Typhoon Tip

That run actually snows really heavily down to about EEN to MHT in NH ... and probably cat paws into the Worcester Hills... it's been 'hinting' at more commitment to secondary, but I tell you what... The main reason why the primary is so dominant in that entire ordeal is because there's actually too much northern stream mechanical awesomeness carving S like an errant galaxy from N of the Lakes.... That's a... b, there's just no ridging over the Rockies... It's been the rudimentary cause for all these lakes cutters ...which is also tantamount to saying the R-wave configuration is just aligned too far W..with ridging along or just off the west coast in the means... the natural couple flow nadir supports a Chi Town winter...

Haley's Comet

..well like I said, no confidence doesn't mean no hope. I understand where you're coming from, but objectivity says so long as you got -20 C at 850 mb plumed into southern Canada, there's chances...

It's been local to sub forums the last several years... NNE was combined with SNE to make up just NE in general... but, if D.C. to PHL gets clocked, everywhere else gets phucked... If we get clocked NNE gets phucked ... if NNE gets clocked, which I guess includes "CNE" ... we get phucked... We haven't had an all-encompassing eastern N/A winter probably since the mid 1990s it seems. interesting... Yeah, so no confidence on the end February through the first 10 days of March... Having to step back on that per recent American -based teleconnections. We've lost the PNA component to all this.. It's flat-lined if not slipping negative... That was a big part, a crucial piece to the puzzle last week when at the time, ( " I " ) was advertising this, which by the way... might end up being the last hurrah of the winter - despite the inevitable vitriol of trolling and denial of truth about March that's going to ignite. The EPO is still tanked and tanking and that's good. It's going to load cold into the Canadian shield... It's after that. I don't see any reason why that is likely to persist (the EPO) ...given to the fact that WPO is out of correlation with it, and MJO is also tryinig to erode the AA phase of the Pacific out in time as it appears slated to mature in the 3-6 for 10 days of early next month. All that probably spells borrowed time with this -EPO. If the WPO was bona fide neggie, I wouldn't be care about the MJO so much .. but, being that it's neutral positive...that means it's in constructive interference and the two "should" overwhelm the EPO. We'll see... That could be the ball game as once all that clears by the boards, the Equinox is right there, or damn nearing it.... I dunno - maybe y'all can cash in on proverbial bowling season, but I just get the hunch that given lesser excuses to do so... this season in particular will get warm - excluding backdoor season of course... I mean winter-wise ... Mind you ... "no confidence" is not me saying no hope. Just that my enthusiasm for circa Feb 27 - Mar 9 has been rattled by the shirking PNA ... The problem is, a -EPO and a -PNA drills (if anything) just a more amplified version of the same travails that have dictated much of the last couple of months,. It's rather ironic ... that we've finally changed the pattern, ... into one that's even more terrifyingly atrocious to winter enthusiasts. After this year, it's like walking into a Nazi prison camp and taking all their sandwiches.

Try 43 ... I'd a given anything to feel 50 in that three straight weeks of May 2005.

Jesus Christ. The trafficking shit's alleged. Not proven. You NFL motivated posters need to can it. None of this has anything to do with football or the NFL ... announcing your allegiance to your team in the same post/context as this story demonstrates your using this information in lieu of adjudicating for the purposes of law/morality. Which is in fact also how this story had broken. inappropriately ...

There's a stench oh hypocrisy about how this whole story broke. Apparently ... his is not the most famous name on the list of those who were busted. So why is it his name, in a society driven by celebrity rage ... the first one that breaks out into mainstream coverage? sounds fishy. He may have involved in the shenanigans of a rub and tug that day ... he may not have. But this looks like a public sacking either way.

I haven't been paying too close attention to this but just on the surface ... (pun intended...) this looks like it may mix pretty high and there may be some momentum fluxing. CAA instability style... I don't see a lot of iso b type pulsing but the general advection terms are impressive amid a lot of gradient nonetheless.

Yeah agree that sentiment as well... In fact, let it bitch and piss cryonics all it wants at this time of year ... it's like a super nova? The core of the stellar body starts fusing iron and that's the ball game - it ends really quickly. It's fascinating ... The star can fuse heavier elements for a billion years, but the instant it hits the iron cycle... game over! within minutes the core implodes,... but, the outer layers of the star may take up to 10 hours to even respond... That's what post Feb 20 is like as a metaphor... The winter is dead, but it takes between 10 days to 10 weeks depending... before the atmosphere responds ... a time in which the fires of passion may rage unaware that its foundation is gone.

Well... fwiw - I've always felt that the previous peregrinations with the EPO were sorta "bootlegish" ... It just always seemed to me the previous EPOs were there numerically ...not so much synoptically so structured - probably owing to the domain space defaulting negative phase because of stuff going on around it... if that makes any sense? It's kind of like when the MJO makes the AO negative... when the AO heights don't look that way - it's basically because storminess at mid latitudes is enhancing the easterly trades up there around 55 N and those easterlies trip the EOFs into a negative mode... something like that... But those shenanigans may be more what's ad nauseam. This one looks more bona fide structured, with obvious blocking nodal Alaskan sector and migrant through the NW Territories ...more climate friendly to winter enthusiast liking. It's entirely possible that global models are not yet fully responding to that forcing just yet. Also, the PNA relaxing toward neutral appears clad, and that's also changing the landscape a little. I get it though... hot dogs, stadium beer, home runs and daisy dukes are a much better alternative to any sort of unfulfilled promises. To that ... I can only say, no promises being leveled... But, this is a different look for a couple of weeks just the same.

I'm wondering if that's the last hurrah for this winter... barring something that's really fluky in bowling season. Heh, been a while since we've have a dynamical blue beaut ... I remember the one in 1987 ...like way back then. It was deep enough into the spring that leafs on the broad leaf sugar maples were half unfurled ... Course there's 1997 and 1977 ... Hey, maybe it's a 1 very 10 year thing... So, we're owed three of them - haha But, this is different than last year. We are not getting the whole scale relaxation to go along with the blocking ( in this case...the EPO... last year was the NAO...etc...) ...it's why we are getting more smearing of mid and extended range chances. I remember last year, those nor'easters in March really were well handled at fairly long leads... Anyway, I just wonder if when the EPO fades off around March 10 or whatever, if there's nothing left... like in 2014.. the big huge coastal bomb that rolled all the cold up with it and that was it...

But even that late system...it does ..or hints strongly like it's going to, do the same thing. It has plenty of space in the south for plumbing a deeper anomaly on down, and it even has a block in NW Canada to help force that to happen, yet it dangles powerful wave spacing precipitously over the Lakes and somehow it holds it at that latitude... Yet, at other times, it doesn't have the compression available in the south...and it doesn't have a blocking mechanism in NW Canada to force things S, yet like that run three days ago, ...it somehow melon balls the troposphere 'nough to stem wind a bomb on the MA... we'll see -

Heh... I'd watch that... The fact that the N/stream didn't come down and phase more with those antecedent features looks dubious to me. Not tryin' to storm monger but that looks a little odd at D9 how it has that little tiny nuke E of MA while the entire majesty of the full latitude trough is anchored to JB like that - that's a look I suspect will change on the next runs(s)

D 7/8's got a decent prelude set up ...not sure it'll do anything with it on this run... but, with the EPO ridge dislodged and drifting into NW Canada, it should push that SPV fragment S and into that "dent" in the field over the Missouri Valley region... The flow over the Gulf and Florida and so forth is also less compressed ...

You know it's true .... that 'entitlement'? or maybe that's a little too strong of a word, but it does seem to lead a failure to recede back into one's climatology on some level or another. Prior to the demise of Eastern WX ... the mid-Atlantic folk were insufferable - and I'm not sure whether you, or anyone else reading this ... , were part of the 2002-2009 era, but particularly in the earlier years, they did not cordon off "sub-forums" by region. It was a very different culture. Not judging...just sayn'. Anyway, 1996 utterly RUINED them folks. I don't know what was worse, the storm, or... the unmitigated sense of feeling ripped off every year after the fact ...at least through 2006 before they came back to Earth and seemed like their tone and tenors were not as offended by mere normal PHL climate. 1996, in case folks are wondering, is the year of the great Megalopolis Blizzard... They've had other extra-ordinary winters in the MA since. 2010 leaps to mind... but, we haven't been interacting with those cats down that way nearly as intimately since American came on line, and is heavily sub-forum contained. So who knows what their expectations are like now... Course, in 15 years of weather social media shenanigans ... it's unlikely the same users are there anyway. Point is, I know what you mean and I agree. It seems years like 1996, 2010... 2015 ... 2008 ..whatever, we tend to spin up hopes pretty high and have to crash pretty hard when dr reality serves a dose of sanity.

I'm just ribbing back - ...but mine are meaner and assholier it's the way I roll

Okay ...so,.... mmyeah, okay. Some models trying to come back with a bit more amplitude and so forth for that critical Feb 27 through March 5 (or so...) time span. But, part of the problem with the guidance ...particularly at this range, is what I was just commiserating with Ray about, ...the flow is too fast for phasing. The GFS actually came about half way back... the GGEM has a tantalizing solution where southern stream deep west Atlantic low is just missed capture. I think Scott's advice is salient ... prooobably not a lot of determinism outside of 4 days in this particular set of circumstances..

No relationship... The main focus was actually the Pacific SSTs on the winter circulation... I digressed into aeronautics ... about fluid dynamics wrt to wind resistance... which solar radiation is effecting airline personnel is a separate matter.

Meh, it was directed at Ray... I don't care if either of you get enlightened and/or engage in any endeavor to do so...

Cut, just so clear... that is a different rooted phenomenon to what Ray and I were just discussing... You may be using that other discussion as a segue but, that's different phenomenon.

Mm... deeper than all that.. I don't personally believe that all which has travailed us can be watered down to merely mishandling the el Nino - Firstly, ...this/that was no dig on you further above - like I said...there was a goodly bit of tongue-in-cheekism intended. Secondly, while I agree that the el nino appears to have failed, I believe the circulation base-line isn't either la nina. As I intimated pretty clearly in that, there is a systemic crisis - for lack of better word - where every autumn when "normal" seasonal cooling heights begin to push south during ensuing winters, since roughly 2000 ..they are running into more resistance elevated geopotential medium - perhaps rooted in GW as an aside, but perhaps not. Either way, there results in the gradient being anomalously sloped from roughly the 35th parallel to the 55th. The "likeness" that creates to to La Nina, is purely coincidental. It has to be... because SSTs/thermocline is/are crucial in determining the oceanic-atmospheric "coupled" state, and since the cooler SST part of that is missing... it cannot logically be La Nina. SO, the only alternative conclusion is that something else is causing these compression preponderances and its concomitant accelerated overall wind speeds. I think it's just normal seasonality from the N ...butting into pervasive heat saturation. NCEP also recently published a statement in their ENSO write up ... that it does not appear the Pacific anomaly has ever yet coupled to the circulation system of the atmosphere so... It's just been a non-factor, which leads no where else. Did you know that some airline reported 730 mph ground relative velocities over the open Atlantic ocean last week. That's essentially sonic speeds! I mean, it's ground relative velocity, mind you - they weren't actually flying a commercial jetliner at sound relativistic velocities ... not a 747 anyway. Now I don't know if that's ever happened before... if so, how frequent, but I suspect that sort of effect is increasingly evidenced where flights can either benefit vs delay from the maelstrom. Recently ... a buddy of mine and his family set out on what turned into a major crusade, connection flight deal to ultimate destination, Fiji. This was something outta of 1980s comedy about Plains Trains and Automobiles only not so haha. They ultimately ended spending three days of their allotted vacation, replete with squirming unforgiving 5 year old, ... somewhere around L.A. because a critical leg of the flight miss-calculated (in this day and age of high tech Meteorology, device to wisdom and back) fuel due to higher consumption at slow flight rates in head winds... The connection missed... it seemed the FAA couldn't rewire the transportation infrastructure if they wanted to... These sort of occurrences are increasingly more common ... But that's a digression... My point is, a normal seasonal arctic/polar domain space resting over top even a subtly ubiquitous warm surplussed middle and upper air medium in the mid latitudes is f'n everything up.

EPS is utterly devoid of that mid week thingy too - ...at least per 00z. In fact, I'm rather bemused at everything this morning. Not that anyone asked - But, there's all but one storm, granted a robust one ... for western Ontario ...Otherwise, with two to perhaps three intensely deepy -EPO cold dump events track-able throughout the Euro run (for example), we are left being sold that nothing necessarily happens of consequence between those oscillations that span some 0C to -30C at 850s, along with concomitant wave roll-outs. ..... nothing else. Hmm. I guess. Oh, there are other cyclones dappled about the hemispheric space, but they are fractal blips ... gone upon the next run. There's no like clad signal ...anywhere. It really is rather remarkable. The thing is, they are all doing this... Not just the Euro. The GFS is clearly suffering from velocity induced "ripping" in the W-E coordinate...by the way. I really suggest people get their heads around this concept limitation... perhaps even start modulating a "butt f*" index into their seasonal outlooks. Ray's? shit ... it woulda been spot on... if he had only included this one factor - if he had known about velocity saturation and this secondary interference problem ... this piece of utter shit resultant winter might have naturally fallen out of that arithmetic of factors. Little tongue in cheek there... ha... but... see, part of the problem really is what I feel is a static problem with subtropical height abundance ( a positive anomaly that may be unnoticed of sorts...) that is girdled the hemisphere from HA all the way around to the N. Atlantic. As mid ...now late winter height nadir reaching its maximum depth presses down from higher latitudes... it's defaulting the whole scope and scale into a hurried over abundant velocity rich environment. And one that is destructively interfering against more organized systemic events. Some pricey words there ...but, just think of it this way (for the lay folk) ... it's hard to organize a marching band with hyperactive kids.

00z NAM looks warm

I dunno ... 170 lbs... figure 10:1 and go from there... If 1700 lb is a cubic yard of liquid water, that implies 1700/10:1, which is the thus (1700/10) X 1 = 170 But ...real life seldom resembles real numbers... If you "fill" snow into a yardXyardXyard bin... it's probably highly aerated and therefore, not really 10:1... more like 20 :1 or perhaps 15 ...or something less dense than 10:1 ... So you gotta kinda use your head.