Typhoon Tip

gotcha... Yeah, I kinda come from that ilk of perspective of matters - particularly as the month ages... I'm flexy in the first 10 days ... Patience runs out pretty quick by the ides. I admit to some hypocrisy though, until mid April. If it's a KU bomb that's in play, okay... hey, I'm all in.. .But, in t-minus 2 days and counting, I officially enter the time of year I loathe. Spring is a time when I want the warmth, humidity and towering thunderclouds that's 40 years if not 40 days away and it's just a big huge bore! .. a grind more years than I care to admit suffering, that can be so unrelenting, unending, without remorse. Kinda like this winter was bad come to think of it... ha! The American -based teleconnectors are sloped warm after D10 so... maybe we won't have to wait until the end of May this time.

I don't speak for the combined ambit of total technology together with the consortium of finest minds in the arts and crafts of Meteorological deterministic forecasting but from where I'm sitting ... you're not likely mixing from that in the NH region. You may miss... but mixing would be difficult in this particular pattern make-up.

meh,.. looks like a reversion back to 12z yesterday to me ... with some modest alterations here and there. yesterday it had already committed to more of a coastal, just had it south by a tad. this run still misses but looks okay for now. or does it miss? granularity of the free products leaves some to be desired.

Seems there's an undeniable weakening in the overall panache of this, as well as S trend. Together those facets sort of blend the original Euro flat looks a bit ... regardless of whatever the Euro has come around to over the last 30 hours of runs... it seems those original flat scenarios were not completely without merit - if perhaps just too extreme. Anyway, I'm at 27" for the season at mi casa. Maybe adding a little

Perhaps ... but, as of last check with NCEP... there's only recently ( ... like, this month) El Nino - Prior to, there never has been ... I mentioned this several weeks ago, that it was delayed? Over these recent several months, at no time had it been abundantly clear... well, actually even suggested really, that the SST/ENSO had sufficiently coupled with the atmospheric circulation medium over the Pacific ... to assume any forcing was/were taking place. That all = El Nada ...haha. As of their most recent publication on Feb 19 they are now saying that the pattern of convection and wind anomalies are more consistent, so that coupling may have finally taken place. The idea that the GEFs ensembles lose it though...getting deeper in to March? I'm not sure either a, if that's rushing a change that is probably going to be slow to evolve seeing as it is now more anchored in that coupled state... or b, normal climo on "weak" warm ENSOs and spring may show that these things terminate quickly in March ... I dunno the latter though.

Well... finally wended our way into a pattern that is more conducive for winter enthusiasts ... Yet, the overnight runs were fantastic art in avoiding realization - really was staggeringly inconsequential relative to all guiding kinematics. You're looking at these guidance' ...clicking through their intervals, watching a most clever, insidious destructive interference at all scales .. as though an actual agenda were at work to keep the outcome as uninspired as is mathematically allowable in a realm of overwhelmingly powerful guiding parametrics. The models would have us believe that a lit match cannot ignite gasoline vapors while mixing said vapors with pure oxygen.. Those are long storied words for 'wasting potential' The overnight runs were more than a mere allegory in how to not do anything, while at the same time, having everything available. It is the best pattern we've had all winter here nearing the end. If missing out comes down to nuance then what can we say ... tragedies happen too. The poetic savior hero thing is a human conception - it's possible to just straight up get F in the ass until your dead. Ever hear the joke "Death by Kowabunga" ? well... things didn't end too well for those sailors. Tongue in cheek aside... it's not all mysterious (for me anyway) why these models are failing to organize more meaningful cinema ... I still see that some gradient is plaguing the complexion of the super-synoptic scale... it's like trying to run a -EPO through a pattern that's got too many isohypsis (um .. .height lines; when you see a lot of them, you have a lot of wind, and probably too much so) between N of JB and the Gulf of Mexico. You end up with speed anomaly while trying to have the undulatory base... Kind of weird, and I'm wondering if one of these two looks has to cave the other way in reality. Interesting.

It's true... Not sure about the EPS derivatives but the GEFs based teleconnectors have never liked this interval as a protracted affair. I mean one can see it plain as day with the WPO positive the whole way, ...that means the Pacific is unstable for a -EPO ... eventually, the west will [quite likely] force its way around the hemisphere and usurp that NE Pacific cold pattern... Plus we have the PNA resisting rise during - overall not a good look for longevity. This doesn't speak to backdoor season and/or any in the myriad of idiosyncrasies and charm that comes with New England springs... I mean, we could sneak a "bowling ball" in and still justify it as a warm pattern ...etc.. It's just that the canvas may flip more spring like after this sort of "last hurrah" Heh... believe it or not, snow is a part of spring climate N of NYC too

Right ...so unique that it happened in October of 2011 --> 2012

yep... I understand why he said that though - my fault... I made it sound a little like "they have to phase to be west" you can phase and now phase, west, east, north or south... In this case... as in, the one for this weekend, we were seeing (previously) a bodily displacement south with that vortex up there ... that's a different beast than those earlier lakes cutters. Just so happens that it might have resulted in the same track.

nah... speaking to the Euro's D8/9/10 ... this weekend I suspect we're in the early stages of coalescing upon a narrow corridor coastal that may or may not clip the area ... obviously a fluid solution, hence the 'early' description. I've let the ship sail on the Lakes early polarward motion because unless the SPV captures that... it's not going to move at it - heh

The more I look at this/that ... the better the terminology comes to mind to describe ... The N/stream, comprised of the SPV fragment, can't get down in latitude fast enough to catch up with and capture the southern stream wave - the southern stream wave is caught up in a velocity rich flow. I.e., too fast. Metaphor: can't get captured and fall into orbit because it is moving along at escape velocity ... heh, I like that. Fitting ... should our last hurrah fail because of this, as I've been bitching about too much gradient and wind speed all winter -

Those last three days of this Euro oper. run look like the model's got some wave/spacing contention issues though -

if ur talking about the Euro ..it pretty much k'ode that on the 00z run

Not a bad thing to keep trends in mind. We've been getting the same results, over and over and over again ... ad nauseam. It is of course harder to visualize any solution like that GGEM, let alone ... one that is not the same as that 'over and over and over again' Unfortunately, nature vs human perception of nature ...? They often part company. The trick is, knowing when trend is likely to continue vs when it may be time to let it go... I cannot say personally this is one of those latter times, but, this pattern that is taking hold ( bigger idealized EPO block and so forth...) is uncharted waters, so... Logic dictates the trend is worth evaluating.

The difference here is/was as hinted before and this run really shows it ... The SPV/fragmentation and N/Stream is backing down on the amount of phasing... I'm glad this run came out this way to help in elucidating that significance; no sooner, and we have a less capture and foisting/wild deepening of a Great Lakes cyclone. That said, it's far from a stable outlook ... particularly at this range duh. But that's a very sensitive flow structure with that much awesome gyre situated precariously by over southern Canada, with it's circumvallate of very high velocity mid level flow. if that feature stays situated there and waits to come through more vestigially like these recent trends... yeah, there could certainly be a quick mover system - talking about the Mar 1-3rd event. The latter one has the benefit ( perhaps ...) of the flow relaxing some.

Could be the NAM being the NAM... Also, the end frames one can almost visualize that as blossoming into some. Heh, 'nother chapter in "The great claw and scrape by winter"

Also, what's interesting about the Mar 1-3rd ... regardless of any one particular model... the blend of all available guidance that I've seen really hones in on the pallid western ridge at mid latitudes. As that has collapsed back into the longer seasonal trend of being weak, the coherence for a Lakes cyclone has diminished. If there could be just a little more ridging below the -EPO height island ...that might induce more a subsume of the N/stream again. Anyway, for those looking to hold on to winter appeals at any turn, beginning with lessen the unmitigated injustice to the soul of a west turning low and liquid mist at 40 F ... it's probably a good thing that the PNA part of that may go on to be flat like presently modeled. Crucially, the N/stream stretches as a result ... and lays out along southern Canada, ... Otherwise, Mar 1-3 probably does curled W. early. The reason is because L/W /R layout is wrong with the trough too far west in those previous blends. I'm almost wondering if the whole thing is in the process of a whole scale change ... like, what if the western ridge re-materializes more over the Rockies this week, and suddenly, we're getting a different deal out of it back east. In either case, these Euro run to run changes are hugely demonstrative and yeah...it's not < 5 day wheel-house stuff ...still, those changes spanning those three runs are impressive.

Funny ... like letting the February thread scroll ... days prior to the end of the month, when there is still a system IN February to monitor... will bring on something faster... Anyway, I'm impressed at these huge continuity changes spanning the last three consecutive Euro operational runs re the March 1-3rd period of time. Three runs ago, it carried a deep Lakes cyclone spinning up seiche waves ... with but a paltry commitment to a warm frontal wave ... circa PA to the Del Marva .. Two runs ago, it had a less cohesive low with a more obvious attempt at said secondary, but the whole circumvallate was relocated to the middel/lower Ohio Valley ... as well, the mid level mechanics spread out and a little E. So we get to last night's 00z rendition, and we have almost no inclusion/phasing of the N/stream, and a more southern stream low now scooting ENE of the Mid Atlantic almost too far S to really pose much impact N of PHL at all. This saga reminds me of that system I laughed about 10 days ago... Not sure if anyone recalls... but collectively we were busy divvying up who gets what while the system was in the process of vanishing altogether. I mean it's not 'vanished' per se with this, but those kind of total synoptic morphology(ies) ... really should not lend well at all to any kind of determinism from that particular source. The EPS mean may actually be better in this case, not sure...

I'm intrigued as to whether we get the 65 mph gust touted by local media when this thing maxes what 4 or 5 pm... ? I'm not sure what the origin of that suggestion is ...be it NWS' or personal analysis, but ... in my experience it is very hard to exceed 55 mph on land-based under-belly scenarios without iso b correction physics assisting. I did witness a 60+mph once over southern lower Michigan after the passage of a deep low in the 970s, way back in 1981 ... I recall specifically, the low moving NNE ... leaving the area, and fierce storm forced wind gusts downed limbs and disrupted power over a considerable area as that cyclonic arc rapidly lifted through. The problem is, the Ekman boundary layer drag physics really makes that hard ... you need some compensating kinematics ... deep instability with CAA could certainly help. One thing about this that I've been pretty stunned about all week is the multiple sourced model depiction for 140+ kt wind max at 500 mb moving W-E off the MA. Not one or two wind flags either... but a massive tube of mid level mechanical power. These are upper tier velocities for that sigma. Obviously ... I am not suggesting we will mix 500 mb momentum to the surface .. but as an accompanying feature I think that's spectacular

Well ... actually ( this is what I get for jumping into a conversation late...) I wasn't paying attention to your product there, and that it's pretty clearly "5D NHEM" ... I do still wonder if they run those products in quadrature ... I guess some lingering question (also) as to whether that 5 days is the mean leading up to, or ... on the actual day of five. But know what? that's probably irrelevant to my original concern, which was related to the D6-10 range anyway. As far as that goes ... I have specifically noted that the the Euro operational over deepens troughs in that time range, particularly egregiously and elaborately... Mainly when ejecting curvature(s) in the flow out 100W at middle latitudes. Having said that... you may be right that all models do that? I've just been particularly annoyed by the Euro.. Because it seems to go from beautifully illustrated tempests to vesper echoes (if nothing at all) with no in between compromised system. So I think in so far as just D6-10 (which I admittedly now is a different discussion ) "when" the Euro does that, it's perhaps a bit more glaring and thus noticeable.

heh... I find that hard to swallow but I guess ... I have noticed a demonstrative and more frequent tendency than the GFS cluster, to overly amplify troughs beyond D6 in the Euro. Period. Not sure why that is never showing up in this pedestal adoration ceremony whenever the subject matter comes up. Guess I'm just seeing things I would be suspicious of that amplitude in the extended on this 12z run folks. It "looks" like the same antic, of taking whatever residual "dent" it has available at D8.5 from up over the high plains, and drilling a hole in the Earth with it by 10. But ...hey, one of these times it'll nail that - maybe this will be it.

Are those based upon global mean/averaged error... ? Are those assessed in quadrature -

the Euro had a big solution along the EC way back when it was D8 ...9 or 10 too. Or maybe it was an earlier threat ...but, it's not like that model doesn't ghost up a bomb in the same vein.

That's a good point actually .. That Wed/Thur thing with more important backside NVA obviously might change the llv PP which that latter situ has some sensitivity due to such a fast flow not really giving the BL 'nough time to real rot/modify... lotta moving parts

yeah, I was just commenting on that ... looked like white rain in the ORH hills and a pounding for the Monads ... but yeah close enough. I thought there was "hope" there -