Typhoon Tip

This "post warm up" signal has been there quite long... not to tout but I told folks not to discount the longer lead emerging operational systems in that Mar 17 - 25th period a couple days ago.. I was expecting this sort of model run like a late trimester - Not every long lead signal should be evenly discounted - Now is one of those times where it is worth keeping an eye on...

Yeah...tend to agree at this point. I mean we all know in the late mid range... warm-ups can so often ablate down to 18 hours 52-55 F misters with the good stuff NYC south... but there's just no markers to really retard it this time.

Thursday'll make it too if that synoptic serious of charts is right... anyone wanna bet? you'll lose... It's chilly at dawn and one wonders, do they keep track of diurnal change as a metric? Because that could be historic that day... You'd be frosting in the country side and in the low 70s by 3pm and folks keep in mind, we now get high temps on average an hour later in the day starting tomorrow. But you got +10 C knocking on the over NYC/ALB and deep layer laze faire SW flow sweeping in unabated... Kevin's got a Kleenex and lotion out for this napey shit - Course, gotta get those charts to verify -

This is like the antithesis to the Indian Summer progression later this week. It'll be guilty warm ... I wonder if Thursday overnight can even plumb 60 for lows. Those two days will eradicate all snow pack outside of those parking lot Swiss Alp piles ...clear back to Brian's latitude. It'll slam to a stop at his door and Dryslot and so forth, as there's just too much cryogenic mass above that ~ latitude. Then, I still insist looking over recent operational tone and tenors, and combining at least with the American teleconnectors ... that winter should return for a solid 10 days. What form precisely ...? Who knows, but snow should be there on a couple of different occasions. Thus, the antithetic metaphor is complete. In the Autumn, it gets cold... perhaps convincingly so.. with even a snow. Then, there's a Rosby roll-out, the pattern flips and there's a mini mud season followed by a few days in the 60s and 70s if not a temperatures of 80.

I don't gain access to individual EPS members but ... there are a few GEF individuals that hone amplitude between the 17th and 24th or so..

Not to break into the Sunday mojo ... but man... the Euro puts up a perfect day for May next Wednesday ... Every run looks a little better/polished, too... How about the +14 C 850s in deeply mixed BL pouring into CT/ W. Ma by late afternoon. That's gonna be rather abrupt... What's funny, that pattern at D10 ...ever so whispers watch out ...

Yeah, it's still there... waiting - I wouldn't focus so much on those particular dates, but post the 15th ... that looks interesting for week to 10. It's in the GEFs in both agencies, but more demonstrative, perhaps, over at CDC. Both have a rather concerted rises/complete phase change in the PNA... Going from modestly negative to a mean of perhaps +2 or even +3 SD. That is a huge mass field alteration/expectation. One such would be robust mid latitude expression of western ridging. We'll see where that leads

Y'all be arguing about this as your dying from it - movin' right along...

Yeah... agree with Scott - too early to tell if next week's Euro complexion whittles down to 20 hours of 52 F mist before refreeze ... Crucially the handling of the lead high pressure ... spatially and timing. Obviously if the high pressure retreats E... no one warm ups east of Albany much on day one of that. The sun will obviously play into that affect/off set too.. .but I've seen 850s of 15 F and temps at the surface of only 48 F with east winds in full sun in late May. And if that regime plays out... then as the front approaches we end up with 52 mist or something like that. If the high settles/retreats more south than E... different universe. Either correction at this range -

As a side-car concept to the "relative importance of sensible weather" discussion... There are theoretical works that describe mid latitudes over the continents as plausibly experiencing extreme cold waves due to warm climate change ... counter-intuitive as that may be. The focus was during the earlier phases of said change. The ideas center around oceanic basin heat surpluses triggering an increased frequencies/distribution of positive geopotential atmospheric anomalies in their eastern regions. The resulting tendency for more arc flows at increasingly higher latitudes establishes cold conveyor activity more frequently ... into the continental winter seasons. This all goes back to the earlier days of GW prediction and the primitive climate modeling (by today's standards) of the late 1980s. I'm not sure if those studies are still carried out or even followed through .. but I recall reading of this way back in the day. It was (also) contained in the earlier discussion over the thermal-haline/Atlantic ocean circulation, and how the ambient salinity can cause the G-string to collapse...etc etc.. Well, flash forward 30 years. Who knows what the status of the gulf stream is, but the atmospheric stuff seems to be a fit there over the last 10 years. Lot's of warm departures interrupted by excessive if not historic cold.. Interesting. I also recall reading along the way that GW/climate change therefrom doesn't mean "warm" days necessarily ... more like extremes ... so perhaps that's concomitant.

Pretty glaring signal persist approaching the Equinox. If that continues... don't ignore extended range eastern cyclogen -

watch it turn into a two days at 52 with fast gray streets and mist, then refreeze with a storm missing to the south... Followed by a Lakes cutter ...Then, a big bomb on the charts that just before it happens...mysteriously vanishes because of the sun's normalizing power at this time of year. Sad trumpet end to the winter.

Know what ... this is tediously nerdy to say ... but, I bet on south facing wall bases .. .the snow will receded several feet by the end of the first day, and you'll see crocus shoots by the end of that second day - particularly if the sun is part of that warm up. At this range though ... to be honest, I could see the Euro correcting flatter. We have to also remember that the Euro has an ever so slight amp bias in that time range, such that it could be winding things up too deeply out in the Plains, ..which concomitantly would drive heights and DVM up down stream and there we go - perfect weather, perfect lie. I guess all I'm saying is that for spring/warm enthusiasts, this is no different - or shouldn't be seen any differently - than some D8.5 coastal. If we get to that to D4.5, raise the flags

Yeah...it's really a continuation of that 00z for those days ...perhaps adding even a tick or two at that... Still, folks should be aware that is not likely the final say. If it is... so be it. Couldn't be happier to tell you the truth but having lived in this area of the world's unique spring charm for 962 years such that I have ... odds are, that's all setting up to maximize how sore the butts can actually get the week later. We'll see...

I don't know what's worse, either ... the "80% of the time" ...or having it be warm and dry and utopic, ultimately ... ephemeral for week, THEN turns 100% of the time through mid May... Ur almost better of thinking its still winter...

I noticed that about the GGEM last Autumn but have been biting my tongue on the subject matter. Not via this product ... just the week to week observation re the guidance that it seemed to be doing better. Something I actually noticed at a point in time when the Euro, and the GGEM, were landing on similar synoptic layouts as far out as D4 ... D5 once or twice. I remember internal monologue wondering at that time, "if so ... either it is doing better, or the Euro is doing worse" - heh. Anyway, I'm not surprised to see that improved curve there...

Since you mentioned that one, the absolute paragon of the bowling season phenomenon ... Folks should know/may recall that the Saturday before hand, just two days prior, back yards were in the mid 60s. I recall walking the University Ave bridge to Fox Tower dining hall up at UML in the Merrimack Valley, and the air was waving like you see in an African documentary. I had just left the Lab, where the overhead stat monitor was pushing 63 at 11:55 a.m., I distinctly recall, and the day-2 DIFAX charts had a three or four contoured hornet sting passing under Long Island - it's a funny thing in that setting... As I stepped to the wind just before leaving for dining hall Saturday brunch, all of college life so clueless about what was coming. High based, low DP cu fractals lazily drifting by toward the south. Kevin's coveted nape exuberance so deeply immersing that all of society's eyes were glowing as though OD'ed on heroine. That ... and the fact that 20 -year old college woman spilled out onto the commons on blankets in two pieces... holy shit the humanity.. Two days later ... 30 inches. Budda boom budda bing

Yeah... I actually agree (tentatively) with Steve as we approach the Equinox ... and yourself; that "signal" (if we wanna call it that) began showing up a couple days ago. One thing about it though that makes me a little apprehensive is that seasonal changing that's kicking in.. Different than normal levels of uncertainty, it adds a factor of sometimes pulling the rug out from underneath the teleconnectors - a phenomenon that destablizes them in late Autumn too. As you/we know ...transition season makes outlooks less reliable at all scales and scopes - including ensemble derivatives - than normal stochastic. They can be signaling a +PNA on March 6th for week two, and the sun annihilates the hemisphere and obliterates the wave signs in the process and the signal damps. It's another reason why sometimes blue bomb cut off looks at this time of year end up inconsequential whirls with cap cu.. Yet at other times, they just are so anomalously cold aloft that they tunnel their way down.. Neither circumstance has a prayer of being handled beyond a D5 even. In the mean time, the Euro's D9...pleezy weezy with sugar on top make that happen. High pressure SE with 850s near +10C with well mixed environment would empty offices onto commons and parks.

The idea was bathed in incredulity in the first place.

Euro does some interesting shenanigans along the NE coast beyond D6 ...i should add... in a roundabout way, it could be a partial nod toward the Canadian - abstract sense... That is wants to kind of behave like a blocky southern route...it just screws up the mid range part of it with it's early turning bias ? maybe.. That's the thing with spring ...particularly this early part of it ...right as the r-wave structures are crumbling. You just gotta wait it out while knowing the odds are against -

Pretty typical March series from the various guidance' ... Early spring incarnate, with suggestions of wave space break downs and deeper cold plumes waning out to more vestigial layout of < 0C 850s ... some deeper pockets. But really, these three days off 00z last night are the page turning there. The entire region of the Canadian shield below ~ the 60th parallel is moderating substantially. It's hard to completely remove the loss of the -EPO as the reason why... I suspect that's related, more so than no prior to the Ides of March - but... losing the cold load Either way, the pattern looks very "bowling season" ... with perhaps just a subtle lingering attempt to recommit to early polarward storm track/cutters. That's funny - even in the absence of a pattern drive, the sore butting can't stop. It's interesting to see the GGEM and GFS switch bias camps.. The GFS is so far west now as of 06z with the D6 system, that it tries to arc a 3,000 naut mile occlusion to a trip low near the NY Bite... seems like it's trying to hard to disappoint... I'll tell ya, if the 00z and 06z versions of both the GFS and its parallel run are correct, the Plains get a season's worth of snow in two storms ... on top of a season that has already unfairly favored them and treated easterners like a red headed step child... haha. But the GGEM is really pretty close to some special, albeit ... not a very dependable guidance source to put it diplomatically. But wait! The Japanese model offers some support.

Amazing that was probably an apex year in that decade know as the great dust bowl in the Plains / there's never been drought so extreme since.

Nothing directly track-able... no. Beyond, with the EPO ridge breaking down and some arguments from the GEFs and EPS for a +PNA, that does represent a regime/pattern change... to what, as of right now, winter enthusiasts are being boned by the Euro/GGEM operational runs. The GFS, on the other hand, tries at 500 mb to stretch the flow and extend impulses more east toward the NE coast in the means, but it's not clear if that would even parlay toward winter enthusiast hopes and dreams. Regardless of any daily results... either camp could also merely be playing into their own respective biases: the former tends to curl systems west in deeper middle/extended ranges; the GFS tends toward flatter appeals... In other words, a big puddle of possibilities in a somewhat changed regime. That's about it ... for now. A couple days ago, said change appeared (also) to be accompanied by "relaxation" as an overall complexion - which would be an improvement for slower bigger events/winter enthusiasts appeals... however late in the season and/or getting it in under the wire that may be. What's interesting about that ... if you're still reading beyond this point ... is that March usually does begin to see transition to a more "nebular" look, anyway. The timing of that of course varies year to year ... some years it's straight away...other years the ides... other years the Equinox and so on... I've seen it wait until May before. So, it's hard to really separate if it's just seasonal change beginning to make an appearance in these operational runs ... or if it's coincidentally just a systemic change. Probably both and impossible to separate ... Either way, that relaxed thing is ...heh, so-so... It's just not clear whether the look is establishing continuity... It's a fluid situation

7" here in NW Middlesex country ... Just made the winter storm warning criteria ... heh, the 8th seed in the NBA... "National Blizzard Association" playoffs Now 38" on the season at mi casa

Heh... this was too well advertised and also empirically too larger in scale to fit with the 'little critter' concept - Bozart et. al. unless you just meant that for colloquialism