Typhoon Tip

More or less.. yes ... But it's relative to season - I admit to my human condition in such matters. Take 2015, February: ...I was tickled pink. It was fascinating... both scientifically and experiential ... rarities and extremes dispensed like pezz candies. I didn't want that to end... In fact, right into March it stayed frigid. It was as though the Pacific "short wave budget" simply ran dry ... we had surplus cold with no more storms, otherwise we coulda been bombs away clear to the ides... But, as it were, the snow siege part of all that pretty much shut down for season around that first week... In no time in the span did I share in the the point of view I am in right now... Frankly, anyone that wants this winter and it's particular flavor to continue must get off on eating shit!

Yeah... GFS went ahead and undid four cycles of southward correction with that lead warm sector for the end of the week ... and went blithely right back to the previous dynamic of heralding GW to James Bay haha ... Yet, it still tries to implode a secondary bomb in the middle of the quasi-barotropic region out ahead of the main cfront...? Huh. weird. Anyway, it's too bad... The mid and U/A features are correcting south given time ... This run at least stayed course with that particular aspect ... It's just the that lower troposphere man .. it is such a f dumpster fire. Boy, this winter can't end fast enough for me... I dunno at this point I'm ready for it to all go away. Lets call it a day and start looking forward to the new season - for those of us capable of doing so... There'll always be next winter. I get it that March can be x-y-z and I'm sure I'll knock back a shot of hypocrisy if it does but ... I ain't missin' it y'all .. We're good for 1 decent spring in 5 ... Problem is, it's getting harder to determine that because these maddening extremes keep skewing what is and is not a bad spring. Like, for me...last year was a donkey bj ... But, the year before, we had a week in the 70s in March and capped it with an 84 ... But April went on to scrape knees for donkeys ... The last rim to rim decent spring I remember is 2012 ... or maybe the year we got to 90 on Easter? I dunno, feel like statistically the "law of averages" owes us. heh

You won't find it, per se ... I was referring to the Norwegian Cyclone Model ... It has a distinct array of steps it "sequences" thru - ... Will knew what I meant in that case. Basically, step 1 ... stationary boundary ... step two, stationary boundary starts to kink, with warm frontogenesis on the east side, and cold on the west... step three, cyclone takes on a more commonly known structure, with a warm arc on the right, and cold sector on the left, with concomitant warm front and cold front demarcating... step four, maturation, and the cyclone enters the occluded phase. Cyclones don't always go exactly by that sequence of events but that is the gist of the NCM

Yep! ...it was... ( don't get these charts as quickly as y'all ) But, that synoptic evolution for week's end/weekend is definitely in flux. Bizarre looking low pressures that are highly inverted in nature ...with warmth and rain wrapping west over top, and cold and snow and CCB around the southern arc of the vortex .. I have never seen work out that way when modeled at this range. Invariably, when you see that ... you are seeing a situation that is in the process of modulating. 1888 had that look for a while in the reanalysis ... but even there it collapsed dynamically, and Boston finally ended up with a foot. By and large, lows don't go through the Norwegian sequencing maintaining that sturcture... It's more likely that the models will come around to instantiating the necessary pressures/sectors in future runs and I wouldn't be shocked if the N side ends up more blue-bomby isothermal.

yeah I agree ... this is not really a lesson we should collectively even need reviewing at this point...

Bingo! You partially answered your previous question - You asked why in the context of 'what would it gain' ? ...Well, denying man's contribution thus allows man's various constituencies to keep doing what whatever it is they want. In most case, which is to make money - that's why, but in second place behind that... not having to change their way of life. The only reason why the denial, "dirty money" payout phenomenon/ mechanism works is because climate change is a transcendental (for lack of better word...) specter. One stands on a railroad track ... They hear the iron begin to whir under their feet. They see the smoke rising around the bend, ...Those are tangible indications of a threat to their well being. Moving off the track ensues with a judicious and pragmatically fast response. Global warming? No one can sees the train ... Oh, they read about heat waves and desiccated land, warming oceans... but the actual world around them bears no immediate impression of their being a problem. Humanity doesn't see reality through the same lens as scientist. Humanity doesn't see nature and reality through the same lens as even enthusiast who chose to research on their own ... and are reasonably better versed in this crap. The total bastion of those in the know ... does not compare on the same scale as the enormous mass of people that don't know. And with all that potential ballast ... all one has to say to garner momentum in their favor, is any thing that 'sounds' intelligent that not only counter-acts the moral necessity to act ... but allows said ballast to continue in their present way of life, and so... dimming(adding) to empirical data actually can motivate a desired response.. I have a circle of friends in the Harvard and MIT communities ...in the tenured professorship rank and file of higher academia ...and they all concur: the issue with GW and anthropogenic causality is a sociological one more so than anything else. There needs to be some way to make the threat tangible to the corporeal senses ... because from Mt Vesuvius to Katrina and all scales in between, threats don't mean much to common people and their heads of state.

Well... okay... then it's still not a loss and some saving is happening (haha) seriously though...if we front end 4-8" across the area...then transition to PL/ZR...that snow isn't going anywhere. But I know what you mean.

mmm 'pends on what one means by 'day saving' If snow? ...that ship sailed 10 days ago. I don't think other than that one historic bomb run of the 18z GFS four days ago, this ever looked like a snow storm. That said, the amount of secondary being depicted is saving though - whether the models 'see' the boundary layer or not, the low skirting just S of RI is going to slam the door shut on just liquid penetrating N of the CT/RI/MA nexus. The wind NW of PVD is going to be N below about 920 mb or so, regardless of what the models are indicating with those pressure pattern curves. That's ZR... So, if by saving we mean "just rain" versus something else? It's a pretty good savior as is -

NAM: the whole structure ...all attributes ... "looks" like it is corrected south. Pressure pattern to ptypes and frontal positions...all trended south, some more subtle than others, but south. I think as Brian pointed out it is a bit slower... but, I also see the primary mechanics as weaker, so the secondary is not being mechanically cleaved into the cold as liberally on this run. Upon digesting the overnight runs with the late week thing ...I'm beginning to wonder if that is going to be a requirement during this particular quasi-zonal pattern, where late mid range features have a polar biases that need adjusting S as they get into shorter range. The GFS' various cycles going back some 10 clicks are pretty demonstratively correcting the barotropic region of the late week system S and along with...the parental low ..though not as much. interesting. But, part of the polar-ward bias (if so) could very well be facilitated by systems being too amplified and having to owe to the "stretched" nature of the field, they tend to correct flatter in nearer terms.

Heh... I suggested yesterday the end week evolution was in flux. I realize there is an extra-double top secret unpopularity, auto-pilot trashing of the parallel GFS thing that goes around here.. but that model did make a funky whole scale shift south with the total wave-space ... 18z. Personally ... I didn't/don't see why it could not do that. Just because we have consensus, doesn't make that consensus right - you know this...just sayn'. At D7, consensus can be coincidental more so than physically precise. So the last four cycles of the GFS, click-click-click-click ...and the whole structure with that evolution repositions farther SE each time. As is...both it and it's native parallel runs across the 00z and 06z solutions, show that the deeper layer (mid u/a) wave space and quasi-closed low are now already reasonably well position relative to climatology, for redevelopment/Miller-B... But as you've very saliently noted (...or maybe it was Chris?), merely not having the BL forcing with cold/CAD'ing it ends up being one of those bizarrely inverted structural lows that wraps the warm air and rain on the N arc of the lower levels, trying to accommodate a cold conveyor wrapping around the the SW/S arc. I got new for folks... that structure on a deeper mid-range model is almost always a signature for a solution in flux - lows so rarely do that unless they are cut-off weakening gyres in April, and the quadrants are pallid and showery at best. That's not what this is, with an absolute super-nova of mid and upper air mechanics to work with. Boy...I'll tell ya ...if this thing did have llv frontal slopes to work with? Whole winter in one storm, period. So, here's what I'm thinking is possible... both the GFS and the parallel run have a quasi-convectively induced 'hook' low formulating somewhere astride the Carolinas ... as the power wheel of the mid levels is approaching the cordillera of NY/PA latitudes... The heights down over the Gulf and Florida and SW Atlantic Basin do something unusual between Wed-Fri relative to present winter trends: the gradient actually slackens some. The winds drop some 15 or so knots and the spacing between isohypses widen just a little. Those crucially are indications that there is compression available there, and troughs are thus more able to actually dig and not summarily absorb/shear. - this whole factor is under-the-radar most likely... But, we may see this pinwheel deepening sub 522 dm! as it moves over or even in the case of the parallel, under LI ... effectively capture the hook low and ... "legitimizing" it. Thing is... that hook/convective low may not be real, no .. but, the general idea of a kink point on the trailing/leading cfront as it collocates along the EC or off shore is certainly plausible in my mind, and perhaps a correction. Seeing the EPS at 06z is a red flag not to ignore the potential...

I see… The GFS is doing what the Nam did. It's got the primary further east but instead of committing more of a secondary just uses that/more mechanical power to be erode out cold air more which is not going to happen I don't think

GFS looks weaker with the primary too 60 hours not sure if it's actually weaker or just slower or both. I think Will mentioned the 18z euro was slower

It's wrong it's a little bit more intense with the secondary but ironically uses that to carve into the cold air so Kinda offsets… Probably a solution in flux still. northern Maine looks like gets hammered

It's crazy… Has almost the entire state of Pennsylvania pellet rattling east of Pittsburgh

It looks like the Nam is weaker with a primary and a bit colder up in the CAD region 60 hrs

The GFS parallel run was so intense with the front wall ( and slightly colder at that ...) it looks like 8" solid over much of the region then sleet and ZR to .25" accretion ends as 33 drizzle. That would be major impact event considering the crank up time is about 2pm on a weekday ... In that evolution, places going from virga and flurries to sub 1/4 mi vis blindness inside of a half hour... It also did some weird funky way correction south with the latter event next weekend, ... crucially in that solution, no lead side polar surface ridging ... ... Not saying I put much stock in that solution but, sufficed it is to say, there's time to modulate that bad boy. I know I know - f' off. No one's biting.. .But I chose objectivity -

Have seen this sort of layout before ... In fact, I distinctly recall seeing a tornado warning one time actually inside a blizzard warning ... The tornadic supercell strafed by and two hours later ... 45 mph N inland gales with RS flipping to S+ and temperature falling like a nympathic prom queen were going to turn the air to milk.

the pattern being so elongated (anomalous) like that ...with narrow latitude waves racing along ... the spatial-temporal layouts per panel should be taken with a heavier dose of incredulity. We got outside sliders along California while a contiguous broad trough is loaded down wind with s/waves... It's a very unstable look. Talk about buck-shot. Seems pretty ripe for error Not that anyone asked but ... I think the later Tuesday and then Friday wave spaces are essentially correct; but as to the details ...? meh. Particularly in the latter case, as presently laid out ...not something one should be 'disappointed' or 'happy' with one way or the other.

I mean it's sooo close to really committing to that secondary... For the secondary's sake, if those 500 mb jet mechanics can nose a bit closer to the Del Marva there.. it'd really take off.

As opposed to someone in a "great mood" telling someone else they can be a total asshole sometimes. How in the f! does "c'mon ..." equate to asshole? I get it - welcome to the hoi polloi

I'm a big fat hypocrite when it comes to the 'retention' thing... I don't care until my maxes are approaching, then I dial in a bit more. Shy of that? Don't give a poop. In fact, I'm entering the time of year where it can snow 20" in a fascinating bomb, and if it's 70 F the next day, I'm good with that. I've never been able to sustain more than 40" on the level... the impetus there: sustain. Once in 1996, and twice since ... The latter one in 2015, the snow was so light and gossamer, do to the obscenely cold temperatures, that the pack its self kept compressing down under its own weight. One of the reasons by I disrespect that incredible stretch ... well, "disrespect" is too heavy - more like ... mar the panache of it. Basically, we had 48" at greatest imby, when of those apex storms ended. But the next day, in 7 F cold, it was down to 40" ... interesting. Something about that 36 to 40" range where I wonder if you have to have something particularly rare or strange to sustain numbers bigger. That's a lot of weight, compression may in fact kick in there - but I'm not snow-pack structural engineer, just guesstimating - Back in 2001 or perhaps 2002... I recall a night at 'The Mad Raven' on Rt 20 in Waltham. I lived down off Moody street back then - man... I'm taken there nostalgically like a favorite song at the moment. Anyway, the usual... cigarettes and pints, with a shot of whiskey, and I don't know how it came up but this fellow was from Nova Scotia ... He pulled out some wallet pictures of snow, so high, that the his driveway was walled off by some 10 or 12' ... yes, feet! He said it was like the snowiest year up that way to date... which may or may not be true over cigarettes, pints and whiskey but you know how quaff goes.

Yeah... I don't subscribe to paid sites... or work for any organization that allows me to see the broader pallet of Euro products but from what they toss out for free, it doesn't seem like you can get through that solution without at least some snow... And, I'd add that said snow doesn't melt off by merely going to liquid, either. That would snow to roaring sleet ending as freezing drizzle NW of Willamic CT to BOS approximate line. Sort of correcting there a bit too -

Okay... let it go - I didn't believe you at the time.. why is that a big f'n ordeal for you. lord

I betcha this is a situation where if you want a cold solution ...a -NAO D.. Straight back-log would be more directly helpful. Because that trough probably woudn't be able to rotate up into SE Canada and might be forced S.

That a 72 hour Euro panel is amazing looking... seeing that sharp trough in Missouri, with that 1040 high sitting squarely in its path up in eastern Ontario/Quebec like that.