Typhoon Tip

It's funny ... just last week how that tenor was diametrical to this sort of dance-around a sombre fireside poetry. It was then so gleeful, the song praised in lust for tortured heat in August, and activating tropics .. There just seemed indeterminable wealth in dystopian nourishment to feed this odd neurosis - dopamine when looking at weather charts that implicate relative dread. Now? throwing hands - ... the most observable difference? No hurricane... banal heat. Basically, no drama. Seems pretty much cause-and-"affect" Next week? ... I predict a 70 .. 80% chance that the tenor will have vagaried right back the other way. It seems there is a separate scoring that is not based upon model verification that is crucial in this "hobby" ( which I quote, because I suspect it's more than merely a hobby for many that regular - ) that is emergent. It's not weather-driven, though rooted in the same lust for drama - sure. It is a transference? It's taking the want of the dramatic expression of Nature, and creating a joy-reliance, more so based upon these modeling technologies and the virtual impressionist art of implications they may paint for the various features they illustrate out in time... And we become fixated on it - that's when it becomes a little ... probably "unhealthy" is the best word for that. Before 30 some-odd years ago... this did not exist. Yet, 'nowadays' we are inherently allowing some random aspect that's never been a part of human history and evolution, become a guide in determining the future of one's life. Fascinating really.. But, when the models seem to dwindle the drama... normalize affairs and impressions of the mid and extended ranges down to something less that a half a single standard deviation ( positive or negative ) that becomes the rainy day. It's almost like in that particular scale, 0 standard deviation modeled virtual tapestry ( which isn't even real mind us...) triggers a 10 standard deviation anomaly in internal angst if not definable as sadness ... Inverse proportionality

next ...

Seems over-done with pressure rising and a rapidly weakening system... I wrote about that earlier... the frictional effect of land and slowing would force the wind off the deck - particularly in weakening profiles. Yet that product looks willy-nilly mixed right plumb to the surface and I don't think that right .

Euro has had three different solutions in three cycles or so... as others noted. This is just another idea really -

Yeah... courtesy of Ryan H.'s nice statistical overview of New England cases, there is a typical layout in the 500 mb height anomaly distribution ..where positive orients from eastern Canada arcing around the Maritimes and subtended below that, there is often a weakness in the lower OV...usually centroid over the midriff easter cordillera. The TCs move with the circulation conducted by these maestros .. up the east coast, but the positive anomaly blocks the eastern turn such that it manages the whole trek and strikes. The 96 hour EPS' mean from 00z "sort of" depicts that... The 500 mb does not offer enough of that last minute/latitude block to prevent the turn. That suggests a parabolic miss...albeit, uber close. It may clip the Hatteras ... It wouldn't take much of a reposition of the positive height anomaly lurking E of CC and S of NS to get this to Boston before the east turn, and probably needs another couple of runs to really gain confidence that/those crucial details are necessarily being handled right

Just my opinion... but it's easy to envision/imagine a rapidly redeveloping or newly developing surface circulation somewhere immediately astride the N/NE coastal region of the Island of Hisp. That mid level presentation is folding cyclonically now more readily in the last couple of hours ... some models have been suggesting that - including the GFS actually - so perhaps we finally are on the verge of at last witnessing an actually TC emergence here.

I wouldn't mind seeing them all ranked ... like going back 300 years, re-analyzed when/where in history it is necessary to do so in order to complete that list. I notice right off the bat just eye-ballin' those, four out of seven "ratter years" are just since 2000. Anyone with a modicum of both an inquisitive nature ... sharing headspace between questions and a tendencies to maintain a general sensitivity as to the "nature" of the present geological era of the Global environment ( and it is proposedly denoted the "Anthropocene" by the way), might be inclined to wonder if that 'recency' is really having as much to do with the ENSO, at all... Perhaps more to do with the taboo elephant in the room narrative - We all know what that is... Yup, global warming may be anachronistically skewing the assumed cause-and-effects. I mean, if the ENSO becomes a lesser a physical drive in a warmly encased system - that's just physics... I'm tipping my hypothesis hat. I don't think the ENSO events are as instructive in the governance of the total Global circulation paradigms ...as an "increasingly failed realization" because the total integral of the ocean-atmospheric couple system is warming ... Rudimentarily: gradient from point A to point B dictates how everything in reality exists ... in reality, including reality itself. From electrodynamic quantum scales all the way to the faults in our gods .... if A doesn't move toward B, there is not A or B .... If the atmosphere is warm over a warm ocean, that atmosphere does not represent a response to the warm ocean; if the atmosphere is cold, it does more so... Really simple actually... Anyway, there was a super Nino some 5 clicks back that did not register the typology of Global impact zones nearly as much ... and ...a lot of seasonal forecasts are failing more so ( that I appears to me...). I suggest reliance and assumption need to change; because in ENSO reliances that I feel folks are getting bamboozled by because the machinery of the atmosphere isn't being as readily levered by the these ENSO variances...

Ha! Yeah.... sorry ...don't mean to come off as Dr No-ish or know-it-all either... It's just that since I tend to pride myself and go out of my way to seek objectivity as a goal/acumen, that means I am quite likely going to default sound like a party pooper or debbie downer. Just being in the room ...heh. By virtue of being proximal to the "ebullient willingness" of guidance interpretation ( eh hem...) that too oft permeates these bus-stops of weather-related cinema seeking social media pass-times .. I get to be the asshole. I'm sure there is that same tendencies over at Earth Quake Central, and Cosmic Ray Burst Just When She Finally Say Yes ... forums too - haha Tongue-in-cheek aside... If it gets above some developmental/momentum threshold ... mm, willing to guess that it exceeds expectation. Not sure by how much ... either 1 mph or 40 ... but it would not surprise me. Particularly when it turns right and heads up... it'll be passing over some of the richest integrated oceanic heat content on the planet...lengthwise for a time, too... as in, not merely passing across the axis of the g-string. Folks, need to remember, the warm thong of the west Atlantic is oriented S-N from southern Florida to about Cape Hatteras... So, turn right and heading lengthwise along that does offer some intrigue ...as the shear profiles presently modeled appear favorable. The storms motion relative to ( SRS) is very low ... It just looks like a scenario for Bobian deepening so experimental thinking but we'll see.. .

I'm willing to hunch that we've had low level ... as in SST-contact flow orienting wind flux anomalies from the E to S around coastal New England this spring and summer. So perhaps now we cash-in on having a bit more robust ( over normal ...) warm seasonal recovery of oceanic surface temperatures because of it. I've noticed buoys S of L.I. over the Bite thermocline putting up 80 and 81 F temperatures ...talking 50 to 75 Mi S of the Island... Meanwhile, the G-string is evident on the colorized images/sat renderings much further S... It's like a quasi 2ndary gulf stream is genesised between L.I. and the actual/real stream line of the GS. Take note of the mid 70s eddy E of the Cape and S of NS out E of 70/40... that's like home grown thermal resident water packaged up in a whirl...so it seems. Keep in mind, the thermocline is pretty shallow S of L.I. .. one TC would pepi la pew a cold stripe real quick and abolish that warm layering in there

Unfortunately for the drama seekers ... that depiction isn't it. It's weakening rapidly and typically, that lifts the wind field off the deck and starts frictionally inducing a stable layer - not necessarily representable in the thermal sounding...not speaking to inversions in that sense. Fluid/viscosity vs the weakening PGF does the decoupling and lifts the wind field, such that cloud tags whisk overhead at ludicrous speed while your winds gust to 30 mph ... But...that does still support the EFO/EF1 spin potential, because as the BL restoring bends inward ... meanwhile, the lifted/decoupled wind field thus creates a strong mass diffluence between the 3 and 6km levels over top, and that ropes any incidental rotation by pulling the column lengths ... blah blah... Overall, depending on the speed of motion, that could produce small to intermediate stream flood response with perhaps 2 to 5" in extinguishing bands that might be in the process of losing intensity and shredding at that point - probably so... I bet that structure has sun shoots and sky-lights near the core ...poking through as it exits the Maine coast... while the wind over interior SNE is dead calm at a DP of 78 If the system is deeper and stronger when it quasi-accelerates ( "quasi" ..because it's not really even clear this thing does very convincingly) up the coast, and slams in ...that's a different scenario and physical impact. Weakening or not, a deep core moving quickly will have a right quadrant wind max to contend with...and also, just have kinematics still playing out to really nail the left with rain... Bob was moving fast and had these momentums/physics in pay ...and the speed of storm motion, outpaced the rate of decay concomitant with TCs entering the Bite water latitudes... and that is key for New England impact scenarios: d(storm) < d(motion) we cannot have these things kinda sort accelerating as mere strong Trop storm profiles... or regarldelss of whatever Frankenmodel like the NAVGEM lubes us with ... it won't be a mere strong Trop storm profile around here. We have had Nor'easters with deeper pressure cores result only light winds in Metro West

I’ll take September over April

Thanks Jerry... again, the first half of the book may be a bit expensive vocabulary-wise for some ...but be patient; the second half may become more entertaining as the science part gets behind. Just setting expectations... Also, Jerry you were one of the ones that encouraged me to try like 10 years ago... I told a story of the 1992 Dec storm and you were insisting that I try a novel... hey, first try..

Yes that's it ! thanks and yup ...the title is rather used by other others/genres

yeah heh...right, I could also like ...look at weather charts, huh. no but I think they have indoctrinated a reliance a bit - I guess it makes arithmetic sense. If the models detect genesis like a million times more proficiently than the exuberant corral of a public domain social media parade ...maybe they should put their chips down on the models - lest they spend their whole lives writing section 6 reasons for deviation forms -

mmm I actually think that's a nod in favor of the other guidance ilk that threatened the EC ...with what remains to be seen... but, it's a nod in favor. It has the system coherently throughout the guidance' pressure pattern/evolution there That said, how often does one see a REX configuration in the Lakes and a EC/L.I. express routed TC ...weak or not?? Fascinating - that's us being S of the HC interface, no question...because typically that confluence would not be that far N to allow that evolution. Heh...be that as it may, it's a nodder -

Much better source... https://www.covidexitstrategy.org/

Yeah...I'd much rather submerge in a volume of water displaced only by my self and another human being's ass juices.... F' that ..I'll take my chances in the ocean and just not swim with the Darwinian brilliant insight of seal populations where messy eating is a veritable water chumming experiment -

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2020072912-nine09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Does anyone ever wonder if NHC is ... cow-tied to the models ? Looking out along the expanse of the CV traffic route ...there's three eye ballers out there, but there is utterly no interest in one that's midriff or the the one that just emerged off Africa. Perhaps they have tools that flesh those out as just eternal TW thunderheads .... I don't know. But I've noticed that there is almost never an Invest designated without perhaps some number of ensembles doing it first - interesting. I wonder if one of these develops. They seemed to do pretty good; in that sense it's not a knock. I just find it curious that there's never a designation without modeling doing it first.

i'm kidding too - "trilogy" come on hahahaha yeah, thanks.

OH I've considered writing that mo'f'n book ... problem is, it's a trilogy

Thanks man ... I really am a loser - but at least this helps when in moments lost in gazes ...arresting in self-evaluation... haha Upon occasion as we glide through the gallorie of mediocrity the glint off our better angles may just catch the eye and cast colorful delusions in place of our despair. I guess that code for, " if you can't dazzle 'em with brilliance, you gotta baffle 'em with bullshit " ... hopefully I came up with something in between

yeah... little worried. I wrote the first half of the book 10 years ago, then put it down to engage in self-loathing for a number of years... That went its course and when I rejoined, you can tell a different tact -but, some of that was premeditated ...I mean, I wanted to write a hard core sci -fi... i.e, can't do that without some pricey syllabic counts. I.e., not lightsabers which is pretty much fantasy - which is fine. It has it's place. But, that does limit the bourgeois appeal to sort of niche the book, doesn't it. But the 2nd half of the book is more humane with the resolution thematic necessity and all that gunk

Hahaha... I wonder if that's a real sub-genre ... Sci-Fi erotica -nice...