Typhoon Tip

Well you know, if it is that consistent it's probably something systemically mechanical about the physical handling of flow entities by the models, et al. I saw a notification/post on LinkedIn the other day by some Met that's managed into my network but whom I have no formal affiliation to - such is usually the case for anyone in the social media realm. He presented a model verification comparison between the Euro and GFS for beyond D5; it was astounding how similar they were over our quatrahemispheric scope, AND, how awful they were. Way worse than the collective no-how of operational Met and/or educated enthusiasm are really used to in personal/common experience. So, what is it ? I think it's the fast flow man. I see a plausible-causal relationship there, because velocity 'around' wave spaces in the atmosphere, may not be handled/integrating properly with velocities 'inside' the wave spaces. Maybe the the failure is in the diabatic vs adiabatic thermodynamics and latent heat after condensation then releasing to meld into larger surrounding R-wave phenomenon .. I can come up with plausible, convincing science fiction that may or may not be proven more veracious than not. But, one thing I have noticed about storm-modeled behavior is: regardless of cyclone tracking in guidance, they are always over-amplified in the D5+ compared to what has transpired, save for a few sporadic bombs ( NF a month back ... Etc. ) or the deal up in the UK last week. The Euro nailed the NF low some 6.5 days out - I know, because I diligently monitored that CCB event because the model kept putting out like 20 isobars spread out over 200 miles and it was fantastic modeling cinema to see that. One could have taken a veritable Sharpie to the weather chart, and just drawn a big fat black ink channel - sure enough...they were sustaining Category 2 shattered ice froth. Not sure how the models handled the UK event/cyclone leading....My hunch is they did reasonably to above normal. Usually ( you know all this...just arm-chair quarterbacking over coffee) big deep mechanically exhaustive bombs have equally charming leading indicators, so the models tend to see those early. Like primitive by comparison, the 1993 so-dubbed "Super Storm" I recall as much as 10 days ahead and TWC was airing how the ensembles of the MRF were beginning to "hint at something very large in the atmosphere" ( I literally can still hear it in my head). And, well, it never really deviated after that. That even was like an 'atmospheric rogue-wave' but I digress... I think the clue to the "nothing has worked out" appears to be hidden in the daily function modeling programs, probably right down to the geo-physical scale, too. Because they are all doing it, and never not doing it... again, save of extremes, suggesting there are inabilities or crude aspects lurking in the models that are acting like "limitation rails" Fast flows tend to strip storm depth because the speed out paces the Coriolis parameter...and that's the stretching of the field - well, stretched fields mean less curvature, so we end up negating the curvature term in the difluence ... --> mass balance handling error emerges and the models may be introducing too much curvature for fast flow out in time, and then correcting ...even sort of surreptitiously flatter, then ends up with more progressive weakening trends. That sets up a whole host of other issues, because a weaker system then interacts ( integral above? ) with the surrounding field differently in terms of positive or negative/constructive/destructive feedbacks... and on and so on.... Another sort of 'gestaltian' perspective ...as an indirect metric perhaps pertaining to this: the number of record setting intercontinental ground-based velocities being reported by various commercial airline flights. Seems there is a weird kind of emergent non-correlating coincidence between the frequency of those being reported, and the dimming skill of the models over recent years. It seems there is some tantalizing evidence that links velocities of the planetary maelstrom to the modeling performance in the mid ranges.

LOL ... you know it's tru tho. The euro does this too to me at times. I catch it f-ing up with all this stuff, and then the verification comes out and it's in the lead. Whaaa I could argue the ICON did better for f-sake. jesus. I think what it is is that the verification is a Globally integrated scoring? Contrasting, we are focused over N/America; maybe there is something about that handling. I bet if someone clever created a Global color coded blue and red, bad versus good, performance... there would be a nazy blue hole over Cincinnati for D6, but the model would be salmon glory everywhere else.. kidding to some degree -

This is exactly how this impressed me this morning at dawn while clearing the hood of the car and windows. Spring glop. The air really smelled more like rain, and had the faux mild appeal to it, while as you say the trees and so forth were burdened with that cake.

Honestly ... I jumped into the middle of an on-going conversation. Scott's talking about it triggering this or that, but I was not the source or start for that snow vs CC. wtf man Fact of that matter is, this Hadley Cell expansion stuff is real. It is empirical, it is researched and continues to be so, and the implications of those studies absolutely is going to rub some folks the wrong way. I can't do anything about that. And, if this social-media platform needs objective usefulness, we have to bring real topical science to bear. I think when this particular rendition split off the culture was never intended to be the same - that much is clear. Once we started registering penny prophet per frame rates and mouse click ... heh. My point is heading toward wondering if that's even possible here in this vision. Be that as it may, I don't care to specifically get into why people get rubbed the wrong way - there's absolutely no way to positively influence one's political agenda, much less 'personal' agenda, amidst a public-anonymity of cadence-less, expression devoid Internet, and in fact, negative is so overwhelming favored there's just no usefulness to engaging. But that vitriol that was triggered ...? sorry that strikes me as people not liking certain realities and lashing out at objective source work. You got some loose canons in here my friend. Which btw ... had nothing to do with anything other that statistical mechanics and method for scatter plotting .. but, when volatility gets to a certain tenderness merely looking at the needle will cause people to pop

heh ..would it have helped if I caboosed that the missive with the prepositional phrase, " ...in February" ?

http://koeppen-geiger.vu-wien.ac.at/present.htm

Keeping this system narrow and more W-E oriented might offset the ' no high'

Regression has a formal statistical method, and the point was, ...when the mean of the scatter plots don't resemble a straight line, the linearity of it is less dependable. That's the only point I was concerned with there.. As far as CC and snow it's thermodynamically unavoidable that warming leads to greater latent heat/WV content available to precipitating physics. Can't be argued. What becomes prognostic ... as we start getting greater snows during increasing decimals and whole degree average T's, is when do. ( most likely ...) we trip over a phase transition sort of threshold and those systems just end up rainers more and more and more. At which time, the snow averages start declining. We may not be that far along, just sayin'. I was thinking about this yesterday and last evening out of boredom I did some quick comparisons, this winter vs climate zones and it appears we are having a winter more like typology somewhere in mid Jersey for temperatures. That's too close to noise to be blamed on CC, but the problem is that statement " to be blamed on" is stupid - because what it evades is that CC is there at all times. It's really a matter of whether a pattern is sufficiently anomalous to more or less mask it.

Not to be a prig but based on what ... outmoded climate norms? Good luck.. When the CC isn't just changing it is by all present observation 'accelerating' in doing so,.. oops The gist of your point is clad though - I get it

Not sure about 'preview' per se ...but, when the whole hemispheric eye-balled integral results in solidly above normal heights, that becomes a hemispheric problem

Yeah... 41 F with mist and light rain unrelenting is chilly

Mah... it's stimulation withdrawal syndrome ( or is it 'withdraw' ?) The more dystopian entertainment people get, anything less makes them feel 'empty' because acclimation means they're not being accelerated to the same sense of urgency - which they use that drama to replace real values systemically missing from their lives ( as an add-on (btw) ). Even in the histrionic din of upped dramatic storm frequency ...there's going to be periods of relative offset quiescence ..and folks are just going to have to get the shakes we guess.

What's wrong with this picture ..

Funny how folks get engaged in this, what really amounts to a veritable support-group therapy/ social media outlet, then...act surprised when people are less than entirely analytic about stuff. I've really begun to question the lucidity of > 50 % usership that regulars here. These are individuals that have tendency for attachment disorder ( feel empty otherwise..), and use what is actually ultimately going to be unfulfilling and non-dependable for emotional release ( by way of channeling through the less likely to succeed weather drama ) - prophetic failure, folks. Just to replay tapes - transference. Hint, when J. Q. poster says statements like this ( random made up example to make a point ): "I don't care anymore. I'm tuned out and have accepted this isn't our year. Sure, I wouldn't mind the big event to bring it back to life but ...blah blah blah .." that is called 'bargaining.' If that person really believed the first part of this sentiment, they would not write the 2nd part in bold. So it is disingenuous and eye-rolling. Simple truth is, folks should not channel joy fulfillment through 'modeling cinema' - ...much less, whether the day weather is x y or z. It's ludicrous. It's a support circuit for those who have mood deficiency based upon SAD or -SAD or climate derivatives, and that's just not a analytic engagement. And no I am not immune to this - I'm in here too.. But I will absolutely never lie to my self.. My biggest fear in reality and life, is not knowing what either is, and that starts when one cannot reflect upon how they fit into either. So yeah...I've succumb to this crap too.

No idea who's said what so all credit conferred ... Re this 12z NAM: 48047989456 -0511 051110 49000003 54051986356 -1613 023507 45010000 These particular numerals bold'ed are the 980, 900, and 800 mb level temperatures over Logan off the old standard 'FOUS'. Their interpretation do not match the ptype graphics, which show predominately rain after a brief pulse of snow, S of the VT/NH border. These profiles would scalp/IP moderately, then flip to isothermal 0 C snow and with the synopsis featuring a system that is stretched longitudinally biased that should limit the very high elevation intrusion of warm layer; I do not believe liquid falls (only) as near as the western subburbs of the city of Boston, where is either freezing rain in that ~ .5 QPF but is more likely big aggregates

Bit of a Norlan look there

Euro looked N with IP axis comparing hr 72 to previous tho S VT NH

The perennial solar min ends today ... so it begins Kevin's favorite time of the year when sunny days warm the interior of cars almost immediately more noticeable. And if there were a snow pack the eat back factor kicks into higher gear. For me this is more symbolic of the beginning of transition season .. tho obviously seldom does the winter give up without a fight .. and some years that protracts deep into March. You just have to accept inevitability on a dwindlng hope curve of ever lower probability. Probability is never 0% ... in 100 years you get 1977, May. In 1,000 yrs (say) perhaps you'll even get one in June. 20 yrs for post St Patty's Day Aprils etc... - so people wisely or stupidly set their expectations accordingly.. Those are virtuals to make the point. And the given year's tenor certainly plays into human woe-is-me factor too

There's not much room for that sort of 'spooky action at a distance,' poetic reward for this journey if the flow doesn't relax, tho. If it doesn't the probability becomes quite remote

those eastern Canadian cold delivery scenarios have been over charted all season -not surprising.The others will probably back off some too in lieu of progressive characteristic of the flow correcting matters, leaving the region with pedestrian nape nip and some hurried walks across parking lot type cold.

.35" rain padded so far

it'll end up the st lawrence seaway

yeah... forced GW mapped up under boreal winter height hemispheres 'ill tend to do that

https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/british-airways-fast-flight-scli-intl-gbr/index.html

Yeah, climate change is a hoax... it's amazing how that 150 years of empirical evidence has been faked. I don't understand why humanity can't just accept the dark society's gag reels of landing on the moon, dinosaurs, and climate change - yet they keep getting sucked into the conspiracy to fake science. Unreal -