Typhoon Tip

Yeah I was ...but, it could be true in both case, right - It's still beyond D 5 ... I'm/we're talking low probability for excitement here. Hopefully folks know this is just conjecture over what needs to sort of modulate to get to that excitement, more so than predictive determinism. That needs to be parsed out because given enough open philosophical discussion, people begin to conflate the philosophy with actual forecasts, I've sensed/noticed.. It tends to then send folks reeling in a kind of 'extra special sense of personal betrayal' when "things don't work out" ...because ....maaaaybe they shouldn't have 'depended' on said conjecture to begin with quite as prophetically as they did. Even if they don't know they are too...interesting... Anyway, also -EPO ( which that much I am more convinced and prepared to forecast is likely at > 50% hopes and dreams at this point ) onsets sometimes do favor the initial hemispheric fist punching S ... WEST of ORD. That tends to torque the flow ephemerally S/faux warm along the Eastern seaboard. It's probably the systemic sort of roots of why and where the adage, "first it gets warm, then it gets cold, BOOM" comes from. The cold lays down continental west and from then onward .. as it presses E with gradual lengthening of R-wave, the ambient baroclinic zone spawns storms the run up along it ...each successive one gradually shifts E ...sometimes this whole transition takes place quickly...sometimes over longer periods. That makes using climo stupid and offers the migraines. The thing about this...as the shifting b-c zone and governing favorable cyclogen mechanics move along, they have better productive zones for storm genesis, typically g-Lakes and Eastern/west Atlantic, because those regions have the other environmental factors favoring that are broader than just atmospheric. Speaking of gestalt. Like not having to contend with a mountain wall being in the way of cyclonic motion in the E... and add reason here:

Euro looks ( to me ..) as though it's battling it's own bias tendency for > 5 D modeling behavior on this 00z run last night ( operational )... That wave it passes N of the OV next week, still has a chance to take a slightly more southerly route, ...like the 00z GFS ironically... which with it's bias, would seem to fit the Euro's depiction better. Anyway, the Euro may be digging heights too prodigiously in the broader scope/'gestalt' of the flow out west, which concomitantly rises the same large spacial circumvallate in more tendency rather than actual observation, back east. Ha... It's kind of like creating an arena in the east for "least excuse imaginable" more so than executing it. You can just tell it has a bad attitude about NJ model lows.. Seriously, if it alleviates the flow just subtly enough out west, than the ridge in the E doesn't get that kick-back and force the S/W on that more N route "as much"... It's critical, because there are a few members and recent runs, that had more of NJ model plausibility with that thing. The 00z GFS has flashing over to S/S+ for four hours worth mid day next Thursday.

If the GFS and Euro are right ... Sunday is not the warmer day there. That's a contaminated/dirty misty warm sector with light rains and failed convection on radar, with abhorrently elevated DPs ( probably 57 -ish) for this time of year. The products that are supposed to hone in on those metrics may or may not show that, but experience alone...I've seen that look before and the mild day would be Saturday ...when less contaminated warm sector flow is well mixed and b-layers are about as tall as they can get at this time of year. If we get > 75% RH at cloud heights and mist, and 68 F anywhere around here on Sunday, we've definitely CC thresheld and you ain't getting winter ever again Hyperbolic kidding of course

That may be true in the spatial sense of it/orientation but ... the ESRL numerology/bar graphs argued this was beginning yesterday, too - just sayn'. The former observation type - if that's how that was determined of the GEFs, yesterday ... - may have yet hid that onset. But I posted about the ESRL making some nods, then

The better response to that is ... now - now is what can go wrong. It can't go more wrong than right now In other words, any other reality, if change is afoot, is going to be more right - so his statement is logically baseless... in addition to being purely rooted some weird resentment that it's not summer ( we guess... ); or in this case, resenting that appeal being discussed.

Fwiw - the ESRL are a 'little' more robust with -EPO ... One thing I'm noticing, the MJO from the NCEP camp is quite powerful and roaring through phase 5 and 6 over the next 10 days, which is a warm signal for eastern N/A at mid latitudes... It may be that the MJO wave its self, along with it's forcing, are in conflict with the attempted(ing) changes of the N arc of the Pacific. The Euro has a robust wave, but about half the magnitude, and collapses it mid way through Phase 6 ...which in total sort of "synergistic" consideration may be allowing it see more of a dominant WPO-EPO modulation on the our side of the Hemisphere .. comparing to the neggie wave interference of the GEFs. As an afterthought ...maybe that explains some of the GEFs/GFS progressive bias at times ...it tends to wave interference at large scales/integrals ... which would tend to send things on more W-E corrections..

We bandy the euphemism 'nuke' around but man, that GGEM next week ... that is a bomb

That's how you run a -EPO downloading ...

Yeah I was thinking that too ... it might get a cold load into that tuck region but does it have to be 4 degrees above absolute zero ... christ. Might make the optics of that more believable if it wasn't gradating the temperatures so extreme across that interface like that... I dunno - but we've seen plenty of BDs in your hood is similar set up - I think the extremeness in the GFS is tempting me to 86 the whole idea but that would be short-sighted on my part.

I have a feelin' ... this is gonna be a fun f'n run

Probably makes more sense, one way or the other, to either back off on the boob of cold dangling idea, with that 43 F gradient across 5 miles ( ) -vs just having less cold there .. if being more amped gets that done. There's probably a reason why history doesn't have that set up: either it's that rare, or... it can't do that.

The 'wtf' for me isn't the circumstance... it's that we expect any scenario where that bulb of dense air just sits there like that in January of all times while 62 F laze faire flag wavers taunt by and by ... Some times that happens ... said never. I wonder if so though. Like, has it ever been 17 F in PWM and 61 in Lowell... Could be a first ? interesting

Also, looks like somewhere in the area of 4.5 to 5 members of the GEF support the 00z GGEM's idea of something to watch D7/8 next week... One of which ends up like this, and the previous panel shows this clocked eastern New England - P009

That's definitely deeper signaled than the recent ERSL's ...which frankly, they didn't so much reflect an actual -EPO as much as 'appeared' to merely pull down the EPO by shear numerical wave spacing in having that ungodly -PNA ripping underneath. The latter - in other words - was stressing the domain space of the EPO just because it was/is so strong... We see this in the shared domain space of the AO and NAO all the time ... The AO tanks and the NAO drops from positive to modestly negative - that's usually an indication the NAO isn't 'really' neggiee so much as just having part of it's domain space weighted down by the flop over in geographical area..etc..etc.. However, this image above is clearly not that... We're not pulling shit when we're talking -2.5 SD spanning five days ... That's a legit signal. It'll be interesting to see if the ESRL's variation on these reflects - also - the change. Useful comparison for future referral too -

Not sure who's said what over the last page or so ... so all credit where it is due, but the 00z GFS operational run ( and few priors that I can recall ) have been more aggressive with -EPO than it's ensemble means, but now the mean "might" be catching on just looking at the individual GEF members. As rumor has it the EPS has been showing changes in the Pacific in the extended for a few days now.. . The 00z Euro is hitting at a middling robust blocking ridge over Alaska. Given that these more sophisticated operational versions of disparate model types are nodding over that index switching modes, these are not altogether bad operational indicators for cold. I'm interested in ESRL's EPO progs from 00z because just eye-balling the GEF members individually, it does appear to be more of them situated blocking nodes and or ridge axis at higher latitudes of N-NE Pacific arc. The take away there/mean is that they actually have it, not so much any given particulars that are unlikely to be correct. We'll cross the orientation bridge when the time comes. But, from D4.5 right out to the end of the D13 ..that entire period is now rather robustly -EPO in the operational 00z, and 06z GFS, so those rumors of the EPS Pacific are not 'entirely' alone. In the dailies, the GFS has been signaling a whopper cold whack out there around ( now ) 204 or so hours.. but total smear time is probably a 3.5 day stint at < 520 dm thickness.. with some nadir temps that are dropping steam plumes. Yet the robuster ridge(ings) over the Alaskan sector are still out there in the la-la range of that model. I like it when 564 dm centers over Fairbanks! There's likely to be a few renditions of mass loading into the Canadian shield, with on and off disturbance orientations/existence but, the dearth of bona fide winter patterning is apparently on a shortened lease here.

sounds like the same conversation that broke out before the sleet bomb a couple weeks back ...

Legit squalls but they also appeared in part to be oreographically enhanced when they were getting going earlier.

It's spring ... why the hell not -

May as well add Friday to that, too ... well, perhaps not "torch" whatever that definitely means, but, that looks like over-top deep layer well mixed continental flow at 12z poised and ready to rasp through any decoupling and expose the surface to dry adiabats... and with 850s already +5 down in SNE... ho man - smoke' em if you got em

Funny you put it this way ... I was just thinking over lunch how this is starting to just look like a warm-sector cold fropa period. Yup... It could still modulate the other way, but if the Euro's not biting it is probably K'o ... Gee, I wonder if convection starts getting interesting - ha

Models overall have been inconsistent about the orientation and weight of polar higher pressure over Ontario, wobbling it around east than west, when expanding the 'recency' of the runs to four or so days. Just over the last 2.5 day's worth of cycles? Sure. These appear stalwartly consistent and that feature's repositioning even slightly west makes a big difference, ...because as we know, given 1% impetus to move or tumble cold around the north end of the eastern cordillera's topographic/geography end, will free fall and turn that 1% into 500% over achievement... I guess in this situation and considering the tenor of it all and where we've been... the recent runs probably fit that better ? Unfortunate for winter enthusiasts... but, there is still a little time to see that small adjustment back E with the ballast of the higher pressure's orientation, and if that happens and that cold is given any impetus to move south, it will do so at least excuse imagined. It's like all or nothing because of our kick-back from geography/geology around here... It either fails miserably to get cold, or if cold can at all win, it will tend to bust the models.

Not sure if the following is applicable buuut, January thaws were almost dependable in my youth. There is a rhyme and reason to why there's an impression in the the general lore of Humanity for the occurrence. It may not take place every year, but, patterns in general tend not to last indefinitely. That duh, is A. B, when they change, they tend to either reset, in which the same paradigm re-asserts its self, or, changes to something new. Either circumstance is technically a pattern change - just because the original character recommences, doesn't alter the fact. In the former circumstance, if the reset is a cold to cold change, those will tend to be warm(er) during the intervening period of time; which can be variable in length depending upon what is going on in the entire hemisphere at that time. The experience can be profoundly offsetting - particularly this becomes important when acclimation factor get involved. Going from highs always in the 30s and lows around 20 (which it hasn't been ..I'm just making examples here ), then, surging to 54/44 for four or five days ..even if misty, will seem like quite the thaw. May even turn the Earth to mud and remove snow pack. My fondest winter of memory was 1995-1996 for loading cold and snow ..more so it was the latter comparative to climate. Even that one had a mammoth mid season thaw that came on around the ends of January. But again...this isn't every year. Some years the reset goes from cold to warm and your skunted... Or, you don't get a "thaw" per se, because it was never cold to begin with...but the new paradigm finally does freeze and snow. ... I would say, on balance, most years ... just spit-ballin' from memory, if it gets cold and snowy early ( like pre xmass) ... you're more likely to suffer a thaw, simply by fact that usually you can't get more than 45 days before a pattern has to refit or move onto something new, and those seams time sort of mid January .. I'm sure someone with stats and patience can drill it down. But, we had a nice -EPO cold burst on our side of the hemisphere in early December... and that waned...to sort of a non-committal pattern really... and now, we move warm. As others have noted, it doesn't appear protracted? But it's kind of a battle between the American and foreign ensemble tools in that regard, because as of last night, the American side still wants to Aprilize the country.

Yo.. As a primer, the idea of 588 gp heights over Miami is more for a latter mid and extended range correcting effort. Sometimes the models attempt deeper cyclogenesis from the midriff of the Nation/conus latitudes ...through and off the Eastern Seaboard, with/while they sustain height compression already in place and throughout said deepening. A clue as to whether compression is there to an extent where inhibition, and probably correction in future guidance, is partially identifiable a few ways: prior to the S/W passing east of ~110 W, are there a lot of isohypses aligned parallel between Tennessee and Miami; are the winds in that vicinity moving faster than ~ 35kts; are the heights over Miami ( as a rough rule) exceeding 582 dm. It's really sort of a combination of these observations in how to use them .. have to kind of 'juggle'/interpretive. Sometimes one can just tell that S/W can "dig" and amplified, doing so even when heights are high-ish down south, because (say) the previous two panels might have shown heights receding ... the velocities relaxing... etc. Some times these pan-systemic changes are taking place "just in time" ... It's not just whether there is a ridge in the west, either ( btw ), which I have heard/read as though others appear more reliant? Heights can ridge in the west and be in the coveted +PNAP flow construct, yet .. the compression in the SE is unrelenting... There may be a storm in that paradigm, but it's not likely to attain as deep a system as it could otherwise ... the reason for that is mathematical and physical, and cannot be argued. When the flow is excessively fast, the S/W wind max, itself, is not delta(v) against the tapestry, and without that differential, there are less "responsive"/mass conservation restoring jets... --> weaker storms. Can't put it any simpler than that. But also, they'll tend to move fast. Folks need to understand...this is about modulation along curves and spectrum, too, like anything in nature.. - no one is saying no bombs. Whether x-y-z region gets a-b-c event is all about compensating anomalies, and if they are sufficient ... events will happen. It's just that when the flow is fast everywhere, S/W mechanical power is being offset. It's a matter of what tax. So taking all that in ... In the situation you have here, that is nearer in time for one. Usually nearer terms lend credence as to whether a given scenario's anomalous factors are believable or not. In this case, adding to that credence, the ridging in the S-SE is believable; I would think first and foremost that is true, for having existential footing in multi-faceted reasons - ha. I mean both seasonal and extra-seasonal/scale in nature, that sucker's for real. I feel even if the EPO does finally shed numbers, we may end up with a compression form of the +PNAP..so... you know...have to deal. But in your loop, the trough/R-wave positioning is such that it wants to trough in the west, anyway, so the S/W ( which is probably the short answer to your question ) isn't really getting "squeezed" through the east by the models. It's sort of riding up along a path of least resistance so probably should remain a fast moving system as is modeled, reasonably intact.

Normally I'd try to argue that's a transitive error put forth by a model that likes to descend heights ( typically ) to prodigiously immediately through the west...such that it would amp ridging down stream more ...leads to further west track and there we go. Not so sure in this case.. As I was just writing at too much length for the twistispheric raging foment of profound intellectual elites ... this isn't the average run-o'-the-mill obnoxious winter-time S-SE ridge rearing it's one-eyed monsterous prospect on the butts of winter enthusiastic hopefuls here. That's anchored in the HC shit ... I mean, either is still compensate - able ... but, not when they are super-imposed ( I suspect ) which is getting me to actually lean toward the absurd, and actually think it's possible to over come a SE Canada high pressure in f'um January! wow Actually, in fairness to the model, it's flat weakened that +PP featuring up there and also, appears to be 'angling' the trajectory of the contributing confluence more ENE in orientation, which could mean less surface N flow... oy.