Typhoon Tip

Lol - don't forget the other reason, it's the GGEM

Well than that's what we're collectively targeting ... great. Consensus leader board -

Oh that's still in the cards for March Prolly be an east-baster just for the impudent implicit idea that -NAO means good for us.. but -NAO of some kind that doesn't snow but f-up the entire April-May part of MLB is a slam dunk - But beyond sarcasm and grousing, there are larger conceptual reasons to look for that. Hopefully they fail

I mean we'll find most years post ... ~ Feb 10.. the slope of season recovery starts - 2015 is about the greatest polar exception as is physically plausible, and it happened.. but by and large, Feb 10+ is about big bombs with intervening sun eating snow banks back... OR, no bombs, and the sun eating snow banks back. Either way, the pack retention curve isn't enthusiast's friend. The solar nadir ends on the 10th and streets start steaming when the snow ends prior to noon and the sun comes out. I always thought of Feb as kind of the antithesis of Augie ... same deal though. You can be in the thick of the seasonal weeds, but there are subtleties in either that betray the faltering ... It matters because June 15 won't be very different than August 15.. .but August 15 can be very different than Sept 21...particularly if we're frosting early. Feb can be powder 'cane on the 20th but be weird 80 F on March 15 like three weeks later. You're not going to get that between Dec 15 and Feb 15 Oh wait ... not supposed to anyway -

I mean look at this damming nose in the GEPs !

shit is this still like 5th period -

That's one of the better ice-storm sigs I've seen on a guidance in a long while. Even for the Euro...look at 72 hours and it has a meso low over the Cape that's buckin' for the same strength as the main circulation that is moving S of NYC ? I've never heard of a warm solution below 4K with synoptic features like that. It'll come down to dp insert and the actually thermal profile of the drain column...which if it is 33 ...it's 33... but if it's 28...it's going to be 28 is all - sorry. Unless this run is wrong with those features/evolution between 48-90 hours..

Easy to visualize a 60 hour CF type gradient cutting from maybe BED or just west of there, to NW RI ... probably even for higher res models, that's -2 correction west of that line in that interior heat sink where NNE flow gets buried ... That kind of sets up the next slug to be a problem. I think it was Will and I mentioning yesterday that this would be a now-cast nightmare for that sort of shit.

I lived in Rockport in '84/'85 ... long enough to sample the climate cuisine ... I can tell you, icing there is difficult -

Funning or not... actually when the climate is fluxing those rules fly out the door. There's dubious linear dependency at best with climate usage like that. Sides, models don't do climate in their runs -

this is angle of ascent -related duration in this run. The first wave is more than less melding into the 2nd one, to just make it a protract deal ..but because the two are like 1,200 naut miles of total ENE-WSW flow space the whole package takes 30 hours to get thru. that's an awful long time to 29.6 F moderate super cooled mist in rain drops... I can already hear the timber mortars and the sounds of distant chainsaws.

ah now that i've looked at the Euro that's big ice signal for places like Orange to Ayer to ORH triangulum with sleet probably 1.5" deep in Manchester NH

I'll tell ya ...imho what the Euro's doing here is attempting to coalesce this around more of a singular slug of S/W mechanics/open wave ... leading eventually to bomb upon exit. The problem is ..it doesn't have quite enough cold/BL forcing to make sure it's a NJ to ACK model track ... so it ends up at 72 hours with that odd looking wipe open central barograhic layout. I mean who knows if all that's right but the Euro inside of D4 is tough to knock -

Bingo! Nothing motivates would-be noblemen and state's people like the moods of their constituency - the only other way around that in a democratic voter-society is cheating. Thank god there's no ... Wait a sec - Humor aside, if the ballast of lever pullers abandon the profligate presumption of entitlement to natural resources... finally connecting with the consequence-causality circuitry [ add finite science here .. ], the complexion of the office seeker is forced to change. But note I said 'complexion.' Execution in keeping with those promises that answer to ethos is entirely up to institutions put in place over the generations, charged with the responsibility to ensure those elected officials are 'owning up' ... It's a good thing we haven't seen any attempt at the dissolution of those agencies and institution, then, right ? Wait a sec - The total model of corruption could not be more patently clearly afoot in IR -based societies,. And, I still posit that the main reason why such brazen antics go down, and there is only passive moral recovery or even much vitriol at all, is because of post-Industrial Revolution giving rise to conveniences that rescue the existential state of society at all levels, from having to eat the shit of their own mistakes. But, the environment in that metaphor, quite succinctly becomes the dumping ground. In a baser 101 philosophical perspective: nature is about balancing positive and negatives... That's it. All of reality exist because at some quantum Plank scale...there is an imbalance that is attempting to get to neutral. That tug of war integrates to a Universe of time...space... energy and your life! And everything and anything that can be perceived happens because of that scaffold. So, it is quite logical to assume that 5 billion Industrial breast feeders are getting fat, something else has to be getting skinny. Metaphors are fun... Simple terms, if we lived in a reality where mistakes resulted in pain? Oh f yeah, people would sit up and take notice ...immediately. But the IR wipes humanity ass, by gobbling up even more resources to "save" them from having to conserve .. protecting all from seeing the consequences. Thus, the ease at convenience to deny, becomes self-reinforcing: 'I denied it last week, I got a raise, therefore, denial is right.' And that becomes a runaway selfish culture among many other abhorrent characters.

heh..well, thx -hopefully we know that's tongue-in-cheek commiseration .. . tainted humor ftl -

You know ..it's interesting, because this tendency to correct NW turning the page from mid range into short terms seems to be failing on this cycle ...which could arguably have zygote heredity in those 18z peripheral model types from late yesterday. We'll see... We're almost at a proper 'put up or shut up' scorched Earth mode tho - one of these suckers needs to work out... This is just taking mid-range verification to the wood shed this year. wow.

Yeah..I mentioned this above wrt to the whimsy ICON ... but I suspect there is an emergent problem with the models in their handling such extraordinarily powerful mid level jet mechanics racing in pithy mass from the TV to SE of the Cape and NS ..That region is hosting wide, long 120+ to 145 kt wind max and the places the entire region from WV to EEN, NH in a precarious kind of frontogenic look for one...but it seems there is a giant ..though capped potential for Q-G forcing ..which in lay terms translates to upper vertical motion. It's almost like there is a tendency for leak and when that does the lift goes nuts ( metaphor ) Some of that may be collocated with a surface reflection/low and that might cause a faux depth ... The ICON has a 983 mb low over PVD out of no-where, when the previous panel just 6 hours earlier was much shallower in an interverted... Now the GFS. The Euro is going to be fascinating I feel because this is a unique challenge for it's smoothing algorithms, where it cuts down on noise effecting outcomes and so forth. YOu know plus as Scott was saying ... and we discussed yesterday, this is a now-cast nightmare because while all that is taking place above 3K elevation... this region down here has it's own cold loading headaches and uncertainties to contend with

There's evidence in that 12Z ICON solution of hydrostatic forcing - i.e., 'mid level magic. Helluva burst of snow for N-central Mass/ southern VT/NH ..western zones though brief 78-84 hrs, but deep-ish sfc pressure carving through the PVD corridor while that happens, in total these are adjustments/new comparing prior runs. I'm noticing that the last three cycles of the NAM and this model all ticked SE by small measures. These guidance types are of course low in confidence at this range, however, -

Not to jolt hopes with insinuation ... but, usually the NAM is too far NW - telling? ...haha, considering the NAM's the story teller, notwithstanding -

Man that 06z GFS ( yes yes ...you've discussed it already - eat me! ) was loaded up with winter storm chances.. It just gets difficult to visualize any of that actually succeeding in taking place .. .what with this Stockholm Syndrome of failure and defeatism; yeah, we just get so use to that, you grow accustomed to it and acceptance creeps in. We can't help it. It's human. This winter has had a "spooky action at a distance" quality to it, no question...as though something metaphysical were guiding things to perfect elegance in 'how' it fails too - like rubbing it in. It's like you smirk to your self at model release, ' how is the next run going to seemingly deliberately erode this look ' Kidding, but this has been the worst winter I can ever recall for verification scoring in the D6-9 range. Now ...obviously and normally, one would not exactly expect banners in meritorious over modeling performance in that range, but this year really has been particularly egregious. Performing - and this is the homage to that hokey stuff abv - specifically poorly wrt to anything cryo in nature. If the words frozen or freezing are any part of the potentials envelope, said envelope is nearly emptied of it's content at some temporal switch ...usually about D4 ..5... with shimmering alacrity - poof. They should just run the models to D4.5 ..and then the next chart just reads, whatever would have illustrated here, it will be better than what you are going to get. Here's the thing... I'm noticing the teleconnectors have been bad for 45 straight days...on average. There may have been frets and starts in there where things verified, but the vaster percetage of times...these mass fields have been better examples of what NOT to do if we want a winter. So, maybe there's problem in the operational guidance to 'overtly winterize' the looks, so to speak...and it's in fact our focus that is distracting us from the bigger picture, said focus being on the operational runs and drooling over ever opportunity for modeling cinema that emerges down the pike. The operational runs are trying to make it Feb 1 ( say ), but then this other stuff that the cackling rabble and "lucid" rubes want to make fun, like Noah's water as the global ship is sinking ..blah blah, it continues along it's way to usurp it's dominating influence one those latter ranges as they become more coherent in time... Simply put, there are reasons for these system correcting NW that is sort of more in place (I'm thinking..) than even I have been seriously considering enough. They are two fold related to just pattern orientation ( teleconnectors ), and these other synergistic factors combined. Therefore, the jailer's jokes in that Stockholm prison are becoming more soothing. Anyone else ready for baseball, bike rides, the beach and babes ? This op ed oughta get us a historic blizzard cooked up! haha Usually how it works.

NAM appears colder

Yeah ...this seasonal trend/persistent modeling correction behavior is really something... One aspect I'm noticing is that the ridge in the west ... or what ridging is west, is really more situated partially lapsed over the west coast/ E Pac in the means. That's too far west. Almost like a west-based +PNA, so the PNAP pattern over the U.S. is skewed out of sync just enough. The natural R wave length argument is actually west... so these east mid range modeling tendencies may be what's really wrong all along. If that's the case ..this is probably a 40 F winter. I've postulated that with fast flow, that does allow for some 'stretching' in the west-to-east coordinate, and that may be what the models are doing in the mid/extended range, but not sure. I'm not sure why it's right around 60 to 84 hours out ( or 96..etc), right abouts in there we get these corrections back NW. Thing is... one storm did to this to us in the relaxed period that lasted some 10 days earlier this month too - .

You just doomed us 'till June with your impudence -

I funny ... speak of the devil man. I wrote a bit about that in the other thread re Feb in general...how we've had such difficulty with cold profiling passing over the boundary from mid range into outer short ranges.. . It's f'n bald faced doing it right in front of our eyes again. We're probably going to be 60 F to MHT, NH before this f're finishes in our bums. kidding of course - but there essence of kicking back NW is clearly real. But in a season of being dealt reversals... it would almost be fitting if the seasonal trend was accounted for, THEN have it actually be colder - anything to ruin the fun ahead of time. Hahaha

This may turn into a now cast nightmare ... That Thursday evening tries to peel away the first wave and associated plausible meso cellular circulation and that might draw a tuck circulation down, setting up icing for the next - and that's the sort of discrete scenario that is under 3K feet and probably not well modeled by any guidance at this range frankly - I mean, this could also just be like four waves across 2-days of light to moderate snow/mix ice and/or cold rain ... dart board transition axis anyway. Good luck nailing down your zones -