Typhoon Tip

Might even be symbolic to say so ...for lack of better words, but do I think I recall there is a historical signal for a frost/autumnal intrusion of polar air mass through NE 72 hour prior to EC runners... I think if memory recalls some of those 1950s events had this... It's all in the timing. This run is close to bi-passing Teddy with that trough that three runs ago the GFS was using to rip the cyclone out and rocket across the N Atl... That's why it is adjusted west. And again to re-iterate, ...it becomes transitively crucial that the models time the polarward migration right because if they prove too eager to pull Teddy up, than a bi-pass gets more plausible and then suddenly at D5 we have big solution pile of uncertainty steaming on our plates.

Yeah ... Teddy's accurate track handling over the next 60 hours - I think - may be more crucial in the evolution after that ...namely as far as how much/when the polarward motion takes place. One thing that Teddy is different than predecessors is that the cyclone's present location and recent evolution have all been quite far to the S ... I've been toying with the notion that models are bit too eager to pull Teddy out of such a deep latitude. Perhaps this is because there is a combined 'beta drift' superimposing along with a subtle weakness in ridging/steering nearing 60W. Alone these factors may not be enough but together it's too much and models start the curvature process early. Just the thought.. the 00z Euro does already appear to be demonstrating a slight polarward bias though - it may be interesting to see if that bias continues to emerge over the short term.

Depends how we are determining the eye structure... if rad: Seeing as the far side of the perceived eye is actually near the edge of the rad range - even at long channels... - it may have more a closed eye than we think. But I have seen recon messaging -

We mentioned over an hour ago this was RI prone - ..yup, and this also matches the conversation we had two days ago, re there is perhaps a precedence for strengthening west of 70 W across the Basin -

Saturday night looks like a more all-inclusive region(s) frost and probably freeze threat N of southern VT/NH ... I'm sure this is well advertised at this point but that synoptic appeal is quintessentially perfect for an ice in the birdbath morning come Sunday 7am.

Heh... we know winter's near anyway. Why? Because the GGEM has formally put out its first solution that just couldn't wait for the opportunity to infuse a cold core tropospheric cut off with a captured Teddy out there in the extended around NS - it's a right of a passage for every season that the GGEM do this ...annnd, it signals a hard stop to the season 2 days later according to that model's imagination.

well...sure - we pretty much beat the ACE proof to death 45 days ago as a suspicion, and went on to substantiate it two weeks back - yup. Sally may RI here over the next several hours. Now .. I am not sitting in that scene where is NHC's spectacle of elaborate displays, replete with super-ensemble guided extra double top secret AI techniques at my disposal .. but just the coarser products available to the plebeian hoi polloi ( us ) all indicate Sally suddenly earning some 4 to 6 new pressure contours in the closing frames just before stuffing her way down the gullet of the Mississippi's mouth ... Hope it tastes good NOLA! I wonder if there is a 'RI model' ?? Last I knew there's not much that is well enough understood about the exact triggering kinematics for why some systems go ahead and implode their pressure wells, when other systems in seemingly identically favorable circumstances ( ...heh, like the entire 2020 season ) don't. But here with Sally, it seems to me that outlow is suddenly expanding rather nicely around the western semi-circle ... with those radial striations evident that morph when cloud patterns start getting 'stretched' outward. Meanwhile, hot towers are clearly tapped into the supreme thermal sourcing ... being that they are clearly halfway to the moon in elevation. Since the models were tree-ringing this bitch from about this point in time going forward through the next 18 hours anyway, and these evidences are now emerging ..they sort of support one another. I don't like 90 F water with shear dropping below 10 kts while models are showing that pressure evolution - they are not RI models... perhaps they are physically detecting without discretely constructing deeper system.

Paulette may not be done in the Basin .. some guidance’ perform a galaxy loop and hint zenith moving back S around 45W. Heh 18z guidance might be an early attempt at left correction just beginning there wet TD20 but we kind of saw that yesterday on the 18 and then abruptly it went the other way at 00 so we’ll see All models definitely make it a formidable cane though

Lol

It’s an early signaler but I suspect we run into gradient saturation and similar neggie interference patterning as it gets deeper .., Quickstart —> stalls and may be a late push ... been recurring theme

They're underrated ... Most people think of "Colorado Low" model transits through the heartland .. .Or straight up southern stream lows/QPF messes that run up and over a cold dome ...always special... Or S/stream waves that 'get captured' and phase - but that's/those are rare and getting rarer in a fast hemisphere anomaly that's become decadal or longer as a climate bias ...etc. But I'll take a potent 42 unit v-max cutting across S NJ with a concurrent upstream PNAP in progress any day. And that's the extreme version ... you don't even have to have that perfect a set up ...even flat waves with strong jet maxes can NJ Model the hell out of a nuke ... Dec 2005 is a superb example.

Bad feelin about NOLA anyway Sally on radar kinda appears to be developing a primitive eyewall .. not sure that could be so but Key West rad base reflectivity is showing an intense band near the core

Can't say I blame TPC for any reticence to pull the trigger on 95 L ... despite the fact that it presently can be objectively characterized as having a coherently closed circulation ... whirling around at some 40 kts! It's hard to tout a TC that's not even wearing a bikini bottom - There's yet again ... a sputtering problem - not just with this feature, across the whole Basin. It's funny that despite all peregrinations to date, as well as having endured the lies of various zealous guidance - take your pick .. they're all guilty at one cycle run or another - giving rise to said posting exuberance ... we find our selves right back here where we all started 2 weeks ago: sputtering as a plague that never went away. This season's just challenged severely at maintaining cohesive TC integrity ... we've developed one - it's really quite remarkable we had a major at all frankly. We'll see what would-be "Sally" can do. Since we've already endured a major category system closer to the Americas there may be some argument for precedence ...that we are escaping mitigation west of .. oh 70 W or so. But out there in the MDR... it's been a raging easterly shear anomaly the whole time it seems. It's like there is an actual jet stream, just like we observe in the W-E latitudes of the westerlies, but fire hosing E-W over 20 N amid the MDR. Don't get me started on why that is doing that... I have plenty of sci-fi writing skills and can root it enough real plausibility - Anyway, I am also taking note that we've lost the favorable hemispheric -scaled VV potential ... Despite the current MJO wave lacking significant coherence, the VVP found here, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ir_anim_monthly.shtml shows DVM flashed over the Basin ...which I have found to reasonably well correlate not so much to specific TCs, but as a development indicator. I am wondering if this may be related to why the recent modeling trends have sort of abandoned the activity rather abruptly over the last couple of days. The GGEM ..which is a trigger happy guidance to begin with, all but attempts to shut the season down recently. ... but all the guidance are backing off. The 00z Euro is definitely not nearly as emphatic with anything after going forward - completely discontinuing like a cruel social-media ghosting -

How does the Euro do that... It's got essentially a positive height anomaly S of 50 N some 70% of the time, yet manages to keep NE specifically colder than normal -

Quick thought on TD 19... Katrina sends messages from the grave not to count on southern Florida's interesting geology to be as inhibitory as the standard decay/inhibition forcing that occurs when TCs encounter land. Few may recall... Katrina actually maintained intensity and then gained 10kts of velocity strength prior to even leaving the southern Penn en route to the Loop Current ... That region is flat, and the ground is humid with deep soil moisture and most importantly, is not larger than the circulation domain of the cyclone, so arms and inflow jets can still access some latent heat source... particularly if TD 19 were to stay S of Miam and only partially eclipse .. I'm curious if this one may gain enough strength/momentum like Katrina did to withstand Florida's southern flat wet hot land... heh

This operational GFS run seems to try and 'back' winter in from the Maritimes ... eroding backward against the western ridge... each trough ablation carves the westerlies a little more SW... It's bringing an early winter over eastern Canada for starters...but for our proximity to that region of the hemisphere is sideswiping us with gradually more then just swiping across subsequent all three ... The last hard freezes. But the problem I have with that is particular to the GFS. It keeps engineering these ginormous gaps in the hypsometric depths to thickness ratios. The thickness will by physics always be less than the geo -p hgts, but... not 30 dam. wow ... 576 dm heights with a 546 thickness cutting underneath is appearing suspiciously too anxious to cool of the lower troposphere. I bet that normalizes some... That said, it's nesting error really...because the gist of early and heavy cold signaling is something that fits with recent decadal trends for autumns... ( springs, too in the lagged seasonal thing..), the former of which then gets compensated once the gradient really gets sloped later in DJF .. blah blab. Cross the bridge.. but in the mean time, it's like the GFS sniffs it out but then oversells it at the same time. interesting...

lol -

That region over the lower/outer Bahama is cool. It had no rotation this morning...now you can see how it's just started imploding

It's a hypothesis... but one that I think is growing in 'weight' - to use your term there, because the emerging observation pool of data supports it. Again, the last notable ENSO anomalies have been presenting less impacts around the world's climate impact known regions. And, I admit to some conceit in that I formulated this notion...of attenuating ENSO in GW years prior to observing these observations emerge - and it is tougher to ignore one's own idea when the environment starts bolting the scaffolding of the theoretics together - that's called the scientific process: formulate foresight; experimentation; data either supports or refutes said foresight... In this case, a super nino with comparatively blase planetary effects/affects was papered and refereed ...etc.. I think the crucial value of ENSO as a predictive tool was more important back prior to the expansion of the HC ...notable and discussed here ( note: CH 5 ): https://science2017.globalchange.gov/ If one absorbs that information and balances it across the last 20 years of existential atmospheric awareness ... I think they can sense a correlation .. mm hm.

Idiocracy is sweeping the technological helms of society .. People are not learning about reality anymore... They are "learning how to use tech" to pass tests and get ahead to get wealthy and laid... They don't think - and that is addling intellectual brain-trust of societies(y's) gears and buttons and levers, levels of decision and operations and everything else, start erroring and acting buggy... Eventually, no one will actually know how anything actually works... such that if something modulates in the onion layer of dependent tech that all this is built upon in strata -codependency framework, the whole thing risks coming to a halt while manuals are probed and people look up terminology in the dictionary along the way because they barely can read. ahaha. 'duh, how does the satellite work again ' ...' oh, you just just push this button, and a factory manufactures it somehow...and den ders dis system ...oh yeah! I think it's called Nassau and it's an island? it launches a rocket and ...." ... 'oh yeah, right - and then we push this button and a hurricane is caused by gay marriage'

Despite all "social injustice" and "economic iniquities" ... surplus conveniences allowing people to create drama and hostility instead of focusing energy on survival - does also sort of back us into a proof that if you take out that necessity, what remains is a douche-bag species. But, douche-bag is crass. Attempting something more intellectual: we are not as separated from the primal brain state of less evolved ( mentally ) species. I mean, everything else alive steals. Cheats. Murders. We just evolved morality meshing over eons to draw a cooperative approach to environmental/survival problem sharing/solving, because we are weak physically...with less built in protections and wherewithal through our descendancy. Cooperation and 'teamwork' is the human adaptation that really separates us from other animals that are non- anthropoda ( ants and bees). The catch-22 of technology in the "socio-technological evolutionary experiment" is that the advantages that we indulge and orgasm in, effectively cut the 750,000 years of evolutionary strings that were evolved along the way that we necessarily were dependent upon as our specific evolutionary need, to survive as a species. People risk becoming estranged and marginalized in such realms that turn off the instinct; depression ...and a spectrum psychological disorders become increasingly more prevalent ...and no one with an intelligence worth a salt would argue that lone shootings in shopping malls and schools is anything other than a social crisis precipitating out of that catch-22... ( my opinion on this particular evidence). Too many populous spanning too many generations ...living in relative convenience and provision accessibility is enabling the loss of the principles and virtuosities that kept communities of lore unilateral/bipartisan for their conception of what was really important, and how to function and operate as a collective cooperation. There was tension along the way. Things were never perfect. Civil wars are still a part of human history, and wars abroad for that matter... But, there is a separate emergent phenomenon of separatism that is occurring right down to the individual scope and scale.. Being accentuated and poked like a proverbial stick in a yellow jacket's nest, and it is tearing at the ( abused trope incoming - ) fabric of society(ies) threads by said convenience and provision addling. You didn't ask for this rant - no... And I don't claim to be a sociologist by education or trade. But, I agree with Steve there in 'principle' about stimulus ...namely, too much of it. I have not lived as long as our seniors in this social mediasphere destination...but, I am mid aged at this point. I have suffered enough decades along sides the vicissitudes of humanities shenanigans to have learned apriori ...and can do an intuitive arithmetic ...that throwing advantages and access at unfiltered and more times than not, unscrupulously mangled minds ... information at the 90th percentile of population en masse, is a catch-22 because the erosive power of enabling vitriol leads to this sort of social break down of norms...and unfortunately... when seating that phenomenon in a population surplus and other more veracious environmental threats looming as an over arcing thematic problem for actual life on this planet ( forget Humanity for -f sake! ), that only adds to sense of urgency to a world that needs 0 more stress. You know " being in the weeds " is a metaphor for when one is so caught up in a problem's whirling components, too much so. They can't see the bigger picture any longer and get sort of bogged down in the mire of unsolvability ... We are in the weeds as a world, and those weeds are tanned and waving in arid expanse of bereft conditional sociopathy, while a dry based thunder cloud spines blue pulses to the horizon ... All these various forms of aggrandized/fearing apocalypse'... no one would have thunk that technology could be the slow moving fires in which we currently burn.

Relative to normal, 'bath water' by hyperbole, yes. But that is crucial. Present climate is still being defined by data and arithmetic ..but, that doesn't mean the climate hasn't changed - it just means the conventions of empirical data have yet to formulate a proof. In this case...we've wend the Global paradigm into one where these modes of ENSO variances (along a mere 15 deg latitude, N-S of the Equator ) do not appear as significantly motivating forces in the gestalt ( synergistic hemispheric circulation ) of the atmosphere. By comparison to your 2nd bolded statement, those scalar measures are too comparatively small. It doesn't add up at just the observational scale ...where intuition, apriori experience, and education, all provide a kind of conceptual arithmetic - how can they? How does such a small band of wind driven SST anomalies, out force the entire expanse of the World's oceanic heat surplus - which is in fact measurable. My opinion out among the vitriol of this modern, "arrestingly incisive" era of the social mediaspheric hoi polloi .. means nothing, but, it seems increasingly more suspicious to me that the ENSO variances we are clocking are more like emerging the other way around... The imposing fractals of the outside total "gestaltic" (not a word) atmospheric eddy is driving these things into existence. And then of course folks, perhaps for being less aware .. see the warm or cool SSTs unfolding and start oopsing their seasonal forecast the wrong way. ... ha, that'd be awesome - might offer a nice explanation as to why seasonal outlooks, look opposite what happened - huh? Half tongue in cheek there We've already began to see this muting effect tho. The last couple of ENSO variances did not correlate as well, with observed Global impacts along normal climate problem regions blase. That super nino 5 years ago? Joke - ...that sucker shoulda altered Earth's orbital trajectory and sent Gravity Waves to the Andromeda galaxy by the drama of El Nino inherited from the 1990s press-kit. It sparked fireflies; because it occurred already in a sea of planetary warm spotlights. The 2nd bold should modulate the significance of the third bold. It does for me... Because of 2, toss 3. I toss all seasonal outlooks based upon ENSOs - perhaps out of hyperbolic frustration to some degree ( pun intended). In the "arithmetic" of balancing forces, we are in a new climate paradigm and it's just going to take a generation or two to sink in. ENSO is not nearly as important in the total modulation ... not when it is tucked squarely and securely deep inside a HC that has expanded enough to where said ENSO physics are not "as" interactive with the westerlies... It's going to be a rinse repeat winter... fast flow!!! fast fast fast. Probably, more at or even exceeded ground-based flight velocities being observed over the past several seasons - some close to sonic speeds yet again, reported by routine Global traffic demography... 8 to 12 isohypsotic gradients betwee SPVs and ambien heights < 40th parallel ... with 130 kts of wind and S/W's so overwhelmed by the large scale torque focusing, there is no mechanics left and they get lost in the flow and open up as yet more fast motion blown open QPF smears that strafe across continents at 40 to 60 kts... The interesting thing, ... bomb frequency will be down, but...those bombs that do form, will have hurricane pressure depths and 70 kts cold conveyor wind PGF responses - like what happened in NF last year... that was a classic high velocity compression bomb event. Thing is... how this drives seasonal snow vs rain, or precipitation totals is unclear. I don't think it does ... yet. I think we still have ample cold around for snow - if that's one focus. But I also think we favor more ice storms.

Bump ... I think we're seeing these large scale track influences playing out - ...Yeah, I know. Sucks to make the right, albeit hated call thus wantonly ignored call so early, dooming a whole season so early in the game. Any devotion based upon delusion and allowing one to be beguiled along the way into wasting more time waiting. You are only given what... 70 .. 80... 100 years if you're super lucky - thanks for charitably donating 2.5 months of your existence with zero chance for anything in return - gosh your kind. lol. Kidding but seriously, these sort violent recurve scenarios? They were easily envisioned as a seasonal limitation ... back in June really, as a base canvas p.o.s. season problem. The thing is, it really was interesting that three weak and or vestigial systems did come up along the coast. It was as though those were "getting lucky," as a less sophisticated labeling, because the governing biases as described above .. they just managed to temporarily break down during late June through early August during those passages. Transiently ...there were a favorable steering field scenarios that lasted in some case ... 2 days - just long enough to guide tracks closer in. But, that 'luck,' having occurred three times over, sort of set a precedence for 'getting lucky' in itself - ha. I gambler rolls sevens on a Fire bet at Craps three times, he's likely to draw other betters to the table. However, I find it harder to envision getting lucky going forward. The seasonal migration of heights has already began in the models. This is imposing an abruptly hostile ... really physically impossible look. You can see higher compression/gradient anomalies ( relative to this early in the season and endemic to the last 8 to 10 years of climate) already pressing south and lengthening the R-wave structures, increasing the velocities... all of which are manifesting as progressive synoptic wave behavior with winds so strong it makes the curvature harder ... that's what happens when you have fast flow. It stretches in the W-E coordinate...etc.. This is why storm behavior over the last 10 years have demoed more and more fast motion and shredded systems. It tends to more open QPF loading in models, moving quickly along... And those systems that do time and place jet cross sections exquisitely in a narrowed margin for error, do bomb, but are bombs moving 40 kts by a locations - odd.... digress, but typically 'bombs' slow down. Those Dec '92 type storms are getting increasingly harder to find.

you could go for a run and end up in the warm sector the speed that things movin' along with -lol

We're verifying the hydro concerns as planned ... just a bit higher up the coast than - Man... D.C.'s western beltway and 'burbs got clocked with training water-boarding downpours