Typhoon Tip

Yeah...more likely than not, and intuitively fitting ... the return rate increased frequency of spike events - as you implied - is causally in the same footing. It's just a fact of life and the Earth now... and going forward. Folks need to get with the program. This shit's going to get more, not less, common if if if if if the current hockey stick climate shit continues to stink up the works. If something happens to offset... sure, that discussion takes place. But right now? There seem to be two factors with no compensators: sun, GW ... By the way, a volcano erupts near the Equator... good start.

The impetus there was "...My hypothesis .." The Hadley Cell stuff, ..yeah, that is bigger than me and my speculations: it is heavily scienced(ing) and on-going, and papered, and is unilaterally in the current zeitgeist of research - which is just not as privy at the level/station of social media, no. I have a link on my work PC that connects to a plethora on the subject matter. But, it's just something I have noticed wrt to our climate... personally. It seems more and more as the years go by, our base-line isn't as dependable; in the absence EPO loading... Put it this way, we used to be more latitude reliant ...we didn't have to worry as much about mass-cold because we were blessed by Earth's geometry. Heh. That seems to be getting harder to do.

I'm interested in how this thing does in that model. There's some growing sort of ...aversion to the Euro call it ( heh ), and this scenario has sort of put it on a stage with lime light - with no peers to support it ( other than the NAVGEM ...uh...), it's making a spectacle out of that test.

It's just feeding my hypothesis that we've already crossed(ing) a climate threshold ...just not one very well identified, because climate is still a learning curve everywhere and all dimensions, anyway. But, it seems as years go by, we either have to have a -EPO preceding or in the temporal neighborhood, are we're too warm for Currier&Ives... like, period. Today is obviously a different thing altogether and I've spent time explaining it to a empty room already, so wont' bother. But... it's like it's getting increasingly more suspiciously coherent ( call it ..) that unless we're directly dumping cold into the 40th parallel, we're flopping over too warm for snow more readily/regularly.

It's almost too much to expect the temperature will correct down to normalcy once the departure is this deep and lengthy... This warmth is no spike... It's two days of it... with a blue flame night in between. That's more than southerly gale WCB type of arrangement. Anyway, the system on Thursday is still present on the Euro but it's too warm. This isn't a cool week. We're struggling with a statically locked 42 N, 850 mb 0C isotherm the whole way.

Yeah.... I don't choose to take sides/ignite vitriol over Logan's readings, but today may be a bad day to strike up contention when it's the same f'n temperature like everywhere Or close enough that an offshore component out of 70 F should conceptually do a 72 there..? Just wonderin' It may be a situ where the error - if proven to exist beyond the local consensus' suspicion - tends to manifest in certain ranges and settings? I know the FIT used to run suspicious DP numbers ...and I used rail on about it, but then there was a quiet fix installed and they been better since 2010 - not because of me...just saying... Sometimes things there have band widths of physical parametrics where the error occurs, and in other environmental conditions, they don't..

yeah..I get it - Tell Don ... I'm okay with it suspicion

Ha ha... man... 'Magine goin' 31 above climo on July 10

71 at mi casa up here along rt 2 I'm only mentioning because there's contention among Mets and privy users over the veracity of Logan's readings...

It's almost comically absurd looking at these daily dep columns on NWS' climo site. +29 at HFD yesterday... +31 at ORH ... like, really? Today would probably go down as extra special double top secret strange ... if it weren't for the fact that we're mostly going to put up a bootleg, midnight low 11:58 pm style... I think anyway... geez, I was assuming but now that I think about it, I haven't even looked.

I got 70, 69 and 71 at the home-stations within a mile of mi casa and ... heh, hate to say, it is definitely either 70, 69 or 71 out there... Boston/Logan may have an issue with it's instrumentation - but I keep seeing it match enough sites that despite not being merely designated official ( in the latter sense ) that's a lot of weight there. Yeah, insane event - ... pretty high confident it doesn't register in folks' minds as a phenomenon, but it qualifies... My wind has died off... The sky is open and blue with picturesque cu... 70.5 on January 12

Actually ...very close structurally/overall to being a season defining event for much of the the region, NNE to the Long Island actually... That front-side high pressure is probably and most advisably being eroded to prodigiously as it is, relative to this and prior runs ( btw on the latter), and an easy assumed correction is to force secondary's hand perhaps a critical 6 hours sooner. Anyway, I like how 156 to 164 hours ..the low ...allllllmost stalls. Really close. We see at 500 mb right there, there's an interval of proficient phasing ..if only suggested in the subtleties of the isohypsotic behavior. I mean it overall just misses a 6 hour stall with a menacing beast, 50 naut miles E of Cape Ann at 160 hours ... Double edged sword there. In one respect, you say at 164 hours, the model's too prone to permutation and future guidance won't do that... But on the other side, if it were showing at 48 hours out, it'd be a higher confidence 'near miss'... If there were ever a better scenario where 'stay tuned' were more apropos, heh.. But that's also being greeding. This thing looks like Rt 2 stays snow, and probably 20+ inches of it too.... And an easy correct - for me, given that high pressure and no way in hell that's leaving the critical thickness plumb that easily - is probably a scalp bomb with a band of icing yet beneath that down in CT.. if this were the only model run

Mm...yeah, I get it. But, I don't think the model has really earned a 'suck this year' rep, either. I think there is a willingness to shine that light on the model...because it handed an iffy performance on a snow storm, and that's like the movie "Rounders," when Matt Damon's character's narrative says, "Few people remember the big pots they've won... but everyone remembers the tough beats where they lost it all" Folks in this engagement/hobby of drug use ...they don't handle losses too well-adjusted, and will tend to remember those with more shimmering alacrity than the mundane monotony of the day to day Euro, which still performs at very good levels. Just my take on things... I need more glaring busts before I'm willing to take the Euro down.

To mention..the S/W in question for Thursday is relaying off the Pac on a flat amplitude trajectory, passing a 100 kt 500 mb jet max S of ORD just 30 hours later... That's not typically a set up that lends to model accuracy...

I stand corrected, Hazey... you did get replies... All spurning and neg-head hahaha

you may not get many replies as that image is clearly good for you ...and blase for New England... But yeah, I saw that...and still suggests that D4/5 is on the table. Seems there is reticence to accept and talk about that on the forum; not sure what the reasoning is there. Seems there is obsession with the one after..which yeah, bears some interesting complexion, but... the 00z Euro solution would probably at least give 1-3 or even 3-5" band in with crashing heights down our way. Ah hell... we need this 12z run to start helping out from other sources.. The Euro's proven its fallibility at other times enough this season not to hang hats on it.

I was actually beginning to entertain the notion that the EPO part of this may be less impressive or discernibly changing ( but will some of course...) compared to moving the PNA from -5 SD to +1 .. 6 pt change in a domain that is truly awesome in size-scale and dimension must simply by proxy of mass alone, conjure opinions for a broad systemic change in the circulation structure over at least this side of the Hemisphere. And it's probable that big of a change has some roots in the Indian Ocean/Asian input, too... considering we are seeing an MJO wave that is robustly modeled, in all agencies, to press through Ph 6 and lurch into Phase 7/8... probably as the curve unfurls in time, we'll see that wrap around toward 1 ( my hunch ) ... These are indicators that tropical forcing is syncing up with the mid latitudes in a constructive way. So, a better/robuster -EPO signal may yet also materialize - I'd bide time on that. But the PNA is definitely correlated with the MJO as it being modeled heading into week two. What is fascinating to me, is trying to figure out which leads which/chicken and egg. Because it almost looks like pure dice roll-timing thing ... They seem to be happening in tandem. Also, I'd be on the look-out for emerging -AO signals if that has not already begun. If the mid latitudes/MJO sync up...that increases cyclone genesis along mid latitude conveyors, and that enhances the Ferrel trade flow/easterly trajectories below the rim of the polar vortex.... which by physics weakens the vortex and blocking nodes tend to result.

This event, and it is an "event" in my mind ... has a furtive characteristic to it, that tops everything on the list. The 'SE ridge' that is typically if not more obscured at times, present during these warm episodes in the distant past, is much more than just that in present era. Heights over a vast, disturbingly large circumvallate of the SW Atlantic basin, are over 594 dam ... IN JANUARY... At least in my tenure on this planet.. I have never seen that before. What I believe is happening, which lends to this being something notable enough .. is that the R-wave patterning has happened to come into a superposition with the HC expansion, in a constructive wave interference. The two together are creating a sort of synergistic feed-back and we're seeing a 'rogue-ridge' signal in the atmosphere. Perhaps indirectly/transitively related to that ... in all guidance, we spend the next two days, post this pallid fropa this morning, with a polar high rolling over top (N!) through eastern Ontario, yet the 850 mb 0C isotherm struggles S of a BUF-BOS latitude? In January no less... As an aside, I've opined over in the climate forum upon multiple compositions that are too long for the attention span modern world social media ... how Americans have been living a kind of charmed existence during this entrance era of CC's pernicious effect. In effect, we are affectedly being protected from sensible awareness of it. Oh some of us do sense and observe changes, but those examples are far more subtle than they are gross enough displays, such as burning continents down-under. Which I'm sure the counter-arguing shimmeral "moral" base is currently composing a well-formed paper that it's only happened because of man's prevention of "normalcy" - which in partial truth, allow them to get away with it... We would be rarer to find summer heights over such a vast area of the SW Atlantic Basin persisting so long between 594 to 600 dm; typically getting a circumvallate of say 590 ( which seems like a minor difference to lay-folk but is an important physical sensitivity ) would roast the population mecca, presaging or in tandem, an 88 to 96 heat wave from the els of the eastern cordillera to the I-95 corridor. If this super-position event taking place now, happens May 10 through August 10? ( which I contend merely hasn't ... yet) we're talking 103 to 110 at Logan And don't think that can't happen ( not you per se - the 'royal yous'). There would probably be a historic heat wave that presses the physical ceiling and just parks the dailies at 107, with lows of 90 ...because despite all ..the sun is a constant but etc...etc.. cross that bridge. The low temperatures remaining elevated is where the ballast of GW is being noted, btw/is the point. We are doing a kind of 'perfect storm' R-wave timing over the tapestry of bloated HC, a constructive wave interference event. We are seeing it happen at a time of year that only instills a sense of frolic elation for 90% of society that steps out with a cup of coffee and goes, Ahh. While of course sending the remainder dystopian winter storm zealots like us to distraction ... Neither experience lends very well to "consequence" experience of GW, not in a species that is intrinsically blithe to the point of paralysis at reacting to any crisis that isn't directly appealing to the senses as hardship. I feel pretty highly confident, snark and resentment overtones aside... ( which I'm aware I come of that way about this particular subject matter - but that's for dark humor/entertainment and sarcasm...blah blah ), that this warming event happens in 1900, 1950, 1990, and 2020, but now? It is one that is getting a CC feed-back, and given enough sophistication in re-analysis, would prove that way. I know this is a historic Bermuda ridge for this time of year...and probably is in the top 10 percentile in summer, just existentialism, and probably a-priori. But, nuances in the flow and noise keep us from 70 ... okay... that's part of the furtive way in which we're being spared the burden too often.

Of course ...the Euro tried to signal that a month ago and it didn't happen. So... I think in this case though, there are attendant clues that may lend credence to the broader -scoped paradigm shift.

Take a look at the 12z operational Euro ... and note days 7 - 10 on that run, from SE of Hawaii all the way around to S of Bermuda off the U.S. SE Coast along/within that lower latitude belt. Notice the heights are falling ( finally) ..shedding some +4 + +6 dm anomalies ? That is a recession of the Hadely Cell modeled in the dailies right there... and I suggest the NAO starts to show some signs of switching modes ( or more sustainably/chances in doing so..) if/when that happens, because that in the deep south, in a transitive sense, will couple with a the AO and begin to pull that index down, with relaxing(er) mid latitude flows, and the onset of blocking also over Kamch., Alaska across the polar arc to Scandinavia et al actually... That's the integral. The AO having wended it's way demonstratively positive the way it has, is purely a function of the previous HC invading the lower Ferrel Cell... and guess what, we now see a very robust phase 7-8-1-2 in the MJO from all agency. These phases tend to correlate with the -AO, as they lend to storm/cyclone field activation along the interface of the HC/Ferrel cell latitudes... basically, 40th parallel ( ) ... and that means the Ferrel trade/Easterlies along 60 N are enhanced... and that's also concomitant with -AO. Starting to see the puzzle come together, and when I saw that balloon pop and deflate on the 12z Euro...that was like canary in the coal mine I was looking for - Yeah, February is a whole 'nother paradigm if these signals continue to emerge - they'll parlay into very interesting verifications. And it may happen before the end of this month, too.

I would have loved to have seen... I heard/read about it, but I would have been playing on that like a 10 year old if I was there...

Mm.. Thursday is still on the table in my opinion. As is, the 00z operational mean is a high latitude NJ model solution - which is true, whether it snows in one's backyard or not. This wave is flat, open and potent, and zipping along into and through region with reasonably well-established baroclinicy. There was a coherent, albeit small, adjustment south in the total wave -space translation on this 00z cycle, across the board, which opens the door ( particularly in the GGEM ) for more in the way of column collapse/dynamic to rip a snow burst for several hours in the latter half of this fast mover. In fact, the one 3 ..4 days later that's got folks attention, really is the same sort of scenario. Two NJ modelers ... perhaps taking a slightly biased northerly route, but monitor - Which by the way, shifting storm tracks N is part of the empirical observation spectrum seen around the N. Hemisphere noted over the last 20 years of CC but...we'll let that poke of the hornets nest run it's buzzing denial and rage - Anyway, that doesn't mean Thursday or the one after can't adjust that much more S. The Euro actually doesn't appear - to me - like it can actually get from it's 120 to 144 hour circumstances ( charts ) without at least some column collapse as well. D.E.M. looks good for an event either way. 06z GFS was a distraction, but I'm less concerned for that pending continuity so we'll see... The 00z individual members of the GEFs had some bona fide 10 to 14" looking NJ lows, too. P006, 1, 4 ... 7, 9 all these were getting it done, and I'm pretty sure that is a tick more aggressive compared to what I saw in the 12z suite. So, still on the table... so needs some work, but not a loss yet.

Man, that GGEM solution won't give up on the GOM bomb idea... Really stem wounds that into NS' season defining event.

heh...if today's any indicator, warm wants might consider this warm up to be stunted into a more vertical sounding orientation and not fully realizing the dry adiabats. Maybe... we'll see. There may be a kind of diffused warm frontal boundary in this and getting S of that tomorrow may open things up a bit, but these clouds jammed in seemingly with sun up and despite the already +4 to +6 at 850 mb, we're 44 and struggling to rise in annoying knuckles-cold

OR better yet .... we'll get some lead time frame event that's just not really associated with these large scale changes but just part of the on-going noise of atmospheric parlance...and folks will be like, 'nice ...didn't have to wait that long for the -EPO'