Typhoon Tip

mmm I live along Rt 2 (essentially) and it ranks probably #4 on the all-time list of having had the region's winter enthusiast head stuffed in Satan's ass

Exactly like I said ... coming in gradually less amplified and/or up the St L. Seaway just like exactly no other system portrayed in the Euro has ever failed to do in 30 months... Thanks for playing along with the lost con-game of the year. All this trough does? ... spring arresting cold ...nothing else. heh, it's like the models have been churning run out of the Pandemic's basement -

Nah it’s most likely that Euro runs over doing that amplitude just like it’s never not done re anything in that time range for the past 30 months

I’m jealous. There’s nothing else going on in this godforsaken shitty mess of a world we live in and the weather can’t be any worse than rain at 37 fn deg it’s got me run down and wishing I could just see a snowstorm in April. I’m not gonna lie ... if it’s a big event any April I’ll take it to the bank. But at this point snow might be interesting diversion

because 1070 mb highs happen all the time

Does look like Sandy in an homage - Those individual members are 'perturbed' which just means they have variant physical equations ...but that means the convective processes are handled slight different, creating different system-internal thermal handling ... This was evidenced as warm secluded already, so it meandering over a tepid SST G-string out there ...it may be taking on 'faux' profiles due to version-based thermal surplus... If/when it did take on 'real' ST characteristics probably requires analysis after the fact.

Looks like the 12z NAM is cooling the 800 mb to SFC thermal profile in the last 18 hours of this retrograde event enough to offer 'chutes/paws for the Worcester Co and probably Middlesex ...west of I-95.. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/gopher-local/albany/FOUS61 BOS 36013955313 -2208 120428 45040000 ... Those "00" are 0C at 800 and 900 mb from right to left... Cold rain at Logan, wet sn inland? 42013966315 -1210 160325 44030000 48010944320 -1613 190320 44020197 54002923624 -0912 200415 44029998

This thing tomorrow night ... I thought it just a 'spoke' of vorticity orbiting around a west Atlantic/-NAO spring cut-off climo, but it's more than that. This is a 'hook and latter' Nor'easter. The low is retrograding west and places the region inside its envelope - this isn't a mere spoke rotating around.

GFS has done this every years since about 2005 ... It fails to negotiate its way out of winter into seasonal change. Way back whence ... circa 1993, I remember there used to be winter algorithms and summer algorithms in the models - then it was the 'MRF'. I'm pretty sure.. I thought over the evolution that was no longer the case...but, the GFS did this last year and year before, and the year before that ...etc.., where it gets beyond day 10 and the whole fields goes back to Jan 15 at this time of year. Interesting -

Saturday then opens up spectacular ...could be a first top 10er day of the year. 850's +2 C SE of a Rut-Con line... with PGF focusing a subtle d-slope look, and RH flooring/open sky .. it could snow Friday morning at least in the air, and have that be 66 F the next afternoon in that look... I don't actually care as much suffering April shitz weather if it's going to modulate mercy the next day like that - fine!

wow, this 12z Euro run is very darn near close to an isothermal Friday morning ...about +.25 C at 850 with that low retrograding to near the BM... interesting -

Classic gaining sun-angle mid spring scenario where the MOS may nail it but the backyards bust 1 to 3 clicks warmer... Love these faux-warm afternoons for the alternative they offer comparing the drab misery of yesterday's ilk. So it's 50 here at multiple home stations within a mile or two of mi casa. And the wind is negligible ...so when you find a 'sun nook' it's really a stolen gem compared to what the overall week's appeal looked like at any modeling point before this day for this time period.

Ohgh....no comparison! Compared to yesterday and the day before? my god - I'll take 47 and full sun post the Equinox over that layering between rectal-plaque and Satan's colon walls weather we were given yesterday. That was our world-ending salvation...

Wouldn't shock me if locales like Blue Hill observatory ...or up along the slopes of the eastern ORH hills recoup a few hours of cat paws or even some mangled 'chutes during the first 6 or so hours of that (50-56 hours) in a NAM thermal handling. Actually all models indicate that interval as warm advection from the NE ... a bit counter-intuitive but that is actually not that atypical for a deeply core-wrapped west Atlantic cyclones that are pinned under a west based -NAO ridge in the spring. This used to happen more frequently in the 1990s. So we get some pingers and white globule rain drops for a while, and then it's cold mist and light rain horror show for another 12 hours after that, and then we're done as the whole structure rotates SE and away... And notice the 500 mb thickness tapestry matures some 6 to 10 dm prior to after that spoke pivots through? That's a warm front/symbolically Saturday could be a fantastic day and probably starts the transition into an extended period of probably the best 850 mb thermal layout of the spring so far..though obviously nuances/sensible surface weather to be determined. The Euro looked like it was attempting to paint a couple gems 7, ...10

agreed! very much echoed this a couple weeks ago when it was obviously destined that way

which is inversely proportionate to stating, ' we will always understand Kevin's illogic'

Presently ...for those that hold out for a late surprised, your window 'appears' to be this week. The antecedent -NAO was remarkably well handled by the various ensemble means, but the details in the flow ( timing/spacing waves et al) have emerged to nuance this particular version of a -NAO ...utterly meaningless to your hopes and dreams. Which in a petty sort of way, the spring/seasonal change and warm enthusiasts suffer beside you in equal proportion, because any -NAO in the first week of April is not a warm signal either, particularly if/when it is idiosyncratically west-based... That said..., at least for the warm enthusiasts, the -NAO appears to (thankfully!) have a lease. The Euro operational run has been signaling the NAO blocking node(s) as collapsing to mesh in with the perennial Atlantic heights, leaving a bit more zonal component to the westerlies at high latitudes across the D. Straight/adjacent N. Atl Basin as near as this week's end ... The GFS seems, as usual, to be fictionalizing the Hemisphere of Neptune on Earth by beady-eyed obsession to keep the flow progressive and therefore loses any signal at all in lieu of said bias beyond 5 days - so tougher read there. But, as far as the Euro, it concomitantly raises the heights over eastern N/A mid latitudes/U.S. It's not a hugely demonstrative ridge or anything, but it may become more prevalent given some marinading in time. The EPS made a pretty significant adjustment in the D7-10 range toward more a -PNAP signal...and with the NAO at that time appearing to either be neutral/rising, that could be the real, true seasonal exit and green up ... 'outdoorsy' push that flips the script. We'll see, but that signal starts ~ 6 days from now and matures going onward from there. In the meantime, this week is tormented misery unfortunately. D4 may actually feature a pivot/-NAO spoke of wet snow and cold rain coming down like we used to see in the 1990's springs. Kind of reminiscent there. Beyond that... April is very tough to establish and maintain warm signals. Even in the warmer characterized patterns, we have such a huge dichotomy between land/continent and near-by Labrador modified death vapor. By physical circumstance and gravity, that latter is denser and wants to be underneath said warmth of the continent - which by irony and [probably] the design of satan himself no doubt, that's where humanity of course must be. It's like there is a permanent counter vector always pointing SW underneath the environmental synoptic appeals, at all times - think "white men can't jump" - oh they can, they just have to work harder to do it. Same here... we can get warm in April, but we have to overcome this veritable vector ... arriving (typically) in the form of back-door fronts, and/or like this week, seemingly eternal west Atlantic cut-off gyres. So, having a tentative warm signal heading toward the 10th of the month is almost a blessing already - certainly a start.

I'd start that thread but in my own proclivity for harsh lament over the dreaded month of April in New England, I wouldn't have anything other than hate for God to say so ... I can only butcher Samuel Clemens, a.k.a. 'Mark Twain''s bemusement: "the worst winter I ever experienced was "April" in New England" ... his version '..was a summer San Francisco' but it works -

For those of us that long for the warmth of spring and the return vibe of vitality, leading the anticipation of summer ... etc, etc, some encouraging signs from the 00z EPS mean that the recent Euro operational ideas of relaxing the seasonality/cool appeal in the east is now only a week away. I'm looking forward... because we can hand-ring and wanton lust for these -NAO but like this one hammers over heads and the lessen still fails to get through skulls ...the -NAO is not what people think it means for winter enthusiasts. It's a suppression signal ...as the lower/Mid Atlantic low escape and failure along the EC proves for the millionth time. Heather Archembault's paper from way back in the day explained statistically in fairly discrete results that the primary storm-loading pattern for the eastern U.S. is the PNA modality... with, as her conclusion paraphrases, a weaker corresponding similar behavior with the NAO. But, popular media and science-fad of the day seemed to flip this around and to this day,... approximately 1.5 generations-worth of individuals scientifically reared during that era, persist with that faux perception. The/her papers really just point out the the key to a large scale instibility is a disruption passing thru. It's really just using statistical methods to point out what is intuitively obvious ( to me..), but has it's huge value and merit in the scientific process. If a system reaches and equilibrium state, than it is quiescent and 'not storming' ... Then, something comes along to perturb the field ... cyclones results. That 'perturbation' of the field IS the changing index - the upward or downward moving teleconnector index means that there is something perturbing - that is why cyclones happen more frequently at the teleconnector inflection points. Since the atmosphere in the northern Hemisphere tends to move west to east at mid latitudes...it then adds to the intuitive notion that the PNA would be a better loader than the NAO... because the PNA comes from the west. The NAO probably has a better use as a 'modifier' ... destructive or constructively interfering with the PNA's signal(s) depending on which way its index is moving in tandem. Almost like the MJO; when the WPO/NP/EPO are out of sync with the MJO, the MJO doesn't seem to have much echo in the flow as an enforcing agent... Yet, when they sync up, look out! Synergy results and the flow characteristics can get extreme in either direction. The NAO probably adds ( not in the exact same way...), but offers modulations that help/constructively interfere's with troughs, or vice versa... to mention, helping cold loading in front-sides to enhance baroclinicity/thermodynamic instability that way...and on and so on. Anyway, this NAO migration that's going to unfold over this next 3 to 5 days ...hearkens my attention back to this annoying misconception that was handed down by early assumptions in the late 1980s and early 1990s and everyone ran away with... I'd take a pulsed rising PNA with antecedent -EPOs any day before a NAO does anything as a winter enthusiast. But at this time of year...I don't want either. I'm hoping the NAO relaxing while the PNA fails to actually go positive, as per last night, are indications that the EPS/Op. Euro are onto a warm mid month

Two runs in a row and the Euro's D7-10 exit to spring

Nah...the sounding's probably thermally straight up to 700 mb... 37 putrid butt-bangin' hell - It's amazing leaf out ever happens in this hemispheric scaled, meat-locker tuck geography called New England

Welcome to New England's uniquely sorted spring charm -

Looks like the NAO is betraying y'all in incremental run erosion ... experimentally seeing what it takes to give up - then it'll bring it back once NCEP sees only melancholy posting tenors. Y'allz jump on board and get excited, then everything misses -

It's weird ... I'm not sure if this is just acclimation phenomenon as it pertains to my person but ...it seems we keep putting up rather lofty monthly temperature anomalies and I don't feel we've had much 'warm' appeal to it. That goes back years too... Like the summer a couple clicks ago, when the big eastern ridge was modeled for the first week of July - when the GFS was MOSing 115 ( ) and we rightfully suspected its error. Turned out to be a 96/72er heat wave which is plenty hot but... the summer as a whole didn't seem outlandishly warm - humid and dewy after that, but not appreciably "hot" ...yet, the numbers seemed to suggest Venus came to Earth. I think part of this is that the overnight lows are skewing perception? I guess I don't care enough to look into it... But +4 to +5 above average ...'seems' like we should have had more days warmer than full sun 44 F'ers and that's what I remember the majority of afternoons...otherwise, we've even logged a snowfall in there. We did do a 70 day though... Maybe 40 years ago, this March would have been down right balmy by common experience... But not today? And sensibly, this was not 2012 - it almost seems like this 2020 March achieved those lofty numbers by successfully evading a pleasant month - culminating in a global Pandemic -forced shut-down of Humanity to put the dog shit icing on the fecal cake gestalt that is clearly out attack our species...