Typhoon Tip

No, I don't believe you - move on... it happens.

I'm psyched I was able to strike a nerve like I did ...

Are we inside of four days ?

Mmm... it's abnormal to obsess in any realm - regardless of sport or weather. Not sure what you're after ...other than evasion of having to face the demon of it, which is what's really going on. But, you can't reach people or get them to be genuine about that, on -line... so yeah, fool's errand.

C'mon dude... one don't post " Thump, cut, cold, repeat. " around this particular group unless you're dancing around some sort of negative vibe. Whatever...

Forgive if this has already been brought up ... but, has anyone taken note of the extraordinary high pressure arming into the nation's midriff ? There's nodal 1048 to 1050 center in western WI this last hour... No wonder we're getting so many fantastic wind gust back east.

Just tuck into the enabling cocoon of time between Tues and Wed and pretend it doesn't exist...

That GFS looks like 4 or 5" of snow then warning ice for some band down in CT to NW RI to me. Just correcting for known model bias/llv resolution/handling with cold air and ageo wind is not likely allowing the GFS's cyclonic intrusion into boundary layer through RI that much. Probably end up "scalping" as we call it.. to a considerable distance NW of that zr axis. That's just the look of this one run.

Why is that bad? seriously...this is a good op for delving deeper into the murky psychology of 'why this crap matters' so much ... If it snows 4 or 5" ...then cuts to sleet and freezing rain, that's fine... Or should be - I'm starting to really get a loss to figure out what it is people are after. I think it's a conditioning issue... IF we had endured a steady diet of snowy events... this would be a pleasant diversion? But, since we have not experienced, ...pretty much any exciting winter of modeling histrionics combined with fruitfully snowing outputs... this is some kind of intolerable asshole event. ..Funny watching en mass, sheep be herded along by the vicissitudes of modeling AI - seems like it... Reality check ...for me anyway. If it snows 4 or 5" and then we get advisory level icing over top, that's fascinating phenomenon period.

Ah ha ha... meh, it's true though... The perennial solar minimum ends tomorrow why is it ... serious question: why is that just because someone writes about ...losing interest in the middle of February, that sparks smoldering resentment ... merely cloaked in good spirited ribbing? who cares? It's weird ... not sure what the mechanism is ... As though my or anyone else losing interest is a bad omen for one's own shattering illusion I guess

Ha! ...yeah, preachin' to the quire. Frankly, I tend to start losing my grip on winter enthusiasm as I approach the ides of February anyway... And, that is particularly going to be true in bent over, viciously unrelenting kosmik dildo winters like this one - it's going to average right up there in the bottom list if it goes on to end this way. Starting to get easier, if perhaps Stockholm Syndrome ... to foresee this just blithely attenuating out to tepid days interrupted by BD face smacks. Oy. I dunno... In all seriousness, there are too many big Marches in the annuls... I mean, this is not a prediction, but the fact of the matter is...we don't know - we don't know if this could be one of those Marches.... Let alone, we still got 20 days of this month... Ah, I get it - folks that vest in this emotionally have frustrations (even anger) and relying upon this winter? It's really like the horrible crush you had on the biggest ..uh, enter adjective here ... in high school. I mean, she gets to keep giving you cause to not let go, ...and you couldn't because you were compelled...

Possibly 4" of snow .... .25" of sleet... . .3" of accreted ZR...

Yeah... My easiest correction with the mid week deal is that regardless of what model, 0 of them will absolutely handle the lower thicknesses of the troposphere. I've said this many times before; that's fact. They can't - it's mathematically impossible for them to resolve the jagged nature of the tactility between the air and land, and what is called the turbulent "Ekman boundary" - where turbulent drag exists. ... Oh, they can get to within the 90th percentile in a WSW deeply mixed barotropic June air mass approaching 90 F ... but that resolution will never approach that level of accuracy in a situation like the context of mid week. ( (cold air ends up underneath warm air ) + (Ekman fuzziness) ) / 2 = higher degree of error as to where the frontal position in that circumstance will truly be. That 90th percentile clarity of June drops precipitously when it comes to a polar high jamming cold back-filling air mass into the conduit region E of the Berks'/Greens and Whites... This next system should be even more convincingly icy than the last, with more obviously focused ageostrophic wind. If the elevated kinematics of warm transport weakens...say, because the system does find an anomalously stretched/elongation ..and concomitant weakening push aloft, the iciness gets more PL and snow along that spectrum. But as is? I don't care what met says what ... when > 70 % of a cyclostrophic energy is conserved over Lake Huron with a cold wedge over Quebec, you're probabilities are limited. It's been an interesting year of the models going out of their way to abut clad reasoning ...so, it'll be interesting to see the Euro now pull off the physically impossible snow bomb

Not singling anyone out ... but this thread has a demonstratively, emo-guided tenor about it. But, I mean, more so than the normal shenanigans of the "razor sharp scientific insight" we commonly soak in with the public domain spaces. Partially evidenced by the lack of counter-point discussion to this event .. And no - non-formulaic bitch flippancy ... doesn't count as objective counter-point discussion. More likely, it reflects the lack this winter's unrelenting anti-climatic (puns always intended...), boring cinema that is eroding patience. I understand. It's out of desperation/withdraws ... I have sympathy for the addictive behavior - and it really is like that. Folks need their high ... There is some kind of charge .. or "high," individuals of the collective seem to experience when model rolls out bomb (it is hoped...) . I've opined in the past ... just how much I believe (and still do) that the run-up modeling has become as important if not more so, than the actual event itself. It's hard to prove...I just know, if the winter snowed 70 total inches, and the models missed every storm, the collective enthusiast-tenor would be tepid about the winter in general. But ... if the winter snowed 70" ...and there were three historic bombs held in epic proportions across very many modeling solutions, that same winter scores an A! Anyway, this event to me has never sat right... But, I admit that I'm a bit at a loss, too.. I just don't see this as any kind of typology at all. My assessment isn't optimistic beyond ice .. but we'll see. I mentioned the following many pages/few days ago in the general Feb discussion... I don't see that much has changed: 1 .. .being that the flow is less than ideal for bombs - I agree with that. We don't have a more text book sloped/meridian flow ...tumbling a S/W from the top shelf with favorable W-E wave spacing setting it's greatest amplitude sights on the lower OV to MA regions.. What the Euro was doing was "stretching" the flow in the prior runs... Now, it seems to be stretching less; but, that means that the ridge position still being out along or even slightly W of the west coast.. .puts the primary wind-up region through the Lakes, and so removing the stretch it ends up west.. 2 ... it enters a plausible clue to GFS error ..in that one of its peccadilloes is that it runs a stretched/stretching/progressive bias in the mid and extended range. This is noted by NCEP and modeling et large. Not really debatable as it's an empirically measured bias in this particular model. Which... unfortunately could very well be re-introducing too much coastal/Miller B detection ..because its not supposed to have extended its mechanics that far E in the first place. The last 24 hours of modeling seems to really be playing out these above two points with eerily exacting [disappointment]. I mean I don't really care to take recognition for pointing this out...those that point out counter/offset negative impressions that are right, so rarely do in the court of public opinion... But, sufficed it is to say, the only thing looking at this parade of events they have going for them is the nuanced timing of polar high pressure over SE Canada. Otherwise, the genera of the synoptic hemisphere (and this is also heavily been suggested by the GEFs derivatives by the way (...you know? tele-f'n-connectors? ) ) really doesn't support more text-book appeals. We unfortunately have to boot-leg cobble events out of luck ... in an unlucky circumstance. ha! I like that... The next system down wind falls to the same uncertainty sloped toward disappointment, too - unless things change at a rudimentary level.

RELAX ...and yeah ( now that you mention ) ...many of you probably should. That said, I wasn't sure if there was some ongoing conversation about them and just asking. Posting them won't make the pattern change or produce model bombs any quicker - we know where to find them... Post the link. Otherwise, it's clutter

I dunno yeah it just is clutter... It defeats the purpose of me coming in here ...and getting an essence of the model runs by scanning the tenor when I'm wading through endless sheets of teleconnectors, particularly when posting the link should be sufficient - so, admittedly ...my bringing it up is not entirely non-self-absorbed ( ) ...still, we know where to find them. If someone needs to reference a specific about one of them and/or perhaps annotate a chart that's understandable... but other than that relative infrequent need, this is canvasing the thread -

Why are these teleconnection products being posted every cycle they run ?

mm.... premature threadulation ...

Boy ...when evaluating it's parallel run ... and then also comparing that 06z GFS operational run to all other guidance types and derivatives therein ... it becomes clearer than ever just how much that solution is like pouring diarrhea into a fan and then trying to find reasons for the pattern that is sprayed on the wall ... That's how much use that look has ... It's really almost more than figuratively as though that run was completely sprung out of fractals and damped out all empirical inputs as it processed. If some how some way the future bodes well for that solution that so be it...

But look what's going on with that whole pan-wide construct... Granted ...the other models did trend ...for lack of better expression, 'more optimistic' too, but they're all trying to do the same thing in my estimation - stretching the field into the longitudinal coordinate anomalously far. I think one way to correct for that look might be to make the wave its self weaker - which may be happening anyway, because as you've noted ...the primary is less torqued up .. interesting. Can seem to buy a western ridge like ...on land this year, huh

well... that's just at a glance... looking at particulars that's probably snow going over to everything from ZR to PL to those aggregated noodle bombs as though parachutes were just to big to fully melt... those kinda 'ktichen sink' events can be fun too though... again, preference here is for activity ... don't care to pine over what that is.

Euro's a parade of icing events...

That was essentially an exact 32.0 icing event ... It was transfixing to geek out and watch the temp at my place bounce around between 31.9 and 32.1 all night while we couldn't really get icing underway. Give or take a tick up or two down from that point obvioiusly dictated who got what ... but it was about as precisely marginal as could be quantized in the average. Not to make it an IMBY thing but ... where I live in Ayer is pretty closely adjacent to the main thoroughfare of the town, where there are typical 1930s brick buildings housing small businesses and restaurants .. quintessential small town Massachusetts fair.. But I'm thinking the air mass was so marginal that the brick and mortar and street setting, combined with artificial heat sourcing may have been enough, by decimals, too warm. I'm pretty deep inland so ... coastal causality is removed and as it were... I had 0 accretion visible amid the foliage of my street as I left for work right around the time the dawn's dimmer switch was rising ... but by the time I was climbing the subtle hills through Fort Devens there was more in the way of 'glow' about the tree limbs with a bit of evergreen sag. Then, heading west down Rt 2, the glow become more obvious ...and a bit more sagging. It never really got any more impressive than that however ... all the way south thru mid state on 190 and east down 290... through Shrewbury on 140 S.. Although, in Shrewbury center at that light there was more icicles and evidence that it was more efficient at that location.. Indeed, a glance at the dash thermometer had that point in time the coldest for the trip at 31 F. Otherwise, the temp was flopping around between 32 and 34 as I came down. Right now out the office windwos it still glowing in the trees ... it's pithy murk out there too...

Finally flipped to 31.6. Just starting shard on flat surfaces.