Typhoon Tip

Yeah I thought of that after posting that missive ... there's obviously a risky assumption there on my part; that the interior/N-Maine would necessarily have storm-to-storm, comparable storm results any given location say ...in CT. Lol ... I do recall that storm, the "Megalopolis Blizzard" I think it can be Wiki'ed ... but it does survive in the annuls as such. Anyway, in the week prior to that, there was less contention as to whether a big event would transpire, but exactly where? The Mid Atlantic was higher confidence... not us. At the time it had a slow moving version of PDI vibe about it - savvy readers may know that storm cut off at LI ( or maybe PDII..). Mind us... circa 1995 .. 1996 modeling was hugely improving over 1978's era, or 1980's, but it was nowhere near what it is today; such that having a system some 7 days out in the charts back then, most importantly across multiple guidance species ( MRF and ECMWF and CMC ), tended to draw eyes and giggly banter over shoulder of the synoptician as he clicked his/her mouse - yeah..there used to be these devices connected to PC's call mice. 1993 was discussed in early Synoptics up in the weather lab at UML ... Man, miss those wide-eyed days of pure wonder discussions - weather wasn't yet tainted by life. We extolled how there is that kind of storm that shows up across guidance types weirdly early - they behave like stones tumbling along, directing the chaos of the atmospheric fractals around them. Everything else proves faux, but the stone is still coming... It has the ability to 'withstand' permutations and still maintain a coherent signal - they seem to 'own' there physical presence in the hemispheric scaffolding of the circulation. Therefore seem to have a reliability in the guidance. 1993 March was one; 1996 Jan was also one of these. 1978 Feb is amazing for early primitive modeling. But there's something else there ...almost a feeling that it's time. ..interesting I met Harvey Leonard at the tail end of December of 1995. I friend/undergrad who had interned with him thought it would be a hoot to introduce me to him - I mean... after all, we are geeks! We covet our celebrity's a little differently than pop cultural's typical pap. I was like, sure LOL. I think it might have been like a day or two before NYE ...or perhaps it was January 1 or 2, but the slow moving cut-off that was getting fed N stream cold streak shrapnel occasionally slipping into the backside of the mid and U/A circulation, adding to its momentum ... while is slowly buzz-sawed across the 35th parallel toward the M/A ... it was in all the guidance from D 7 in. I remember debating with the man whether it would be real early in its gestation, and whether it would be able to get above NYC's latitude as an impactor. I argued in favor of both... That call scored me an internship with him ... I think. Because by the end of that discussion, in studio at WHDH Channel 7 at the time, he asked me what I was doing for internship during the immediate ensuing spring semester that year. I was like...uh, yes Sensei. It was the first year I learned about deformation axis ...and what an opportunity to apply! That deform band arced up and that was what clipped us from N CT to SE NH... Above that band, 12" totals fell to 2-4" fluff with orb sun mocking through pretty quickly. I do recall that amazingly historic storm ... not really doing much above CON NH?? As a separate note...I think there is some precedence there for big systems in SNE. I don't think Dec 1992, or Feb 1978...were as big above ...oh Fryeburg ME as they were snow clockers for elevations SE of HFD up thru the lower spine of the Monadnocks down this way. That's admittedly anecdotal... But, New England is a vast area once we start including all six states and arguable eastern NY and NJ in the mix... We have climate zones for a reason, and sometimes these big events just can't really be physically big enough for everyone.

I wonder if there is like a 'spin-up' climatology? I have noticed some years that 'rate of intensification' is better or worse ... possibly, subjectively identified by saying 'the ability to attain a convincing gain storm structure.' It does sensibly vary from year to year. This year... struggles. We have had a flurry of weaker or sputtering systems that took days to attain TD status...and were in no hurry to finally categorize until trundling at times almost invisibly across the breadth of the Basin. Laura finally did stick tail in the air and present for the suitor in the Gulf, and even demoed a borderline RI ( ..was that? ) but...that's one TC out of 12 named systems that finally muscled at all. Contrasting, a year like way back in yore, 1995 ... that one was categorizing 3's like pez dispensing - I dunno...I wonder if matters but it seems we have above normal frequency at below normal storm efficiency ... kind of like aggregated ... or total seasonal IKE might be lower than one would expect for 12 .. on the cusp of perhaps 17 named season - As an afterthought ... usually when we find a lower IKE higher storm count physicality to the TC systemic ..that means there is a Kevin-like mole working down at TPC and a probe should be launched to ferret out the monger - "Look out! Category 5 cumulus cloud"

Do you like Science Fiction .. in general ? you shouldn't feel you have to post less. You're only going to get better if ...well, it depends what the goal of the engagement is: if you care to get better, one should say. Better at this particular pass-time, you have to throw yourself at the mercy of court of public's cuttingly incisive ability to fairly judge one's content... That's called droll humor - I write that way on purpose, because I am a self-masicist and love it when beef-wit plebeians who miss or miss-interpret subtle nuances of communication parlance if they parachuted onto a telegraph tower. Yet ... know all the answers - of course! Like me... Kidding kidding... jesus.

and no one asked... but I only care about snowpack if that depth record is in reach. If it's not slated in the pattern/conducive to having a chance, I don't care if snows 20" and melts in two days ... could not care any less. Alas! ... retention has an elemental pattern luck to it - it seems... We can have above normal winters ( temperature alone ) and have them be dry, wet, or white given to our latitude - we all know this. We can have colder than normal winters that are dry ... but at this end of the temperature extremes it's harder to get moisture involved without there being substantive snow - again by virtue of our latitude. Yes ...rarely, we get stinging toothache cold for merely taking is deep breaths in between a steady diet of rain storms. But in the general scope, a colder than normal DCA winter (for ex.) can still almost not snow because colder than normal for them is of course still well above freezing ..etc. Anyway, if there's a big snow event, then a cold snap at the end... then out there in the extended, there's some sort of baroclinic bulge formulating over the Missouri Valley with lingering -10 C at 850 mb over the OV and NE ... and yet further out in time, another cold mass gathering in a lingering +PNAP essense on the charts, it gets interesting quickly. Particularly in this sort of neo-climate tendency to precipitation more proficiently relative to mechanics ...by its own virtue that warmer air is concomitantly holding more theta-e ( water ) in gaseous form, so that contributes there. As an aside, I can almost imagine study revealing that 10 events of any kind, in aggregate, precipitate more in bucket totals than 10 events in the 1950s - We do have the benefit of two factors here: Latitude is just one; but there is a specific planetary atmospheric physics assisting cold air holding in for events to work in, during winters... Actually ...it retards warm fronts in summer too. But the topographic effect of higher elevations west creates barrier jets ... but, it's like the physical tendency to do so is a vector in itself, always there, as a 'correction vector' If the models are physically proficient, then the processing of the models that employ those rules will emerge the barrier jets and the general retarding of warm fronts in warm seasons... And they do vastly better at these aspects than the old/early days of modeling, bring about lesser need to correct. But, anyway... I'm extolling .. I just mean to say that our geographical feed-back for imposing colder air and helping to retain it, is different than the virtue of latitude alone. And it matters... Because I have seen it pinging and ZR mixed many, many times at Bennington in VT down to the Capital District of eastern NYS while it is S+ in the Orh Hills... these feedbacks have a way of pulling the entire troposphere down ...and that means the growth region of the precipitating columns are still evacuating down into a critical thickness supporting snow so ... this matters... Particularly in these dubbed 'SW flow events'... In a winter that is dominated by cutters ... FIT snows more than ALB - or... it may show disproportionately so relative to climatology in comparing those two locations.

Mm... disagree a little .. and this may be subjective - granted. But, we sustained deep snow here in interior SNE for 45 some days prior to the big thaw at the end of that January. In the absolute value sense of it, that's a reasonably dated pack. Bit more conceptualizing: I recall venturing deep into the lawn pack and seeing stratification of layers at 36" inch totals when cutting into that veritable glaciar. Also in muse how that resembled avalanche theory having differential snow types and shearing plains ... That compaction between storms, like tree-rings, obviously has to have retention working with gravity. Now ...this doesn't discount the talking point, nor its significance in brow-raising factor, over 10 days of positive departures at the end of January '96 all but destroying it - total if it were not for snow piles in parking lots. There were in fact three cutters in that time frame, the last of which drove 60 F DP clear to the mid els of the White Mountains; particularly how it firehosed the pack down to just piles down here, too. It was aggravating for my own hang-up on challenging years to snow pack depth thing I get a kick out of ... I was thinking the sky was the limit that year ... but it all crumbled... well, 'melted' is apropos. Anyway, I think of bad retention - in the extreme sense - as bear ground between storms. 45 days of stilted pack with stratification records like sedimentary rock ...doesn't really earn a bad grade in all fairness. And obnoxious thaw, sure - but 'subjectively' for me that's something else. I have seen years where we got near average snow and had a pretty coherent impression in memory of not seeing a lot of persistently white ground.

Now ... just have that be snow can that be arranged?

Watch East extended

77/75 here ...

75 here while earth and stone are still wet some 3 hours after it rained ... ooph. Feels like this is the muggiest it has been this year - ...makes sense...since Laura's guts got eviscerated through the region... Warm front finally made it through and now we have tor warned supercells up in NW mass...

Yup... I was commenting on the respective biases of the operational Euro vs the operational GFS recently; although I'd characterized it more as the 2nd half of mid ranges and the extended, both. That facet about the Euro has been very coherent actually - particularly this summer for me. I don't know if this has always been the case .. but I suspect not. Didn't the Euro get an upgrade at some point over the last 18 months? And I wasn't frankly paying attention last summer. Quite consistently I found that if the Euro did not already have the eastern heights, already containing western thermal layered heat expulsion by 84 or 96 hours ... anything it attempted to do afterward typically failed to materialize. It's had a vivid Venus imagination in the late middle and extended ranges. It actually just did this over the last three days; there were a couple of model cycles that created delicious fodder for this tedious petty summer's back broken debate idiocy. I just wonder what that means for model performance in the winter - I'm thinking it's not really indicative as the 'wave frequencies' in the atmosphere are whole-scale physically different but who knows. One thing that makes the Euro heat bias intriguing to me is that while that has been going on ...the model also has at times carried too much trough depth/amplitude modulation over nearer term 'dents' in the flow that dared venture into the initialization grid up over Alberta/Manitoba ...The model lustfully takes cumulus clouds up there and turns them into hemispheric guiding pattern change full latitude eastern Canadian geopotential anomalies and of course it is therefore unclear where it gets the mechanical forcing to do so. And... rightfully so the model necessarily dampens them to something more climate friendly by D3 and 4... Probably its tendency to foment D8 bombs of ISP in the winter carried over into the summer... so at least that old habit is dependable - ha. Don't get me started on the GFS... It's consummately 6 to 12 dm too deep everywhere by the mid range at all times, all year... I've recently been comparing the daily cycles, interval to interval against the 00 to 108 Euro heights across Canada going back a ways. I don't recall not observation this: what starts out as 1 to 3 dm cooler than the Euro with all trough nodes and surrounding medium, it erodes the medium down as much as 6 dm, while as much 12 dm at individual little micro SPV by D7s... That doesn't seem like much...but, it atones for a goodly amount of the GFS' raging wind velocities and apparent jet suppression... It's been right for the wrong reason too - it's perfectly hiding its bad performance by getting to ridge suppression the wrong way - so I wonder if it's being noticed...But, here's the funny part - adding to that confusion. The velocities have been high for years really.. What rages in winters, has been vestigial still lingering in summers a little. We have had anomalously coherent R-wave structures draped across N/A much of the way, no doubt because the increased balanced deep layer tropospheric velocities as triggering wave response at Rosby scales... more so than the typical seasonal breakdown I should say. The GFS is likely to go on scoring well for the wrong reason, having too much trough depth, it scours the tops of ridges down...lowering heights, which fits the unusual early expression of R-wave - perfectly cloaked error that way.

It's precisely correct - imho that is... I've been op-ed writing theoretical missives on this site that exactly illustrated that propensity to behave that way for a couple few years. Really, there are hallmarks of this tendency going back 6 or even 8 years too - It's been a gradual onset... It's seasonally lagging winters into springs; it's triggering prolapse of winter patterns earlier than normal with cold pops and heavy frost, and packing pellet virga CAA events ...snow storms in November are almost 50% return rates. Anecdotal incoming: but that was rarely so inspiring in my youth, and I'm middle aged fwiw ... living in a new realm. Since 2000 some 2/3rds of the years have featured either, snow in the air, or snow supportive air mass transports to Chicago and Boston latitudes throughout Octobers and or Aprils and even Mays. And you are right ... the mid winters ...not always so successfully appealing.. I believe the reason has to do with gradient saturation .. I keep saying this, people need to start studying this shit ... I am not making this up!! ( not directing that urgency at you per se..). The Hadley Cell has expanded some 2 to 10 deg or latitude laterally outward, north and south of the Equator, ..strongly collocated in time with the observed global warming trends, since the late 1970s ( https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ ) ...it's all contained in there. Folks should really start reading and plumbing into that stuff because the traditional perspective of climate and seasonal modalities ... are becoming increasingly outmoded - But sorry I don't mean to preach to the quire...just sayn' As the HC expands...and here is the confusing aspect: The polar regions are warming ( particularly the north polar region(s) ) much faster than the equatorial regions in terms of scalar, measured temperature increases. But, the tropics absorb and express warming thermodynamically more readily because of diabatic physical modulation, ...which means...hypsometric expansion... for one. But, that also means that gradient increases as the balloon expands and encroaches on the mid latitudes. What happens when gradient increases in the geopotential depths? WIND Well... there has been a marked increase in ground-based velocity anomalies noted by airline traffic during this same time of expansion. It's all related... But, that is important because the x-coordinate velocities are beginning to exceed the stable Norwegian Model low scaffolding ( in the means...) so we are seeing a morphology in the distribution and typology of governing precipitation causes/ events... Having said all that ... I don't personally see how this stuff necessarily has to mean lower snow... either. Or even lacking cold for that matter. Maybe faster turn over between extremes - I could see that. I mean, yes the polar region is warming, but we're still talking -30C at 850s available to tap into in winters... I think what it is doing though is disrupting the storm orderliness - R-wave patterns are less able to remain stable...etc.. I see a lot more sheared out busted ravioli systems in the winter... Storms tend to move quicker too. But, that lack of orderliness ... that means by virtue one's winter is more open to buckshot odds... You almost want to land into a stable pattern like 1978, 1987, 1993, 1995 or 2004, ..2015 (fluke)... which almost made storms prebaked.. man those were great years .. I also agree with your ending comment - clearly as is the case with the GFS in particular, that model seems to just ignore the season altogether beyond D10 and rushes to Thanks Giving already. Pretty sure we are days away from a 300 hour Lake effect snow synoptic illustration on that thing

Try to hard? what... I asked a question - 'backing off what' ? also - that graphic is shirking comparing the model's own synoptics... too cold, period. One of those two gets corrected - either the synoptics step down...or that product warms getting closer. One or the other.... I've often noticed the Euro's graphical products consummately run cool bias relative to synoptics for mid range + ...although the 2-meter temp one seems okay - ..of course, Manfield CT is probably going to be colder than everywhere else lol

Oh of course... Sandy ...some 200 miles landfalling farther down the coast, still managed to fill subways of lower Manhattan to the point where near- drowning rats were squeezing out of the sewer grates and running up the access stairwells... And that was just spillover, indirect wave-action storm surge. That's the same as Katrina - few really discuss that Katrina didn't actually hit New Orleans... Battery walls? Joke - yeah..it's a good start. But a Cat 3 accelerator 'hooking' from SSE into the NY Bite waters would probably shut the city down and not as a euphemism either. Obviously FEMA and maybe NASA and whomever else org with wherewithal ..runs very sophisticated environmental impact models that are based upon geo-physical equations of momentum and thermodynamics, Earth, Sky and Sea. - man ...you talk about cinema! getting into the 'cutting room floor' and editing input parameters would be nothing shy of dystopian porn -

You are polite my friend But we all are the bold - ... After the fact, I was just sort of offering a plausible explanation there, at least opening some avenue to understanding why that appearance of hypocrisy exist - I mean, if appreciating nature's destructive potential is indeed built into us, than the 750,000 years of our evolution that brought that innate ability to bear ...might have a wisdom in itself - it is needed to prepare. So in a way, maybe that transcends what might actually be a shallower judgement of having a double-standard. It seems to make intuitive sense all the sudden - if you don't appreciate ( really 'respect' ) something, it will kill you - That's almost natural law. There is a difference though between respecting, appraising significance, versus the 'awe' ... I think it could be a point of criticism ( perhaps ) if that 'awe' becomes cinema. It does seem to be 'entertaining' for many to watch a dam fail... even if there is a neighborhood visibly in harm's way from the elevated vantage 2,000 feet hovering helicopter with film crew, capturing houses unseating from their foundations and crumbling into liquified brambled torrent of debris and blood. So,.. hm, I may also be overly contrite to those that gawk at the specter with seemingly blithe simultaneous awareness as to the misery that whatever they are watching is likely to afflict. interesting - You know, I remember actually having an 'enough is enough' sort of disenchanted loss of any entertainment value last Autumn when that 180 mph tempest sat immediately astride Grand Bahamas for some 70 hours like a cosmic scaled lawnmower - only the blades of grass were the archipelago down there. One particular chilling photo I recall emerging on the web in the days aftermatch ... were personal clothing hanging and pointing down wind, frozen in time trying like vestiges of a crime. Festooned amid the trees also denuded of any green - they were like ornamentally replaced said foliage with human clothing. That clothing either came from a body, or... the body's house - most likely...

Euro backing off ... backing off of what ? If it's heat ...I see D6/7/ and possible 8 with some argument as being upper 80s minimum on the 00Z operational run. 850 mb features a lower latitude Sonoran heat release taking the southern route ( Arklotex ) and then being pulled up along the cordillera of the Apps and wafting to SNE by D7 ... D8 ( I suspect ) the model is too aggressive leading that day with the trough magnificence it presses through southern/SE Canada which if true, may delay that cfront. I base this latter idea on known model bias/tendency to take any trough 'dent' it sees over Manitoba and do that over Ontario... It looks like it's getting too much curvature in the flow going from D4-6 in there N of the Lakes region... But if not, that's two days of 850 mb temperatures over 18C ... I dunno...maybe you guys are talking about the (06z run + WSI extra-double top secret ensemble math + giggidy lust for winter to kick in)/3

You two are funny Yet, you're wantonly egging-on these natural phenomenon ? You can't have the LI express then - ... shoot It's not an admonishment. We all do it, who are into the "wonder" of natural events as hobby and covet particular/personal reasons for that fascination. Age old philosophical dilemma ... we want to see it; we don't want it to happen. Just had a present leap of thought: maybe it is some instinctual thing, the 'awe' and 'wonder' are really like part of the human advantage over all other critters of this world's so far that have failed evolution's test. We perceive cause-and-effect with godly superiority over pretty much any species that even remotely comes close to our sentience - all observations included in that. How do we know - because we put meat-wagons deliberately into orbit, and bring ( usually...) those wagons and the meat they contain, safely home to talk about it. If you turn that coin over ... we have a particular draw to witnessing nature's cause-and-effect, perhaps because in some wired sense of it ...we are uniquely situated to appreciate how A forces create Zinc results. Our ingenuity does the rest... Never thought of this before but is makes sense... the awe of nature is built into us. And, it's also got a pragmatic advantage that if and when we observe and appreciated the awe affect, we expand our understanding of the effects of nature (preparatory). There's something to this... that maybe the 'appraisal' circuitry is really what separates us uniquely from othe animals... Not so much 'tools,' 'fire', and 'language' or 'religion'. And, all species have failed evolution by the way; it's been a matter of when and how - ...different discussion.

You know ...it's funny..the morning WPC current surface ob shows that front still has not moved more than ~ 50 miles from the same sun-up position and axis of orientation, since yesterday at dawn. We were right to assess the boundary as having difficulty intruding into SNE during yesterday. I thought the warm front might get to HFD and I don't think that actually verified - though close? In any case, what were the bulk shear values - I didn't look...bummer. But it is truly astounding just how gradiented rich the region was between BOS-LGA ( rough coordinates..) during the day yesterday ( thermodynamically...). ... then, to run a mid level jet perturbation over that gradient meant hell to pay... Weatherwiz I think should get some foresight credit for the clearing offering some diabatic assist to instability on the polarward side of the NW-SE orient frontal boundary. I think he mentioned that, but... I'm not sure which side of the boundary those supercells were riding... interesting. The thing is, the boundary was initially SW of the axis of SC tracks, and it was repositioned somewhere in CT during the late morning early afternoon... when the clearing took place - not sure which happened first. Was the warm sector clearing? Or was the ceiling saturation drying from the sun and then the sun warmed and mixed out the shallow air mass allowing the warm front to reposition - ... geeks paradise -

Yeah I was going to suggest a seiche wave effect too.

reminds me of what happened farther east last week -

There's no question the warm boundary is currently collocated with the 500 mb streamlines ... It makes sense that it may have unfolded to about HFD over to SW RI... It might have had a chance to get to the Pike but we also have cool air banked in; viscosity/local topographical effects that are impeding. Mentioned earlier... we deal with limiting factors endemic to this region... in that the higher els of the Berks tends to pool dense air and protect it once said pool has filled in ... I wouldn't even be surprised if there's some SW push as this air up here is getting cooler with this rain too -

Nah...that doesn't mean the warm front is through there... Side's WPC doesn't agree -

yeah...and in the defense of the world that exists outside my skull I do tend to come off heavy handed with principles of Met and that probably rubs folks the wrong way ... heh, gee ..ya think ? anyway if the sun comes out and can diabatically heat; that can aid in warm frontal leaps ... right on! However, part of that successful leaping means the DPs actually have to come with it. Without them, it's really just a lucky sunny interval in an otherwise cold butt plugged typical New England stew - which frankly, I'm inclined to think that's how this results... Also in that as we type, that line is plugging SE and will prooobaby ( I'm guessing ) denature the atmosphere to a swath of low clouds afterward. I can't wait until tomorrow... The NAM has 30 to 40% ceiling level RH over the region at 8am ...with offshore flow at 850s supporting about 83 F ... totally different day

Not sure that matters... Lot of posting about the sun. Okay, but it's not likely to be enough. This cool air mass is a thick anomaly... it needs two, June 21 sun disks in the sky to overcome lol

The present linear complex pressing quickly SE through upstate NY should put the k-bosh on this for good... It's got some pricey DBZ returns along the axis but nothing triggering warnings ... It clearly also is terminating into an overrunning synoptic plug with crumbled elevated convection kernels to offer pulses of heavier rain in side a light to moderate for a couple of hours. But I'm not even sure the western end of the line outside that shield is really in a warm sector... Anyway, it should cool the BL further and that's the ball-game

lol, you may be okay ...I added a sentence to that -