... my hypothesis is a cooler autumn relative to the hemispheric signal ( which that means...it may not be cooler relative to the climate numbers, but when compared in situ to the hemisphere) ...and that may be enough for packing pellet CAA unusually early...probably pre halloween sometime in October.

Heh not sure I buy the Euro D5+ ... The GFS, while probably not 'as good' of a model in the long run, does seem to be scoring a bit better than the Euro's consummate attempts to heat wave the OV to New England regions in that D5.5 to 9 range it's been doing all summer. The GFS is obnoxious. I get it. It's annoying how it keeps suppressing the westerlies south and hosing these insane jet velocities so anachronous to summer, which should be more nebular with weaker velocities, etc. That said, we've been verifying unusually well defined R-wave structures and faster jet velocities all summer - so...it's like the GFS is onto this, but just doing it too much? It makes it hard to know how much so. I bet if the GFS was outfitted with the Euro grid density and then had on with its own 4-d yadda yadda it'd actually be a better model than the Euro. Somewhere in between probably, what's new -

Steve is like the heckler in the audience explaining to everyone why tongue-in cheek/sardonic wit isn't funny -