Typhoon Tip

It's interesting looking at this (time-sensitive?) image provided by WPC ... Just how much of this thing is entirely produced by mid-level forcing, as anything associated to cyclogenesis appears quite suppressed... Weak low east of Del Marva, with a track trough situated ENE, doesn't scream in favor of the low positions offered by many guidance' I saw leading up - looks like the low position its self may bust S ... just estimating. We're actually closer to the high pressure centered near western Maine; while we brow rub over the northern extent of snows... I'm almost surprised it is snowing as much as it is from PVD to PLY where that band even exists, probably owing to the mid levels smeared NW. For me astride Rt 2, with that fog-snow (yes some aggies ..) But.. this whole structure at mid levels did have a negative elongation as was modeled in the blend so... yeah, they did okay there. All and all, feel pretty satisfied. The last entries last night seem to have verified rather nicely as Weatherwiz and I mentioned... This was slated to be a narrow corridor impactor, hauling ass! You may even be lording over your device or PC in a gray ambiance between noon and 2 pm when suddenly ... forced illumination glows the room. This is an interesting time of year... In the heart of this thing, it's deep winter by appeal. When/if the sun comes out two hours later and the wind stays light, the faux nape warmth that Kevin gets watery-eyed for, along with heated interior of his car ... really does provide two disparate perceptions that he often waxes nostalgic for. We'll see on the latter... The sun angle is climbed enough that a shallow saturation absent lift can evaporate below a weak inversion more effectively than it would in one of those the wood-smoke afternoons of early January. Anyway, we also said that sat and rad can be deceiving. It's interesting that both seemed to work out... The results this morning appear to be a blend about mid way between the high res ... plug pulling toaster party late last night, together with radar looking too neggie and ending up perhaps a little bit farther N... As was evidence(d) by the content dumped into this social media between circa 8pm and midnight ... this thing was a worse performer than what is taking place, while also still being somewhat more compacted S. Interesting

F - !? Not the dreaded minus F. Pay attention folks. Very rarely is there a winter actually worse than a failure. Wtf does that mean, F- haha

I was just going to say… Extrapolating radar doesn't snow north of New York City. But like Will and I were talking about earlier's radar and satellite and stuff can be deceiving. We'll see

How come y'all don't post these 18z Euros

mm... k, buuut... there's some large more super-synoptic scaled arguments I've had all along in mind, that sort of keep/kept me from being too bullish. I could see it going either way - still within margins of error to go only 50 % of consensus totals, and due to the endemic uncertainty with an inherent "needle threader" system and exact course and banding, having weird strike back gashing from HFD- to BED I could see that too... Barring the lesser likely, though, this "should be" a narrow impactor, hauling ass like bats leavin' hell. Translation timing alone playing a limiting factor as well... Compressed, high velocity patterns limit impacts to narrow regions... doing so with middling over all mechanical strength has left me scratching heads to find where 6-8 " come from but again,.. margin for error is bit higher. The MESOs could erroneous for convective handling... yup, but ... maybe they should've been to high in the first place.

Filter turned off again ...? j/k.... good luck with your forecast

Yeah...was comin' in here to eye-pop! man at that GGEM ... that's 1997 April incarnate -

Speak of the devil... James just saved the day! ahah

Careful I've done that before, too ... go to bed feelin' really good about Sat and Rad trends, regardless of whatever disappointment was being evaded on my way to slumber... only to wake up wonder how in the hell said Sat and Rad didn't parlay better... Sometimes those loops sorta kinda like lie? you know -

'Been just sort of observing ... ( lost interest due to my perennial checking out that typically happens in March ...don't take it personally. ) It seems there is/has been a tendency to collectively lean toward higher amounts reviewing many pages in this thread. Then the subtle surprise when x-y-z run cuts back and, then a-b-c model suggests more and we forget the x-y-z... I just wanna add, I don't typically see big amounts from fast moving open waves... particularly when the wave its self has almost vague mechanical signature in the flow. I think some of this nearer term run-up attenuation of the development profile (talking Satur...), may be realism and correction pushing back against the above 'leaning'. On the other hand, just about any permutation in the Earth's atmosphere since about 50 years ago ...is going to have more moisture at its disposal ... so, comparatively weaker kinematics can ...I dunno, add a couple tenths or so... That's just fact - water output from island showers near Fiji, to enormous tempests in the GOA, to categorical hurricanes in the Atlantic... to thunderstorms in WeatherWiz's backyard... everywhere, the atmosphere is empirically holding more moisture and rate results are up. Not sure how much that facet should deterministically add to this thing, but, it's just to say that the same synoptic evolution in 1919 doesn't produce (probably) as prolifically as it does in 2019.. Worth a consideration... if only for a little more. The other aspect I'm toying around with is the "little critter" phenomenon - which is a euphemism (don't panic ) for when a seemingly innocuous perturbation in the flow goes flippin' nuts, which happens regardless of 1919 or 2019, too... I don't know this qualifies, ...I don't think it will ... but, most of those positive bust types take reanalysis to figure out why. You know, I saw Bozart's presentation back in 1997 when he first coind the expression to describe those head scratch six hour long S+er's out of nowhere... as I also recall the system he was using for his presentation. It was fascinating... 10" on a west wind along the pike and SE Mass is the ultimately left-fielder... Pretty sure it was Feb the previous year. Anyway, different story different time no analog.

Watch Saturday end up the main show

I don't see a lot of phasing for that Sat system... It looks like it's just got some surprise potency on the run in own rites... It really looks like a disjointed albeit negative tilted slope there.. .but a disparate wave signature curls up into NYS while there's a weird mini closure of the 500 mb surface scooting NE of CC ... also, the idea of warning snow Saturday then again Monday is a relatively rare occurrence (statistically) and there's a reason for that. Usually the higher the QPF, the more wave spacing is required to reload the pattern. It has happened before... Dec 1996 had back to backs ... poorly forecast, too. The first wasn't but a cat paw forecast and everyone in central/NE zones flipped and went down to 1/4 mi parachutes for the better part of 4 or 5 hours that leveled some 4-6" of positive blue bust. Then came the thundersnow the following overnight to the tune of another 5-9" and between the two there was substantial power issues... But again, that's rare... just something to keep in mind as the GFS tries to turn your screws.

All I did was ask a simple question... interesting... No Brian - I just happened by this hour and noticed a song that sounds a bit like resent that it may be more south this go - I think it's amusing that the loudest people to complain in society are always the richest one's who may lose some money. Not trying to psycho babble anything, but when I look out my window and see 4 feet on the level ... for "me" anyway, I'm not likely to shine on as anything other than entirely ready for spring. to each is own brotha

it's called giving shit right back -- i.e., making fun of y'all ... you do this alot, PF... you get overly serious, then .. project your overly seriousness onto the person you think is being overly serious, when the seriousness is in your honor. haha the only thing i meant in that post was plausibly regretting getting dragged into a nimrod discussion -

Not to drag myself into a lunatic vitriol buuuuut... With the 4 feet of boast going on above MHT ... why would anyone in NNE be jilted if this thing for Monday becomes a southern player? wow

Like I said this morning 60/40 Euro and GFS... seems like this is trying to get there...

Could be any relative of, and including, a NAM solution beyond about a 20 minute outlook too - might want to consider that...

I'm at 30" as of this morning's 20:1 fluff... But, seasonal totals don't delve into moisture content as a qualifier in any way so... 30" it is. I'm buckin' for 5" on Saturday morning, than a quick 8" Monday/Mon evening... and then at 43" ... setting me up for a pattern exit bowling ball event to the tune of 15" to bring me up to an average snow fall season. Who's with me!

Heh ... I suggest taking the blend between the GFS and Euro on the bigger, latter deal.. Maybe 60/40 or something Euro's way, but... 60/40 also by definition (hypothetical as it may be...) means the confidence in either is smearing so if verified 60/40 GFS' way it is neither impossible, nor an outlandish expectation. Thing is, each could still be playing into their own respective biases at this time range ... what are we D5 on that? I'm not discussing any run after the 00z suite. But this is still not quite inside the Euro's wheelhouse and definitely not inside the GFS' - if it has one.. Anyway, the Euro tends to dig too much by inches, and the GFS tends to stretch flows too much by similar smaller, innocuous but important, subtle intervals. The Euro being too far NW in the polarward return flow of the trough, and the GFS thus being too far SE, fits their unique charm and distinction. So, giving the nod to the Euro ... end up with Euro biased blend by that estimate above.

it's because the cinema of the storm was interrupted ... weather and weather phenomenon might have something to do with it in there somewhere, but primarily... it's whenever the "rush" they get from the models gets interrupted the "high" is ruined...

Meh... you guys are being nervy neurotic about mere nutations in outlook that still some five days away... That 850 mb still gets mostly snow for western sections... well within margin for errors. Good luck getting perfection at D5 let alone, having that be successful anyway.

This runs also trying to package the continental cold deposited off the EPO ... bundle it up with that SPV and rotated up and out and leaving the mid latitudes in a kind of faux spring nebular look

yep... the end may terminate slowly .. .but the crux of the winter enthusiasts' focus should really be tonight through about March 10 ... March is a fickle month though - the AO over at CPC is tanking in the week 2 range out of nowhere (for example), and the PNA is rising out of its local time scaled nadir... and that is also a bit of a continuity shift. So, not sold a hugely balmy month or anything, but climo+pattern recognition/tech in total weights these 10 days.

The concept of the 'unmanned fire hose' is being hinted among the guidance, ...some more so than others.. The GFS is really flopping around from run to run in its middle range, placing features up or down in latitude by some 500 to as much as 1000 km of variance from what I'm seeing. Its done this since last November (really) .. but it appears enhanced as a behavior over the last 10 cycles or so. Ultimately rattling its longer term shaky confidence even more. As an aside ... both the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs hint at interesting events when just observing the synoptic evolution at 500 mb. But the surface solutions that go along with are horrible ... I wonder if its notoriously egregious ongoing consummate error in planetary boundary layer thermodynamics, ultimately related fluid mechanics, ... are causing lows to bias too far on the polar side of cyclonic surface arcs. That's speculative... but whatever the cause, it's so bad that the Government really should be sued. There's also a tendency for them to "cover-up" what I feel was a bad release - I think its possible that someone f-ed up and integrated bad BL subroutines in there and this has been a cover-up the whole way ...but I like that kind of conspiracy shit. Ha. Seriously, this model just can't wait to get lows polarward at least excuse imaginable in mid and extended ranges, and given a little more realistic boundary layer resistance in the form of actual cold air ( ... holy shit! imagine - ), some of those wave translations overall might be more interesting. Yet ... that's if they even exist! If all that error wrangle were not enough, it's got mechanics in there that the other models don't even have. Oy - The Euro is bit more stable, but it seems to be almost as inconsistent not so much for "where" ... but "what" to track. Its dropped some wave spaces/identifiable features in lieu of (maybe) better coherency to focus upon... If one did not know any better, they could almost see the model's correction scheme causing that, by desperately ablating the "noise" in while processing ... running out there into chaos and trying to substantiate others. Kinda cool actually... Namely, it seems to be most stable with the March 6-9 period of time. It's got some of these other minoring ordeals too... despite all that. Through all these.. regardless of model, it's pretty clear to me that they all suffer to some degree by the fact that we have a strong -EPO structure (observed and empirically measured), yet heights from Baja California to S of Bermuda still think it's September 2018. The end result is a scream fast wind flow that is making it a hostile environment for individual S/W to operate on the flow and do much. It's the main reason why the Euro's biggest event in that 10 days of its run is a big fat broad open wave rocketing a -12 to -18 mb/hr deepener from DCA to NF in 20 minutes! The EPS is all over that though... but it too has more of the open wave variety ...owing to much of this.

Yeah I mentioned something similar a few days ago. Trend application breaks down crossing pattern boundaries. Edit : I thought I as responding to Ray