Typhoon Tip

Thank you

It’s funny too cuz I wrote this morning about not liking the snow chances because the system’s open and progressive during off climo times and what immediately happens? The next run slows down just enough. wtf

Euro's D9 was mid 70s last night, too... It does this as part of the seasonal growing pains in the runs, every year guys. You gotta let this marinade while you deny summer's coming - snark deserved! Every year we do this, with a D8 70 to 80 ... and they gradually increase in frequency...until they finally get into the D4. It's different every year as to when the successful relay into a near term happens - yeah, some years earlier...some later. It's almost like timing the Coronavirus termination: at current statistical behavior, we should be there around the end of May ( before the Autumn apocalypse really ramps it up...). Only here, we time it for maybe May 3rd ..?

Seasonal transition is still underway .. despite the apparent ebullient want for whatever that is 120 hours. Earlier this week I discussed the 850 mb thermal layout clearly modulating across the hemisphere - last night operational Euro is pretty emphatic about that. As for early next week...yeah, it's not impossible. It's not a refutation on above - it's more like typical marginal pocket of butt bang typical New England enabling BS for people that can't stand summer and can't let go of winter, allowing it to con them, and will be disappointed like it always does. It's like a last hurrah reach back of cold air (suckers!) before it gets kicked out... Even looks that way on the chart in a kind of comical homage. Kidding, but it's also possible that flattens/dims in amplitude, just like what Friday's did in this run up. This skirting wave tomorrow had much more panache in particular, the GFS from about 5 days back. It's even questionable to me at this point if we even wet the Earth much in southern NH given trends ... But given to the seasonality and modulation from daily solar abuse pummeling the mid latitudes in this ( eh hm..) mid August sun intensity, that deal next week may also deamplify. No loss to me ...but I would be personally surprised if it snows lower that 2,500 ~ feet anywhere despite UK looks... Now, I would be more inclined to say we overcome if the system were not moving so fast. We've just been a plagued with fast translation speeds since ... mid December really. It's not just the winds around the wave features in the atmosphere, with those Neptunian jet speeds of historic rage, either. It's the waves themselves. Even during this recent -EPO, and some of these pulsed -NAO's we've dealt with over the last 20 days, the individual waves in the atmosphere can't situate... Progressive long waves, foisting their internal short waves through the flow. We're just not doing et al, as fast as a month ago...and priors, but we are still seeing that happen. And we kind of want dynamic/spring type blue-bomb amplitude as a slowing/coring event? Not so much a stretching correction - going the wrong the way synoptically under an August insolation is asking a lot. Anyway, the atmosphere is marginal typical spring style heading into the 96-120 range, but the tendency above will also 'stretch' that feature and speed it up most like - besides, it is modeled to kite right along anyway.

The tenor in here smacks as predisposed over the last couple .. few pages. For whatever reason that bias aside, I stick by my guns that there's reasons for more optimism. I posted about this in brief two or three pages/days ago. Granted, we haven't had/seen much evidence in the ground-truth sensible weather, to date, but for spring/warm enthusiasts there are improving synoptic signals and aspects in the guidance wash. For one, the 850 mb thermal layout clearly does some sort of continental scope and scale modification event that's been in the models for days. No one's said that... "Rather" the grouse tenor switches from miserable winter of failure .. right into a din of no-reason to enjoy the weather misery coming. The vast region of the Canadian shield, above 40 N and beneath ~ the 60th parallel significantly rises. It goes from ~ -10C to -20C (persistently reloading into those regions), to more in the 0C to -7 range. That's not probably climate unfriendly and is in fact more seasonal for those regions, and given that is our cold source in a pattern than is less steeply loading ( loss of antecedent -EPO), then one needs to include other modulating off-sets typical of spring, and "should" be able to see reasons for less glum. Without that higher latitude, -EPO direct cold loading pattern into the hemisphere, we're talkng mid August sun radiance by the end of this week, bathing mid latitudes. That's powdered bust-MOS-just-add-so-much-as-a-wan-sky. You have to keep that in mind as a perpetual offset to any afternoon that offers a modicum of reason for more insolation. An error that is enhanced by the cold-captive audience's previous, seemingly unending gloomy suffering .. I get it. We are just not able to lens the pattern through a different look. But the objective look and the subjective look seem to be in a strained marriage right now - lol. This recent Euro's 00z depiction for Friday is comically different than the other guidance. Speaking to that ... I mean, it's RH fields show by 3pm on Friday it's clear(ing) across the region, with 850 mb temperatures climbing to +5 to +2 SW to NE, with an ongoing off-shore light component flow, with RH plummetting... It could be 60 under a warm sun at that hour... Yet, look at the GFS! holy shit... wow. That's what's gonna happen, right? Ha, could not be any more nape-angry butting heads to the Euro ... it's consistent too. I know based on the above sentiment that it is easier to just assume the GFS is suddenly the good-to guy model of all time aplomb accuracy and glory ...but, the Euro is still inside of D5 with that different universal look. It's an interesting model battle. But in fact, the Euro looks more "climate aware" for Thursday thru Saturday over all...so, it's an interesting model battle. One has winter persistence look happening under an overal warming 850 mb tapestry... while the other (Euro) looks climate friendly and is a hugely different sensible appeal. Obviously I'm inclined to go with the Euro judging by the tenor of this, but I'll nod in favor of persistence because ...sometimes you just end up in f'ed patterns too. In either case though, the 850 mb total thermal layout is much, much different, which appears - to me - to be rooted in a loss of -EPO together with a bono fide seasonal flip in that regard, and it's possible the GFS type solutions are too strong anyway. As an afterthought, when we lose the 850 mb cold source, we also theoretically relax the ambient baroclinic instability ... --> weaker/pallid systems. I guess we shouldn't consider that as room for optimism, either ?

This model ... oy... Runs a patently warm bias all winter long than hits the cold profile throttle nearing May - ... Right when the GFS starts really heating up the extended, too. pullin' 564 dm thickness to Boston for several days on end after D7 would support mid 70s if not 80 in good mixing, wind and sun ...right when the GGEM finally commits to winter -

This NAM synopsis for the the day after tomorrow really shows a jolt back toward seasonality - and then some. Could be 31 to 33 in blue-dawn snows tomorrow in the interior ... up and down peoples' neighborhoods, then 63 to 66 over those same driveways circa 4pm the following day... I wonder if we can lay down 6" and lose 6" inside of 30 hours - interesting...

I was living in Waltham at the time. It was a Saturday? if memory serves... Nice coastal with CCB, and I remember peering out from the 3rd floor window of my apartment as sheets of white rain with the occasional noodle fatty were whipping by in sheets. It looked like 85 to 90% rain, but that 10/15 percent's plenty to detect "floaty rain drops" And it was like 39 F there in that neighborhood above Moody Street where I was living. I remember geek-studying the wind-strewing sky for the tell-tail sign of the freezing level just off the deck and could clearly see the snow undulate form just failing to kiss the ground at that location. Farther west in the interior had flipped to soaked cotton-balls... I think it was 101 over July Fourth weekend that year too... man. But, that was 1 month prior to the summer Solstice, without an occurrence in the previous 5 year climate uptake resembling significant volcanism and if anything, we were in solar max then ( check that...). Pretty impressive...

"Close" ...heh...looks like it goes right over top - It's likely over amped in the total deep layer ejection out of the west, which is typical D5/6 shenanigans for that model... Or not, but if comes in flatter and/or up the ST L seaway it's not like there's no precedence since October for that to happen. Ha. But, seriously, mentioned last night and still it looks to be the case that the tele's are going neutral-ish and that sort of opens up the plausibility for relaxed thicknesses abused by hot season sun being deep in April. So, we rain and misery that way, but it won't be cold - otherwise, a sunny day probably tickles 70 from D6.5 onward. Even the EPS is sans the blues out there. Gotta change this bitch at some point... July is still coming. And without a comet impact, super volcano or Hexagonal Trump-Putin-China nuclear winter ... there's nothing to assume this isn't just an under-the-radar crazy CC offset event that no one's really paying attention to. Unrelenting look missed in January plagues mid spring on a hot world ? almost comical

I suspect we bottom out this pattern over these next 60 hours ... Euro depth D5.5 looks typically over plumbed passing thru NE. Seasonal shift arrives ~ D6 onwards. Tele’s collapse toward null spacing and probably everywhere beneath 45N across the CONUS sans chillier departures in lieu milder days with noticeable consistency a.k.a. bona fide spring Some form of departure in the other direction within 30 days not without precedence

Looks like we need to slog through maybe the next 7 but probably more like 10 days before we can finally put an end to this consummate 'fake' snow chance pattern that only really succeeds in shitting on any warm loving spring exuberance ... Probably has a weird way of happening on top of the wave out of the over sold zombie apocalypse - which is the only reason why this April is any different than any since the Earth made the mistake of creating New England's geography and climate -

It's also beyond frustrating for warm weather/seasonal winter can go f-urself enthusiasts to the point of comedy watching these models' extended fields seemingly go out of their way to deconstruct said change in lieu of an apparent agenda to keep January eternally during CC ... jesus

Plus ... the Euro has done this for 5 f'n straight years when going from D4 --> 6's ... it takes anything it sees over Colorado and turns it into a mid tropospheric juggernaut ...spontaneously creating the kinematics to do so. Same thing here...That thing is barely denting the geostrophic medium at D4 and then it's Dec 2005'ing from seemingly no where S of LI two days later... But, ...eventually it'll wrong its way right at least once -

If this sets up ... then ding dong the wicked witch is dead -

Last official snow of the season mid week? Certainly not impossible I that flat suppressed look

This is probably the most deep tropospheric momentum event that I’ve seen around here in many years actually… We’ve always had them once in a while pop up in guidance but 55 mph gusts are like the 1 SD gusts average departure here ... which is pretty f spectacular.

Cloud tags ‘ill be a riot moving at hurricane sky-scape speeds.

Meh... I like the Euro for Sunday ... day has ginormous diurnal potential, with surface -ridging induced calm and likely deep DP decoupled air, the morning is very chilly, but the "dry warm frontal passage" appeal is very evident. 700 mb RH is low all day, so clouds are sparse, and the wind is W, while the 850 mb temperatures rise from -4 C (~) to + 5 C (~) over CT by 00z Monday. I could see that day surging from 25F to 64F in the CT river valley and it'd be warmer than that if the mixing gets better. It's also trending in the run...which the the last three cycles have been showing more SE ridge influencing the general circulation up-down the eastern seaboard, gradually more so... So, we may not be done cooking up a warmer regime for Sunday and Monday. And, the cold thickness layout others are gushing over ... that's been (typical for model behavior in April) modulating a tick or two less amped per run. I could see this breaking better than the mids/ext. complexions ... Particularly in the GFS - that model seems to have 0 ability to seasonally modulate the hemisphere during the huge accelerations of spring. It does this every year ... Take any initialization on April 7, and it'll absorb the present back into a January look by the time it gets to D10, instead... It's like running the physics organically proves that it is missing seasonal variance - interesting... Anyway, it's going to be obnoxious for warm weather enthusiasts... but there are reasons to recoup a few hours here and there which can help out.

That's a pretty potent wind signal in the Thursday overnight into Fri morning ...

lol echoing my frustration

heh...I typed freeport but i actually had bangor-ish in mind... but yeah it's all probably a tick or two lat/lon too soon by those other guys. who knows.

GGEM doubled down on the Freeport Maine blizzard of April 2020

I'm willing to argue that these phases are concomitantly being suppressed this last winter by the HC expansion that is getting more pervasive with every passing season of accelerating climate change. As the seasonal height compression is relaxing, it's merely exposing opportunity for these flow structures to emerge. I actually personally anticipated this a month ago and posted that we'd head into a blocky spring - It's causing unusually fast, balanced tropospheric mid and upper level winds and propagating wave space speeds there in, and it's not allowing those meridional resonances to get feed-back established such flow structures such that they can persist for any length of time - they just get blasted and ablated away. The MJO at times this recent winter was incoherent, yet the pattern et al resembled a historically powerful phase 5 MJO much of the time for a reason ...separate from the MJO ( as logic therein dictates...); it's most like the cold normal hemisphere of winter in excessive compression against the expansion of the HC, which is garnering lots of scientific attention and is papered at this point.

34" total here... pretty sure that's 3/5ths of normal (~)... That's going by snow alone

The operational versions of every model are holding out on cold to the bitter end. The GFS is particularly atrociously either negligent of the seasonal forcing of oh ... a trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion-trillion ton perpetual fusion bomb eye-balling the hemisphere, or, it's going to succeed in a once in a 500 year cold pattern on top of a back-ground uncompensated GW signal... Hmm, which way should we go - I'm inclined to think that the it's just negligently constructed around solar fluxing. It does this at this time of year, every f year... It starts out D2 through 5 with some semblance of in situ pattern awareness ( though mishandles it for other reasons..), then, slides right back into January. Go back the last 100 cycles of this model and look at any D10 ... it's more like a mild pattern in January at best, otherwise, just absurd. The GGEM and Euro, however, are also cold relative to the CPC teleconnectors, too. That said, obviously these models don't give a ratz azz what the GEFs curves do; they are not part of the GFS' family genetics. I don't know what the Euro or GGEM fields look like based upon their own ensembles ... but the EPS general appeals tend to rarely stray very far from the operational at the scales of pattern management, so.. they probably kill summer and never snow too I think the operational GFS is useless most late Marches into first halves of Aprils, more so than the usual head-scratching as to why that useless p.o.s. shit model is given its portion of carbon footprint to run at any time of the year beyond D4. Going back several years, I distinctly recall it over and over and over, flooding lower Canada with mid January thickness in it's D7 to 12 ranges as a plaguing model bias during most springs.