Typhoon Tip

not convincing, no

yeah, 90 KFIT/KASH and locally around town... D1 of this ...

I don't think we're in a TC drought - per se ... - in New England. Unless this has changed ... I recall reading there's a rough 30 year periodicity for at or > cat 1 threat N of NYC latitude/coast... We had Bob in ' 91? ...plus, a cornucopia of residual threats that might sorta kinda argue for occurrence ( tho lame) via the lesser aggregate. Expectations are constant drama and dystopian or bust, I know ... Lol

You know ... we may also want to point out that by "guidance" we mean MOS/machine shit... I mean, the other stuff I pointed out is technically 'in the guidance' - both the Euro's 00z and this 12z NAM for that matter.

I'm jesus... 583 ?? hello - I keep mental notes on this sort of thing, and this is the 3rd time this year we've seen 580 touched in the hypsometry values in that grid, and that ties us with 2018... then and now, I've never seen that three different times over Logan spanning the prior 30 someodd years I've been engaging with those grid numbers intimately with lotion and a flash-light... Seriously though, and it's only 7/25 ...I'm wonder if I get four times and new personal record. But forget that.. .the Euro was over 22 C ...in fact almost 23.5 C in fractals Monday afternoon, and even went as high at 100 proper in its 2-meter for Tuesday ( interestingly enough....) but is only 96 at Logan Monday... but... I got to think that's correctable if the Euro's overall synopsis is correct in that 18z to 00z time range Monday afternoon. Basically, it seems in concert with the NAM... I just don't know why they are both holding 96 - interesting... May be, but the parametric layout supports 100 to 103 almost slam dunking -

I'm actually pretty astounded by the 12z NAM grid... ( FOUS) depiction for Monday. Seeing it put up hypsometric depths of 583 dm over KBOS/Logan is nothing shy of extraordinary - it may also be the highest I have ever seen that particular metric modeled for that location's geography and climate. The MET/machine numbers appear to be selling Monday short with 94 to 96 F across the breadth of guidance locales over SNE. That 240 to 260 deg wind direction under ceiling sigma RH values well < 50%, off a morning 12z T1 temperature already 26 C ( ...suggesting a low temperature not subtending 82 F - it helps the cross compare units ...) implied at typical warm climate nodes... with 20+ C at 850s over head ... all told, probably sends the 16z to 21z temperatures over hundred without much problem. I mean, Logan approaches 8pm later Monday under processed/mixing 583 dm thickness!! With a T1 to 32 C at both 18z and 00z, ... probably implies it was 34 C ( for a 39 C slope temp) ... at 4 to 6 pm... Paramters mount for memorable heat... after 6 hours of unadulterated open sky sun ... and wind direction pouring out of the city's dragon-anus ...there's no way it's less than 102 F ... circa 5:11 pm that afternoon over Rt 9 in Framingham, downtown cake--bake Boston or up and down I-95... It is also 48 to 60 hours away... so, we probably end up 97n .. once the model fills in the usual taint it can't see at this range... but, that's just the interpretation of that FOUS grid as is

Without some kind of super volcanism or extra terrestrial impact event nobody alive sees below normal decade in the next hundred years

I think crucially this/those vectors ( bold ..) were missing per this last run over with similar 850s ... This is a weird set up out there in that mid range with the Euro... it's really bringing a hydrostratic trough response over the top of almost no hypsometric cooling... It's very bizarre to see 18 to 21 C 850s arcing around the trough circumvallate...if not even creeping very warm air layer inside that curvature the way it is... It's like a hot trough - head scratch

“NW flow event” ?? haha lol. Is that like 6-8” of hail ending as drizzle

CT gets their better performers on either low LCL set ups, or when the shear is rotated around so that it’s WSW in llvs and NW mid... this year has been SSW

Mm.. wonder how these enhanced probability calls for a '38 type redux are rooted... I don't see it based upon super-synoptic hemispheric trends ... not even close. We have a central/mid-latitude CONUS ridge that keeps burgeoning and then sort of doing a hemispheric-scaled Kelvin-Hemholtz tumble-over... evidenced in the counter-balanced tendency to dive the wind field through the Martimes. Proobably need to review a crucial conceptual point about entities in the atmosphere? ... they move with the wind ... What about that above seasonality persistence sends a category 3 cane up abeam the EC headed for deforestation of VT - Now, ... it's not IMpossible to have an anomaly relative to the persistence above ...set up just in time... Shit happens... But, it seems the longitudinal flow/progressivity in the means is both trend, and has planetary super-synoptic scale motivators for being that way... Namely, the expanded HC seems to be expressing this summer... It is making for increased ambient velocities at mid levels and that doesn't really physically support meridian flow structures - like placing a negative hydrostatic anomaly over WV and sucking a cane up toward or into the NY Bite... Just in short, a ridge axis 90 to 80W that is sharply ablating from the NW along and E of 70 ... even though the GFS does so too much... in a lesser variation of the GFS ...still deflects and hooks seaward N of the Del Marva

TD

Oh well you know I’ve been bitching about GFS ablating ridges like some kind of cosmic scale grinder for the past three years frankly ha ha Ha but yeah. it’s been doing that it just seems to have a permanent barrier northwest flow between us and the Canadian maritimes and will just never get rid of it it’s almost like they parameterized the model to lock that there. Not to toot horns but I did warn people back in spring that the GFS was gonna be a real problem model for sniffing out heAt in New England and it’s been wrong about the last two heat waves because of that right as expected.

well...so, SPC echoes my thoughts above - whether they use other tools than the NAM or not...heh https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html "... Bowing line segments and clusters should be the dominant storm mode, with damaging wind gusts as the predominant severe threat. Deep-layer vertical shear decreases with southern extent, so the highest potential for more organized storms, and perhaps even a few supercells, exists from central PA into Upstate NY/Southern New England. In this area, the stronger vertical shear suggest slightly greater potential for hail and maybe even a tornado or two. Antecedent cloud cover and possibly a few showers could inhibit destabilization in the vicinity of the warm front, but the stronger shear still merits including this area in a 15% wind probability...." either way ...expansion of the SLIGHT area is warranted in my estimation as the general region still benefits from a theta-e stranded by only weak antecedent frontal tapestries ... and, now we're running 40 to 50 kt wind max over a sensy lapse rate... kind of a slam dunk... Throw in Lakefront and oreographic triggers and there we go.

wait is that making fun of a 'cool' run, or a 'warm' one...

Lots of 'rounding 90' s at Utah's source ... but the highs are probably 92 fated -

SPC obviously implements a variety of different tools to reveal risk areas that blah blah formulate their products, but ... just analyzing the NAM's last three cycles of trends for the basics ... the better of the two days is clearly Wednesday if using that guidance. You know back in the day ... a little known model factoid of excruciatingly nerdy tedium was that the then "ETA" model was a spectacular tool for "convection initialization" ... Oh, perhaps not down at the discrete level of what exact CU tower glaciated... but, it tended to perform well inside of 30 ... 36 hours, by depicting QPF distribution ...then convective attribute verification took place. 'Talking mid 1990s in the Plains ...but that was in general true. The ETA being the ancestral root of the NAM ( ...and notwithstanding it passed through the WRF bad-idea man-handling years too...), one could only guess if that esoteric obscurity still is true? I could see it being the case, and say... no one including SPC's even is aware of it any longer...Shit, considering the present day work force is headed up by my generation of slackers and cheaters?? Not much confidence such an obscurity even floats off-the-cuff conversation but ...I'm also an assholey cynic for recreation, too. Heh. But then again, the general dumbing down of higher order intellect running the world got us a narcissist, if not a patented sociopath into the most powerful sociological position ever to man a post of authority spanning 750,000 years of Human evolution, so... the evidence is damning; we live in an increasingly automated systemic modernization of conveniences ... addling the population-fluid into an unchallenged soup of e-zombies... Or, they're all geniuses ... tru dhat - Firstly, just as a personal experience ... back-to-back severe days in New England are exceedingly rare. The title of this thread is suspect and shamelessly wanton of bun-dom... Why? there are varied textured reasons for that. Just in a general mean, the synoptics that are needed for convection anywhere really are fragile ... It's just so uniquely favorable to load up those variables in the Plains it deludes us into thinking it's easy...That region is just perfectly designed geomorphologically to feed that - the Earth backing that region is like enabling.. like entitlement. Babbling... but the NAM's last three runs paint as though a right exit region of a 500 mb jetlett encroache upon the upper MA and SNE/CNE after 18z Wednesday ... consistently. Meanwhile, there is instra-model contention on handling the brambled mangled twisted pressure pattern from central NJ to S ME during Wed afternoon, with mottled light QPF nodes per run... That's pretty easily interpretable as a warm frontal diffusion and trouble in the guidance with that particular lead environment ..but I like that! You want light S tendencies along a diffused warn front, because... if we get some sky lights and warm the lower levels, we end up with SB CAPE under/within a positive direction shear...and then accelerate mid levels from the W..?. Our bulk shear thru deeper 0-6km over the top of the 0-3km SRH along warm frontal intrusion ... That looks like super cell potential to me SE PA to N. NJ... and probably bowing linear rip in CT and MA to southern VT ... It's not like a high risk or anything...but that 50kts of jet nosing in over substantive heating...with a lead side diffused warm boundary lifting toward CNE during the day ... plus, the hydrostatic layout ( heights) show some cyclonic orientation as well as a smidge of lowering toward and after 21z west to E ... This will probably then process the atmosphere out ...the next day may see late blooming activity as the southern end of the vestigial trough sharpens and we see the cyclonic curved flow accelerate again through 50 kts east of ALB around and post 21z on Thursday, but CAPE and previous day... it could be mechanical forcing.. Of course...that's what I'm seeing in the NAMs general last three runs... Who knows what extra-double, top-secret surreptitious convective-salacious sexy instrumentation they use that we don't even know about so that they look better than the increasingly tool-savvy public..

Looks like the NAM is backing off the frontal incursion ... allows another chance at 90 tomorrow. Actually turns Logan’s wind back south in shorter order too. Euro’s been hitting at less sag

Right plus ... I was making a pour assumption that Brian was comparing the 12z intervals. Lol Anyway I’m not sure I buy that solution anyway ... it seems it may be a buckled outlier of the EPS ... which the latter doesn’t have to be right of course. But convention dictates caution ... it’s been trending higher hydrostatic arc north of Lake superior and I think it’s trying to signal an evolution towards an over the top or flop heat delivery… It’s not like this season hasn’t been set up for one with all the continental tucking that we’ve been doing over the Maritimes seems like a northwest delivery is bound to happen sooner or later… Just a hypothesis

Heh... It may be 12z being the cool limb of the diurnal cycle with that 850 mb thermal rendition... I noticed that leading up to this recent warm bout, that the Euro was routinely warmer at 00z than 12z ... not always... ..say, 60 ... 70% of the transition comparison. I think the 850mb "breathes" so to speak, like it expands when the BL is is bursting into the gradient level...then, it recedes back to a slightly cool rest state at night...etc. But this run paints like there's simultaneous oddities probably owing to Euro biases... that being one, the other is that D8.5 sudden seasonal change over Ontario with those mechanics so powerful it induces an actual orbital wobble ... is probably it's penchants for doing that sort of bullshit in that time range... Heh, I guess the bottom line is ...there's heat on the charts and since we don't normally successfully get it up here without the Earth figuring out a way to f-it up and fail somehow, it's going to be muted one way or the other to pick a way -

That's a good climo point actually ... I forgot about that tendency Brian yeah. It may be our home-grown 'dry-line' ... where we lead the mechanics by a d-slope when the wind turns W or something - causing some lead frontal environmental sweep out... Wiz' can prolly attest to this but I've seen the belly of those troughs ignite and steal 11 am CBs seaward and then the front comes through with a half-masted hard-on tops later in the afternoon with a gutted WW out of SPC...oops ...

Mm .. not sure that's a cold front. As far as the geophysical analysis that is employed by theoretical Meteorology ... the front is still positioned west of ALB. I am seeing though a tendency for 1 to 3 F temp shed with a bit of a DP reduction that's diffused along an axis that bifurcates CNE/SNE N-S though so... not saying folks aren't detecting 'some'thing... I "think" or wonder if there is a weak sort of smearing outflow pool that's in the process of mixing out ..left over from the eastern Great Lakes convection last eve/overnight... That could be confused ...

That's so dystopian melodramatic ... can't they just say it was historically hot and list stats ? lol -

If you can keep the marine contamination from mixing in ...you'll be 94 - that'd be my guess... Did y'all look at anything other than pulling the curtains and seeing a gray sky and dismissing lol ... The entire heavens are superb for heating as clearing rockets east ...it's already peeled away in ~ EEN-Willimantic and that line is moving some 40 mph. With zero change in the nature or ability for temperature rise and only awaits the insolation tsunamis I bet most folks make 90. but we'll see...

Wow, what an inferno in the D6 to 10 operational Euro, huh - First, there's a possibility that we extend heat wave with aoa 90 all week really given a Euro evolution... With a frontalysis rotting ...only managing to stall bifurcating the 'peninsula' of SNE from PWD to NYC ...that is not a very effectually cooling the medium. We do see the very warmest 850 layer does suppress...but we have lingering 16 to 18 C paralleling the flow at 850 ...up underneath the 700 and 500 mb that are also laminar... and that's not really allowing for cleaner front suppression...