Typhoon Tip

Yeah I'm a little spooked by the overnight runs my self. I could see the whole scale baroclinic axis up and bump NW at say 48 or 60 hours lead, ...leaving chicken counters holding empty shells, going, 'Whaaa' Problem is ... it's happened on more than a single occasion this season. There's been failures to relay colder solutions in general, into short range from the mid ranges. Something about this particular year's 'emergence' phenomenon ( if you will..); it has been persistently against colder snowier icer winter going across that ~ temporal boundary; it seems to be happening most frequently at around that time range ...somewhere between 48 and 72 hours. This is a candidate for that imho. Not saying it will.. I do still believe that the fast nature of the flow should stretch things, and that stretching should actually ease off the 500 mb observations you are making - which are clad btw, but I think there is correct-ability toward flatter, which actually helps in this scenario as we've been discussing. So, we inched toward a colder look for several cycles recently, and that fits. But the 00z - imho - actually ticked back NW slightly ... almost just by a less coherent panache of the whole thing, and that's a direct homage to season tendency discussed above like it's bursting with desire to bend over this social media patronage for another sore-butting... and got so anxious it exposed its inevitable intent to do so. Mmm... I'm still too scarred by the former sort of "synergistic" tendency to f-up a winter solutions to let that 'hint' just go unrecognized myself. So we'll see.

In any case ...there are actually two ice storms almost properly modeled on this 18z run .. which I'm sure you've collectively acknowledged but 90+ pages is plenty for me May y'all should start a new Feb one ...heh

As Ray would say - ...this is like Geoffrey Dahmer lecturing to an ethics committee -

That's D7.5 Euro is a classic NJ model nuke...

...and I may be an hour behind consensus here but the Euro appears to be arriving with a substantive SE adjustment... Ways to go -

That ICON solution outs the grid overnight Thursday, period -

The GFS carried suggestion for a longer duration event ...and others mentioned it - but the context of 'merely remarking over the model's depiction' might have gotten stripped away.

There's probably some interpretation and significance -related subjectivity to these analysis ...haha, to put it nicely. Will's point's true in the sense that the changes are minor wrt to total structure ( imho ) ... but, subtleties have big sensible impacts in this scenario. We really will have a pretty large, lead-side air mass bust potential.. .because we are transporting unusually warm air masses for 'typical winter' intrusions this year, but have these cold highs occasionally timed through S-SE Canada, where it can be 50 to 60 F colder by comparison. Remember that gig several weeks ago, when it was 64 in eastern CT, and like 29 in Nashua? It's been a fascinating year for gradient saturation... Anyway, imho, if the Euro bumps a little more NW again on this run, and the high in eastern Canada peels away six hour faster, ...those changes are whole-scale subtle, but become a pretty big sensible change in CT.

Lol, but hey ... we should give him props for setting that up. Nice.

Right ... random guess until the system's framework is more coherent -

I don't know about whole-scale changes .. but, I did detect an slight NW bump with the Euro toward the UKMET's 12z solution from yesterday, wrt to the Euro's 00z release. The other subtle, but perhaps hugely important change for me, is the handling of the surface pressure pattern over SE Canada. The Euro and in particular, the GGEM ..were more progressive with that high pressure ...peeling it away into the lower maritime bit faster - so it seems.. Admittedly, the 00z Euro I refer too comes from PSU E-wall, which panels every 24 hours... as does Tropical Tidbits, so exact matching is little trickier. One thing that also that occurs to me, .. I snarked ( half seriously) three or four weeks ago in a post how most cyclones this season have done one of two things: they've either corrected up the St L Seaway, or .. they've end up hugely over blown in the guidance and end up being almost nothing sweeping fronts and fragment baroclinic leafs off the eastern seaboard - this most recent serving as a nice example. You guys remember that 951 mb low over ACK run the GFS had some 10 or 11 days ago ...? Ha ha, we're saying the usual suspects like, "It's just eye-candy, but - " love the head game. So I'm trying to figure how this season trend/tendency to over top, or under whiff might be overcome this week. The only thing that really bucks that trend ... beyond just random pattern change ... is this advent of -EPO and cold loading.. It's tough to know how that is going to resolve into a pattern forcing - whereby storm tracks and types would play-out differently. Firstly, according to GEFs derivatives, the EPO really doesn't start neggie until next weekend, but it does seem like early flow constructs hint already. We'll see. But the 00z guidance, as is ... seemed to play into each's own specific bias type - aggressively so .. The Euro went a tick or two more meridian in total structure everywhere with low. Contrasting the GFS's stretching bias ...seems to just end up with a system closer to Eastern Seaboard, ending up there because it's gaining a longitude every 6 hours by a couple degrees ... Probably just compromise in favor of the Euro might be the course of least regret. Normally I'd side like 70/30, Euro/GFS respectively at D5 buuut, the flow is awful fast. That doesn't lend to shorter wave lengths like the Euro needs to get it's deeper Cleveland primary. I'd say since we are crossing into D4.5 for regions east of 110 W in the guidance, this 12z run might begin that gap closer. If the GFS bumps NW than the Euro may be more correct with a stronger primary that attempts to lift up the seasonal trend St L

Don't say dismissive shit like 'welcome to four hours ago,' when you clearly didn't pay attention to the content I specifically typed - and there for were out of line had no basis for sarcasm. Again, you folks didn't discuss specifically why the UK might be the less likely outcome; I offered some insight there - which you wise cracking was baseless at out of line. You were just wrong dude - I pointed that out, you don't like. Tough. Which by the way, is dick heady

Nah you read that reply improperly too Explained why UK was unlikely I didn’t see that in any of your previous posts when you guys were bantering discussing that specific point. A point u missed when you were wise assing.

ICON always does this… Notice the big gap opening up over Western mass eastern New York north or south eastern PA at 120 hours? That whole region in there is cold air dammed and it’s like the model can’t resolve that so it splits the QPF in half and kind of mangles the low in that region.

It’s an object representation of a person or subject of certain veneration

No you guys weren’t discussing why the UK was an unlikely solution...just grousing as usual, which was unlikely reasoning point ...so welcome to lucidity wise ass LOL

Ukmet's has a whopper BUF bomb ... But that guidance definitely has never completely sans the meridian bias at D6 anyway as far I've seen so we'll see. That solution bucks the flat progressive idea though -

Everyone's seen the GFS and it's been going on for several cycles. It's hard to tell if the Euro''s camp is on board, but... 2 days periodicity on flat wave winter storm ejections is a repeating theme across said cycles. The problem is - what's new - that fast/progressive flow is buck-shot on timing and exact impact regions where tend to be narrowed because of the pancake/flat nature of open wave cyclone types. Which enters questions on whether these entities in the stream are real even - but we'll cross that bridge. It's better for modeling cinema and keeping ennui down to actually have something to wonder about though -

Agreed ... not with that pressure pattern east of the cordillera... The local geo forcing/fluid mechanical restoring will barrier jet the hell out of that 920 mb level if that layout verifies and probably ... that's an over smoothing anyway. It's next to impossible to warm intrusion SNE's interior when there +PP over NE Maine and antecedent drain already established. It's almost fluid mechanically impossible ..The only way to over come that would be to have a 70 kt 875 mb level WCB fire hose...which happened in late Jan 1994 but this isn't that.

Heh.. yeah, the front coming south in future guidance ... almost seems with massive climo weight they might pick up on that sooner or later. Might help confidence. It occurs to me, this is a fast approaching thing. Funny, I was hung up on the last debacle and this is really day 5 which isn't terrible for verification - just not slam dunk range either. actually this year it seems we need it 10 minutes out but that's another thing -

Risking a nostalgia thread hijacking .. know what I miss? I used to love how in icing events - even though I loathe it if the power cuts ... - how you walk out side in that gray timbre'd light, and the smell of it. It does .. it really does have a kind of smell. I don't know if it's just distant soupcons of wood smoke mixed some how with cold dp insert air ...something, but it's a fun vibe. Then of course the powers out ten minutes later and I hate everyone -

I have an idea: let's start a 'real' February thread, seeing as we are technically not even in February .. yet we're on the heavier side of a 100 pages - hahahaha. And, I'll throw myself under the bus and fire-off thread re next week's potentials ??

Scott's motif of loaded up overrunning potentials is repeating in this run. Probably some split flow latency in the flow ...if not coherently identifiable, maybe by behavior it is evidenced. Those blue air masses with arms stretching periodically through Ontario, while squirting pancaked waves through the OV and overrunning is quite concomitant with either -EPO or quasi EPO cold loading and the flow meandering underneath from the SW. It's almost like a 10 days overrunning story with a couple/few breaks separating chapters.

There is absorption of that trough ejection though... I just clicked through... At around 120 hours as the trough approaches west TX or thereabouts, the southern tip is robuster than it is at 144 .. 168, when by this latter time and space it is over the TV as a positive sloped wind max - that morphology is the height compression's destructive interference. It becomes a matter of force balancing really - whether this thing has enough maintain that cohesive entity or lose more in absorption. This rendition is enough to keep the fan-fair happy though, either way. And there's no way those p-type layouts work out that way and the typical GFS BL dipshit handling is pretty clearly going on there. Th'at's just a straight up ice sagger

well... yeah, in fairness no love loss or embarrassment on that if I'm wrong...it's just that it seemed(s) unusual to have the Euro's wave length so stretched, yet have the wave so robust ... to mention, with height compressed and lead flow already zipping along in the S/SE doesn't lend to wave integrity holding its shape and form so well, either. But, hell - anomalies relative to anomalies nested inside conundrums wrapped in enigmatic oddities happen from time to time in this vercokta business too -